MENA Market Report - 16 April

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Sunday , April 16, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: MENA region closed the trading session on a negative note, following the weakness seen in the global markets. Investors are beginning to seriously doubt the Trump rally which was based on pro-growth measures, especially pushing ahead with fiscal reforms. Further, the geopolitical risk also continues to weigh on investor sentiments, which prefers to exit at current valuations. For the regional markets, seven out of the eight indexes closed in red, while Oman was the only index to close in green for the day. UAE markets led the regional weakness as Dubai and Abu Dhabi were down by 0.9% and 0.8% respectively for the day. Dubai was mostly dragged lower by broad based selling across the index as investors booked profits to stay away from the markets. Abu Dhabi witnessed thin trading volumes as it was mostly dominated by sellers, while buyers preferred to stay away for now. Saudi Arabia closed in negative territory as it was down by 0.3% for the day, which was mostly dragged lower by banks as energy stocks witnessed some buyers during the session. Qatar also closed lower by 0.4% for the day, after rising by 0.7% on the previous day. Kuwait also closed in red as it was down by 0.5% for the day, giving away the gains to turn negative for the week. Egypt closed marginally lower by 0.1% for the day, extending the weekly losses. For the week, regional markets were mostly negative, which was led by 2.1% decline in Abu Dhabi, followed by 1.6% in Dubai and 1.0% in Egypt, while Bahrain was the only index to close higher by 0.2% and Saudi Arabia was flat. International Markets: US markets closed in red as Dow, Nasdaq and S&P were down by 0.7%, 0.5% and 0.7% respectively. European markets closed in red as FTSE, DAX and CAC were all down by 0.3%, 0.4% and 0.6% respectively. Asian markets also closed in red as Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai are down by 0.5%, 0.2% and 0.9% respectively. Headlines (WW) US labor market tightening, inflation trending higher (ME) Arab economies are projected to grow by 2.3% in 2017, 2.7% in 2018 (WW) US consumer prices post first drop in 13 months (GCC) GCC states ink deal to allow members to prepare its own law for selective tax (WW) US business inventories increase, but retail stocks revised lower (GCC) 1% wealth tax 'would fix Gulf budget shortfalls, avert social unrest' (WW) China March fiscal spending surges over 25% Y-o-Y, revenue growth slows (SA) Saudi Arabia implements unified health insurance for private sector employees (WW) China central bank’s net forex sales fall to 10-month low (SA) Bids for record-breaking Saudi debut sukuk cross USD 33 billion (WW) CCB says outstanding personal mortgages at end-Q1 +35.7% Y-o-Y (SA) Saudi green card is 'for investors and scientifically skilled' (WW) Japan March exports seen up for fourth month, imports to jump on oil prices (SA) 80% of job seekers in Saudi Arabia are women (WW) German annual inflation confirmed at 1.5 percent in March (AE) Work permits attracting more overseas students to Dubai (CMD) Gold heads for best week since June on Korea, MidEast jitters (AE) OPEC, UAE to launch new global oil, gas database to improve transparency (CMD) Oil prices finish higher for the week (AE) Dubai Health Authority receives 1,500 job applications (FX) US looks to IMF to strengthen its FX rates oversight (AE) UAE ranked world’s top aid donor for third consecutive year (FX) Dollar set for weekly losses as tensions with Pyongyang rise (QA) Work visa rules get a revision in new Qatari law; No changes in family visa norms (FI) Treasury yields down, stocks fall on global risks (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,509.34 -0.9% -1.6% 0.8% -0.6% ˄ ˅ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,518.14 -0.8% -2.1% 1.7% -0.6% ˄ ˅ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,076.92 -0.3% 0.0% 1.1% -1.9% ˄ ˅ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 7,007.89 -0.5% -0.3% -0.3% 21.9% ˄ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 12,967.38 -0.1% -1.0% -0.2% 5.0% ˅ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 10,451.47 -0.4% -0.0% 0.6% 0.1% ˄ ˅ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,356.22 -0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 11.1% ˅ ˄ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 5,571.62 0.3% -0.7% 0.4% -3.7% ˅ ˅ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 201 449 524 77 178 190 82,175 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 54 151 151 29 70 64 134,453 Saudi (SASEIDX) 167 189 243 870 963 1,111 443,663 Kuwait (KWSE) 383 496 332 113 139 97 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 124 308 371 49 89 93 19,681 Qatar (DSM) 7 11 9 48 100 83 133,605 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 3 5 4 1 3 3 21,048 Oman (MSM30) 23 20 17 9 12 10 16,610 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters ** indicates markets were closed on Sunday. 