Central Bank of Nigeria: Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Survey Report - March 2018

Transcription

1. Central Bank of Nigeria Purchasing Managers ’ Index (PMI) Survey Report Statistics Department March 2018
2. PURCHASING MANAGERS ’ INDEX (PMI) MARCH 2018 REPORT 1.0 Introduction The March 2018 PMI survey was conducted by the Statistics Department of the Central Bank of Nigeria during the period March 12 - 22, 2018. The respondents were purchasing and supply executives of manufacturing and non-manufacturing organizations in 31 locations in Nigeria (Fig. 1). The Bank makes no representation regarding the individual companies, other than the information they have provided. The data contained herein further provides input for policy decisions. Sokoto Katsina Yobe Jigawa Zamfara Borno Kano Kebbi Kaduna Bauchi Gombe Niger Adamawa FCT Kwara Nasarawa Oyo Osun Ogun Lagos Plateau Ekiti Taraba Kogi Benue Ondo Edo Delta Cross Imo Abia River Akwa Ibom Fig. 1: Map of Nigeria with showing the survey locations 1.1 Data and Method of Presentation The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI Report on businesses is based on survey responses, indicating the changes in the level of business activities in the current month compared with the preceding month. For each of the indicators measured, this report shows the diffusion index of the responses. The diffusion index is computed as the percentage of responses with positive change plus half of the percentage of those reporting no change, except for supplier delivery time, which is computed as the percentage of responses with negative change plus half of the percentage of those reporting no change. The composite PMI for the manufacturing sector is computed as the weighted average of five diffusion indices, namely: production level, level of new orders, suppliers’ delivery time, employment level and raw materials inventory/work in progress, with assigned weights of 25%, 30%, 15%, 10% and 20%, respectively. The composite PMI for the 1
3. non-manufacturing sector is computed from four diffusion indices , namely: business activity, level of new orders, employment level and raw materials inventory, with equal weights of 25% each. A composite PMI above 50 points indicates that the manufacturing/non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding, 50 points indicates no change and below 50 points indicates that it is generally contracting. The subsectors reporting growth are listed in the order of highest to lowest growth, while those reporting contraction are listed in the order of the highest to the lowest contraction. 2.0 Manufacturing PMI Report March '18 February '18 Inventories Production level, new orders and inventories growing at a faster rate; supplier delivery time and employment level growing at a slower rate in March 2018 Employment level Supplier deliveries New orders Production level Overall Manufacturing PMI 50 53 56 59 62 Fig. 2: Manufacturing PMI at a glance 2 Mar '18 Feb '18 Jan '18 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Index Points The Manufacturing PMI in the month of March stood at 56.7 index points, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the twelfth consecutive month. (Fig. 3 and Table 1). The index however grew at a faster rate, when compared to the index in the previous month. Of the 14 subsectors surveyed, 11 reported 62.0 growth in the review month in the Overall Manufacturing PMI 50 point following order: electrical 59.0 equipment; cement; petroleum & 56.7 coal products; food, beverage & 56.0 tobacco products; chemical & pharmaceutical products; fabricated 53.0 metal products; paper products; transportation equipment; plastics & 50.0 rubber products; textile, apparel, 47.0 leather and footwear and primary metal. The remaining 3 subsectors 44.0 contracted in the following order: nonmetallic mineral products; furniture & related products and Fig. 3: Trend of Manufacturing PMI printing & related support activities.
