Technical Analysis Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange - 12 April

Transcription

1. 5 ,255 KAMCO Research Technical Analysis – Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange 12-April-2017 Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange In this Report… General Index……………...…. 1 ADIB...………………………….... 2 UNB..………………….………….. 2 DANA.…..…....……..……….... 3 TAQA………….….…..….……… 3 ADX General Index <.ADI> closed at 4,555.06 point. The market reached the support level at point and recovered after that approaching the resistance area at 4,670 point-4,715 point, as was expected in our last analysis. The current outlook is ambiguous as to where it could go from here, knowing that only above the aforementioned resistance zone would confirm the 4,900 establishment of a new bull trend. On the negative side, a fall below 4,510 point could allow for another slippage to 4,400 point. Weekly and daily RSI indicators are currently looking neutral. 5,000 4,350 Medium-term and long-term investors can stay in the market as long as the index closes above 4,510 point and 4,400 point, respectively. Daily [.ADI List 1 of 62] .ADI BarOHLC, .ADI 12/04/2017, 4,562.99, 4,567.03, 4,533.57, 4,555.06, -7.93, (-0.17%) Cndl, .ADI 12/04/2017, 4,562.99, 4,567.03, 4,533.57, 4,555.06, -7.93, (-0.17%) WMA, .ADI 12/04/2017, 4,566.62 WMA, .ADI 12/04/2017, 4,541.16 WMA, .ADI 12/04/2017, 4,520.95 24/08/2016 - 25/04/2017 (AUH) Price AED 4,715 4,670 4,650 4,610 4,600 4,566.62 4,555.06 4,550 4,555.06 4,541.16 4,510 4,500 4,520.95 4,450 4,400 4,350 4,400 4,350 4,300 4,250 4,200 Auto 4,175 29 05 15 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 25 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 Weekly [.ADI List 1 of 62] .ADI MACD, .ADI 13/04/2017, 23.18, 28.80 02/07/2009 - 07/09/2017 (AUH) Value AED 28.80 100 23.18 0 -100 Auto RSI, .ADI 13/04/2017, 52.516 Value AED 60 52.516 30 Faisal Hasan, CFA Head - Investment Research +(965) 2233 6907 Auto Vol, .ADI 13/04/2017, 423.567M Volume 2.5B 2B 1.5B faisal.hasan@kamconline.com 3,720 1B 500M 423.567M Auto ROC, .ADI 13/04/2017, -1.019 Raed Diab Value AED 10 Vice President 0 -1.019 -10 +(965) 2233 6908 Auto raed.diab@kamconline.com Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 KAMCO Investment Research Department, 16th Floor, Al-Shaheed Tower, Khalid Bin Al-Waleed Street- Sharq, P.O. BOX : 28873, Safat 13149, Kuwait Technical Analysis Tel.: (+965) 13,450 852 626 Fax: (+965) 2249 2395 Email: Kamcoird@kamconline.com Website: http://www.kamconline.com 1
2. KAMCO Research April - 2017 Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Reuters Ticker : <ADIB.AD> Price closed at AED3.60. A reversal black candle is seen on the weekly chart after the horizontal line 7.32 at AED4.00 capped additional momentum. Further weaknesses could continue towards the strong 6.92 support level at AED3.40, which should attract some buying potential but a dip below it will deepen the bearish move and trigger AED2.96. However, back above AED3.85 would be a positive sign but only over AED4.00 would decrease the downside risk. Weekly [.ADI List 1 of 62] ADIB.AD 12/06/2014 - 08/06/2017 (AUH) 5.22 Cndl, ADIB.AD 13/04/2017, 3.94, 3.95, 3.58, 3.60, 0.00, (0.00%) WMA, ADIB.AD 13/04/2017, 3.86 WMA, ADIB.AD 13/04/2017, 3.76 WMA, ADIB.AD 13/04/2017, 3.81 Price AED 4.85 4.55 4.5 3.86 3.81 4 3.76 3.60 3.5 4 3.4 2.96 MACD, ADIB.AD 13/04/2017, 0.04, 0.05 