Malaysian Markets Weekly Wrap - Week Ended 7 July

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP : Week ended 7 July 2017  The FBM KLCI moved in a trading range before closing at 1,760 points to register a loss of 0.2% for the week.  Regional markets softened amid concerns that interest rates may trend up based on the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s meeting in June.  Looking ahead, investors are expected to continue monitoring the pace of global economic activities as well as the upcoming Congressional testimony by the Federal Reserve’s chairperson on 12 July 2017. Performance of Key Indices (As at 7 Jul 17) Region Market FBM KLCI FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Shariah Index Local South East Asia North Asia Wall Street Europe Straits Times Index Jakarta Composite Index China ‘H’ Shares Shanghai Composite Index Dow Jones Nasdaq STOXX Europe 50 Index Index 1,760 12,766 % Weekly Change -0.2 -0.4 3,229 +0.1 5,815 10,252 3,218 21,414 6,153 3,116 -0.3 -1.1 +0.8 +0.3 +0.2 -0.2 1. Stock Market Commentary Market Comments Subdued amid lack of fresh leads and lower oil prices: The FBM KLCI moved in a Local trading range amid a lack of fresh leads and the softening of crude oil prices to the US$47/brl level. The FBM KLCI subsequently closed at 1,760 points to register a weekly loss of 0.2%. The FBM EMAS Shariah Index eased by 0.4% to close at 12,766 points for the week. Meanwhile, the FBM Small Cap Index closed 0.4% lower over the week. Regional Pressured by tighter monetary policy and geopolitical concerns: Regional markets were weighed down by concerns that interest rates may trend up in the year ahead based on the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting. Sentiment was also dampened by increased geopolitical tensions in the Korean Peninsula following the recent launch of a test missile by North Korea. The Hong Kong market fell by 1.6% amid declines in technology stocks and concerns over higher U.S. interest rates. In South-East Asia, markets were subdued with the Indonesian market closing 0.3% lower while the Singapore market inched up by 0.1% over the same period. Down under, the Australian market edged down by 0.3% on the back of softer commodity prices over the week. Page 1 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Regional Markets Softened Amid Global Concerns over Higher Interest Rates
2. Comments Resilient economic data supported sentiment : The Dow remained well-supported at above the 21,300-point level as sentiment was underpinned by resilient manufacturing and services data for June. The Dow inched up by 0.3% to close at 21,414 points while the Nasdaq firmed by 0.2% to 6,153 points over the week. Europe European markets, as proxied by the STOXX Europe 50 Index, eased by 0.2% amid signs of moderating economic activities. Selected Markets’ Weekly Performances 1,760 17,378 12,766 1,764 17,444 12,822 % Weekly change -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 South-East Asia Philippines Singapore Indonesia Thailand 7,889 3,229 5,815 1,569 7,843 3,226 5,830^ 1,575 +0.6 +0.1 -0.3 -0.3 +15.3 +12.1 +9.8 +1.7 North Asia SH Comp (China) TOPIX (Japan) South Korea Taiwan MSCI China China*, H Share MSCI FEXJ# Hong Kong 3,218 1,607 2,380 10,297 7,388 10,252 583 25,341 3,192 1,612 2,392 10,395 7,463 10,365 589 25,765 +0.8 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.6 +3.7 +5.8 +17.4 +11.3 +23.3 +9.1 +20.5 +15.2 7 Jul 17 FBM KLCI FBM Small Cap Index FBM EMAS Shariah Index 30 Jun 17 % YTD change +7.2 +18.1 +6.3 Global FTSE 100 (U.K.) 7,351 7,313 +0.5 +2.9 Dow Jones 21,414 21,350 +0.3 +8.4 Nasdaq 6,153 6,140 +0.2 +14.3 Europe** 3,116 3,122 -0.2 +3.5 MSCI World# 464 465 -0.2 +10.0 Australia 5,704 5,721 -0.3 +0.7 * ** # ^ Hang Seng China Enterprises Index STOXX Europe 50 Index in USD As at 22 Jun 17 Note: The Indonesian stock market was closed from 23 Jun 17 to 30 Jun 17 due to the Ramadan celebration. 