4. 2 .1 Production Level 59.1 60.0 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 Mar '18 Feb '18 Jan '18 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 46.0 Fig. 4: Trend of production index New Orders 61.0 50 point 56.1 57.0 Index Points 2.2 New Orders 53.0 49.0 45.0 Mar '18 Feb '18 Jan '18 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 41.0 Mar '17 At 56.1 points, the new orders index grew for the twelfth consecutive month, indicating increase in new orders in March 2018. Six subsectors reported growth, 5 remained unchanged while 3 contracted in the review month (Fig. 5 and Table 3). 50 point 62.0 Index Points At 59.1 points, the production level index for the manufacturing sector grew for the thirteenth consecutive month in March 2018. The index indicated a faster growth in the current month, when compared to its level in the preceding month. Seven of the 14 manufacturing subsectors recorded increase in production level, 3 remained unchanged, while the remaining 4 recorded declines in production level during the review month (Fig. 4 and Table 2). Production Level 64.0 Fig. 5: Trend of new orders index 60.0 2.3 Supplier Delivery Time 50 point 56.6 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 Fig. 6: Trend of supplier delivery time index 3 Mar '18 Feb '18 Jan '18 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 40.0 Mar '17 Index Points The manufacturing supplier delivery time index stood at 56.6 points in March 2018, indicating faster supplier delivery time for the tenth consecutive month. Ten subsectors recorded improved suppliers’ delivery time, 1 remained unchanged while 3 subsectors recorded delayed delivery time (Fig. 6 and Table 4). Supplier Delivery Time 58.0
5. 2 .4 Employment Level Employment Level 50 point 53.3 54.0 52.0 50.0 Index Points 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 Mar '18 Feb '18 Jan '18 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 Apr '17 May '17 40.0 Mar '17 The employment level index in March 2018 stood at 53.3 points, indicating growth in employment level for the tenth consecutive month. Of the 14 subsectors, 7 subsectors increased their employment level, 2 remained unchanged while 5 reduced their employment level in the review month (Fig. 7 and Table 5). 56.0 Fig 7: Trend of manufacturing employment index 2.5 Raw material Inventories 62.0 The Manufacturing sector inventories index grew for the twelfth consecutive month in March 2018. At 59.4 points, the index grew at a faster rate when compared to its level in the previous month. Nine of the 14 subsectors recorded growth, 2 remained unchanged while 3 recorded decline in raw material inventories (Fig. 8 and Table 6). 59.0 Raw Materials Inventory 50 point 59.4 Index Points 56.0 53.0 50.0 47.0 44.0 Feb '18 Mar '18 Jan '18 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 41.0 59.0 60.0 Fig. 8: Trend of raw material inventory index March '18 February '18 Inventories 3.0 Non-Manufacturing PMI Report Business activity and new orders, growing at a faster rate; employment and inventories growing at a slower rate in March 2018 Level of employment Level of new orders Business Activity Overall Non-manufacturing PMI 49.0 50.0 51.0 52.0 53.0 54.0 55.0 Fig. 9: Manufacturing PMI at a glance 4 56.0 57.0 58.0
