Pakistan Daily Economy Update - 6 December

Transcription

1. December 06 , 2022 KCCI - eBulletin Gold price hits record PKR 164k per tola Domestic gold price hit an all-time high of PKR 164,200/tola and PKR 140,604/10gms on 5th Dec’22, showing a jump of PKR 700 and PKR 601 from 3rd Dec’22 despite a $4 drop in world market rate to $1,794/ounce. Dawn. Source:suppliers: Coal importers making ‘informal’ payments Afghan Pakistani coal importers are making payments to their Afghan coal suppliers in an informal manner due to non-availability of formal channels. This was disclosed at a public hearing organized by Nepra to address some of the concerns raised by IPPs and coal suppliers in the existing approved guidelines for buying Afghan and non-Afghan coal on spot basis. The purpose of the hearing was to seek comments from stakeholders on how to optimize the existing spot purchase guidelines and bring in more competition. BR. Cotton production plunges to just 4.8Mn bales Cotton production has dropped by more than 40% mainly because of climate change and floods as the forex-starved country will have to import about 7Mn cotton bales to meet the textile industry’s demand this season. Total white lint production is expected to be barely 4.8Mn bales in 2022, while so far import contracts of around 5Mn bales have been signed. Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) have reported that cotton production remained 40.28% less than 2021’s harvest by 1st Dec’22, an alarming drop of 2.9Mn bales. In 2021, Pakistan produced over 7.168Mn bales before the start of Dec against 4.28Mn bales in 2022. Dawn. Govt. debt stocks hit historic high of PKR 50.152Tn According to SBP, federal govt.’s total debt (domestic and external) stocks rose by 5% during the 4MFY23 and crossed the PKR 50Tn. With current increase, cumulatively, the central govt.’s total domestic and external debt stocks rose to historical level of PKR 50.152Tn by Oct’22 compared to PKR 47.784Tn in Jun’22, depicting an increase of PKR 23.673Tn. Federal govt.’s domestic debt surged to PKR 32.501Tn in Oct’22 up from PKR 31.037Tn in Jun’22. Domestic debt included PKR 25.69Tn of permanent debt, PKR 3.11Tn unfunded debt and PKR 6.763Tn Floating Debt. Similarly, upward trend was also seen in the federal govt.’s external debt, which went up by 5% or PKR 9.037Tn during the 4MFY23. Govt.’s external debt stocks reached PKR 17.65Tn in Oct’22 as against PKR 16.747Tn in Jun’22. Total external debt is composed of PKR 17.419Tn long term and PKR 231.3Bn short term loans. According to SBP, the US$ exchange rate for the debt is calculated at PKR 220.42 in Oct’22 as against PKR 204.378 in Jul’22. BR. CDWP approves six projects for youths’ uplift Central Development Working Party (CDWP) has approved 6-projects worth PKR 47Bn for the youth of the country. The projects include PM’s Youth Laptop Scheme (Phase-III) at the cost of PKR 0.146162Bn, Overseas Scholarships Program for MS/MPhil leading to PhD in selected fields (Phase-III) at the cost of PKR 22.214578Bn, PM’s National Award and PM’s Youth Development Centre (YDC) at the cost of PKR 0.897554Bn, Provision of Higher Education Opportunities for Students of Baluchistan and FATA at the cost of PKR 8.66335Bn and PM ‘Ba-Salahiyat Naujawan’ Internship Program at the cost of PKR 4.7480Bn. BR. Revolving fund account for CPEC IPPs approved: ECC allows import of 0.583MTs of wheat ECC of the Cabinet has allowed the import of 0.583Mn tons of wheat and approved the revolving fund account for the CPEC IPPs from “Pakistan Energy Revolving Fund” to “Pakistan Energy Revolving Account”, for bringing it in conformity with the original CPEC agreement dated 8th Nov’14. ECC also approved the lowest bid of M/s Cereal Crop Trading at US$ 372/MT for the supply of 130,000 MT at Karachi ports for the shipment period from 16th Dec’22 to 8th Feb’23 and offer of Prodintorg, Russia on G2G basis at $ 372/MT for the supply of 450,000 MT at Gwadar Port for shipment period from 1st Feb’23 to 31st Mar’23. BR. New estimates place flood losses at $ 46Bn Federal Minister for Planning, Development and Special Initiatives said that the total estimated cost of damages caused by the devastating floods is about $ 46.4Bn, besides the floods have raised the poverty rate by 4% pushing between 8.4 and 9.1Mn people in poverty. “A conference of will be organized on 10th Jan’23 to help build a climate-resilient country,” said the minister, while speaking at the inaugural plenary of the 25th Sustainable Development Conference (SDC), organized by SDPI and jointly held alongside UNESCAP’s 6th South and Southwest Asia High-level Political Forum and Policy Dialogue on SDGs. BR. Auditors’ appointment: SECP decides to take risk-based approach SECP has decided to adopt a risk-based approach for the appointment of auditors through a single panel of auditors for