Monthly Monitor February 2017

Transcription

1. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 13 March 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 Executive Summary  Population growth slowed to 5.0% year on year in February  Inflation decelerated to 1.2% year on year in January  The trade surplus stayed at USD3.0bn in January  Bank deposit growth accelerated to 14.8% in January Inflation decelerated to 1.2% year on year in January New Data CPI Inflation   Consumer price index (CPI) inflation fell further to 1.2% in January, from 1.8% the previous month as housing inflation, the biggest component of the CPI basket with close to 22% weighting, continued to fall Food and beverages inflation has accelerated, although it is still in deflation (-1.9%) (% change, year on year) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Sources: Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDPS), Haver Analytics and QNB Economics GCC stock indices mostly fell in February New Data Stock market indices   February saw slightly weak performance across the GCC, with Saudi Arabia declining the most and Bahrain outperforming with a 4.1% increase The Saudi stock market declined on disappointing fourth quarter corporate earnings results as well as continued profit taking following the sustained multi-month rally that took place on the back of the government’s bond issuance in October (Index, rebased, 31 Dec 2016 = 100) Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Dubai Abu Dhabi 125 115 105 95 85 75 1-Jan 16-Jan 31-Jan 15-Feb Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics QNB Economics Weekly Commentary  Fed more likely to use rates than balance sheet to tighten policy  Oil after OPEC — range-bound at USD55-60  China chooses yuan stability over growth to stem outflows  India’s fiscal consolidation to have minimal impact on growth  Trump and Trade  IMF tinkers with forecasts but is still too optimistic Jordan Economic Insight 2016 QNB Economics recently published the Jordan Economic Insight 2016, providing an overview of the Qatari economy, with in-depth analysis and forecasts. The report is available on the QNB website along with other published Economic Insight Reports. Page 1 of 12
2. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 13 March 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 Real GDP accelerated by 3.7% Q3 2016 owing to a recovery in the hydrocarbon sector Real GDP growth by sector   Real GDP growth accelerated to 3.7% year on year in Q3 2016 from 1.8% in Q2 The hydrocarbon sector recovered from a contraction of 1.2% Q2 2016 to grow by 2.7% year-on-year in Q3 2016 (% change, year on year) Hydrocarbon Growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector slowed to 4.7% in Q3 2016 from 5.2% in Q2 2016, owing mainly to a contraction in the manufacturing sector Total 12% 10% 8% 5.8% 4.8% 6%  Non-Hydrocarbon 4% 3.6% 3.9% 1.9% 3.7% 1.4% 1.8% 2% 0% -2% -4% Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Sources: MDPS , Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Quarterly GDP increased on higher net exports GDP by expenditure  Qatar’s quarterly GDP expanded to USD38.6bn in Q3 2016 from USD37.0bn in Q2, driven by higher investment and net exports  Investment as a share of GDP has stayed largely flat over consecutive quarters, while the shares of both government and private consumption fell as a percentage of GDP, to 22.9% and 25.2%, respectively (% change, year on year) 37.0 USD37.0bn USD38.6bn 38.6 47.3% 47.2% 45.0% 44.8% 23.9% 26.3% 22.9% 25.2% -42.5% -40.0% Exports Investment Government Consumption Private Consumption Imports Q2 16 Q3 16 Sources: MDPS , Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Qatar oil production picked up marginally in January     Qatar’s oil production picked up slightly to 615k barrels per day (b/d) in January, from 611k b/d in December Brent crude oil prices fell slightly by 2.0% month on month in January, reaching USD55.7/b The fall in Brent likely reflects some investor concern on rising US oil production We forecast Brent crude to average USD55/b in 2017 New Data Oil prices and production (USD/b, left axis; Oil production (k b/d), right axis) 70 800 600 50 400 200 30 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Oil Production (right axis) Jul 2016 0 Jan 2017 Brent Oil Price (left axis) Sources: Intercontinental Exchange, Energy Intelligence Agency (EIA), Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Page 2 of 12
3. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 13 March 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 Qatar’s population growth slowed to 5.0% year on year in February   Qatar’s population stood at 2.7m in February, with growth slowing to 5.0% from 6.3% the previous month New Data Population (m, % year on year) The male and female populations rose by 5.1% and 4.7% year on year, respectively — women make up close to 25% of the population 12 3.0 10 2.5 8 2.0 6 1.5 4 1.0 2 0.5 0 Feb 2015 Oct 2015 Male (right axis) Growth Rate (left axis) 0.0 Jun 2016 Feb 2017 Female (right axis) Sources: MDPS, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Broad money contracted by 0.8% year on year in January New Data Broad money (M2)   Broad money supply (M2) contracted slightly by 0.8% year on year in January from a 4.4% year on year contraction in December (bn QAR , % year on year) This was helped by a smaller than usual contraction in foreign currency deposits which fell by 10.8% year on year in January versus 18.2% the previous month 15 600 10 500 400 5 300 0 200 -5 100 -10 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Total (right axis) Jul 2016 0 Jan 2017 Growth Rate (left axis) Sources: QCB, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Overnight interbank rates picked up to 1.40% in January New Data Interbank interest rate: overnight   Overnight interbank rates picked up to 1.40% in January from 1.21% in December; the 3month interbank rate eased for a second month to 1.64% from 2.00% while the 1-year interbank rate picked up to 2.15% from 2.10% The QCB hiked its policy lending and deposit rates in December, in line with the US Fed rate hike; it also reduced the repo rate to 2.25% from 4.50% and lowered the tenor of the instrument from 14 to 7 days (%) 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Sources: QCB, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Page 3 of 12
4. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 13 March 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 The real estate price index contracted by 4.5% year on year in December Real estate price index    After bottoming out in September 2016, the real estate price index (REPI) picked up steadily, rising by 4.6% in the three months to December However, on a year-to-year basis, the index has contracted by 4.5% in December The REPI reflects the prices of land, residential and commercial transactions (Index and % change year on year) QCB Real Estate Index (left axis) 350 Growth rate (right axis) 50 300 40 250 30 200 20 150 10 100 0 50 -10 0 Dec 2014 Jun 2015 Dec 2015 Jun 2016 -20 Dec 2016 Sources: QCB, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics The fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.6% of GDP in Q3 2016 Budget balance    The fiscal deficit narrowed sharply to QAR5.1bn (3.6% of GDP) in Q3 2016 from QAR15.2bn (11.3% of GDP) in Q2 Revenue declined to QAR31.4bn in Q3 from QAR33.2bn in Q2, while expenditure fell to QAR36.5bn from QAR48.3bn The 2017 budget announced by the government projects a reduction in the fiscal deficit to QAR28.4bn in 2017 from a deficit of QAR46.5bn in 2016 (bn QAR) Revenue Expenditure Budget Balance 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 Q3 14 Q1 15 Q3 15 Q1 16 Q3 16 Sources: QCB, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics The trade surplus stayed at USD3.0bn in January New Data Trade balance  Both exports and imports rose in January, keeping the trade balance steady at USD3.0bn for a second month (bn USD) Exports Imports Trade Balance 8 7   Exports grew 5.3% month on month, to USD5.6bn, while imports grew by 9.1% month on month 6 5 4 3 Japan was the largest export market, with a share of 21.8% of total exports, followed by South Korea at 17.3%; China and the US were the two largest countries of origin for imports 2 1 0 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Sources: MDPS, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Page 4 of 12
5. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 13 March 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 International reserves picked up to USD33.8bn in January International reserves and months of import cover (bn USD, left axis; Months of import cover, right axis)  International reserves picked up at the start of the year to USD33.8bn from USD31.6bn in International Reserves (left axis) December Months of Import Cover (right axis)  In terms of months of import cover, this recovered to 6.6 months from 6.1 months previously, well above the IMF recommended minimum of three months for a fixed-exchange rate regime New Data 50 10 40 8 30 6 20 4 10 2 0 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 0 Jan 2017 Sources: QCB, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics The balance of payments deficit narrowed to near balance in Q3 2016 Balance of payments (bn USD)  The balance of payments (BoP) deficit Current Account Balance (left axis) narrowed for the third consecutive quarter, Capital and Financial Account Balance (left axis) reaching a deficit of USD0.1bn in Q3 2016 from Change in International Reserves (right axis) 15 6.0 a deficit of USD0.3bn in Q2 2016  The improvement in the BoP was driven by a fall in the current account deficit to USD1.5bn from USD2.5bn; this compensated for weaker inflows into the capital account, which recorded a USD0.9bn surplus in Q3 compared to a surplus of USD3.0bn in Q2 10 4.0 5 2.0 0 0.0 -5 -2.0 -10 -4.0 -15 -6.0 Q3 14 Q1 15 Q3 15 Q1 16 Q3 16 Sources: Qatar Central Bank (QCB), Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Bank deposit growth accelerated to 14.8% in January New Data Bank deposits  Bank deposits grew 14.8% year on year in January from 11.8% growth in December (bn QAR and % change year on year) Deposits (left axis)    The share of non-resident deposits to total deposits continued to increase in January, rising to 27.1% from 25.2% the previous month Private sector deposits grew 2.8% year on year in January while public sector deposits contracted by -13.3% year on year Non-resident deposits grew 125.4% as the banking sector continued to source foreign funds 760 740 720 700 680 660 640 620 600 580 560 540 520 Jan 2015 Growth rate (right axis) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 0 Jan 2017 Sources: QCB, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Page 5 of 12
6. Monthly Monitor QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 13 March 2017 6 Bank assets stood at QAR1.3tn in January New Data Bank assets   Bank assets grew 12.8% year on year in January compared to 13.5% in December Domestic assets grew 10.3% year on year in January, from 11.1% in the previous month driven largely by growth in domestic credit (bn QAR and % change year on year) Assets (left axis) Growth rate (right axis) 1400 16 1200 14 12 1000 10 800 8 600 6 400 4 200 2 0 0 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Sources: QCB, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Bank credit grew by 12.1% year on year in January New Data Bank credit    Loan growth stayed high at 12.1% year on year in January, maintaining the previous month’s growth rate Loans to the public sector (35.2% of total domestic credit) drove the headline, with growth of 21.8% year on year in January Private sector loans grew by 7.1% year on year while foreign credit grew by 8.7% (bn QAR and % change year on year) 900 Loans (left axis) end-2015 L/D 115.7% Growth rate (right axis) end-2016 L/D 116.1% 25 20 700 15 10 500 5 300 Jan 2015 0 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 *L/D refers to the loans to deposits ratio Sources: QCB, Haver Analytics and QNB Economics Page 6 of 12
