MENA Market Report - 25 October

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , October 25, 2016 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets closed the session on a mixed note after rising for the past two trading sessions. Except Saudi Arabia, rest of the regional markets witnessed subdued trading sessions with gains/losses of around 0.2% for the day. Saudi Arabia closed up by 1.0% for the day, continuing the upward trajectory for the fourth consecutive trading session. The index has remained under pressure on the back of negative news flow, however valuations were becoming very compelling for long term investors. Moreover, investors seem to be waiting for positive triggers to enter the market, which was seen in the form of mammoth bond sale, which augurs well for the broader economy. UAE markets closed on a mixed note, in line with the sentiments seen in the regional markets. Dubai was marginally up by 0.1%, while Abu Dhabi was down by 0.2% for the day, mainly dragged lower by selling pressure in the index heavyweights. Egypt was down by 0.6% for the day, continuing the downward pressure as investors seem to be worried about the shortage of essential commodities, which can lead to crisis and increase imports significantly in the next few months. Qatar was also down by 0.3% for the day, after remaining unchanged on the previous day. Kuwait and Bahrain closed up by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, while Oman was down by 0.1% for the day. International Markets: US markets closed on a positive note as Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P were all up by 0.4%, 1.0% and 0.5% respectively. European m arkets closed on a mixed note as FTSE was down by 0.5%, while DAX and CAC were up by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a mixed note as Nikkei was up by 0.7%, while Hang Seng and Shanghai were down by 0.1% each. Headlines (WW) UK could slash corporation tax to 10% if EU blocks Brexit trade deal (GCC) Middle East at centre of 5 ‘megatrends’ (WW) UK factories see stronger investment and exports, patchy orders (SA) Saudi September inflation falls to lowest this year (WW) British public's inflation fears show record jump (AE) UAE President establishes Federal Tax Authority (WW) China central bank deputy says yuan to be broadly stable (WW) German inflation could exceed 1% at year-end (AE) UAE non-oil trade reached USD 151 billion in first half of 2016 (WW) Nissan buys 34% stake in Mitsubishi Motors (EG) Egyptian military's role in economy likely to be reduced after 2-3 years (WW) Canada budget watchdog sees smaller deficits than government expects (EG) Egypt industry races to fill void as trade gap to narrow USD 11-12 billion in 2016 (WW) Mexico inflation rises in early Oct to 1-1/2 year high (EG) Egypt launches record LNG tender for 96 cargoes (CMD) India’s Gold Buying Seen Falling to Seven-Year Low: Chart (OM) Oman says to cover two-thirds of budget gap with foreign borrowing (CMD) Oil prices dip on OPEC squabbles ahead of planned production cut (OM) Oman's budget deficit for first eight months touches OMR 4.4 billion (FX) Dollar Advances to Seven-Month High on Policy Divergence Outlook (KW) Kuwaiti Minister emphasizes pan GCC economic co-operation (FX) Weaker Yen Boosts Japan Stocks for Second Day as Exporters Rise (BH) Bahrain September inflation flat at 2.6% (FI) Bond Market Shows Traders Aren't Ready for Evans's Three Hikes (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) (AE) UN approves Energy Efficiency Programme in the UAE MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,359.39 0.1% 0.6% -3.3% 6.6% ˅ ˅ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,289.35 -0.2% -0.1% -4.2% -0.4% ˅ ˅ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 5,796.85 1.0% 2.6% 3.1% -16.1% ˅ ˅ ˅ Kuwait (KWSE) 5,341.52 0.2% 0.4% -1.1% -4.9% ˅ ˅ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 8,228.13 -0.6% -0.6% 4.4% 17.4% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 10,406.27 -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.2% ˄ ˄ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,148.56 0.1% -0.3% -0.1% -5.5% ˄ ˄ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 5,531.45 -0.1% -0.6% -3.4% 2.3% ˅ ˅ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 345 251 272 131 92 97 79,407 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 52 66 74 39 36 41 115,395 Saudi (SASEIDX) 270 182 221 974 787 1,003 362,498 Index Kuwait (KWSE) 82 61 86 35 28 31 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 203 198 189 166 88 96 25,159 Qatar (DSM) 6 7 6 66 77 70 131,706 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 2 2 2 1 1 1 17,712 Oman (MSM30) 5 17 18 3 8 10 16,472 * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , October 25, 2016 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB 10.7 11.5 11.3 10.7 9.2 8.1 386.2 300 8 239.3 188.3 178.1 4 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.5 - - 0.8 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 106.9 87.2 1.3 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Dubai Average Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 27% 8% 6.6% 6% Current 489.3 13.4 12 Previous 600 5.0% 5.1% 9% 3.9% 4% 17.4% 18% 5.9% 3.6% 2.4% 6.6% 2.3% 0% 2% -4.9% -18% 0.0% 0.0% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average -0.2% -0.4% -9% -5.5% -16.1% -27% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , October 25, 2016 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE 0.51 -2.47% 396 206 33,384 ISLAMIC ARAB INSURANCE CO PSC 0.47 -1.69% 779 365 1,980 3,564 DUBAI ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 5.30 -1.49% 6,050 32,306 2.00% 1,967 1,986 DAMAC PROPERTIES DUBAI CO PSC 2.22 -1.33% 914 2,043 1.77% 3,735 4,257 EMAAR MALLS GROUP PJSC 2.63 -1.13% 4,778 12,638 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 0.83 13.70% 131 102 INTL FISH FARMING HOLDING CO PJSC 1.57 -8.19% 35 57 AL KHAZNA INSURANCE CO PSC 0.39 8.33% 8 3 NATIONAL BANK OF RAS AL KHAIMAH 4.87 -2.60% 452 2,230 NATIONAL MARINE DREDGING PSC 5.00 6.38% 25 123 ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 0.58 -1.69% 133 78 RAK PROPERTIES PJSC 0.61 3.39% 13,024 7,814 EMIRATES TELECOMM GROUP CO 19.40 -1.02% 1,020 19,893 SUDATEL TELECOM GROUP LTD 0.50 2.04% 553 274 FIRST GULF BANK PJSC 10.90 -0.91% 2,583 28,282 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) AL YAMAMAH STEEL INDUSTRIES CO 24.30 8.48% 1,260 29,426 MIDDLE EAST HEALTHCARE CO CJSC 57.25 -2.97% 161 9,337 ALUJAIN CORPORATION SJSC 14.15 7.60% 3,851 52,560 SALAMA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE 9.35 -2.60% 1,515 14,356 SAUDI COMPANY FOR HARDWARE 64.00 6.67% 120 7,444 UNITED COOPERATIVE ASSURANCE CO 12.00 -2.44% 2,882 35,021 SAUDI INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT CO 7.85 6.08% 3,783 28,847 SAUDI KAYAN PETROCHEMICAL CO 6.45 -2.27% 17,198 112,220 ARABIA INSURANCE COOPERATIVE CO 8.75 5.42% 1,488 12,689 SAUDI RE FOR COOP REINSURANCE CO 5.00 -1.96% 2,159 10,902 Top Gainers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Top Losers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) IKARUS PETROLEUM INDUSTRIES CO 31.50 8.62% 63 2 AL AMAN INVESTMENT COMPANY 42.50 -5.56% 1,318 58 INDEPENDENT PETROLEUM GROUP 370.00 7.25% 0 0 SECURITIES HOUSE KSCP 38.50 -3.75% 97 4 FUTURE KID ENTERTAINMENT 104.00 7.22% 2 0 MUSHRIF TRADING AND CONTRACT 52.00 -3.70% 5 0 KUWAIT FINANCIAL CENTRE KPSC 85.00 6.25% 2 0 KUWAIT INVESTMENT COMPANY SAK 83.00 -3.49% 30 2 MUBARRAD TRANSPORT CO KSCP 52.00 6.12% 241 12 NATIONAL RANGES CO KPSC 28.50 -3.39% 941 27 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) MEDICAL PACKAGING CO SAE 0.65 8.33% 1,797 1,123 VODAFONE EGYPT TELECOMM CO 60.54 -11.13% 0 12 ATLAS FOR LAND RECLAMATION 6.20 7.64% 104 625 MISR BENI SUEF CEMENT CO SAE 16.91 -9.28% 1 18 EGYPTIAN CO 3.48 6.10% 4 15 MISR CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES CO SAE 3.50 -7.16% 15 55 EL NASR TRANSFORMERS AND ELECT 5.31 4.94% 26 136 ADVANCED PHARMA PACKAGING CO 1.72 -7.03% 125 223 EL WADI COMPANY 6.21 3.67% 385 2,348 ARAB ALUMINUM CO SAE 8.04 -6.29% 1 12 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) QATAR INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING 43.90 6.30% 65 2,768 DLALA BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT 21.81 -3.07% 1 12 MANNAI CORPORATION QSC 79.60 2.71% 6 466 GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 34.10 -2.29% 