1
2. MENA Morning Report Sunday , April 16, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 14.1 386.2 8.9 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.2 Current 489.3 11.3 9.1 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.5 - - 0.9 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 178.1 106.9 87.2 1.4 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait 27% 5.0% 5.6% 5.3% 3.3% Oman Average 21.9% 9% 5.0% 0.1% 2.2% 0% 2% -0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain -0.6% -1.9% -3.7% -9% 0% Saudi Bahrain 18% 4.0% 4% Abu Dhabi Qatar 11.1% 4.2% Dubai Egypt Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 8% 6% Previous 600 12.9 11.8 10.9 12 PB Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Sunday , April 16, 2017 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) EMIRATES ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 10.20 -7.27% 0 1 DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 1.41 -3.42% 1,367 1,962 39 GULF NAVIGATION HOLDING PJSC 1.43 -3.38% 69 101 0 0 AL SALAM BANK SUDAN PLC 1.96 -2.97% 271 539 55 85 NATIONAL CEMENT CO PSC 3.10 -2.82% 5 14 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) EMIRATES DRIVING CO PJSC 7.80 -9.72% 1 8 COMMERCIAL BANK INTERNATIONAL 1.56 -9.30% 8 14 586 SUDATEL TELECOM GROUP LTD 0.64 -3.03% 501 326 335 ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 0.70 -2.78% 1,508 1,071 WAHA CAPITAL PJSC 1.85 -2.63% 698 1,308 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) AL AHLIA FOR COOPERATIVE INSUR 13.85 -4.15% 4,289 60,690 106,172 ETIHAD ATHEEB TELECOMM 9.55 -3.54% 759 7,377 86 12,900 ARABIA INSURANCE COOPERATIVE CO 13.35 -3.26% 1,196 16,241 17,085 144,365 JARIR MARKETING CO SJSC 127.75 -3.22% 76 9,850 284 10,622 MAKKAH CONSTRUCTION AND DEV 116.00 -2.73% 37 4,314 DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) 194.00 25.97% 0 0 REAL ESTATE ASSET MANAGEMENT 350.00 -17.65% 9,005 3,489 AL-MASSALEH REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 59.00 9.26% 1,758 99 AL ARGAN INTERNATIONAL RE 180.00 -10.00% 1 0 NATIONAL INVESTMENTS CO KSCP 120.00 9.09% 2,965 341 OSOS HOLDING GROUP CO KSCP 156.00 -6.02% 4 1 MUNSHAAT REAL ESTATE PROJECTS 65.00 8.33% 22,744 1,422 KUWAIT REMAL REAL ESTATE CO KPSC 82.00 -5.75% 25,831 2,183 SOKOUK HOLDING CO KSCP 53.00 8.16% 37,088 1,891 BAYAN INVESTMENT COMPANY KSCP 53.00 -5.36% 3,081 168 Close DoD % Volume Value Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) SUEZ CEMENT COMPANY SAE 23.22 9.07% 96 2,146 6.98 -7.06% 32 229 GULF CANADIAN COMPANY FOR ARAB 10.99 8.17% 71 751 AL ARAFA FOR INVESTMENT 0.15 -6.25% 15 2 ARAB MOLTAQA INVESTMENTS CO 14.57 7.61% 108 1,515 EGYPT GAS CO SAE 81.65 -6.16% 9 743 NASR CO FOR CIVIL WORKS SAE 18.57 6.79% 36 649 EGYPTIAN CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES 5.90 -5.90% 2,279 13,866 MEMPHIS PHARMACEUTICALS 11.53 5.97% 104 1,162 SINAI CEMENT CO SAE 22.30 -4.58% 37 856 Close DoD % Volume Value Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) MEDICARE GROUP QSC 101.50 3.47% 177 17,694 QATAR ISLAMIC INSURANCE CO QSC 61.10 -2.86% 0 3 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QSC 20.00 2.41% 4 87 DLALA BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT 22.11 -1.47% 1 29 QATARI INVESTORS GROUP QSC 61.30 0.82% 63 3,823 MASRAF AL RAYAN QSC 42.50 -1.16% 105 4,480 MAZAYA QATAR REAL ESTATE DEV 14.00 0.57% 1,325 18,500 ALIJARAH HOLDING CO QSC 18.00 -1.15% 827 14,970 EZDAN HOLDING GROUP QSC 15.79 0.57% 381 6,002 AAMAL CO QSC 14.41 -1.10% 26 377 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE 0.86 0.47% 0 627 DAMAC PROPERTIES DUBAI CO PSC 2.86 0.00% 0 6,706 AFKAR S&P UAE UCITS ETF CLASS A 3.92 0.00% 10 EMIRATES REFRESHMENTS PSC 4.05 0.00% ARAB INSURANCE GROUP BSC 1.55 