RSI, ADIB.AD 13/04/2017, 38.704 ROC, ADIB.AD 13/04/2017, -5.263 J 0.05 ROC -5.263 M10 3.85 M50 3.75 0.05 Value 0.04 AED M100 3.80 Auto S1 3.40 S2 3.20 Volume S3 2.96 5.785M Auto R1 3.85 Value AED -5.263 Auto R2 4.00 R3 4.55 RSI 63.485 MACD 0.05 A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Union National Bank 38.704 3 Auto Value AED 38.704 Auto Vol, ADIB.AD 13/04/2017, 5.785M RSI MACD Reuters Ticker: <UNB.AD> Price closed at AED4.85. The current technical picture is leaning more towards the bulls, given its move above MAs but the stock should surpass the resistance level at AED4.85 to confirm a positive continuation pattern and promote AED5.90. On the other side, the nearby support levels are located at AED4.30, AED4.05 and AED3.80 but only below the last one would be a serious sell signal that could most likely lead to AED3.13. Weekly [.ADI List 1 of 62] UNB.AD Cndl, UNB.AD 13/04/2017, 4.50, 4.85, 4.50, 4.85, +0.29, (+6.36%) WMA, UNB.AD 13/04/2017, 4.45 WMA, UNB.AD 13/04/2017, 4.36 WMA, UNB.AD 13/04/2017, 4.35 2.5 31/10/2013 - 22/06/2017 (AUH) Price AED 7.25 6 5.9 3.13 5 4.85 4.85 4.45 4 3.8 4.36 4.35 3 1.89 2 0.98 MACD, UNB.AD 13/04/2017, 0.06, 0.05 Auto RSI, UNB.AD 13/04/2017, 63.485 Vol, UNB.AD 13/04/2017, 1.286M Value 0.06 AED 0.05 Auto Value 63.485 AED Auto Volume 1.286M Auto ROC, UNB.AD 13/04/2017, 5.435 Value 5.435 AED Auto ROC 5.435 M10 4.45 M50 4.35 M100 4.35 S1 4.30 S2 3.80 S3 3.13 R1 4.85 R2 5.90 R3 7.25 N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Technical Analysis 2
3. KAMCO Research April - 2017 Dana Gas Reuters Ticker : <DANA.AD> Price closed at AED0.45. It looks like that there is room for further strength on the coming period after finding a support at AED0.42, in addition to the positive RSI indicator. The next layer of resistance comes at AED0.50, while a sustainable close above this would call for a gradual increase to AED0.61. However, losing AED0.42 would put more selling pressure on the stock and allow a retest to the strong 1.04 horizontal line at AED0.37. Weekly [.ADI List 19 of 62] DANA.AD 07/11/2013 - 22/06/2017 (AUH) Cndl, DANA.AD 13/04/2017, 0.44, 0.47, 0.43, 0.45, 0.00, (0.00%) WMA, DANA.AD 13/04/2017, 0.44 WMA, DANA.AD 13/04/2017, 0.52 WMA, DANA.AD 13/04/2017, 0.52 Price AED 0.74 0.7 0.66 0.61 0.5 0.46 0.42 0.37 0.31 MACD, DANA.AD 13/04/2017, -0.03, -0.02 0.6 0.52 0.52 0.5 0.45 0.4 0.44 0.3 Auto Value -0.02 AED -0.03 Auto RSI, DANA.AD 13/04/2017, 37.225 Vol, DANA.AD 13/04/2017, 83.185M 37.225 MACD -0.02 ROC -15.094 M10 0.44 M50 0.52 M100 0.52 S1 0.42 Value AED 37.225 Auto S2 0.37 S3 0.31 Volume R1 0.50 R2 0.61 R3 0.66 RSI 56.992 83.185M Auto ROC, DANA.AD 13/04/2017, -15.094 RSI Value AED -15.094 Auto N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Abu Dhabi National Energy Co. Reuters Ticker: <TAQA.AD> Price closed at AED0.55. The stock witnessed a noticeable upward move last week along with an increase in trading activity. Eyes now have shifted towards the high of last year at AED0.68, which if broken would seal a more constructive outlook to AED0.80 and maybe AED0.90. On the counter side, an aggressive move down is not likely but some attempts to go down could be seen; however, back below AED0.44 would change the tone. Weekly [.ADI List 19 of 62] TAQA.AD 29/03/2012 - 20/07/2017 (AUH) 1.58 Cndl, TAQA.AD 13/04/2017, 0.57, 0.62, 0.54, 0.55, -0.03, (-5.17%) WMA, TAQA.AD 13/04/2017, 0.50 WMA, TAQA.AD 13/04/2017, 0.52 