MENA Market Report - 6 March

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Monday , March 06, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets ended the session on a negative note as investors remain cautious ahead of the Fed meeting and the pace of tightening going forward, which is likely to impact the domestic fund flows in the coming weeks. March so far has moved sideways compared to the tepid performance in February, which might continue for the next couple of weeks as investors might wait for first quarter earnings and outcome of Fed meeting to take fresh positions. For the day, all the regional indexes ended in red, while Egypt, Kuwait and Bahrain were the ones that closed in green. Kuwait was up by 0.6% for the day, which was supported by buying in banking sector stocks. Egypt was the best performer as it was up by 1.5% for the day, continuing the rally post the gradual increase of tax on market transactions. UAE markets closed on a negative note as Dubai and Abu Dhabi were both down by 1.1% and 0.7% respectively for the day. The market breadth in both the indexes were skewed towards losers as three fourths of the companies declined, while the rest witnessed marginal gains or remained unchanged for the day. Saudi Arabia was down by 0.7% for the day, broad based selling pressure, especially the energy and banking sector stocks. Bahrain was marginally up by 0.1%, while Oman was down by 0.1% and Qatar was closed for the day. International Markets: At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a mixed note as Hang Seng and Shanghai were up by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively, while Nikkei was down by 0.5%. Headlines (WW) U.S. energy stocks, darlings last year, stumble in 2017 (GCC) VAT could put pressure on GCC businesses (WW) Economic Risks Mounting in US (GCC) Private sector to save GCC's $165 billion (WW) UK needs financial reserves in the tank for Brexit (GCC) GCC food & beverage consumption to reach 52mln tons in 2019 (WW) Small Firms’ Confidence in UK Plummets (AE) UAE PMI at 17-month high on higher output and demand (WW) Battle-hardened in Britain, May prepares for Brexit talks (AE) UAE insurers expect to see better earning and asset quality (WW) UK ramps up skills training to tackle productivity problem (AE) Hire Emiratis and get incentives, private firms told (WW) EU readies cash to help Ireland cut energy dependence on Brexit Britain (SA) Saudi tourism authority to loan $105.86mln in 2017 (WW) China vows new steel, coal capacity cuts to make sky blue (SA) Saudi Aramco aims to work with construction industry to overcome challenges (WW) China cuts growth goal, puts focus on reform and 'firewall' against risks (SA) Stringent regulation transforms Saudi insurance market (WW) IMF reaches deal with Ukraine paving way for next loan disbursal (EG) Signs Egypt's Economy May Be Recovering as PMI Rises (CMD) Gold loses shine as Fed rate hike looms (EG) Germany grants Egypt $500M for economic development and SME support (CMD) Titans of oil world meet in Houston after two-year price war (QA) Rents for high-end properties in Qatar fall by 10% (FX) Euro to Dollar Possibly Reversing Higher in the Coming Week (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,543.33 -1.1% -1.1% -2.4% 0.4% ˅ ˄ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,565.15 -0.7% -0.7% 0.3% 0.4% ˄ ˄ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 6,967.97 -0.7% -0.7% -0.1% -3.4% ˅ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,804.56 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 18.4% ˄ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 12,499.61 1.5% 1.5% 4.7% 1.3% ˅ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) Closed Closed Closed 0.2% 2.7% ˄ ˄ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,342.57 0.1% 0.1% -0.5% 10.0% ˄ ˄ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 5,807.81 -0.1% -0.1% 0.5% 0.4% ˅ ˄ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 208 635 551 84 230 195 83,288 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 81 176 153 43 73 61 118,449 Saudi (SASEIDX) 197 253 256 1,016 1,188 1,123 435,276 Kuwait (KWSE) 201 432 268 69 129 85 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 202 384 354 49 105 94 16,780 Closed 9 8 Closed 78 75 136,131 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1 5 3 1 3 2 20,758 Oman (MSM30) 25 19 18 13 11 10 17,296 Index Qatar (DSM) * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters ** indicates markets were closed on Sunday. 1