6. Mar '18 Feb '18 Jan '18 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Index Points The composite PMI for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 57.2 points in March 2018, indicating expansion in the Non-manufacturing PMI for the eleventh consecutive month. Fourteen of the 16 subsectors recorded growth in the 63.0 following order: public Overall Non-manufacturing PMI administration; utilities; finance & 50 point 60.0 57.2 insurance; management of 57.0 companies; agriculture; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning 54.0 supply; professional, scientific, & 51.0 technical services; water supply, 48.0 sewage & waste management; educational services; 45.0 wholesale/retail trade; 42.0 information & communication; real estate rental & leasing; health care & social assistance; Fig. 10: Trend of Non-manufacturing PMI accommodation & food services. The transportation & warehousing; and construction subsectors recorded contraction in the review period (Fig. 10 and Table 7). 68.0 3.1 Business Activity 65.0 At 58.7 points, the business activity index grew for the twelfth consecutive month, indicating expansion in business activity in March 2018. The index grew at a faster rate, when compared to its level in the previous month. Fourteen subsectors recorded growth in business activity, while 2 declined in the review month (Table 8). 62.0 Business Activity 50 point 58.7 56.0 53.0 50.0 47.0 Fig. 11: Trend of business activities index 5 Mar '18 Feb '18 Jan '18 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 44.0 Jan '17 Index Points 59.0
7. New orders 62 .0 50 point 3.2 New Orders 59.0 55.8 Index Points At 55.8 points, new orders index grew in March 2018 for the twelfth consecutive month. Of the 16 subsectors, 10 reported growth, 4 remained unchanged while 2 recorded declines (Table 9). 56.0 53.0 50.0 47.0 Mar '18 Feb '18 Jan '18 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Jan '17 Feb '17 44.0 Fig. 12: Trend of new orders index 60.0 3.3 Employment Level Employment Level 58.0 55.1 56.0 54.0 Index Points The employment level Index for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 55.1 points, indicating growth in employment for the eleventh consecutive month. Twelve subsectors recorded growth in the review month, 3 remained unchanged while 1 recorded declines (Table 10). 50 point 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 Mar '18 Feb '18 Jan '18 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 40.0 Fig. 13: Trend of non-manufacturing employment index 63.0 50 point 59.2 60.0 3.4 Non-manufacturing Inventory 57.0 54.0 51.0 48.0 45.0 Fig. 14: Trend of non-manufacturing inventory index 6 Mar '18 Feb '18 Jan '18 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 42.0 Jan '17 Index Points At 59.2 points, non-manufacturing inventory index grew for the eleventh consecutive month, indicating growth in inventories in the review period. Thirteen subsectors recorded higher inventories, 2 remained unchanged, while 1 subsectors recorded lower inventory in March, 2018 (Table 11). Inventory
