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Turkey: Business Tendency Survey and Real Sector Confidence Index -March 2017

IM Research
By IM Research
4 years ago
Turkey: Business Tendency Survey and Real Sector Confidence Index -March 2017

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  1. Statistics Department CONTENTS PAGE NUMBER Montly Responses 1 Real Sector Confidence Index 2 QUESTIONS How has your production developed over the past 3 months ? It has... 3 How do you expect your production to develop over the next 3 months? It will... 3 Do you consider your current stock of finished products to be...? 3 How have your overall orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... 4 How have your domestic orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... 4 How have your export orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... 4 Do you consider your current overall order books to be...? 5 Do you consider your current domestic order books to be...? 5 Do you consider your current export order books to be...? 5 How many months of production are assured by your current overall order books ? (*) Considering your current order books and the expected change in demand over the coming months, how do you assess your current production capacity? The current production capacity is… (*) Capacity Utilization Rate (%) What main factors are currently limiting your production? Rank according to degree of importance. (% Share) (*) How do you expect your overall orders to develop over the next 3 months? They will... 6 6 6 6 7 How do you expect your domestic order books to develop over the next 3 months? They will... 7 How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 3 months? They will... 7 How do you expect your firm's total employment to change over the next 3 months? It will… 8 Compared to the last 12 months, how do you expect your fixed investment expenditure to change over the next 12 months? It will... Your opinion about the general course of business in your industry, compared to previous month. 8 How has your average unit cost changed over the past 3 months? It has... 9 How do you expect your average unit cost to change over the next 3 months? It will... How do you expect your domestic market selling prices to change over the next 3 months? They will... How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 3 months? They will... How has your competitive position on the domestic market developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) How has your competitive position on foreign markets inside the EU developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) How has your competitive position on foreign markets outside the EU developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) What is your expectation for inflation (producer prices) rate over the next twelve months ? (Weighted Average) (%) 9 How do you expect the short term Turkish Lira credit interest rate to change over the next three months? It will... (*) These indicators are produced quarterly (in January, April, July and October). 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11
