MENA Market Report - 17 October

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , October 17, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets ended the session on a mixed tone as there is lack of confidence within the investors about the geopolitical environment, while the cues from the global markets continue to remain positive. Further, the volatility in oil prices is also keeping investors away from the markets. Investors are also closely following the third quarter earnings, which could help in reviving investor confidence during the last two months of the year. For the regional markets, four out of the eight indexes closed in green, while three ended in red and one remained unchanged for the day. Saudi Arabia closed on a positive note as it was up by 0.6% for the day, recovering most of the losses recorded on previous day. Saudi Arabia has witnessed increased downward pressure since the start of the previous week, especially in insurance sector as the regulator sent notices to nine companies to terminate operations. UAE markets ended on a slightly positive note as Abu Dhabi was up by 0.1%, while Dubai was flat for the day. Egypt was the worst performer as the index declined by 2.7% for the day, which pushed the monthly performance into negative territory. Kuwait closed higher by 0.2% for the day after ending marginally lower on previous day. Qatar closed on a negative note as it was down by 0.5% for the day, which dragged the monthly performance into negative territory. Bahrain closed higher by 0.3%, while Oman was down by 0.8% for the day. International Markets: US markets closed on a positive note as DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P were all up by 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. European markets closed on a marginally positive note as DAX and CAC were up by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, while FTSE was down by 0.1%. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a mixed note as Nikkei and Hang Seng are up by 0.03% and 0.06%, while Shanghai is down by 0.2%. Headlines (WW) Fed chair's positive forecast for US economy (ME) Middle East economic growth prospects to improve for 2018 (WW) US demands raise fears that leaving NAFTA could hurt economy (GCC) GCC debt yields trade in narrow range in Q3 2017 (WW) US Consumers Most Confident in 13 Years (SA) Saudi Arabia sets up commercial courts to expedite investment (WW) China September producer prices jump most in six months in boost for inflation (SA) Confidence in Saudi grows 4 points in second quarter (WW) China's economy expected to grow 7% in second half (SA) Saudi plans 280,000 housing units by year-end (WW) Rise in self-employment transforms UK's economic statistics (SA) No VAT on housing rent and government services (WW) Artificial Intelligence could add around £630bn to UK economy (AE) Saudi, UAE extend maturities of USD 4bn deposits due in 2018 (WW) Stronger currency shrinks euro zone trade surplus in August (AE) Dubai Investments targets strategic growth and innovation prospects (CMD) Oil rises as fighting escalates in Iraq's oil-rich Kirkuk (AE) Dubai, Saudi in deal to drive foreign investments (CMD) Gold eases amid firm dollar, stronger equities (AE) Abu Dhabi Investment Authority's unit to invest USD 1bn in India's infra fund (FX) Dollar supported as US yields rise on Fed leadership speculation (EG) Egypt expects to renew financing deal with global banks (FX) Sterling strengthens as investors bet on data boost (EG) IMF, World Bank praise Egypt's economic reform programme (FI) Foreign investors reduce S.Korea bonds, stock holdings again in September (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,657.48 -0.0% -0.1% 2.6% 3.6% ˄ ˄ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,523.51 0.1% -0.1% 