MENA Market Report - 2 November

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , November 02, 2016 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets continued its positive sentiments, however the trading activity remains range bound due to lack of conviction. M oreover, there is a sense of nervousness among investors as expectation of US Fed and outcome of elections polls are sending jitters to the markets, at least for now. Regional markets are sort of ignoring all the news flow and focusing on the positives within the domestic markets, especially the Saudi market, which has been on the upward trajectory for past few sessions. For the day, the index was down by 0.3% as investors might have partly booked profits after the strong surge of around 6% seen in the previous month. However, investors want to stay invested as there is rising optimism that the central bank will continue to pull the triggers to ease the liquidity as and when needed to support the banking sector, which is an integral part of the broader economy. UAE markets closed on a mixed note as Dubai was down by 0.3%, while Abu Dhabi was higher by 0.2% for the day. Egypt closed up by 0.7% for the day, extending the gains to fourth consecutive sessions and rising by 1.3% for the week so far. The index has remained one of the most preferred markets within the region on the back of expectations of government initiatives and improve macroeconomic environment. Qatar also closed up by 0.3% for the day, second consecutive session of gains after tumbling by more than 2.0% at the start of the week. However, the previous two day's gains are not enough to recover the losses incurred on Sunday, nevertheless the market is gradually rising as investors are hunting for value stocks. Kuwait closed up by 0.2%, while Oman was down by 0.1% and Bahrain remained unchanged for the day. International Markets: US markets closed on a negative note as Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P were all down by 0.6%, 0.7% and 0.7% respectively. European markets closed in red as FTSE, DAX and CAC were all down by 0.5%, 1.3% and 0.9% respectively. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a negative note as Hang Seng, Nikkei and Shanghai were all down by 1.4%, 2.0% and 0.5% respectively. Headlines (WW) US construction spending unexpectedly falls in September (MENA) MENA inter-regional business activity reaches peak levels in last 10 years (WW) US manufacturing sector expanding, but risks remain (GCC) Common insurance system to ease labor movement in GCC countries (WW) UK factories keep up strong growth, inflation pressure builds (GCC) Turkish companies eye construction projects in Gulf (WW) China central bank injects USD 112.8 billion in October via policy tools (WW) Canadian economic growth slows in Aug, goods sectors gain (SA) New Saudi financial minister says confident in economic vision despite challenges (WW) German panel of economic experts lowers 2017 growth forecast (AE) No plans to tax individuals, UAE finance ministry says (WW) Australia central bank holds rates, talks up economy (AE) UAE, Qatar seek stronger bilateral economic, trade relations (WW) India factory PMI jumps in Oct to highest since Dec 2014 (EG) Egypt's Supply Ministry Raises Subsidized Sugar Prices By 40% Amid Shortage (CMD) Gold steady ahead of Fed meeting outcome (EG) Egypt launches tourism promotion campaign in Rome to lure Italians back (CMD) Oil ends down but off lows, then slides on API report (QA) Qatar shifts some state-run health, education services to private sector (FX) Dollar edges up as Fed, US jobs data awaited (QA) Qatar leads Middle East in leading youth to cyber careers (FX) Pound sterling ‘likely to plunge to record low once Article 50 is triggered’ (JO) Jordan, Canada agree to take ties to new level (FI) US Government Bonds Rebound on Election Uncertainty (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) (AE) UAE, a thriving hub for business and industry: LinkedIn MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,322.45 -0.3% 0.1% -0.3% 5.4% ˅ ˅ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,307.39 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% ˅ ˅ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 5,997.03 -0.3% 1.0% -0.3% -13.2% ˄ ˅ ˅ Kuwait (KWSE) 5,411.63 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% -3.6% ˄ ˅ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 8,447.76 0.7% 1.3% 0.7% 20.6% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 10,201.90 0.3% -1.6% 0.3% -2.2% ˅ ˅ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,149.12 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% -5.5% ˄ ˄ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 5,477.70 -0.1% -0.4% -0.1% 1.3% ˅ ˅ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 284 265 271 124 95 95 78,416 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 125 68 72 40 36 40 115,040 Saudi (SASEIDX) 216 185 211 849 779 946 377,264 Kuwait (KWSE) 110 66 84 28 32 32 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 266 192 188 374 104 104 25,590 Qatar (DSM) 8 7 6 88 78 69 129,024 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 0 2 2 0 1 1 17,721 Oman (MSM30) 8 17 17 6 8 9 16,308 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , November 02, 2016 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB 11.7 10.7 10.8 9.2 8.1 386.2 300 8 239.3 188.3 178.1 4 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.5 - - 0.8 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 106.9 87.2 1.3 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 8% 6% Current 489.3 13.3 11.9 12 Previous 600 36% 27% 5.9% 5.0% 5.4% 4.9% 4.0% 4% 20.6% 18% 3.4% 9% 5.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0% 2.4% -9% 2% 0.0% 0.0% 0% -2.2% -3.6% -18% -5.5% -13.2% -27% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , November 02, 2016 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) 5 EMAAR PROPERTIES PJSC 6.86 -1.58% 8,795 60,820 30,409 21,895 EMIRATES NBD BANK PJSC 7.90 -1.25% 6,500 51,675 2.50% 5 7 DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 1.03 -0.96% 673 697 2.62 1.95% 6,252 16,223 DUBAI ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 5.19 -0.95% 4,833 25,206 1.17 1.74% 5,427 6,295 SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 1.10 -0.90% 11,154 12,325 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 1.02 6.25% 281 278 EMIRATES DRIVING CO PJSC 6.44 -9.93% 2 15 MANAZEL REAL ESTATE PJSC 0.49 4.26% 3,785 1,817 SHARJAH ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 1.46 -3.95% 87 129 ESHRAQ PROPERTIES COMPANY PJSC 0.82 3.80% 97,055 78,129 UNITED ARAB BANK PJSC 1.90 -2.56% 13 25 UNION CEMENT CO PSC 1.07 1.90% 9 9 INTERNATIONAL FISH FARMING 1.53 -1.92% 2 4 NATIONAL BANK OF RAS AL KHAIMAH 5.09 1.80% 2 10 ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 0.58 -1.69% 194 113 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) SAUDI FISHERIES CO SJSC 10.35 9.52% 1,295 12,817 MOUWASAT MEDICAL SERVICES CO 127.25 -3.96% 35 4,553 AL SORAYAI TRADING AND INDUS 7.85 4.67% 1,837 14,102 AXA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 12.50 -3.47% 1,069 13,601 ABDULLAH ABDUL MOHSIN 8.10 4.52% 1,338 10,607 TRADE UNION COOPERATIVE 11.90 -3.25% 1,076 13,020 TABUK AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT 8.85 2.91% 3,270 28,535 WAFRAH FOR INDUSTRY 15.80 -3.07% 970 15,570 ASH SHARQIYAH DEVELOPMENT CO 26.70 2.69% 1,026 27,037 AL TAYYAR TRAVEL GROUP HOLDING 30.00 -2.91% 2,893 88,095 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Top Losers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) AL MUDON INTL REAL ESTATE 28.50 7.55% 6,062 167 KUWAIT AND MIDDLE EAST FINANCIAL 21.50 -6.52% 18 0 HOUSING FINANCE CO KSCP 52.00 7.22% 7,816 393 FIRST TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO KPSC 47.00 -5.05% 24 1 ARKAN AL KUWAIT REAL ESTATE 80.00 6.67% 5 0 AL MAL INVESTMENT COMPANY KPSC 20.00 -4.76% 7,404 152 HEAVY ENGINEERING INDUSTRIES 158.00 5.33% 0 0 KUWAIT INSURANCE COMPANY SAKP 230.00 -4.17% 10 2 MENA REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 20.00 5.26% 5 0 KUWAIT FINANCE AND INVESTMENT 35.00 -4.11% 5 0 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) SUEZ CANAL COMPANY FOR TECH 13.35 9.97% 2 25 ALEXANDRIA MEDICAL SERVICES CO 21.61 -9.85% 1 12 SHARKIA NATIONAL COMPANY 3.06 8.90% 10 29 EGYPT ALUMINUM CO SAE 11.04 -8.99% 4 52 MEDICAL PACKAGING CO SAE 0.77 8.45% 4,152 3,073 SIDI KERIR PETROCHEMICALS CO SAE 12.95 -6.63% 2,927 39,257 EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES SAE 10.01 8.10% 52 497 MOHANDES INSURANCE CO SAE 19.16 -5.71% 1 12 EGYPTIANS ABROAD FOR INVEST 2.85 7.95% 213 586 SOUTH CAIRO AND GIZA MILLS 11.00 -5.01% 5 57 