MENA Market Report - 18 October

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , October 18, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets witnessed subdued trading session as four out of the eight indexes closed in red, while three in green and one remained unchanged for the day. Some of the regional banks have started reporting third quarter earnings and others are expected to report in the coming weeks, which will closely followed by the markets. Oil prices rose above $58 again, which will also provide support to the regional markets as they move into the last leg of the year. UAE markets ended on a negative note as Dubai and Abu Dhabi were both down by 0.4% and 0.8% for the day. The day's performance has pushed both the indexes into negative territory for the week, while it remains in positive territory for the month. Qatar closed on a negative note as it was down by 0.8% for the day, extending the losses to 1.4% for the week. Saudi Arabia closed higher by 0.2% for the day, which helped in recovering the losses to turn positive for the week. The index was mostly supported by banks and energy sector stocks, which continue to remain the most preferred bets for investors. However, the trading activity continues to remain thin as there is lack of confidence within the investors, which are expected to take cues from the third quarter earnings. Kuwait closed higher by 0.2% for the day, continuing to move higher during the week. Egypt closed flat for the day after declining by 2.7% on previous day. Bahrain closed higher by 0.4%, while Oman was down by 0.1% for the day. International Markets: US markets closed on a marginally positive note as DJIA and S&P were up by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, while Nasdaq was down by 0.01% for the day. European markets closed on a negative note as FTSE, DAX and CAC were down by 0.1%, 0.1% and 0.03% respectively. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a positive note as Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai are up by 0.1%, 0.03% and 0.3%. Headlines (WW) US, Japan fail to bridge gap on trade in economic talks (ME) Mideast IT security spend to hit USD 1.8bn in 2017 (WW) China third-quarter GDP growth to slow on housing curbs, debt clampdown (GCC) Manufacturing in the GCC can power economic growth (WW) China factories grapple with soaring prices as pollution crackdown bites (GCC) GCC public debt total reaches USD 415bn (WW) China's deleveraging will not have negative impact on economy (SA) Saudis earn double the salaries of expats in the private sector (WW) Britain proposes tougher M&A rules to protect national security (AE) Dubai ruler launches UAE Strategy for Artificial Intelligence (WW) British inflation at 5-1/2-year high in September, rate hike on track (AE) Nearly half of UAE residents in debt (WW) German investor morale buoyed by flush order books (AE) No VAT on sale and purchase of shares in UAE (WW) Japan manufacturers' mood hits decade-high (EG) Egypt expects to renew financing deal with global banks (CMD) Oil holds gains as Iraq, US-Iran tension raises risks (EG) Egyptian GDP growth seen below government forecasts, inflation easing (CMD) Gold prices hold steady amid firm dollar (QA) Qatar and Singapore affirm ties in various sectors, business (FX) Sterling recovers after dipping on UK inflation data (KW) Kuwait approves plan on expat quotas (FX) Strong data sends dollar to session highs (BH) Bahrain Cabinet approves excise tax draft law (FI) USD 4tn hole in the bond market may start filling in 2018 (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,643.37 -0.4% -0.5% 2.2% 3.2% ˄ ˄ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,488.72 -0.8% -0.8% 2.1% -1.3% ˄ ˅ ˅ Saudi (SASEIDX) 6,992.30 0.2% 0.1% -4.0% -3.0% ˅ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,648.30 0.2% 0.3% -0.5% 15.7% ˅ ˅ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 13,525.48 0.0% -2.6% -2.6% 9.6% ˅ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 8,229.27 -0.8% -1.4% -1.0% -21.2% ˅ ˅ ˅ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,282.73 0.4% 0.6% -0.1% 7.4% ˅ ˅ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 5,088.71 -0.1% -0.8% -0.9% -12.0% ˄ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 451 205 249 143 78 87 85,432 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 63 101 105 27 48 48 133,265 Saudi (SASEIDX) 108 125 151 657 741 780 441,397 Kuwait (KWSE) 81 107 102 40 80 62 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 422 336 314 77 59 67 20,282 Qatar (DSM) 9 9 10 65 55 70 92,100 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 5 3 3 2 2 2 20,378 Oman (MSM30) 8 19 16 6 10 8 14,257 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , October 18, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 12 PB 14.3 10.3 Previous 489.3 11.1 11.2 11.5 11.3 386.2 9.6 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.3 1.6 Current 600 2.0 1.6 - - 1.2 0.8 0.9 Bahrain Oman - 178.1 0 106.9 87.2 1.3 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 8% 27% 6% 4.7% 5.0% 4.5% 9% 3.6% 3.6% 4% 15.7% 18% 5.9% 5.4% 9.6% 5.1% 3.2% 0% -1.3% -9% -3.0% 2% -12.0% -18% 0.0% 0.0% 0% -21.2% -27% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , October 18, 2017 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) GULF GENERAL INVESTMENT CO PSC 0.44 7.94% 0 17,040 UNION PROPERTIES PJSC 0.88 2.45% 0 MARKA PJSC 0.68 2.40% DUBAI REFRESHMENTS PJSC 16.10 2.22% DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE & REINS 0.95 Close DoD % Volume Value OMAN INSURANCE COMPANY PSC 1.70 -5.56% 0 131 43,401 NATIONAL CEMENT CO PSC 3.00 -3.23% 0 7 3,647 2,458 AL SALAM BANK SUDAN PLC 1.93 -3.02% 82 161 0 1 AMLAK FINANCE PJSC 1.08 -1.82% 2,920 3,182 1.60% 3,766 3,553 AIR ARABIA PJSC 1.24 -1.59% 34,251 42,814 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) SHARJAH GROUP CO 1.20 14.29% 10 11 AXA GREEN CRESCENT INSURANCE CO 0.55 -9.84% 15 9 AL KHALEEJ INVESTMENT CO PJSC 3.83 9.43% 262 962 DANA GAS PJSC 0.73 -2.67% 16,340 12,092 ABU DHABI NATIONAL FOR BUILDING 0.46 6.98% 95 42 MANAZEL REAL ESTATE PJSC 0.54 -1.82% 5,483 2,988 AL KHAZNA INSURANCE COMPANY 0.31 6.90% 8,888 2,666 SUDATEL TELECOM GROUP LTD 0.64 -1.54% 3,263 2,104 ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 0.69 1.47% 893 612 FIRST ABU DHABI BANK PJSC 10.35 -1.43% 1,403 14,626 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) MALATH COOPERATIVE INSURANCE 15.14 9.39% 927 13,432 RAYDAN COMPANY CJSC 16.70 -4.57% 15 257 UNITED COOPERATIVE ASSURANCE 14.56 6.43% 1,228 17,346 ARAB SEA INFORMATION SYSTEMS CO 11.74 -3.93% 9 103 UNITED INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT 26.55 3.71% 2,076 54,134 COMPANY FOR COOPERATIVE INSUR 99.00 -2.94% 177 17,797 METLIFE AIG ANB COOPERATIVE 18.32 3.50% 560 10,077 TABUK CEMENT CO SJSC 10.16 -2.12% 18 189 ELECTRICAL INDUSTRIES CO JSC 21.06 3.34% 622 12,888 SAUDI ENAYA COOPERATIVE INSUR 23.18 -2.11% 1,287 30,163 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) MUNSHAAT REAL ESTATE PROJECTS 69.00 7.31% 4,593 306 BURGAN FOR WELL DRILLING TRAD 79.60 -19.92% 5 0 REAL ESTATE TRADE CENTERS CO 40.00 5.54% 71 3 FUTURE KID ENTERTAINMENT 111.00 -9.76% 384 45 GULF NORTH AFRICA HOLDING CO 40.50 4.38% 1,187 47 ARZAN FINANCIAL GROUP 31.10 -8.26% 238 8 TIJARA AND REALESTATE INVESTMENT 62.00 4.20% 176 11 EQUIPMENT HOLDING COMPANY 38.60 -7.88% 1,184 48 REAL ESTATE