Login Get Started
HelpDesk
 Embed  Download
  of  

or
Sign in to continue reading...

State Bank of Pakistan: Inflation Monitor - April 2019

IM Insights
By IM Insights
4 years ago
State Bank of Pakistan: Inflation Monitor - April 2019

Organisation Tags (1)


Create FREE account or Login to add your comment
Comments (0)


Transcription

  1. Inflation Monitor April 2019 State Bank of Pakistan Statistics & DWH Department
  2. ISSN 1992-8327 (print) ISSN 1992-8335 (online) The analysis in this document is based on data   Provided by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), for domestic inflation analysis Retrieved from IMF & World Bank websites for global inflation analysis http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/inflation_Monitor ii
  3. Contents 1 . Inflation in Brief ………………………………………………… 2. City- wise Inflation …………………………………….................... 3. Income Group- wise Inflation …………………………………………………. 4. Weighted Contribution ………………………………………………… 5. Inflation Diffusion Index ………………………………………………… 6. Domestic Commodity Prices ………………………………………………… 7. Global Commodity Prices ………………………………………………… 8. Seasonal Adjustment in CPI ………………………………………………... Annexure A Table A1 CPI Inflation by Groups Table A2 Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) of CPI Basket Table A3 Top and Bottom 15 Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) Table A3.1 Top and Bottom 15 Contributors to CPI Inflation (MoM) Table A3.2 Top Fifteen Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) Table A3.3 Top Ten Contributors to CPI Food Inflation (YoY) Table A3.4 Top Ten Contributors to CPI Non-Food Inflation (YoY) Table A4 Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected CPI Items Table A5 City-wise CPI Inflation by Income Groups Table A6 City- wise CPI Inflation (YoY) Table A7 Income Group-wise Inflation Table A8 SPI Item-wise Price Movements Table A9 Distribution of Price Changes (YoY)-WPI Items Table A10 Consumer Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Table A11 Wholesale Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Table A12 Price Indices Table A13 International Commodity Prices/ Indices Table A14 CPI Data Series- Original and Seasonally Adjusted Table A15 CPI Food Data Series- Original and Seasonally Adjusted Table A16 CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Table A17 CPI Food Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Table A18 CPI Month-on-Month % Change- Original & Seasonally Adjusted Table A19 CPI Food Month-on-Month % Change- Original & Seasonally Adjusted Figure A1 Figure A2 Figure A3 Figure A4 Annexure B CPI Non-food Inflation Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of CPI Items Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of WPI Commodities Group- wise/ overall Inflation Diffusion Index and Respective/ Overall YoY Inflation Technical Notes Page 1 7 8 10 11 12 12 13 17 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29-30 31-32 33 34 35 36 37 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44-47
  4. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 Team  Muhammad Abdus Salam Joint Director muhammad.abdussalam@sbp.org.pk  Mazhar Hussain Sr. Joint Director mazhar.hussain@sbp.org.pk iv
  5. State Bank of Pakistan Review Inflation in Brief 1 . Headline CPI inflation (2007-08=100) is recorded at level of 8.8 percent on year-on-year basis in April 2019 as compared to 9.4 percent in the previous month and 3.7 percent during corresponding month of last year. 2. CPI inflation on month-on-month basis is recorded at level of 1.3 percent in April 2019 as compared to 1.4 percent in the previous month and 1.8 percent during corresponding month of last year. Seasonally adjusted month-onmonth CPI inflation is recorded at 0.47 percent in April 2019 compared to 1.00 percent in the previous month. 3. Core inflation (trimmed) on year-on-year basis is recorded at 7.2 percent in April 2019 as compared to 7.9 percent in the previous month and 5.0 percent during corresponding month of last year. 4. On month-on-month basis, the Core inflation (trimmed) is recorded at 0.9 percent in April 2019, as compared to 0.4 percent in the previous month and 1.7 percent during corresponding month of last year. 5. Non-food, non-energy inflation measured by CPI Core (NFNE) on year-onyear basis is recorded at 7.0 percent in April 2019 as compared to 8.5 percent in the previous month and was at level during corresponding month of last year. 6. Core NFNE inflation on month-on-month basis recorded at 1.0 percent in April 2019 as compared to 0.5 percent in the previous month. Core NFNE inflation was 2.5 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 7. WPI inflation on year-on-year basis recorded at 13.8 percent in April 2019 as compared to 12.6 percent in the previous month and 4.0 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 1
  6. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 8. WPI inflation on month-on-month basis recorded at 2.3 percent in April 2019 as compared to 1.7 percent in the previous month. It was 1.3 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 9. SPI inflation on year-on-year basis recorded at 12.4 percent in April 2019 as compared to 12.0 percent in the previous month. It was 0.5 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 10. SPI inflation on month-on-month basis recorded at 1.0 percent in April 2019 as compared to 1.6 percent in the previous month. It was 0.7 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 1.1 A New Measure of Core Inflation A new method of permanently excluding relatively volatile commodities from CPI basket in Pakistan has been developed by SBP. This is achieved by making use of trimming approach on past data on monthly CPI changes to isolate a Relatively Stable Component of CPI (RSC-CPI) as a new measure of core inflation. This method ensures inclusion of both food and non-food commodities that show persistent price behavior in Pakistan (see technical notes for details). Developments in core inflation measured by RSC- CPI for the month of April 2019 are described below: 11. Core RSC inflation on year-on-year basis is recorded at 8.0 percent in April 2019 as compared to 9.2 percent in the previous month and 5.3 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 12. Core RSC inflation on month-on-month basis is recorded at 0.9 percent in April 2019 as compared to 0.4 percent in the previous month and 2.0 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 2
  7. State Bank of Pakistan Monthly CPI , WPI and SPI data is summarized in the following table. Table 1.1 Inflation Trends (percent) (Base 2007- 08 = 100) CPI Inflation Period General Core Inflation Nonfood Food NFNE* YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM Trimmed WPI Inflation RSC** YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM SPI*** Inflation YoY MoM Apr-18 3.7 1.8 -0.2 1.5 6.4 2.1 7.0 2.5 5.0 1.7 5.3 2.0 4.0 1.3 0.5 0.7 May-18 4.2 0.5 1.0 1.0 6.4 0.2 7.0 0.2 5.1 0.3 5.3 0.3 5.6 1.3 1.8 0.6 Jun-18 5.2 0.6 3.0 0.8 6.7 0.4 7.1 0.3 5.4 0.2 6.0 0.3 7.6 1.5 3.3 1.6 Jul-18 5.8 0.9 3.5 0.6 7.4 1.2 7.6 1.2 5.9 0.9 6.6 1.0 10.5 2.4 4.5 0.5 Aug-18 5.8 0.2 3.3 0.2 7.6 0.2 7.7 0.2 5.9 0.2 6.7 0.3 11.0 0.8 4.0 -0.2 Sep-18 5.1 -0.1 1.3 -0.7 7.7 0.3 8.0 0.4 5.8 0.1 7.0 0.3 9.2 -1.5 2.2 -0.2 Oct-18 6.8 2.3 2.7 1.9 9.6 2.6 8.2 1.1 6.7 0.8 8.7 2.4 13.1 4.2 4.5 3.0 Nov-18 6.5 0.1 1.8 -0.5 9.8 0.5 8.3 0.4 6.7 0.3 8.9 0.4 13.5 0.7 5.3 1.3 Dec-18 6.2 -0.4 0.9 -1.4 9.8 0.2 8.4 0.3 6.9 0.3 9.0 0.2 12.1 -0.9 5.5 -0.1 Jan-19 7.2 1.0 2.4 0.3 10.4 1.4 8.7 1.1 7.7 1.0 9.4 1.0 9.9 -0.2 6.7 0.4 Feb-19 8.2 0.6 5.0 1.4 10.3 0.1 8.8 0.2 7.7 0.2 9.4 0.2 11.0 0.9 10.0 2.2 Mar-19 9.4 1.4 8.4 2.9 10.1 0.5 8.5 0.5 7.9 0.4 9.2 0.4 12.6 1.7 12.0 1.6 Apr-19 8.8 1.3 8.6 1.7 1.0 7.0 1.0 7.2 0.9 8.0 0.9 13.8 2.3 12.4 1.0 * NFNE is Non-food non-energy 9.0 ** Relatively Stable Component of CPI *** SPI for all income groups combined 3
  8. 4 Apr-18 10 5 0 -5 Apr-19 15 15 Apr-19 Mar-19 Feb-19 Jan-19 Dec-18 Nov-18 Jul-18 Apr-19 Mar-19 Feb-19 Jan-19 Dec-18 Nov-18 Oct-18 Sep-18 Aug-18 YoY Mar-19 f : SPI 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 Feb-19 e: WPI -5 Jan-19 20 -3 Jun-18 b: CPI Food Dec-18 -5 Nov-18 -1 Oct-18 0 Sep-18 1 Oct-18 5 Sep-18 3 Aug-18 10 Aug-18 c: NFNE Jul-18 -3 Jun-18 -5 Jul-18 -1 Jun-18 0 Apr-18 1 May-18 5 Apr-18 Apr-19 Mar-19 Feb-19 Jan-19 Dec-18 Nov-18 Oct-18 Sep-18 Aug-18 Jul-18 Jun-18 3 May-18 Apr-18 May-18 a: CPI May-18 Apr-19 Mar-19 Feb-19 Jan-19 Dec-18 Nov-18 Oct-18 Sep-18 Aug-18 Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18 Apr-18 10 Apr-18 Apr-19 Mar-19 Feb-19 Jan-19 Dec-18 Nov-18 Oct-18 Sep-18 Aug-18 Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18 Inflation Monitor, April 2019 Fig 1.1: Summary of Price Inflation 10 MoM 2 0 5 -2 0 -5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 d: 20% Trimmed Mean 2 10 3 2 0 5 1 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 10 5 0 -5 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5
  9. 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 0 0 -5 -5 d : WPI e: SPI Oct-18 Sep-18 Aug-18 Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18 Apr-18 Mar-18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 Apr-19 Feb-19 Dec-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Mar-19 Feb-19 Jan-19 YoY Aug-18 Dec-18 5 Nov-18 5 Jun-18 c: 20% Trimmed Mean Apr-18 10 Feb-18 10 Oct-17 15 Dec-17 Apr-17 May-17 15 Aug-17 b: NFNE Jun-17 15 Apr-17 Apr-19 Feb-19 Dec-18 Oct-18 Aug-18 Jun-18 Apr-18 Feb-18 Dec-17 Oct-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 State Bank of Pakistan Fig 1.2:Movements in Price Indices (percent) a: CPI 12mma 10 5 0 -5 5
