Pakistan: Inflation Monitor - July 2017

Transcription

1. Inflation Monitor July 2017 State Bank of Pakistan Statistics & DWH Department
2. ISSN 1992-8327 (print) ISSN 1992-8335 (online) The analysis in this document is based on data   Provided by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), for domestic inflation analysis Retrieved from IMF & World Bank websites for global inflation analysis http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/inflation_Monitor ii
3. Contents 1 . Inflation in Brief ………………………………………………… 2. City- wise Inflation …………………………………….................... 3. Income Group- wise Inflation …………………………………………………. 4. Weighted Contribution ………………………………………………… 5. Inflation Diffusion Index ………………………………………………… 6. Domestic Commodity Prices ………………………………………………… 7. Global Commodity Prices ………………………………………………… 8. Seasonal Adjustment in CPI ………………………………………………... Annexure A Table A1 CPI Inflation by Groups Table A2 Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) of CPI Basket Table A3 Top and Bottom 15 Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) Table A3.1 Top and Bottom 15 Contributors to CPI Inflation (MoM) Table A3.2 Top Fifteen Contributors to CPI Inflation (YoY) Table A3.3 Top Ten Contributors to CPI Food Inflation (YoY) Table A3.4 Top Ten Contributors to CPI Non-Food Inflation (YoY) Table A4 Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected CPI Items Table A5 City-wise CPI Inflation by Income Groups Table A6 City- wise CPI Inflation (YoY) Table A7 Income Group-wise Inflation Table A8 SPI Item-wise Price Movements Table A9 Distribution of Price Changes (YoY)-WPI Items Table A10 Consumer Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Table A11 Wholesale Price Index Numbers by Major Groups and Composite Commodities Table A12 Price Indices Table A13 International Commodity Prices/ Indices Table A14 CPI Data Series- Original and Seasonally Adjusted Table A15 CPI Food Data Series- Original and Seasonally Adjusted Table A16 CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Table A17 CPI Food Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Table A18 CPI Month-on-Month % Change- Original & Seasonally Adjusted Table A19 CPI Food Month-on-Month % Change- Original & Seasonally Adjusted Figure A1 Figure A2 Figure A3 Figure A4 Annexure B CPI Non-food Inflation Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of CPI Items Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of WPI Commodities Group- wise/ overall Inflation Diffusion Index and Respective/ Overall YoY Inflation Technical Notes Page 1 7 8 10 11 12 12 13 17 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29-30 31-32 33 34 35 36 37 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44-47
4. Inflation Monitor , July 2017 Team  Naseer Ahmad Additional Director naseer.ahmed@sbp.org.pk  Muhammad Abdus Salam Joint Director muhammad.abdussalam@sbp.org.pk iv
5. State Bank of Pakistan Review Inflation in Brief 1 . Headline CPI inflation (2007-08=100) is recorded at level of 2.9 percent on year-on-year basis in July 2017 as compared to 3.9 percent in the previous month and 4.1 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 2. CPI inflation on month-on-month basis is recorded at level of 0.3 percent in July 2017 as compared to -0.4 percent previous month and 1.3 percent during the corresponding month of last year. Seasonally adjusted month-on-month CPI inflation is recorded at -0.35 percent in July 2017 compared to -0.33 percent in the previous month. 3. Core inflation (trimmed) on year-on-year basis is recorded at 4.0 percent in July 2017 as compared to 4.2 percent in the previous month and 3.6 percent during corresponding month of last year. 4. On month-on-month basis, the Core inflation (trimmed) is recorded at 0.4 percent in July 2017 as compared to zero level in the previous month and 0.5 percent during corresponding month of last year. 5. Non-food, non-energy inflation measured by CPI Core (NFNE) on year-onyear basis is recorded at 5.6 percent in July 2017 as compared to 5.5 percent in the previous month. It was 4.5 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 6. Core NFNE inflation on month-on-month basis recorded at 0.7 percent in July 2017 compared to 0.1 percent in the previous month. Core NFNE inflation was 0.6 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 1
6. Inflation Monitor , July 2017 7. WPI inflation on year-on-year basis decreased to 0.7 percent in July 2017 as compared to 3.3 percent in the previous month and 3.0 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 8. WPI inflation on month-on-month basis recorded at -0.2 percent in July 2017 as compared to -0.5 percent in the previous month and 2.3 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 9. SPI inflation on year-on-year basis recorded at 0.2 percent in July 2017 as compared to 1.9 percent in the previous month. It was 1.7 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 10. SPI inflation on month-on-month basis recorded at -0.6 percent in July 2017 as compared to 0.1 percent in the previous month. It was 1.0 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 1.1 A New Measure of Core Inflation A new method of permanently excluding relatively volatile commodities from CPI basket in Pakistan has been developed by SBP. This is achieved by making use of trimming approach on past data on monthly CPI changes to isolate a Relatively Stable Component of CPI (RSC-CPI) as a new measure of core inflation. This method ensures inclusion of both food and non-food commodities that show persistent price behavior in Pakistan (see technical notes for details). Developments in core inflation measured by RSC- CPI for the month of July 2017 are described below:  2 Core RSC inflation on year-on-year basis is recorded at 4.4 percent in July 2017 as compared to 4.5 percent in the previous month and 4.8 percent during the corresponding month of last year.
