MENA Market Report - 2 May

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , May 02, 2018 Overview Regional Markets: MENA region ended the session on a negative note as three out of the eight indexes ended in red, one in green, two unchanged and two closed for the day. Investors are a bit cautious ahead of the outcome of the Fed meeting, which is likely to provide important cues for the remainder of the year, especially the direction of the Fed's monetary policy. For the regional markets, earnings will be an important catalyst as it allows investors to forecast the earnings and accordingly make adjustments to their existing portfolios. For the day, Dubai was the worst performer with losses of 1.1% during the session, which was mostly dragged lower by DSI and Emaar. Dubai has continued to remain under pressure as the index has lost around 10% during the year, partly could be due to investors moving into Saudi Arabia to capitalize on the positive developments. Abu Dhabi closed marginally higher as it was up by 0.1% for the day, however remains under pressure during the week. Saudi Arabia closed on a negative note as it was down by 0.6% for the day, extending the losses to 1.1% for the week. The results from one of the largest banks, Al Rajhi was not able to lift the sentiments as earnings were more or less in line with estimates. Qatar was down by 1.1% for the day, which dragged the overall weekly performance into negative territory with losses of 0.8%. Kuwait and Oman were unchanged, while Egypt and Bahrain were closed for the day. International Markets: US markets ended on a mixed note as S&P and Nasdaq were up by 0.3% and 0.9% respectively, while DJIA was down by 0.3% for the day. European markets closed on a positive note as FTSE was up by 0.2%, while CAC and DAX were closed for the day. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a negative note as Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai were down by 0.3%, 0.6% and 0.02% respectively. Headlines (WW) US economy hits milestone as Fed tries to keep growth rolling (GCC) Oil to boost Gulf trade surpluses but growth will stay modest (WW) US factory activity slows further, tariff concerns grow (GCC) GCC corporate earnings grew by 16% in 2017 (WW) US Fed likely to leave rates alone for now (SA) Saudi GDP up 2.8% at end of 2017 (WW) Study shows tariffs on China would hurt US jobs, economy (SA) Saudi interbank rate is now the highest in nine years (WW) China gives little sign of slowdown as PMIs hold up (AE) UAE ministry announces 3,000 opportunities for job seekers (WW) UK factory growth sinks to 17-month low in April (AE) UAE-Japan non-oil trade hits USD 15bn in 2017 (WW) Japan final April factory PMI points to domestic bounce, export weakness (EG) Decline in inflation over past 4 months reflects improved economy (WW) Japan, India agree to boost energy cooperation (EG) Egypt tightens curbs on ration system (CMD) Oil falls on firmer dollar but Iran sanction fears limit losses (EG) Egypt confident USD 23bn debt inflows will stay put (CMD) Gold hits four-month low as dollar climbs before Fed meeting (QA) Qatar PMI points to economic resilience (FX) Dollar turns positive for 2018 before Fed meeting (OM) Oman real estate market rebounds in Q1 2018 (FX) Sterling falls through USD 1.36 as model funds cut bets (OM) Technology seen transforming Oman’s banking sector (FI) Yields rise ahead of US refunding announcement (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,030.75 -1.1% -0.4% -1.1% -10.1% ˅ ˅ ˅ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,673.31 0.1% -0.5% 0.1% 6.2% ˄ ˄ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 8,158.06 -0.6% -1.1% -0.6% 12.9% ˄ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 4,836.08 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.3% ˄ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) Closed Closed -0.4% n.a. 21.8% ˄ ˄ ˄ 9,014.32 -1.1% -0.8% -1.1% 5.8% ˄ ˄ ˄ Closed Closed -0.4% n.a. -5.5% ˅ ˅ ˄ 4,731.27 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% -7.2% ˅ ˅ ˅ Qatar (DSM) Bahrain (BHSEIDX) Oman (MSM30) MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 174 157 203 55 67 90 82,355 