Malaysian Markets Weekly Wrap - Week Ended 10 March

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP : Week ended 10 March 17  The FBM KLCI rose to a 19-month intraday high of 1,734 points on Tuesday before paring some its earlier gains to close at 1,718 points for a weekly gain of 0.5%.  Regional markets were subdued ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 14-15 March on expectations of a possible U.S. interest rate hike.  Looking ahead, investors are expected to assess the FOMC statement to ascertain the pace of U.S. interest rate hikes in the coming months. Performance of Key Indices (As at 10 March 17) Region Market FBM KLCI FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Shariah Index Local South East Asia North Asia Wall Street Europe Index 1,718 12,560 % Weekly Change +0.5 +0.5 Straits Times Index 3,133 +0.4 Jakarta Composite Index 5,391 -0.01 10,069 3,213 20,903 5,862 3,101 -0.7 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.5 China ‘H’ Shares Shanghai Composite Index Dow Jones Nasdaq STOXX Europe 50 Index 1. Stock Market Commentary Market Comments Lower oil prices capped gains: After touching a 19-month intraday high of 1,734 points Local on Tuesday amid foreign buying support, the FBM KLCI’s gains were partially erased as oil prices fell and U.S markets moved lower over the week. The FBM KLCI subsequently closed at 1,718 points to register a weekly gain of 0.5%. The FBM EMAS Shariah Index closed 0.5% higher at 12,560 points for the week. Meanwhile, the FBM Small Cap Index rose by 2.5% over the same period. Regional Subdued amid potential U.S. interest rate hike: Regional markets were subdued on expectations of a potential U.S. interest rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The China ‘H’ shares and Taiwan markets edged down by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively. Japan’s TOPIX moved 1.0% higher over the week as the weaker Yen boosted the outlook for Japanese exporters’ earnings. Meanwhile, Korean stocks firmed by 0.9% on expectations of fresh elections to be held following the impeachment of the South Korean president. South-East Asian markets were lacklustre over the week with the Thailand and Philippine markets easing by 1.7% and 1.4% respectively over the week. The Australian market bucked the trend by registering a weekly increase of 0.8% amid gains in financial stocks. Page 1 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Global Markets Softened as Oil Prices Fell
2. Comments Sentiment dampened by softer oil prices : The Dow moved lower over the week as oil prices declined for five consecutive days. However, better-than-expected non-farm payroll data helped pare some losses on Friday. The Dow eased by 0.5% while the Nasdaq closed 0.2% lower for the week. Europe European markets, as proxied by the STOXX Europe 50 Index, registered a weekly loss of 0.5% amid a decline in energy stocks due to lower oil prices. Selected Markets’ Weekly Performances 16,117 1,708 12,499 % Weekly change +2.5 +0.5 +0.5 % YTD change +12.3 +4.6 +4.5 3,133 5,390.7 7,146 1,540 3,122 5,391.2 7,247 1,566 +0.4 -0.01 -1.4 -1.7 +8.8 +1.8 +4.5 -0.2 1,574 2,097 6,607 526 23,569 3,213 9,628 10,069 1,558 2,079 6,592 525 23,553 3,218 9,648 10,144 +1.0 +0.9 +0.2 +0.2 +0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.7 +3.6 +3.5 +10.3 +8.8 +7.1 +3.5 +4.0 +7.2 +0.8 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 # in USD +1.9 +8.9 +5.6 +2.8 +5.8 +3.0 10 Mar’ 17 3 Mar’ 17 FBM Small Cap Index FBM KLCI FBM EMAS Shariah Index 16,523 1,718 12,560 South-East Asia Singapore Indonesia Philippines Thailand North Asia TOPIX (Japan) South Korea MSCI China MSCI FEXJ# Hong Kong SH Comp (China) Taiwan China*, H Share Global Australia 5,776 5,730 Nasdaq 5,862 5,871 MSCI World# 445.5 446.5 FTSE 100 (U.K.) 7,343 7,374 Dow Jones 20,903 21,006 Europe** 3,101 3,117 * ** Hang Seng China Enterprises Index STOXX Europe 50 Index 2. Economic Commentary Market Commentary Malaysia - On a weekly basis, the Ringgit was unchanged at RM4.45 against the US$. On a year-to-date basis, the Ringgit firmed by 0.8% against the greenback. U.S. - Led by fewer jobs created in the services sector, total new non-farm jobs moderated to 235,000 jobs in February compared to a revised 238,000 jobs created in January and market expectations of 190,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.7% from 4.8% over the same period. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings growth rose to 2.8% in February from 2.6% in January. Page 2 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Market Wall Street
3. Jan ’ 17 +184 +11 +40 +238 Feb’ 17 +140 +28 +58 +235 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Fig 1. Monthly Change in Non-Farm Jobs '000s 350 300 250 297 237 291 249 225 200 153 164 235 155 124 150 100 238 176 43 50 0 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 - China’s export growth moderated to 4.0% in the first two months of 2017 from 7.7% in 2016 due to lower exports to Europe. Meanwhile, imports rebounded to a growth of 26.4% compared to a decline of 5.5% over the same period. China’s cumulative trade surplus narrowed to US$42.2 billion in the first two months of 2017 compared to RM84.9 billion in the same period last year. - The inflation rate eased sharply to a 25-month low of 0.8% in February from 2.5% in January due to lower food prices. Eurozone - At its monetary policy meeting on 9 March, the European Central Bank (ECB) held its benchmark refinancing rate at 0% and left the pace of its monthly bond-buying unchanged. Australia - Australia’s GDP growth gained pace from 1.9% in 3Q2016 to 2.4% in 4Q2016 on the back of higher consumer spending and export growth. For the full year of 2016, Australia’s GDP growth edged up to 2.5% from 2.4% in 2015 on sustained private consumption and public spending. Commodity - On a weekly basis, Brent crude oil prices fell by 8.1% to a 3-month low of US$51.37/brl due to rising U.S. crude production. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices closed 9.1% lower at US$48.49/brl over the same period. China US$/brl 60.0 Fig 2. Weekly Brent Crude Oil & Ringgit Trends US$/RM 0.2250 55.0 0.2245 50.0 45.0 0.2240 03-Mar - 06-Mar 07-Mar Brent Crude Oil (LHS) 08-Mar 09-Mar 10-Mar USD per Ringgit (RHS) The CRB Commodity Price Index, which measures a broad range of commodities such as food, metals and raw materials, inched down by 0.6% to close at 431.69 points. Page 3 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF U.S. Non-Farm Jobs Composition (‘000) Services Manufacturing Construction Total
4. GDP Growth (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S. Eurozone Source: Bloomberg 2016 6.7 6.8 5.0 4.2 1.9 2.0 2.7 1.5 2.5 3.2 1.0 1.6 1.7 2017F 6.5 6.5 5.3 4.3 2.1 1.6 2.5 2.0 2.5 3.3 1.1 2.3 1.5 2018F 6.2 6.5 5.5 4.5 2.1 2.0 2.6 2.0 2.8 3.4 0.9 2.3 1.5 2017F 2.3 3.1 4.3 2.7 2.2 0.9 1.8 1.3 2.1 1.6 0.6 2.4 1.6 2018F 2.3 3.1 4.5 2.6 2.5 1.2 1.9 1.4 2.2 2.0 0.9 2.4 1.5 MARKET BRIEF Regional & Global GDP Statistics f=consensus forecast Regional & Global Inflation Statistics Inflation rate (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S. Eurozone 2016 2.0 1.8 3.5 2.1 2.4 -0.