MENA Market Report - 21 November

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1. MENA Morning Report Monday , November 21, 2016 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets started the week on a mixed note, in line with the subdued sentiments seen in the global markets. Equity markets are jumping onto different events and hoping for positive developments, which are basically holding the markets from a downward slide. Hence, investors should be prudent and buy into beaten down fundamentally strong companies. Further, oil prices inching above the $46 mark again on the back of hopes of OPEC cut production with the help of its members should also marginally ease funding pressures on regional authorities. For the day, Abu Dhabi was the worst performing index among the regional peers after the leading banks denied any rumor talks which were ushered in the markets in the previous week. Saudi Arabia was down by 0.9% for the day, which could be attributed to profit booking, especially the banking sector stocks after sharp rise in the past two to three weeks. Egypt was up by 0.5% for the day, reaching an eight year high on the back of fundamental improvement and hopes of further reforms to stimulate economic activity and restore investor confidence. Dubai closed marginally lower by 0.2% for the day, which was mainly dragged lower by 0.3% decline in Emaar Properties. Qatar closed up marginally by 0.1% for the day, however it continues to remain the worst performing index among the regional peers for the year 2016. Oman and Bahrain were up by 0.5% and 0.1% respectively, while Kuwait was down by 0.1% for the day. International Markets: At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a positive note as Hang Seng, Nikkei and Shanghai were all u p by 0.3%, 0.6% and 0.9% respectively. Headlines (WW) UK's Hammond says budget options constrained by high debt (SA) Saudi makes SAR 40 billion of delayed payments to private sector (WW) Negative Rates Are Failing to Halt Savings Obsession in Europe (SA) Large Saudi bank cuts money quote; rates may fall back below repo (WW) British PM May to unveil industrial strategy to spur 'ambitious' ideas (SA) Saudi Arabia pays USD 10.66 billion owed to contractors (WW) Volkswagen to cut 30,000 jobs at VW brand by 2020 (WW) German Q3 slowdown expected after strong start of year (AE) Dubai Properties launches affordable housing aimed at mid-level staff (WW) Japan Imports Continue Decline, Exports Fall More Than Forecast (AE) US anti-dumping charge on UAE steel pipe imports, indicating protectionist times (WW) Japanese private equity emerging from its torpor (AE) Abu Dhabi rents fall amid economic uncertainty (WW) Japan PM Abe says Tokyo will continue promoting free trade (EG) Egypt to issue USD 1.6 billion 1-year Treasury bill (CMD) Oil may rise to USD 55 if all producers cooperate (QA) Qatar's exports of transport, tourism services USD 14.8 billion in 2015 (CMD) Gold worth USD 2.1 billion imported within nine days of demonetisation (QA) Qatar, UAE pitched on PHL economic zones (FX) Egypt's pound weakens as dollar demand surges, interest rates steady (OM) Value added tax to add USD 1 billion to Oman government's coffer (FX) Dollar stands tall, hoisted by higher US yields on Trump bets (KW) Kuwait to develop five islands with foreign investors (FI) Corporate debt returns lure investors back to bond market (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) (AE) Dubai, India trade stood at about USD 38 billion in H1 2016 MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,301.66 -0.2% -0.2% Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,221.01 -1.7% -1.7% -0.9% 4.8% ˅ ˅ ˄ -1.8% -2.0% ˅ ˅ ˅ Saudi (SASEIDX) 6,570.49 -0.9% -0.9% 9.3% -4.9% ˄ ˅ ˅ Kuwait (KWSE) 5,507.31 -0.1% -0.1% Egypt (EGX30) 11,277.47 0.5% 0.5% 2.0% -1.9% ˄ ˄ ˄ 34.5% 61.0% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 9,780.80 0.1% 0.1% Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,181.00 0.1% 0.1% -3.9% -6.2% ˅ ˅ ˄ 2.8% -2.9% ˄ ˄ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 5,521.03 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 