2. Economic Commentary Market Commentary Malaysia - Malaysia’s export growth accelerated to 32.5% in May from 20.4% in April amid higher exports of electrical & electronic (E&E) products and refined petroleum. Similarly, import growth increased to 30.4% from 24.7% over the same period. The trade surplus narrowed to RM5.5 billion in May from RM8.7 billion in April. Page 2 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Market Wall Street
3. U .S. On a weekly basis, the Ringgit eased marginally by 0.1% to close at RM4.30 against the US$. On a year-to-date basis, the Ringgit firmed by 4.4% against the greenback. - Led by more jobs added in the services sector, total new non-farm jobs rose to 222,000 in June compared with 152,000 jobs created in May and expectations of 179,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate inched up to 4.4% from 4.3% over the same period. U.S. Non-Farm Jobs Composition (‘000) Services Manufacturing Construction Total May 2017 +146 -2 +9 +152 June 2017 +162 +1 +16 +222 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) - U.S. Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 57.8 points in June from 54.9 points in May due to higher new orders and production. The non-manufacturing PMI expanded to 57.4 points from 56.9 points over the same period as output and new orders picked up. South Korea - South Korea’s export growth climbed to 13.7% in June from 13.3% in May on the back of higher exports to the U.S. and Japan. Meanwhile, import growth eased to 18.0% from 19.1% over the same period. The trade surplus widened to US$11.4 billion in June from US$5.7 billion in May. Indonesia - Indonesia’s inflation rate edged up to 4.4% in June from 4.3% in May amid higher housing and transportation costs. Eurozone - Retail sales increased by 2.5% in May following a 2.4% growth in April due to higher sales of non-food products. - The composite PMI decreased to a 4-month low of 56.3 points in June from 56.8 points in May as services activities moderated. Commodity - On a weekly basis, Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.5% to close at US$46.71/brl on rising U.S. crude production. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices moved 3.9% lower to close at US$44.48/brl. - The CRB Commodity Price Index, which measures a broad range of commodities such as food, metals and raw materials, inched down by 0.2% to close at 445.54 points. Page 3 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Malaysia’s Export Growth Composition Exports (% YoY) April 2017 May 2017 Electrical & Electronics +22.4 +31.3 Refined Petroleum -15.8 +75.6 Crude Petroleum +65.7 +56.8 Palm Oil +26.1 +25.0 Total +20.4 +32.5
4. Regional & Global GDP Statistics Source: Bloomberg 2017F 6.6 6.5 5.2 4.7 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.1 2.3 3.4 1.3 2.1 1.7 2016 6.7 6.9 5.0 4.2 2.0 2.0 2.8 1.5 2.5 3.2 1.0 1.6 1.7 f=consensus forecast * 2018F 6.3 6.5 5.4 4.6 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.8 3.5 1.0 2.1 1.6 MARKET BRIEF GDP Growth (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S.* Eurozone* IMF forecast Regional & Global Inflation Statistics Inflation rate (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S. Eurozone 2016 2.0 1.8 3.5 2.1 2.4 -0.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.2 -0.1 1.3 0.2 2017F 1.9 3.3 4.3 3.8 1.9 1.0 1.9 1.0 2.1 1.4 0.6 2.2 1.6 2018F 2.2 3.3 4.4 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.9 1.3 2.2 1.7 0.8 2.2 1.5 Source: Bloomberg f=consensus forecast Regional & Global Markets’ Valuations Australia China ‘H’ Shares Hong Kong Shanghai Comp Thailand Singapore Taiwan Philippines Indonesia Japan South Korea U.S.(1) Europe Historic P/E(2) (x) 14.60 10.84 12.73 15.86 12.84 14.27 15.28 16.10 14.78 17.51 11.32 17.27(3) 13.93(3) Prospective P/E (x) 15.63 8.16 12.23 14.09 15.42 14.70 14.61 19.12 16.65 14.18 10.16 18.58 15.39 Estimated Dividend Yield (%) 4.52 3.68 3.43 1.98 2.97 3.45 3.87 1.58 2.07 2.05 1.61 2.03 3.97 Source: Bloomberg, 7 Jul 17 (1) S&P500 Index (2) 2007-2016 historical average (3) 1997-2016 historical average Page 4 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
5. Looking ahead , investors are expected to continue monitoring the pace of global economic activities as well as the upcoming Congressional testimony by the Federal Reserve’s chairperson on 12 July 2017. In addition, geopolitical developments in the Korean Peninsula may also impact investor confidence as last Monday’s firing of a test missile by North Korea rattled regional markets. On the domestic front, the robust export momentum for May has helped Malaysia’s exports to expand by 23.3% for the first five months of this year. If the double-digit export pace is sustained in the second half of 2017, Malaysia’s GDP growth for 2017 is expected to rise towards the 4.7%-5.0% level. As at 7 July 2017, the local market traded below its historical average P/E ratio: - P/E valuation: prospective P/E ratio of 16.2x versus its 10-year historical average of 16.4x. - Dividend yield: 3.23% was above the 12-month F.D. rate of 3.11%*. The average P/E ratio of the regional markets, as proxied by the MSCI Far East ex-Japan Index, was below its 10-year historical average: - Regional P/E valuations: 13.2x versus the 10-year historical average of 13.5x. * The average F.D. rate offered by four key domestic banks Bursa Securities’ Market Valuations FBM KLCI PER (x) Dividend Yield 3mth InterBk 12mth FD, % ^ 7 Jul 17 1,760 16.19 3.23% 3.43% 3.10% 2007-2016 historical average 30 Jun 17 1,764 16.34 3.19% 3.43% 3.10% Source: Bloomberg Bursa Securities' 10-Year P/E Ratio MSCI FE ex-Japan's 10-Year P/E Ratio 25 20 7 Jul 17 P/E: 16.2x 7 Jul 17 P/E: 13.2x P/E Ratio (x) 20 P/E Ratio (x) 10-yr av.^ 16.43 3.56% 3.27% - 15 10 15 10 Average: 16.4x 5 Average: 13.5x 5 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Page 5 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF 3. Market Outlook & Valuations The better-than-expected U.S. new non-farm jobs of 222,000 in June coupled with the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting last month indicate that the U.S. central bank is on track to make another 25 basis points (bps) rate hike and reduce its monetary stimulus measures later this year.
6. 4 . Bond Market Commentary & Outlook U.S. Treasuries (UST) - For the week ended 7 July 2017, the U.S. Treasury (UST) market consolidated with yields moving higher following the better-than-expected jobs data and concerns over the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook. The 10-year UST yield rose by 9 bps to close at 2.39% over the week. Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) - The MGS benchmark yields ended the week higher, tracking the higher UST yields. The 10-year MGS yield inched up by 6 bps to close at 3.97% over the week. Local Corporate Bonds & Bond Funds’ Performance - Over the week, the bond funds generally registered positive performances on the back of resilient corporate bond prices. Foreign Exchange Weekly Changes of Selected Currencies versus the US$ Currency per Weekly % US$ change Dollar Index* 96.01 +0.4 Euro 0.88 +0.1 Ringgit 4.30 -0.1 Chinese Yuan 6.80 -0.3 Singapore Dollar 1.38 -0.3 Pound Sterling 0.78 -0.6 Indonesia Rupiah 13,411 -0.6 Australian Dollar 1.32 -1.2 Japanese Yen 113.70 -1.5 YTD % change -6.1 +8.2 +4.4 +2.1 +4.5 +4.8 +0.1 +5.1 +2.7 Source: Bloomberg *An index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. Bond Market Outlook - Trading in the bond market is expected to remain cautious after the UST market closed on a cautious note on the last day of 1H2017. - In the medium term, global bond investors will continue to assess the potential impact on the global bond market stemming from the U.S. administration’s pro-growth economic policies, the U.S. interest rate outlook and the Federal Reserve’s plan to normalise its balance sheet this year. The Fed raised the Federal funds rate target range by 25 bps to 1.00%1.25% at its June meeting. Market participants are expecting one more rate hike later this year. - On the Malaysian bond market, market participants will be closely monitoring the movement of global bond yields and the pace of further Federal funds rate hikes in 2H2017, which will be mainly influenced by the strength of the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, the presence of a strong domestic investor base is envisaged to provide support to the domestic bond market. Page 6 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Commentary
7. (in %) 7 Jul 17 30 Jun 17 % change* 3-Month Interest Rates 3.43 3.43 1.01 1.03 3-Year 1.59 1.46 3.40 3.39 4.26 4.24 4.51 4.49 5-Year 1.95 1.89 3.75 3.62 4.36 4.33 4.64 4.61 10-Year 2.39 2.30 3.97 3.91 4.71 4.68 4.96 4.93 KLIBOR U.S. T Bill U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp 'AA' Corp U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp. 'AA' Corp U.S. T Bond MGS 'AAA' Corp. 'AA' Corp MARKET BRIEF Change in Interest Rates & Bond Yields +2 +13 +1 +2 +2 +6 +13 +3 +3 +9 +6 +3 +3 *in basis points 10-Yr MGS yield & 12-Mth FD Rate % 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 10-yr MGS yield 12-month FD rate Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Page 7 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. May-17 Mar-17 Jan-17 Nov-16 Sep-16 Jul-16 May-16 Mar-16 Jan-16 Nov-15 Sep-15 Jul-15 May-15 Mar-15 Jan-15 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 Nov-13 Sep-13 Jul-13 May-13 Mar-13 Jan-13 2.0
8. Performance of Equity and Balanced Funds * Local Funds PSF PGF PIX PINDGF PAGF PRSF PBF P SmallCap PEF PFSF PDSF PSSF PSA30F POGF PBBF PBGF PBGSQF PSSCF PBMAC PBBSQF PSMACF PSMAGF PSTGF PBDBEF PSTEF PAVGEF PGRBF PBSCGF PRSSQF PEMOF PBMAGRF 7 Jul 17 30 Jun 17 0.5431 0.4867 0.6705 0.5263 0.6447 0.6125 0.6705 0.9516 0.2690 0.2840 0.2756 0.3029 0.2983 0.3182 0.7851 0.7920 0.2758 0.3435 0.2599 0.2628 0.2863 0.2756 0.2943 0.2757 0.2972 0.2917 0.2765 0.2728 0.2669 0.2773 0.2678 0.5447 0.4880 0.6724 0.5267 0.6454 0.6138 0.6703 0.9485 0.2707 0.2857 0.2766 0.3037 0.2995 0.3195 0.7858# 0.7935# 0.2765 0.3430 0.2603 0.2632 0.2864 0.2750 0.2953 0.2775 0.2979 0.2917 0.2763 0.2736 0.2677 0.2782 0.2682 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 +0.03 -0.1 +0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 +0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.03 -0.2 -0.1 -0.03 -0.03 +0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -0.2 +0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.1 -0.1 PFES PRSEC PGSF PFEDF PFEBF PTAF PCSF PFEPRF PSEASF PFECTF PCTF PFETIF PWEF PAUEF PFA30F PINDOSF PBAEF PBADF PBEPEF PBCPEF PBCAEF PBCAUEF PBSGA30EF PBAPENTF PBAREIF PBADBF PBINDOBF PSGEF PBAEGF PBDYNAF PBGEF PSTBLF POEF PBADSQF PNVGF P Ittikal PIEF PIOF PIMXAF PIDF PISSF PISTF PIOGF PISEF PIA40GF PISVF PITGF PITSEQ PBIEF PISGIF PESMACF PESMAGF PIENTEF PIAVGEF PIGRBF PIEMOF PBISCF 30 Jun 17 0.8406 0.3357 0.4457 0.2475 0.3644 0.2615 0.3465 0.2774 0.3808 0.2890 0.2963 0.3037 0.3015 0.2668 0.2407 0.2577 0.3129 0.2592 0.2880 0.2841 0.2902 0.2513 0.8443 0.3379 0.4465 0.2481 0.3664 0.2623 0.3467 0.2783 0.3829 0.2897 0.2973# 0.3045 0.3032 0.2674 0.2425 0.2575 0.3134 0.2611 0.2889 0.2839 0.2904 0.2511 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark -0.4 -0.7 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.2 -0.7 +0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.3 +0.1 -0.1 +0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 Public Mutual's Private Retirement Scheme Funds Performance PRS-GRF PRS-MDF PRS-CVF PRS-IGRF PRS-IMDF PRS-ICVF PRS-EQF PRS-SEQF PRS-ISEQF 7 Jul 17 30 Jun 17 0.2582 0.2623 0.2694 0.2882 0.2727 0.2637 0.2839 0.2951 0.2709 0.2588 0.2634 0.2694 0.2891 0.2735 0.2639 0.2844 0.2965 0.2729 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 +0.1 -0.6 -0.5 +0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.7 30 Jun 17 0.3196 0.2614 0.3217 0.3049 0.2812 0.3452 0.3098 0.3080 0.3022 0.2857 0.3203 0.3592 0.2335 0.2786 0.4101 0.3151 0.3019 0.3051 0.2866 0.3034 0.3841 0.2751 0.2970 0.3387 0.3350 0.2867 0.2945 0.3099 0.3125 1.2621 0.3231 0.2813 0.2882 0.2666 0.2565 0.3216 0.2635 0.3218 0.3081 0.2836 0.3464 0.3135 0.3119 0.3028 0.2897 0.3227 0.3620 0.2331 0.2807 0.4147 0.3154^ 0.3047# 0.3049 0.2890 0.3056 0.3854# 0.2770 0.2978# 0.3408 0.3376 0.2878 0.2956^ 0.3106 0.3131 1.2727 0.3233 0.2813 0.2902 0.2667 0.2572 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark -0.6 -1.0 -0.8 -0.9 -0.03 -0.1 -1.0 -1.4 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -1.2 -1.1 -1.3 -1.1 -0.2 -0.3 -1.4 -1.3 -0.7 -1.3 -0.8 -0.8 +0.2 +0.02 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -1.0 +0.1 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -1.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -1.