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.2 -0.1 1.3 0.2 Source: Bloomberg f=consensus forecast Regional & Global Markets’ Valuations Australia China ‘H’ Shares Hong Kong Shanghai Comp Thailand Singapore Taiwan Philippines Indonesia Japan South Korea U.S. (1) Europe Historic P/E(2) (x) 14.60 10.84 12.73 15.86 12.84 14.27 15.28 16.10 14.78 17.51 11.32 17.27(3) 13.93(3) Prospective P/E (x) 16.02 8.22 11.83 13.58 15.00 14.55 13.56 17.27 15.53 16.06 9.82 18.37 15.14 Estimated Dividend Yield (%) 4.40 3.57 3.52 1.97 3.05 3.54 4.04 1.78 2.14 1.91 1.78 2.06 4.05 Source: Bloomberg, 10 Mar’17 (1) S&P500 Index (2) 2007-2016 historical average (3) 1997-2016 historical average Page 4 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
5. The recent retracement in oil prices was attributed to rising oil inventory and supply in the U .S. Any upside to oil prices will likely be curbed by continued oil production in the U.S. unless the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) extends its production cut. On the local front, investors are expected to remain focused on the release of industrial production data to assess the pace of domestic economic growth. The trend in oil prices and the Ringgit will also continue to influence market sentiment. As at 10 March 2017, the local market traded slightly below its historical average P/E ratio: - P/E valuation: prospective P/E ratio of 16.3x versus its 10-year historical average of 16.4x. - Dividend yield: 3.21% was above the 12-month F.D. rate of 3.11%*. The average P/E ratio of the regional markets, as proxied by the MSCI Far East ex-Japan Index, traded below its 10-year historical average: - Regional P/E valuations: 12.6x versus the 10-year historical average of 13.5x. * The average F.D. rate offered by four key domestic banks Bursa Securities’ Market Valuations FBM KLCI PER (x) Dividend Yield 3mth InterBk 12mth FD, % ^ 10 Mar’ 17 1,718 16.30 3.21% 3.43% 3.10% 2007-2016 historical average 3 Mar’ 17 1,708 16.20 3.23% 3.43% 3.10% Source: Bloomberg Bursa Securities' 10-Year P/E Ratio MSCI FE ex-Japan's 10-Year P/E Ratio 25 20 10 Mar' 2017 P/E: 16.3x 10 Mar' 2017 P/E: 12.6x P/E Ratio (x) 20 P/E Ratio (x) 10-yr av.^ 16.43 3.56% 3.27% - 15 10 15 10 Average: 16.4x 5 Average: 13.5x 5 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Page 5 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF 3. Market Outlook & Valuations While the markets have factored in the prospect of a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting on 1415 March, investors are expected to assess the FOMC statement to ascertain the pace of U.S. interest rate hikes in the coming months. Despite the prospect of a sooner-than-expected rate hike in the U.S., U.S. markets have remained fairly resilient amid optimism over the U.S. economic outlook.
6. 4 . Bond Market Commentary & Outlook U.S. Treasuries (UST) - For the week ended 10 March 2017, U.S. Treasury (UST) yields ended higher on increased expectations of a possible Federal funds rate hike at the 14-15 March FOMC meeting. The 10-year UST yield rose by 9 basis points (bps) from 2.48% to 2.57%. Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) - The MGS market closed on a softer note amid lower crude oil prices and cautious sentiment ahead of the FOMC meeting. The 10-year MGS yield rose by 3 bps from 4.15% to 4.18%. Local Corporate Bonds & Bond Funds’ Performance - Overall, the bond funds registered mixed performances as the domestic bond market remained cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting. Foreign Exchange Weekly Changes of Selected Currencies versus the US$ Currency per Weekly % US$ change Euro 0.90 +0.7 Indonesia Rupiah 