  10. 6 d : WPI 4 2 -2 0 -4 -6 Apr-19 6 Jan-19 -4 Jul-18 -4 Oct-18 -2 Apr-18 -2 Jan-18 0 Oct-17 0 Jul-17 2 Apr-17 2 Jan-17 4 Oct-16 b: NFNE Jul-16 4 Apr-16 Apr-19 Jan-19 Oct-18 Jul-18 Apr-18 Jan-18 Oct-17 Jul-17 Apr-17 Jan-17 Oct-16 Jul-16 Apr-16 Apr-19 Feb-19 Dec-18 Oct-18 Aug-18 Jun-18 Apr-18 Feb-18 Dec-17 Oct-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Aug-16 Jun-16 Apr-16 Inflation Monitor, April 2019 Fig 1.3:Movements in Price Indices -MoM ( percent) 4 a: CPI 2 0 -2 -4 c: 20% Trimmed Mean 4 e: SPI 2 0 -2 -4
  11. State Bank of Pakistan Fig 1 .4: Trends in Consumer Price Inflation b: CPI Inflation (YoY) 240 8 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2016-17 c: Inflation Build-up over June 2017-18 May June April March January February December October July May June April March January February 0 December 200 November 2 October 210 September 4 July 220 November 6 September 230 August Percent 10 August Consumer Price Index (2007-08=100). a: Consumer Price Index 250 2018-19 MoM Seasonally Adjusted Growth Rates 8 2.5 7 2.0 Percent 6 1.5 5 1.0 4 3 0.5 2 0.0 1 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2016-17 2017-18 June May April March February January December November October September July August June -0.5 May April March February January December November October September July August 0 2018-19 2. City wise Inflation CPI Inflation on year-on-year basis in federal and provincial capitals of Pakistan showed mixed trend during April 2019. Among these five cities, the lowest inflation was observed in Lahore at 6.8 percent while the highest inflation was observed in Quetta at 11.3 percent (Table A6 of annexure-A). 7
  12. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 Table 2.1 City-wise Inflation of Selected Cities (percent) Apr-18 Mar-19 Apr-19 MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY Overall CPI 1.8 3.7 1.4 9.4 1.3 8.8 Islamabad 1.0 3.9 1.0 7.7 1.1 7.8 Karachi 2.5 4.0 1.4 8.9 0.7 7.0 Lahore 1.4 2.6 1.5 5.8 2.3 6.8 Peshawar 1.8 3.6 1.1 11.5 1.2 10.8 Quetta 3.5 6.2 1.3 13.0 1.9 11.3 3. Income Group wise Inflation Income group-wise data shows that income group above Rs. 35,000 witnessed higher inflation as compared to other quintiles as well as overall CPI General during April 2019. The income groups (Rs. 8,001- 12,000 & Rs. 12,001- 18,000) observed lowest inflation in general CPI during the month of April 2019. The income group above Rs. 35,000 witnessed lower inflation as compared to other quintiles in food group during April 2019. (Table A7 of annexure-A). Table 3.1 Income Group- wise Inflation (YoY) (percent) General Income Groups 8 Food Non-food Apr-18 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-18 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-18 Mar-19 Apr-19 All Groups Combined 3.7 9.4 8.8 -0.2 8.4 8.6 6.4 10.1 9.0 Up to Rs. 8,000 1.9 8.2 7.6 -1.4 8.5 8.7 5.9 7.8 6.3 Rs. 8,001- 12,000 2.3 8.1 7.5 -1.0 8.4 8.6 5.8 7.8 6.5 Rs. 12,001- 18,000 2.6 8.1 7.5 -0.9 8.5 8.7 5.9 7.8 6.5 Rs. 18,001- 35,000 3.0 9.7 9.1 -0.6 8.5 8.7 6.0 10.6 9.4 Above Rs. 35,000 4.7 10.6 9.9 0.8 8.2 8.5 6.7 11.7 10.6
  13. State Bank of Pakistan Fig 3 .1: Income Group- wise Inflation a: CPI Overall Inflation (YoY) All Groups combined Upto Rs. 8,000 Above Rs. 35,000 Apr-19 Mar-19 Feb-19 Jan-19 Dec-18 Nov-18 Oct-18 Sep-18 Aug-18 Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18 Apr-18 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 b: CPI Food Inflation (YoY) Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Aug-18 Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18 Apr-18 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 c: CPI Non-Food Inflation (YoY) Aug-18 Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18 Apr-18 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 9
  14. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 4. Weighted Contribution The weighted contribution of food group in the overall inflation increased to 38.58 percent during April 2019 from 35.31 percent in previous month. It was -2.00 percent during corresponding month of last year. The weighted contribution of non-food group decreased to 61.42 percent in April 2019 from 64.69 percent in previous month. Table 4.1 Weighted Contribution to CPI Inflation (YoY) Period 10 Food Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & Other Fuel Transport Education Apr-18 -2.00 15.67 39.70 10.10 16.06 Others 20.47 May-18 9.73 13.25 35.28 10.11 14.19 17.43 Jun-18 23.35 10.45 28.60 12.04 11.46 14.10 Jul-18 24.57 9.29 27.60 15.72 10.12 12.70 Aug-18 23.30 9.26 27.58 17.14 10.05 12.67 Sep-18 10.81 10.75 31.29 19.01 13.36 14.80 Oct-18 16.06 8.22 35.92 15.95 7.92 15.94 Nov-18 11.22 9.54 37.56 17.74 7.23 16.70 Dec-18 6.27 10.43 39.55 17.35 7.89 18.50 Jan-19 13.26 8.36 43.58 12.43 6.55 15.81 Feb-19 24.38 7.05 38.18 9.82 5.86 14.72 Mar-19 35.31 6.48 33.22 8.45 3.21 13.33 Apr-19 38.58 5.09 31.02 9.90 3.13 12.28
  15. State Bank of Pakistan 5 . Inflation Diffusion Index Table 5.1 Inflation Diffusion Index - based on MoM change Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 General Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 63.8 40.6 31.5 47.8 47.7 45.9 62.4 52.7 53.1 51.3 43.6 58.3 53.2 Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 50.0 46.3 30.1 60.9 46.5 32.2 54.3 35.0 49.6 62.3 51.8 71.7 44.5 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Clothing & Footwear 100.0 -16.7 33.3 -16.7 0.0 33.3 100.0 66.7 0.0 66.7 66.7 50.0 50.0 84.7 32.2 50.8 35.6 45.8 67.8 61.0 79.7 81.4 61.0 42.4 62.7 61.0 52.8 27.8 36.1 47.2 44.4 16.7 75.0 38.9 16.7 41.7 13.9 19.4 44.4 100.0 69.6 37.7 63.8 79.7 76.8 91.3 91.3 84.1 79.7 84.1 71.0 82.6 48.7 33.3 25.6 41.0 51.3 48.7 69.2 53.8 53.8 48.7 42.1 47.4 61.5 25.6 34.9 30.2 55.8 39.5 25.6 41.9 39.5 48.8 20.9 9.3 48.8 34.9 33.3 0.0 0.0 8.3 16.7 8.3 41.7 41.7 0.0 8.3 8.3 16.7 8.3 64.1 15.4 5.1 28.2 23.1 20.5 35.9 28.2 12.8 17.9 12.8 51.3 51.3 37.5 18.8 6.3 0.0 0.0 68.8 31.3 0.0 25.0 -25.0 0.0 62.5 43.8 100.0 66.7 50.0 33.3 100.0 50.0 66.7 66.7 100.0 66.7 66.7 100.0 83.3 85.7 65.7 42.9 62.9 60.0 77.1 82.9 71.4 74.3 74.3 71.4 60.0 48.6 69.2 39.3 31.4 45.0 48.8 52.7 66.9 58.9 56.5 47.6 42.1 54.3 55.9 Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & other Fuels Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc Health Transport Communication Recreation & Culture Education Restaurant & Hotels Miscellaneous NFNE See annexure B (Technical Notes) for the definition of Inflation Diffusion Index. 11
  16. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 6. Domestic Commodity Prices Table 6.1 Inflation in Domestic CPI Food Commodities (percent) Apr-18 Mar-19 Apr-19 Sr. No Item YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY 1 Wheat 10 Kg -2.23 -2.79 3.89 0.16 4.76 -1.97 2 Wheat Flour Bag 10 Kg -1.37 -0.63 4.32 0.09 3.96 -0.97 3 Rice Basmati Sup. Qlty. Kg 12.68 0.35 6.26 0.05 6.46 0.53 4 Pulse Masoor (Washed) Kg. -12.97 -1.34 3.35 0.13 5.20 0.42 5 Pulse Moong (Washed) Kg. -10.76 -0.18 22.70 12.68 26.20 2.67 6 Pulse Mash (Washed) Kg. -23.26 -1.37 1.45 0.08 2.48 -0.37 7 Pulse Gram Kg. -10.02 -0.01 9.87 0.60 8.89 -0.90 8 Vegetable Ghee (Loose) Kg. 0.70 0.60 9.44 0.83 9.62 0.77 9 Sugar Refined Kg. -12.01 3.29 18.20 2.74 22.17 6.76 10 Milk Fresh (Unboiled) Ltr 3.72 0.83 4.22 0.17 4.03 0.64 11 Tapal Danedar Tea 200 Gm Pkt 10.46 1.83 5.04 0.00 3.23 0.07 12 Beef With Bone Av.Qlty. Kg 8.59 1.85 13.88 0.25 13.26 1.30 13 Mutton Av.Qlty. Kg 12.19 1.65 12.34 0.89 11.48 0.87 14 Chicken Farm Broiler (Live) Kg 4.14 4.34 -1.20 15.89 4.07 9.90 15 Eggs Farm Doz 4.50 -5.07 8.29 -6.32 -8.61 -19.88 16 Potatoes Kg -23.14 -7.19 -15.58 -5.01 -3.50 6.08 17 Onion Kg -8.48 -10.66 15.85 39.27 35.99 4.87 18 Tomatoes Kg -47.53 8.47 315.30 18.82 124.29 -41.42 19 Ginger Kg 24.00 7.07 16.78 -0.58 15.85 6.21 20 Garlic Kg -37.65 -11.00 0.26 11.18 23.12 9.29 Unit MoM 7. Global Commodity Prices Table 7.1 Changes in Major Global Indices (percent) Item/ Group Apr-18 Mar-19 Apr-19 YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM 7.4 2.2 -8.3 -1.4 -10.5 -0.3 Metals 20.0 3.4 -7.2 1.8 -10.9 -0.6 Energy Food 28.0 6.2 -1.2 3.3 -1.9 5.4 Agricultural 5.5 1.8 -7.6 -0.7 -9.1 0.2 Cotton 6.0 0.1 -9.0 3.3 -5.4 4.1 12
  17. State Bank of Pakistan 8 . Seasonal Adjustment in CPI Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the seasonal effects from a time series after decomposing it into seasonal, trend, cycle and irregular components. The purpose is to identify the different components of the time series and thus provide a better understanding of its underlying behavior. Seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred for analyzing general price trends in the economy because they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year. Various statistical methods can be used to decompose a time series into its constituent components. The State Bank of Pakistan uses X-12- ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method for this purpose. The changes in consumer prices are normally reported in terms of year-on-year and month-on-month basis. Seasonal adjustment is particularly useful for analyzing month-on-month changes. The monthly data series of Consumer Price Index (CPI) from July 2008 to April 2019 has been used for seasonal adjustment analysis. The seasonal analysis is carried out without taking trading-day or Islamic calendar month’s effects. Figure 8.1 reveals that seasonality in CPI has been increasing over the period of last four years. Average seasonal factors reveal strong seasonality during the calendar year. There is an upward seasonality during the months from July to December and downward seasonality in the remaining months of the year. Upward and downward seasonality is above and below the trend line respectively. It is important to note that seasonal factors are estimates based on present and past experience and that future data may not necessarily show the same pattern of seasonal factors. 13