2.9% -0.5% ˄ ˅ ˅ Saudi (SASEIDX) 6,976.97 0.6% -0.2% -4.2% -3.2% ˅ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,635.96 0.2% 0.1% -0.7% 15.4% ˅ ˅ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 13,525.25 -2.7% -2.6% -2.6% 9.6% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 8,299.71 -0.5% -0.5% -0.2% -20.5% ˅ ˅ ˅ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,278.26 0.3% 0.3% -0.4% 7.4% ˅ ˅ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 5,095.29 -0.8% -0.6% -0.8% -11.9% ˄ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 580 202 247 175 78 87 85,500 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 133 102 105 56 48 48 134,050 Saudi (SASEIDX) 142 125 152 786 742 781 438,678 Kuwait (KWSE) 68 107 103 56 80 62 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 621 334 313 101 58 67 20,759 Qatar (DSM) 6 9 10 39 58 68 96,613 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 6 3 3 4 2 2 20,313 Oman (MSM30) 24 19 16 10 10 8 14,378 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , October 17, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB 10.4 11.2 11.5 11.7 11.4 386.2 9.7 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.3 1.6 Current 489.3 14.1 12 Previous 600 2.1 1.6 - - 1.2 0.8 1.0 Bahrain Oman - 178.1 0 106.9 87.2 1.4 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 8% 27% 6% 4.7% 4.9% 4.5% 9% 3.6% 3.5% 4% 15.4% 18% 5.9% 5.3% 9.6% 4.7% 3.6% 0% -0.5% -9% -3.2% 2% -11.9% -18% 0.0% 0.0% 0% -20.5% -27% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , October 17, 2017 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ISLAMIC ARAB INSURANCE CO PSC 0.56 6.07% 0 86,895 MASHREQBANK PSC 73.90 4.82% 0 DEYAAR DEVELOPMENT PJSC 0.54 3.48% AIR ARABIA PJSC 1.26 2.44% AL SALAM BANK SUDAN PLC 1.99 Close DoD % Volume Value DXB ENTERTAINMENTS PJSC 0.77 -2.28% 0 10,034 59 DUBAI ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 6.13 -0.81% 0 46,012 77,606 40,821 DUBAI INVESTMENTS PJSC 2.48 -0.80% 12,066 30,044 27,439 34,162 GULF NAVIGATION HOLDING PJSC 1.39 -0.71% 4,227 5,897 2.05% 214 421 EMAAR PROPERTIES PJSC 8.65 -0.57% 6,804 59,021 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) FINANCE HOUSE PJSC 1.80 12.50% 50 85 ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 0.68 -5.56% 873 611 GULF CEMENT CO PSC 1.04 4.00% 130 133 AL KHALEEJ INVESTMENT CO PJSC 3.50 -5.41% 41 146 ALDAR PROPERTIES PJSC 2.50 2.88% 20,530 50,606 RAS AL KHAIMAH CEMENT CO PSC 0.75 -3.85% 26 20 ESHRAQ PROPERTIES COMPANY PJSC 0.79 1.28% 29,827 23,415 AL KHAZNA INSURANCE COMPANY 0.29 -3.33% 6,032 1,779 ABU DHABI COMMERCIAL BANK PJSC 7.43 1.23% 3,189 23,548 SUDATEL TELECOM GROUP LTD 0.65 -2.99% 2,204 1,455 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) SALAMA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE 26.45 9.39% 2,548 64,491 EMAAR THE ECONOMIC CITY SJSC 12.94 -3.29% 3,418 44,985 WALAA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 29.50 7.08% 642 18,310 FALCOM PETROCHEMICAL ETF 25.90 -3.00% 7 172 TRADE UNION COOPERATIVE INSUR 22.82 6.44% 1,129 24,995 SAMBA FINANCIAL GROUP SJSC 22.28 -2.19% 2,990 67,357 MIDDLE EAST PAPER CO SJSC 19.20 5.38% 1,214 22,720 CITY CEMENT CO CJSC 9.52 -1.86% 401 3,852 ALINMA BANK SJSC 18.12 5.10% 43,022 760,635 HAIL CEMENT CO SJSC 8.56 -1.61% 351 3,026 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Top Losers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) REAL ESTATE ASSET MANAGEMENT 288.00 20.00% 3 1 UNITED REAL ESTATE COMPANY SAKP 86.00 -9.47% 206 19 AL ARGAN INTERNATIONAL REAL EST 160.00 19.40% 1 0 AUTOMATED SYSTEMS CO KPSC 150.00 -9.09% 5 1 ASIYA CAPITAL INVESTMENTS CO 40.00 5.82% 637 25 KUWAIT COMPANY FOR PROCESS 151.00 -8.48% 20 3 NATIONAL INDUSTRIES GROUP HOLD 156.00 5.41% 7,982 1,213 JIYAD HOLDING CO KSCP 47.00 -5.81% 63 3 SENERGY HOLDING