2. MENA Morning Report Monday , March 06, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 13.9 Previous 489.3 11.4 9.4 386.2 8.8 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.2 Current 600 13.2 11.6 11.2 12 PB 1.3 2.1 1.6 1.5 - - 0.9 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 178.1 0 106.9 87.2 1.4 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 27% 8% 18.4% 5.5% 6% 4.7% 18% 5.3% 10.0% 9% 4.1% 3.8% 4% 3.2% 2.4% 2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average 0.4% -3.4% -9% 0.0% 1.3% 0% 2.7% -18% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Monday , March 06, 2017 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close DoD % Volume Value DEYAAR DEVELOPMENT PJSC 0.59 -3.28% 14559 4317 DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET PJSC 1.36 -2.86% 10478 7192 ARABTEC HOLDING PJSC 0.88 -2.44% 17832 7872 AIR ARABIA PJSC 1.23 -2.38% 20602 12731 DUBAI ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 5.47 -2.15% 4321 12084 Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) 2 ABU DHABI NATIONAL FOR BUILDING 0.59 -9.23% 44 100 30 68 ABU DHABI SHIP BUILDING PJSC 2.66 -7.96% 530 233 9,637 23,129 RAK PROPERTIES PJSC 0.75 -2.60% 21 49 ALDAR PROPERTIES PJSC 2.34 -2.50% 4,367 2,730 NATIONAL BANK OF ABU DHABI PJSC 10.45 -2.34% 1,615 3,117 Close DoD % Volume Value AL SAMAANI FACTORY METAL 100.00 -8.05% 10 1028 14690 AL TAYYAR TRAVEL GROUP HOLDING 33.40 -5.11% 11991 411284 2244 42742 AL RAJHI COMPANY FOR COOP 45.30 -4.43% 488 22619 1365 26650 AL SAGR COOPERATIVE INSURANCE 41.00 -4.21% 1832 76751 3.38% 3282 39554 EMAAR THE ECONOMIC CITY SJSC 18.70 -4.10% 1192 22772 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) GULF CABLE AND ELECTRICAL INDUS 540.00 -3.57% 171 93 METAL AND RECYCLING CO KSCP 79.00 -11.24% 30 3 INDEPENDENT PETROLEUM GROUP 430.00 -3.37% 51 22 SULTAN CENTER FOOD PRODUCTS 70.00 -6.67% 449 33 TIJARA AND REALESTATE INVESTMENT 60.00 -3.23% 65 4 ZIMA HOLDING CO KSC 60.00 -4.76% 1122 69 KUWAIT COMPANY FOR PROCESS 184.00 -3.16% 1 0 KUWAIT REAL ESTATE HOLDING CO 44.00 -4.35% 46 2 TAAMEER REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT 32.00 -3.03% 2,605 83 AL MAL INVESTMENT COMPANY KPSC 23.50 -4.08% 3829 92 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Top Losers Close DoD % Volume Value 27.59 9.88% 1 19 NOZHA INTERNATIONAL HOSPITAL 72.21 -4.99% 1 58 NATIONAL COMPANY FOR HOUSING 22.27 9.33% 10 216 ALEXANDRIA PORTLAND CEMENT CO 6.25 -4.73% 2 14 AL EZZ DEKHEILA STEEL COMPANY 424.53 8.81% 0 44 INTERNATIONAL COMPANY 10.49 -4.64% 3 31 ABU QIR FERTILIZERS AND CHEMICAL 115.48 8.67% 46 5,048 PYRAMISA HOTELS AND RESORTS SAE 18.04 -4.09% 3 61 CAIRO FOR HOUSING AND DEV 15.67 7.33% 6 96 MARSA MARSA ALAM DEV 1.17 -3.31% 793 928 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close DoD % Volume Value Abu Dhabi Dubai Top Gainers Close DoD % Volume Value AL SALAM BANK SUDAN PLC 1.84 1.66% 65 96 TAKAFUL EMARAT INSURANCE PJSC 2.4 1.27% 5 12 ARAMEX PJSC 4.86 1.25% 3129 7840 AL RAMZ CORPORATION INVESTMENT 1.51 0.67% 10 14 ARABIAN SCANDINAVIAN INSURANCE 2.31 0.43% 448 612 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) RAS AL KHAIMAH POULTRY 3.22 15.00% 1 AL BUHAIRA NATIONAL INSURANCE 2.38 10.19% INVEST BANK PSC 2.50 8.70% AL KHAZNA INSURANCE CO PSC 0.44 2.33% 34 15 SHARJAH CEMENT AND INDUSTRIAL 1.05 1.94% 13 14 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) SAUDI ARABIAN REFINERIES CO SJSC 38.50 6.35% 1229 45905 ARAB SEA INFORMATION SYSTEMS CO 22.50 6.13% 672 ANAAM INTERNATIONAL HOLDING 19.40 3.74% AXA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 19.85 3.39% TABUK AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT 12.25 Top Gainers Kuwait Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Top Gainers Egypt NATIONAL BANK OF KUWAIT EGYPT Top Gainers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Market Remained Closed Qatar Market Remained Closed Top Losers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters 3