13,368 +0.1 Ringgit 4.45 Chinese Yuan 6.92 -0.2 Singapore Dollar 1.42 -0.3 Dollar Index* 101.25 -0.3 Australian Dollar 1.33 -0.4 Pound Sterling 0.82 -0.5 Japanese Yen 115.37 -0.8 YTD % change +0.6 +0.4 +0.8 +0.4 +1.8 -0.9 +4.1 -1.2 +1.2 Source: Bloomberg *An index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies Bond Market Outlook - Looking ahead, global bond markets will likely be volatile as market participants assess the potential impact of the new U.S. administration’s economic policies on the global economy and financial markets, as well as the outlook for higher U.S. Federal funds rates. - At the March FOMC meeting, most market participants are expecting a 25 bps hike in the Federal funds rate from 0.50%-0.75% to 0.75%-1.00%. - On the domestic front, market participants are closely monitoring the potential impact of the U.S. administration’s economic policies and the pace of further U.S. interest rate hikes in 2017. Page 6 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Commentary
7. Change in Interest Rates & Bond Yields 10 Mar’ 17 KLIBOR U.S. T Bill U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp 'AA' Corp U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp. 'AA' Corp U.S. T Bond MGS 'AAA' Corp. 'AA' Corp 3 Mar’ 17 3 Month Interest Rates 3.43 3.43 0.74 0.70 3 Year 1.66 1.58 3.50 3.43 4.29 4.20 4.59 4.53 5 Year 2.10 2.01 3.89 3.83 4.40 4.34 4.72 4.68 10 Year 2.57 2.48 4.18 4.15 4.71 4.70 5.00 4.99 % change* MARKET BRIEF (in %) +4 +8 +7 +9 +6 +9 +6 +6 +4 +9 +3 +1 +1 *in basis points Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Page 7 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
8. Performance of Equity and Balanced Funds * Local Funds PSF PGF PIX PINDGF PAGF PRSF PBF P Small Cap PEF PFSF PDSF PSSF PSA30F POGF PBBF PBGF PBGSQF PSSCF PBMAC PBBSQF PSMACF PSMAGF PSTGF PBDBEF PSTEF PAVGEF PGRBF PBSCGF PRSSQF PEMOF PBMAGRF 10 Mar’17 3 Mar’17 0.5201 0.4647 0.6441 0.4936 0.6314 0.6101 0.6679 0.9148 0.2571 0.2718 0.2695 0.2909 0.2818 0.3053 0.7881 0.7723 0.2642 0.3287 0.2512 0.2548 0.2814 0.2686 0.2797 0.2616 0.2778 0.2732 0.2615 0.2584 0.2560 0.2643 0.2572 0.5166 0.4610 0.6410 0.4902 0.6274 0.6060 0.6646 0.9007 0.2556 0.2710 0.2681 0.2884 0.2810 0.3031 0.7855 0.7665 0.2619 0.3265 0.2509 0.2537 0.2803 0.2666 0.2785 0.2600 0.2747 0.2702 0.2605 0.2575 0.2548 0.2622 0.2569 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.7 +0.5 +0.8 +0.5 +0.5 +0.5 +0.7 +0.5 +0.6 +0.5 +0.7 +0.5 +0.5 +0.4 +1.6 +2.5 +0.6 +0.5 +0.3 +0.5 +0.5 +0.5 +0.9 +0.5 +0.3 +0.5 +0.7 +0.5 +0.3 +0.4 +0.8 +0.5 +0.9 +0.5 +0.7 +2.5 +0.1 +0.2 +0.4 +0.4 +0.4 +0.2 +0.8 +0.4 +0.4 +0.3 +0.6 +0.5 +1.1 +0.9 +1.1 +0.5 +0.4 +0.4 +0.3 +2.3 +0.5 +0.5 +0.8 +1.1 +0.1 +0.4 PFES PRSEC PGSF PFEDF PFEBF PTAF PCSF PFEPRF PSEASF PFECTF PCTF PFETIF PWEF PAUEF PFA30F PINDOSF PBAEF PBADF PBEPEF PBCPEF PBCAEF PBCAUEF PBSGA30EF PBAPENTF PBAREIF PBADBF PBINDOBF PSGEF PBAEGF PBDYNAF PBGEF PSTBLF POEF PBADSQF PNVGF P Ittikal PIEF PIOF PIMXAF PIDF PISSF PISTF PIOGF PISEF PIA40GF PISVF PITGF PITSEQ PBIEF PISGIF PESMACF PESMAGF PIENTEF PIAVGEF PIGRBF PIEMOF 3 Mar’17 0.8639 0.3385 0.4152 0.2455 0.3651 0.2597 0.3422 0.2750 0.3771 0.2803 0.2907 0.2896 0.2952 0.2611 0.2392 0.2607 0.3019 0.2532 0.2680 0.2664 0.2674 0.8595 0.3367 0.4112 0.2446 0.3635 0.2583 0.3407 0.2731 0.3754 0.2781 0.2891 0.2868 0.2934 0.2599 0.2379 0.2598 0.3005 0.2518 0.2660 0.2649 0.2650 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.5 +0.5 +1.0 +0.4 +0.4 +0.5 +0.4 +0.7 +0.5 +0.8 +0.6 +1.0 +0.6 +0.5 +0.5 +0.3 +0.5 +0.6 +0.8 +0.6 +0.9 +0.5 +0.5 +2.9 +0.4 +0.4 +0.5 +1.4 +0.5 +0.5 +0.4 +0.4 +1.3 +0.5 +0.5 +0.5 +0.1 +0.2 +0.3 +0.3 +0.2 +1.3 Public Mutual's Private Retirement Scheme Funds Performance PRS-GRF PRS-MDF PRS-CVF PRS-IGRF PRS-IMDF PRS-ICVF PRS-EQF PRS-SEQF PRS-ISEQF 10 Mar’17 3 Mar’17 0.2576 0.2636 0.2727 0.2834 0.2731 0.2693 0.2685 0.2784 0.2628 0.2572 0.2621 0.2722 0.2822 0.2721 0.2690 0.2660 0.2772 0.2615 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.2 +0.6 +0.2 +0.4 +0.4 +0.1 +0.9 +0.4 +0.5 +0.4 +0.3 +0.1 +0.4 +0.3 +0.1 +0.5 +0.4 +0.2 3 Mar’17 0.3171 0.2655 0.3369 0.2943 0.2723 0.3226 0.2897 0.3031 0.2850 0.2728 0.3218 0.3683 0.2308 0.2887 0.3822 0.2962 0.2959 0.3059 0.2728 0.2805 0.3748 0.2696 0.3085 0.3196 0.3320 0.2933 0.2866 0.3058 0.3040 1.2343 0.3200 0.2732 0.2692 0.2545 0.2491 0.3156 0.2659 0.3365 0.2941 0.2711 0.3214 0.2883 0.3027 0.2857 0.2714 0.3213 0.3677 0.2309 0.2870 0.3812 0.2960 0.2935 0.3060 0.2719 0.2801 0.3739 0.2684 0.3070 0.3191 0.3316 0.2923 0.2868 0.3045 0.3003 1.2283 0.3199 0.2726 0.2677 0.2559 0.2489 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.5 +0.1 -0.2 +0.1 +0.1 -0.2 +0.1 -0.01 +0.4 +0.1 +0.4 +0.1 +0.5 +0.1 +0.1 +0.4 -0.2 -0.4 +0.5 +0.4 +0.2 -0.4 +0.2 -0.3 -0.04 -0.2 +0.6 +0.4 +0.3 +0.3 +0.1 -0.1 +0.8 +0.3 -0.03 -0.4 +0.3 +0.3 +0.1 +0.2 +0.2 -0.1 +0.4 +0.3 +0.5 +0.3 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 +0.3 -0.1 -0.04 +0.4 +0.3 +1.2 +0.02 +0.5 +0.1 +0.03 -0.2 +0.2 +0.04 +0.6 +0.4 -0.5 -0.4 +0.1 +0.1 Foreign Islamic Funds Local Islamic Funds 10 Mar’17 10 Mar’17 PAIF PIADF PIATAF PCIF PIALEF PBIAEF PBIASSF PIOEF 10 Mar’17 3 Mar’17 0.3327 0.3185 0.3334 0.2722 0.3381 0.2819 0.2550 0.2608 0.3309 0.3166 0.3319 0.2716 0.3362 0.2807 0.2533 0.2594 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.5 +0.6 +0.5 +0.2 +0.6 +0.4 +0.7 +0.5 +0.3 +0.2 +0.1 +0.01 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 Public Mutual's Bond Funds Performance P BOND PI BOND PIN BOND PEBF PSBF PIEBF PISBF PI INCOME PBFI PBIBF PBINFBF PIINFBF PSTBF PISTBF PSKF PBBOND PBSKF PENTBF PBASF 10 Mar’17 3 Mar’17 0.9506 0.9786 1.0073 1.0166 1.0334 1.0834 1.0394 1.0504 1.0616 1.1579 1.0881 1.0452 1.0438 1.0414 1.0502 1.0486 1.0557 1.0225 1.0360 0.9508 0.9787 1.0076 1.0157 1.0334 1.0826 1.0394 1.0506 1.0619 1.1581 1.0888 1.0455 1.0438 1.0413 1.0502 1.0487 1.0560 1.0231 1.0360 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark -0.02 -0.01 -0.03 +0.1 +0.1 -0.02 -0.03 -0.02 -0.1 -0.03 +0.01 -0.01 -0.03 -0.1 - +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Public Mutual's Money Market Funds Performance PMMF PIMMF PeCDF PeICDF PBCMF PBCPF PBICMF PBICPF 10 Mar’17 3 Mar’17 0.9971 1.0405 1.0009 1.0008 1.0252 1.0012 1.0199 1.0008 0.9965 1.0399 1.0003 1.0003 1.0246 1.0006 1.0193 1.0002 *Buying price Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.05 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Page 8 of 13 FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Foreign Funds
9. 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 28 February 2017 Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAGF) (PDSF) (PEF) (PGF) (PIX) (PINDGF) (POGF) (PRSF) (PSF) (PSSF) (PSA30F) (PBGF) (PBGSQF) 0.3 -0.3 1.3 1.8 -0.1 1.8 1.1 -0.2 0.7 2.6 -1.3 2.7 -1.0 Moderate Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.2 5.8 5.7 5.7 6.9 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.5 6.2 7.7 6.5 7.0 (PIA40GF) (PIDF) (PIEF) (PIOGF) (PISSF) (PISEF) (P ITTIKAL) (PITSEQ) (PISVF) (PBIEF) 0.8 1.8 1.6 0.2 -0.9 -0.1 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.5 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.4 5.7 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.2 5.6 6.4 6.1 6.7 (PFSF) (P SmallCap) (PSSCF) (PIOF) (PISTF) (PITGF) 2.9 