Turkey: Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index - October 2021

Transcription

1. BUSINESS TENDENCY STATISTICS AND REAL SECTOR CONFIDENCE INDEX DATA GOVERNANCE AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT SURVEYS AND INDICES DIVISION OCTOBER 2021
2. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | October 2021 1 Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) Graph 1. Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) and Seasonally Adjusted RSCI RSCI RSCI-SA 150 130 110 90 70 07.21 10.21 01.21 07.20 01.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 50 RSCI = 100: A stable outlook to the economic activity by the real sector agents covered by the Business Tendency Survey. RSCI > 100: An optimistic outlook to the economic activity by the real sector agents covered by the Business Tendency Survey. RSCI < 100: A pessimistic outlook to the economic activity by the real sector agents covered by the Business Tendency Survey. Table 1. Developments in Aggregated Results (*) Last Three Months Current Next Three Months Production Overall Order Books Domestic Order Books Export Order Books Total Employment Average Unit Cost Selling Prices (*) Short arrows indicate monthly changes, while long arrows indicate annual changes. Apart from unit cost and selling prices, navy blue coloured arrows represent increases and red coloured arrows represent decreases.
3. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | October 2021 2 Graph 2. Production, Export Orders and Domestic Orders for the Last Three Months (Balance) Production-last 3 months Domestic orders-last 3 months Export orders-last 3 months 40 20 0 -20 -40 Graph 3. Current Total Orders (Balance) 07.21 10.21 01.21 07.20 01.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 -60 Graph 4. Current Stock of Finished Products (Balance) 10 20 0 16 12 -10 8 -20 4 -30 0 -4 10.21 01.21 07.20 01.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 -12 07.14 -60 01.14 -8 07.13 -50 01.13 10.21 01.21 07.20 01.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 -40 Balance: Difference between percentage of “positive” (increased, will increase, more optimistic, above normal, improved) responses and percentage of “negative” (decreased, will decrease, more pessimistic, below normal, deteriorated) responses.
4. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | October 2021 3 Graph 5. Production, Domestic Orders and Export Orders for the Next Three Months (Balance) Graph 6. Fixed Investment Expenditures for the Next Twelve Months and Total Employment for the Next Three Months (Balance) Production-next 3 months Fixed investment expenditures-next 12 months Domestic orders-next 3 months Total employment-next 3 months Export orders-next 3 months 60 40 30 40 20 20 10 0 0 -20 -10 -20 -40 -30 10.21 01.21 07.20 01.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 0 0 -10 -10 10.21 10 01.21 10 07.20 20 01.20 20 07.19 30 01.19 30 07.18 40 01.18 40 07.17 50 01.17 50 07.16 60 01.16 60 07.15 70 01.15 70 07.14 Unit cost-next 3 months 80 01.14 Selling prices-next 3 months 07.13 80 01.13 10.21 01.21 07.20 01.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 Unit cost-next 3 months 07.14 Graph 8. Unit Cost and Selling Prices for the Next Three Months (Balance) Graph 7. Unit Cost for the Last and Next Three Months (Balance) Unit cost-last 3 monhts 01.14 07.13 -40 01.13 10.21 01.21 07.20 01.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 -60
5. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | October 2021 4 Graph 9. Factors Limiting Production (%) October 2021 July 2021 Insufficient demand 14.2% No Limiting Factors 49.2% Shortage of labour force 8.6% Shortage of labour force 7.5% Shortage of material and/or equipment Financial 12.2% Others 5.7% constraints 7.8% Graph 11. Competitive Position in Foreign Markets Outside EU (Balance) -16 -20 -20 10.21 -16 01.21 -12 07.20 -12 01.19 -8 07.19 -8 07.18 -4 01.18 -4 07.17 0 01.17 0 07.16 4 07.15 4 01.15 8 07.14 8 01.14 12 07.13 12 01.13 10.21 01.21 07.20 01.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 Graph 10. Competitive Position in Foreign Markets Inside EU (Balance) 01.16 Others 5.9% Shortage of material and/or equipment 13.4% Financial constraints 8.4% 01.20 No Limiting Factors 52.3% Insufficient demand 14.7%
6. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | October 2021 5 Graph 12. General Course of Business (Balance) 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 10.21 07.21 01.21 07.20 01.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 -70 The aggregated results of the Business Tendency Statistics computed as weighted averages have been published as part of the "Official Statistics Programme (OSP)" based on the Statistics Law of Turkey. Starting from May 2007, Business Tendency Survey became a part of the "Joint Harmonized European Union Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys" and has been co-financed by CBRT and the European Commission. Aggregated results and methodological information are available at the web site http://www.tcmb.gov.tr under the menu "Statistics/Tendency Surveys/Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index". In addition, time series data can be reached at “Statistics/Statistical Data (EDDS)/Surveys”. The survey results are compiled from the responses of the participants and do not reflect the views or predictions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. For any views and suggestions: E-mail: iya@tcmb.gov.tr
7. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | October 2021 6 Business Tendency Survey Aggregated Results (Balance Values) JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL How has your production developed over the past 3 months? Do you consider your current overall order books to be...? Do you consider your current export order books to be...? MAY JUNE JULY 2020 3.6 2.8 -0.4 -23.6 -47.3 -45.0 -18.2 AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER 13.3 16.5 24.5 2021 16.2 5.8 3.9 15.9 13.2 12.0 17.1 19.2 17.0 24.8 2020 -17.7 -14.2 -17.3 -51.5 -55.4 -48.7 -33.6 -22.0 -16.8 -13.1 2021 -12.0 -10.9 -8.6 -7.8 -11.0 -9.3 -8.1 -6.4 -1.6 -2.7 2020 -15.6 -9.1 -18.8 -53.7 -55.7 -44.3 -38.6 -28.7 -24.0 -16.6 2021 -16.8 -13.7 -12.7 -11.4 -11.0 -10.6 -6.7 -4.9 -1.8 -3.2 Do you consider your current stok of finished products to be...? 2020 2.9 5.7 3.3 1.3 0.8 -8.1 -3.0 -6.5 -1.4 -3.0 2021 -2.8 -1.2 -1.9 -2.4 -2.3 1.0 1.5 1.8 0.6 6.2 How do you expect your production to develop over the next 3 months? 2020 16.9 27.9 14.6 -38.8 -10.1 23.4 31.5 30.3 19.3 20.5 2021 17.1 24.0 30.9 25.9 25.0 34.1 32.9 31.6 28.3 13.3 How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 3 months? 2020 25.3 22.8 20.3 -0.3 11.7 15.6 19.1 34.0 31.4 33.1 2021 35.4 31.5 32.5 35.4 39.5 35.7 36.2 30.9 31.0 41.4 How do you expect your firm's total employment to change over the next 3 months? 2020 6.5 8.9 4.2 -13.5 -4.7 1.8 6.2 7.3 6.2 7.1 2021 8.1 12.1 12.4 13.7 10.6 13.6 16.4 15.7 15.2 11.6 Considering your current order books and the expected change in demand over the coming months, how do you assess your current production capacity? 2020 2.1 1.8 -3.9 -3.5 2021 -1.0 -0.7 0.0 -2.1 How many months of production are assured by your current overall order books ? 2020 3.8 3.2 4.0 4.1 2021 3.8 How have your overall orders developed over the past 3 months? 