  18. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 Fig. 8.1 Seasonal Factors of CPI Average Seasonal Factors of CPI Seasonal Factors of CPI 103 102 102 101 101 100 100 99 99 98 98 97 97 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 103 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 99.5 99.5 99.0 99.2 100. 99.9 99.9 Note: Data Available in Annex Table 16. Fig. 8.2 Seasonal Factors of CPI Food Average Seasonal Factors of CPI Food Seasonal Factors of CPI Food 103 103 102 102 101 101 100 100 99 99 98 98 Note: Data Available in Annex Table 17. 14 Feb-19 Apr-19 Oct-18 Dec-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Feb-18 Apr-18 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Feb-17 Apr-17 Oct-16 Dec-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 97 Apr-16 97 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 100.8 101.2 101.0 101.4 101.2 99.37 98.78 97.90 98.56 99.98 99.73 99.86
  19. State Bank of Pakistan Figures 8 .3 & 8.4 show that seasonally adjusted series are relatively smoother than the original series due to the removal of the seasonal variations. The trend follows the long-term movement in original series, and is smoother than the original series because some irregular fluctuations have been removed. Fig. 8.3 Seasonal Plots of CPI Seasonal Plot- Original Series of CPI 250 FY15 FY16 Seasonal Plot -Adjusted Series of CPI FY17 FY18 FY19 250 240 240 230 230 220 220 210 210 200 200 190 190 180 180 170 170 160 160 150 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 150 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Fig. 8.4 Seasonal Plots of CPI (Food) Seasonal Plot -Adjusted Series of CPI Food Seasonal Plot- Original Series of CPI Food 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 15
  20. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 Fig. 8.5 Month-on-Month Percent Changes in CPI Seasonally adjusted CPI for April 2019 stood at 243.37 against 244.03 in original series showing decrease of 0.66 on account of adjustment of upward seasonality in April 2019. MoM % Changes in CPI Original Series 3 Seasonally Adjusted Series 2 1 0 -2 Apr-19 Mar-19 Feb-19 Jan-19 Dec-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Jul-18 May-18 Jun-18 -3 Apr-18 Seasonally adjusted CPI food group for April 2019 stood at 257.21 against 257.44 in original series showing decrease of 0.23 on account of adjustment of upward seasonality in April 2019. -1 MoM Annualize % Change in CPI Original Series 40 Seasonally Adjusted Series 30 20 Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted CPI series stood at 0.47% reflecting an increase during April 2019 over previous month and an increase of 1.27% in original series. 0 -10 -20 Apr-19 Mar-19 Feb-19 Jan-19 Dec-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18 -30 Apr-18 Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted CPI food group series stood at 0.94% reflecting an increase during April 2019 over previous month and an increase of 1.67% in original series. 10 Fig. 8.6 Month-on-Month Percent Changes in CPI Food MoM % Changes in CPI Food Original Series 4 Seasonally Adjusted Series 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 Apr-19 Mar-19 Feb-19 Jan-19 Dec-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Jul-18 May-18 Jun-18 -3 Apr-18 It is important to note that inflation rates should be analyzed on the basis of seasonally adjusted rates. This is especially needed for inflation rates on month-on-month basis. MoM Annualize % Change in CPI Food Original Series 50 The most recent annual rate of inflation is usually indicated by annualizing the seasonally adjusted month-on-month rate. Annualized rate of CPI inflation in April 2019 (corresponding to the seasonally adjusted month-on-month rate) is 5.79 percent. 30 20 10 0 -10 Apr-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Dec-18 Nov-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 May-18 Jun-18 -20 Apr-18 16 Seasonally Adjusted Series 40
  21. State Bank of Pakistan Annexure A Table A1 : CPI Inflation by Groups (percent) MoM change I. Food Group Food & NonAlcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Restaurant & Hotels Weight s 37.5 YoY change Apr-18 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-18 Mar-19 Apr-19 1.5 2.9 1.7 -0.2 8.4 8.6 34.8 1.5 3.2 1.8 0.7 8.2 8.5 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 -17.0 12.3 12.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 5.5 6.5 6.0 62.5 2.1 0.5 1.0 6.4 10.1 9.0 7.6 2.5 0.7 0.7 7.0 7.2 5.3 29.4 2.3 0.0 0.9 5.5 11.5 10.1 4.2 2.0 0.8 0.9 6.4 9.5 8.3 2.2 0.8 0.6 1.1 5.0 8.1 8.4 7.2 0.3 1.1 1.6 6.3 13.0 14.5 Communication Recreation & Culture Education 3.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 7.7 7.5 2.0 3.8 1.8 1.2 6.1 9.7 6.9 3.9 2.3 1.0 1.8 13.0 6.1 5.6 Miscellaneous 2.8 2.8 0.7 0.7 7.7 10.2 7.9 100.0 1.8 1.4 1.3 3.7 9.4 8.8 II. Non-Food Group Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elect, Gas &. other Fuels Furnishing & Household Equip. Health Maintenance etc Transport Headline Table A2: Distribution of Price changes (YoY) of CPI basket No. of items in each inflation range Groups I. Food Group Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Restaurant & Hotels II. Non-Food Group Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & other Fuels % changes Apr-19 8.6 8.5 12.1 6.0 9.0 5.3 10.1 Subdued increase (>0% but <5%) Moderate increase (5% but less than 10%) Double digit increase (10% or more) Total number of items Decrease or no change (0% or less) Apr-18 125 113 6 6 348 59 36 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-18 36 9 49 41 21 38 19 33 8 44 39 21 33 15 3 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 4 2 0 4 2 51 28 120 97 114 124 63 5 6 16 24 28 26 10 12 1 6 7 11 16 7 Apr-19 126 114 6 6 348 59 36 8.3 69 69 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc 8.4 39 39 Health 14.5 43 43 Transport 7.5 12 12 Communication 6.9 39 39 Recreation & Culture 5.6 16 16 Education 7.9 35 35 Miscellaneous 8.8 473 474 Overall Note: Prices of 13 seasonal items were not reported during the month. Apr-19 38 34 4 0 99 3 12 1 0 27 11 32 35 9 23 8 14 6 4 0 1 5 4 3 5 3 1 21 14 4 17 3 12 12 4 7 16 6 10 6 7 0 8 3 19 8 14 0 10 1 14 4 8 2 10 10 3 14 21 2 8 6 10 87 37 169 138 135 162 82 137 17
  22. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 Table A3: Top and Bottom 15 Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) in April 2019 Top 15 Contributors YoY Change Weighted Items/ Contributors Weights Apr-18 Apr-19 Contribution Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 House Rent 21.81 7.04 6.35 14.14 Gas 1.58 0.00 85.31 10.74 Motor Fuel 3.03 10.56 19.51 4.93 Fresh Vegetables 1.75 -14.30 23.34 4.83 Meat 2.43 9.84 12.63 4.63 Electricity 4.40 0.00 8.48 4.49 Fresh Fruits 1.86 2.12 15.81 4.20 Milk Fresh 6.68 3.78 4.01 3.82 Transport Services 2.70 3.19 13.32 3.64 Cigarettes 1.39 -20.15 14.57 3.15 Education 3.94 12.99 5.58 3.13 Tomatoes 0.42 -47.53 124.30 2.77 Sugar 1.04 -12.01 22.17 2.23 Cotton Cloth 1.73 6.67 8.20 1.75 Onion 0.51 -8.47 35.99 Total 55.28 1.69 70.14 Bottom 15 Contributors Betel by Leaves & Nuts Contribution A.1Ranked Weighted Eggs 2 3 Potatoes 4 Gram Whole 5 Postal Services 6 Kerosene Oil 7 Medical Equipments 8 Wheat Product 9 Mustard Oil 10 Motor Vehicle Tax 11 Blades 12 Beans 13 Gur 14 Pulse Mash (Washed) 15 Marriage Hall Charges Total 18 0.02 281.64 -37.21 -0.41 0.46 4.50 -8.61 -0.37 0.45 -23.14 -3.50 -0.12 0.16 -2.31 -5.04 -0.11 0.07 9.24 0.17 0.00 0.01 30.66 9.38 0.01 0.01 3.54 8.48 0.01 0.10 -1.65 1.31 0.01 0.10 4.33 2.82 0.02 0.11 0.00 2.38 0.03 0.03 3.89 8.73 0.03 0.03 5.61 9.80 0.03 0.02 -7.11 19.71 0.05 0.21 -23.25 2.48 0.06 0.08 5.95 7.56 1.83 0.08 -0.68
  23. State Bank of Pakistan Table A3 .1: Top and Bottom 15 Contributors to CPI Inflation (MoM) in April 2019 Top 15 Contributors MoM Change Items/ Contributors Weights Mar-19 Apr-19 Weighted Contribution Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Fresh Fruits 1.86 12.52 24.21 38.87 House Rent 21.81 0.00 1.30 19.74 Fresh Vegetables 1.75 24.43 10.93 16.33 Chicken 1.36 15.88 9.90 9.06 Motor Fuel 3.03 1.54 4.22 7.93 Education 3.94 1.00 1.80 6.79 Sugar 1.04 2.74 6.76 5.05 Milk Fresh 6.68 0.17 0.62 3.96 Meat 2.43 0.47 1.15 3.04 Cotton Cloth 1.73 2.30 1.71 2.52 Onion 0.51 39.28 4.87 1.93 Cooking Oil 1.75 0.18 1.83 1.56 Personal Equipments 0.84 0.96 1.55 1.56 Vegetable Ghee 2.07 0.58 1.32 1.38 Potatoes 0.45 -5.00 6.08 Total 51.27 1.20 120.91 Bottom 15 Contributors Tomatoes A.1Ranked by Weighted Contribution 2 Eggs 3 Wheat Flour 4 Transport Services 5 Pulse Gram 6 Gram Whole 7 Dry Fruits 8 Besan 9 Pulse Mash (Washed) 10 Wheat Product 11 Beans 12 Gas 13 Postal Services 14 Woolen Readymade Garments 15 Electricity Total 0.42 18.83 -41.42 -22.93 0.46 -6.32 -19.88 -6.37 4.16 0.20 -0.77 -2.29 2.70 0.97 -0.27 -0.55 0.24 0.60 -0.90 -0.20 0.16 -0.70 -1.20 -0.17 0.25 0.45 -0.53 -0.14 0.15 0.15 -0.45 -0.06 0.21 0.09 -0.37 -0.06 0.10 -0.41 -0.80 -0.05 0.03 1.23 -0.54 -0.01 1.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.40 0.00 0.00 15.31 0.00 -32.83 19
  24. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 Table A3.2: Top Fifteen Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) in April 2019 YoY Change Items/ Contributors Weights Weighted Contribution Apr-18 Apr-19 0.42 1.58 0.51 0.23 1.75 1.04 0.02 0.19 3.03 0.54 0.04 1.86 1.39 2.70 2.43 17.75 -47.53 0.00 -8.47 -10.76 -14.30 -12.01 -7.11 12.12 10.56 2.93 3.18 2.12 -20.15 3.19 9.84 124.30 85.31 35.99 26.20 23.34 22.17 19.71 19.63 19.51 17.36 16.70 15.81 14.57 13.32 12.63 2.77 10.74 1.69 0.68 4.83 2.23 0.05 0.39 4.93 1.16 0.13 4.20 3.15 3.64 4.63 45.23 21.81 6.68 4.40 4.16 3.94 3.15 3.03 2.70 2.43 2.07 1.86 1.75 1.75 1.73 1.58 63.07 7.04 3.78 0.00 -0.47 12.99 0.26 10.56 3.19 9.84 1.04 2.12 -14.30 2.03 6.67 11.18 6.35 4.01 8.48 2.66 5.58 7.78 19.51 13.32 12.63 7.97 15.81 23.34 7.61 8.20 5.27 14.14 3.82 4.49 1.18 3.13 1.62 4.93 3.64 4.63 1.21 4.20 4.83 0.95 1.75 0.82 55.32 A. Ranked by Percentage Change Tomatoes A.1 Ranked by Weighted Contribution Gas 2 Onion 3 Pulse Moong 4 Fresh Vegetables 5 Sugar 6 Gur 7 News Papers 8 Motor Fuel 9 10 Spices 11 Honey 12 Fresh Fruits 13 Cigarettes 14 Transport Services 15 Meat Total B. Ranked by Weights House Rent 1 A.2 Ranked by Weighted Contribution Milk Fresh Electricity 3 Wheat Flour 4 Education 5 Communication & Apparatus 6 Motor Fuel 7 Transport Services 8 Meat 9 10 Vegetable Ghee 11 Fresh Fruits 12 Fresh Vegetables 13 Cooking Oil 14 Cotton Cloth 15 Rice Total Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in YoY change in CPI, which is 8.8 percent in April 2019. 20