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 82 69 74 31 36 37 1,35,575 Saudi (SASEIDX) 198 182 191 1,336 1,118 1,054 5,15,459 Kuwait (KWSE) 43 56 72 9 196 125 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) Closed 374 339 Closed 115 100 31,893 11 11 11 61 81 84 1,07,619 Closed 6 6 Closed 3 3 20,921 31 21 19 10 13 12 13,258 Index Qatar (DSM) Bahrain (BHSEIDX) Oman (MSM30) * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , May 02, 2018 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios 12.9 11.2 12 8 PE (+ve.eps) 15.0 16 12.2 PB 8.1 1.0 1.3 2.7 149.8 109.8 1.2 - - 0.8 0.8 Bahrain Oman - 88.3 88.2 62.6 1.4 0 294.2 255.5 300 1.8 Current 11.2 7.6 4 Previous 600 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Dubai Average Abu Dhabi Saudi 5.6% 5.9% 5.0% 6.0% 4.8% 4.2% 3.8% 4% 2.4% 2% 0.0% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 8% 6% Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Average 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% 21.8% 12.9% 5.8% 6.2% 0.3% -5.5% -7.2% -10.1% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , May 02, 2018 Abu Dhabi Dubai Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ARAB INSURANCE GROUP BSC 1.35 -9.63% 0 2 DAMAC PROPERTIES DUBAI CO PSC 2.77 -6.86% 0 3,193 ARABTEC HOLDING PJSC 2.04 -4.41% 4,766 9,947 3,580 AL SALAM BANK SUDAN PLC 1.61 -4.35% 84 138 5,014 DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE & REINS 0.72 -4.32% 1,735 1,272 Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ABU DHABI NATIONAL FOR BUILDING 0.64 -9.38% 1,125 758 4,518 INVEST BANK PSC 2.20 -2.73% 10 23 1,838 1,204 GULF PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES 2.40 -2.50% 24 58 3,811 2,687 DANA GAS PJSC 0.99 -2.02% 48,982 48,992 1.30% 480 367 NATIONAL BANK OF FUJAIRAH PJSC 2.70 -1.85% 7,182 19,575 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) AL KATHIRI HOLDING CO 27.55 19.78% 4 91 SAUDI CERAMIC CO SJSC 23.80 -4.62% 652 15,893 AL SAGR COOPERATIVE INSURANCE 24.46 6.91% 3,818 90,382 UNITED INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT 37.50 -4.40% 395 15,160 CHUBB ARABIA COOPERATIVE INS 23.60 5.51% 1,137 26,124 DAR AL ARKAN REAL ESTATE DEVELOP 13.96 -3.58% 26,739 3,80,215 RABIGH REFINING AND PETROCHEM 27.50 4.91% 6,379 1,71,312 SAUDI MARKETING COMPANY SJSC 24.70 -3.40% 224 5,628 SALAMA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE 25.75 2.91% 186 4,725 SAUDI STEEL PIPES CO SJSC 21.22 -2.83% 200 4,312 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) GULF INVESTMENT HOUSE KSCP 17.50 19.43% 3,766 61 PALMS AGRO PRODUCTION CO KSCP 80.00 -68.75% 5 1 BAYAN INVESTMENT CO KSCP 32.00 12.50% 614 19 MENA REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 48.60 -43.83% 383 26 22.70 -33.48% 7 0 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) EMAAR PROPERTIES PJSC 5.65 0.71% 0 18,477 EMAAR MALLS PJSC 2.22 0.45% 0 6,951 EMIRATES INTEGRATED TELECO 4.90 0.41% 201 985 EMAAR DEVELOPMENT PJSC 5.55 0.18% 646 UNION PROPERTIES PJSC 0.81 0.12% 6,218 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) RAS AL KHAIMAH FOR WHITE CEMENT 0.89 3.37% 18 16 ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 1.36 2.94% 3,370 RAK PROPERTIES PJSC 0.66 1.52% ESHRAQ PROPERTIES COMPANY PJSC 0.71 1.41% METHAQ TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO 0.77 Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Kuwait Top Gainers Top Losers Top Losers AMWAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMEN 46.90 10.87% 129 6 EFFECT REAL ESTATE COMPANY KPSC HILAL CEMENT COMPANY KSCP 67.00 10.00% 7 0 GULF FRANCHISING HOLDING CO KSCP 30.00 -16.67% 64 2 AAYAN REAL ESTATE COMPANY KSCP 56.40 7.98% 20 1 TAMKEEN HOLDING CO 16.70 -10.18% 48 1 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Top Gainers Market Remained Closed Qatar Egypt Market Remained Closed Top Losers Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) QATAR GENERAL INSURANCE & REINS 47.00 4.26% 0 1 EZDAN HOLDING GROUP QSC 11.21 -6.87% 356 4,139 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QPSC 10.80 1.85% 2 25 MESAIEED PETROCHEMICAL HOLDING 17.57 -5.29% 3,284 59,314 MEDICARE GROUP QSC 66.55 1.41% 24 1,592 AAMAL CO QPSC 11.09 -4.87% 1,063 12,090 ZAD HOLDING CO SAQ 