0.00% Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) UMM AL QAIWAIN CEMENT INDUS 1.09 14.74% 1 1 ABU DHABI NATIONAL FOR BUILDING 0.60 5.26% 1 1 RAS AL KHAIMAH CERAMICS PSC 2.28 1.79% 259 BANK OF SHARJAH PJSC 1.40 1.45% 241 ABU DHABI ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 3.64 1.11% 589 2,133 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) AMANA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 20.00 6.67% 2,075 40,200 AXA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 22.25 5.70% 4,904 MOUWASAT MEDICAL SERVICES CO 152.25 3.57% SAUDI KAYAN PETROCHEMICAL CO 8.55 2.40% SAUDI PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES 37.80 2.16% Top Gainers Close (fils) * Dubai Top Gainers Kuwait Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Top Gainers DAR AL-THURAYA REAL ESTATE CO Egypt Top Gainers Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers DELTA CO FOR PRINTING AND PACK Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Sunday , April 16, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 79,794 99.75 -0.2% 9.0% 3,392 90,240 102.50 74.25 17 1.8 4.0% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 42,981 18.15 0.0% -3.5% 654 3,234 20.20 17.15 18 3.7 4.4% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 37,936 149.50 -0.3% 0.0% 63 2,606 157.27 121.36 0 0.0 0.0% 4 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 37,064 69.50 0.0% -4.1% 225 4,164 74.00 51.00 16 2.3 5.8% 5 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 31,602 10.65 -1.4% 6.6% 2,045 5,931 11.55 7.60 11 1.2 4.2% 6 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 28,598 66.00 0.4% 4.8% 2,165 38,099 67.50 48.60 13 2.1 3.4% 7 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 26,664 24.00 0.2% 7.1% 917 5,867 25.80 14.30 48 1.6 2.9% 8 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 20,372 38.20 -2.1% -10.3% 2,803 28,550 46.30 32.00 8 1.3 4.2% 9 Industries Qatar QSC QA 18,516 111.40 -0.5% -5.2% 127 3,874 122.00 94.50 23 2.0 3.6% 10 DP World Ltd AE 17,862 21.52 -1.7% 22.9% 105 614 22.25 15.53 18 2.0 1.8% 11 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 16,728 67.50 0.0% -9.7% 124 2,237 76.00 46.00 82 6.2 0.0% 12 Almarai Co SJSC SA 15,785 74.00 0.0% 8.0% 119 2,351 74.00 51.50 29 4.5 0.0% 13 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 15,082 10.20 -7.3% 0.0% 0 0 11.95 1.57 419 8.3 0.0% 14 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 14,134 7.25 -1.4% 1.7% 4,061 8,017 7.79 5.95 10 1.3 2.1% 15 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 13,209 680.00 -1.4% 9.8% 1,709 3,814 723.81 523.81 14 1.3 4.2% 16 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 13,024 41.80 0.5% 7.2% 381 4,247 43.80 27.80 122 1.8 0.0% 17 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,258 8.10 0.0% -4.6% 279 616 9.00 7.60 7 0.8 4.9% 18 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 11,507 15.79 0.6% 4.5% 381 1,653 20.24 14.63 23 1.4 3.2% 19 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 11,172 20.95 -0.2% -14.0% 657 3,672 25.20 15.90 8 1.0 4.5% 20 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,425 10.55 -0.9% -11.7% 69 194 13.15 9.90 77 1.4 4.7% 21 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 10,038 530.00 -1.9% 8.0% 2,509 4,364 572.73 400.00 15 1.7 2.9% 22 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,951 7.03 -1.0% 1.9% 379 726 7.68 5.66 9 1.2 0.0% 23 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,285 2.62 -1.1% 0.0% 1,142 815 3.10 2.47 18 2.1 3.8% 24 Ooredoo QSC QA 9,240 105.00 0.1% 3.1% 150 4,319 116.10 81.50 15 1.5 3.3% 25 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 9,037 60.25 -0.4% 0.0% 131 2,107 61.75 37.00 15 2.1 0.0% 26 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 8,879 22.20 -0.7% -11.2% 547 3,236 25.90 16.40 9 1.1 3.2% 27 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 8,757 42.50 -1.2% 13.0% 105 1,224 44.20 32.10 15 2.5 4.7% 28 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 8,354 26.00 -2.6% -0.4% 544 3,774 27.50 18.00 9 1.1 4.0% 29 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,239 10.30 0.5% -10.8% 213 585 11.80 8.55 9 0.8 6.3% 30 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 7,913 5.88 -0.3% 5.6% 3,375 5,404 6.29 4.90 9 1.3 7.7% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 564,406 3.2% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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