  25. State Bank of Pakistan Table A3 .3: Top Ten Contributors to CPI Food Inflation (YoY) in April 2019 YoY Change Items/ Contributors A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution Fresh Vegetables 1 Meat 2 Fresh Fruits 3 Milk Fresh 4 Cigarettes 5 Tomatoes 6 Sugar 7 Onion 8 Vegetable Ghee 9 10 Wheat Flour Total Weights Weighted Contribution Apr-18 Apr-19 1.75 2.43 1.86 6.68 1.39 0.42 1.04 0.51 2.07 4.16 22.33 -14.30 9.84 2.12 3.78 -20.15 -47.53 -12.01 -8.47 1.04 -0.47 23.34 12.63 15.81 4.01 14.57 124.30 22.17 35.99 7.97 2.66 4.83 4.63 4.20 3.82 3.15 2.77 2.23 1.69 1.21 1.18 29.71 0.42 0.51 0.23 1.75 1.04 0.02 0.54 0.04 1.86 1.39 7.83 -47.53 -8.47 -10.76 -14.30 -12.01 -7.11 2.93 3.18 2.12 -20.15 124.30 35.99 26.20 23.34 22.17 19.71 17.36 16.70 15.81 14.57 2.77 1.69 0.68 4.83 2.23 0.05 1.16 0.13 4.20 3.15 20.90 B. Ranked by Percentage Change Tomatoes 1 A.2 Ranked Onionby Weighted Contribution Pulse Moong 3 Fresh Vegetables 4 Sugar 5 Gur 6 Spices 7 Honey 8 Fresh Fruits 9 10 Cigarettes Total C. Ranked by Weights Milk Fresh 1 A.2 Ranked Weighted Contribution Wheatby Flour Meat 3 Vegetable Ghee 4 Fresh Fruits 5 Fresh Vegetables 6 Cooking Oil 7 Rice 8 Cigarettes 9 10 Chicken 6.68 3.78 4.01 3.82 4.16 -0.47 2.66 1.18 2.43 9.84 12.63 4.63 2.07 1.04 7.97 1.21 1.86 2.12 15.81 4.20 1.75 -14.30 23.34 4.83 1.75 2.03 7.61 0.95 1.58 11.18 5.27 0.82 1.39 -20.15 14.57 3.15 1.36 4.14 4.06 0.61 Total 25.05 25.39 Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in YoY change in CPI Food, which is 8.6 percent in April 2019. 21
  26. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 Table A3.4: Top Ten Contributors to CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY) in April 2019 YoY Change Items/ Contributors A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution House Rent 1 Gas 2 Motor Fuel 3 Electricity 4 Transport Services 5 Education 6 Cotton Cloth 7 Communication & Apparatus 8 Personal Equipments 9 10 Household Servent Total Weights Weighted Contribution Apr-18 Apr-19 21.81 1.58 3.03 4.40 2.70 3.94 1.73 3.15 0.84 1.04 44.23 7.04 0.00 10.56 0.00 3.19 12.99 6.67 0.26 10.49 8.14 6.35 85.31 19.51 8.48 13.32 5.58 8.20 7.78 10.94 8.38 14.14 10.74 4.93 4.49 3.64 3.13 1.75 1.62 1.55 1.20 47.17 1.58 0.19 3.03 2.70 0.84 0.66 0.25 0.32 0.24 0.79 10.62 0.00 12.12 10.56 3.19 10.49 8.19 6.60 7.88 2.12 3.40 85.31 19.63 19.51 13.32 10.94 10.75 10.70 10.66 10.43 10.36 10.74 0.39 4.93 3.64 1.55 0.68 0.31 0.43 0.28 0.99 23.93 21.81 4.40 3.94 3.15 3.03 2.70 1.73 1.58 1.55 1.49 45.39 7.04 0.00 12.99 0.26 10.56 3.19 6.67 0.00 6.17 5.39 6.35 8.48 5.58 7.78 19.51 13.32 8.20 85.31 2.16 5.79 14.14 4.49 3.13 1.62 4.93 3.64 1.75 10.74 0.30 1.04 45.77 B. Ranked by Percentage Change 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Gas News Papers Motor Fuel Transport Services Personal Equipments Motor Vehicle Plastic Products Utensils Motor Vehicle Accessories Washing Soap & Detergent Total C. Ranked by Weights 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 House Rent Electricity Education Communication & Apparatus Motor Fuel Transport Services Cotton Cloth Gas Footware Personal Care Total Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in YoY change in CPI Non-food, which is 9.0 percent in April 2019. 22
  27. State Bank of Pakistan Table A4 : Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected CPI Items: April 2019 Decrease or no change Lemon, Gram Whole Yellow Av.Qlty, Eggs Farm, Potatoes, Ice, Coconut Dry Av.Qlty., Malta/Mosambi. Miscellaneo us Subdued increase (Greater than 0% but less than 5%) Wheat,Sweetmeat (Mixed), Rooh Afza, Jam Ahmed/Mitchelles, Rice Basmati Broken Av.Ql. Betel Nuts. Gents Shoe, Art 1109 Servis, Gents Sandal Bata, Gents Shoes Paul Bata, Ladies Spoung Chappal Bata, Ladies Sandal Bata, Gents Spoung Chappal Bata. Dopatta Cotton Av. Qlty, Pant Boy 24"/26" Length, Tailoring Coat-Pant Suit, Tailoring Suit (Female), Foot Wear Local (Children), Azarband Cotton Avg.Qlty. Elect.Charges Upto 50 Units. Sand (Black Pit Sand), Cement Blocks (6"X8"X12"), Bajree, Electician Wage Rate(P/Pnt), Firewood Whole, Elect.Charges 01 - 100 Units, Elect.Charges 101 - 300 Units. Finis 500 Ml, Quilt (Lihaf) 3 Kg. Cotton, Towel(3'X2') Av. Qlty, Electric Blub Energy Saver 14 Watt, Matress Single(4"Thick). Galxos-D (450 Gm), Burnol Renitec Tab. 5 Mg., Sugar Cream 30 Gm, Vicks Test (Random/Fasting), Vaporub/ Balm, Calcium Septran Tablets, Gripe-Water Syrup Sandoz. Woodwards. Air Fare Economy Class., Car Service Charges, Motor Plateform Ticket, Cycle Hero 70 Cc, Motor Motorcycle Yamaha 100 Cc, Cycle Service Charges, Car Full Tonga Charges. Tax For 800 Cc To 1300 Cc. Mobile Cell Charges, Postal Mobile Set Registration Charges, T.C.S. Nokia/Sony/Ericsson Av.Qlty, Ch. Min.Within Zone. Telephone Set Av. Qlty, Fax Charges (Local). Cinema Non-A/C High English Book Class Ix Or X, Class, Weekly "Mag", Urdu Book Class Ix/X V.C.P. (T.B.Board), Cable Charges, Panasonic/Lg/National, Tv Personnel Computer Licence Fee Domestic, (Branded), English Book Video Cassette Blank. Ba/B.Sc. Coaching Fee For Class Ix/ Pvt School Fee Eng.Med X, Coaching Charges For (Class-I), Pvt School Fee Class Xi/ Xii Commerce Eng.Med (Class-X). Group. Moderate increase Double digit increase (10% or more) (5% but less than 10%) Beans (Lal Lobia), Vegetable Ghee (Loose), Coffee-Nescafe 75 Gm, Lactogen 400 Grams, Pulse Gram, Ice Cream Walls. Tomatoes, Watermelon (Turbooz), Bottlegourd, Cocumber (Kheera), Muskmelon (Kharbooza), Tinda, Cardamom Small Av.Qlty, Onion, Cauliflower, Chillies Green, Pistachio Av.Qlty Betel Leaves. Cigarettes Capstan 20,S, Cigarettes Morven Gold 20,S, Cigarettes K-20,S, Cigarettes Gold Leaf 20,S. Pullover Gents Oxford/Bon, Pullover Ladies Oxford/Bon, Handkerchief Sup. Qlty Pak, Secondhand Sweater For Men, Heavy Wt Suiting Law.Pur Av. Qlty, Pullover (Gents).Others Av.Qlty, Unskilled Labour Wage Rat, Shirting Av.Qlty., Tropical Kerosene Oil, Cement (Local), Suiting Law.Pur, Shirt Elect. Charges Overall/Boy 24"/26" Length, Sports Combined, Mason (Raj)Shoes, Wage Underwear Av.Qlty Rate, Plumber WageMedium Rate, Size, Second-Hand Coat Timber Shesham Log. For Men, Wear Local Tawa Foot Iorn (Medium Size) (Male), Brassier Avg. Qlty, WaterSup.Qlty, Cooler 9/10 Vest For Men Av.Qlty., Ltr., Split Air ConditionerLawn 1.5 Printed GulSet Ahmed/Al Karam, Ton, Sofa Wooden With Handkerchief Avg.Qlty Pak, Foam. Tailoring Charges Pant (Men), Urine Test (Dr) Charges, Dopatta Georgette Av.Qlty, Doctor (Mbbs) Clinic Fee, Washing Ch. (KamizBlood Test (Cp) Charges, Shalwar), Secondhand Winter Polyfax Eye Ointment. Jacket, Dry Cleaning Suit Coat Bicycle With Tyres & Tube, Pant, Heavy Wt Suiting Tyre Puncture Charges, Law.Pur Sup. Qlty, Brassier Motorcycle Honda Cd-70, Av.Qlty, Chaddar (W/Wear) Minibus Fare Max.Within (2X2.5 Mtr), Pant Cloth Wash City. & Wear Av.Qlty, Child Shoe Power Lite Bata, Long Cloth 57" Gul Ahmed/Al Karam, Shoe Polish Charges Avg. Pencil Goldfish/Deer, Ball Pen (Local), Maths Book Calss V (T.B.Board), Fountain Pen Hero/Wings/China, Maths Book Class Ix Or X, Paper Fool Scape (27"X17"). Daily "Nawa-E-Waqt", Daily "Jang", Weekly "Akhbar-E-Jahan", Photostate Paper 70 Gm, Cinema A/C High Class, Daily "Dawn", Pen Ink Dollor 57 Ml Bottle, Urdu Book Ba/B.Sc. I.T. Tuition Fees. Mba Tuition Fee, Govt. Med. College Fee Mbbs Ist Year, Pvt Eng.Colege Fee (Ist Year), Govt. University Fee Msc/ Ma, Govt. Engg. Coll. Fee Ist Year, Pvt Med.College Fee Mbbs(Ist Year). Gas Chrg All Over 500 Mmbtu, Gas Chrg Over 300 - 500 Mmbtu, Gas Chrg Overall/ Combined, Gas Chrg Over 200 - 300 Mmbtu, Gas Chrg Over 100 - 200 Mmbtu, Elect.Charges Above 1000 Units, Gas Chrg Up To 100 Cub Mmbtu, Synthetic Enemal Ici. Tube Light Philips 40 Watt, Harpic, Tea Set Pak. China Wear 21 Pcs, Non Stick Cooking Pan, Boot Polish Cherry/Kiwi 50 Ml, Frying Pan Steel Avg. Qlty, Sewing Machine (Singer), Robin Blue (35 Gms), Chair Shesham Wood. Betnovate-N Ointment 5 Gm, Dettol (Medium), Calpol Syrup 60 Ml., Sancos Syrup (50 Ml.), Flagyl Tab. 200 Mg., Trisil Tab., Brufen Tabs 200-Mg., Cac. 1000 Tab. Bus Fare Outside City (Non A/C), Cng, High Speed Diesel Hsd, Bus Fare Max (Within City), Bus Fare Min (Within City), Car Honda Civic 1500 Cc, Tyre Motor Cycle Without Tube, Petrol Super, Train Fare Eco. 1-100 Km. Telephone Charges Local Call, Telephone Charges Outside City. Chicken Biryani Full/Double, Cooked Dal (Av. Hotel), Bread Tandoori St. Size. Cooked Mutton (Av. Hotel), Tea Prepared (Ordinary). Restaura nt & Hotels Education Recreation & Culture Communic ation Transport Health Furnishing & Household Housing, Water, Equip. Elect, Gas & other Maintenance Fuels etc Clothing & Footwear Alcoholic Food & NonBeverages Alcoholic & Beverages Tobacco Groups Toothpaste Macleans 70 Gms. Haircut Charges For Men, Shaving Charges, Lipstick S.Miss/Medora, Hair Removing Cream (Eu-Cream). Talc Powder Viceroy/ Black Cat, Hair Oil Amla/Chambeli, Shaving Cream TouchMe/Admiral. Gold Tezabi 24 Ct, Toothpowder Dentonic 90 Gms, Wrist Watch Gents Citizen, Toilet Soap Lux 95 Gms, Silver Tezabi 24 Ct, Toothpast Med Size Colgate 70Gms. 23