8. APPENDICES Table 1 : Manufacturing at a Glance Series Index* February Series Index* March Difference 56.3 57.8 55.6 57.0 53.9 58.1 42.0 55.9 65.4 54.3 37.6 53.3 56.7 59.1 56.1 56.6 53.3 59.4 36.4 52.1 61.1 54.1 42.1 48.7 0.4 1.3 0.5 -0.4 -0.6 1.3 -5.6 -3.8 -4.3 -0.2 4.5 -4.6 Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal 43.8 57.9 55.6 44.5 57.1 55.5 43.8 59.4 58.3 63.0 59.2 69.4 59.8 82.5 56.1 60.3 46.7 46.7 53.8 61.0 52.3 51.3 Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment 39.5 60.2 48.8 47.2 51.3 53.1 Index Composite PMI \1 Production level New orders Supplier delivery time Employment level Raw materials/WIP Inventory New Export Orders Output Prices Input Prices Quantity of Purchases Outstanding Business/Backlog of Work Stock of Finished Goods Rate of Change Trend** (Months) Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Declining Declining Faster Faster Faster Slower Slower Faster Faster Slower Slower Slower Slower From Expansion 12 13 12 10 11 12 37 27 45 2 4 1 25.6 1.9 26.9 11.6 3.2 -8.8 2.9 -5.6 2.7 -10.7 -7.9 Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing From Contraction Faster Faster From Contraction Faster From Expansion Slower Slower Faster Slower Slower 1 2 2 1 18 1 2 11 5 8 6 7.7 -8.9 4.3 Declining Growing Growing Slower Slower From Contraction 2 13 1 Direction Manufacturing Sub-Sectors \1 The composite PMI is a weighted average of the following diffusion indices: production level, new orders, supplier deliveries, employment level and inventories. The weights assigned to these variables are 25%, 30%, 15%, 10% and 20% respectively. *The series index is a diffusion index defined as a weighted percentage of high, same and low with 1.0, 0.5 and 0.0 as weights respectively. ** Number of month moving in current direction Table 2: Production at a Glance Index PRODUCTION PMI Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index February 57.8 50.0 57.5 62.5 40.0 62.2 60.0 50.0 62.5 50.0 73.3 16.7 40.0 50.0 50.0 Series Index March 59.1 87.5 60.0 87.5 58.3 68.5 46.2 33.3 41.7 50.0 50.0 66.7 33.3 50.0 87.5 7 Difference 1.3 37.5 2.5 25.0 18.3 6.3 -13.8 -16.7 -20.8 0.0 -23.3 50.0 -6.7 0.0 37.5 Rate Trend of (Months) Change Growing Faster 13 Growing From No Change 1 Growing Faster 2 Growing Faster 2 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing Faster 18 Declining From Expansion 1 Declining From No Change 1 Declining From Expansion 1 No Change Flat 2 No Change From Expansion 1 Growing From Contraction 1 Declining Faster 2 No Change Flat 2 Growing From No Change 1 Direction
9. Table 3 : New Orders at a Glance Index NEW ORDERS PMI Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index February 55.6 25.0 50.0 75.0 50.0 54.4 70.0 37.5 68.8 83.3 56.7 83.3 20.0 63.3 50.0 Series Index March 56.1 50.0 61.7 100.0 55.6 60.5 46.2 50.0 66.7 50.0 43.8 50.0 55.6 50.0 25.0 Rate Trend Difference Direction of (Months) Change 0.5 Growing Faster 12 25.0 No ChangeFrom Contraction 1 11.7 Growing From No Change 1 25.0 Growing Faster 2 5.6 Growing From No Change 1 6.1 Growing Faster 18 -23.8 Declining From Expansion 1 12.5 No ChangeFrom Contraction 1 -2.1 Growing Slower 4 -33.3 No Change From Expansion 1 -12.9 Declining From Expansion 1 -33.3 No Change From Expansion 1 35.6 Growing From Contraction 1 -13.3 No Change From Expansion 1 -25.0 Declining From No Change 1 Table 4: Supplier Delivery Time at a Glance Index SUPPLIER DELIVERY TIME PMI Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index February 57.0 25.0 65.0 50.0 50.0 53.3 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 46.7 66.7 70.0 80.0 75.0 Series Index March 56.6 50.0 51.7 37.5 58.3 54.0 42.3 66.7 66.7 90.0 65.6 41.7 66.7 60.7 75.0 8 Difference Direction -0.4 25.0 -13.3 -12.5 8.3 0.7 -7.7 16.7 16.7 40.0 18.9 -25.0 -3.3 -19.3 0.0 Growing No Change Growing Declining Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Rate Trend of (Months) Change Slower 10 From Contraction 1 Slower 4 From No Change 1 From No Change 1 Faster 7 From No Change 1 From No Change 1 From No Change 1 From No Change 1 From Contraction 1 From Expansion 1 Slower 2 Slower 7 Flat 2
10. Table 5 : Employment Level at a Glance Index EMPLOYMENT LEVEL PMI Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index February 53.9 50.0 67.5 12.5 35.0 57.8 40.0 37.5 50.0 33.3 63.3 66.7 40.0 56.7 25.0 Series Index March 53.3 75.0 65.0 75.0 55.6 51.6 42.3 50.0 41.7 70.0 56.3 50.0 38.9 46.4 25.0 Difference -0.6 25.0 -2.5 62.5 20.6 -6.2 2.3 12.5 -8.3 36.7 -7.0 -16.7 -1.1 -10.3 0.0 Rate Trend of (Months) Change Growing Slower 11 Growing From No Change 1 Growing Slower 2 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing Slower 6 Declining Slower 2 No Change From Contraction 1 Declining From No Change 1 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing Slower 7 No Change From Expansion 1 Declining Faster 2 Declining From Expansion 1 Declining Flat 3 Direction Table 6: Raw Materials Inventory at a Glance Index RAW MATERIALS INVENTORY PMI Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index February 58.1 100.0 52.5 75.0 50.0 56.7 40.0 50.0 56.3 66.7 80.0 66.7 50.0 53.3 50.0 Series Index March 59.4 100.0 55.0 100.0 50.0 66.1 65.4 33.3 50.0 60.0 56.3 33.3 44.4 53.6 75.0 9 Difference Direction 1.3 0.0 2.5 25.0 0.0 9.4 25.4 -16.7 -6.3 -6.7 -23.7 -33.4 -5.6 0.3 25.0 Growing Growing Growing Growing No Change Growing Growing Declining No Change Growing Growing Declining Declining Growing Growing Rate Trend of (Months) Change Faster 12 Flat 4 Faster 2 Faster 4 Flat 2 Faster 18 From Contraction 1 From No Change 1 From Expansion 1 Slower 2 Slower 3 From Expansion 1 From No Change 1 Faster 6 From No Change 1
11. Table 7 : Non-Manufacturing at a Glance Index Composite PMI \1 Business Activity Level of new orders/customers/incoming business Level of employment Inventory Average price of Inputs (volume weighted) Level of outstanding business/ Backlog of work New Exports orders Imports Inventory (sentiments) Series Index February 56.1 55.6 53.7 55.3 59.8 52.8 41.2 34.7 39.1 40.3 Series Index March 57.2 58.7 55.8 55.1 59.2 50.3 42.9 39.0 38.5 44.1 48.8 57.0 56.7 62.5 53.1 62.2 56.8 64.0 62.5 51.4 31.3 50.0 48.8 62.5 40.6 63.3 52.7 62.2 49.7 59.5 62.1 67.0 52.9 54.2 62.5 61.9 87.5 54.2 49.0 70.3 60.4 57.3 1.1 3.1 2.1 -0.2 -0.6 -2.5 1.7 4.3 -0.6 3.8 Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Rate of Change Faster Faster Faster Slower Slower Slower