the SECP’s regulated entities including securities brokers and insurance/modaraba sectors. In this regard, Circular no 21 of 2021 provides the \ approved list of auditors eligible to conduct audit of insurance/re-insurance/takaful entities. Further, various circulars and updates resting with Circular No 21 of 2005 dated 18th Nov’05, and Circular No 28 of 2009 dated 4th Sept’09, were issued for approved list of auditors for modaraba companies. Furthermore, under the Securities Brokers (Licensing and Operations) Regulations, 2016, various categories of securities broker shall appoint statutory auditor from specific categories on the SBP panel of auditors as prescribed therein. BR. Stagnant floodwaters threatening Rabi after destroying Kharif crops, warns SAB Sindh Abadgar Board (SAB) has urged the govt. to write off loans of small and medium-sized farmers in flood-hit areas along with provision of interest free loans and a 25% reduction in fertilizers’ prices. It also demanded that the department of livestock should ensure availability of vaccines and medicines for cattle heads in flood-hit areas and ensure immediate dewatering of the areas where large swathes of land were still inundated with floodwater where Rabi (winter) crops could not be cultivated. It asked the govt. to waive off its dues for the Kharif and Rabi seasons. Dawn. Auto financing drops for fourth consecutive month According to the data released by SBP, the outstanding auto financing stood at PKR 345Bn at the end of Oct’22, which is 0.1% lower than Oct’21 figure of PKR 346Bn. Latest outstanding auto-financing figure is 1.4% lower than its Sept’22 level. Dawn. List of Indicators Date / Period Unit Value Change Daily USD-Interbank USD-Open MKT 5-Dec 5-Dec PKR PKR 223.91 231.50 0.10% 0.04% KSE-100 index FIPI 5-Dec 5-Dec Pts. $ Mn 41,613 0.04 -1.28% NM** Crude Oil 5-Dec $/bbl 77.40 -4.62% Gold 5-Dec $/oz 1,781.3 -1.72% Gold (10g) Local 5-Dec PKR 140,350 0.55% Silver 5-Dec $/oz 22.42 -4.48% Cotton(KHI)-40 kg 5-Dec PKR 17,683 0.00% Kibor-6M 5-Dec % 16.97 -0.03% 25-Nov $ Bn 7.50 WoW -4.18% Remittances Jul-Oct 22 $ Bn 9.90 -6.18% Exports* Jul-Nov 22 $ Bn 11.93 -3.34% Imports* Jul-Nov 22 $ Bn 26.34 -20.03% Trade Balance* Jul-Nov 22 $ Bn -14.41 30.03% Current Account Foreign Direct Inv. Jul-Oct 22 Jul-Oct 22 $ Bn $ Bn -2.82 0.35 44.51% -52.06% Forex Reserves YoY Jul-Sep 22 LSM Growth* % -0.40 % 25.14 Jul-Nov 22 Avg. CPI Discount Rate % 15.00 Oct-22 Sources: KCCI Research, PMEX , NCCPL, KSE, SBP, PBS* **Not Meaningful; WoW= week on week; YoY=Year on Year; Major Currencies 305 295 285 275 265 255 245 235 225 215 205 195 185 175 165 155 145 Dec-21 GBP, 5-Dec-22, 294.4 EUR, 5-Dec-22, 251.3 USD, 5-Dec-22, 230.5 USD Mar-22 GBP Jun-22 EUR Sep-22 Dec-22 Source: KCCI Research Quote of the Day “Goal setting is the secret to a compelling future.” Tony Robbins PAKISTAN'S EXPORTS TO CHINA FY13 TO 4MFY23 ($ BN) 2.78 2.70 2.69 2.32 1.91 1.62 1.75 1.86 2.04 1.66 0.68 Russia to sell discounted oil to Pakistan: minister In a major achievement, Pakistan has secured a strong commitment from Russia for sale of the crude and other POL products at reduced prices under a G2G arrangement. A high-powered Russian delegation will visit Islamabad in Jan’23 to settle modalities and price. The govt. has also initiated talks with the Russian govt. for long-term contracts on a G2G basis for the supply of LNG from its under-construction LNG production plants that are to start operations in 2023. Besides, Islamabad has already started negotiations with the Russian private companies for the supply of LNG on an urgent basis. The News. Rupee to nosedive to PKR 330 by FY26 PKR is projected to lose its value by over 20% over the next 7-months to PKR 270 against the US$ in the interbank market by 30th Jun’23, says a local research house. Topline Research has anticipated that the currency will dive to PKR 290 by the end FY24 and will reach PKR 320 by end FY25. A further plummet, to PKR 330 against the greenback, is projected for the end FY26. Tribune. Farmer2Farmer initiative: Two Dutch farmers brought to Pakistan for training locals To aid knowledge transfer and best practice sharing in line with its Dairy Development Program (DDP), Friesland-Campina Pakistan invited certified dairy farmers from the Netherlands to train and advice Pakistani farmers on best dairy farming practices like animal health and welfare, feeding and watering, calf-rearing, milking hygiene, cow fertility, housing and barn design. BR. Source: KCCI Research, SBP Note **Green-colored change in indicators depicts Improvement, whereas Red demonstrates Deterioration **If any member is interested in exploring investment opportunities in Afghanistan, they may refer to their ongoing projects at https://bit.ly/3FgfACn . Interested businesses may contact secretary@kcci.com.pk or a.ameer.farooqi@gmail.com .