  28. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 Table A5: City- wise CPI Inflation by Income Groups, April 2019 General MoM YoY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Rawalpindi Islamabad Lahore Gujranwala Sialkot Faisalabad Multan Sargodha Bahawalpur Karachi Hyderabad Sukkur Larkana Peshawar Bannu Quetta Khuzdar 7.7 6.0 6.0 7.5 6.5 8.9 6.9 7.7 5.1 6.4 7.4 6.3 7.7 9.7 8.4 10.6 7.9 7.7 6.0 6.0 7.5 6.5 8.9 6.9 7.7 5.1 6.4 7.4 6.3 7.7 9.7 8.4 10.6 7.9 General MoM YoY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Rawalpindi Islamabad Lahore Gujranwala Sialkot Faisalabad Multan Sargodha Bahawalpur Karachi Hyderabad Sukkur Larkana Peshawar Bannu Quetta Khuzdar 8.4 6.8 6.5 8.2 6.5 9.5 7.6 8.0 5.4 7.2 8.9 5.9 7.4 10.7 9.0 11.3 6.3 8.4 6.8 6.5 8.2 6.5 9.5 7.6 8.0 5.4 7.2 8.9 5.9 7.4 10.7 9.0 11.3 6.3 General MoM YoY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 24 Rawalpindi Islamabad Lahore Gujranwala Sialkot Faisalabad Multan Sargodha Bahawalpur Karachi Hyderabad Sukkur Larkana Peshawar Bannu Quetta Khuzdar 8.8 8.1 7.3 8.6 7.0 9.3 7.7 8.4 5.2 7.0 11.4 6.9 7.2 11.2 9.2 11.3 7.0 8.8 8.1 7.3 8.6 7.0 9.3 7.7 8.4 5.2 7.0 11.4 6.9 7.2 11.2 9.2 11.3 7.0 Up to Rs: 8000 Food Non-Food MoM YoY MoM YoY 9.2 6.1 8.5 10.8 7.6 11.5 8.8 8.0 6.3 8.8 6.6 6.7 11.4 11.5 8.6 13.0 11.1 9.2 6.1 8.5 10.8 7.6 11.5 8.8 8.0 6.3 8.8 6.6 6.7 11.4 11.5 8.6 13.0 11.1 6.1 5.9 2.7 3.8 5.3 6.0 4.7 7.4 3.9 3.5 8.5 6.0 4.0 7.7 8.1 7.9 4.3 6.1 5.9 2.7 3.8 5.3 6.0 4.7 7.4 3.9 3.5 8.5 6.0 4.0 7.7 8.1 7.9 4.3 Rs 12001-18000 Food Non-Food MoM YoY MoM YoY 8.8 6.5 8.3 10.4 6.8 11.6 8.6 7.3 5.9 8.5 7.3 5.6 10.2 11.2 8.6 12.9 9.7 8.8 6.5 8.3 10.4 6.8 11.6 8.6 7.3 5.9 8.5 7.3 5.6 10.2 11.2 8.6 12.9 9.7 8.1 7.1 4.7 6.2 6.3 7.7 6.6 8.7 5.1 5.8 10.6 6.2 5.1 10.4 9.3 9.9 3.1 8.1 7.1 4.7 6.2 6.3 7.7 6.6 8.7 5.1 5.8 10.6 6.2 5.1 10.4 9.3 9.9 3.1 Above Rs 35000 Food Non-Food MoM YoY MoM YoY 8.7 6.9 8.0 10.1 6.6 11.2 9.0 6.7 4.7 7.5 8.4 5.7 8.8 10.2 7.7 11.3 10.2 8.7 6.9 8.0 10.1 6.6 11.2 9.0 6.7 4.7 7.5 8.4 5.7 8.8 10.2 7.7 11.3 10.2 8.8 8.7 6.8 7.8 7.2 8.4 7.1 9.1 5.4 6.8 12.9 7.5 6.5 11.7 9.9 11.3 5.4 8.8 8.7 6.8 7.8 7.2 8.4 7.1 9.1 5.4 6.8 12.9 7.5 6.5 11.7 9.9 11.3 5.4 General MoM YoY 7.7 6.3 6.0 7.6 6.1 9.0 7.1 7.7 4.8 6.7 7.8 6.1 7.4 9.9 8.7 10.4 7.5 7.7 6.3 6.0 7.6 6.1 9.0 7.1 7.7 4.8 6.7 7.8 6.1 7.4 9.9 8.7 10.4 7.5 General MoM YoY 8.6 7.2 6.4 8.3 6.6 9.3 7.7 7.9 5.1 7.1 9.3 6.0 7.1 10.6 8.9 11.4 6.2 8.6 7.2 6.4 8.3 6.6 9.3 7.7 7.9 5.1 7.1 9.3 6.0 7.1 10.6 8.9 11.4 6.2 General MoM YoY 8.6 7.8 6.8 8.3 6.7 9.4 7.7 8.1 5.3 7.0 9.7 6.5 7.5 10.8 8.9 11.3 7.2 8.6 7.8 6.8 8.3 6.7 9.4 7.7 8.1 5.3 7.0 9.7 6.5 7.5 10.8 8.9 11.3 7.2 Rs 8001- 12000 Food Non-Food MoM YoY MoM YoY 8.8 6.3 8.4 10.4 6.9 11.5 8.7 7.2 5.8 8.7 6.7 6.3 10.7 11.2 8.3 12.8 11.3 8.8 6.3 8.4 10.4 6.9 11.5 8.7 7.2 5.8 8.7 6.7 6.3 10.7 11.2 8.3 12.8 11.3 6.7 6.2 3.2 4.8 5.3 6.5 5.5 8.1 4.0 4.6 9.0 5.9 4.4 8.6 9.1 8.1 3.8 6.7 6.2 3.2 4.8 5.3 6.5 5.5 8.1 4.0 4.6 9.0 5.9 4.4 8.6 9.1 8.1 3.8 Rs 18001-35000 Food Non-Food MoM YoY MoM YoY 9.0 7.0 8.1 10.0 6.7 11.8 8.8 6.9 5.5 8.3 7.4 6.1 9.7 11.1 8.8 12.5 9.6 9.0 7.0 8.1 10.0 6.7 11.8 8.8 6.9 5.5 8.3 7.4 6.1 9.7 11.1 8.8 12.5 9.6 Combined Food MoM YoY 8.8 6.8 8.2 10.3 6.8 11.5 8.8 7.2 5.6 7.9 7.6 6.0 10.2 10.9 8.4 12.3 10.3 8.8 6.8 8.2 10.3 6.8 11.5 8.8 7.2 5.6 7.9 7.6 6.0 10.2 10.9 8.4 12.3 10.3 8.3 7.4 4.9 6.9 6.4 7.4 6.8 8.6 4.9 6.2 11.0 6.0 5.3 10.3 9.1 10.4 3.6 8.3 7.4 4.9 6.9 6.4 7.4 6.8 8.6 4.9 6.2 11.0 6.0 5.3 10.3 9.1 10.4 3.6 Non-Food MoM YoY 8.4 8.4 5.8 7.0 6.7 8.0 6.9 8.7 5.2 6.3 11.4 6.8 6.0 10.8 9.2 10.7 5.1 8.4 8.4 5.8 7.0 6.7 8.0 6.9 8.7 5.2 6.3 11.4 6.8 6.0 10.8 9.2 10.7 5.1
  29. State Bank of Pakistan Table A6 : City- wise CPI Inflation (YoY) April 2019 City High inflation cities General Food Non-food City Low inflation cities General Food Non-food D. I. Khan 12.9 12.6 13.1 Sahiwal 8.7 9.9 8.0 Mardan 12.6 9.0 14.4 Rawalpindi 8.6 8.8 8.4 Wazirabad 11.9 11.9 11.8 Mianwali 8.5 8.9 8.2 Abbottabad 11.5 15.2 9.3 Gujranwala 8.3 10.3 7.0 Quetta 11.3 12.3 10.7 Sargodha 8.1 7.2 8.7 Bahawalnagar 10.9 10.5 11.2 Dadu 7.9 6.3 9.0 Jhelum 10.9 11.9 10.2 Islamabad 7.8 6.8 8.4 Peshawar 10.8 10.9 10.8 Multan 7.7 8.8 6.9 Mingora 10.2 12.4 8.9 Larkana 7.5 10.2 6.0 Hyderabad 9.7 7.6 11.4 Jhang 7.4 6.6 7.9 Attock 9.6 10.6 8.9 Khuzdar 7.2 10.3 5.1 Faisalabad 9.4 11.5 8.0 R. Y. Khan 7.0 8.9 5.9 Mirpukhas 9.3 11.3 7.9 D. M. Jamali 7.0 6.7 7.2 Muzaffargarh 9.2 9.3 9.1 Karachi 7.0 7.9 6.3 Bannu 8.9 8.4 9.2 Lahore 6.8 8.2 5.8 Turbat 8.9 3.3 11.6 Sialkot 6.7 6.8 6.7 Sukkur 6.5 6.0 6.8 D. G. Khan 6.0 7.1 5.3 Loralai 5.4 7.0 4.5 Bahawalpur 5.3 5.6 5.2 Vehari 5.2 6.4 4.5 Nawabshah 4.3 2.9 5.1 Gawadar 4.0 -1.3 7.3 Mithi 2.4 3.3 1.8 Note: High inflation refers to equal or above average inflation, and low inflation refers to below average 25
  30. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 Table A7: Income Group-wise Inflation ( percent) MoM Apr-18 Up to Rs. 8000 General Mar-19 YoY Apr-19 Apr-18 Mar-19 Apr-19 1.6 1.8 1.1 1.9 8.2 7.6 Food 1.2 3.0 1.4 -1.4 8.5 8.7 Non-food 2.2 0.4 0.8 5.9 7.8 6.3 General 1.7 1.7 1.1 2.3 8.1 7.5 Food 1.3 3.0 1.5 -1.0 8.4 8.6 Non-food 2.1 0.4 0.8 5.8 7.8 6.5 General 1.8 1.6 1.2 2.6 8.1 7.5 Food 1.4 3.0 1.6 -0.9 8.5 8.7 Non-food 2.1 0.4 0.9 5.9 7.8 6.5 General 1.8 1.5 1.2 3.0 9.7 9.1 Food 1.5 3.0 1.6 -0.6 8.5 8.7 Non-food 2.1 0.4 0.9 6.0 10.6 9.4 General 1.9 1.2 1.3 4.7 10.6 9.9 Food 1.6 2.8 1.8 0.8 8.2 8.5 Non-food 2.0 0.5 1.0 6.7 11.7 10.6 General 1.8 1.4 1.3 3.7 9.4 8.8 Food 1.5 2.9 1.7 -0.2 8.4 8.6 Non-food 2.1 0.5 1.0 6.4 10.1 9.0 Rs. 8001- 12000 Rs. 12001- 18000 Rs. 18001- 35000 Above Rs. 35000 All income groups 26
  31. State Bank of Pakistan Table A8 : SPI Item-wise Price Movements Items Sr.No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Wheat Wheat Flour Bag Rice Basmati Broken Rice Irri-6/9 Bread Plain Med.Size (340-400 Gm.) Beef Mutton Chicken Live (Farm) Milk Fresh Curd Milk Powdered Nido Egg Hen (Farm) Mustard Oil Cooking Oil (Tin) Veg. Ghee (Tin) Veg.Ghee Loose Bananas Masoor Pulse Washed Moong Pulse Washed Mash Pulse Washed Gram Pulse Washed Potatoes Onions Tomatoes Sugar Gur Salt Powdered Loose (Lahori) Red Chillies Powder Loose Garlic Tea (Yellow Lable 200 Gm.) Cooked Beef Plate Cooked Dal Plate Tea Prepared (Sada) Cigarettes K-2 (20'S) Long Cloth (Coarse Latha) Shirting Lawn Georgette (Voil Printed) Sandal Gents Bata Chappal Spng.Bata (Gents) Sandal Ladies Bata Electric Charges 1-50 Gas Charges Upto 3.3719 Kerosene Firewood Energy Savor 14 Watt Washing Soap (200-250 Gm.) Match Box Petrol Diesel L.P.G.( 11 Kg Cylender.) Tele. Local Call Bath Soap Lifebouy (Standard) Maximum Median Minimum Unit 10Kg. 10Kg. Kg. Kg. Each Kg. Kg. Kg. Litr Kg. 500G Doz. Kg. 2.5Ltr 2.5Kg. Kg. Doz. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. Kg. 200Gm. Each Each Cup 20'S Mtr. Mtr. Mtr. Mtr. Pair Pair Pair Unit Mmbtu Litr 40Kg Each Cake Each Litr Litr Each Call Cake Prices Apr-19 346.4 388.6 78.8 58.4 43.8 404.4 832.3 192.1 88.6 104.0 409.8 85.6 193.6 521.4 499.0 160.4 94.0 123.0 144.9 152.6 125.0 22.2 47.6 68.7 65.6 93.5 12.4 350.1 193.3 219.5 119.6 64.1 23.7 59.7 284.4 185.2 332.7 138.5 699.0 199.0 599.0 2.0 145.1 125.4 645.7 171.8 31.4 2.5 99.9 118.4 1297.2 4.7 40.5 Percentage change YoY MoM 4.0 3.2 5.8 11.5 2.9 12.8 9.4 9.1 5.7 2.9 6.6 -5.1 5.5 9.8 6.3 9.0 11.8 8.6 25.8 3.1 8.9 -4.9 57.8 106.5 24.2 23.5 9.5 29.6 33.4 12.5 9.2 5.0 10.8 16.8 29.5 5.7 23.7 6.0 0.0 2.6 4.2 0.0 12.7 8.9 3.1 0.7 13.2 9.3 14.8 21.6 10.2 18.0 3.3 106.5 -2.1 -1.5 0.7 1.2 0.1 0.6 1.4 7.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 -15.3 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.6 9.7 1.0 4.7 0.3 -0.1 5.0 29.0 -31.4 7.3 2.8 0.3 0.4 7.2 0.0 1.2 0.8 2.7 0.0 7.9 1.9 6.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -0.2 0.2 1.1 0.0 6.3 5.3 -5.6 0.0 0.0 29.0 9.1 0.8 -5.1 -31.4 27
  32. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 Table A9: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - WPI Items: April 2019 Metal Product Machinery & Equipment Other Transportable Goods Food Products, Beverages and Tobacco, except Metal Products, Textiles, Apparel and Leather Products Machinery and Equipments Ores & Minerals, Agriculture Forestry Electricity Gas & & Fishery Products Water Groups 28 Decrease or no change Eggs, Hides And Fur Skins,Raw, Edible Roots/Potatos, Fish Live Fresh Or Chilled. Subdued increase (Greater than 0% but less than 5%) Moderate increase (5% but less than 10%) Pulses, Wheat, Fuel Wood In Logs, Milk From Bovine Animals, Other Oil Seeds, Dry Fruits. Raw Animal Material/Wool, Poultry, Cotton Seeds, Unmanufactured Tobacco. Electrical Energy, Coal Not Aggiomerated. Salt & Pure Sodium Chloride. Nylon Yarn, Chocolate. Bed Sheets, Blankets, Quilts, Other Fabrics, Fruit Juices, Silk And Reyon Fabrics, Wheat Flour, Beverages, Synthetic Carpets, Footwears, Vegetables & Fruit Juices, Mineral Water, Woolen Carpets, Sugar Confectionary. Coke. Other Glass Articles, Bed Foams, Timber, Plastic Products, Printing Paper, Pesticides, Bricks Blocks And Tiles, Matches. Engines And Motors, Vacuum Pumps, Pig Iron, Concrate Mixer, Cultivators, Chuff Cutter. Bicycles, Electrical Wires, Lighting Equipments. Double digit increase (10% or more) Sorghum/Jowar, Vegetables, Sugar Crops, Millet/Bajra, Stimulant And Spice Crops, Maize, Rice, Fresh Fruits, Fibre Crops. Natural Gas Liquified. Oil Cakes, Dairy Products N.E.C, Milk And Cream In Solid Form, Vegetable Ghee, Other Food Products, Ice Cream, Other Cereal Flour, Leather With Out Hairs, Processed Liquid Milk, Blended Yarn, Woven Fabrics, Vegetable Oil Refined, Coffee And Tea. Medicines, Ceramics And Sanitery, Insecticised, Dying Materials, Soaps & Detergent, Cement. Other Leather N.E.C, Sugar Refined, Spices, Cotton Yarn, Tobbaco Products, Dried Fruits & Nuts, Ready Made Garments, Towels, Meat Of Animals, Hosiery Products. Air Conditioners, Radio And Television, Steel Products. Lathe Machines, Motor Cycles, Pipe Fittings, Refrige,Wash& Sew Mach,Iron,Fan, Steel Bars & Sheets, Tractors, Motor Vehicales. Furnace Oil, Paints & Varnishes, Diesel Oil, Fertilizers, Kerosine Oil, Chemicals, Auto Tyres, Motor Sprit, Hard Board, Glass Sheets, Mobil Oil.
