GCC Daily Market Update - 18 April

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 18 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,706.4 28.6 24,786.6 213.6 6,816.4 141.2 7,226.1 27.9 12,585.6 194.2 5,353.5 40.6 108,744.8 (1,942.9) 21,847.6 12.1 30,062.8 (252.8) 3,066.8 (43.9) 34,395.1 89.6 1.1 0.9 2.1 0.4 1.6 0.8 (1.8) 0.1 (0.8) (1.4) 0.3 2.5 2.8 3.6 2.4 4.0 3.6 (5.4) 1.8 (0.1) (3.2) 4.3 1.2 0.3 6.6 (6.0) (2.6) 0.8 (5.7) (4.0) 0.5 (7.3) 1.0 8,958.0 8,096.4 4,706.8 3,131.3 4,806.4 4,769.4 1,302.0 1,683.2 3,696.9 2.3 46.1 24.5 (9.2) (7.2) 2.2 2.5 1.5 29.8 0.0 0.6 0.5 (0.3) (0.2) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8 4.5 2.9 2.6 0.7 (3.2) (0.1) (1.2) 1.9 2.3 5.1 12.0 7.0 (7.1) NA (6.5) (2.2) 5.7 1.7 71.6 66.5 2.7 1,347.2 308.0 0.2 0.3 (0.0) (0.3) (1.6) 0.2 0.5 (0.5) (0.0) (0.5) 2.3 2.9 0.4 1.8 1.8 7.6 10.6 (7.1) 2.9 (6.7) Global The US Equity market ended higher yesterday, on the back of encouraging earnings reports from domestic companies and upbeat US housing data. The tech heavy Nasdaq rose by 2.1% outperforming its peer indices on the back of gains in blue chip Technology stocks. The Stoxx Europe 600 advanced by 0.8%, amid easing geopolitical tensions in Syria, with investors remaining more focused on the upcoming earnings season. The UK benchmark index rose by 0.4%, as the GBP erased its earlier gains. In Asia, the Chinese benchmark ended 1.4% lower, as fears of rising interest rates in the nation weighed on the Property stocks. However, the release of better than expected Chinese GDP data trimmed some losses in the benchmark index. GCC Most GCC equity markets ended higher yesterday. The Saudi Arabia index continued its upward trajectory by gaining 0.6%, supported by major gains in Petrochemical and Banking sector stocks. SABIC rose 2.3%, before going ex-dividend in today’s session. In Dubai, courier firm Aramex fell 3.3%, as the stock traded ex-dividend. The Abu Dhabi index rose by 0.5%. Aldar Properties edged 0.9% higher, as the company announced a USD 2.7bn plan to enhance its Alghadeer project. Qatar The QE index continued its upward trajectory, ending marginally higher, supported by gains in Real Estate and Insurance sector stocks. Domestic investors turned bearish during yesterday’s trading session. Trade turnover was higher amidst lower volumes, where the Industrials, Banking and Transport sectors together accounted for more than 62% of the total volume. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 43 exchanged hands of which, 14 declined, 27 advanced and 2 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.1 1.3 4.9 57.9 DSM 20 13.0 1.3 4.9 37.8 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.9 1.8 3.2 1,342.8 UAE (ADX) 12.1 1.3 5.0 24.9 UAE (DFM) 11.0 1.1 5.8 36.4 Kuwait (KSE) 15.1 1.1 5.7 74.0 Oman (MSM) 11.9 1.0 5.0 7.6 Bahrain (BAX) 8.8 0.8 6.3 13.6 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Al Ahli Bank Qatar German Co Ezdan Holding Group Commercial Bank Top Losers Zad Holding Co Dlala Holding Aamal Co Qatar Islamic Insurance Industries Qatar Close Price 11.3 32.0 5.6 10.7 33.9 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 4.9 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.1 (14.7) (13.9) (12.7) (11.5) 17.3 (43.5) (2.7) (40.4) (30.6) 10.1 44.8 68.7 66.1 198.7 75.8 19.7 10.4 NA 16.5 20.2 73.9 11.3 11.2 49.0 110.5 (3.2) (0.3) (0.2) (1.0) (1.5) (4.2) (2.8) (2.1) (2.0) (1.3) 0.4 (23.4) 29.3 (10.9) 13.9 (5.8) (49.5) (19.3) (21.3) (0.4) 39.5 220.5 716.4 0.1 263.9 8.8 17.6 14.1 11.8 20.2 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 9,500 20.0 8,958.0 9,000 8,500 10.0 8,000 7,500 21/Jan 0.0 4/Feb 18/Feb 4/Mar Index Volume (mn) 18/Mar 1/Apr 15/Apr Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 3,014.1 5,569.4 3,050.2 3,104.5 1,867.1 1,105.5 1,717.5 1D Change (%) 0.4 0.2 (0.7) 1.1 1.6 (0.0) 0.6 Buy (%) 30.7 26.8 57.5 8.8 33.7 42.5 Sell (%) 34.8 32.9 67.7 7.9 24.4 32.3 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 18 , 2018 GLOBAL NEWS  International Monetary Fund has kept its global growth forecast for 2018 and 