2020 0.8 2.0 1.5 -23.7 -50.1 -46.6 -18.8 13.5 19.6 23.7 2021 10.5 4.3 2.0 16.9 15.9 13.9 16.7 16.0 20.3 21.3 How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 3 months? 2020 17.5 26.6 10.1 -49.4 -14.6 13.5 20.4 20.2 23.8 18.5 2021 12.9 24.5 27.6 16.9 21.1 31.2 34.2 29.6 23.9 20.5 Capacity Utilization Rate of Manufacturing Industry. They will... 2020 75.5 76.0 75.3 61.6 62.6 66.0 70.7 73.3 74.6 75.4 2021 75.4 74.9 74.7 75.9 75.3 76.6 76.7 77.1 78.1 78.0 How has your competitive position on the domestic market developed over the past 3 months? 2020 4.7 -10.0 -3.4 1.8 2021 2.7 3.5 3.5 5.9 How has your competitive position on foreign markets inside the EU developed over the past 3 months? 2020 -4.1 -14.8 -8.7 0.9 2021 -3.8 3.5 2.9 4.3 How has your competitive position on foreign markets outside the EU developed over the past 3 months? 2020 -4.3 -14.4 -12.0 -3.4 2021 -1.4 0.1 3.0 How do you expect your overall orders to develop over the next 3 months? 2020 18.1 29.5 15.2 2021 18.5 25.0 32.6 26.8 23.4 How have your export orders developed over the past 3 months? 2020 -1.2 7.3 -5.9 -40.3 -46.7 2021 11.0 0.9 -0.8 6.4 15.5 2020 -20.8 -17.9 -16.2 -52.7 -54.5 Do you consider your current domestic order books to be...? 3.9 -45.8 3.9 -10.4 25.2 NOVEMBER DECEMBER 21.8 15.1 -11.6 -9.1 -14.1 -14.4 0.7 -2.4 7.1 11.3 35.4 38.3 5.0 4.7 19.8 16.7 4.7 13.5 75.8 75.6 -0.5 9.9 15.8 18.4 -11.7 -11.2 9.3 9.4 -2.8 6.7 31.1 33.9 5.2 13.5 50.1 49.0 45.0 47.7 14.7 15.8 55.9 45.4 1.3 1.5 3.9 5.3 30.5 25.9 16.5 15.6 33.6 34.5 34.0 27.4 19.1 -43.2 -23.1 -4.5 0.3 20.8 15.8 19.4 11.0 17.9 18.7 -47.3 -28.0 -21.8 -16.5 -13.0 2021 -12.7 -10.4 -10.6 -10.6 -15.1 -13.3 -10.6 -9.8 -7.3 -2.7 How have your domestic orders developed over the past 3 months? 2020 -1.7 -2.0 3.2 -24.4 -48.7 -43.8 -16.0 9.5 13.6 16.5 2021 7.1 -1.7 -1.7 13.7 8.1 8.6 9.9 9.5 10.0 13.6 How do you expect your domestic order books to develop over the next 3 months? 2020 12.1 23.4 9.9 -48.3 -12.0 25.5 33.3 24.7 5.9 5.5 2021 14.5 16.3 28.9 19.1 17.9 32.9 29.7 28.8 21.2 14.5 How do you expect your domestic market selling prices to change over the next 3 months? 2020 22.2 24.4 26.6 2.6 10.9 16.7 20.8 32.2 30.9 29.4 2021 34.3 31.9 32.7 36.2 37.0 37.2 37.1 32.2 29.6 35.7 Compared to the last 12 months, how do you expect your fixed investment expenditure to change over the next 12 months? 2020 3.4 5.9 -0.3 -30.1 -18.3 -15.5 -11.3 -7.3 -5.6 3.3 2021 12.5 16.2 17.7 22.8 18.6 19.0 20.8 20.5 23.1 26.9 How has your average unit cost changed over the past 3 months? 2020 36.7 38.7 37.9 34.9 42.0 46.9 47.0 35.7 47.9 52.9 2021 53.7 55.4 57.9 61.5 62.4 59.7 62.3 60.8 61.3 66.0 How do you expect your average unit cost to change over the next 3 months? 2020 39.9 32.5 39.8 45.1 41.9 36.0 35.2 45.5 43.6 45.9 2021 47.3 44.2 43.8 45.8 52.0 49.8 48.8 45.6 45.5 58.9 What is your expectation for inflation (producer prices) rate over the next twelve months (as an annual percentage)? 2020 13.3 13.1 13.2 13.5 12.5 11.8 12.0 12.3 13.0 13.6 2021 16.5 16.4 17.5 19.2 20.6 21.8 23.2 24.6 26.1 27.7 How do you expect the short term Turkish Lira credit interest rate to change over the next three months? 2020 -25.1 -13.2 -5.3 1.1 -0.1 -13.8 3.7 43.7 44.5 49.6 2021 27.4 14.6 21.8 11.6 12.8 6.6 9.6 5.2 -0.2 -3.6 Your opinion about the general course of business in your industry, compared to previous month. 2020 8.5 3.4 -12.1 -57.5 -31.1 4.4 8.5 0.7 -5.3 1.4 2021 4.3 3.1 2.1 -2.9 -0.3 2.5 7.0 5.6 -1.3 -8.3 Note: Weighted and unweighted aggregated results of Business Tendency Survey are published under https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket as time-series.