Oman: MSM Virtual Portfolio Report September 2017

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1. Report Date : 10/09/2017 Report No.: 032 U Capital MSM Virtual Portfolio (MVP) Contents: ‐ Analysis of selected stocks. ‐ Support and resistance levels. - Stocks target price. - Stop loss levels for each stock. - Risk and return analysis. - Historical performance results Basheer Rousan U Capital Brokerage Department Ubhar Capital SAOC (U Capital) PO Box 1137, PC 111, Sultanate of Oman. Tel: +96824949014 Fax: +96824949099 Email: Brokerage@u-capital.net Website: www.u-capital.net
2. U Capital Brokerage U Capital MSM Technical Portfolio Support and resistance levels - Current Picks Stock Name Purchase MSM Target 1 Price Status Target 2 Status Return Return Turnover T1 T2 Ratio Stop Loss Recommendation Risk Date BANK DHOFAR 0 .213 0.218 0.220 2.35% 3.29% 0.12 0.212 -0.5% 10-Sep-17 BANK NIZWA 0.093 0.095 0.096 2.15% 3.23% 0.11 0.092 -1.1% 10-Sep-17 NATIONAL BANK OF OMAN 0.215 0.220 0.225 2.33% 4.65% 0.15 0.213 -0.9% 10-Sep-17 OMAN INVESTMENT & FINANCE 0.165 0.169 0.171 2.42% 3.64% 0.16 0.164 -0.6% 10-Sep-17 AL ANWAR CERAMIC 0.124 0.127 0.128 2.42% 3.23% 0.09 0.123 -0.8% 10-Sep-17 AL ANWAR HOLDING 0.151 0.156 0.157 3.31% 3.97% 0.11 0.150 -0.7% 10-Sep-17 Last week actual performance for 6 companies Stock Name Closing Purchase Target 1 Price Price MSM Status Target 2 Status Return Return Turnover T1 T2 Ratio Stop Loss Recommendation Risk Date ALMADINA INVESTMENT 0.064 0.064 0.066 0.067 3.13% 4.69% 0.09 0.063 -1.6% 13-Aug-17 AL IZZ ISLAMIC BANK 0.071 0.074 0.076 0.077 2.70% 4.05% 0.11 0.073 -1.4% 13-Aug-17 BANK MUSCAT 0.390 0.374 0.382 0.384 2.14% 2.67% 0.14 0.372 -0.5% 13-Aug-17 UNITED FINANCE 0.120 0.124 0.127 0.128 2.42% 3.23% 0.08 0.123 -0.8% 13-Aug-17 OMAN FISHERIES 0.117 0.108 0.111 0.112 2.78% 3.70% 0.09 0.107 -0.9% 13-Aug-17 BANK NIZWA 0.093 0.093 0.095 0.096 2.15% 3.23% 0.11 0.092 -1.1% 13-Aug-17 (Week 31 - 2017) ----- Gain/Loss = +3.23% Achi eved Nea r To Los s es Weekly performance for the past 4 weeks No. of the Week Report No. % Gain/Loss for MVP U Capital Oman 20 Index MSM30 Index MSCI Oman Index Week 31 - 2017 031 3.23% -0.39% -0.11% -0.08% Week 30 - 2017 030 0.48% -2.00% -1.31% -1.03% Week 29 - 2017 029 0.04% 0.46% 0.20% 0.05% Week 28 - 2017 028 0.47% 1.67% 0.96% 1.50% % Gain/Loss for MVP U Capital Oman 20 Index MSM30 Index MSCI Oman Index Historical performance - Monthly No. of the Month Report No. Month 01 - 2017 01-04 5.11% -1.14% -0.55% Month 02 - 2017 05-08 2.70% 1.77% 1.71% 0.61% Month 03 - 2017 09-12 4.31% -4.32% -3.71% -8.00% Month 04 - 2017 13-16 4.95% -0.10% -2.85% -2.70% Month 05 - 2017 17-20 3.84% -1.57% -1.08% -0.90% Month 06 - 2017 21-24 1.02% -4.14% -3.10% -2.89% Month 07 - 2017 25-28 5.39% -0.88% -1.46% -0.25% Month 08 - 2017 29-32 -0.85% Month 09 - 2017 Month 10 - 2017 Month 11 - 2017 Month 12 - 2017 Historical performance - Yearly Year % Gain/Loss for MVP U Capital Oman 20 Index MSM30 Index MSCI Oman Index 2015 62.96% -11.61% -16.87% -12.01% 2016 60.00% 4.01% 7.50% 1.03% Note: Support & Resistance for the week expectations Stop Loss: the clients should close / decrease his positions if it exceed this level Risk: difference between price and support 1 Return T1: difference between Purchasing price and Target 1 Return T2: difference between Purchasing price and Target 2 Prices are in Omani Riyals, Gross returns excluding transaction cost Purchase Price is the last closing prices, if the stock didn’t reach our targets we close on Thursday the position depending on the closing price/stop loss whichever is higher.
