Pakistan Daily Economy Update - 15 January

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1. Jan . 14 -15, 2018 KCCI - eBulletin Tax issues of nine entities: FBR, SAT China to set up joint working group In a meeting, FBR and State Administration of Taxation (SAT) China have decided to establish a Joint Tax Working Group for resolving tax issues of nine Chinese enterprises operating in Pakistan and putting in place a mechanism for dispute resolution under CPEC. The chairman FBR assured the participants that FBR will take all necessary steps to facilitate the enterprises and address their tax issues in accordance with the tax laws. BR – Sun. Removal of Regulatory Duty: Afghanistan exerting pressure on Pakistan through Europe Afghanistan is reportedly attempting to exert pressure on Pakistan through Europe for the removal of Regulatory Duty (RD) on different items which, it argues, is hurting Afghan exports. British High Commissioner (HC) to Afghanistan along with British HC to Pakistan held a meeting with the Commerce & Textile Ministry and raised the RD issue imposed by Pakistan on Afghan products. EU Ambassador to Afghanistan is also expected to meet Pakistan’s Commerce Minister next week and is expected to discuss the same issue. BR – Sun. Karachi Circular Railway faces derailment again Karachi Circular Railway (KCR) has hit snags yet again. It was conveyed recently by the federal govt. that the Chinese funding of $ 2Bn for the project is not possible in the immediate future. Sindh has been advised to seek other options of funding on its own. The provincial government has also been asked to initiate a summary of sovereign guarantee for investors of the KCR in the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC). Dawn-Mon. Due to delay, Centre plans to take over development of economic zones The federal government has decided, in principle, to take the task of constructing CPEC’s Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in its own hands as slow progress on the part of provinces is frustrating Chinese authorities. In addition, the government is also facing financial challenges that may further delay some critical infrastructure projects of CPEC including the $ 8.2Bn Main Line-I of the Pakistan Railways. China wants to downgrade ML-I from the earlier status of ‘strategic project’, which will lead to a change in terms of loans. Tribune-Sun. Govt. aims to sell PIA before election Privatisation minister Daniyal Aziz has said that govt. will try to privatize its national airline PIA before general elections due this year, as the govt. seeks to restart sales of state-run businesses. The new plan would focus on splitting up the carrier, with the core airline business to be separated from vast peripheral operations such as catering, hotels and maintenance. The core airline would then be sold. The Minister would take the proposals to the cabinet committee on privatisation to be chaired by PM Abbasi. BR – Mon. Miftah promises tax amnesty scheme Govt. is expected to announce a tax amnesty scheme to bring investment and money from abroad. Under the proposed scheme, the government will offer tax relief to people who bring back foreign exchange and declare their properties in other countries, said Advisor to PM Dr. Miftah Ismail in a meeting with builders. Dawn-Sun. RLNG-III pipeline project financing: PD asked to examine possibility of PPP ECC of the Cabinet has directed the Petroleum Division to examine the possibility of Public-Private Partnership for financing of 1.2Bn Cubic Feet Day (BCFD) PKR 175Bn RLNG-III pipeline project to be laid from Karachi to Lahore. The committee, presided over by PM Abbasi who is also Federal Minister for Energy, gave these instructions after SSGCL and SNGPL expressed "ifs and buts" in arranging the finance. The Nation – Mon. TCP links sugar payments to clearance of growers’ dues Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has linked sugar procurement payments to clearance of growers' dues by the sugar mills. TCP has recently issued a tender for purchase of 0.3Mn metric tons of sugar which will be opened on Jan. 