7. State Bank of Pakistan 11 . Core RSC inflation on month-on-month basis is recorded at 0.4 percent in July 2017 compared to -0.4 percent in the previous month and it was 0.6 percent in the corresponding month of last year. Monthly CPI, WPI and SPI data is summarized in the following table. Table 1.1 Inflation Trends (percent) (Base 2007- 08 = 100) CPI Inflation Period General Core Inflation Nonfood Food NFNE* YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM Trimmed WPI Inflation RSC** YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM SPI*** Inflation YoY MoM Jul-16 4.1 1.3 4.7 2.5 3.7 0.5 4.5 0.6 3.6 0.5 4.8 0.6 3.0 2.3 1.7 1.0 Aug-16 3.6 -0.3 3.4 -0.9 3.7 0.2 4.6 0.2 3.5 0.1 4.8 0.2 3.5 0.0 2.0 -0.1 Sep-16 3.9 0.2 4.0 0.1 3.8 0.2 4.8 0.3 3.7 0.1 4.7 0.2 3.4 -0.5 1.6 0.0 Oct-16 4.2 0.8 4.4 0.8 4.1 0.8 5.1 0.9 3.8 0.6 4.9 0.7 2.8 0.0 1.4 0.7 Nov-16 3.8 0.2 3.3 0.2 4.1 0.2 5.3 0.2 3.8 0.2 5.0 0.2 2.6 -0.2 0.6 0.3 Dec-16 3.7 -0.7 3.0 -1.9 4.2 0.2 5.2 0.1 3.7 0.1 4.7 0.2 3.1 -0.1 0.5 -0.4 Jan-17 3.7 0.2 2.6 -1.0 4.4 1.0 5.4 1.1 3.8 0.6 4.9 0.9 4.2 0.5 0.4 -0.6 Feb-17 4.2 0.3 3.7 0.3 4.6 0.3 5.3 0.2 4.1 0.2 4.9 0.2 5.3 0.5 1.6 0.4 Mar-17 4.9 0.8 5.0 1.9 4.9 0.1 5.2 0.1 4.5 0.2 5.0 0.2 6.4 0.7 3.9 2.0 Apr-17 4.8 1.4 4.4 1.7 5.1 1.2 5.5 1.3 4.8 0.8 5.3 1.1 6.0 0.9 2.9 -0.7 May-17 5.0 0.0 4.9 -0.2 5.1 0.2 5.5 0.2 4.8 0.2 5.3 0.3 5.2 -0.2 2.9 -0.7 Jun-17 3.9 -0.4 2.4 -1.1 5.0 0.1 5.5 0.1 4.2 0.0 4.5 -0.4 3.3 -0.5 1.9 0.1 Jul-17 2.9 0.3 -0.1 0.0 5.1 0.6 5.6 0.7 4.0 0.4 4.4 0.4 0.7 -0.2 0.2 -0.6 * NFNE is Non-food non-energy ** Relatively Stable Component of CPI *** SPI for all income groups combined 3
8. 4 Jul-16 1 0 -1 -5 -3 Jul-17 5 10 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 YoY Jun-17 f : SPI 3 May-17 e: WPI -5 Apr-17 10 -3 Sep-16 b: CPI Food Mar-17 -5 Feb-17 -1 Jan-17 0 Dec-16 1 Jan-17 5 Dec-16 3 Nov-16 10 Nov-16 c: NFNE Oct-16 -3 Sep-16 -5 Oct-16 -1 Sep-16 0 Jul-16 1 Aug-16 3 Aug-16 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Sep-16 5 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Sep-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 a: CPI Aug-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 10 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Sep-16 Aug-16 Inflation Monitor, July 2017 Fig 1.1: Summary of Price Inflation 10 MoM 2 3 5 2 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 -5 -2 -3 d: 20% Trimmed Mean 2 10 3 5 2 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 2 3 5 2 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 -5 -2 -3
9. 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 Jul-15 15 Jul-17 -5 Mar-17 -5 May-17 0 Jan-17 0 Sep-16 5 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Sep-16 Aug-16 YoY Nov-16 5 Jul-16 10 May-16 10 Jan-16 15 Mar-16 d : WPI Jul-16 Jun-16 May-16 Apr-16 Mar-16 Feb-16 Jan-16 Dec-15 Nov-15 Oct-15 Sep-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 15 Nov-15 b: NFNE Sep-15 15 Jul-15 Jul-17 May-17 Mar-17 Jan-17 Nov-16 Sep-16 Jul-16 May-16 Mar-16 Jan-16 Nov-15 Sep-15 State Bank of Pakistan Fig 1.2:Movements in Price Indices (percent) a: CPI 12mma 10 5 0 -5 c: 20% Trimmed Mean e: SPI 5