Slower Slower Faster Slower 3.9 5.2 -7.0 -3.0 9.0 4.8 -3.9 -9.8 0.0 10.5 56.2 4.2 0.2 7.8 19.8 -6.0 Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing From Contraction Faster From Expansion Slower Faster Faster Slower Slower Flat Faster From Contraction From No Change Slower Faster From Contraction Slower Difference Direction Trend (Months) 11 12 12 11 11 29 45 45 45 45 Non-manufacturing sub-sectors Accommodation & food services Agriculture Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade 1 22 1 16 13 13 11 12 2 4 1 1 2 12 1 10 \1 The composite PMI is a simple average of the following diffusion (series) indices: business activity, new orders, employment level and inventories Table 8: Business activity at a Glance Index BUSINESS ACTIVITY PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index February 55.6 41.5 58.0 64.3 67.9 50.0 63.9 57.1 61.1 50.0 50.0 25.0 66.7 45.0 75.0 37.5 56.3 Series Index March 58.7 52.5 60.3 47.2 60.0 58.3 71.8 48.7 56.7 83.3 57.5 100.0 58.3 62.5 75.0 66.7 67.2 10 Difference 3.1 11.0 2.3 -17.1 -7.9 8.3 7.9 -8.4 -4.4 33.3 7.5 75.0 -8.4 17.5 0.0 29.2 10.9 Direction Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Rate Trend of (Months) Change Faster 12 From Contraction 1 Faster 22 From Expansion 1 Slower 7 From No Change 1 Faster 12 From Expansion 1 Slower 12 From No Change 1 From No Change 1 From Contraction 1 Slower 7 From Contraction 1 Flat 12 From Contraction 1 Faster 11
12. Table 9 : New Orders at a Glance Index NEW ORDERS PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index February 53.7 41.7 50.0 65.0 64.3 62.5 65.3 43.3 80.0 66.7 44.4 25.0 33.3 35.0 75.0 25.0 62.5 Series Index March 55.8 52.5 62.5 50.0 58.0 50.0 67.3 46.2 60.0 66.7 60.0 50.0 50.0 33.3 75.0 58.3 55.2 Series Index February 55.3 56.0 58.0 47.6 64.3 37.5 58.3 56.7 50.0 66.7 50.0 50.0 58.3 55.0 50.0 37.5 56.3 Series Index March 55.1 54.1 58.6 47.2 58.0 80.0 60.0 52.6 53.4 50.0 57.5 100.0 52.8 50.0 68.8 58.3 50.0 Difference Direction 2.1 10.8 12.5 -15.0 -6.3 -12.5 2.0 2.9 -20.0 0.0 15.6 25.0 16.7 -1.7 0.0 33.3 -7.3 Growing Growing Growing No Change Growing No Change Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing No Change No Change Declining Growing Growing Growing Difference Direction -0.2 -1.9 0.6 -0.4 -6.3 42.5 1.7 -4.1 3.4 -16.7 7.5 50.0 -5.5 -5.0 18.8 20.8 -6.3 Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing No Change Growing Growing Growing No Change Growing Growing No Change Rate Trend of (Months) Change Faster 12 From Contraction 1 From No Change 1 From Expansion 1 Slower 5 From Expansion 1 Faster 13 Slower 2 Slower 12 Flat 2 From Contraction 1 From Contraction 1 From Contraction 1 Faster 2 Flat 12 From Contraction 1 Slower 10 Table 10: Employment at a Glance Index EMPLOYMENT LEVEL PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Rate Trend of (Months) Change Slower 11 Slower 8 Faster 11 Faster 3 Slower 15 From Contraction 1 Faster 10 Slower 10 From No Change 1 From Expansion 1 From No Change 1 From No Change 1 Slower 4 From Expansion 1 From No Change 1 From Contraction 1 From Expansion 1 Table 11: Inventory at a Glance Index INVENTORY PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index