  2. BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEY RESPONSES RESPONSES 2800 Statistics Department PARTICIPANTS 2600 2400 2200 2000 2082 2081 2095 2098 2016-10 2016-11 2016-12 2094 2096 2017-02 2106 2017-01 2113 2016-09 2016-05 2116 2016-08 2104 2016-07 2128 2016-06 2118 2016-04 1600 2016-03 1800 2115 1400 1200 2017-03 1000 BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEY MONTHLY RESPONSES MARCH 2017 S E C T O R S (Nace Rev.2) Participants Responses Response Rate (%) 83.8 10 Manufacture of food products 272 228 11 Manufacture of beverages 17 15 88.2 12 Manufacture of tobacco products 5 5 100.0 13 Manufacture of textiles 341 267 78.3 14 Manufacture of wearing apparel 236 181 76.7 15 Manufacture of leather and related products 39 32 82.1 16 Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture 48 41 85.4 17 Manufacture of paper and paper products 79 58 73.4 18 Printing and reproduction of recorded media 35 28 80.0 19 Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products 8 8 100.0 20 Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products 91 69 75.8 21 Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations 23 19 82.6 22 Manufacture of rubber and plastic products 153 116 75.8 23 Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products 279 228 81.7 24 Manufacture of basic metals 115 109 94.8 25 Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 237 193 81.4 26 Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products 38 34 89.5 27 Manufacture of electrical equipment 121 98 81.0 28 Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. 198 163 82.3 29 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 104 87 83.7 30 Manufacture of other transport equipment 25 24 96.0 31 Manufacture of furniture 67 51 76.1 32 Other manufacturing 57 50 87.7 33 Repair and installation of machinery and equipment 12 11 91.7 2600 2115 81.3 Total 2
  3. Statistics Department REAL SECTOR CONFIDENCE INDEX 2016 January 2007 - March 2017 Reel Sector Confidence Index 2017 Average Maximum Minumum March April May June July August September October November December January February March 104 .0 121.2 52.0 106.0 110.1 109.8 106.8 108.0 103.6 106.5 101.7 103.7 98.4 97.0 105.3 108.1 Total amount of orders (Current situation) 83.1 95.7 27.1 88.5 91.8 91.2 91.0 93.2 86.5 87.6 90.1 91.7 90.7 85.3 89.9 91.6 Amount of stocks of finished goods (Current (*) situation) 95.7 113.9 77.1 95.7 93.2 96.3 96.6 97.7 90.7 95.9 94.4 99.0 96.1 94.1 98.4 98.6 Volume of output (Next 3 months) 119.6 159.3 48.1 129.5 131.4 126.0 118.8 122.1 118.3 122.1 115.0 108.3 100.2 103.9 123.9 129.8 Total employment (Next 3 months) 106.9 122.1 47.6 110.2 115.6 114.1 113.3 113.8 111.5 109.4 107.1 106.4 107.6 105.6 110.8 118.1 Total amount of orders (Past 3 months) 106.2 134.6 32.6 96.3 105.3 120.3 114.4 120.6 103.6 109.1 98.4 115.8 104.7 99.7 94.0 98.1 Export orders (Next 3 months) 118.2 142.9 61.0 124.2 130.5 123.8 119.7 120.8 121.7 123.7 112.6 110.5 105.4 111.1 127.3 126.7 Fixed investment expenditure 105.4 132.3 47.3 106.9 111.7 107.2 107.0 101.3 104.0 105.1 103.9 100.8 98.2 103.3 104.7 108.1 General business situation 97.0 124.3 29.6 96.5 100.9 99.7 93.8 94.6 92.6 99.2 92.1 97.2 84.2 73.2 93.4 93.7 REAL SECTOR CONFIDENCE INDEX - (Seasonally Adjusted) 2016 January 2007 - March 2017 2017 Average Maximum Minumum March April May June July August September October November December January February March 104.1 119.0 58.9 104.1 105.7 105.7 104.3 106.3 103.0 107.1 103.8 107.6 103.6 