WMA, TAQA.AD 13/04/2017, 0.52 Price AED 1.24 MACD -0.01 1 ROC 12.245 0.8 M10 0.50 M50 0.52 M100 0.52 S1 0.50 S2 0.44 S3 0.36 R1 0.68 R2 0.80 R3 0.90 1.2 1.05 0.9 0.68 0.6 0.55 0.44 0.52 Auto 0.52 0.36 MACD, TAQA.AD 13/04/2017, -0.01, -0.01 Value -0.01 AED -0.01 Auto RSI, TAQA.AD 13/04/2017, 56.992 Value 56.992 AED Auto Vol, TAQA.AD 13/04/2017, 18.497M Volume 18.497M Auto ROC, TAQA.AD 13/04/2017, 12.245 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q1 Technical Analysis Q2 Q3 2013 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2014 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2016 Q4 Q1 Q2 2017 Value 12.245 AED Auto Q3 3
4. KAMCO Research April - 2017 Definitions Technical Analysis : Aims to identify the direction of prices and reveal any indication of possible changes as soon as possible, so it can be used as much as possible in making buying and selling decisions in the most appropriate time in order to minimize risk and maximize profits. Trend: The general direction of a market or of the price of an asset. Resistance: A chart point or range that caps an increase in the level of a stock or index over a period of time. Support: The price level which, historically, a stock has had difficulty falling below. It is thought of as the level at which a lot of buyers tend to enter the stock. Breakout: A signal that prices are beginning to trend, either upward or downward. Bull: An investor who thinks the market, a specific security or an industry is likely to rise. Bear: An investor who thinks the market, a specific security or an industry is likely to decline. Channel: is two parallel trend lines either rising or declining. Consolidation Area: is a sideways movement in prices that interrupts or reverse a trend. Moving Average (MA): The most common applications of MAs are to identify the trend direction and to determine support and resistance levels. MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence): A trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. Relative Strength Index: A technical momentum indicator (ranges from 0 to 100) that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. Overbought: A situation in which the price of a security has risen to such a degree that an oscillator has reached its upper bound. This is generally interpreted as a sign that the price of the asset is becoming overvalued and may experience a pullback. Oversold: A situation in which the price of a security has fallen to such a degree that an oscillator has reached its upper bound. This is generally interpreted as a sign that the price of the asset is becoming undervalued and may represent a buying opportunity for investors. Fibonacci: A term refers to areas of support or resistance and to help identify strategic places for transactions to be placed, target prices or stop losses. On Balance Volume (OBV): is a simple running total of up day (added) and down day (subtracted) volume. If OBV is moving with price, it confirms the current trend. Divergences between OBV and price indicates the price may be due for a reversal. Technical Analysis 4
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6. KAMCO Investment Company - K .S.C. (Public) Al-Shaheed Tower, Khalid Bin Al-Waleed Street- Sharq P.O. BOX : 28873, Safat 13149, State of Kuwait Tel: (+965) 1852626 Fax: (+965) 22492395 Email : Kamcoird@kamconline.com Website : http://www.kamconline.com KAMCO Investment Company