February 59.8 56.0 62.0 50.0 53.6 62.5 61.1 70.0 65.0 66.7 61.1 25.0 41.7 60.0 50.0 62.5 78.1 Series Index March 59.2 51.6 67.2 54.3 62.0 60.0 68.9 64.1 46.6 50.0 72.5 100.0 55.6 50.0 62.5 58.3 56.9 11 Difference -0.6 -4.4 5.2 4.3 8.4 -2.5 7.8 -5.9 -18.4 -16.7 11.4 75.0 13.9 -10.0 12.5 -4.2 -21.2 Rate Trend of (Months) Change Growing Slower 11 Growing Slower 2 Growing Faster 5 Growing From No Change 1 Growing Faster 5 Growing Slower 2 Growing Faster 2 Growing Slower 11 Declining From Expansion 1 No Change From Expansion 1 Growing Faster 4 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing From Contraction 1 No Change From Expansion 1 Growing From No Change 1 Growing Slower 4 Growing Slower 8 Direction
13. Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 June '17 July '17 Aug '17 Sep '17 Oct '17 Nov '17 Dec '17 Jan '18 Feb '18 Mar '18 51.3 49.7 54.0 51.9 52.2 49.8 50.2 53.0 48.9 52.0 49.4 49.5 47.8 48.4 50.7 49.2 51.2 51.2 47.2 45.5 45.9 43.7 45.8 41.9 44.1 42.1 42.5 44.1 46.0 52.0 48.2 44.6 47.7 51.1 52.5 52.9 54.1 53.6 55.3 55.0 55.9 59.3 57.3 56.3 56.7 55.2 49.7 57.4 55.1 55.1 51.2 50.4 57.4 52.1 56.9 53.6 51.5 49.7 51.0 54.9 52.0 55.4 55.4 49.3 45.0 46.6 42.7 47.9 40.2 43.0 40.5 40.9 42.3 46.9 57.6 51.3 45.2 50.8 58.5 58.7 58.2 59.3 57.4 58.8 58.4 59.3 63.2 59.6 57.8 59.1 53.0 51.2 57.6 55.3 56.9 51.1 49.3 54.7 48.9 54.1 49.7 50.8 46.2 50.1 52.1 49.3 52.9 52.7 46.2 43.0 43.0 41.8 42.7 37.0 42.4 37.5 38.7 40.3 45.1 51.8 47.9 44.0 45.6 50.1 50.5 51.0 52.7 52.3 53.5 52.8 54.3 60.0 58.3 55.6 56.1 46.4 49.9 46.4 46.2 45.1 49.7 51.3 43.8 47.8 42.7 44.6 42.0 43.5 43.1 46.8 42.7 47.3 45.2 48.4 52.8 50.6 52.2 50.2 55.6 51.7 57.4 55.6 57.7 53.2 47.9 48.5 48.7 51.3 47.5 49.9 50.3 51.3 52.0 55.4 55.5 56.0 57.4 56.8 57 56.6 46.9 45.9 49.3 46.8 47.2 46.8 51.1 50.0 46.4 48.9 48.0 48.5 48.4 44.8 47.1 48.4 45.5 47.5 46.0 45.0 45.5 42.0 45.7 42.2 43.8 40.4 41.2 42.2 40.6 48.6 45.3 41.7 43.6 46.6 50.7 51.1 51.8 51.5 52.8 53.1 53.7 53.9 53.3 53.9 53.3 52.9 52.2 55.7 52.4 51.7 48.4 49.3 56.4 47.1 53.9 48.0 53.3 52.6 52.4 49.0 53.1 52.2 52.7 45.8 44.7 47.1 43.0 43.9 39.4 41.4 40.0 40.9 42.9 46.1 51.6 46.3 44.8 49.1 50.6 50.8 52.3 53.6 54.9 56.4 56.5 57.1 61.1 57.7 58.1 59.4 12 43.6 40.8 45.4 45.9 46.0 44.6 47.7 50.1 38.1 43.0 36.9 40.0 40.1 37.6 40.3 39.8 38.7 38.0 38.3 39.2 37.8 36.3 38.7 35.3 38.5 31.2 26.3 37.3 39.6 37.2 33.1 38.4 38.5 37.7 37.6 32.6 37.5 36.7 30.4 35.5 37.6 40.2 35.1 42 36.4 50.6 48.6 49.3 49.7 53.3 53.6 48.7 54.0 50.1 50.2 51.6 49.2 47.9 49.0 47.5 49.1 46.2 48.6 52.6 53.0 56.4 63.9 59.6 61.4 60.8 64.1 66.5 65.2 65.7 70.4 67.9 69.9 65.0 65.1 61.3 62.7 60.4 58.8 58.2 55.4 54.0 54.3 55.0 55.9 52.1 54.2 52.7 52.9 56.7 60.9 56.3 55.6 60.9 56.4 54.4 59.0 56.7 55.0 53.1 52.8 53.8 52.8 56.5 56.7 57.0 60.9 67.8 68.4 70.0 64.2 69.8 74.0 71.8 71.2 73.2 71.4 70.9 68.3 69.2 68.4 66.6 64.1 64.9 65.7 62.7 64.3 63.4 63.3 65.4 61.1 53.3 50.8 55.1 57.1 56.0 51.4 52.5 58.0 48.7 53.0 50.5 53.0 51.7 50.2 51.0 48.3 51.0 54.5 49.9 42.8 41.6 43.6 42.7 39.0 41.6 39.9 42.8 43.5 48.1 52.7 48.4 47.7 50.1 45.1 46.1 46.2 48.0 49.0 49.4 49.6 48.1 53.6 49.1 54.3 54.1 46.4 45.4 46.9 50.5 50.0 47.5 48.8 50.7 44.5 48.3 44.9 45.3 45.2 43.7 42.5 45.6 46.0 45.1 44.2 38.5 