Turkey: Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index - June 2022

Transcription

1. BUSINESS TENDENCY STATISTICS AND REAL SECTOR CONFIDENCE INDEX DATA GOVERNANCE AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT SURVEYS AND INDICES DIVISION JUNE 2022
2. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | June 2022 Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) Graph 1. Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) and Seasonally Adjusted RSCI RSCI RSCI-SA 150 130 110 90 70 06.22 01.22 07.21 01.21 07.20 01.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 50 RSCI = 100: A stable outlook to the economic activity by the real sector agents covered by the Business Tendency Survey. RSCI > 100: An optimistic outlook to the economic activity by the real sector agents covered by the Business Tendency Survey. RSCI < 100: A pessimistic outlook to the economic activity by the real sector agents covered by the Business Tendency Survey. Table 1. Developments in Aggregated Results (*) Last Three Months Current Next Three Months Production Overall Order Books Domestic Order Books Export Order Books Total Employment Average Unit Cost Selling Prices (*) Short arrows indicate monthly changes, while long arrows indicate annual changes. Apart from unit cost and selling prices, navy blue coloured arrows represent increases and red coloured arrows represent decreases. 1
3. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | June 2022 2 Graph 2. Production, Export Orders and Domestic Orders for the Last Three Months (Balance) Production-last 3 months Domestic orders-last 3 months Export orders-last 3 months 40 20 0 -20 -40 06.22 01.22 07.21 01.21 07.20 01.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 -60 Graph 4. Current Stock of Finished Products (Balance) Graph 3. Current Total Orders (Balance) 10 20 0 16 12 -10 8 -20 4 -30 0 -4 -50 -8 -60 -12 01.13 07.13 01.14 07.14 01.15 07.15 01.16 07.16 01.17 07.17 01.18 07.18 01.19 07.19 01.20 07.20 01.21 07.21 01.22 06.22 01.13 07.13 01.14 07.14 01.15 07.15 01.16 07.16 01.17 07.17 01.18 07.18 01.19 07.19 01.20 07.20 01.21 07.21 01.22 06.22 -40 Balance: Difference between percentage of “positive” (increased, will increase, more optimistic, above normal, improved) responses and percentage of “negative” (decreased, will decrease, more pessimistic, below normal, deteriorated) responses.
4. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | June 2022 Graph 5. Production, Domestic Orders and Export Orders for the Next Three Months (Balance) Graph 6. Fixed Investment Expenditures for the Next Twelve Months and Total Employment for the Next Three Months (Balance) Production-next 3 months Fixed investment expenditures-next 12 months Domestic orders-next 3 months Export orders-next 3 months 3 Total employment-next 3 months 60 40 30 40 20 20 10 0 0 -20 -10 -20 -40 -30 Graph 8. Unit Cost and Selling Prices for the Next Three Months (Balance) Graph 7. Unit Cost for the Last and Next Three Months (Balance) 90 Selling prices-next 3 months Unit cost-next 3 months 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 01.13 07.13 01.14 07.14 01.15 07.15 01.16 07.16 01.17 07.17 01.18 07.18 01.19 07.19 01.20 07.20 01.21 07.21 01.22 06.22 Unit cost-next 3 months 01.13 07.13 01.14 07.14 01.15 07.15 01.16 07.16 01.17 07.17 01.18 07.18 01.19 07.19 01.20 07.20 01.21 07.21 01.22 06.22 Unit cost-last 3 months -40 01.13 07.13 01.14 07.14 01.15 07.15 01.16 07.16 01.17 07.17 01.18 07.18 01.19 07.19 01.20 07.20 01.21 07.21 01.22 06.22 01.13 07.13 01.14 07.14 01.15 07.15 01.16 07.16 01.17 07.17 01.18 07.18 01.19 07.19 01.20 07.20 01.21 07.21 01.22 06.22 -60
5. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | June 2022 4 Graph 9. General Course of Business (Balance) 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 06.22 01.22 07.21 01.21 07.20 01.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 -70 The aggregated results of the Business Tendency Statistics computed as weighted averages have been published as part of the "Official Statistics Programme (OSP)" based on the Statistics Law of Türkiye. Starting from May 2007, Business Tendency Survey became a part of the "Joint Harmonized European Union Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys" and has been co-financed by CBRT and the European Commission. Aggregated results and methodological information are available at the web site http://www.tcmb.gov.tr under the menu "Statistics/Tendency Surveys/Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index". In addition, time series data can be reached at “Statistics/Statistical Data (EDDS)/Surveys”. The survey results are compiled from the responses of the participants and do not reflect the views or predictions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye. For any views and suggestions: E-mail: iya@tcmb.gov.tr
6. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | June 2022 5 Business Tendency Survey Aggregated Results (Balance Values) JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL How has your production developed over the past 3 months? Do you consider your current overall order books to be...? Do you consider your current export order books to be...? MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER 2021 16.2 5.8 3.9 15.9 13.2 12.0 17.1 19.2 17.0 24.8 22.2 13.4 2022 10.0 2.8 0.7 9.1 14.0 9.4 2021 -12.0 -10.9 -8.6 -7.8 -11.0 -9.3 -8.1 -6.4 -1.6 -2.7 -0.9 -2.7 2022 -3.9 -7.0 -5.0 -7.1 -7.6 -8.2 2021 -16.8 -13.7 -12.7 -11.4 -11.0 -10.6 -6.7 -4.9 -1.8 -3.2 -6.0 -5.4 -11.1 1.5 1.8 0.6 6.2 2.6 1.0 32.9 31.6 28.3 13.3 11.9 12.7 36.2 30.9 31.0 41.4 48.6 56.2 16.4 15.7 15.2 11.6 10.6 14.2 2022 -4.9 -4.8 -6.4 -8.5 -6.6 Do you consider your current stok of finished products to be...? 2021 -2.8 -1.2 -1.9 -2.4 -2.3 1.0 2022 0.8 2.0 4.2 2.1 5.0 6.8 How do you expect your production to develop over the next 3 months? 2021 17.1 24.0 30.9 25.9 25.0 34.1 2022 18.6 28.0 25.9 23.5 23.0 16.9 How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 3 months? 2021 35.4 31.5 32.5 35.4 39.5 35.7 2022 46.8 45.2 51.6 49.1 48.8 43.7 How do you expect your firm's total employment to change over the next 3 months? 2021 8.1 12.1 12.4 13.7 10.6 13.6 2022 15.6 15.8 15.8 13.9 17.1 17.8 Considering your current order books and the expected change in demand over the coming months, how do you assess your current production capacity? 2021 -1.0 -0.7 2022 1.2 -2.0 How many months of production are assured by your current overall order books ? 2021 3.8 3.9 2022 4.2 4.1 How have your overall orders developed over the past 3 months? 2021 10.5 4.3 2.0 16.9 15.9 13.9 2022 17.3 6.7 7.6 13.2 14.5 5.9 How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 3 months? 2021 12.9 24.5 27.6 16.9 21.1 31.2 2022 17.9 26.4 24.1 23.4 20.6 18.7 Capacity Utilization Rate of Manufacturing Industry. They will... 2021 75.4 74.9 74.7 75.9 75.3 76.6 2022 77.6 76.6 77.3 77.8 78.0 77.6 How has your competitive position on the domestic market developed over the past 3 months? 2021 2.7 3.5 2022 3.7 -0.4 How has your competitive position on foreign markets inside the EU developed over the past 3 months? 2021 -3.8 3.5 2022 2.1 0.3 How has your competitive position on foreign markets outside the EU developed over the past 3 months? 2021 -1.4 0.1 2022 0.2 -0.3 How do you expect your overall orders to develop over the next 3 months? 2021 18.5 25.0 32.6 26.8 23.4 33.6 2022 17.8 27.3 29.0 26.4 20.4 16.7 How have your export orders developed over the past 3 months? 2021 11.0 0.9 -0.8 6.4 15.5 15.8 2022 17.9 13.6 3.7 10.6 15.3 6.8 2021 -12.7 -10.4 -10.6 -10.6 -15.1 -13.3 2022 -7.0 -8.7 -7.2 -10.9 -12.0 -11.4 How have your domestic orders developed over the past 3 months? 2021 7.1 -1.7 -1.7 13.7 8.1 8.6 2022 8.3 -3.6 4.9 7.0 8.4 3.1 How do you expect your domestic order books to develop over the next 3 months? 2021 14.5 16.3 28.9 19.1 17.9 32.9 2022 10.2 22.3 24.9 24.1 18.5 16.0 How do you expect your domestic market selling prices to change over the next 3 months? 2021 34.3 31.9 32.7 36.2 37.0 37.2 2022 41.9 45.3 48.1 45.7 43.9 42.3 Compared to the last 12 months, how do you expect your fixed investment expenditure to change over the next 12 months? 2021 12.5 16.2 17.7 22.8 18.6 19.0 2022 22.7 24.1 24.4 29.0 25.7 27.7 How has your average unit cost changed over the past 3 months? 2021 53.7 55.4 57.9 61.5 62.4 59.7 2022 70.4 73.4 75.7 77.9 76.7 75.1 How do you expect your average unit cost to change over the next 3 months? 2021 47.3 44.2 43.8 45.8 52.0 49.8 2022 64.3 64.4 65.1 65.5 65.1 67.1 What is your expectation for inflation (producer prices) rate over the next twelve months (as an annual percentage)? 2021 16.5 16.4 17.5 19.2 20.6 21.8 2022 43.5 49.0 54.8 64.9 71.1 80.9 How do you expect the short term Turkish Lira credit interest rate to change over the next three months? 2021 27.4 14.6 21.8 11.6 12.8 6.6 2022 20.0 12.9 29.9 24.8 28.8 26.0 Your opinion about the general course of business in your industry, compared to previous month. 2021 4.3 3.1 2.1 -2.9 -0.3 2.5 2022 -11.2 -14.0 -20.8 -16.4 -12.8 -20.6 Do you consider your current domestic order books to be...? 0.0 -2.1 3.9 3.9 16.7 16.0 20.3 21.3 21.3 10.5 34.2 29.6 23.9 20.5 12.7 16.6 76.7 77.1 78.1 78.0 78.1 78.7 3.5 5.9 2.9 4.3 3.0 5.3 34.5 34.0 27.4 19.1 13.5 12.0 19.4 11.0 17.9 18.7 12.6 10.9 -10.6 -9.8 -7.3 -2.7 -2.5 -4.2 9.9 9.5 10.0 13.6 14.5 6.8 29.7 28.8 21.2 14.5 13.0 3.2 37.1 32.2 29.6 35.7 45.3 53.8 20.8 20.5 23.1 26.9 23.4 21.3 62.3 60.8 61.3 66.0 69.0 73.4 48.8 45.6 45.5 58.9 62.2 71.1 23.2 24.6 26.1 27.7 30.1 35.3 9.6 5.2 -0.2 -3.6 -6.7 -8.2 7.0 5.6 -1.3 -8.3 -9.4 -23.0 Note: Weighted and unweighted aggregated results of Business Tendency Survey are published under https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket as time-series.