100.5 106.5 106.7 Total amount of orders (Current situation) (**) 83.2 100.4 31.5 88.5 91.8 91.2 91.0 93.2 86.5 87.6 90.1 91.7 90.7 85.3 89.9 91.6 Amount of stocks of finished goods (Current situation) (*) (**) 95.7 113.9 77.1 95.7 93.2 96.3 96.6 97.7 90.7 95.9 94.4 99.0 96.1 94.1 98.4 98.6 Volume of output (Next 3 months) 119.5 144.0 72.6 116.1 115.5 113.4 115.5 123.0 118.8 124.2 123.0 120.4 118.7 110.9 118.9 117.5 Total employment (Next 3 months) 106.9 117.2 55.7 107.9 108.3 109.5 109.2 110.5 109.9 108.7 111.1 112.6 116.7 109.0 111.8 116.0 Total amount of orders (Past 3 months) 106.4 134.0 41.9 105.2 101.3 110.3 102.1 108.2 98.5 110.5 101.3 121.1 110.5 106.7 105.8 106.8 Export orders (Next 3 months) 118.3 137.4 75.4 115.9 122.9 117.8 119.0 121.6 122.9 125.7 114.9 117.7 113.6 121.1 129.4 121.7 Fixed investment expenditure (**) 105.4 132.3 47.3 106.9 111.7 107.2 107.0 101.3 104.0 105.1 103.9 100.8 98.2 103.3 104.7 108.1 97.0 124.3 29.6 96.5 100.9 99.7 93.8 94.6 92.6 99.2 92.1 97.2 84.2 73.2 93.4 93.7 Reel Sector Confidence Index General business situation (**) (*) When the diffusion index of the amount of stock of finished goods is calculated, the signs of the responses are reversed. While an increase in the diffusion index points out a decrease in the amount of stocks, a decline in the diffusion index indicates a rise in the amount of stocks. (**) Since seasonality is not observed in the series of total amount of orders, amount of stocks of finished goods, fixed investment expenditure and general business situation, these variables are not seasonally adjusted. 3
  4. Statistics Department BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEY WEIGHTED AGGREGATED RESULTS How has your production developed over the past 3 months ? It has... Increased Remained unchanged Decreased Balance SON ÜÇ AY ÜRETİM HACMİ EĞİLİMİ % % PRODUCTION - TREND OF LAST 3 MONTHS (Arttı-Azaldı) (Increased - Decreased) 50 2016-03 18.6 58.4 23.0 -4.4 2016-04 24.3 55.9 19.8 4.5 2016-05 26.5 58.6 14.9 11.6 2016-06 31.7 56.9 11.4 20.3 2016-07 31.6 56.5 11.9 19.7 2016-08 25.5 56.4 18.1 7.4 2016-09 22.7 57.2 20.1 2.6 2016-10 23.8 53.4 22.8 1.0 2016-11 23.8 53.9 22.3 1.5 2016-12 35.3 51.8 12.9 22.4 2017-01 33.6 50.8 15.6 18.0 2017-02 28.8 53.5 17.7 11.1 2017-03 21.4 59.6 19.0 2.4 50 30 30 10 10 -10 -10 -30 -30 -50 -50 -70 -70 2008-03 2007-03 2008-06 2007-06 2008-09 2008-12 2007-09 2009-03 2007-12 2009-06 2008-03 2009-09 2009-12 2008-06 2010-03 2008-09 2010-06 2010-09 2008-12 2010-12 2009-03 2011-03 2011-06 2009-06 2011-09 2009-09 2011-12 2009-12 2012-03 2012-06 2010-03 2012-09 2010-06 2012-12 2013-03 2010-09 2013-06 2010-12 2013-09 2013-12 2011-03 2014-03 2011-06 2014-06 2011-09 2014-09 2014-12 2011-12 2015-03 2012-03 2015-06 2015-09 2012-06 2015-12 2012-09 2016-03 2016-06 2012-12 2016-09 2013-03 2016-12 2013-06 2017-03 2017-06 2013-09 2017-09 2013-12 2017-12 Months How do you expect your production to develop over the next 3 months? It will... Increase Remained unchanged Decrease Balance % 60 2016-03 38.3 52.9 8.8 29.5 2016-04 41.4 48.6 10.0 31.4 2016-05 37.1 51.8 11.1 26.0 2016-06 33.9 51.0 15.1 18.8 2016-07 33.8 54.5 11.7 22.1 2016-08 32.2 53.9 13.9 18.3 2016-09 36.4 49.3 14.3 22.1 2016-10 31.6 51.8 16.6 15.0 2016-11 25.5 57.3 17.2 8.3 2016-12 20.7 58.8 20.5 0.2 2017-01 18.6 66.7 14.7 3.9 2017-02 32.0 59.9 8.1 23.9 2017-03 36.6 56.6 6.8 29.8 PRODUCTION - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months Do you consider your current stock of finished products to be...? Above normal Normal for the season Below normal Balance % 25 2016-03 10.7 82.9 6.4 4.3 2016-04 12.6 81.6 5.8 6.8 2016-05 12.3 79.1 8.6 3.7 2016-06 11.2 81.0 7.8 3.4 15 2016-07 10.2 81.9 7.9 2.3 10 2016-08 14.9 79.5 5.6 9.3 5 2016-09 10.4 83.3 6.3 4.1 2016-10 11.6 82.4 6.0 5.6 2016-11 7.8 85.4 6.8 1.0 -5 2016-12 10.7 82.5 6.8 3.9 -10 2017-01 12.4 81.1 6.5 5.9 2017-02 9.2 83.2 7.6 1.6 2017-03 9.2 83.0 7.8 1.4 CURRENT STOCK OF FINISHED PRODUCTS (Above Normal - Below Normal) 20 0 -15 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 4
  5. Statistics Department How have your overall orders developed over the past 3 months ? They have... Increased Remained unchanged Decreased Balance % -3.7 40 2016-03 19.9 56.5 23.6 2016-04 26.7 51.9 21.4 5.3 2016-05 33.4 53.5 13.1 20.3 2016-06 29.8 54.8 15.4 14.4 2016-07 33.7 53.2 13.1 20.6 2016-08 26.2 51.2 22.6 3.6 2016-09 28.8 51.5 19.7 9.1 2016-10 22.5 53.4 24.1 -1.6 2016-11 31.5 52.8 15.7 15.8 2016-12 25.3 54.1 20.6 4.7 2017-01 23.6 52.5 23.9 -0.3 2017-02 19.8 54.4 25.8 -6.0 2017-03 21.6 54.9 23.5 -1.9 OVERALL ORDERS - TREND OF LAST 3 MONTHS (Increased - Decreased) 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months How have your domestic orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... Increased Remained unchanged Decreased Balance 2016-03 16.7 61.1 22.2 -5.5 2016-04 25.2 55.7 19.1 6.1 2016-05 33.1 54.3 12.6 20.5 2016-06 30.7 57.0 12.3 18.4 2016-07 30.9 56.9 12.2 18.7 2016-08 26.5 53.4 20.1 6.4 2016-09 25.6 54.7 19.7 5.9 2016-10 21.0 58.8 20.2 0.8 2016-11 25.2 54.5 20.3 4.9 2016-12 21.8 54.8 23.4 -1.6 2017-01 17.1 56.9 26.0 -8.9 2017-02 18.5 53.5 28.0 -9.5 2017-03 18.8 54.9 26.3 -7.5 DOMESTIC ORDERS - TREND OF PAST 3 MONTHS (Increased - Decreased) % 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months How have your export orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... Increased Remained unchanged Decreased Balance 2016-03 17.6 58.7 23.7 -6.1 2016-04 21.1 53.3 25.6 -4.5 2016-05 23.7 53.3 23.0 0.7 2016-06 19.8 56.2 24.0 -4.2 2016-07 19.9 57.0 23.1 -3.2 2016-08 19.1 53.9 27.0 -7.9 2016-09 27.2 53.9 18.9 8.3 2016-10 19.0 56.6 24.4 -5.4 2016-11 28.5 55.6 15.9 12.6 2016-12 20.9 57.1 22.0 -1.1 2017-01 28.2 55.6 16.2 12.0 2017-02 24.1 56.8 19.1 5.0 2017-03 24.4 60.1 15.5 8.9 % EXPORT ORDERS - TREND OF PAST 3 MONTHS (Increased - Decreased) 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 5
  6. Statistics Department Do you consider your current overall order books to be ...? Months Above normal Normal for the season Below normal Balance % 0 2016-03 4.3 79.9 15.8 -11.5 2016-04 5.4 81.0 13.6 -8.2 2016-05 7.1 77.0 15.9 -8.8 2016-06 6.7 77.6 15.7 -9.0 2016-07 6.5 80.2 13.3 -6.8 -30 2016-08 3.5 79.5 17.0 -13.5 -40 2016-09 2.9 81.8 15.3 -12.4 2016-10 3.9 82.3 13.8 -9.9 2016-11 4.6 82.5 12.9 -8.3 -60 2016-12 5.8 79.1 15.1 -9.3 -70 2017-01 4.2 76.9 18.9 -14.7 2017-02 6.0 77.9 16.1 -10.1 2017-03 5.2 81.2 13.6 -8.4 TREND OF CURRENT OVERALL ORDERS (Above Normal - Below Normal) -10 -20 -50 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 -80 Do you consider your current domestic order books to be...? Months Above normal Normal for the season Below normal Balance % TREND OF CURRENT DOMESTIC ORDERS (Above Normal - Below Normal) 2016-03 3.9 80.0 16.1 -12.2 0 2016-04 6.3 82.0 11.7 -5.4 -10 2016-05 6.6 79.7 13.7 -7.1 2016-06 6.8 80.0 13.2 -6.4 2016-07 5.0 83.3 11.7 -6.7 -30 2016-08 3.5 77.9 18.6 -15.1 -40 2016-09 3.1 80.3 16.6 -13.5 2016-10 3.0 83.5 13.5 -10.5 2016-11 4.3 81.4 14.3 -10.0 2016-12 4.9 79.2 15.9 -11.0 2017-01 3.8 76.2 20.0 -16.2 2017-02 5.6 70.2 24.2 -18.6 2017-03 7.0 76.9 16.1 -9.1 -20 -50 -60 -70 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 -80 Do you consider your current export order books to be...? Above normal Normal for the season Below normal Balance % 2016-03 5.1 77.5 17.4 -12.3 5 2016-04 5.1 77.2 17.7 -12.6 -5 2016-05 6.6 74.5 18.9 -12.3 2016-06 6.1 73.9 20.0 -13.9 2016-07 5.8 77.3 16.9 -11.1 -25 2016-08 7.5 74.4 18.1 -10.6 -35 2016-09 6.2 75.8 18.0 -11.8 2016-10 5.0 79.9 15.1 -10.1 2016-11 6.4 77.8 15.8 -9.4 2016-12 6.0 76.7 17.3 -11.3 2017-01 5.3 77.0 17.7 -12.4 2017-02 6.2 77.4 16.4 -10.2 2017-03 6.2 79.6 14.2 -8.0 TREND OF CURRENT STOK OF FINISHED PRODUCTS (Above Normal - Below Normal) -15 -45 -55 -65 -75 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 6
  7. Statistics Department How many months of production are assured by your current overall order books ? (*) Weighted average 2016-01 3.4 3 2016-04 3.3 2 2016-07 3.3 1 2016-10 3.6 0 2017-01 3.3 5 2008-01 2008-04 2008-07 2008-10 2009-01 2009-04 2009-07 2009-10 2010-01 2010-04 2010-07 2010-10 2011-01 2011-04 2011-07 2011-10 2012-01 2012-04 2012-07 2012-10 2013-01 2013-04 2013-07 2013-10 2014-01 2014-04 2014-07 2014-10 2015-01 2015-04 2015-07 2015-10 2016-01 2016-04 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 4 Considering your current order books and the expected change in demand over the coming months, how do you assess your current production capacity? The current production capacity is… (*) Sufficient Not sufficient CURRENT PRODUCTION CAPACITY (More than sufficient - Sufficient) % 15 10 Balance 5 0 2016-01 10.3 80.3 9.4 0.9 2016-04 8.0 82.9 9.1 -1.1 2016-07 6.4 85.3 8.3 -1.9 2016-10 7.5 84.4 8.1 -0.6 2017-01 11.8 79.4 8.8 3.0 -5 -10 2008-01 2008-04 2008-07 2008-10 2009-01 2009-04 2009-07 2009-10 2010-01 2010-04 2010-07 2010-10 2011-01 2011-04 2011-07 2011-10 2012-01 2012-04 2012-07 2012-10 2013-01 2013-04 2013-07 2013-10 2014-01 2014-04 2014-07 2014-10 2015-01 2015-04 2015-07 2015-10 2016-01 2016-04 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 More than sufficient (Weighted Average) 6 Months Months PRODUCTION PERIOD Months Capacity Utilization Rate (%) Weighted average 2016-03 74.3 2016-04 75.3 2016-05 75.7 2016-06 76.1 2016-07 75.7 2016-08 75.2 2016-09 76.6 2016-10 76.4 2016-11 76.4 2016-12 76.5 2017-01 75.5 2017-02 75.4 2017-03 74.9 CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (%) % (Weighted Average) 100 90 80 70 60 50 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months What main factors are currently limiting your production? Rank according to degree of importance. (% Share) (*) a. None b. Insufficient demand c. Shortage of labour force d. Shortage of material and/or equipment e. Financial constraints f. Others January 49.1 20.3 8.9 8.9 8.0 4.8 2016 April July 47.8 47.3 22.2 19.7 8.5 8.1 8.8 8.2 8.2 8.4 4.5 8.3 October 49.4 21.6 7.5 7.9 7.5 6.1 FACTORS LIMITING THE PRODUCTION 2017 January 46.6 22.3 8.3 9.0 8.8 5.0 (*) These indicators are produced quarterly (in January, April, July and October). 7