41.2 42.6 37.0 40.2 41.9 38.3 37.1 39.2 45.2 45.3 43.6 43.2 43.6 40.0 42.3 43.9 42.1 47.9 51.9 50.8 50.0 45.7 42.9 37.6 42.1 Stock of Finished Goods Backlog of Work Quantity of Purchases Input Prices Output Prices New Export Orders Raw Materials Inventory Employment Level Supplier Delivery Time New Orders Production Level COMPOSITE PMI Month Table 12: Manufacturing PMI Data Series 47.2 48.6 49.8 51.7 47.6 51.1 45.5 53.7 46.5 48.7 45.6 49.3 45.3 46.1 43.2 46.8 46.9 46.4 46.3 44.4 43.8 41.6 40.1 36.0 39.0 38.3 42.4 39.9 42.0 48.5 46.9 43.9 45.1 46.4 51.8 49.1 48.5 51.6 50.4 50.0 48.8 47.4 45.4 53.3 48.7
14. Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 June '17 July '17 Aug '17 Sep '17 Oct '17 Nov '17 Dec '17 Jan '18 Feb '18 Mar '18 55.0 58.9 54.7 57.3 59.6 53.8 50.6 54.0 48.6 53.7 51.7 50.1 50.0 50.7 50.1 51.9 49.6 53.4 46.9 44.3 45.4 44.3 44.3 42.3 43.2 43.7 41.0 43.4 42.8 47.1 49.4 44.5 47.1 49.5 52.7 54.2 54.4 54.1 54.9 55.3 57.6 62.1 58.5 56.1 57.2 58.9 60.6 57.1 59.6 62.5 56.2 48.8 54.2 49.7 58.2 52.9 51.5 50.4 52.3 52.1 54.2 52.9 55.9 46.2 43.7 46.3 44.2 44.3 40.2 42.8 43.6 39.9 43.0 43.0 48.2 50.6 45.4 49.8 53.3 56.2 57.0 56.8 56.1 56.8 57.5 59.4 67.4 61.3 55.6 58.7 55.9 59.8 57.5 59.4 63.6 56.0 50.4 54.7 51.1 56.8 53.1 50.3 51.4 52.4 52.3 54.1 51.6 56.4 46.4 42.0 44.7 42.2 41.3 39.6 42.3 42.0 40.0 42.7 42.3 46.9 49.4 44.9 46.4 50.5 53.2 54.6 55.1 53.5 55.4 55.7 58.4 62.2 58.2 53.7 55.8 50.2 58.3 49.9 53.9 57.9 51.4 51.2 52.5 45.6 49.1 49.7 46.4 48.6 48.0 47.0 49.3 45.6 50.0 47.0 44.5 43.9 43.3 44.6 42.5 41.9 41.4 40.3 41.5 40.2 43.8 45.6 42.6 44.0 45.5 50.2 53.4 54.0 54.4 54.7 54.4 54.6 55.7 55.1 55.3 55.1 55.2 57.0 54.3 56.4 54.6 51.5 51.9 54.5 48.0 50.8 51.1 52.0 49.5 50.1 49.1 50.1 48.5 51.5 47.9 47.1 46.5 47.6 46.9 47.1 45.8 47.7 43.9 46.4 45.5 49.5 52.0 44.9 48.0 48.6 51.4 51.8 51.9 52.3 52.9 53.4 58.0 62.9 59.5 59.8 59.2 13 54.0 56.1 52.8 53.3 57.3 54.5 48.8 54.1 49.8 51.5 51.3 48.5 50.3 50.7 48.7 49.9 51.8 54.7 57.3 53.6 58.5 62.2 62.9 60.7 60.4 60.8 63.1 65.3 66.8 64.0 65.6 65.4 62.1 63.1 62.7 58.6 58.1 54.5 56.9 56.4 55.7 56.1 56.9 52.8 50.3 46.2 47.0 46.2 46.4 49.6 45.6 43.2 46.0 46.5 46.6 44.1 44.4 43.8 43.0 44.5 43.9 42.8 47.0 44.3 39.6 43.8 43.1 38.1 39.6 38.6 39.4 39.6 40.9 42.4 41.5 43.6 42.9 42.7 41.6 45.3 40.5 42.9 42.8 42.2 41.4 43.6 44.6 41.3 41.2 42.9 44.0 46.1 40.7 40.8 45.2 43.6 41.1 43.0 39.9 41.1 37.2 36.9 39.1 39.8 42.9 40.3 37.7 41.9 36.2 37.5 34.3 31.8 33.2 33.2 30.0 32.9 28.6 32.8 30.8 33.8 32.5 33.4 33.1 29.2 31.6 30.3 32.0 34.5 31.2 29.6 28.8 34.6 31.0 34.7 39 47.3 46.4 45.2 44.9 47.5 46.5 44.3 44.6 44.2 44.5 39.1 40.4 39.2 38.3 41.4 42.4 39.0 42.7 39.0 36.6 35.0 33.1 35.0 34.7 32.7 34.2 30.2 33.8 34.0 35.5 36.1 34.5 34.5 33.2 34.1 33.5 36.8 34.8 35.9 35.4 33.3 39.1 35.1 39.1 38.5 Inventories (sentiment) Imports New Exports Orders Backlog of Work Average Input Price Inventory Employment Level New orders Business Activity COMPOSITE PMI Month Table 13: Non-Manufacturing PMI Data Series 47.8 48.1 47.6 43.8 48.1 43.8 47.0 46.1 40.2 43.0 44.3 42.7 44.0 44.0 45.9 45.2 41.8 47.2 41.6 43.6 41.1 39.8 40.3 38.5 38.0 39.4 37.9 38.7 41.1 41.6 45.5 38.7 40.6 41.1 43.6 42.7 41.5 42.0 44.2 38.9 40.6 40.3 42.8 40.3 44.1