2019 unchanged at 3.9%, but has warned that rising USChina trade restrictions might threaten to harm the steady growth rate. (Source: Reuters)  The US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated that China and Russia have used their reserves to devalue their currency in the past and the US President has asked to discontinue doing so in the coming period. (Source: CNBC)  US housing starts increased by 10.9% YoY to 1.3mn units in March-18 while the increase was 1.9% MoM. Building permits increased 2.5% MoM to 1.3mn units for similar period. (Source: US Census Bureau)  US industrial production rose 0.5% MoM in March-18, led by a 0.6% MoM increase in production in final products and a similar increase in production of materials. (Source: Federal Reserve System)  Chicago Fed President Charles Evans stated that it could take a year for the US inflation to remain sustainably above the 2.0% mark. He further stated that even if the inflation rate breaches above the 2.0% mark it would not pose a major threat. (Source: Reuters)  Canada’s manufacturing sales increased by 1.9% MoM to CAD 55.8bn in February-18 due to higher sales in the transportation equipment sector. (Source: Canadian statistics)  UK’s employment increased by 1.3% YoY to 32.3mn in the three months ending February-18. The unemployment rate, declined to 4.2% during the same period as compared to 4.7% during three months ending November-17. (Source: ONS)     Abu Dhabi and Dubai are expected to witness a sustained growth of 3.0% over the next several years if oil prices remain stable, according to Fisch Asset Management. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi based Bloom Properties has announed that construction works at its Park View and Soho Square developments at Saadiyat in Abu Dhabi is well on track to be completed by Q4-18. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi retail sector’s demand has become weaker due to lower spending by consumer as a result of rising cost of living and impacts of the VAT introduction at the start of 2018. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia will need to invest around USD 21.0bn to increase electricity capacity to 92GW while UAE needs to invest at least USD 33.0bn to meet its expected additional 16GW capacity requirement according to Apicorp report. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Germany’s financial service provider Allianz Group acquired an additional 18.5% stake in Saudi Arabia based Allianz Saudi Fransi Cooperative Insurance Company for SAR 22.0 (USD 5.8) per share taking the total holdings to 51.0%. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain will open its trade promotion offices in Ha Noi and HCM City to facilitate trade with Vietnam and other countries in the ASEAN bloc. (Source: Vietnamnews)  Kuwait petroleum corporation has announced that the country plans to invest a KWD 34.0bn (USD 113.0bn) for improving oil exploration and production activity within and outside the country in the next five years. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait based Jazeera Airways has launched direct flights to Madinah to cater to the travellers from Kuwait as well as India. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS UK’s wage growth increased to 2.8% in the three months ending February-18 as compared to 2.5% in three months ending November17. (Source: ONS)  China is expected to do away with foreign ownership caps on companies making fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in 2018, commercial vehicles in 2020 and the car market as a whole by 2022 according to China’s state planner. (Source: Reuters) Qatar’s e-commerce market is expected to grow from QAR 4.7bn (USD 1.3bn) in 2017 to QAR 12.0bn (USD 3.2bn) by 2022 as more companies accept digital technology, according to the Minister of Transport and Communications. (Source: Gulf times)  China’s central bank has announced to cut the reserve requirement which is currently at 17.0% for large institutions and 15.0% for smaller banks by 100 bps with an aim of freeing