10. 6 Jul-14 d : WPI 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 Jul-17 4 Apr-17 -4 Jan-17 -4 Oct-16 -2 Jul-16 -2 Jan-16 0 Apr-16 0 Oct-15 2 Jul-15 2 Apr-15 4 Jan-15 b: NFNE Oct-14 4 Jul-14 Jul-17 Apr-17 Jan-17 Oct-16 Jul-16 Apr-16 Jan-16 Oct-15 Jul-15 Apr-15 Jan-15 Oct-14 Jul-17 May-17 Mar-17 Jan-17 Nov-16 Sep-16 Jul-16 May-16 Mar-16 Jan-16 Nov-15 Sep-15 Jul-15 May-15 Mar-15 Jan-15 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 Inflation Monitor, July 2017 Fig 1.3:Movements in Price Indices -MoM ( percent) 4 a: CPI 2 0 -2 -4 c: 20% Trimmed Mean e: SPI
11. State Bank of Pakistan Fig 1 .4: Trends in Consumer Price Inflation a: Consumer Price Index b: CPI Inflation (YoY) 10 Consumer Price Index (2007-08=100). 220 8 Percent 210 6 4 200 2 2016-17 2017-18 c: Inflation Build-up over June 2016-17 May June April March January February December October 2015-16 November September July August May 0 June April March January February December October 2015-16 November September July August 190 2017-18 MoM Seasonally Adjusted Growth Rates 1.0 10 0.8 Percent 8 0.6 0.4 6 0.2 4 0.0 -0.2 2 -0.4 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2015-16 2016-17 June May April March February January December November October September August -0.6 July June May April March February January December November October September July August 0 2017-18 2. City wise Inflation CPI Inflation on year-on-year basis in federal and provincial capitals of Pakistan showed mixed trend during July 2017. Among these five cities, the lowest inflation was observed in Karachi and Peshawar at 1.3 percent while the highest inflation was observed in Islamabad at 4.7 percent (Table A6 of annexure-A). 7
12. Inflation Monitor , July 2017 Table 2.1 City-wise Inflation of Selected Cities (percent) Jul-16 Jun-17 Jul-17 MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY Overall CPI 1.3 4.1 -0.4 3.9 0.3 2.9 Islamabad 1.2 3.2 0.0 5.0 1.0 4.7 Karachi 0.8 4.4 -0.7 2.1 0.0 1.3 Lahore 1.7 2.5 -0.7 4.9 0.5 3.7 Peshawar 2.3 3.6 -0.8 3.2 0.4 1.3 Quetta 1.4 3.4 1.2 2.7 0.8 2.1 3. Income Group wise Inflation Income group-wise data shows that income group above Rs. 35,000 witnessed higher inflation as compared to other quintiles as well as overall CPI during July 2017 in General, Food and Non-food groups. The lowest income group (Up to Rs. 8, 000) observed lowest inflation in general and food groups among income groups during the month of July 2017 (Table A7 of annexure-A). Table 3.1 Income Group- wise Inflation (YoY) (percent) General Food Non-food Income Groups Jul-16 Jun-17 Jul-17 Jul-16 Jun-17 Jul-17 Jul-16 Jun-17 Jul-17 All Groups Combined 4.1 3.9 2.9 4.7 2.4 -0.1 3.7 5.0 5.1 Up to Rs. 8,000 4.5 3.1 1.6 4.9 1.6 -1.1 4.0 5.0 4.9 Rs. 8,001- 12,000 4.6 3.3 2.0 4.7 1.9 -0.7 4.4 4.8 4.9 Rs. 12,001- 18,000 3.9 3.4 2.2 4.8 2.0 -0.6 3.0 4.9 4.9 Rs. 18,001- 35,000 4.4 3.6 2.4 4.9 2.1 -0.4 4.1 4.8 4.7 Above Rs. 35,000 4.1 4.4 3.6 4.5 2.9 0.7 3.9 5.2 5.2 8
13. State Bank of Pakistan 9