7. Monthly Monitor QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 13 March 2017 6 Main News  Qatar’s commitment to infrastructure upgrade and economic diversification has helped buffer the impact of the oil price fall, said HE the Minister of Energy and Industry, Dr Mohamed bin Saleh al-Sada. Despite the fall in oil prices from an average USD54 in 2015 to USD46 last year, Qatar’s real GDP grew by about 3%, alSada said in his keynote address at the ‘Energy and Economic Diversification Policies’ roundtable (Gulf-Times.com)  Contracting companies have topped the Ministry of Economy and Commerce’s (MEC) list of newly-registered firms, which appears in its recently-issued report on business and trade for January 2017. The report set the number of newly-registered companies at 2,228, with 1,615 main commercial registrations and 613 subregistrations. Contracting companies were a top these companies with 498 new commercial registrations, followed by building materials 266, restaurants and fast foods 222, and 142 registrations for other commercial activities (Gulf-Times.com)  Global credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has affirmed Qatar’s long term rating at ‘AA’ and short term at ‘A- 1+’ and expects its currency peg to be maintained with the US dollar. However, the outlook has been revised to “negative” from “stable” on the weakening external liquidity position owing to rapid growth of banks’ foreign liabilities and public sector debt, which pushed up Qatar’s external funding needs (Gulf-Times.com)  Global credit rating agency Capital Intelligence (CI) has affirmed Qatar’s long-term foreign currency and local currency ratings of ‘AA-’ and its short-term foreign and local currency ratings of ‘A1+’, while upgrading the outlook for ratings to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’. The outlook revision reflects the resilience of the Qatari economy to low hydrocarbon prices, as seen by the continuation of positive economic growth and maintenance of comfortable fiscal and external buffers, CI said, adding the revision also factored in its expectation of narrowing fiscal and external current account deficits in 2017-18 (Gulf-Times.com)  According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the Qatar Central Bank (QCB) may increase interest rates by a further 50-75 basis points in 2017 as the QCB moves in step with rate hikes in the US in context of the peg to the dollar” (Gulf-Times.com)  Qatar Petroleum (QP) has overtaken Rosneft and ExxonMobil in total output, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, as the company makes and sells more LNG than any other company (Peninsula Qatar) Page 7 of 12
8. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 13 March 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 National Accounts Nominal GDP (QAR bn) 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q3 2016 YoY% Total 680.1 723.4 750.7 599.3 140.5 -5.7% Oil & Gas 394.7 403.0 394.2 231.3 43.8 -22.1% Non-Oil 285.4 320.3 356.5 368.0 96.7 4.2% Agriculture and Fishing Industry Manufacturing Electricity, Gas and Water Construction 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.3 4.1% 104.9 116.1 129.5 119.3 30.4 -1.0% 71.6 73.8 76.1 58.1 13.0 -13.6% 2.4 3.0 3.3 3.5 1.1 6.2% 30.9 39.3 50.0 57.8 16.3 11.6% 193.7 219.3 246.6 270.4 72.3 6.8% Trade, Restaurants and Hotels 46.3 54.7 61.7 67.7 18.5 4.4% Transport and Communications 22.0 23.0 25.1 26.8 7.2 4.8% Finance and Real Estate 61.2 67.3 78.3 87.6 22.9 8.7% Government Services 47.7 55.3 61.0 65.7 17.9 7.9% Other Services 14.3 16.3 17.3 19.1 4.8 6.7% 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.5 0.9 7.8% -17.2 -19.0 -22.8 -24.5 -6.6 7.8% 3.3 3.2 2.3 1.8 0.4 -5.0% Services Household Services Imputed Bank Service Charges Import Duties *Includes: Trade, accommodation and recreation **Includes: Professional, scientific and technical activities Source: MDPS and Haver Analytics Note: Numbers in red indicate new data MDPS revised historical National Accounts data in August 2016, affecting historical data going back to 2011 Real GDP (% change, YoY) 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Total 4.7% 4.4% 4.0% 3.6% 1.8% 3.7% Oil & Gas 1.2% 0.1% -0.6% -0.5% -1.2% 2.7% Non-Oil 9.9% 10.4% 9.8% 8.2% 5.1% 4.7% Agriculture and Fishing 4.6% 5.9% 25.