7.8 3.8 5.9 5.4 -0.7 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate High High 7.1 8.0 7.3 7.4 8.2 8.3 (PAUEF) (PCSF) (PCTF) (PFA30F) (PFECTF) (PFEDF) (PFEPRF) (PFES) (PFETIF) (PINDOSF) (PRSEC) (PSGEF) (PSEASF) (PBAEGF) (PBADF) (PBAEF) (PBAPENTF) (PBCAEF) (PBCAUEF) (PBCPEF) (PBSGA30EF) 6.3 18.8 12.9 16.0 2.2 13.9 8.3 13.7 9.2 8.9 10.0 9.1 7.1 7.8 7.5 12.7 9.8 15.8 14.1 18.4 8.2 Very High Very High Very High Very High High High High Very High High Very High High High High High Moderate High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High 12.3 13.9 14.5 11.4 9.7 10.4 8.5 11.8 8.7 14.8 10.3 10.9 8.4 10.0 7.6 9.7 11.2 12.0 13.3 14.4 11.3 Fund Name I. EQUITY FUNDS Non Regional Funds Public Aggressive Growth Fund Public Dividend Select Fund Public Equity Fund Public Growth Fund Public Index Fund Public Industry Growth Fund Public Optimal Growth Fund Public Regular Savings Fund Public Savings Fund Public Sector Select Fund Public Select Alpha-30 Fund PB Growth Fund PB Growth Sequel Fund Islamic Non Regional Funds Public Islamic Alpha-40 Growth Fund Public Islamic Dividend Fund Public Islamic Equity Fund Public Islamic Optimal Growth Fund Public Islamic Sector Select Fund Public Islamic Select Enterprises Fund Public Ittikal Fund Public Ittikal Sequel Fund Public Islamic Savings Fund PB Islamic Equity Fund Small & Mid Cap Funds Public Focus Select Fund Public SmallCap Fund Public Strategic SmallCap Fund Public Islamic Opportunities Fund Public Islamic Select Treasures Fund Public Islamic Treasures Growth Fund Regional Funds Public Australia Equity Fund Public China Select Fund Public China Titans Fund Public Far-East Alpha-30 Fund Public Far-East Consumer Themes Fund Public Far-East Dividend Fund Public Far-East Property & Resorts Fund Public Far-East Select Fund Public Far-East Telco & Infrastructure Fund Public Indonesia Select Fund Public Regional Sector Fund Public Singapore Equity Fund Public South-East Asia Select Fund PB Asia Emerging Growth Fund PB ASEAN Dividend Fund PB Asia Equity Fund PB Asia Pacific Enterprises Fund PB China ASEAN Equity Fund PB China Australia Equity Fund PB China Pacific Equity Fund PB Singapore Advantage-30 Equity Fund Page 9 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Return and Volatility Measures for Public Mutual’s Funds For the 3 Years Period Ended 28 February 2017
10. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAIF) (PCIF) (PIADF) (PIALEF) (PBIAEF) (PBIASSF) 9.9 11.3 7.9 9.9 9.7 9.0 High Very High High High High High 9.2 10.7 8.4 10.2 9.3 9.3 (PGSF) (PWEF) (PBEPEF) 11.7 -0.6 10.2 High High High 9.4 10.3 9.4 (PBF) (PFEBF) (PTAF) (PBAREIF) (PBADBF) (PBBF) (PBBSQF) (PBDYNAF) (PBINDOBF) (PBMAC) 2.8 6.5 12.4 7.4 5.5 3.1 1.0 6.5 8.8 2.3 Low Moderate High Low Moderate Low Low High Very High Low 4.3 7.7 9.0 5.8 7.9 4.1 4.1 9.2 11.3 3.1 (PIMXAF) (PIATAF) -0.2 9.6 Low High 5.5 8.9 (PBOND) (PEBF) (PENTBF) (PIN Bond) (PSBF) (PSTBF) (PBBOND) (PBFI) (PBINFBF) 4.3 3.9 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.6 Very Low Very Low Very Low n.a. Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Low 1.0 1.5 1.3 n.a. 