MENA Market Report - 15 March

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , March 15, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets ended the session on a slightly negative note as weaker oil prices and Fed's policy outcome weighs on investor sentiments. The regional markets are witnessing selling pressure since the start of the week as investors are concerned about rise in cost of funds and strengthening of local currencies post the interest rate hike by the Fed. For the regional markets, four indexes closed n red, while three ended in green and one remained unchanged for the day. Kuwait was the best performing index as it was up by 1.2% for the day, second consecutive session of gains. Egypt was the worst performer as it was down by 1.1% for the day, profit booking after rising by more than 8.0% in the previous few sessions. UAE markets closed on a mixed note as Dubai was down by 0.9%, while Abu Dhabi was marginally up by 0.1% for the day. March has reversed the gains incurred during the month of January to turn negative for the year for most of the GCC markets. Qatar closed lower by 0.5% for the day, extending the losses to 1.5% in the past three sessions. Saudi Arabia closed mostly flat for the day after closing lower by 0.7% on the previous day. The trend for the week remains negative as the index is down by 1.8% for the week and 5.8% for the year. Bahrain closed up by 0.3%, while Oman was down by 0.3% for the day. International Markets: US markets closed on a negative note as Dow, S&P and Nasdaq were down by 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.3% respectively. European markets closed in red as FTSE, DAX and CAC were down by 0.1%, 0.01% and 0.5% respectively. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a negative note as Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai are down by 0.3%, 0.6% and 0.1% respectively. Headlines (WW) US producer prices climbed more than forecast in Feb (ME) Middle East CEOs become more optimistic on business outlook (WW) US inflation expectations flatten after run-up (GCC) GCC braces for higher cost of funds and currency appreciation (WW) UK firms scale back on hiring plans ahead of Brexit (SA) Saudi receives interest from GCC firms keen to list on its SME market (WW) China Jan-Feb factory output +6.3% y-o-y, investment +8.9%, beating forecasts (SA) Saudi Arabia can achieve budget surplus by 2019 (WW) China property sales surge despite government efforts to cool market (SA) Japanese firms look to tap into Saudi Arabia (WW) Japan lays groundwork for free education policy to help economy (AE) UAE should guarantee SME loans to boost lending (WW) Euro zone industry output rises less than expected in January (AE) Dubai makes a mark in quality of living ranking (WW) German investor morale improves less than expected in March (AE) UAE banking sector under tremendous pressure to innovate (CMD) Oil edges off three-month lows, eyes on US inventory (AE) UAE retail visitors on the rise despite low oil (CMD) Gold prices steady ahead of Fed meeting (QA) QFC's 5-year roadmap to boost private sector (FX) Sterling slips as Brexit talks get green light (OM) Oman Education and Training Investment H1 profit rises (FX) Dollar rises before expected Fed rate rise, stocks fall (KW) Kuwait's USD 8 billion bonds trade near Abu Dhabi after debut issue (FI) US 10-Year Bond Yield Closes at Highest Since September 2014 (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,468.58 -0.9% -1.5% -4.5% -1.8% ˅ ˄ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,387.96 0.1% -1.6% -3.6% -3.5% ˅ ˄ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 6,790.71 0.0% -1.8% -2.6% -5.8% ˅ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,790.40 1.2% 1.2% 0.1% 18.1% ˅ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 12,789.52 -1.1% -0.5% 7.1% 3.6% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 10,314.20 -0.5% -1.5% -3.6% -1.2% ˅ ˄ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,374.57 0.3% 1.6% 1.8% 12.6% ˄ ˄ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 5,697.61 -0.3% -1.6% -1.4% -1.5% ˅ ˄ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 385 580 550 175 215 197 82,570 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 81 173 154 39 73 63 115,865 Saudi (SASEIDX) 199 229 254 998 1,110 1,125 424,590 Kuwait (KWSE) 518 444 278 165 134 88 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 200 371 360 65 101 92 20,184 Qatar (DSM) 16 9 8 183 84 78 131,279 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 3 5 4 3 3 2 21,243 Oman (MSM30) 17 19 18 16 11 10 16,983 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters ** indicates markets were closed on Sunday. 1
2. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , March 15, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 13.4 12.0 12 PB Previous 489.3 12.9 11.1 10.5 9.3 386.2 8.6 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.2 Current 600 1.3 2.2 1.5 1.4 - - 0.9 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 178.1 0 106.9 87.2 1.4 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 8% 27% 18.1% 5.7% 6% 4.7% 18% 5.5% 4.3% 3.9% 4% 3.3% 2.3% 2% 3.6% 0% -9% 0.0% 0.0% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt 12.6% 9% Qatar Bahrain Oman Average -1.8% -3.5% -1.2% -1.5% -5.8% -18% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , March 15, 2017 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ISLAMIC ARAB INSURANCE CO PSC 0.52 -10.00% 63,707 34,968 AIR ARABIA PJSC 1.19 -6.72% 20,728 25,555 MARKA PJSC 1.39 -6.47% 121 174 7,979 SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 1.93 -4.15% 24,314 47,942 24,807 ARABTEC HOLDING PJSC 0.89 -4.04% 22,917 20,826 Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) METHAQ TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO 0.86 -5.81% 2,544 2,256 28,267 ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 0.76 -5.26% 3,172 2,477 2,955 1,847 INTERNATIONAL FISH FARMING 1.97 -2.54% 2,284 4,558 6,143 4,393 AGTHIA GROUP PJSC 6.47 -1.85% 18 120 0.97% 40 41 ALDAR PROPERTIES PJSC 2.33 -1.72% 3,753 8,821 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) AL JAZIRA MAWTEN REIT 19.00 6.84% 7,944 146,107 ALDREES PETROLEUM AND TRANS 29.92 -8.09% 659 20,580 ALJAZIRA TAKAFUL TAAWUNI CO SJSC 27.20 5.88% 583 15,427 AL AHLIA FOR COOPERATIVE 12.55 -7.57% 2,698 35,251 AL TAYYAR TRAVEL GROUP HOLDING 29.80 5.70% 7,410 214,860 MEDITERRANEAN AND GULF 23.90 -5.86% 429 10,584 SAUDI RESEARCH AND MARKETING 27.30 5.49% 653 17,363 SAUDI INDIAN COMPANY FOR COOP 18.05 -5.82% 777 14,454 AXA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 18.90 5.29% 952 17,539 BURUJ COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 32.00 -5.63% 1,071 35,302 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) AL SALAM GROUP HOLDING CO KSCP 50.00 10.00% 3,876 185 PALMS AGRO PRODUCTION CO KSCP 112.00 -13.39% 13 2 NATIONAL RANGES CO KPSC 29.00 8.62% 7,379 206 GULF FRANCHISING HOLDING CO KSCP 58.00 -8.62% 68 4 MUNSHAAT REAL ESTATE PROJECTS 59.00 8.47% 10,654 604 HAYAT COMMUNICATIONS CO KSCP 106.00 -7.55% 3,756 414 TAAMEER REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT 30.00 8.33% 8,143 235 SHUAIBA INDUSTRIAL COMPANY KPSC 375.00 -6.67% 29 11 ABYAAR REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT 30.50 8.20% 55,742 1,636 AL MADINA FOR FINANCE INVEST 53.00 -5.66% 1,570 86 Top Gainers Close DoD % Volume Value Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) EGYPT ALUMINUM CO SAE 20.83 17.86% 121 2,328 SAUDI EGYPTIAN INVESTMENT 49.07 -5.71% 0 13 NATIONAL CO FOR MAIZE PRODUCTS 16.24 9.98% 72 1,113 ASEC CO FOR MINING SAE 7.45 -4.97% 71 540 ARAB ALUMINUM CO SAE 10.43 9.11% 34 337 GULF CANADIAN COMPANY FOR ARAB 7.81 -4.61% 8 63 KAFR EL ZAYAT PESTICIDES CHEM 28.04 7.99% 40 1,084 ISMAILIA DEVELOPMENT AND REAL 3.28 -4.27% 6 21 DEVELOPMENT AND ENGINEERING 9.93 7.35% 64 615 MARIDIVE AND OIL SERVICES SAE 0.27 -3.70% 64 18 Top Gainers Close DoD % Volume Value Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) DLALA BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT 23.50 6.82% 656 14,924 AHLI BANK QSC 37.00 -9.86% 0 4 ALIJARAH HOLDING CO QSC 16.95 4.96% 2,597 42,976 UNITED DEVELOPMENT CO PSC 21.15 -7.09% 541 11,880 QATAR ISLAMIC BANK SAQ 101.80 2.52% 149 15,022 ISLAMIC HOLDING GROUP QSC 65.00 -2.62% 82 5,394 AAMAL CO QSC 14.76 2.50% 231 3,361 BARWA REAL ESTATE CO QSC 34.80 -2.01% 1,184 41,627 COMMERCIAL BANK