COMPANY KSCP 39.70 4.47% 22 1 NATIONAL INDUSTRIES COMPANY 175.00 -5.41% 0 0 Top Gainers Close DoD % Volume Value Close DoD % Volume Value ARAB ALUMINUM CO SAE 48.73 16.58% 205 9,257 1.22 -8.27% 1,426 1,818 NATIONAL COMPANY FOR HOUSING 25.20 9.66% 6 139 AL EZZ DEKHEILA STEEL COMPANY 550.13 -8.23% 1 364 ARAB ENGINEERING INDUSTRIES SAE 7.51 9.16% 13 90 ALEXANDRIA MINERAL OILS CO SAE 12.67 -7.79% 1,517 20,038 EL NASR CLOTHING AND TEXTILES CO 1.27 8.55% 7,765 9,473 NASR CO FOR CIVIL WORKS SAE 22.77 -7.70% 26 622 ALEXANDRIA SPINNING & WEAVING 1.59 7.43% 1,466 2,250 ASSIUT ISLAMIC NATIONAL TRADE 6.10 -7.58% 12 76 Close DoD % Volume Value Close DoD % Volume Value MANNAI CORPORATION QPSC 68.19 4.28% 0 5 DOHA INSURANCE CO QSC 14.00 -6.67% 0 3 ALIJARAH HOLDING CO QPSC 11.65 3.01% 166 1,907 QATAR GENERAL INSURANCE & REINS 37.50 -6.25% 3 127 SALAM INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT 8.24 2.62% 331 2,696 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QPSC 13.21 -3.58% 21 287 QATAR OMAN INVESTMENT CO QSC 7.98 1.92% 13 101 INVESTMENT HOLDING GROUP 7.15 -2.32% 956 6,917 GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 18.91 1.01% 141 2,660 QATAR FIRST BANK LLC 6.45 -2.27% 312 2,034 Dubai Top Gainers Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Egypt Kuwait Top Gainers Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers MARSA MARSA ALAM FOR DEVELOP Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , October 17, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 78,638 98.30 0.2% 7.4% 2,997 78,554 105.40 81.50 16 1.9 6.1% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 42,622 18.00 -0.3% -4.3% 886 4,342 19.70 17.10 18 3.6 4.4% 3 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 36,692 68.80 -1.0% -5.1% 432 7,921 78.90 52.75 15 2.3 5.8% 4 Qatar National Bank QPSC QA 31,657 124.79 0.6% -15.7% 240 7,918 157.27 118.50 9 1.5 2.5% 5 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 31,154 10.50 0.0% 5.1% 1,321 3,776 11.55 8.30 13 1.2 4.3% 6 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 27,603 63.70 1.1% 1.1% 3,733 63,407 71.70 50.75 12 1.9 3.5% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 26,186 49.10 -0.4% 15.3% 1,037 13,580 58.00 33.00 10 1.6 3.3% 8 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 25,710 23.14 2.0% 3.3% 802 4,948 26.05 16.70 10 1.3 3.0% 9 DP World Ltd AE 19,090 23.00 2.2% 31.4% 269 1,687 23.85 15.53 19 1.9 1.7% 10 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 16,862 8.65 -0.6% 21.3% 6,804 16,024 8.95 6.37 11 1.4 1.7% 11 Industries Qatar QSC QA 15,869 95.50 -1.9% -18.7% 114 2,889 122.00 85.00 22 1.8 4.2% 12 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 15,589 62.90 -1.4% -15.9% 74 1,247 76.00 53.00 67 5.7 0.0% 13 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 15,517 49.80 1.8% 27.7% 245 3,249 54.00 32.20 227 2.2 0.0% 14 Almarai Co SJSC SA 15,466 58.00 1.9% 5.8% 1,012 15,651 78.64 44.00 28 4.3 1.2% 15 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 15,416 786.00 0.0% 27.0% 3,524 9,185 800.00 533.33 15 1.4 3.6% 16 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,832 8.48 0.0% -0.1% 23 53 9.00 7.60 7 0.8 4.7% 17 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 11,882 22.28 -2.2% -8.5% 2,990 17,761 27.10 15.90 9 1.0 4.3% 18 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 11,581 606.00 1.7% 23.4% 4,654 9,352 650.00 418.18 18 1.9 2.6% 19 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 11,089 7.50 0.0% 0.0% 2 3 11.95 1.57 117 5.8 0.0% 20 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 10,520 26.30 0.0% 5.2% 174 1,218 28.55 16.40 10 1.2 2.7% 21 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 10,516 7.43 1.2% 7.7% 3,189 6,450 7.68 5.66 10 1.3 5.4% 22 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,060 10.18 0.8% -14.8% 