3. U Capital Brokerage BANK DHOFAR : In line with U Capital technical analysis, the stock now changed the trend from down to up channel. The stock crossed up the MA10, so we expect that the next Short-Term level should be at OMR 0.220 In MACD both lines MA are crossed up zero line. Market Cap. OMR 434.9mn P/E 10.8 52Wk High OMR 0.251 P/B 1.06 52Wk Low OMR 0.191 Div. Yield 5.9% BANK NIZWA: In line with U Capital technical analysis, last week the stock changed its direction to the upward trend. There is accumulative at this level since the beginning of last week. So we expect the next target level to be at OMR 0.096. Market Cap. OMR 139.5mn P/E 21.4 52Wk High OMR 0.10 P/B 1.09 52Wk Low OMR 0.076 Div. Yield -% NATIONAL BANK OF OMAN: In line with U Capital technical analysis, the stock now is trying to cross up the upward trend line, so at this level we suggest a good entry point. We see that the target level in the short term will be at OMR 0.225. Market Cap. OMR 323.9mn P/E 7.49 52Wk High OMR 0.241 P/B 0.80 52Wk Low OMR 0.207 Div. Yield 7.3% OMAN INVESTMENT & FINANCE: In line with U Capital technical analysis, the stock now is trying to cross up the upward trend line, so at this level we suggest a good entry point. We see that the target level in the short term will be at OMR 0.171. Market Cap. OMR 33.0mn P/E 7.44 52Wk High OMR 0.237 P/B 0.93 52Wk Low OMR 0.153 Div. Yield 9.7% AL ANWAR CERAMIC: Currently the RSI, MFI and MACD are attractive to buy. The stock already crossed up EMA14 and MA5. We expect this week the trend will cross the strong resistance level of OMR 0.124 in upside momentum. Therefore, we expect the first target to be after crossing this level at OMR 0.128. Market Cap. OMR 36.7mn P/E - 52Wk High OMR 0.208 P/B 0.99 52Wk Low OMR .118 Div. Yield 6.5% AL ANWAR HOLDING: In line with U Capital technical analysis, the RSI is below (70 points) it’s at 40.60 point, and the MACD is positive. Current price is a good entry point to accumulate. So we expect the next target level should be at OMR 0.157 as a Mid-Term. Market Cap. OMR 31.4mn P/E 12.47 52Wk High OMR 0.191 P/B 0.84 52Wk Low OMR 0.139 Div. Yield 5.57% . Main Technical Indicators: MACD: A trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the "signal line", is then plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy and sell signals. RSI: A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset, the RSI ranges from 0 to 100. An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued. The RSI calculation will depend on 14 days for this report. MFI: A momentum indicator that is used to determine the conviction in a current trend by analyzing the price and volume of a given security. The MFI is used as a measure of the strength of money going in and out of a security and can be used to predict a trend reversal. The MFI is range-bound between 0 and 100 and is interpreted in a similar fashion as the RSI. The MFI calculation will depend on 14 days for this report. Bollinger Bands (BB): A band plotted two standard deviations up way from a simple moving average, standard deviation is a measure of volatility, and Bollinger bands adjust themselves to the market conditions. When the markets become more volatile, the bands widen (move further away from the average), and during less volatile periods, the bands contract (move closer to the average). The tightening of the bands is often used by technical traders as an early indication that the volatility is about to increase sharply. The BB calculation will depend on 21-day simple moving average. Moving Average: An indicator frequently used in technical analysis showing the average value of a security's price over a set period. Moving averages are generally used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. For this report, we will use 5, 11, 21 and 50 days to calculate MA. C.P.: Current Price, MA: Moving Average. L.P.: Last Price. HP: High Price For more information about the content of this report, please contact Mr. Basheer Al Rousan at the following number: +968 24949014 - Source: Bloomberg Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by brokerage department in Ubhar Capital SAOC (U Capital), and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is to be used or considered as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained therein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, we make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such, and the U Capital accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any direct or indirect consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. All opinions and estimates included in this document constitute U Capital Brokerage department judgment as of the date of production of this report, and are subject to change without notice. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose.