MENA Market Report - 1 May

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , May 01, 2018 Overview Regional Markets: MENA region ended the last trading session of the month on a negative note, which has otherwise witnessed mixed sentiments during the month of April. The trading activity within the region has been clearly focused on Saudi Arabia and Egypt, both of them have shown an improving outlook on the back of measures/reforms introduced by the government. Saudi Arabia has witnessed increased traction over the past one month or so on the back of its inclusion in the secondary FTSE emerging markets index coupled with landmark changes, which has attracted interest from foreign investors. For the month, Egypt was the best performer with gains of 4.8%, followed by 4.3% in Saudi Arabia, while Bahrain and Kuwait led the losers with losses of 4.6% and 3.3% respectively. UAE markets ended on a mixed note during the month as Dubai was down by 1.4%, while Abu Dhabi was up by 1.8%. Going forward, investors will continue to focus on individual markets and also take cues from quarterly earnings to gauge the actual recovery, which has been widely anticipated across the region. Further, oil prices will also continue to play an important role, including supporting the regional governments in accelerating their spending programmes along with the projects that have been previously put on hold due to an adverse economic environment. International Markets: US markets ended on a negative note as DJIA , S&P and Nasdaq were all down by 0.6%, 0.8% and 0.8% respectively for the day. European markets closed on a positive note as FTSE, CAC and DAX were all up by 0.1%, 0.7% and 0.3% respectively for the day. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets opened on a positive note as Nikkei was up by 0.1%, while Hang Seng and Shanghai remained closed for the day. Headlines (WW) US annual inflation measures jump; consumer spending rises (GCC) GCC puts safeguard tariff on some iron and steel products (WW) US pending home sales rise 0.4% in March (SA) New project to reduce youth unemployment in Saudi Arabia’s small towns (WW) Atlanta Fed sees US economy growing at 4.1% in second quarter (AE) UAE investors invested USD 16bn in foreign countries in 2016 (WW) China official factory PMI eases slightly in April, export orders slow (AE) Abu Dhabi welcomes record 1.28mn hotel guests in Q1 (WW) Banks push back BOE rate forecasts after growth data shock (EG) Egypt making headway in tackling red tape (WW) Euro zone lending picks up, money supply growth slows in March (EG) Egypt is confident USD 23bn debt inflows won't flow out (WW) Euro zone banks continue to work off bad debt (EG) Egypt's M2 money supply up 21.85% YoY in March (WW) German inflation set to hold steady in April, regional data suggests (QA) QFC showcases business opportunities in Qatar to German investors (CMD) OPEC April oil output hits year low on Venezuela slide (QA) Qatar tourism achieves remarkable growth abroad (CMD) Gold near six-week low as dollar firms, Korea fears ease (QA) Defiant Qatar’s trade surplus records 45.3% jump (FX) April set to be strongest month for dollar since Trump election (BH) New industry watchdog expected to boost Bahrain's real estate demand (FX) Sterling extends losses as investors fret over politics and data (OM) Oman GDP growth picking up, deficits shrinking fast (FI) Treasury yields hold ground after Fed’s favorite inflation measure hits 2% (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,065.96 0.6% 0.8% -1.4% -9.0% ˅ ˅ ˅ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,669.52 -0.3% -0.6% 1.8% 6.2% ˄ ˄ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 8,208.87 -0.2% -0.5% 4.3% 13.6% ˄ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 4,834.90 0.9% 1.0% -3.3% 0.3% ˄ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 18,295.57 -0.0% -0.4% 4.8% 21.8% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 9,111.97 -0.3% 0.3% 6.3% 6.9% ˄ ˄ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,257.88 -0.4% -0.4% -4.6% -5.5% ˅ ˅ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 4,729.05 -0.1% 0.1% -0.9% -7.3% ˅ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 146 161 203 64 69 90 81,885 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 85 69 73 42 36 37 1,35,575 Saudi (SASEIDX) 213 183 191 1,398 1,119 1,049 5,17,863 Kuwait (KWSE) 67 59 73 13 195 125 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 370 370 343 120 114 100 31,862 Qatar (DSM) 17 11 11 111 81 84 1,07,700 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 8 6 6 4 3 3 20,921 Oman (MSM30) 29 21 18 9 13 12 13,278 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , May 01, 2018 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios 13.0 11.2 12 8 PE (+ve.eps) 15.1 16 12.3 PB 8.2 1.0 1.3 2.7 149.2 109.8 1.2 - - 0.8 0.8 Bahrain Oman - 88.2 62.6 1.4 0 291.3 255.0 300 1.8 Current 11.2 7.5 4 Previous 600 88.0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Dubai Average Abu Dhabi Saudi 5.6% 5.9% 5.0% 6.0% 4.8% 4.2% 3.7% 4% 2.5% 2% 0.0% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 8% 6% Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Average 24% 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9% -12% 21.8% 13.6% 6.9% 6.2% 0.3% -5.5% -9.0% Dubai -7.3% Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , May 01, 2018 Dubai Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DRAKE AND SCULL INTERNATIONAL 1.22 -9.63% 0 62,979 1,627 DXB ENTERTAINMENTS PJSC 0.39 -3.74% 0 3,760 2,841 7,797 ISLAMIC ARAB INSURANCE CO PSC 0.42 -1.88% 7,591 3,203 1.49% 399 539 SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 1.09 -1.80% 1,415 1,556 1.49% 556 375 DUBAI INVESTMENTS PJSC 1.90 -1.55% 4,885 9,356 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) RAS AL KHAIMAH CEMENT CO PSC 0.72 7.46% 35 24 AXA GREEN CRESCENT INSURANCE CO 0.59 -9.23% 3 2 DANA GAS PJSC 0.99 4.21% 39,776 38,583 GULF MEDICAL PROJECTS CO PSC 1.80 -5.26% 112 207 EMIRATES DRIVING CO PJSC 7.50 4.17% 9 65 SHARJAH CEMENT AND INDUSTRIAL 1.05 -4.55% 170 183 INTERNATIONAL HOLDING COMPANY 1.45 3.57% 150 214 INVEST BANK PSC 2.20 -4.35% 149 335 ABU DHABI NATIONAL FOR BUILDING 0.64 3.23% 3,203 2,018 METHAQ TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO 0.77 -3.75% 25 20 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) SAUDI RESEARCH AND MARKETING 117.20 3.72% 793 91,284 ABDULLAH SAAD MOHAMMED ABO M 11.98 -5.67% 178 2,198 NATIONAL GYPSUM CO SJSC 14.46 3.43% 2,306 32,785 RABIGH REFINING AND PETROCHEM 27.50 -5.50% 4,377 1,23,878 AL AHSA DEVELOPMENT CO SJSC 12.30 3.19% 3,177 38,469 SAUDI INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEM 20.88 -4.40% 3,344 71,430 ARAB SEA INFORMATION SYSTEMS CO 13.00 3.17% 23 293 SAUDI PUBLIC TRANSPORT COMPANY 16.34 -3.66% 1,144 19,041 FAWAZ ABDULAZIZ ALHOKAIR CO SJSC 29.40 2.98% 2,571 74,507 NATIONAL AGRICULTURE MARKETING 33.30 -3.06% 804 27,184 Top Gainers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Top Losers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) EFFECT REAL ESTATE COMPANY KPSC 22.70 50.33% 3 0 REAL ESTATE TRADE CENTERS CO 21.70 -10.33% 4 0 SULTAN CENTER FOOD PRODUCTS CO 64.70 22.08% 4,838 285 AWJ HOLDING COMPANY KSCP 50.40 -10.00% 50 3 21.20 -9.79% 1 0 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) EMAAR PROPERTIES PJSC 5.79 2.66% 0 56,020 MARKA PJSC 0.28 2.23% 0 DAMAC PROPERTIES DUBAI CO PSC 2.77 1.84% AMANAT HOLDINGS PJSC 1.36 DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 0.68 Egypt Kuwait Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Top Gainers FUTURE KID ENTERTAINMENT AND RE 125.00 9.65% 0 0 CREDIT RATING AND COLLECTION CO TAMDEEN REAL ESTATE CO KPSC 383.00 9.43% 0 0 AL-ARABIYA REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 28.70 -9.18% 14 0 SENERGY HOLDING COMPANY KSCP 26.90 7.60% 1 0 MANAZEL HOLDING CO KPSC 35.90 -7.71% 8,035 301 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) ATLAS FOR LAND RECLAMATION & AG 11.17 13.40% 0 7,102 AL EZZ DEKHEILA STEEL COMPANY ALE 1109.75 -5.67% 0 153 INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING ENTE 12.57 10.46% 114 1,366 EL EBOUR COMPANY FOR REAL EST 8.56 -4.57% 101 885 ISMAILIA NATIONAL CO FOR FOOD IN 9.68 9.75% 302 2,792 ORASCOM TELECOM MEDIA & TECHN 0.86 -4.44% 1,27,497 1,12,198 INTERNATIONAL COMPANY FOR INVES 14.61 9.60% 7 104 GOLDEN COAST EL SOKHNA COMPANY 6.18 -4.19% 310 1,955 EGYPT GAS CO SAE 89.21 7.69% 29 2,474 ARABIAN CEMENT CO SAE 8.59 -4.13% 792 6,951 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 18.69 1.03% 85 1,586 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QPSC 10.80 -6.33% 39 433 QATAR FUEL CO QSC 140.62 1.00% 283 39,639 QATAR OMAN INVESTMENT CO QSC 7.00 -4.11% 49 347 QATARI GERMAN COMPANY FOR MED 5.80 0.87% 40 229 QATAR NAVIGATION QPSC 56.20 -3.27% 57 3,262 ZAD HOLDING CO SAQ 70.00 0.72% 24 1,695 QATARI INVESTORS GROUP QSC 35.10 -2.88% 78 2,793 DOHA BANK QPSC 27.09 0.71% 184 4,963 AAMAL CO QPSC 11.09 -2.63% 536 6,019 Top Gainers Qatar Top Losers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , May 01, 2018 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 91,675 114.60 -2.9% 12.6% 7,683 2,34,803 123.80 94.75 19 2.1 3.7% 2 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 44,104 82.70 0.4% 20.6% 404 8,903 86.00 65.10 16 2.6 4.8% 3 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 40,609 17.15 -0.9% -2.0% 1,152 5,378 18.85 15.75 17 3.5 4.7% 4 Qatar National Bank QPSC QA 38,138 151.00 0.5% 19.8% 190 7,864 159.00 115.01 10 1.9 4.0% 5 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 36,792 12.40 -0.4% 21.0% 1,404 4,739 12.65 10.05 14 1.3 5.6% 6 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp Ltd SA 36,441 84.10 0.5% 30.2% 1,939 43,493 85.60 61.00 15 2.5 4.8% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 35,891 67.30 0.3% 22.1% 1,212 21,752 68.60 38.00 14 2.1 2.5% 8 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 25,509 22.96 -0.9% 9.0% 2,361 14,457 26.05 19.76 14 1.3 3.0% 9 Industries Qatar QSC QA 18,529 112.00 0.0% 15.5% 349 10,732 115.00 85.00 19 2.1 4.5% 10 DP World Ltd AE 18,468 22.25 0.6% -11.0% 275 1,665 27.06 20.39 16 1.7 1.8% 11 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 17,760 57.00 1.8% 9.4% 481 7,317 58.70 39.50 93 2.6 0.0% 12 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 16,343 10.80 0.9% 31.7% 55 162 11.00 7.95 7 1.0 3.7% 13 Almarai Co SJSC SA 15,999 60.00 0.7% 11.5% 504 8,059 78.64 50.00 28 4.0 1.3% 14 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 15,519 29.10 0.7% 23.7% 1,720 13,346 29.60 20.50 12 1.3 5.2% 15 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 15,416 746.00 0.1% 7.6% 3,579 8,875 761.90 619.05 14 1.5 3.6% 16 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 14,046 9.50 0.0% -3.1% 1 1 10.00 4.90 75 7.9 0.0% 17 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 13,079 32.70 1.1% 21.1% 212 1,845 33.50 21.55 12 1.5 4.3% 18 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 12,069 48.70 1.6% -17.6% 1,692 21,972 75.60 45.00 - 4.7 0.0% 19 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 11,999 15.00 0.1% 19.2% 1,048 4,194 15.36 10.10 11 1.2 4.9% 20 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 11,287 5.79 2.7% -11.4% 9,802 15,453 8.43 5.40 7 0.8 0.0% 21 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 10,863 515.00 0.4% -1.6% 4,985 8,534 590.91 424.55 17 1.7 2.7% 22 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 10,607 33.00 0.9% 15.8% 190 1,676 33.40 25.30 11 1.2 4.2% 23 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 10,439 69.60 0.1% 18.0% 149 2,773 74.50 52.00 16 2.3 4.7% 24 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,950 7.03 -1.0% 3.4% 4,769 9,128 7.50 6.50 9 1.2 6.0% 25 Kingdom Holding Co SA 8,874 8.98 -0.2% 0.0% 304 727 11.30 7.90 50 1.1 0.0% 26 Arab National Bank SA 8,360 31.35 -0.9% 26.6% 221 1,844 33.65 19.15 10 1.3 3.8% 27 Alinma Bank SJSC SA 8,344 20.86 0.9% 8.9% 27,646 1,53,786 21.58 14.00 15 1.5 3.8% 28 Abu Dhabi National Oil Co for Dist AE 8,338 2.45 0.8% -7.5% 694 463 2.90 2.42 17 10.8 2.4% 29 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 8,131 11.21 -1.4% -7.2% 257 790 16.30 6.19 18 1.0 0.0% 30 Emaar Malls PJSC AE 7,866 2.22 -0.9% 4.2% 1,909 1,154 2.66 2.00 14 1.8 4.5% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 6,21,447 3.5% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Limited (“AMCL”). AMCL is a company incorporated in the Cayman Islands as an Exempt Company established under the laws of the Cayman Monetary Authority. The information contained in this report does not constitute any offer to sell securities or the solicitation of any offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended to be used by experienced investment persons with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCL is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority, and as such should not be relied upon by or distributed to “Retail Clients”. 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