2.1% ˅ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 965 359 311 293 122 109 78,133 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 373 115 93 115 45 45 111,602 Saudi (SASEIDX) 250 219 217 990 881 932 406,461 Kuwait (KWSE) 151 86 88 54 35 34 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 623 253 230 99 65 60 24,637 Qatar (DSM) 3 7 6 22 74 69 123,882 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1 2 2 1 1 1 18,223 Oman (MSM30) 9 15 16 4 8 8 16,374 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Monday , November 21, 2016 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 14.9 16 12.9 PB 9.1 386.2 10.1 8.6 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.2 Current 489.3 12.8 11.4 12 1.3 2.0 1.5 1.4 - - 0.8 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 178.1 106.9 87.2 1.3 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi 6.0% 5.4% 5.0% 4.5% 4.1% 4% 3.4% 1.9% 2% 0.0% 0.0% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 8% 6% Previous 600 Qatar Bahrain Oman Average 72% 63% 54% 45% 36% 27% 18% 9% 0% -9% -18% -27% 61.0% 4.8% Dubai 2.1% -2.0% -4.9% -1.9% Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available -6.2% -2.9% Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Monday , November 21, 2016 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ISLAMIC ARAB INSURANCE CO PSC 0.47 -2.10% 10,154 4,793 DXB ENTERTAINMENTS PJSC 1.52 -1.94% 28,437 43,651 ARAMEX PJSC 3.93 -1.75% 150 595 9,663 AMANAT HOLDINGS PJSC 0.93 -1.60% 46,945 43,777 35,123 TAKAFUL EMARAT INSURANCE PJSC 2.64 -1.49% 31 84 Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) AXA GREEN CRESCENT INSURANCE CO 0.65 -9.72% 33 22 304,402 UNION NATIONAL BANK PJSC 4.23 -5.16% 175 762 28,866 24,824 INTERNATIONAL FISH FARMING 1.39 -4.14% 28 40 4,094 2,067 UNITED ARAB BANK PJSC 1.70 -3.95% 150 260 1.34% 107 160 MANAZEL REAL ESTATE PJSC 0.52 -3.70% 32,142 17,035 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) AL RAJHI COMPANY FOR COOP 29.50 9.67% 819 23,098 SAUDI INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEM 14.90 -5.70% 959 14,723 QASSIM AGRICULTURE CO SJSC 8.85 8.59% 8,627 73,333 HERFY FOOD SERVICES CO SJSC 71.00 -3.73% 115 8,325 UNITED COOPERATIVE ASSURANCE CO 13.35 8.54% 3,420 43,861 NATIONAL SHIPPING COMPANY 39.00 -3.70% 1,469 58,409 TRADE UNION COOPERATIVE 13.50 6.72% 2,369 30,978 BANQUE SAUDI FRANSI SJSC 26.10 -3.69% 156 4,154 ASH SHARQIYAH DEVELOPMENT CO 32.10 6.64% 1,064 33,091 NATIONAL INDUSTRIALIZATION CO JSC 16.30 -3.55% 584 9,701 Close DoD % Volume Value Top Losers Close DoD % Volume Value AWJ HOLDING CO KSCP 59.00 9.26% 1,242 70 OSOS HOLDING GROUP CO KSCP 260.00 -8.56% 24 7 YIACO MEDICAL COMPANY KPSC 315.00 8.62% 2,032 615 AMAR FINANCE AND LEASING 54.00 -8.47% 20 1 GULF FRANCHISING HOLDING CO KSCP 31.50 6.78% 0 0 SAFAT GLOBAL HOLDING CO 30.00 -7.69% 5,444 170 NAFAIS HOLDING COMPANY KSCP 182.00 5.81% 9 2 NATIONAL MOBILE TELECOMM 1100.00 -5.17% 1 1 OULA FUEL MARKETING CO KSCP 118.00 5.36% 196 23 COMBINED GROUP CONTRACTING 610.00 -4.69% 10 6 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) 0.16 14.29% 1,789 268 EGYPT FREE SHOPS CO SAE 3.35 -7.20% 6 19 LECICO EGYPT SAE 3.39 9.71% 487 1,577 JUHAYNA FOOD INDUSTRIES SAE 5.60 -6.51% 1,940 11,245 NATIONAL COMPANY FOR HOUSING 14.80 9.63% 3 50 EL EBOUR COMPANY REAL ESTATE 3.22 -6.40% 8 27 ORASCOM HOTELS 5.80 7.21% 1,247 6,992 DELTA INSURANCE CO SAE 6.13 -5.11% 6 36 EGYPT KUWAIT HOLDING CO SAE 0.60 7.14% 1,938 1,124 MOHANDES INSURANCE CO SAE 19.95 -5.00% 5 101 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) AL KHALIJ COMMERCIAL BANK QSC 17.99 4.53% 11 192 WIDAM FOOD CO QSC 60.60 -2.26% 8 494 AL MEERA CONSUMER GOODS CO 165.40 2.10% 55 8,964 QATAR NATIONAL CEMENT CO QSC 82.30 -1.67% 3 261 AAMAL CO QSC 13.32 1.68% 11 148 UNITED DEVELOPMENT CO PSC 18.75 -1.06% 59 1,121 ALIJARAH HOLDING CO QSC 14.12 1.29% 8 114 QATAR INTERNATIONAL ISLAMIC 60.70 -0.98% 16 970 QATARI GERMAN COMPANY 10.10 1.20% 0 1 MANNAI CORPORATION QSC 76.50 -0.65% 4 269 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 1.58 7.48% 20,363 31,054 GULF GENERAL INVESTMENT CO PSC 0.50 3.51% 14,418 7,116 DRAKE