MENA Market Report - 19 Sep

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Monday , September 19, 2016 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets started the week on a negative note, in line with the sentiments witnessed through the week, which was mostly mi ssed by the regional investors due to Eid break. Further, oil prices moving sideways as news about a potential agreement continues to change on a daily basis, mostly speculative in nature. Hence investors should remain cautious and trade light to absorb the outcome of central bank meetings as both are scheduled on Thursday, which is end of the week for the regional markets. For the day, Saudi Arabia was the worst performer as it was down by 1.9%, further extending the yearly losses to 12.3%. The index was dragged lower by petchems, especially the most active stocks. Qatar was up by 0.4% as investors bought into stocks that were beaten down in the selloff witnessed before the Eid break. Qatar might also benefit from the rotational movement in the regional markets, especially the economic outlook remains relatively better compared to its peers. UAE markets were mostly negative as Dubai was positively flat, while Abu Dhabi was down by 0.3% for the day. Abu Dhabi was down for a second consecutive session, however, remains positive for the month of September, while Dubai is down during the same period. Egypt was down by 0.8% for the day as the market breadth was skewed towards decliners, which was in line with the regional sentiments. Bahrain and Oman were both up by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, while Kuwait was down by 0.1% for the day International Markets: At the time of writing this report, Asian markets opened on a positive note as Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai were all up by 0.7%, 1.1% and 0.6% respectively. Headlines (WW) Global Investors Bet USD 7.3 Billion on Australia’s Busiest Port (ME) MENA's projected economic growth rate at weakest since 2009 (WW) Central bankers group issues stark warning on world economy (GCC) Water-starved GCC imports 90% of eatables (WW) EU eyes ‘ambitious’ trade deal with PH (SA) Saudi Arabia to remove subsidies on seven services (WW) China August Home Prices Rise in More Cities as Sales Gain (SA) It is about more than Saudizing jobs in mobile outlets (WW) China Expected to Keep Its Deep Pockets Open to Boost Its Economy (AE) Second-quarter debt issuance spikes in UAE (WW) China's potential economic growth rate estimated at 6.5-6.6% (AE) UAE equities to perform better in next 12 months (WW) In steel production India will rank after Japan, US (EG) Egypt’s retail market ‘is back in business’ (WW) Russian ruling party gaining new mandate despite economic slump (QA) Qatar second in WB’s GCC Logistics Performance Index (WW) Australia Reaffirms RBA Inflation Target, Underlines Flexibility (QA) Qatar- Steep drop in airfares as peak season ends (CMD) Funds Dump Gold at Fastest Pace Since May as Fed Outlook Shifts (OM) Study aims to reduce imports, increase local production (CMD) Hard-to-Get Ore Means Tin Supply From Top Exporter to Shrink (KW) Kuwait non-oil growth pegged at 4-4.5% in 2016, 2017 (FX) Yuan Interbank Rate Surges in Hong Kong in Sign of Intervention (BH) Bahrain, UK joint cooperation discussed (FX) Dollar stands tall after US data bolsters Fed rate hike bets (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,483.32 0.0% 0.0% -0.6% 10.5% ˅ ˄ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,486.28 -0.3% -0.3% 0.3% 4.2% ˅ ˄ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 6,060.07 -1.9% -1.9% -0.3% -12.3% ˅ ˅ ˅ Kuwait (KWSE) 5,426.36 -0.1% -0.1% 0.1% -3.4% ˅ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 7,916.41 -0.8% -0.8% -3.0% 13.0% ˅ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 10,572.45 0.4% 0.4% -3.8% 1.4% ˅ ˄ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,128.42 0.3% 0.3% -1.2% -7.2% ˅ ˄ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 5,779.18 