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.9% 11.3% 10.5% 10.7% 8.9% 3.2% 4.4% Manufacturing 11.5% 5.5% 4.2% 3.3% -4.4% -1.3% Electricity, Gas and Water 47.5% 11.9% 11.1% 7.0% 4.9% 3.7% 8.8% 21.2% 22.8% 17.8% 14.7% 12.4% 8.9% 11.5% 10.4% 8.2% 6.7% 5.2% 8.8% 14.8% 12.1% 8.2% 4.1% 3.1% Industry Construction Services Trade, Restaurants and Hotels Transport and Communications 3.6% 3.7% 9.3% 4.6% 6.7% 4.8% Finance and Real Estate 10.2% 10.9% 11.9% 10.4% 7.8% 6.6% Government Services 10.3% 13.9% 8.7% 6.7% 7.4% 5.9% 8.1% 6.7% 5.5% 8.7% 7.2% 5.2% Other Services Household Services Imputed Bank Service Charges Import Duties 10.3% 9.2% 8.9% 7.8% 3.4% 8.1% 22.0% 16.2% 8.7% 9.3% 7.1% 19.9% 0.0% -28.0% -23.2% -8.2% -7.4% Source: MDPS and Haver Analytics Page 8 of 12
9. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 13 March 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 Balance of Payments Balance of Payments (USD bn) 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current Account Balance 62.0 60.5 49.4 13.8 Q3 16 -1.5 102.2 101.9 95.6 48.8 7.0 Exports 133.0 133.3 126.7 77.3 14.6 Imports Trade Balance (Goods) -30.8 -31.5 -31.1 -28.5 -7.5 Service Balance -14.0 -16.3 -19.3 -15.8 -4.3 Income Balance -12.1 -10.4 -9.3 -3.6 -0.4 Transfer Balance -14.1 -14.7 -17.5 -15.7 -3.8 Capital & Financial Account Balance -44.4 -52.1 -49.2 -19.7 0.9 -6.1 -4.8 -5.5 -0.7 -0.1 -38.3 -47.4 -43.6 -18.9 1.0 Direct Investment (outwards) -1.8 -8.0 -6.7 -4.0 0.5 Direct Investment (into Qatar) 0.4 -0.8 1.0 1.1 0.3 Portfolio investment (net) 2.8 -18.3 -19.9 -16.5 0.8 Capital Account Financial Account Sources: QCB and Haver Analytics; Note: Not all Balance of Payment lines are shown in the table Top 5 Export Destinations (USD bn) 2012 2013 2014 2015 Japan 36.9 39.9 33.2 16.0 India 14.6 13.8 16.0 9.2 China 6.8 8.5 9.5 5.3 United Arab Emirates 5.9 5.1 5.4 4.3 Singapore 7.0 6.8 7.9 3.6 2012 2013 2014 2015 China 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.8 United States of America 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.6 United Arab Emirates 2.0 1.9 2.5 2.9 Germany 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.4 Japan 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 Top 5 Import Sources (USD bn) Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics, MDPS and Haver Analytics 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-17 MoM% YoY% Oil production ('000 bpd) 733.4 733.7 723.9 709.2 656.0 615.0 0.7% -3.5% Brent Crude (avg) 111.7 108.8 99.5 53.6 45.0 55.5 1.1% 73.9% Qatar average price 108.6 111.2 104.5 97.5 50.6 53.9 1.2% 86.9% Dukhan 109.7 111.8 101.8 98.5 51.7 54.6 2.3% 89.1% Marine 107.5 110.6 107.1 96.6 49.5 53.3 3.6% 110.7% Source: Bloomberg, Intercontinental Exchange, JODI and Haver Analytics Page 9 of 12
10. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 13 March 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 Budget, Population & Money Government Budget (% of GDP) 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Balance 13.8 19.3 12.3 1.2 -9.9 -11.3 -3.6% Revenue 37.0 47.6 45.7 42.7 22.0 24.6 22.4% Expenditure 23.3 28.3 33.4 41.5 31.9 35.9 26.0% Population (m people in Qatar) 2013 2014 2015 Feb-17 YoY% Total 2.00 2.22 2.44 2.67 5.0% Source: MDPS and Haver Analytics; Monthly data based on number of people in Qatar and annual data based on residency Money Supply (% change, YoY) 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-17 19.6% 10.6% 3.4% -4.6% -0.8% M1 16.5% 17.3% 2.1% 1.1% -7.2% Quasi-money 20.6% 8.6% 3.9% -6.4% 1.6% Interest rates (%, end period) 2013 2014 2015 2016 Feb-17 QCB deposit 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 QCB lending 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.75 4.75 Interbank overnight* 0.77 0.65 0.90 1.16 1.40 Demand deposit* 0.66 0.56 0.33 0.20 0.15 Overdraft* 6.20 5.50 5.61 4.97 5.07 Credit card* 8.36 8.86 9.37 10.66 10.51 Broad money (M2) * Data as of January 2017 Source: QCB and Haver Analytics Page 10 of 12
11. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 13 March 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 Banking Sector Snapshot Banking Sector Indicator (In QR mn) 2012 2013 2014 Dec-15 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Change MoM Change YTD Total Assets 820,512 915,911 1,011,702 1,120,739 1,178,575 1,183,070 1,169,431 1,194,233 1,192,320 1,202,214 1,271,766 1,261,940 -0.8% -0.8% Total Credit (Loans) 510,048 577,976 653,418 752,630 787,586 803,505 790,026 798,502 807,884 821,051 844,011 854,080 1.2% 1.2% Total Deposits 458,066 548,384 601,074 650,261 683,629 685,012 661,640 679,095 676,873 690,846 726,880 736,028 1.3% 1.3% 111% 105% 109% 116% 115% 117% 119% 118% 119% 119% 116% 116% 478,305 535,657 589,739 664,700 700,170 717,173 703,390 712,408 713,453 727,053 748,647 757,654 1.2% 1.2% 31,743 42,319 63,679 87,930 87,416 86,332 86,636 86,094 94,431 93,997 95,364 96,426 1.1% 1.1% 6.5% Loan to Deposit Ratio Credit Facilities (Geographic) Total Domestic Credit Total International Credit Domestic Credit Facilities - Public Sector Government Government Institutions Semi-Government Institutions 51,746 56,549 64,737 76,822 101,962 115,424 99,961 104,793 110,329 124,246 138,683 147,654 6.5% 139,585 152,516 140,427 140,148 138,819 139,367 139,418 140,375 141,817 140,110 139,386 139,807 0.3% 0.3% 27,222 30,679 28,400 21,312 21,996 21,927 21,886 21,853 12,948 12,879 15,806 13,289 -15.9% -15.9% 218,553 239,745 233,564 238,282 262,777 276,718 261,264 267,021 265,093 277,235 293,876 300,750 2.3% 2.3% 33,280 36,011 48,257 59,147 59,376 60,440 61,467 62,049 64,001 64,450 64,673 63,940 -1.1% -1.1% 9,339 11,592 12,253 17,207 16,080 15,695 15,792 16,236 16,166 16,283 18,113 16,103 -11.1% -11.1% Contractors 16,546 23,331 30,367 37,544 36,978 37,139 37,643 38,183 38,743 38,600 38,156 37,528 -1.6% -1.6% Real Estate 85,562 85,388 95,142 121,214 125,216 124,850 125,187 126,188 126,654 129,115 130,490 130,720 0.2% 0.2% Consumption & Others 78,587 87,020 106,363 123,599 123,003 121,657 122,799 123,605 124,504 126,358 129,882 133,487 2.8% 2.8% Services 36,438 52,570 63,792 67,707 76,741 80,675 79,238 79,127 78,292 75,012 73,457 75,126 2.3% 2.3% 259,752 295,912 356,175 426,418 437,394 440,456 442,126 445,387 448,360 449,818 454,771 456,903 0.5% 0.5% 417,337 514,804 552,955 563,629 548,871 546,925 524,152 532,600 527,935 530,940 543,656 536,838 -1.3% -1.3% 40,729 33,579 48,119 86,632 134,758 138,087 137,488 146,496 148,937 159,906 183,224 199,190 8.7% 8.7% Total Domestic Public Sector Credit Domestic Credit Facilities - Private Sector General Trade Industry Total Domestic Private Sector Credit Deposit Details (Geographic) Resident Deposits Non-resident Deposits Deposits - Public Sector (Domestic) Government Government Institutions Semi Government Institutions 44,445 68,294 59,252 53,278 67,951 66,274 46,400 50,568 50,288 53,617 64,324 53,238 -17.2% -17.2% 104,378 124,390 129,609 116,896 97,524 93,897 92,502 91,881 91,385 95,184 93,319 87,074 -6.7% -6.7% 31,906 37,447 39,275 38,931 34,063 34,336 35,229 37,289 36,184 29,035 28,277 28,930 2.3% 2.3% 180,729 230,131 228,136 209,106 199,538 194,507 174,131 179,738 177,857 177,837 185,920 169,242 -9.0% -9.0% Personal 116,257 145,841 162,251 148,439 161,756 161,573 160,203 160,483 160,023 159,236 161,083 165,035 2.5% 2.5% Companies & Institutions 120,350 138,833 162,567 206,084 187,578 190,846 189,818 192,378 190,056 193,868 196,653 202,562 3.0% 3.0% Total Private Sector Deposit 236,607 284,673 324,819 354,523 349,334 352,419 350,021 352,862 350,078 353,104 357,736 367,596 2.8% 2.8% Total Public Sector Deposit Deposits - Private Sector (Domestic) Source: QCB Page 11 of 12
