MENA Market Report - 6 November

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Sunday , November 06, 2016 Overview Regional Markets: The trading activity within the MENA markets was skewed towards gainers, despite the weakness seen in the global markets on t he back of uncertainty around the US Presidential election this week, especially the race becoming tighter within the two candidates. While the global markets are crunching numbers and adopting hedging strategies, the MENA markets are being rewarded for improving fundamentals on the back of initiatives taken by the government. For the day, Egypt was the star performer with gains of 3.4% at the end of session after the central bank devalued the pound by 32.3% to an initial guidance level of EGP 13 to the USD. The strong trading activity seen was on the back of hope that the move by the central bank will draw billions of dollars into Egypt, which will stimulate growth going forward. Saudi Arabia also continued its upward trajectory as it closed up by 1.2% for the day, which was led by buying activity in the banking sector stocks, the biggest beneficiary of easing liquidity. Qatar closed down by 1.2% for the day, the worst performer within the region, which was mostly dragged lower by the index heavyweights QNB and Ooredoo. UAE markets closed on a positive note as Dubai was up by 0.2% and Abu Dhabi by 0.4% for the day. For the week, the performance of the regional markets ended mostly on a negative note, however Egypt and Saudi Arabia were the star performers. Egypt was up by 5.6% for the day, extending the annual gains to 25.8%. Saudi Arabia also closed up by 2.1% for the week, second consecutive weeks of gains to narrow the annual losses to 12.3%. Qatar was the worst performer as it lost around 4.0% for the week, which was mostly dragged by selling in the index heavyweight. International Markets: US markets closed on a negative note as Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P were all down by 0.2% each. European markets closed on a ne gative note as FTSE, DAX and CAC were all down by 1.4%, 0.7% and 0.8% respectively. Headlines (WW) Slowdown in orders, hiring curbs US services sector growth (SA) Saudi economy avoids crisis but outlook murky for deficit, growth (WW) Payrolls in US Rise 161,000 in October as Wages Accelerate (SA) Korea wants to contribute to Kingdom's vision 2030 (WW) Service sector thrives but price pressures spiral in UK (SA) Saudi to restrict SME market to professional investors -draft rules (WW) China New Economy Fund announces rights issue, share capital increase (WW) Japan's economic growth seen edging up in third quarter but still fragile (AE) UAE private sector growth momentum slowed in October (WW) Japan, Russia agree to economic cooperation ahead of summit (AE) UAE, Argentina sign deal on double taxation (WW) German economy minister urges China to assure level playing field (EG) IMF's Lagarde says Egypt currency float is "welcome move" (WW) Australia's central bank upbeat on economy; retail sales rise (EG) Egypt can no longer afford stop-gap economic measures (CMD) Oil falls by most in a week since January on OPEC tensions (EG) General Electric Gas expands service facilities in Egypt (CMD) Gold Prices Brace for Volatility as Election Day Looms (QA) Qatar is the best performing GCC country for Xpress Money (FX) Sterling enjoys best week since 2009 as 'hard Brexit' fears ease (KW) Kuwait, Ukrain agree to broaden coorperation (FX) Dollar falls against Swiss franc on U.S. election uncertainty (MO) Morocco reports fall in third quarter jobless rate to 9.6% (FI) Kuwait launches foreign bond sale to finance deficit (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) (AE) UAE working on new laws to attract industries MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,298.43 0.2% -0.6% Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,281.62 0.4% -0.3% -1.0% 4.7% ˅ ˅ ˄ -0.4% -0.6% ˅ ˅ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 6,060.46 1.2% 2.1% 0.8% -12.3% ˄ ˅ ˅ Kuwait (KWSE) 5,409.36 Egypt (EGX30) 8,810.51 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% -3.7% ˄ ˅ ˄ 3.4% 5.6% 5.1% 25.8% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 9,955.99 -1.2% -4.0% -2.1% -4.5% ˅ ˅ ˄ 1,144.37 -0.1% -0.3% -0.4% -5.9% ˄ ˄ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 5,462.14 -0.2% -0.6% -0.4% 1.0% ˅ ˅ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 259 268 268 85 95 95 78,177 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 47 69 72 34 36 41 114,058 Saudi (SASEIDX) 207 185 210 848 774 939 376,147 Index Kuwait (KWSE) 96 68 84 27 33 32 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 526 199 192 145 63 62 16,331 Qatar (DSM) 9 7 6 84 79 69 125,845 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1 2 2 1 1 1 17,656 Oman (MSM30) 7 17 17 4 8 9 16,252 * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Sunday , November 06, 2016 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 12.2 11.8 12 PB 10.8 10.5 8.0 386.2 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.5 - - 0.8 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 178.1 106.9 87.2 1.3 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 8% 6% Current 489.3 12.9 9.1 1.2 Previous 600 36% 5.0% 25.8% 27% 5.9% 5.4% 4.9% 4.1% 18% 3.5% 4% 9% 4.7% 1.0% 0% 2.4% -0.6% -9% 2% 0.0% 0.0% 0% -3.7% -4.5% -5.9% Qatar Bahrain -12.3% -18% -27% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Sunday , November 06, 2016 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) AJMAN BANK PJSC 1.41 -2.76% 164 234 52 TAKAFUL EMARAT INSURANCE PJSC 2.75 -2.14% 1 1 7,585 8,154 DAMAC PROPERTIES DUBAI CO PSC 2.17 -1.36% 1,096 2,395 2,522 2,572 EMAAR MALLS GROUP PJSC 2.58 -0.77% 674 1,746 1.77% 3,630 4,138 DXB ENTERTAINMENTS PJSC 1.54 -0.65% 8,235 12,724 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) RAS AL KHAIMAH CEMENT CO PSC 0.76 2.70% 32 24 ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 0.97 -3.96% 95 94 FIRST GULF BANK PJSC 11.65 2.19% 1,861 21,450 NATIONAL BANK OF RAS AL KHAIMAH 4.93 -2.57% 96 480 MANAZEL REAL ESTATE PJSC 0.48 2.13% 3,775 1,793 AGTHIA GROUP PJSC 5.85 -2.50% 62 369 ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 0.59 1.72% 6 4 ABU DHABI COMMERCIAL BANK PJSC 6.00 -1.64% 706 4,273 METHAQ TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO 0.78 1.30% 634 491 ABU DHABI ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 3.46 -1.14% 521 1,812 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) AL AHLIA FOR COOPERATIVE 5.35 9.18% 6,603 33,841 ETIHAD ATHEEB TELECOMMUNICA 3.00 -1.64% 1,024 3,097 SOLIDARITY SAUDI TAKAFUL CO JSC 7.60 8.57% 4,514 32,951 AL RAJHI COFOR COOPERATIVE 25.00 -1.57% 897 22,603 SAUDI MARKETING COMPANY CJSC 24.00 5.49% 396 9,250 CHUBB ARABIA COOP INSURANCE 32.60 -1.21% 231 7,592 SAUDI INDIAN CO FOR COOPERATIVE 13.25 4.33% 5,290 68,633 ASEER TRADING TOURISM 12.55 -0.79% 684 8,618 ARRIYADH DEVELOPMENT CO SJSC 19.00 4.11% 225 4,198 SAUDI COMPANY FOR HARDWARE 63.00 -0.79% 157 9,907 Top Gainers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Top Losers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) KUWAIT REMAL REAL ESTATE CO KPSC 55.00 10.00% 7,867 413 KUWAIT AND MIDDLE EAST FINANCIAL 20.50 -8.89% 3 0 KUWAIT REAL ESTATE HOLDING CO 23.00 9.52% 791 17 HOUSING FINANCE CO KSCP 52.00 -7.14% 4,207 227 TAAMEER REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT 20.50 7.89% 132 3 JEERAN HOLDING COMPANY KSCP 58.00 -6.45% 1 0 AL-MASSALEH REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 38.00 7.04% 8 0 AL MAL INVESTMENT COMPANY KPSC 19.50 -4.88% 3,040 61 AL MUDON INTERNATIONAL REAL 29.50 5.36% 8,026 231 HEAVY ENGINEERING INDUSTRIES 152.00 -3.80% 9 1 Close DoD % Volume Value Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) 23.08 9.90% 406 8,958 CAIRO NATIONAL CO FOR INVEST 2.67 -9.18% 6 16 MISR HOTELS CO SAE 20.48 9.81% 5 102 MEMPHIS PHARMACEUTICALS 9.04 -9.05% 1 12 AL EZZ DEKHEILA STEEL COMPANY 230.41 9.72% 17 3,744 AL ARAFA FOR INVESTMENT 0.11 -8.33% 184 21 QATAR NATIONAL BANK ALAHLY SAE 30.36 9.13% 30 881 ARAB VALVES CO SAE 0.69 -6.76% 88 63 EGYPT ALUMINUM CO SAE 12.03 8.97% 2 19 DELTA CO FOR PRINTING PACKAGING 7.00 -6.67% 1 11 Close DoD % Volume Value Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) DOHA INSURANCE CO QSC 18.50 1.09% 3 53 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QSC 20.00 -6.54% 17 358 EZDAN HOLDING GROUP QSC 16.00 0.95% 781 12,430 GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 28.00 -4.11% 221 6,309 MEDICARE