ASSET MANAGEMENT 300.00 4.17% 0 0 TAMDEEN REAL ESTATE CO KPSC 386.00 -3.98% 41 16 Top Gainers Close DoD % Volume Value Close DoD % Volume Value ARAB ALUMINUM CO SAE 53.60 9.99% 80 4,099 AL OROUBA SECURITIES BROKERAGE 0.65 -9.72% 31 21 EL NASR CLOTHING AND TEXTILES CO 1.39 9.45% 6,621 8,807 AJWA FOR FOOD INDUSTRIES CO 3.06 -6.99% 1,439 4,568 EGYPTIAN TOURAH PORTLAND CEM 19.31 9.16% 418 7,724 INTERNATIONAL COMPANY 11.50 -6.88% 3 36 CAIRO POULTRY CO SAE 6.58 9.12% 181 1,139 MISR HOTELS CO SAE 48.26 -5.72% 1 25 ALEXANDRIA SPINNING & WEAVING 1.73 8.81% 644 1,069 ARAB ENGINEERING INDUSTRIES SAE 7.12 -5.19% 4 27 Close DoD % Volume Value Close DoD % Volume Value QATAR GENERAL INSURANCE 39.99 6.64% 3 106 QATAR FIRST BANK LLC 6.19 -4.03% 2,816 17,799 QATAR ISLAMIC INSURANCE CO QPSC 52.30 3.56% 0 2 QATARI INVESTORS GROUP QSC 33.00 -3.73% 26 872 AL KHALIJ COMMERCIAL BANK PQSC 12.05 0.67% 18 214 DOHA BANK QPSC 27.15 -3.35% 145 3,991 MASRAF AL RAYAN QPSC 35.89 0.03% 583 20,914 BARWA REAL ESTATE COMPANY QPSC 30.21 -3.27% 588 18,065 MEDICARE GROUP QSC 71.00 0.00% 1 66 VODAFONE QATAR QSC 7.44 -3.25% 592 4,482 Dubai Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Egypt Kuwait Top Gainers Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , October 18, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 78,552 98.20 -0.1% 7.3% 3,348 87,671 105.40 81.50 16 1.9 6.1% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 42,385 17.90 -0.6% -4.8% 784 3,820 19.70 17.10 18 3.6 4.5% 3 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 36,529 68.50 -0.4% -5.5% 293 5,351 78.90 52.75 15 2.2 5.8% 4 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 30,709 10.35 -1.4% 3.6% 1,403 3,953 11.55 8.30 13 1.2 4.3% 5 Qatar National Bank QPSC QA 30,346 124.19 -0.5% -16.1% 322 10,992 157.27 118.50 9 1.5 2.6% 6 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 27,860 64.30 0.9% 2.1% 3,600 61,718 71.70 51.50 12 1.9 3.5% 7 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 26,308 23.68 2.3% 5.7% 748 4,720 26.05 16.70 11 1.4 3.0% 8 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 25,917 48.60 -1.0% 14.1% 357 4,632 58.00 33.00 10 1.6 3.3% 9 DP World Ltd AE 18,924 22.80 -0.9% 30.2% 56 345 23.85 15.53 18 1.9 1.7% 10 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 16,765 8.60 -0.6% 20.6% 5,565 13,030 8.95 6.37 11 1.4 1.7% 11 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 15,736 63.50 1.0% -15.1% 101 1,703 76.00 53.00 68 5.8 0.0% 12 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 15,547 49.90 0.2% 27.9% 129 1,713 54.00 32.20 228 2.2 0.0% 13 Almarai Co SJSC SA 15,412 57.80 -0.3% 5.5% 576 8,871 78.64 44.00 28 4.3 1.2% 14 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 15,401 785.00 -0.1% 26.8% 1,263 3,287 800.00 542.86 15 1.4 3.6% 15 Industries Qatar QSC QA 15,205 95.00 -0.5% -19.1% 168 4,397 122.00 85.00 22 1.8 4.2% 16 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,832 8.48 0.0% -0.1% 23 53 9.00 7.60 7 0.8 4.7% 17 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 11,796 22.12 -0.7% -9.2% 2,097 12,371 27.10 15.90 9 1.0 4.3% 18 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 11,585 606.00 0.0% 23.4% 1,199 2,409 650.00 418.18 18 1.9 2.6% 19 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 11,089 7.50 0.0% 0.0% 2 3 11.95 1.57 117 5.8 0.0% 20 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 10,519 26.30 0.0% 5.2% 207 1,448 28.55 16.40 10 1.2 2.7% 21 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 10,431 7.37 -0.8% 6.8% 1,674 3,358 7.68 5.66 10 1.3 5.4% 22 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,020 10.14 -0.4% -15.1% 41 111 12.95 9.80 66 1.3 4.9% 23 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 9,079 28.25 1.1% 8.2% 360 2,714 33.40 18.60 10 1.1 3.7% 24 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,895 11.12 0.7% -3.7% 433 1,283 12.06 8.55 11 0.9 5.8% 25 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 8,459 56.40 0.4% 0.0% 112 1,688 61.75 44.00 15 2.1 0.0% 26 Emaar Malls PJSC AE 8,256 2.33 0.0% -11.1% 4,225 2,680 2.80 2.25 16 1.8 4.3% 27 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 8,128 6.04 -1.5% 8.4% 11,556 19,003 6.29 5.01 8 1.2 7.5% 28 Ooredoo QSC QA 7,322 86.40 0.0% -15.1% 72 1,713 116.10 80.00 15 1.2 4.1% 29 Mobile Telecommunications Company KW 7,317 510.00 0.0% 24.4% 2,785 4,708 570.00 330.00 13 1.7 6.9% 30 Alinma Bank SJSC SA 7,191 17.98 -0.8% 19.1% 30,669 147,032 18.46 11.45 17 1.4 2.8% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 554,515 3.8% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated in the DIFC (Dubai International Financial Centre) and regulated by the DFSA (Dubai Financial Services Authority). The information contained in this report does not constitute any offer to sell securities or the solicitation of any offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended to be used by experienced investment persons with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority, and as such should not be relied upon by or distributed to “Retail Clients”. More-over, none of the report is intended as a prospectus within the meaning of the applicable laws of any jurisdiction and none of the report is directed to any person in any country in which the distribution of such report is unlawful. This report provides general information only. The information and opinions in the report constitute a judgment as at the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. The information may therefore not be accurate or current. The information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express, or implied, is made by AMCML, as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness and AMCML does also not warrant that the information is up to date. Any reference to third party research material or any other report contained in this report represents the respective research organization’s estimates and views and does not represent the views of AMCML and its officers and employees do not accept any liability or responsibility whatsoever with respect to its accuracy or correctness and AMCML has included such reports or made reference to such reports in good faith. This report may also provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers, AMCML takes no responsibility whatsoever for the contents therein. Such addresses or hyperlinks are provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked site does not in any way form part of this report. Accessing such website or following such link through this report shall be at your own risk. Moreover, you should be aware of the fact that investments in undertakings, securities or other financial instruments involve general and specific risks. Past results do not guarantee future performance. AMCML does not accept any liability for any loss arising from the use of material presented in this report. AMCML may seek to do business, or may already have had some business dealings, with companies covered in this report. As a result, investors should be aware that AMCML may be considered as having a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of research produced. Investors should consider any AMCML research as only a single factor in making any investment decision. This document has not been reviewed by, approved by or filed with the DFSA. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without our prior written consent of the Company. 4