  33. State Bank of Pakistan Table A10 : Consumer Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Items and specification General Food & Non-Alcohalic Beverages. Wheat 1 Wheat Flour 2 Wheat Product 3 Besan 4 Rice 5 Cereals 6 Bakery & Confectionary 7 Nimco 8 Meat 9 Chicken 10 Fish 11 Milk Fresh 12 Milk Product 13 Milk Powder 14 Eggs 15 Mustard Oil 16 Cooking Oil 17 Vegetable Ghee 18 Dry Fruits 19 Fresh Fruits 20 Pulse Masoor 21 Pulse Moong 22 Pulse Mash (Washed) 23 Pulse Gram 24 Gram Whole 25 Beans 26 Potatoes 27 Onion 28 Tomatoes 29 Fresh Vegetables 30 Sugar 31 Gur 32 Honey 33 Sweet Meet 34 Beverages 35 Jam, Tomato Ketchup & Pickle 36 Condiments 37 Spices 38 Tea 39 Alcohalic Beverages, Tobacco Cigarettes 40 Betel Leaves & Nuts 41 Clothing & Footwear Cotton Cloth 42 Woolen Cloth 43 Ready Made Garments 44 Woolen Readymade Garments 45 Hosiery 46 Dopatta 47 Cleaning & Laundering 48 Weights 100.00 34.83 0.35 4.16 0.10 0.15 1.58 0.16 1.16 0.46 2.43 1.36 0.30 6.68 0.63 0.11 0.46 0.10 1.75 2.07 0.25 1.86 0.27 0.23 0.21 0.24 0.16 0.03 0.45 0.51 0.42 1.75 1.04 0.02 0.04 0.25 1.20 0.25 0.27 0.54 0.84 1.41 1.39 0.02 7.57 1.73 0.88 0.97 0.40 0.51 0.44 0.21 Apr-18 Index Mar-19 Apr-19 224.25 231.90 198.93 210.07 213.09 263.89 193.68 261.81 225.07 258.88 298.76 216.82 227.59 281.77 274.91 241.94 188.00 164.66 140.48 144.61 284.15 281.64 158.21 218.42 214.66 259.25 277.17 244.53 148.56 182.43 105.70 233.55 190.58 240.34 341.92 267.41 230.60 228.80 283.14 243.77 300.65 317.70 307.42 941.86 252.06 243.75 268.30 262.52 266.50 264.90 261.67 290.46 240.98 247.17 212.59 217.34 217.61 275.20 202.28 270.70 234.33 264.08 332.66 205.30 242.29 291.26 284.62 258.38 214.46 167.29 148.45 154.11 312.73 262.61 166.04 268.48 220.80 284.87 266.42 269.96 135.14 236.56 404.71 259.66 218.09 279.41 392.98 278.37 234.23 239.87 299.19 282.09 319.96 355.50 351.79 580.96 263.54 259.30 278.73 270.90 289.31 277.45 273.38 303.52 244.03 251.63 208.40 215.66 215.88 273.96 203.89 271.41 234.69 264.08 336.48 225.63 246.88 293.07 286.28 259.07 171.82 169.31 151.17 156.14 311.07 326.18 166.91 275.65 219.98 282.30 263.21 268.50 143.36 248.09 237.08 288.05 232.83 287.70 399.03 279.53 235.98 241.85 299.50 286.08 320.98 356.08 352.20 591.41 265.36 263.74 280.61 272.89 289.31 279.59 275.65 305.07 29
  34. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 Table A10: Consumer Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Items and specification Tailoring 49 Footware 50 Housing,Water,Elect,Gas & Other Fuel 51 House Rent 52 Construction Input Item 53 Construction Wage Rate 54 Water Supply 55 Electricity 56 Gas 57 Kerosene Oil 58 Fire Wood Whole Furnished H.Hold Equip.& Maint. Etc 59 Furniture 60 Household Textile 61 Household Equipment 62 Utensils 63 Plastic Products 64 Washing Soap & Detergent 65 Sewing Needle & Dry Cell 66 Household Servant 67 Marriage Hall Charges Health 68 Drug Medicine 69 Medical Equipment 70 Doctor (MBBS) Clinic Fee 71 Medical Test Transport 72 Motor Vehicle 73 Motor Vehicle Accessories 74 Motor Fuel 75 Mechanical Service 76 Motor Vehicle Tax 77 Transport Services Communication 78 Postal Services 79 Communication & Apparatus Recreation & Culture 80 Recreation & Culture 81 Text Books 82 News Papers 83 Stationery Education 84 Education Restaurants And Hotels 85 Ready Made Food Miscellaneous Goods And Services 86 Personal Care 87 Cosmetics 88 Blades 89 Personal Equipments 30 Weights 0.88 1.55 29.41 21.81 0.56 0.33 0.50 4.40 1.58 0.01 0.23 4.21 0.33 0.65 0.59 0.32 0.25 0.79 0.15 1.04 0.08 2.19 1.27 0.01 0.59 0.32 7.20 0.66 0.24 3.03 0.46 0.11 2.70 3.22 0.07 3.15 2.02 0.86 0.57 0.19 0.40 3.94 3.94 1.23 1.23 2.76 1.49 0.39 0.03 0.84 Apr-18 Index Mar-19 Apr-19 343.91 177.36 207.35 201.96 269.11 262.93 177.11 238.10 158.08 260.44 301.32 239.29 235.27 242.24 188.50 248.73 224.20 238.88 217.51 270.32 260.28 223.08 188.62 259.89 301.80 213.34 187.48 187.45 216.78 165.17 241.91 210.18 199.74 133.67 272.18 130.77 207.96 134.05 303.91 202.94 233.34 281.57 281.57 291.05 291.05 263.59 237.36 222.28 203.39 331.15 359.07 181.18 226.12 212.02 295.39 281.40 195.29 258.28 292.94 278.25 307.17 257.00 252.79 253.05 198.67 273.60 245.73 261.30 231.04 290.60 277.33 239.12 204.15 277.26 321.75 224.24 211.31 206.44 238.24 189.40 256.98 210.18 226.96 143.65 272.63 140.94 219.77 137.69 316.96 235.21 251.19 292.02 292.02 306.48 306.48 282.45 250.69 236.95 221.15 361.77 359.16 181.19 228.21 214.78 296.83 282.22 195.29 258.28 292.94 284.86 307.99 259.19 255.11 253.98 202.00 275.24 248.20 263.63 232.24 292.98 279.97 241.75 206.92 281.94 324.35 226.33 214.66 207.61 239.38 197.39 256.98 215.18 226.34 143.65 272.63 140.94 222.37 138.16 321.86 242.78 252.72 297.27 297.27 308.62 308.62 284.46 251.10 237.40 221.15 367.39
  35. State Bank of Pakistan Table A11 : Wholesale Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Index Apr-18 Mar-19 Items and Specifications General Agriculture Forestry & Fishery 1 Wheat 2 Maize 3 Rice 4 Sorghum/Jowar 5 Millet/Bajra 6 Vegetables 7 Fresh Fruits 8 Dry Fruits 9 Cotton Seeds 10 Other Oil Seeds 11 Edible Roots/ Potatoes 12 Stimulant And Spice Crops 13 Pulses 14 Sugar Crops 15 Fibre Crops 16 Unmanufactured Tobacco 17 Poultry 18 Milk From Bovine Animals 19 Eggs 20 Raw Animal Material/Wool 21 Hides And Fur Skins, Raw 22 Fuel Wood In Logs 23 Fishes Live Fresh Or Chilled Ores/Minerals, Gas & Elect. 24 Coal Not Agglomerated 25 Natural Gas Liquefied 26 Salt & Pure Sodium Chloride 27 Electrical Energy Food, Beverages, Tobacco, Textiles 28 Meat Of Animals 29 Vegetables & Fruit Juices 30 Dried Fruits & Nuts 31 Fruit Juices 32 Vegetable Oil Refined 33 Vegetable Ghee 34 Oil Cakes 35 Processed Liquid Milk 36 Milk And Cream In Solid Form 37 Ice Cream 38 Dairy Products N.E.C 39 Wheat Flour 40 Other Cereal Flour 41 Sugar Refined 42 Chocolate 43 Sugar Confectionary 44 Coffee And Tea 45 Spices 46 Other Food Products 47 Mineral Water 48 Beverages 49 Tobacco Products 50 Cotton Yarn 51 Nylon Yarn 52 Blended Yarn 53 Woven Fabrics 54 Cotton Fabrics 55 Other Fabrics 228.07 260.48 203.30 210.71 174.07 261.38 197.62 237.20 308.39 275.26 255.66 182.04 133.10 279.19 239.71 257.62 242.34 308.03 230.37 280.72 188.73 176.13 98.66 283.56 476.70 242.84 155.29 210.84 266.38 288.00 233.13 317.46 226.66 290.88 184.96 157.40 128.77 227.97 288.23 223.34 266.02 273.79 190.87 213.24 196.05 100.00 127.55 272.46 202.24 294.50 211.50 173.00 318.37 229.04 143.99 192.56 321.49 214.23 227.16 253.67 278.88 215.39 240.50 200.73 414.71 253.66 272.54 299.74 283.90 265.42 187.30 115.94 325.84 249.11 349.69 278.10 324.89 219.94 288.02 215.43 190.56 92.98 295.14 463.18 291.02 155.29 315.75 275.23 283.90 258.24 353.19 228.62 331.44 189.38 164.09 136.92 247.94 299.78 240.19 287.85 293.13 198.19 229.53 233.17 100.00 128.15 288.37 240.67 316.48 212.04 176.55 393.80 264.15 143.99 204.96 344.94 225.33 235.32 Apr-19 259.57 287.68 211.18 246.66 203.63 447.93 260.31 356.37 355.25 282.36 272.29 187.39 126.99 340.75 249.67 349.69 278.87 325.04 246.03 290.78 163.90 190.05 92.86 293.83 465.14 290.77 155.29 315.07 290.99 283.90 265.89 353.98 231.57 333.48 192.06 168.32 139.82 250.04 311.00 242.85 287.85 298.79 196.69 230.69 248.79 100.00 128.15 289.70 251.98 319.77 216.02 178.18 393.80 283.63 143.99 207.37 344.94 226.25 235.88 31
  36. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 Table A11: Wholesale Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Index Apr-18 Mar-19 Items and Specifications 56 Silk And Rayon Fabrics 57 Towels 58 Blankets 59 Bed Sheets 60 Quilts 61 Woolen Carpets 62 Synthetic Carpets 63 Hosiery Products 64 Ready Made Garments 65 Leather With Out Hairs 66 Other Leather N.E.C 67 Footwear’s Other Transportable Goods 68 Timber 69 Printing Paper 70 Hard Board 71 Coke 72 Motor Sprit 73 Diesel Oil 74 Kerosene Oil 75 Furnace Oil 76 Mobil Oil 77 Chemicals 78 Dying Materials 79 Fertilizers 80 Pesticides 81 Insecticides 82 Paints & Varnishes 83 Medicines 84 Soaps & Detergent 85 Auto Tyres 86 Plastic Products 87 Glass Sheets 88 Other Glass Articles 89 Ceramics And Sanitary 90 Bricks Blocks And Tiles 91 Cement 92 Bed Foams 93 Matches Metal Product Machinery & Equip 94 Pig Iron 95 Steel Bars & Sheets 96 Pipe Fittings 97 Steel Products 98 Engines And Motors 99 Vacuum Pumps 100 Air Conditioners 101 Cultivators 102 Chuff Cutter 103 Tractors 104 Lathe Machines 105 Concrete Mixer 106 Refrige,Wash& Sew Mach, Iron,Fan 107 Electrical Wires 108 Lighting Equipments 109 Radio And Television 110 Motor Vehicles 111 Motor Cycles 112 Bicycles 32 188.14 276.14 265.03 256.87 222.32 196.43 130.95 248.01 201.16 212.68 207.02 164.15 193.68 237.00 170.48 260.42 163.45 145.27 203.45 203.79 131.92 201.08 191.56 146.55 226.05 310.16 141.00 301.12 177.04 190.72 177.11 239.27 302.27 318.10 236.41 223.30 223.43 175.33 171.36 182.01 128.97 158.63 215.66 176.76 116.98 123.69 200.10 190.66 153.46 201.75 241.06 138.83 222.10 208.22 174.04 140.42 211.00 133.32 187.65 194.81 308.50 277.52 269.00 229.26 196.43 131.80 266.64 221.50 229.55 568.19 168.09 222.43 244.62 174.76 291.67 163.45 156.91 238.13 230.47 183.68 213.34 222.25 155.94 266.94 316.64 148.01 364.40 185.56 201.14 204.20 246.23 337.30 331.31 249.92 227.28 237.32 181.83 172.57 191.40 128.97 171.55 238.51 189.19 116.98 123.69 211.33 190.66 153.46 226.93 299.21 138.83 243.04 208.22 174.13 140.42 229.70 159.20 194.31 Apr-19 194.81 308.50 277.52 269.00 232.74 199.40 134.75 273.87 228.07 229.55 658.87 168.09 227.00 244.62 174.76 291.67 163.45 167.06 249.21 238.48 185.83 221.27 221.50 155.94 268.91 316.64 150.13 369.27 194.23 202.19 204.36 246.72 337.30 331.31 252.16 226.38 235.80 181.83 172.57 194.35 128.97 178.62 251.44 189.42 116.98 123.69 218.02 190.66 153.46 226.93 299.21 138.83 251.74 212.00 175.37 150.87 235.59 160.54 194.31