4. MENA Morning Report Monday , March 06, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) SA 77,600 97.00 -0.8% 6.0% 3,061 79,179 98.50 73.25 16 1.8 4.1% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 41,444 17.50 -0.8% -6.9% 693 3,301 20.20 17.15 17 3.6 4.6% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 38,230 150.70 -1.5% 0.0% 236 9,752 157.27 121.36 0 0.0 0.0% 4 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 35,200 66.00 0.4% -9.0% 140 2,469 74.00 51.00 15 2.2 6.1% 5 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 27,517 63.50 -0.8% 0.8% 1,242 21,022 67.50 48.60 13 2.0 3.5% 6 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 27,111 24.40 -0.4% 8.9% 9,341 60,774 25.80 14.30 48 1.6 2.9% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 21,493 40.30 -1.7% -5.4% 677 7,280 46.30 32.00 9 1.4 4.0% 8 Industries Qatar QSC QA 19,175 115.40 0.1% -1.8% 293 9,275 122.00 94.50 24 2.1 3.5% 9 DP World Ltd AE 17,970 21.65 1.2% 23.6% 246 1,451 22.25 15.53 18 2.1 1.4% 10 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 17,006 11.50 0.0% 0.0% 1 4 11.95 1.57 473 9.3 0.0% 11 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 16,972 13.85 -0.4% 7.8% 899 3,391 13.95 10.50 11 1.7 7.2% 12 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 16,357 66.00 -1.5% -11.7% 136 2,395 76.00 46.00 80 6.0 0.0% 13 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 14,954 10.45 -2.3% 4.6% 995 2,831 10.90 7.60 11 1.2 4.3% 14 Almarai Co SJSC SA 14,720 69.00 0.4% 0.7% 52 962 70.00 49.31 27 4.2 1.3% 15 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 14,720 7.55 -0.9% 5.9% 2,018 4,147 7.79 5.75 12 1.3 2.0% 16 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 14,039 760.00 0.0% 16.9% 1,036 2,579 760.00 550.00 15 1.4 3.9% 17 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 12,588 40.40 -0.5% 3.6% 205 2,213 43.80 27.80 118 1.7 0.0% 18 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,561 8.30 0.0% -2.2% 143 324 9.00 7.26 7 0.8 4.8% 19 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 11,467 21.50 0.2% -11.7% 123 707 25.20 15.90 9 1.0 4.4% 20 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 11,350 15.58 0.9% 3.1% 2,290 9,800 20.24 14.63 23 1.4 3.2% 21 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,871 11.00 -0.9% -7.9% 203 595 13.15 9.90 80 1.4 0.0% 22 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 10,652 620.00 1.6% 14.8% 1,517 3,081 630.00 431.82 16 1.8 0.0% 23 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 10,333 7.30 0.1% 5.8% 1,557 3,094 7.68 5.66 9 1.3 5.5% 24 Ooredoo QSC QA 9,484 107.80 0.5% 5.9% 42 1,242 116.10 81.50 16 1.6 3.2% 25 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,427 2.66 -0.7% 1.5% 1,790 1,296 3.10 2.48 18 2.2 3.8% 26 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,520 10.65 -0.5% -7.8% 773 2,195 11.80 8.55 10 0.8 6.1% 27 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 8,475 56.50 0.0% 4.6% 64 967 59.75 35.30 14 2.0 5.3% 28 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 8,394 40.75 -0.1% 8.4% 203 2,268 43.35 32.10 15 2.4 4.9% 29 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 8,260 20.65 -0.7% -17.4% 178 980 25.90 16.40 8 1.0 3.4% 30 Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co SJSC SA 7,806 70.25 -1.1% -6.3% 89 1,667 82.00 58.00 28 4.2 3.6% Company Name 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 554,695 3.3% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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