25, \ 2017. As per payment schedule, 40% or first installment of payment of total value of procured commodity from the sugar mills will be made on submission of required documents including commercial invoice and surveyor certificate. BR – Mon. Oil on the boil is bad news for govt. Last week, global oil prices rallied to more than a three-year high of $ 70/ barrel, edging up faster than expected. Oil has gained almost 5% since the start of 2018, and is forecast to move up further. In the aftermath of this rally, Pakistan’s energy import bill has grown 30% year-on-year to $ 5.2Bn during 5MFY18. The current-account deficit almost doubled to $ 6.43Bn during the period, indicating it would go far higher than the full-year target of $ 9Bn. Dawn-Mon. Preferential trade deal with Saudi Arabia Pakistan has evolved a comprehensive package in line with Saudi Vision-2030 to promote bilateral trade and investment between the two countries. The package envisages measures to ease procedures for business visa, remove non-tariff barriers and initiate talks on a PTA. Over the past few years, Pakistan’s bilateral trade with Saudi Arabia has posted a consistent decline, dropping by a half to $ 2.5Bn in FY17 from $ 5.08Bn in FY14. One reason is fall in the value of petroleum products, which constitute 50% of total imports. Pakistan’s exports to Saudi Arabia is on the wane mainly due to a drop in proceeds of rice, fruits, vegetable preparations, apparel and clothing and made-up articles of textile material. Dawn-Mon. Exports to EU grow almost 6% Pakistan’s exports to the 28-member European Union (EU) posted a growth of nearly 6% in 9MCY2017 on year-on-year basis. Total export proceeds to these countries amounted to € 5.07Bn against €4.79Bn a year ago. Dawn-Sun. Fishponds uproot crops on agriculture lands Small-scale growers are establishing fish farms on productive agricultural lands instead of continuing with cultivating cash and food crops. This shift in priorities is due to multiple reasons, including water scarcity, unstable prices, and constantly increasing input costs. Growers lament that they are left with no other option but to change their profession from tending of crops to fish farming. The News-Sun. Economic Indicators List of Indicators Date / Period Unit Value Change Daily 12-Jan 110.50 112.10 0.18% 0.04% Crude (MA'18) 12-Jan 12-Jan 12-Jan 12-Jan PKR PKR Pts. $ Mn $/bbl 42,934 7.45 64.33 -1.06% NM** 1.45% Gold (FE'18) Gold (10g) Local 12-Jan 12-Jan $/oz PKR 1,339.2 49,371 1.55% 0.61% Silver (FE'18) Cotton(KHI)-40 kg 12-Jan 12-Jan $/oz PKR 17.22 8,145 1.49% 0.00% Kibor-6M 12-Jan % 6.20% $ Bn 20.02 -0.01% WoW -0.66% Remittances 5-Jan FY18 Jul-Dec 17 $ Bn 9.74 YoY 2.51% Exports* Imports* Jul-Dec 17 Jul-Dec 17 $ Bn $ Bn 11.01 28.97 11.27% 19.11% Jul-Dec 17 Trade Balance* $ Bn -17.96 Jul-Nov 17 Current Account $ Mn -6,430 Foreign Direct Inv. $ Bn 1.15 Jul-Nov 17 Jul-Oct 17 LSM Growth* % 9.64 % 3.75 Jul-Dec 17 Avg. CPI Discount Rate % 5.75 Sep-17 WoW= Sources: KCCI Research, PMEXweek , NCCPL, KSE, SBP, PBS* ** Not Meaningful on week; -24.48% -90.74% 57.12% USD-Interbank USD-Open MKT KSE-100 index FIPI Forex Reserves Major Currencies GBP, 14-Jan-18, 151.9 155 145 135 EUR, 14-Jan-18, 134.9 125 115 105 95 Jan-17 USD, 14-Jan-18, 110.6 USD Apr-17 GBP EUR Jul-17 Oct-17 Source: KCCI Research ; Oanda.com Quote of the Day "The resilience of the environment, the resilience of the economy, depends on diversity." Kevin Czinger Chart of the Day Pakistan's Trade Snapshot (1HFY12-1HFY18) 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 -5.00 -10.00 -15.00 -20.00 1HFY12 1HFY13 1HFY14 1HFY15 1HFY16 1HFY17 1HFY18 Exports ($ Bn) Imports ($ Bn) Trade Deficit ($ Bn) Source: KCCI Research, SBP Disclaimer This report has been prepared by KCCI Research & Development Cell. The information contained herein have been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified. icon represents the sole viewpoint of the KCCI R&D Cell, and is stated to enrich the readers' understanding of the news item. The R&D Dept. bears no responsibility for its correctness or accuracy. Contact: res@kcci.com.pk