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -1.0 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.8 -0.04 -0.2 -0.3 +0.1 Foreign Islamic Funds Local Islamic Funds 7 Jul 17 7 Jul 17 PAIF PIADF PIATAF PCIF PIALEF PBIAEF PBIASSF PIOEF 7 Jul 17 30 Jun 17 0.3528 0.3301 0.3548 0.2880 0.3574 0.2924 0.2730 0.2754 0.3566 0.3331 0.3574 0.2894 0.3604 0.2949# 0.2750 0.2771 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -1.3 -1.0 -0.9 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -0.8 Public Mutual's Bond Funds Performance P BOND PI BOND PIN BOND PEBF PSBF PIEBF PISBF PIINCOME PBFI PBIBF PBINFBF PIINFBF PSTBF PISTBF PSKF PBBOND PBSKF PENTBF PBASF 7 Jul 17 30 Jun 17 0.9649 0.9902 1.0027 1.0388 1.0096 1.1046 1.0539 1.0628 1.0370 1.1158 1.0589 1.0603 1.0598 1.0482 1.0650 1.0650 1.0713 1.0380 1.0518 0.9649 0.9913 1.0021# 1.0391 1.0091 1.1062 1.0537 1.0629 1.0368# 1.1164# 1.0595# 1.0609 1.0596 1.0513 1.0657 1.0645 1.0719 1.0381 1.0524 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark -0.1 +0.1 -0.03 +0.05 -0.1 +0.02 -0.01 +0.02 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 +0.02 -0.3 -0.1 +0.05 -0.1 -0.01 -0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Public Mutual's Money Market Funds Performance 7 Jul 17 PMMF 1.0077 PIMMF 1.0112 PeCDF 1.0008 PeICDF 1.0008 PBCMF 1.0011 PBCPF 1.0010 PBICMF 0.9990 PBICPF 1.0006 ^ *Buying price As at 22 Jun 17 # Adjusted for distribution 30 Jun 17 1.0071 1.0105# 1.0001# 1.0001# 1.0004# 1.0004# 0.9984# 1.0000# Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Page 8 of 13 FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Foreign Funds
9. 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 30 June 2017 Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAGF) (PDSF) (PEF) (PGF) (PIX) (PINDGF) (POGF) (PRSF) (PSF) (PSSF) (PSA30F) (PBGF) (PBGSQF) 1.4 0.6 3.0 3.2 0.7 3.7 1.8 0.6 2.1 3.8 -0.1 4.1 0.5 Moderate Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.5 6.0 6.1 6.0 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.8 6.4 7.9 6.8 7.6 (PIA40GF) (PIDF) (PIEF) (PIOGF) (PISSF) (PISEF) (P ITTIKAL) (PITSEQ) (PISVF) (PBIEF) 1.2 1.7 1.7 -0.2 -1.5 -0.3 1.7 1.4 2.6 2.4 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.5 5.8 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.3 5.7 6.3 6.3 6.8 (PFSF) (P SmallCap) (PSSCF) (PIOF) (PISTF) (PITGF) 3.2 7.8 3.3 7.1 6.0 0.1 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate High High 7.3 8.3 7.2 7.7 8.4 8.5 (PAUEF) (PCSF) (PCTF) (PFA30F) (PFECTF) (PFEDF) (PFEPRF) (PFES) (PFETIF) (PINDOSF) (PRSEC) (PSGEF) (PSEASF) (PBAEGF) (PBADF) (PBAEF) (PBAPENTF) (PBCAEF) (PBCAUEF) (PBCPEF) (PBSGA30EF) 3.6 19.9 13.7 17.9 4.4 13.1 7.4 14.7 8.8 10.2 10.8 8.1 8.2 9.3 8.5 14.1 10.0 17.1 13.8 20.9 7.3 Very High Very High Very High Very High High High High Very High High Very High High High High High Moderate High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High 12.5 13.9 14.6 11.3 10.1 10.5 8.6 11.9 8.8 14.2 10.4 10.9 8.3 10.3 7.5 9.7 11.3 12.1 13.4 14.3 11.2 Fund Name I. EQUITY FUNDS Non Regional Funds Public Aggressive Growth Fund Public Dividend Select Fund Public Equity Fund Public Growth Fund Public Index Fund Public Industry Growth Fund Public Optimal Growth Fund Public Regular Savings Fund Public Savings Fund Public Sector Select Fund Public Select Alpha-30 Fund PB Growth Fund PB Growth Sequel Fund Islamic Non Regional Funds Public Islamic Alpha-40 Growth Fund Public Islamic Dividend Fund Public Islamic Equity Fund Public Islamic Optimal Growth Fund Public Islamic Sector Select Fund Public Islamic Select Enterprises Fund Public Ittikal Fund Public Ittikal Sequel Fund Public Islamic Savings Fund PB Islamic Equity Fund Small & Mid Cap Funds Public Focus Select Fund Public SmallCap Fund Public Strategic SmallCap Fund Public Islamic Opportunities Fund Public Islamic Select Treasures Fund Public Islamic Treasures Growth Fund Regional Funds Public Australia Equity Fund Public China