AND SCULL INTERNATIONAL 0.53 2.32% 332,571 174,267 DAMAC PROPERTIES DUBAI CO PSC 2.13 1.43% 4,569 AMLAK FINANCE PJSC 1.24 0.81% 28,440 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ABU DHABI NATIONAL INSURANCE CO 2.41 14.76% 6 14 ESHRAQ PROPERTIES COMPANY PJSC 1.14 9.62% 279,268 METHAQ TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO 0.88 4.76% ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 0.51 2.00% SHARJAH ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 1.51 Abu Dhabi Dubai Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Kuwait Top Gainers Top Gainers Egypt AL ARAFA FOR INVESTMENT Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Monday , November 21, 2016 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 68,807 86.00 0.3% 12.1% 2,547 58,401 91.00 59.50 16 1.6 6.4% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 41,559 17.55 -2.2% 9.0% 667 3,186 20.20 14.95 17 3.6 4.6% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 35,214 152.70 0.4% 4.7% 103 4,308 169.80 122.50 11 1.7 1.6% 4 Saudi Telecom Co SJSC SA 34,804 65.25 -3.3% -4.4% 919 15,983 69.75 51.00 16 2.2 6.1% 5 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 27,086 62.50 0.0% 20.2% 820 13,665 64.00 44.70 13 2.0 2.4% 6 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 21,496 40.30 -1.7% -21.0% 857 9,212 54.25 32.00 9 1.4 3.8% 7 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 20,057 18.05 0.0% 14.6% 1,459 7,023 21.80 12.40 25 1.2 3.9% 8 Industries Qatar QSC QA 17,297 104.10 0.1% -6.3% 47 1,356 119.90 88.00 19 1.9 4.8% 9 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 16,545 66.75 -1.8% 20.3% 337 5,999 72.25 40.80 107 6.2 0.0% 10 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 14,275 11.65 -2.9% -7.9% 361 1,146 13.50 9.90 9 1.5 8.6% 11 DP World Ltd AE 13,654 16.45 -2.1% -19.0% 18 82 20.30 16.00 14 1.6 1.8% 12 Almarai Co SJSC SA 13,175 61.75 1.2% 5.2% 103 1,691 66.00 40.88 24 3.9 1.4% 13 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 12,964 6.65 -0.3% 16.9% 3,963 7,176 7.46 4.22 10 1.2 2.3% 14 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 12,441 8.77 -1.0% 10.2% 585 1,397 10.35 6.86 10 1.0 5.1% 15 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 12,215 22.90 -0.7% -1.9% 210 1,280 23.55 15.90 9 1.1 3.9% 16 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,106 8.00 -0.9% 8.1% 455 991 8.89 6.25 6 0.8 5.0% 17 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 11,935 38.30 -1.5% 15.4% 532 5,435 43.20 25.70 118 1.6 0.0% 18 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 11,850 640.00 0.0% -13.9% 1,669 3,505 780.77 550.00 13 1.1 4.4% 19 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 10,964 15.05 0.7% -5.3% 589 2,433 20.24 12.10 23 1.3 3.3% 20 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,378 10.50 0.0% -33.1% 155 434 21.20 9.80 77 1.4 4.8% 21 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 9,441 23.60 -1.7% -4.6% 122 765 28.40 16.40 8 1.2 3.2% 22 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,072 2.56 -0.4% -7.2% 1,274 888 3.10 2.02 18 2.1 3.9% 23 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 8,959 5.88 -2.6% -10.8% 625 1,000 7.36 5.20 7 1.0 7.7% 24 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 8,955 520.00 0.0% 5.9% 3,354 5,722 536.36 395.45 14 1.5 3.0% 25 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,881 11.10 -0.4% -10.5% 1,794 5,310 12.75 8.55 9 0.9 6.3% 26 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 8,388 26.10 -3.7% -6.8% 156 1,087 28.30 18.00 8 1.1 4.0% 27 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,102 92.10 0.2% 22.8% 5 137 107.00 60.00 13 1.3 3.3% 28 Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co SJSC SA 7,695 69.25 1.5% 0.0% 228 4,203 88.25 58.00 0 0.0 0.0% 29 Emirates Integrated Telecomm Co. AE 7,344 5.90 -0.8% 15.7% 354 569 6.99 4.95 15 3.5 7.3% 30 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 7,036 46.90 -0.4% 44.3% 433 5,414 50.50 23.80 13 1.7 4.3% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 502,693 4.1% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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