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 6.9% ˅ ˅ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 226 260 339 72 96 115 82,714 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 62 68 92 26 41 47 120,080 Saudi (SASEIDX) 93 191 242 440 867 1,140 373,842 Index Kuwait (KWSE) 44 69 113 16 29 35 75,087 Egypt (EGX30) 100 198 225 68 85 106 43,303 Qatar (DSM) 14 6 7 191 75 77 131,468 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1 2 2 1 1 1 18,177 Oman (MSM30) 6 15 20 3 8 10 16,751 * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Monday , September 19, 2016 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB 11.9 10.9 10.6 9.6 386.2 8.7 300 8 239.3 188.3 178.1 4 1.3 Current 489.3 13.4 11.2 12 Previous 600 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 - - 0.8 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 0 106.9 87.2 1.3 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 8% 27% 6.3% 18% 5.7% 6% 4.9% 4.8% 4.5% 4.6% 3.8% 4% 13.0% 10.5% 9% 6.9% 4.2% 1.4% 0% 2.4% 2% -3.4% -9% 0% -7.2% -12.3% -18% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Monday , September 19, 2016 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) MARKA PJSC 1.12 -5.08% 4 5 AJMAN BANK PJSC 1.52 -3.18% 4,093 6,323 6,801 AL SALAM BANK SUDAN PLC 1.30 -2.26% 220 289 300 2,481 ARAMEX PJSC 3.84 -2.04% 1,644 6,379 21,588 18,825 AIR ARABIA PJSC 1.36 -1.45% 844 1,156 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) WAHA CAPITAL PJSC 1.93 -3.02% 2,281 4,470 69 RAS AL KHAIMAH CERAMICS PSC 3.00 -2.60% 2,749 8,358 245 124 SUDATEL TELECOM GROUP LTD 0.53 -1.85% 267 143 2 1 METHAQ TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO 0.86 -1.15% 1,290 1,116 1.23% 28,307 23,070 FIRST GULF BANK PJSC 11.90 -0.83% 1,312 15,674 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) MALATH COOPERATIVE INSURANCE 10.90 6.34% 2,310 24,430 SAUDI TRANSPORT AND INVESTMENT 53.50 -5.73% 651 35,887 UMM AL QURA CEMENT CO SJSC 19.70 3.68% 662 12,802 SAUDI INDUSTRIAL EXPORT CO SJSC 33.70 -5.07% 261 9,029 SAUDIA DAIRY AND FOODSTUFF CO 137.50 2.23% 38 5,235 NATIONAL SHIPPING COMPANY 33.70 -5.07% 1,631 56,442 SOUTHERN PROVINCE CEMENT CO 68.00 1.49% 2 152 NATIONAL AGRICULTURE MARKETING 27.70 -4.81% 189 5,366 TAIBA HOLDING CO SJSC 36.80 0.82% 69 2,529 UNITED WIRE FACTORIES CO JSC 21.90 -4.78% 95 2,124 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) GULF GLASS MANUFACTURING CO 325.00 8.33% 6 2 AL MASAKEN INTERNATIONAL 96.00 -32.39% 0 0 TAAMEER REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT 22.50 7.14% 89 2 AWJ HOLDING CO KSCP 58.00 -6.45% 4 0 SPECIALITIES GROUP HOLDING CO 89.00 5.95% 0 0 KUWAIT SLAUGHTERHOUSE CO 148.00 -6.33% 5 1 NATIONAL INVESTMENTS CO KSCP 116.00 5.45% 1,744 197 AL SOOR FUEL MARKETING COMPANY 112.00 -5.08% 44 5 FUTURE COMMUNICATIONS CO 97.00 5.43% 5 0 KUWAIT RESORTS COMPANY KPSC 78.00 -4.88% 72 6 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) 1.80 8.43% 3,527 6,103 GRAND CAPITAL FOR FINANCIAL 3.50 -8.85% 6 22 EGYPTIAN CO FOR INTERNATIONAL 3.28 5.81% 8 24 GOLDEN TEXTILES AND CLOTHES 3.70 -8.42% 38 147 PYRAMISA HOTELS AND RESORTS SAE 28.75 3.57% 2 55 INTERNATIONAL CO INV AND DEV SAE 7.06 -7.23% 2 14 SHOROUK FOR MODERN PRINTING 7.35 3.38% 2 15 NOZHA INTERNATIONAL HOSPITAL 60.00 -6.04% 0 20 SAMAD MISR SAE 5.43 3.04% 4 19 SABAA INT CO PHARMA AND CHEM 2.99 -5.97% 14 43 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) OOREDOO QSC 100.30 3.94% 660 64,922 SALAM INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT 11.20 -2.95% 130 1,476 QATARI INVESTORS GROUP QSC 50.00 3.09% 420 20,673 ALIJARAH HOLDING CO QSC 17.10 -2.84% 20 349 BARWA REAL ESTATE CO QSC 36.20 1.69% 804 28,866 UNITED DEVELOPMENT CO PSC 19.70 -2.72% 947 18,916 QATAR INSURANCE CO SAQ 89.00 1.48% 187 16,509 AAMAL CO QSC 15.00 -2.60% 314 4,779 EZDAN HOLDING GROUP QSC 18.03 1.29% 1,161 20,803 MESAIEED PETROCHEMICAL HOLDING 17.60 -2.17% 137 2,442 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 0.89 9.34% 42,050 35,827 TAKAFUL EMARAT INSURANCE PJSC 2.82 2.92% 76 210 AMLAK FINANCE PJSC 1.38 2.22% 