GROUP QSC 56.00 0.72% 153 8,541 QATARI INVESTORS GROUP QSC 53.00 -3.99% 60 3,235 DOHA BANK QSC 36.00 0.70% 67 2,391 OOREDOO QSC 92.00 -3.16% 125 11,684 COMMERCIAL BANK QSC 36.45 0.69% 80 2,913 QATARI GERMAN COMPANY 9.60 -3.03% 22 219 Close DoD % Volume Value GULF NAVIGATION HOLDING PJSC 1.23 6.96% 55,349 65,866 MASHREQBANK PSC 66.90 6.19% 1 SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 1.09 2.83% DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 1.03 1.98% DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET PJSC 1.15 Dubai Top Gainers Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Kuwait Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Top Gainers Egypt CREDIT AGRICOLE EGYPT SAE Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Sunday , November 06, 2016 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Telecom Co SJSC SA 32,267 60.50 2.1% -11.4% 849 13,689 69.75 51.00 15 2.0 6.6% 2 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,142 6.00 -1.6% -9.0% 706 1,154 7.36 5.20 7 1.1 7.5% 3 Almarai Co SJSC SA 12,480 58.50 0.4% -0.3% 140 2,188 66.00 40.88 23 3.7 1.5% 4 Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co SJSC SA 7,139 64.25 1.2% -22.4% 164 2,804 88.25 58.00 23 4.1 9.3% 5 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 67,400 84.25 0.6% 9.8% 4,938 110,926 91.00 59.50 15 1.6 6.5% 6 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 8,409 485.00 0.0% -1.2% 1,208 1,938 545.45 395.45 14 1.4 3.2% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 22,933 43.00 1.4% -15.7% 769 8,823 54.25 32.00 9 1.5 3.6% 8 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 20,389 18.35 1.4% 16.5% 1,416 6,927 21.80 12.40 25 1.2 3.8% 9 DP World Ltd AE 14,525 17.50 -1.1% -13.8% 182 868 20.41 16.05 15 1.7 1.7% 10 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 43,808 18.50 0.0% 14.9% 1,568 7,900 20.20 14.95 18 3.8 4.3% 11 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 14,275 11.65 2.2% -7.9% 1,861 5,904 13.50 9.90 9 1.5 8.6% 12 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 13,198 6.77 0.3% 19.0% 4,554 8,394 7.46 4.22 11 1.2 2.2% 13 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 10,999 590.00 -1.7% -20.7% 725 1,414 799.36 550.00 12 1.0 4.7% 14 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 11,657 16.00 0.9% 0.6% 781 3,430 20.24 12.10 24 1.4 3.1% 15 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 11,985 7.92 0.3% 7.0% 50 108 8.89 6.25 6 0.8 5.1% 16 Industries Qatar QSC QA 16,667 100.30 -1.6% -9.7% 98 2,688 121.10 88.00 18 1.8 5.0% 17 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 7,520 18.80 1.6% -24.0% 1,693 8,486 28.40 16.40 7 0.9 4.0% 18 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 15,676 63.25 0.8% 14.0% 717 12,095 68.75 40.80 101 5.8 0.0% 19 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,179 10.30 1.0% -34.4% 78 216 21.20 9.80 75 1.4 4.9% 20 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 7,326 22.80 1.8% -18.6% 322 1,961 30.00 18.00 7 1.0 4.6% 21 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,143 2.58 -0.8% -6.5% 674 473 3.21 2.02 19 2.2 3.9% 22 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 12,611 8.89 1.3% 11.7% 256 620 10.35 6.86 10 1.0 5.1% 23 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,094 92.00 -3.2% 22.7% 125 3,158 107.00 60.00 13 1.3 3.3% 24 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 25,025 57.75 0.9% 11.1% 1,580 24,328 62.75 44.70 12 1.9 2.6% 25 Emirates Integrated Telecomm AE 7,531 6.05 0.0% 18.6% 303 499 6.99 4.89 15 3.6 7.1% 26 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 10,507 19.70 0.5% -15.6% 492 2,586 23.55 15.90 8 1.0 4.6% 27 Commercial International Bank Egypt EG 7,168 55.16 5.7% 44.8% 4,145 14,992 57.39 28.90 13 3.7 1.4% 28 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 7,960 9.95 -0.5% -19.8% 464 1,232 12.85 8.55 8 0.8 7.0% 29 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 12,277 39.40 2.9% 18.7% 1,207 12,678 43.20 25.70 121 1.7 0.0% 30 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 36,140 156.70 -2.1% 7.5% 214 9,199 169.80 122.50 11 1.8 1.6% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 494,427 4.3% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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