QSC 30.50 2.46% 4,511 135,949 ALIJARAH HOLDING CO QSC 17.79 -1.91% 922 16,568 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ARAB INSURANCE GROUP BSC 1.45 14.48% 63 86 AL SALAM BANK SUDAN PLC 1.80 4.44% 5,492 9,675 MASHREQBANK PSC 77.00 3.90% 5 414 NATIONAL CENTRAL COOLING CO PJSC 1.87 2.67% 4,323 UNION PROPERTIES PJSC 0.98 1.63% 25,518 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) GULF CEMENT CO PSC 1.10 2.73% 3 3 FIRST GULF BANK PJSC 12.05 1.66% 2,365 SUDATEL TELECOM GROUP LTD 0.63 1.59% RAK PROPERTIES PJSC 0.72 1.39% SHARJAH CEMENT AND INDUSTRIAL 1.03 Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Dubai Top Gainers Qatar Egypt Kuwait Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , March 15, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 76,620 95.75 -0.3% 4.6% 3,079 78,638 98.50 73.25 16 1.8 4.2% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 41,797 17.65 -0.3% -6.1% 857 4,121 20.20 17.15 17 3.6 4.5% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 36,665 144.50 0.0% -2.4% 671 26,652 157.27 121.36 0 0.0 2.0% 4 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 35,209 66.00 0.4% -9.0% 378 6,648 74.00 51.00 15 2.2 6.1% 5 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 27,416 63.25 0.8% 0.4% 1,537 25,931 67.50 48.60 13 2.0 3.6% 6 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 25,617 23.05 2.0% 2.9% 2,265 13,926 25.80 14.30 46 1.5 3.0% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 20,325 38.10 -1.8% -10.6% 888 9,020 46.30 32.00 8 1.3 4.2% 8 Industries Qatar QSC QA 18,930 113.90 0.5% -3.1% 370 11,581 122.00 94.50 23 2.1 3.5% 9 DP World Ltd AE 18,177 21.90 1.2% 25.1% 568 3,386 22.25 15.53 18 2.1 1.4% 10 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 16,672 67.25 0.7% -10.0% 211 3,793 76.00 46.00 82 6.1 0.0% 11 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 16,265 11.00 0.0% 0.0% 3 8 11.95 1.57 452 8.9 0.0% 12 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 15,010 12.25 1.7% -4.7% 2,365 7,889 14.00 10.50 9 1.5 8.2% 13 Almarai Co SJSC SA 14,937 70.00 0.0% 2.2% 174 3,247 71.00 49.31 28 4.3 1.3% 14 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 14,166 9.90 -1.0% -0.9% 1,229 3,313 10.90 7.60 10 1.1 4.5% 15 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 14,134 7.25 -0.1% 1.7% 5,067 10,002 7.79 5.75 10 1.3 2.1% 16 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 13,480 730.00 0.0% 12.3% 1,184 2,832 760.00 550.00 14 1.3 4.1% 17 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,561 8.30 0.0% -2.2% 406 918 9.00 7.56 7 0.8 4.8% 18 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 12,405 39.80 0.8% 2.1% 552 5,860 43.80 27.80 116 1.7 0.0% 19 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 11,214 15.39 0.3% 1.9% 731 3,090 20.24 14.63 23 1.4 3.2% 20 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 10,670 20.00 -2.2% -17.9% 520 2,774 25.20 15.90 8 0.9 4.8% 21 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,626 10.75 0.5% -10.0% 196 563 13.15 9.90 78 1.4 0.0% 22 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 10,477 610.00 0.0% 13.0% 2,273 4,543 630.00 431.82 15 1.7 2.8% 23 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 10,290 7.27 0.4% 5.4% 2,193 4,342 7.68 5.66 9 1.2 5.5% 24 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,285 2.62 -0.8% 0.0% 11,487 8,195 3.10 2.48 18 2.1 3.8% 25 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,888 101.00 0.5% -0.8% 220 6,101 116.10 81.50 15 1.5 3.5% 26 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 8,590 57.25 -0.9% 6.0% 139 2,127 59.75 35.30 14 2.0 5.2% 27 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 8,437 40.95 -1.4% 8.9% 595 6,693 43.35 32.10 15 2.4 4.9% 28 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,282 10.35 0.0% -10.4% 611 1,686 11.80 8.55 9 0.8 6.3% 29 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 8,202 20.50 0.0% -18.0% 264 1,445 25.90 16.40 8 1.0 3.4% 30 Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co SJSC SA 7,558 68.00 -1.1% -9.3% 391 7,095 82.00 58.00 27 4.1 3.7% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 542,905 3.6% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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