12. QNB Economics economics @qnb.com 13 March 2017 Monthly Monitor 6 Price March 07 Com pany Nam e % Change WTD % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 155.50 4.71 5.00 143,626 11.8 2.7 2.0 Qatar Islamic Bank 101.00 (7.42) (2.79) 23,866 11.7 1.7 4.7 Commercial Bank of Qatar 31.40 (2.48) (3.38) 12,103 24.4 0.7 9.2 Doha Bank 38.70 1.31 10.89 9,999 12.0 1.1 7.8 Al Ahli Bank 37.00 3.35 (5.13) 7,060 11.2 1.7 4.1 Qatar International Islamic Bank 69.70 2.35 10.99 10,550 13.4 1.6 5.7 Masraf Al Rayan 41.10 (2.26) 9.31 30,825 14.9 2.4 4.3 Al Khalij Commercial Bank 15.50 (5.37) (8.82) 5,580 13.1 0.8 4.8 Qatar First Bank 9.59 2.46 (6.89) 1,918 N/A 0.9 N/A National Leasing 15.26 (1.17) (0.39) 755 149.8 0.7 3.3 Dlala Holding 20.00 (0.74) (6.93) 568 145.7 2.1 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 10.28 2.80 3.32 324 24.2 1.0 5.8 Islamic Holding Group Banking and Financial Services 60.50 4.49 (0.82) 343 82.7 2.4 1.7 Zad Holding 84.00 0.00 (5.83) 1,099 10.2 1.3 4.8 9.84 (0.10) (2.57) 114 N/A 1.2 N/A 247,517 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices Salam International Investment 11.92 0.25 7.87 1,363 11.9 0.8 8.4 Medicare Group 86.00 18.95 36.72 2,420 37.2 2.4 2.1 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 27.00 (1.82) (1.64) 170 39.7 1.2 3.7 161.10 2.29 10.80 14,695 16.6 2.1 4.7 Widam Food Co. 67.00 0.60 (1.47) 1,206 N/A 4.0 5.2 Mannai Corp. 85.50 1.18 6.88 3,900 7.8 1.5 5.8 182.50 3.11 3.99 3,650 18.3 2.7 4.9 Qatar Fuel Al Meera Consumer Goods Consum er Goods and Services 28,616 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 49.00 2.19 10.11 2,328 12.0 1.5 6.1 Qatar National Cement 94.00 0.64 9.30 5,585 11.8 1.8 3.9 121.00 2.54 2.98 73,205 24.8 2.2 4.1 59.50 6.63 1.71 7,397 26.7 2.9 1.7 231.00 3.77 1.76 25,410 16.5 3.1 3.2 Aamal 15.29 (0.20) 12.18 9,633 15.2 1.2 N/A Gulf International Services 29.70 4.21 (4.50) 5,519 83.5 1.5 3.4 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Industrials 15.53 1.17 (1.71) 19,511 19.6 1.4 4.5 Qatar Insurance Doha Insurance 73.50 (0.56) (0.32) 20,382 18.6 2.5 1.8 18.10 0.84 (0.55) 905 12.5 0.8 5.5 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 42.80 7.00 (8.94) 3,745 17.1 0.6 3.2 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 20.00 (6.98) (5.21) 511 17.3 1.0 5.0 Qatar Islamic Insurance Insurance 67.30 12.73 33.00 1,010 15.9 3.1 5.9 United Development 21.78 0.79 5.47 7,712 12.4 0.7 6.9 Barw a Real Estate 41.30 2.48 24.21 16,071 10.0 0.9 5.3 Ezdan Real Estate 15.95 4.59 5.56 42,307 24.2 1.4 3.1 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development Real Estate 14.51 1.82 0.83 1,600 17.0 1.1 N/A 109.30 (2.41) 7.37 35,011 16.0 1.6 2.7 9.27 1.20 (1.07) 7,837 N/A 1.7 N/A Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 92.10 (3.46) (3.66) 10,548 11.7 0.8 5.4 Gulf Warehousing Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 57.20 0.18 2.14 3,352 16.1 2.2 2.8 23.65 (3.43) 2.43 13,103 13.8 2.5 5.3 Industries Qatar Qatari Investors Group Qatar Electricity and Water 148,588 26,553 67,690 Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecom s 42,848 27,003 Transportation Qatar Exchange 588,815 Source: Bloomberg, * Trailing Twelve Months This report is produced by QNB Economics’ Economics Team in collaboration with QNB Financial Services. For questions, or to receive it by email each month, please contact: QNB Economics QNB Economics Tel: (+974) 4453 4642/4643 economics@qnb.com Saugata Sarkar Head of Research, QNBFS Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by Qatar National Bank (“QNB”) and QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”), a wholly-owned subsidiary. QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank, QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNB Economics and QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that are believed to be reliable, we have not independently verified all such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, no warranties are provided as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and any liability in that respect is declined. QNB/QNBFS reserve the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. They may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: This report is distributed on a complimentary basis to valued business partners of QNB. It may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.