4,982 EMIRATES NBD BANK PJSC 8.34 1.71% AMANAT HOLDINGS PJSC 0.88 0.92% Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) FINANCE HOUSE PJSC 1.89 2.16% 30 56 ABU DHABI NATIONAL FOR BUILDING 0.50 2.04% 139 ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 0.51 2.00% ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 0.80 1.27% ESHRAQ PROPERTIES CO PJSC 0.82 Abu Dhabi Dubai Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Kuwait Top Gainers Top Gainers Egypt AJWA FOR FOOD INDUSTRIES CO Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Monday , September 19, 2016 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corp SJSC SA 66,596 83.25 -1.5% 8.5% 3,302 73,284 92.75 59.50 15 1.6 6.6% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 47,005 19.85 -0.3% 23.3% 510 2,759 20.20 14.10 19 3.9 4.0% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 35,978 156.00 0.6% 7.0% 1,014 43,465 169.80 122.50 11 1.8 1.6% 4 Saudi Telecom Co SJSC SA 29,865 56.00 -3.0% -17.9% 216 3,222 69.75 55.50 13 1.9 7.1% 5 Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corp SA 24,915 57.50 0.0% 10.6% 812 12,451 62.75 44.70 12 1.9 2.6% 6 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 20,551 18.50 -2.6% 17.5% 783 3,863 21.80 12.40 49 1.3 3.8% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 18,399 34.50 -4.2% -32.4% 215 1,976 56.00 34.00 7 1.2 4.5% 8 Industries Qatar QSC QA 17,614 106.00 -0.9% -4.6% 720 20,964 128.00 88.00 16 2.0 4.7% 9 DP World Ltd AE 15,388 18.54 -2.9% -8.7% 45 229 21.50 16.05 16 1.8 1.6% 10 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 14,808 59.75 -0.4% 7.7% 88 1,399 68.75 40.80 0 5.9 0.0% 11 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 14,581 11.90 -0.8% -5.9% 1,312 4,250 14.25 9.90 9 1.6 8.4% 12 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 13,724 7.04 0.0% 23.7% 4,597 8,812 7.46 4.22 12 1.3 2.1% 13 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 13,136 18.03 1.3% 13.4% 1,161 5,751 20.24 12.10 28 1.6 2.8% 14 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 13,136 9.26 -0.4% 16.3% 418 1,053 10.35 6.86 10 1.1 4.9% 15 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,621 8.34 1.7% 12.7% 300 681 9.19 6.25 7 0.9 4.8% 16 Almarai Co SJSC SA 11,733 55.00 -0.9% -6.3% 132 1,930 66.56 40.88 22 3.6 1.6% 17 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 11,039 590.00 -1.7% -20.7% 501 980 799.36 550.00 12 1.1 4.7% 18 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,771 10.90 -0.5% -30.6% 89 260 21.20 9.80 65 1.5 4.6% 19 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 10,251 32.90 -4.6% -0.9% 519 4,555 43.20 25.70 102 1.4 0.0% 20 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 9,759 18.30 -4.2% -21.6% 538 2,626 24.05 17.05 7 0.9 4.9% 21 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,710 2.74 0.4% -0.7% 539 402 3.25 2.02 20 2.4 3.6% 22 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,675 6.35 1.1% -3.6% 368 637 7.97 5.20 7 1.2 7.1% 23 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,824 100.30 3.9% 33.7% 660 18,176 107.00 60.00 12 1.4 3.0% 24 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,280 10.35 -2.4% -16.5% 303 837 14.35 10.15 8 0.8 6.8% 25 Emirates Integrated Telecomm Co PJSC AE 8,153 6.55 0.5% 28.4% 191 340 6.99 4.89 16 3.8 6.6% 26 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 8,092 465.00 0.0% -5.3% 450 694 545.45 395.45 13 1.4 3.3% 27 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 7,520 18.80 -2.1% -24.0% 341 1,712 28.70 17.35 6 0.9 4.0% 28 Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co SJSC SA 7,500 67.50 0.0% -18.4% 135 2,436 98.25 58.00 18 4.4 8.9% 29 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 7,354 35.70 0.7% -5.1% 2,000 19,606 44.70 28.60 13 2.3 4.9% 30 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 7,199 5.35 -0.4% -5.2% 1,506 2,193 6.36 4.51 6 1.0 7.7% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 494,178 4.4% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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