  37. State Bank of Pakistan Table A12 : Price Indices - Base 2007-08 = 100 Period Overall 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 CPI Food Non-food Overall WPI Food SPI * Non-Food 117.03 128.85 146.45 162.57 174.53 189.58 198.16 203.82 212.29 220.62 123.11 139.05 164.10 182.20 195.18 212.74 220.20 224.78 226.59 232.95 113.37 122.73 135.87 150.80 162.16 175.69 184.95 191.25 233.37 237.59 118.93 135.40 164.17 181.28 194.61 210.48 209.85 207.64 216.02 223.52 119.68 136.85 159.26 181.32 197.21 213.04 226.22 234.69 248.74 253.34 118.45 134.48 167.27 181.26 192.95 208.85 199.47 190.47 195.27 204.61 123.26 139.84 164.02 178.67 189.64 208.66 212.61 216.23 220.10 223.60 2017 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 210.94 211.54 213.32 216.30 216.33 215.45 216.19 216.61 217.98 219.61 220.42 220.20 228.45 229.19 233.47 237.50 237.01 234.37 234.47 235.38 238.43 239.89 240.79 239.43 200.44 200.96 201.24 203.59 203.94 204.11 205.23 205.36 205.72 207.45 208.21 208.67 214.84 215.86 217.29 219.22 218.78 217.77 217.24 217.96 218.08 219.41 220.20 221.00 244.73 244.91 247.53 252.45 251.10 248.90 249.95 251.05 252.27 254.40 252.83 253.31 195.87 197.42 198.10 198.13 198.26 198.02 196.63 196.96 196.39 197.22 199.49 200.49 218.35 219.25 223.62 222.07 220.51 220.68 219.28 219.82 223.38 225.15 226.29 225.66 2018 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 220.27 219.58 220.25 224.25 225.40 226.68 228.80 229.27 229.14 234.49 234.75 233.78 236.92 234.31 233.67 237.08 239.36 241.37 242.74 243.25 241.65 246.27 245.08 241.70 210.29 210.75 212.21 216.56 217.03 217.87 220.45 220.89 221.64 227.43 228.56 229.03 224.99 224.66 225.22 228.07 230.98 234.40 240.04 241.93 238.25 248.19 249.92 247.72 252.74 250.56 251.00 254.52 257.57 259.86 263.23 262.42 260.81 266.83 264.02 261.58 207.38 208.23 208.52 211.28 214.11 218.25 225.32 228.93 223.95 236.36 240.97 238.93 224.13 222.19 221.67 223.13 224.51 228.00 229.18 228.72 228.27 235.22 238.35 238.12 2019 Jan 236.11 242.53 232.26 247.21 263.50 236.87 239.07 Feb 237.61 246.03 232.56 249.44 265.38 239.32 244.35 Mar Apr 240.98 240.98 253.20 253.20 233.66 233.66 253.67 253.67 272.71 272.71 241.59 241.59 248.19 248.19 *: all groups combined 33
  38. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 Table A13: International Commodity Prices/Indices Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 56.6 61.1 63.8 68.6 73.8 77.4 80.0 84.3 Rice ($/MT) 410.0 408.0 406.0 413.0 Wheat ($/MT) 209.8 219.0 205.8 199.5 Sugar (US cent/ pound)^ 0.28 0.29 0.28 0.28 Palm Oil ($/MT) 584.6 603.0 573.0 588.5 Soybean Oil ($/MT) 747.8 772.8 750.3 733.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 Energy Crude Oil (US$ per barrel) * Energy Index (2010 = 100) Food Non-Food Non-Energy Cotton Outlook 'A' Index #^ 81.3 84.7 86.2 85.6 Copper ($/MT) 5,939.1 6,300.5 6,439.5 6,438.4 Aluminum ($/MT) 1,853.7 1,863.0 1,871.2 1,845.4 Metal Price Index (2010 = 100) 76.2 88.2 86.5 93.7 Tin ($/MT) 20,457.8 21,264.0 21,393.4 20,604.3 Nickel ($/MT) 11,523.1 12,685.2 13,026.3 12,772.8 Zinc ($/MT) 2,569.7 2,707.2 2,850.6 2,932.7 Lead ($/MT) 1,997.1 2,062.8 2,046.5 1,939.0 Iron Ore ($ cents/dry MT) Uranium ($/MT)@ 28.9 28.0 25.3 25.2 DAP ($/MT) 382.1 357.4 335.0 323.8 Urea ($/MT) 260.0 250.6 247.5 247.5 Source: World Bank for all variables / indices except Uranium which is taken from Cameco (World Largest Uranium Producer) @ Data has been taken from Cameco website as it is not available in World Bank dataset. ^ The measurement unit for sugar and Cotton is US cent/ pound in IMF data source, whereas it is US dollar / kg in World bank dataset. The result of two datasets can be reconciled using conversion formula: 1US $ / kilogram = 45.359237 U.S. cents /=pound $/MT US$ per metric tonne. * Crude Oil (Petroleum), simple average of three spot prices; Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and the Dubai fateh # Middling 1-3/32 inch staple, liverpool Index "A", average of the cheapest Cts/lb five of fourteen styles, CIF Liverpool (Cotton Outlook, Liverpool). From January 1968 to May 1981 strict middling 1-1/16 inch staple. Prior to 1968, Mexican 11/16.2/ DAP: Diammonium Phosphate 34
  39. State Bank of Pakistan Table 14 : CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted Original Series Period FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Jul 198.05 201.76 210.08 216.19 228.80 Aug 198.70 202.25 209.46 216.61 229.27 Sep 199.40 202.04 209.88 217.98 229.14 Oct 199.81 203.03 211.57 219.61 234.49 Nov 198.79 204.22 212.01 220.42 234.75 Dec 196.79 203.06 210.57 220.20 233.78 Jan 196.95 203.49 210.94 220.27 236.11 Feb 195.13 202.98 211.54 219.58 237.61 Mar 195.57 203.28 213.32 220.25 240.98 Apr 198.16 206.43 216.30 224.25 244.03 May 199.66 205.99 216.33 225.40 Jun 200.89 207.30 215.45 226.68 Seasonally Adjusted Series Jul 197.02 200.70 208.96 215.05 227.63 Aug 197.44 201.07 208.28 215.47 228.16 Sep 198.32 201.07 208.97 217.14 228.37 Oct 198.34 201.58 210.12 218.15 232.99 Nov 197.74 203.20 210.97 219.36 233.69 Dec 197.81 204.06 211.56 221.21 234.84 Jan 197.72 204.36 211.92 221.38 237.32 Feb 197.13 205.02 213.63 221.71 239.83 Mar 197.23 205.01 215.13 222.09 242.23 243.37 Apr 197.85 206.05 215.83 223.69 May 199.85 206.10 216.37 225.35 Jun 201.24 207.55 215.62 226.74 35
  40. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 Table 15: CPI Food Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted Original Series Period FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Jul 222.80 224.14 234.69 234.47 242.74 Aug 224.05 224.86 232.48 235.38 243.25 Sep 224.12 223.87 232.80 238.43 241.65 Oct 223.74 224.86 234.68 239.89 246.27 Nov 222.74 227.55 235.17 240.79 245.08 Dec 218.08 223.90 230.69 239.43 241.70 Jan 217.10 222.58 228.45 236.92 242.53 Feb 213.15 221.07 229.19 234.31 246.03 Mar 214.25 222.25 233.47 233.67 253.20 Apr 217.26 227.53 237.50 237.08 257.44 May 221.22 225.84 237.01 239.36 Jun 223.84 228.95 234.37 241.37 Seasonally Adjusted Series 36 Jul 220.92 222.19 232.62 232.42 240.66 Aug 221.08 222.04 229.67 232.67 240.61 Sep 221.30 221.28 230.33 236.10 239.45 Oct 220.42 221.62 231.46 236.69 243.01 Nov 219.72 224.64 232.24 237.82 242.10 Dec 219.66 225.39 232.09 240.82 243.12 Jan 219.30 225.08 231.28 240.11 246.01 Feb 217.87 225.87 234.09 239.25 251.13 Mar 217.44 225.53 236.87 237.03 254.82 257.21 Apr 217.53 227.69 237.52 236.99 May 222.06 226.52 237.57 239.74 Jun 224.53 229.39 234.57 241.31
  41. State Bank of Pakistan Table 16 : CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Period FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Jul 100.52 100.53 100.54 100.53 100.51 Average 100.53 Aug 100.64 100.59 100.57 100.53 100.49 100.56 Sep 100.54 100.48 100.43 100.39 100.34 100.44 Oct 100.74 100.72 100.69 100.67 100.64 100.69 Nov 100.53 100.50 100.49 100.48 100.46 100.49 Dec 99.49 99.51 99.53 99.54 99.55 99.52 Jan 99.61 99.57 99.54 99.50 99.49 99.54 Feb 98.99 99.00 99.02 99.04 99.08 99.02 Mar 99.16 99.16 99.16 99.17 99.48 99.23 100.27 100.22 Apr 100.16 100.19 100.22 100.25 May 99.90 99.95 99.98 100.02 99.96 Jun 99.83 99.88 99.92 99.97 99.90 Table 17: CPI Food Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Period FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Jul 100.85 100.88 100.89 100.88 100.87 Average 100.87 Aug 101.34 101.27 101.22 101.17 101.10 101.22 Sep 101.27 101.17 101.07 100.99 100.92 101.08 Oct 101.51 101.46 101.39 101.35 101.34 101.41 Nov 101.38 101.29 101.26 101.25 101.23 101.28 Dec 99.28 99.34 99.40 99.42 99.42 99.37 Jan 99.00 98.89 98.78 98.67 98.59 98.78 Feb 97.83 97.88 97.91 97.94 97.97 97.90 Mar 98.53 98.55 98.57 98.58 98.60 98.56 Apr 99.88 99.93 99.99 100.04 100.09 99.98 May 99.62 99.70 99.77 99.84 99.73 Jun 99.69 99.81 99.91 100.02 99.86 37
  42. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 Table 18: CPI Month-on-Month % Change Original & Seasonally Adjusted Original Series Period FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Jul 1.70 0.43 1.34 0.34 0.94 Aug 0.33 0.24 -0.30 0.19 0.21 Sep 0.35 -0.10 0.20 0.63 -0.06 Oct 0.21 0.49 0.81 0.75 2.33 Nov -0.51 0.59 0.21 0.37 0.11 Dec -1.01 -0.57 -0.68 -0.10 -0.41 Jan 0.08 0.21 0.18 0.03 1.00 Feb -0.92 -0.25 0.28 -0.31 0.64 Mar 0.23 0.15 0.84 0.31 1.42 Apr 1.32 1.55 1.40 1.82 1.27 May 0.76 -0.21 0.01 0.51 Jun 0.62 0.64 -0.41 0.57 Jul 0.93 -0.27 0.68 -0.26 0.39 Aug 0.21 0.18 -0.32 0.20 0.23 Sep 0.44 0.00 0.33 0.77 0.09 Oct 0.01 0.26 0.55 0.46 2.02 Nov -0.30 0.80 0.41 0.56 0.30 Dec 0.03 0.43 0.28 0.84 0.50 Jan -0.04 0.15 0.17 0.08 1.05 Seasonally Adjusted Series 38 Feb -0.30 0.32 0.81 0.15 1.06 Mar 0.05 -0.01 0.70 0.17 1.00 0.47 Apr 0.31 0.51 0.32 0.72 May 1.01 0.03 0.25 0.74 Jun 0.69 0.71 -0.35 0.62
  43. State Bank of Pakistan Table 19 : CPI Food Month-on-Month % Change Original & Seasonally Adjusted Series Original Series Period FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Jul 2.68 Aug 0.56 0.13 2.50 0.04 0.57 0.32 -0.94 0.39 0.21 Sep Oct 0.03 -0.44 0.14 1.29 -0.66 -0.17 0.44 0.81 0.61 1.91 Nov -0.45 1.20 0.21 0.37 -0.48 Dec -2.09 -1.61 -1.90 -0.56 -1.38 Jan -0.45 -0.59 -0.97 -1.05 0.34 Feb -1.82 -0.68 0.32 -1.11 1.44 Mar 0.52 0.54 1.87 -0.27 2.91 Apr 1.41 2.38 1.73 1.46 1.67 May 1.82 -0.74 -0.21 0.96 Jun 1.18 1.38 -1.11 0.84 Jul 1.34 -1.04 1.41 -0.92 -0.27 Aug 0.07 -0.07 -1.27 0.11 -0.02 Sep 0.10 -0.34 0.29 1.48 -0.49 Oct -0.40 0.15 0.49 0.25 1.49 Nov -0.32 1.37 0.34 0.48 -0.37 Dec -0.03 0.33 -0.06 1.26 0.42 Jan -0.16 -0.14 -0.35 -0.30 1.19 Seasonally Adjusted Series Feb -0.65 0.35 1.21 -0.36 2.08 Mar -0.20 -0.15 1.19 -0.93 1.47 0.94 Apr 0.04 0.96 0.28 -0.02 May 2.08 -0.51 0.02 1.16 Jun 1.11 1.27 -1.26 0.66 39