14. Inflation Monitor , July 2017 4. Weighted Contribution The weighted contribution of food group in the overall inflation decreased to -1.32 percent during July 2017 from 24.92 percent in previous month. It was 47.51 percent in July 2016. The weighted contribution of non-food group increased to 101.32 percent in July 2017 from 75.08 percent in previous month. Table 4.1 Weighted Contribution to CPI Inflation (YoY) Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & Other Fuel Transport Education 47.51 9.16 32.21 -7.65 7.07 11.70 Aug-16 39.62 10.36 35.09 -7.91 8.72 14.13 Sep-16 42.70 9.45 29.26 -4.86 10.72 12.72 Oct-16 43.11 8.24 30.79 -4.55 10.57 11.84 Nov-16 36.64 9.16 33.91 -5.95 12.22 14.02 Dec-16 33.90 9.91 35.29 -5.45 12.65 13.70 Jan-17 29.56 9.82 35.77 -4.98 12.73 17.10 Feb-17 35.54 8.29 30.79 0.59 10.97 13.82 Mar-17 41.86 6.08 26.25 5.34 9.03 11.44 Apr-17 37.84 5.94 28.43 5.11 11.07 11.60 May-17 40.46 6.15 27.25 4.96 9.55 11.63 Jun-17 24.92 8.04 34.43 5.77 11.93 14.92 Jul-17 -1.32 11.08 48.14 6.37 16.42 19.31 Period Jul-16 10 Food Others
15. State Bank of Pakistan 5 . Inflation Diffusion Index Table 5.1 Inflation Diffusion Index - based on MoM change Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 32.7 39.7 10.3 30.1 41.1 33.5 32.3 38.0 28.5 41.6 35.3 22.4 36.8 51.8 34.2 6.1 20.0 28.2 17.9 10.5 35.1 25.7 40.4 27.1 5.3 28.7 100.0 33.3 -16.7 -16.7 100.0 83.3 66.7 100.0 33.3 100.0 33.3 0.0 0.0 42.4 37.3 5.1 54.2 57.6 66.1 45.8 27.1 25.4 45.8 54.2 47.5 52.5 52.8 22.2 5.6 25.0 41.7 38.9 41.7 22.2 0.0 41.7 19.4 13.9 55.6 Furnishing & Household 20.3 Equip. Maintenance etc 60.9 11.6 46.4 53.6 47.8 49.3 62.3 44.9 56.5 73.9 42.0 63.8 Health 20.5 46.2 33.3 43.6 46.2 46.2 17.9 33.3 38.5 38.5 17.9 7.7 30.8 Transport 4.7 27.9 9.3 2.3 7.0 0.0 30.2 30.2 11.6 11.6 11.6 16.3 16.3 Communication 25.0 16.7 8.3 33.3 50.0 25.0 16.7 25.0 50.0 50.0 16.7 33.3 16.7 Recreation & Culture -2.6 7.7 10.3 -7.7 25.6 23.1 15.4 30.8 23.1 17.9 12.8 10.3 20.5 Education -6.3 50.0 37.5 37.5 43.8 0.0 18.8 6.3 12.5 37.5 6.3 12.5 18.8 Restaurant & Hotels 66.7 83.3 50.0 33.3 33.3 50.0 50.0 66.7 83.3 83.3 66.7 66.7 33.3 Miscellaneous 48.6 77.1 -2.9 60.0 71.4 40.0 77.1 60.0 45.7 57.1 57.1 40.0 37.1 NFNE 24.9 42.3 11.5 34.6 45.6 37.6 39.1 37.6 28.1 40.2 38.5 28.4 42.3 General Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & other Fuels See annexure B (Technical Notes) for the definition of Inflation Diffusion Index. 11
16. Inflation Monitor , July 2017 6. Domestic Commodity Prices Table 6.1 Inflation in Domestic CPI Food Commodities (percent) Jul-16 Jun-17 Sr. No Item YoY MoM YoY MoM Unit 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Wheat Wheat Flour Bag Rice Basmati Sup. Qlty. Pulse Masoor (Washed) Pulse Moong (Washed) Pulse Mash (Washed) Pulse Gram Vegetable Ghee (Loose) Sugar Refined Milk Fresh (Unboiled) Tea- Tapal Danedar Beef With Bone Av. Qlty. Mutton Av. Qlty. Chicken Farm Broiler (Live) Eggs Farm Potatoes Onion Tomatoes Ginger Garlic 10 Kg 10 Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Ltr 200 Gm Kg Kg Kg Doz Kg Kg Kg Kg Kg Jul-17 YoY MoM -2.32 0.08 1.01 0.01 0.18 -0.74 -1.35 1.32 0.18 -0.77 -2.21 -1.09 -9.00 1.54 12.49 0.41 11.95 1.05 8.88 0.19 -16.11 -1.02 -16.34 -0.10 -2.96 -0.93 -18.77 -0.85 -18.01 0.00 47.13 -0.88 -24.82 -0.15 -24.96 -1.06 45.81 5.63 -8.86 -1.62 -16.15 -2.82 -2.07 -0.77 4.31 -0.03 5.19 0.07 2.38 3.60 -11.01 -3.37 -15.80 -1.97 4.37 0.79 3.92 0.00 3.81 0.68 15.54 -0.49 9.11 -0.03 10.58 0.85 3.91 0.20 5.57 1.23 5.58 0.20 