166 5,734 UNITED DEVELOPMENT CO PSC 19.98 1.89% 26 516 INDUSTRIES QATAR QSC 105.10 -2.23% 105 11,174 QATAR ELECTRICITY AND WATER CO 213.00 0.95% 100 21,195 GULF WAREHOUSING CO QSC 56.20 -2.09% 7 396 QATAR NAVIGATION QSC 85.00 0.83% 88 7,469 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QSC 22.50 -1.75% 6 127 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) MARKA PJSC 1.16 7.41% 2 2 SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 1.02 5.37% 33,585 NATIONAL CENTRAL COOLING CO PJSC 1.84 4.55% DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 1.02 GULF NAVIGATION HOLDING PJSC 1.15 Top Gainers Abu Dhabi Dubai Top Gainers Kuwait Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Qatar Egypt Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , October 25, 2016 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 67,191 84.00 0.0% 9.4% 3,077 68,927 91.00 59.50 15 1.6 6.5% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 45,936 19.40 -1.0% 20.5% 1,020 5,388 20.20 14.90 19 3.8 4.1% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 37,293 161.70 -0.2% 10.9% 75 3,317 169.80 122.50 11 1.8 1.5% 4 Saudi Telecom Co SJSC SA 30,796 57.75 2.7% -15.4% 792 12,196 69.75 51.00 14 1.9 6.9% 5 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 23,397 54.00 0.0% 3.8% 1,951 28,090 62.75 44.70 11 1.8 2.8% 6 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 19,997 18.00 0.8% 14.3% 1,602 7,687 21.80 12.40 48 1.3 3.9% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 19,571 36.70 1.1% -28.0% 1,195 11,699 54.25 32.00 8 1.3 4.2% 8 Industries Qatar QSC QA 17,465 105.10 -2.2% -5.4% 105 3,034 124.90 88.00 16 2.0 4.8% 9 DP World Ltd AE 15,197 18.31 0.3% -9.8% 559 2,787 20.96 16.05 15 1.8 1.6% 10 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 14,868 60.00 1.7% 8.1% 1,287 20,594 68.75 40.80 0 6.0 0.0% 11 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 13,450 6.90 1.2% 21.3% 10,340 19,425 7.46 4.22 11 1.2 2.2% 12 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 13,355 10.90 -0.9% -13.8% 2,583 7,665 13.50 9.90 9 1.4 9.2% 13 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 12,276 16.85 -0.9% 6.0% 345 1,595 20.24 12.10 26 1.5 3.0% 14 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 12,227 8.62 1.1% 8.3% 163 382 10.35 6.86 10 1.0 5.2% 15 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,105 8.00 1.3% 8.1% 951 2,070 9.00 6.25 6 0.8 5.0% 16 Almarai Co SJSC SA 11,945 56.00 -0.4% -4.6% 344 5,137 66.00 40.88 22 3.5 1.5% 17 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 11,527 37.00 2.8% 11.4% 2,267 22,369 43.20 25.70 115 1.6 0.0% 18 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 10,667 570.00 -1.7% -23.3% 1,110 2,088 799.36 550.00 11 1.0 4.9% 19 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,573 10.70 -0.9% -31.8% 81 231 21.20 9.80 64 1.5 4.7% 20 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 9,705 18.20 3.4% -22.1% 987 4,792 23.55 15.90 7 0.9 4.9% 21 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,369 6.15 0.7% -6.7% 4,544 7,609 7.74 5.20 8 1.1 7.3% 22 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,319 2.63 -1.1% -4.7% 4,778 3,421 3.25 2.02 19 2.3 3.8% 23 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,596 97.70 -0.2% 30.3% 32 855 107.00 60.00 12 1.4 3.1% 24 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 8,180 470.00 1.1% -4.3% 124 193 545.45 395.45 13 1.4 3.3% 25 Emirates Integrated Telecomm Co AE 7,667 6.16 -0.8% 20.8% 846 1,420 6.99 4.89 15 3.6 7.0% 26 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 7,319 18.30 1.1% -26.1% 267 1,302 28.40 16.40 6 0.9 4.1% 27 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 7,279 9.10 1.1% -26.6% 2,102 5,099 13.25 8.55 7 0.7 7.7% 28 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 7,210 35.00 0.0% -6.9% 1,209 11,622 43.75 28.60 12 2.1 5.0% 29 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 7,132 5.30 -1.5% -6.1% 6,050 8,730 6.07 4.51 6 1.0 7.8% 30 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 6,974 46.50 -0.4% 43.1% 341 4,233 50.50 23.80 13 1.7 4.3% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 488,587 4.4% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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