  8. Statistics Department How do you expect your overall orders to develop over the next 3 months ? They will... Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance 2016-03 40.8 49.0 10.2 30.6 2016-04 46.9 43.7 9.4 37.5 2016-05 38.2 50.2 11.6 26.6 2016-06 38.5 46.7 14.8 23.7 2016-07 33.9 52.7 13.4 20.5 2016-08 35.2 52.6 12.2 23.0 2016-09 37.9 46.0 16.1 21.8 2016-10 31.2 49.4 19.4 11.8 2016-11 23.2 57.8 19.0 4.2 2016-12 19.2 60.2 20.6 -1.4 2017-01 24.4 60.4 15.2 9.2 2017-02 34.5 56.7 8.8 25.7 2017-03 40.1 52.6 7.3 32.8 OVERALL ORDERS - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) % 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months How do you expect your domestic order books to develop over the next 3 months? They will... Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance 2016-03 37.4 52.3 10.3 27.1 2016-04 45.6 45.7 8.7 36.9 2016-05 37.0 52.7 10.3 26.7 2016-06 34.2 50.9 14.9 19.3 2016-07 31.4 55.3 13.3 18.1 2016-08 30.4 54.7 14.9 15.5 2016-09 34.4 47.3 18.3 16.1 2016-10 27.8 57.9 14.3 13.5 2016-11 22.2 55.3 22.5 -0.3 2016-12 22.3 55.0 22.7 -0.4 2017-01 20.5 57.9 21.6 -1.1 2017-02 31.4 56.9 11.7 19.7 2017-03 37.2 54.8 8.0 29.2 DOMESTIC ORDERS - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) % 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 3 months? They will... Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance 2016-03 34.2 55.8 10.0 24.2 2016-04 39.2 52.1 8.7 30.5 2016-05 35 53.8 11.2 23.8 2016-06 34.7 50.3 15.0 19.7 2016-07 33.1 54.6 12.3 20.8 2016-08 33 55.7 11.3 21.7 2016-09 37.2 49.3 13.5 23.7 2016-10 30.3 52.0 17.7 12.6 2016-11 27.8 54.9 17.3 10.5 2016-12 22.3 60.8 16.9 5.4 2017-01 23.8 63.5 12.7 11.1 2017-02 35.3 56.7 8.0 27.3 2017-03 34.2 58.3 7.5 26.7 % EXPORT ORDERS - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) 40 20 0 -20 -40 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 8
  9. Statistics Department How do you expect your firm 's total employment to change over the next 3 months? It will… Months Increase Remained unchanged Decrease Balance % TOTAL EMPLOYMENT - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase-Decrease) 2016-03 19.7 70.8 9.5 10.2 30 2016-04 22.5 70.6 6.9 15.6 20 2016-05 20.5 73.1 6.4 14.1 10 2016-06 20.0 73.3 6.7 13.3 0 2016-07 20.1 73.6 6.3 13.8 2016-08 16.3 78.9 4.8 11.5 2016-09 17.0 75.4 7.6 9.4 2016-10 13.5 80.1 6.4 7.1 -30 2016-11 14.0 78.4 7.6 6.4 -40 2016-12 16.1 75.4 8.5 7.6 -50 2017-01 14.1 77.4 8.5 5.6 -60 2017-02 17.3 76.2 6.5 10.8 2017-03 23.2 71.7 5.1 18.1 -10 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 -20 Compared to the last 12 months, how do you expect your fixed investment expenditure to change over the next 12 months? It will... Months Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance FIXED INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 12 MONTHS % 2016-03 23.5 59.9 16.6 6.9 40 2016-04 30.1 51.5 18.4 11.7 30 2016-05 27.6 52.0 20.4 7.2 20 2016-06 24.7 57.6 17.7 7.0 10 2016-07 19.6 62.1 18.3 1.3 0 2016-08 21.1 61.8 17.1 4.0 -10 2016-09 21.9 61.3 16.8 5.1 -20 2016-10 19.5 64.9 15.6 3.9 -30 2016-11 21.6 57.6 20.8 0.8 -40 2016-12 19.5 59.2 21.3 -1.8 -50 2017-01 19.9 63.5 16.6 3.3 2017-02 19.9 64.9 15.2 4.7 2017-03 22.6 62.9 14.5 8.1 (Increase - Decrease) 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 -60 Your opinion about the general course of business in your industry, compared to previous month. More optimistic Remain unchanged More pessimistic Balance % GENERAL COURSE OF BUSINESS (More Optimistic - More Pessimistic) 30 2016-03 11.5 73.5 15.0 -3.5 2016-04 15.4 70.1 14.5 0.9 2016-05 11.0 77.7 11.3 -0.3 2016-06 10.1 73.6 16.3 -6.2 0 2016-07 12.0 70.6 17.4 -5.4 -10 2016-08 13.7 65.2 21.1 -7.4 -20 2016-09 14.1 71.0 14.9 -0.8 -30 2016-10 9.4 73.3 17.3 -7.9 -40 2016-11 10.4 76.4 13.2 -2.8 -50 2016-12 8.1 68.0 23.9 -15.8 -60 2017-01 4.7 63.8 31.5 -26.8 2017-02 9.8 73.8 16.4 -6.6 2017-03 12.1 69.5 18.4 -6.3 20 10 -70 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 9
  10. Statistics Department How has your average unit cost changed over the past 3 months ? It has... Increased Remained unchanged Decreased Balance 2016-03 38.7 49.2 12.1 26.6 2016-04 31.1 56.8 12.1 19.0 2016-05 36.9 54.0 9.1 27.8 2016-06 39.5 53.3 7.2 32.3 2016-07 32.7 63.1 4.2 28.5 2016-08 38.7 56.6 4.7 34.0 2016-09 36.5 57.4 6.1 30.4 2016-10 41.6 55.3 3.1 38.5 2016-11 45 51.0 4.0 41.0 2016-12 48.8 46.8 4.4 44.4 2017-01 57.7 39.1 3.2 54.5 2017-02 59.8 37.8 2.4 57.4 2017-03 56.2 39.8 4.0 52.2 % AVERAGE UNIT COST - TREND OF PAST 3 MONTHS (Increased - Decreased) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months How do you expect your average unit cost to change over the next 3 months? It will... Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance % AVERAGE UNIT COST - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) 2016-03 34.6 58.3 7.1 27.5 2016-04 35.7 59.2 5.1 30.6 2016-05 32.2 61.4 6.4 25.8 2016-06 31.6 64.5 3.9 27.7 2016-07 30.6 64.7 4.7 25.9 2016-08 32.9 61.1 6.0 26.9 2016-09 32.3 63.3 4.4 27.9 2016-10 37.8 55.9 6.3 31.5 2016-11 41.9 55.0 3.1 38.8 2016-12 52.9 45.8 1.3 51.6 2017-01 54.6 42.9 2.5 52.1 2017-02 43.6 52.3 4.1 39.5 2017-03 38.9 56.3 4.8 34.1 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months How do you expect your domestic market selling prices to change over the next 3 months? They will... Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance 2016-03 24.2 68.7 7.1 17.1 2016-04 23.8 70.8 5.4 18.4 2016-05 26.8 65.1 8.1 18.7 2016-06 23.0 71.8 5.2 17.8 2016-07 15.3 78.6 6.1 9.2 2016-08 23.8 69.5 6.7 17.1 2016-09 22.6 71.6 5.8 16.8 2016-10 27.3 67.6 5.1 22.2 2016-11 32.1 63.4 4.5 27.6 2016-12 43.0 52.7 4.3 38.7 2017-01 42.9 53.9 3.2 39.7 2017-02 36.9 59.3 3.8 33.1 2017-03 33.9 61.9 4.2 29.7 % 45 DOMESTIC MARKET SELLING PRICES - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increased - Decreased) 35 25 15 5 -5 -15 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 3 months? They will... Increase Remained unchanged Decrease Balance % SELLING PRICES - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) 2016-03 24.7 68.9 6.4 18.3 2016-04 23.0 69.0 8.0 15.0 2016-05 25.5 65.3 9.2 16.3 2016-06 22.3 71.9 5.8 16.5 2016-07 16.2 76.4 7.4 8.8 2016-08 23.3 70.2 6.5 16.8 2016-09 20.7 73.7 5.6 15.1 2016-10 27.6 67.0 5.4 22.2 2016-11 30.0 65.2 4.8 25.2 2016-12 40.7 55.9 3.4 37.3 2017-01 39.3 56.8 3.9 35.4 2017-02 36.9 59.3 3.8 33.1 2017-03 32.2 63.7 4.1 28.1 35 25 15 5 -5 -15 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 10