up funding for small firms. Commercial Bank of Qatar’s net profit grew 345.1% YoY to QAR 405.0mn in Q1-18, due to bank’s strong franchise and balance sheet as well as prudent management of liquidity. (Source: Gulf times)  Qatar Airways has entered into a new agreement with Air Italy which will provide codeshares on Air Italy’s routes between Milan-Malpensa Airport and six domestic cities across Italy. (Source: Gulf times)  Doha Bank has introduced investment opportunities to its nonresident Indian customers through a portfolio scheme, India Wealth Creator, which would invest entirely in top performing mutual funds. (Source: Reuters)  Turkey’s Culture and Tourism Minister announced that China is expected to become its important tourism partner with the number of Chinese tourists visiting Turkey expected to double to 500,000 in 2018. (Source: AA) GCC NEWS  KPMG in Qatar has signed a memorandum of understanding with AFG College with the University of Aberdeen to provide students with key insight into the professional environment through work experience and guest lectures. (Source: Gulf times)  Qatar Development Bank has agreed to extend a QAR 70.0mn facility to Shail Shipping and Maritime Services Company to be used to expand its fleet of ships. (Source: Gulf times)  Qatar National Bank shareholders have approved to increase the nonQatari ownership in the company's capital to 49.0% from existing 25.0% along with increasing single ownership limit from 2.0% to 5.0%. Dubai based e-commerce platform Mumzworld has announed flexible working hours, the opportunity to work from home as well as specialised training for mothers looking to return to the workplace. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai based Emirates NBD expanded its operations in Saudi Arabia by inaugurated its first branch in Jeddah with plans to open two more branches in Khobar and Riyadh. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai based oil and gas servives firm Stanford Marine Group with banks to restructure a USD 325.0mn Islamic loan. (Source: Gulf times)  Dubai based Noor Bank is in the process of marketing a USD 500.0mn five-year sukuk with an initial price guidance of around 175 bps over mid-swaps. (Source: Emirates Business)  (Source: Gulf times)  Abu Dhabi’s prime commerical office rents declined by 1.6% YoY in Q118 at AED 1,800 per sqm per annum on an average despite the introduction of VAT in the UAE according to a report by Knight Frank. (Source: Arabian Business) (Source: Gulf times)  Qatar Post and Qatar Development Bank are in discussions to improve the growth of entrepreneurship by incentivizing and helping local entrepreneurs and SMEs to accelerate growth of their businesses through e-commerce. (Source: Gulf times)  Qatar based provider of premium aluminum products, Qatar Technology for Aluminum & Steel Co has set up its new manufacturing facility in the New Industrial Area. (Source: Gulf times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 18 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2400 USD/QAR 3.6415 107.0000 EUR/QAR 4.5155 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4318 JPY/QAR 0.0340 USD/CHF 0.9663 GBP/QAR 5.2139 USD/CAD 1.2551 CHF/QAR 3.7685 AUD/USD 0.7766 CAD/QAR 2.9014 NZD/USD 0.7342 AUD/QAR 2.8280 USD/INR 65.1450 INR/QAR 0.0559 USD/TRY 4.0977 TRY/QAR 0.8887 USD/ZAR 11.9864 ZAR/QAR 0.3038 USD/BRL 3.4078 BRL/QAR 1.0686 FX Commentary The USD reversed its direction to end slightly higher against a basket of major currencies with the dollar index ending marginally higher at 89.497. The greenback was supported following the release of better than expected US housing data. The EUR declined, against the USD, weighed by dismal German and EU economic sentiment data. The safe haven CHF fell slightly in a cautious trade, in the absence of any new geopolitical tensions. The GBP declined against the USD, after data indicated that wages of the British workers were rising slower than inflation, despite continuous improvement in the unemployment data. The CAD strengthened against the USD, as strength in oil prices supported the currency. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.70 1.74 1.89 2.36 2.74 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 2.27 2.33 2.46 2.66 3.03 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.91 2.05 2.33 2.73 2.0% EIBOR 1.26 1.72 2.04 2.44 2.89 BMIBOR 1.63 1.90 2.43 2.78 3.28 NA NA 1.75 2.00 2.44 KIBOR 3.27% 2.40% 3.90% 4.15% 4.35% 2.69% 2.79% 2.83% 3.02% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 4.92% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 27.3 (1.0) Turkey 207.2 UK 17.9 (9.2) Brazil 169.8 (7.1) Germany 11.4 (2.3) Egypt 277.4 (64.4) 2.69% 2.87% 2.84% 2.82% 2.0% 1.48% 2.13% 1.96% 1.81% 2.90% 2.41% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs France Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 31.0 18.9 (4.3) Abu Dhabi 64.6 2.7 Italy 100.7 (40.1) Bahrain 288.7 43.4 Greece 348.5 (175.6) Dubai 112.6 (15.5) Russia 143.5 11.7 Qatar 88.3 (13.0) Japan 25.1 (12.0) Saudi Arabia 89.0 3.6 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 11:30 UK CPI MoM Mar 0.30% 0.40% 11:30 UK CPI YoY Mar 2.70% 2.70% 11:30 UK CPI Core YoY Mar 2.50% 2.40% 11:30 UK PPI Output NSA MoM 12:00 Eurozone CPI YoY 12:00 Eurozone CPI MoM 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 16:00 Russia 16:00 Russia 17:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision Mar 0.10% 0.00% Mar F 1.40% 1.40% Mar 1.00% 0.20% Apr-13th - (1.90%) Retail Sales Real YoY Mar 2.10% 1.80% Unemployment Rate Mar 5.00% 5.00% Apr-18th 1.25% 1.25% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Commercial Bank Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 1,745.0 13.4 75.9 404.7 343.6 17.4 NA NA NA 253.2 7.1 91.7 127.4 7.7 (2.2) 20.5 14.4 (53.3) NA NA NA 43.5 0.2 (42.6) Qatar International Islamic Medicare Group Arriyadh Development Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 18 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 12th April 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.1 3.0 0.0 11.7 3.6 6.8 5.6 4.8 0.0 4.1 7.7 4.2 6.9 4.7 8.0 6.0 6.2 4.0 6.6 0.0 0.0 7.1 8.1 6.5 5.8 0.0 4.5 4.4 4.3 3.9 2.3 7.9 8.3 4.3 0.0 6.2 3.6 4.7 7.1 4.1 7.4 4.7 0.0 8.9 5.8 4.2 0.0 3.3 4.1 6.8 6.6 6.4 4.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.6 2.0 0.5 0.8 1.6 1.2 2.0 0.8 1.5 0.8 1.9 2.0 1.2 1.7 1.2 0.4 3.2 0.7 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.5 2.0 1.4 2.4 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.7 0.5 0.6 1.5 0.7 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.6 4.6 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 10.0 22.4 19.6 7.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.3 13.2 166.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 9.4 10.1 24.3 10.7 4.5 26.4 14.2 20.1 12.5 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 5.3 11.4 13.1 45.9 11.3 20.7 18.9 13.4 16.3 9.7 10.8 17.7 17.7 14.3 27.4 13.2 11.9 20.3 7.6 16.6 29.7 8.2 11.6 13.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.2 11.2 9.6 12.9 10.8 12.8 EPS (QR) 3.0 1.5 0.6 3.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 5.5 14.2 0.3 5.8 11.1 2.5 9.7 1.2 9.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 6.0 15.2 5.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 5.5 0.9 14.7 2.0 3.9 5.0 2.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 3.5 4.1 1.7 4.4 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.2 6.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.7 1.5 4.1 2.1 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 25.2 42.1 48.6 34.9 24.0 17.5 17.6 20.1 7.7 64.7 45.0 73.4 8.8 40.1 64.5 35.6 69.0 21.1 71.1 4.7 12.9 19.0 116.2 44.7 12.7 19.8 10.5 56.6 11.6 81.7 21.4 34.4 48.0 25.0 19.3 20.8 25.1 70.8 23.4 32.4 48.6 11.4 12.8 3.0 14.7 72.2 5.3 23.7 27.9 15.7 118.3 32.8 27.6 Stock Price (QR) 30.3 33.3 11.5 25.8 27.6 11.1 35.8 10.4 6.2 104.0 51.8 143.0 7.2 50.0 67.1 137.8 25.0 120.7 5.7 5.6 59.9 80.0 10.4 21.0 5.6 113.5 16.4 197.0 33.2 38.0 54.0 10.2 12.1 36.3 46.5 49.0 33.6 10.6 7.2 14.1 83.0 9.0 41.0 14.7 52.9 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4