7.01 0.65 7.47 1.25 7.01 0.22 -18.91 -4.51 -5.70 -5.03 3.04 4.33 3.75 2.22 8.89 13.72 4.46 8.35 32.10 17.45 26.54 8.25 12.24 4.18 -23.34 1.57 -14.15 -7.17 -7.03 10.00 58.41 92.22 8.16 9.41 -45.10 -2.43 -38.43 -0.93 6.46 3.19 17.33 9.18 66.10 23.73 7.56 -7.77 -16.71 -4.19 7. Global Commodity Prices Table 7.1 Changes in Major Global Indices (percent)* Item/ Group Overall Food Metals Energy Agricultural Raw Material Cotton Jun-16 YoY -18.1 4.7 -18.1 -27.2 -10.3 -3.5 May-17 MoM 6.0 3.8 -3.5 10.9 -0.1 1.4 *The latest prices for the month of July, 2017 are not available till date 12 YoY 17.4 1.1 18.1 28.9 5.8 25.6 Jun-17 MoM -0.1 -1.6 -6.4 2.5 -1.4 0.3 YoY 8.2 1.2 17.5 11.0 3.5 26.1 MoM -2.3 3.9 -3.9 -4.4 -2.3 1.8 Source: IMF
17. State Bank of Pakistan 8 . Seasonal Adjustment in CPI Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the seasonal effects from a time series after decomposing it into seasonal, trend, cycle and irregular components. The purpose is to identify the different components of the time series and thus provide a better understanding of its underlying behavior. Seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred for analyzing general price trends in the economy because they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year. Various statistical methods can be used to decompose a time series into its constituent components. The State Bank of Pakistan uses X-12- ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method for this purpose. The changes in consumer prices are normally reported in terms of year-on-year and month-on-month basis. Seasonal adjustment is particularly useful for analyzing month-on-month changes. The monthly data series of Consumer Price Index (CPI) from July 2008 to July 2017 has been used for seasonal adjustment analysis. The seasonal analysis is carried out without taking trading-day or Islamic calendar month’s effects. Figure 8.1 reveals that seasonality in CPI has been increasing over the period of last four years. Average seasonal factors reveal strong seasonality during the calendar year. There is an upward seasonality during the months from July to November and downward seasonality in the remaining months of the year. Upward and downward seasonality is above and below the trend line respectively. It is important to note that seasonal factors are estimates based on present and past experience and that future data may not necessarily show the same pattern of seasonal factors. 13
18. Inflation Monitor , July 2017 Fig. 8.1 Seasonal Factors of CPI Average Seasonal Factors of CPI Seasonal Factors of CPI 103 102 102 101 101 100 100 99 99 98 98 97 97 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 103 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 99.5 99.6 98.9 99.1 100. 99.8 99.7 Note: Data Available in Annex Table 16. Fig. 8.2 Seasonal Factors of CPI Food Average Seasonal Factors of CPI Food Seasonal Factors of CPI Food Note: Data Available in Annex Table 17. 14 Jul-17 May-17 Jan-17 Mar-17 Nov-16 Jul-16 97 Sep-16 97 May-16 98 Jan-16 98 Mar-16 99 Nov-15 99 Jul-15 100 Sep-15 100 May-15 101 Jan-15 101 Mar-15 102 Nov-14 102 Jul-14 103 Sep-14 103 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 100.9101.5101.4101.5101.499.2498.9697.7098.4799.8299.4899.54