70.00 0.71% 22 1,552 AHLI BANK QSC 31.15 -3.69% 20 635 1,479 QATAR INTERNATIONAL ISLAMIC BNK 56.80 -3.13% 14 835 WIDAM FOOD CO QSC Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters 63.00 0.62% 24 Value (QAR ‘000) Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , May 02, 2018 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 91,360 114.20 -0.3% 12.2% 10,573 3,21,980 123.80 94.75 19 2.1 3.7% 2 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 44,213 82.90 0.2% 20.8% 359 7,937 86.00 65.10 16 2.6 4.8% 3 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 40,728 17.20 0.3% -1.7% 177 830 18.85 15.75 17 3.5 4.7% 4 Qatar National Bank QPSC QA 37,847 149.15 -1.2% 18.4% 81 3,304 159.00 115.01 10 1.9 4.0% 5 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 36,940 12.45 0.4% 21.5% 944 3,199 12.65 10.05 13 1.4 5.6% 6 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 35,787 67.10 -0.3% 21.8% 395 7,076 68.60 38.00 14 2.1 2.5% 7 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp Ltd SA 35,707 82.40 -2.0% 27.6% 3,797 83,428 85.60 61.00 15 2.4 4.9% 8 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 25,066 22.56 -1.7% 7.1% 1,611 9,690 26.05 19.76 14 1.3 3.1% 9 DP World Ltd AE 19,082 22.99 3.3% -8.0% 118 738 27.06 20.56 16 1.8 1.8% 10 Industries Qatar QSC QA 18,615 112.00 0.0% 15.5% 74 2,267 115.00 85.00 19 2.1 4.5% 11 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 17,574 56.40 -1.1% 8.3% 250 3,762 58.70 39.50 92 2.5 0.0% 12 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 16,267 10.75 -0.5% 31.1% 1,223 3,581 11.00 7.95 7 1.0 3.7% 13 Almarai Co SJSC SA 15,867 59.50 -0.8% 10.6% 533 8,456 78.64 50.00 28 4.0 1.3% 14 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 15,493 29.05 -0.2% 23.5% 1,213 9,396 29.60 20.50 12 1.3 5.2% 15 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 15,368 744.00 -0.3% 7.3% 4,946 12,233 761.90 619.05 14 1.5 3.7% 16 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 14,046 9.50 0.0% -3.1% 1 1 10.00 4.90 75 7.9 0.0% 17 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 13,060 32.65 -0.2% 20.9% 213 1,852 33.50 21.55 12 1.5 4.3% 18 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 11,995 48.40 -0.6% -18.1% 1,204 15,543 75.60 45.00 - 4.7 0.0% 19 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 11,888 14.86 -0.9% 18.1% 440 1,743 15.36 10.10 11 1.2 4.9% 20 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 11,092 5.69 0.7% -10.8% 3,282 5,084 8.23 5.27 7 0.8 0.0% 21 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 10,943 519.00 0.8% -0.9% 3,397 5,861 590.91 424.55 18 1.7 2.7% 22 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 10,607 33.00 0.0% 15.8% 149 1,314 33.40 25.30 11 1.2 4.2% 23 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 10,530 70.20 0.9% 19.0% 233 4,366 74.50 52.00 16 2.3 4.6% 24 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,992 7.06 0.4% 3.8% 629 1,208 7.50 6.50 9 1.2 5.9% 25 Kingdom Holding Co SA 8,845 8.95 -0.3% 0.0% 115 274 11.30 7.90 50 1.1 0.0% 26 Alinma Bank SJSC SA 8,320 20.80 -0.3% 8.6% 21,764 1,20,713 21.58 14.00 15 1.5 3.8% 27 Abu Dhabi National Oil Co for Dist AE 8,270 2.43 -0.8% -8.3% 283 187 2.90 2.42 17 10.7 2.4% 28 Arab National Bank SA 8,213 30.80 -1.8% 24.4% 94 775 33.65 19.15 10 1.3 3.9% 29 Emaar Malls PJSC AE 7,902 2.23 0.5% 4.7% 3,138 1,905 2.66 2.00 14 1.8 4.5% 30 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 7,608 10.44 -6.9% -13.6% 356 1,021 16.30 6.19 16 0.9 0.0% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 6,19,225 3.5% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Limited (“AMCL”). AMCL is a company incorporated in the Cayman Islands as an Exempt Company established under the laws of the Cayman Monetary Authority. The information contained in this report does not constitute any offer to sell securities or the solicitation of any offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended to be used by experienced investment persons with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCL is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority, and as such should not be relied upon by or distributed to “Retail Clients”. 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