153 415 12.95 9.80 67 1.3 4.9% 23 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 8,984 27.95 2.8% 7.1% 1,146 8,542 33.40 18.60 10 1.1 3.8% 24 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,832 11.04 0.5% -4.4% 555 1,634 12.06 8.55 11 0.9 5.9% 25 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 8,430 56.20 0.4% 0.0% 316 4,737 61.75 44.00 15 2.1 0.0% 26 Emaar Malls PJSC AE 8,256 2.33 1.3% -11.1% 6,283 3,986 2.80 2.25 16 1.8 4.3% 27 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 8,249 6.13 -0.8% 10.1% 7,476 12,477 6.29 5.01 8 1.2 7.3% 28 Ooredoo QSC QA 7,601 86.40 0.1% -15.1% 56 1,274 116.10 80.00 15 1.2 4.1% 29 Masraf Al Rayan QPSC QA 7,391 35.88 -1.3% -4.6% 356 3,382 45.40 33.05 13 2.2 5.6% 30 Mobile Telecommunications Company KW 7,315 510.00 1.0% 24.4% 6,158 10,412 570.00 330.00 13 1.7 6.9% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 557,609 3.8% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated in the DIFC (Dubai International Financial Centre) and regulated by the DFSA (Dubai Financial Services Authority). The information contained in this report does not constitute any offer to sell securities or the solicitation of any offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended to be used by experienced investment persons with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority, and as such should not be relied upon by or distributed to “Retail Clients”. More-over, none of the report is intended as a prospectus within the meaning of the applicable laws of any jurisdiction and none of the report is directed to any person in any country in which the distribution of such report is unlawful. This report provides general information only. The information and opinions in the report constitute a judgment as at the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. The information may therefore not be accurate or current. The information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express, or implied, is made by AMCML, as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness and AMCML does also not warrant that the information is up to date. Any reference to third party research material or any other report contained in this report represents the respective research organization’s estimates and views and does not represent the views of AMCML and its officers and employees do not accept any liability or responsibility whatsoever with respect to its accuracy or correctness and AMCML has included such reports or made reference to such reports in good faith. This report may also provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers, AMCML takes no responsibility whatsoever for the contents therein. Such addresses or hyperlinks are provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked site does not in any way form part of this report. Accessing such website or following such link through this report shall be at your own risk. Moreover, you should be aware of the fact that investments in undertakings, securities or other financial instruments involve general and specific risks. Past results do not guarantee future performance. AMCML does not accept any liability for any loss arising from the use of material presented in this report. AMCML may seek to do business, or may already have had some business dealings, with companies covered in this report. As a result, investors should be aware that AMCML may be considered as having a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of research produced. Investors should consider any AMCML research as only a single factor in making any investment decision. This document has not been reviewed by, approved by or filed with the DFSA. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without our prior written consent of the Company. 4