  44. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 Figure A1: CPI Non-food Inflation (percent) YoY 12mma MoM (RHS) Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elec, Gas and Other Fuels 20 10 15 20 10 15 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 10 20 -10 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc Health 20 15 10 15 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 10 20 -10 Transport Communication 20 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -10 Recreation & Culture 20 10 15 -15 -10 Education 20 10 15 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 Apr-19 Feb-19 Oct-18 Dec-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Apr-18 Feb-18 Oct-17 Dec-17 -10 Jun-17 -15 Aug-17 Apr-19 Feb-19 Oct-18 Dec-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Apr-18 Feb-18 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 -10 Apr-17 -15 Apr-17 -10 40 10 15 15
  45. State Bank of Pakistan Figure A2 : Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of CPI Items, April 2019 Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) YoY price changes 100 160 12-month ma price changes 100 140 140 80 120 100 60 80 120 100 60 80 80 40 60 40 60 40 40 20 20 20 0 0 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 160 100 0 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 20 160 12-month ma food price changes 100 12-month ma non-food price changes 140 140 80 120 100 60 80 80 120 100 60 80 40 60 40 20 40 60 40 20 20 20 0 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 Price intervals in percent 0 0 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 160 Price intervals in percent 41
  46. 50 42 12-month ma food price changes Price intervals in percent <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 50 YoY price changes 100 100 40 80 40 80 30 60 30 60 20 40 20 40 10 20 10 20 0 0 0 0 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <-8 -8 to -6 -6 to -4 -4 to -2 -2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 Inflation Monitor, April 2019 Figure A3: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of WPI Commodities, April 2019 Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) 50 12-month ma price changes 100 40 80 40 80 30 60 30 60 20 40 20 40 10 20 10 20 0 0 0 0 50 12-month ma non-food price changes 100 Price intervals in percent
  47. State Bank of Pakistan `Figure A4: Group- wise/ Overall Inflation Diffusion Index (IDI) and respective/ overall YoY Inflation (percent) FNAB-IDI (LHS) Overall-IDI (LHS) FNAB Inflation- YoY Overall Inflation 120 FHE-IDI (LHS) FHE Inflation- YoY 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Group [1.41%] 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 H-IDI (LHS) H Inflation- YoY Clothing & Footwear Group [7.57%] 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Housing, Water, Elect. Gas Group [29.41%] 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Communication Group [3.22%] 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Restaurant & Hotels Group [1.23%] 100 Com-IDI (LHS) Com Inflation- YoY 60 Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 80 Edu-IDI (LHS) Edu Inflation- YoY Transport Group [7.20%] 100 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 100 Education Group [3.94%] 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 T-IDI (LHS) T Inflation- YoY Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 HWEG-IDI (LHS) HWEG Inflation- YoY RC-IDI (LHS) RC Inflation- YoY Health Group [2.19%] 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 100 CF- IDI (LHS) CF Inflation- YoY 120 Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation RH-IDI (LHS) RH Inflation- YoY Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Miscellaneous Group [2.76%] Misc-IDI (LHS) Misc Inflation- YoY Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 ABT-IDI (LHS) ABT Inflation- YoY Recreation & Culture Group [2.02%] Furnishing & Household Equip. Group [4.21%] Overall-IDI (LHS) Overall Inflation 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Group [34.83%] Numbers in square brackets show the weights of respective groups in the CPI baskets. 43
  48. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 Annexure B Technical Notes 1. All the three measures of inflation, viz. CPI, WPI and SPI are computed by the following Laspeyres Index formula:  Pj  I t   w0j  t j  j  P0  Where It is price index, w0j is weight of commodity j in the overall basket, Pt j is price of commodity j in period t and P0 j is its price in the base year. 2. Base year for all the indices is the year 2007-08. 3. CPI basket contains 487 consumers’ goods; WPI basket contains 463 items; SPI contains 53 items. 4. YoY inflation is the percent change of an index in a given month over the index in the same month of the last year. It is computed as follows: t  ( It I t 12  1)  100 5. Period average inflation is the percent change of the average index during the period from July to the given month of a fiscal year over the average index during the corresponding period of the last year. It is computed as follows:  t     I t i  i  0  t   t 12   1  100     I t 12 i   i 0  Where v is the serial number of the month of July of current fiscal year in a given time series. 6. Monthly inflation is the percent change of an index in a given month over the index in the preceding month. It is computed as follows: 44
  49. State Bank of Pakistan t  ( It  1)  100 I t 1 7. 12-month moving average inflation (Long-run trend inflation) is the percent change of 12-month moving average of a price index; it is computed as follows:  11    I t i  i 0  ~  t  11  1  100     I t 12 i   i 0  8. Core Inflation is defined as the persistent component of measured inflation that excludes volatile and controlled prices. It reflects the normal supply and demand conditions in the economy. Core inflation is computed by the following three methods: a) Non-food, Non-energy inflation (NFNE inflation); it is computed by excluding food group and energy items (kerosene oil, petrol, diesel, CNG, electricity and natural gas) from the CPI basket. b) 20% trimmed-mean inflation; it is computed through the following steps: i. All CPI items are arranged in ascending order according to YoY/12-month moving average/monthly/period average changes in their price indices in a given month. ii. 20 percent of the items showing extreme changes are excluded with 10 percent of the items at the top of the list (corresponding to cumulative weight of 90% or more) and 10 percent of the items at the bottom of the list (corresponding to cumulative weight of 10 percent or less). iii. The weighted mean of the changes in price indices of the rest of the items is core inflation. c) Relatively Stable Component of CPI (RSC-CPI) developed by State Bank of Pakistan is a hybrid method based on permanent exclusion criteria. Volatile price items, to be excluded in the newly proposed measure RSC-CPI, are identified by analyzing the list and frequency of commodities that have been trimmed frequently in the past while computing monthly weighted trimmed mean measure. Commodities 45
  50. Inflation Monitor , April 2019 that were trimmed out 13 and above times since July 2008 to February 2013 are selected for permanently excluding from the CPI basket. This newly developed component includes a mix of both food and non-food commodities that show persistent price behavior. Fifty Commodities included comprise relatively stable component (RSC-CPI) with a weight of 67.69. The detailed methodology of RSC-CPI and group wise items along their weights can be viewed at the following link; http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/wpapers/2013/wp66.pdf 9. Weighted contribution of different items (or sub-groups) to total inflation is worked out as below: Let the overall index (It) is the weighted average of price indexes of individual items or sub-groups (Iit), i.e. I t   wi  I it i The weighted contribution of a single item (or a sub-group) to overall inflation is defined as below:   Cit   it 12  wi   it   t  Where C it : Contribution of ith item to the overall inflation  it 12  I it 12 ; i.e. ratio of item’s index to overall index in the I t 12 reference month wi : Weights of ith item  it : Inflation of ith item  t : Overall inflation 46
  51. State Bank of Pakistan 10 . Annualized rate of inflation (based on a month-on-month rate ) is computed as follows Annualized = ((1+ )12-1) 100 Methodology for Estimating Inflation Diffusion Index for Pakistan We constructed an index to measure the spread of inflation in the 487 commodities of the CPI basket. It is based on month-on-month (MoM) change in the prices of these commodities and can be obtained by estimating what is known as an ‘inflation diffusion index’ (IDI) as below: Thus, it is the difference between the share of items with increasing prices (i.e. depicting inflation) and the share of items with falling prices (i.e. depicting deflation) in CPI amongst the commodities for which prices have altered or remained constant1. Based upon commodity level price data from July 2001 to February 2011 we computed inflation diffusion indices overall (general) CPI basket and for all groups in CPI basket (except House Rent Index being single item). A simple analysis2 suggests that IDI is a leading indicator for Pakistan’s YoY inflation. 1 We do not observe the prices of certain commodities (like the seasonal items) during certain periods of time. To calculate the inflation diffusion index we consider the commodities for which prices have been reported (irrespective of changed or not) during the month under review. 2 Formal test shows one way ‘Granger’ causality from IDI to YoY inflation. 47