19. State Bank of Pakistan Figures 8 .3 & 8.4 show that seasonally adjusted series are relatively smoother than the original series due to the removal of the seasonal variations. The trend follows the long-term movement in original series, and is smoother than the original series because some irregular fluctuations have been removed. Fig. 8.3 Seasonal Plots of CPI Seasonal Plot- Original Series of CPI 250 FY14 FY15 FY16 Seasonal Plot -Adjusted Series of CPI FY17 FY18 250 240 240 230 230 220 220 210 210 200 200 190 190 180 180 170 170 160 160 150 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 150 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Fig. 8.4 Seasonal Plots of CPI (Food) Seasonal Plot -Adjusted Series of CPI Food Seasonal Plot- Original Series of CPI Food 250 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 250 240 240 230 230 220 220 210 210 200 200 190 190 180 180 170 170 160 160 150 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 150 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 15
20. Inflation Monitor , July 2017 Fig. 8.5 Month-on-Month Percent Changes in CPI Seasonally adjusted CPI for July 2017 stood at 215.20 against 216.19 in original series showing a decrease of 0.99 on account of adjustment of upward seasonality in July 2017. MoM % Changes in CPI Original Series 3 Seasonally Adjusted Series 2 1 0 -1 -2 Jul-17 May-17 Jun-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Jul-16 -3 Aug-16 Seasonally adjusted CPI food group for July 2017 stood at 232.23 against 234.47 in original series showing a decrease of 2.24 on account of adjustment of upward seasonality in July 2017. MoM Annualize % Change in CPI Original Series 40 Seasonally Adjusted Series 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Jul-17 May-17 Jun-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Jul-16 -30 Aug-16 Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted CPI series stood at -0.35% reflecting deccrease during July 2017 over previous month and an increase of 0.34% in original series. Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted Fig. 8.6 Month-on-Month Percent Changes in CPI Food MoM % Changes in CPI Food CPI food group series stood at -1.24% reflecting Original Series Seasonally Adjusted Series 3 decrease during July 2017 over previous month and 2 an increase of 0.04% in original series. 1 0 -2 Jul-17 May-17 Jun-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Jul-16 -3 Aug-16 It is important to note that inflation rates should be analyzed on the basis of seasonally adjusted rates. This is especially needed for inflation rates on monthon-month basis. -1 MoM Annualize % Change in CPI Food Original Series 40 Seasonally Adjusted Series 30 10 0 -10 -20 Jul-17 May-17 Jun-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Jan-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 -30 Jul-16 16 20 Aug-16 The most recent annual rate of inflation is usually indicated by annualizing the seasonally adjusted month-on-month rate. Annualized rate of CPI inflation in July 2017 (corresponding to the seasonally adjusted month-on-month rate) is -4.16 percent.