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.8 (PI BOND) (PIEBF) (PI INCOME) (PIINFBF) (PISBF) (PISTBF) (PSKF) (PBASF) (PBIBF) (PBSKF) 4.9 4.3 3.8 4.7 3.9 4.2 4.6 4.9 4.8 4.7 Very Low Very Low Very Low Low Very Low Very Low Low Low Low Low 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.9 (PMMF) (PBCMF) (PBCPF) 3.3 3.3 3.3 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 (PIMMF) (PBICMF) (PBICPF) 3.2 3.1 3.2 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 Fund Name Islamic Regional Funds Public Asia Ittikal Fund Public China Ittikal Fund Public Islamic Asia Dividend Fund Public Islamic Asia Leaders Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Strategic Sector Fund Global Funds Public Global Select Fund Public Worldwide Equity Fund PB Euro Pacific Equity Fund II. BALANCED FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Balanced Fund Public Far-East Balanced Fund Public Tactical Allocation Fund PB Asia Real Estate Income Fund PB Australia Dynamic Balanced Fund PB Balanced Fund PB Balanced Sequel Fund PB Dynamic Allocation Fund PB Indonesia Balanced Fund PB Mixed Asset Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Mixed Asset Fund Public Islamic Asia Tactical Allocation Fund III. BOND FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Bond Fund Public Enhanced Bond Fund Public Enterprises Bond Fund Public Institutional Bond Fund Public Select Bond Fund Public Strategic Bond Fund PB Bond Fund PB Fixed Income Fund PB Infrastructure Bond Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Bond Fund Public Islamic Enhanced Bond Fund Public Islamic Income Fund Public Islamic Infrastructure Bond Fund Public Islamic Select Bond Fund Public Islamic Strategic Bond Fund Public Sukuk Fund PB Aiman Sukuk Fund PB Islamic Bond Fund PB Sukuk Fund IV. MONEY MARKET FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Money Market Fund PB Cash Management Fund PB Cash Plus Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Money Market Fund PB Islamic Cash Management Fund PB Islamic Cash Plus Fund Page 10 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 31 January 2017
11. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PRS-GRF) (PRS-MDF) (PRS-CVF) 0.7 1.1 3.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (PRS-IGRF) (PRS-IMDF) (PRS-ICVF) 3.9 2.2 3.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Fund Name V. PRS FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Growth Fund Public Mutual PRS Moderate Fund Public Mutual PRS Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Islamic Growth Fund Public Mutual PRS Islamic Moderate Fund Public Mutual PRS Islamic Conservative Fund * PB series of funds are highlighted to differentiate them from the Public series of funds # Based on the fund’s portfolio returns as at 31 January 2017 (Source: Lipper) Annualised Return = compounded annual rate of return of the fund over the specific period. The Volatility Factor (VF) means there is a possibility for the fund in generating an upside return or downside return around this VF. The Volatility Class (VC) is assigned by Lipper based on quintile ranks of VF for qualified funds. VF is subject to monthly revision and VC is revised every six months. The volatility banding for the “Very Low”, “Low”, “Moderate”, “High” and “Very High” VCs as at 31 December 2016 are 0.000 ≤ VF ≤ 1.785, 1.785 < VF ≤ 5.965, 5.965 < VF ≤ 8.015, 8.015 < VF ≤ 10.605 and VF more than 10.605 respectively. For this period to 30 June 2017 the VCs for the funds are based on the VFs of the respective funds as at 31 December 2016. The fund’s portfolio may have changed since this date and there is no guarantee that the fund will continue to have the same VF or VC in the future. Presently, only funds launched in the market for at least 36 months will display the VF and its VC. Page 11 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 31 January 2017