  11. Statistics Department How has your competitive position on the domestic market developed over the past 3 months ? It has… (*) Months Improved Remained Deteriorated unchanged Balance % 20 10 2016-01 13.7 78.0 8.3 5.4 2016-04 12.2 82.1 5.7 6.5 0 2016-07 11.3 83.9 4.8 6.5 -10 2016-10 9.1 84.0 6.9 2.2 2017-01 8.9 80.0 11.1 -2.2 How has your competitive position on foreign markets inside the EU developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) COMPETITIVE POSITION ON DOMESTIC MARKET (Improved - Deteriorated) 2008-01 2008-04 2008-07 2008-10 2009-01 2009-04 2009-07 2009-10 2010-01 2010-04 2010-07 2010-10 2011-01 2011-04 2011-07 2011-10 2012-01 2012-04 2012-07 2012-10 2013-01 2013-04 2013-07 2013-10 2014-01 2014-04 2014-07 2014-10 2015-01 2015-04 2015-07 2015-10 2016-01 2016-04 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 -20 % COMPETITIVE POSITION ON FOREIGN MARKETS INSIDE THE EU (Improved - Deteriorated) 10 Improved Remained Deteriorated unchanged 5 Balance 0 2016-01 10.8 79.1 10.1 0.7 2016-04 9.1 82.2 8.7 0.4 2016-07 7.1 82.9 10.0 -2.9 2016-10 11.2 81.0 7.8 3.4 2017-01 9.2 80.6 10.2 -1.0 How has your competitive position on foreign markets outside the EU developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) -5 -10 -15 -20 2008-01 2008-04 2008-07 2008-10 2009-01 2009-04 2009-07 2009-10 2010-01 2010-04 2010-07 2010-10 2011-01 2011-04 2011-07 2011-10 2012-01 2012-04 2012-07 2012-10 2013-01 2013-04 2013-07 2013-10 2014-01 2014-04 2014-07 2014-10 2015-01 2015-04 2015-07 2015-10 2016-01 2016-04 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 Months % COMPETITIVE POSITION ON FOREIGN MARKETS OUTSIDE THE EU (Improved - Deteriorated) 10 Improved Balance 2016-01 10.3 79.3 10.4 -0.1 2016-04 10.4 81.1 8.5 1.9 2016-07 9.1 82.9 8.0 1.1 2016-10 12.2 80.1 7.7 4.5 2017-01 9.5 80.9 9.6 -0.1 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 2008-01 2008-04 2008-07 2008-10 2009-01 2009-04 2009-07 2009-10 2010-01 2010-04 2010-07 2010-10 2011-01 2011-04 2011-07 2011-10 2012-01 2012-04 2012-07 2012-10 2013-01 2013-04 2013-07 2013-10 2014-01 2014-04 2014-07 2014-10 2015-01 2015-04 2015-07 2015-10 2016-01 2016-04 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 Months Remained Deteriorated unchanged (*) These indicators are produced quarterly (in January, April, July and October). 11
  12. Statistics Department What is your expectation for inflation (producer prices) rate over the next twelve months ? (Weighted Average) (%) Weighted average 2016-03 8.2 2016-04 7.9 2016-05 7.8 2016-06 7.7 2016-07 7.7 2016-08 7.6 2016-09 7.5 2016-10 7.5 2016-11 7.4 2016-12 7.9 2017-01 8.7 2017-02 9.0 2017-03 9.5 INFLATION RATE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS (%) % (Weighted Average) 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months How do you expect the short term Turkish Lira credit interest rate to change over the next three months? It will... Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance 2016-03 22.8 69.8 7.4 15.4 2016-04 12.5 59.6 27.9 -15.4 2016-05 13.5 65.4 21.1 -7.6 2016-06 9.6 68.9 21.5 -11.9 2016-07 13.8 64.8 21.4 -7.6 2016-08 9.7 61.6 28.7 -19.0 2016-09 7.5 68.1 24.4 -16.9 2016-10 20.5 64.3 15.2 5.3 2016-11 20.1 65.2 14.7 5.4 2016-12 37.4 56.6 6.0 31.4 2017-01 51.2 44.4 4.4 46.8 2017-02 38.2 56.2 5.6 32.6 2017-03 32.5 61.5 6.0 26.5 % CREDIT INTEREST RATE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 12