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) EZDAN HOLDING GROUP QSC 16.25 3.50% 616 9,834 QATAR NAVIGATION QSC 90.00 -4.26% 1 108 QATARI INVESTORS GROUP QSC 59.50 2.59% 2,401 141,050 AL MEERA CONSUMER GOODS CO 178.70 -4.18% 137 24,940 ISLAMIC HOLDING GROUP QSC 58.40 2.28% 7 414 ALIJARAH HOLDING CO QSC 14.89 -3.94% 247 3,751 COMMERCIAL BANK QSC 36.45 2.10% 115 4,136 BARWA REAL ESTATE CO QSC 30.75 -3.76% 510 15,994 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QSC 21.40 1.90% 0 1 QATAR OMAN INVESTMENT CO QSC 10.10 -2.79% 2 20 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) NATIONAL CEMENT CO PSC 3.20 11.11% 2 UNION PROPERTIES PJSC 0.73 2.82% AL SALAM BANK SUDAN PLC 1.23 EMAAR MALLS GROUP PJSC GULF NAVIGATION HOLDING PJSC Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Dubai Top Gainers Kuwait Top Gainers Egypt Top Gainers Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , November 02, 2016 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 67,196 84.00 -0.9% 9.4% 2,455 54,991 91.00 59.50 15 1.6 6.5% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 44,515 18.80 -0.3% 16.8% 1,066 5,458 20.20 14.95 18 3.8 4.3% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 37,103 160.90 0.6% 10.3% 96 4,241 169.80 122.50 11 1.8 1.5% 4 Saudi Telecom Co SJSC SA 31,465 59.00 1.7% -13.6% 1,005 15,811 69.75 51.00 14 2.0 6.8% 5 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 24,590 56.75 0.0% 9.1% 1,357 20,536 62.75 44.70 11 1.9 2.6% 6 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 23,359 43.80 0.0% -14.1% 2,219 25,917 54.25 32.00 10 1.5 3.5% 7 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 20,221 18.20 0.0% 15.6% 837 4,064 21.80 12.40 25 1.2 3.8% 8 Industries Qatar QSC QA 17,196 103.50 1.5% -6.8% 81 2,300 121.80 88.00 16 1.9 4.8% 9 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 15,365 62.00 1.6% 11.7% 727 12,019 68.75 40.80 0 6.2 0.0% 10 DP World Ltd AE 14,899 17.95 0.0% -11.6% 42 206 20.41 16.05 15 1.7 1.7% 11 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 14,151 11.55 0.4% -8.7% 850 2,673 13.50 9.90 8 1.4 8.7% 12 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 13,372 6.86 -1.6% 20.6% 8,795 16,429 7.46 4.22 11 1.2 2.2% 13 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 12,624 8.90 0.6% 11.8% 622 1,508 10.35 6.86 10 1.0 5.1% 14 Almarai Co SJSC SA 12,426 58.25 -0.4% -0.7% 873 13,556 66.00 40.88 23 3.6 1.5% 15 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 12,120 38.90 0.3% 17.2% 2,470 25,622 43.20 25.70 120 1.6 0.0% 16 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 11,954 7.90 -1.3% 6.8% 6,500 13,982 8.89 6.25 6 0.8 5.1% 17 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 11,841 16.25 3.5% 2.2% 616 2,748 20.24 12.10 25 1.4 3.1% 18 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 10,974 590.00 0.0% -20.7% 809 1,576 799.36 550.00 12 1.0 4.7% 19 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 10,346 19.40 -2.5% -16.9% 1,101 5,698 23.55 15.90 7 1.0 4.6% 20 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,327 10.45 0.5% -33.4% 59 164 21.20 9.80 76 1.4 4.8% 21 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,369 6.15 0.2% -6.7% 1,106 1,852 7.36 5.20 8 1.1 7.3% 22 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,284 2.62 1.9% -5.1% 6,252 4,460 3.25 2.02 19 2.3 3.8% 23 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,421 95.70 -1.3% 27.6% 88 2,306 107.00 60.00 14 1.3 3.1% 24 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 8,217 475.00 0.0% -3.2% 1,189 1,866 545.45 395.45 13 1.4 3.3% 25 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 7,960 9.95 -0.5% -19.8% 1,365 3,621 12.85 8.55 8 0.8 7.0% 26 Emirates Integrated Telecomm Co AE 7,530 6.05 -0.5% 18.6% 203 334 6.99 4.89 15 3.5 7.1% 27 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 7,400 18.50 -2.6% -25.3% 434 2,142 28.40 16.40 7 0.9 4.1% 28 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 7,165 22.30 -0.2% -20.4% 858 5,101 30.00 18.00 7 0.9 4.7% 29 Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co SJSC SA 7,055 63.50 1.2% -23.3% 126 2,130 88.25 58.00 23 4.0 9.4% 30 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 7,054 34.25 -1.0% -8.9% 269 2,532 42.85 28.60 12 2.1 5.1% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 495,501 4.3% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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