12. Glossary Definition Price Earnings Ratio The Price Earnings Ratio (PER) is the ratio of a company's current share price compared to its earnings per share. The PER of the market is derived from the aggregate market capitalisation divided by the total net profits of the listed companies in the relevant market. Dividend yield is the ratio of a company’s dividend per share to its stock price. The dividend yield of the market is computed as the total gross dividends of the market divided by the aggregate market capitalisation. A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. The inflation rate measures the change in the general level of prices for goods and services. Industrial Production Index (IPI) is an economic indicator which shows the production of output from industrial activities such as mining, manufacturing and utilities. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey-based index that indicates the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are expanding while a reading below 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are contracting. The consumer confidence index measures the level of consumers’ sentiment regarding the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. An improving trend in the consumer confidence index suggests that consumer spending may be rising. A fiscal deficit arises when a government's total expenditures exceed the revenue that it collects. The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) is an overnight interest rate set by Bank Negara Malaysia. It is the interest rate that a borrower bank has to pay to a lending bank for the funds borrowed. Increasing the OPR will result in higher interest rates for the economy. There are two main yield calculations. (1) Current yield is calculated by dividing a bond’s coupon by its market price or valuation. A bond’s yield moves inversely to its price. (2) Yield-to-maturity is the return attributable to investors if the bond is held to maturity. A government policy that aims to reduce the budget deficit over time. This is implemented through measures to increase taxes and/or reduce government spending. In general, the lower the budget deficit, the lower the potential supply of government bonds to be issued to finance the government’s budget deficit. Dividend yield GDP Inflation IPI PMI Consumer Confidence Index Fiscal deficit OPR Bond yields Fiscal consolidation Page 12 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
13. THE CONTENTS OF THIS REPORT ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY AND NO PART OF THIS REPORT IS TO BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO INVEST IN PUBLIC MUTUAL ’S FUNDS. This Weekly Wrap report summarises the movement of the equity and bond markets as well as the funds’ performance for the period under review and is intended for circulation to the unitholders of Public Mutual. The Market Brief is prepared based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but Public Mutual does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The Fund Performance Review summarises the fund’s weekly performance compared against its benchmark. The fund’s 3-year return together with its volatility class and factor (as at the end of the previous month) are shown to give readers a better perspective of the fund’s longer term performance and its risk. Readers should note that past performance of a fund is not an indication of its future performance. No part of this report may be shared, reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed or published in any manner without the written consent of Public Mutual. Public Mutual does not accept any liability, be it directly, indirectly or consequential losses or damages that may arise from any reliance based on this report. Page 13 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.