Select Fund Public China Titans Fund Public Far-East Alpha-30 Fund Public Far-East Consumer Themes Fund Public Far-East Dividend Fund Public Far-East Property & Resorts Fund Public Far-East Select Fund Public Far-East Telco & Infrastructure Fund Public Indonesia Select Fund Public Regional Sector Fund Public Singapore Equity Fund Public South-East Asia Select Fund PB Asia Emerging Growth Fund PB ASEAN Dividend Fund PB Asia Equity Fund PB Asia Pacific Enterprises Fund PB China ASEAN Equity Fund PB China Australia Equity Fund PB China Pacific Equity Fund PB Singapore Advantage-30 Equity Fund Page 9 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Return and Volatility Measures for Public Mutual’s Funds For the 3 Years Period Ended 30 June 2017
10. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAIF) (PCIF) (PIADF) (PIALEF) (PBIAEF) (PBIASSF) 10.9 11.3 9.1 10.7 10.6 10.0 High Very High High High High High 9.3 10.5 8.5 10.2 9.3 9.4 (PGSF) (PWEF) (PBEPEF) 12.0 -0.4 11.5 High High High 9.5 10.3 9.4 (PBF) (PFEBF) (PTAF) (PBAREIF) (PBADBF) (PBBF) (PBBSQF) (PBDYNAF) (PBINDOBF) (PBMAC) 3.3 7.9 14.3 6.2 3.6 3.9 1.7 8.3 9.3 3.3 Low Moderate High Low Moderate Low Low High Very High Low 4.4 7.7 9.0 5.8 8.1 4.3 4.3 9.3 10.9 3.4 (PIMXAF) (PIATAF) -0.4 9.9 Low High 5.6 9.0 (PBOND) (PEBF) (PENTBF) (PIN Bond) (PSBF) (PSTBF) (PBBOND) (PBFI) (PBINFBF) 4.4 4.3 4.4 3.9 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 Very Low Very Low Very Low n.a. Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Low 1.0 1.5 1.3 n.a. 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.8 (PI BOND) (PIEBF) (PI INCOME) (PIINFBF) (PISBF) (PISTBF) (PSKF) (PBASF) (PBIBF) (PBSKF) 4.9 4.4 3.8 4.8 4.1 4.1 4.6 5.0 4.9 4.7 Very Low Very Low Very Low Low Very Low Very Low Low Low Low Low 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.9 (PMMF) (PBCMF) (PBCPF) 3.3 3.3 3.4 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 (PIMMF) (PBICMF) (PBICPF) 3.2 3.1 3.2 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 Fund Name Islamic Regional Funds Public Asia Ittikal Fund Public China Ittikal Fund Public Islamic Asia Dividend Fund Public Islamic Asia Leaders Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Strategic Sector Fund Global Funds Public Global Select Fund Public Worldwide Equity Fund PB Euro Pacific Equity Fund II. BALANCED FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Balanced Fund Public Far-East Balanced Fund Public Tactical Allocation Fund PB Asia Real Estate Income Fund PB Australia Dynamic Balanced Fund PB Balanced Fund PB Balanced Sequel Fund PB Dynamic Allocation Fund PB Indonesia Balanced Fund PB Mixed Asset Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Mixed Asset Fund Public Islamic Asia Tactical Allocation Fund III. BOND FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Bond Fund Public Enhanced Bond Fund Public Enterprises Bond Fund Public Institutional Bond Fund Public Select Bond Fund Public Strategic Bond Fund PB Bond Fund PB Fixed Income Fund PB Infrastructure Bond Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Bond Fund Public Islamic Enhanced Bond Fund Public Islamic Income Fund Public Islamic Infrastructure Bond Fund Public Islamic Select Bond Fund Public Islamic Strategic Bond Fund Public Sukuk Fund PB Aiman Sukuk Fund PB Islamic Bond Fund PB Sukuk Fund IV. MONEY MARKET FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Money Market Fund PB Cash Management Fund PB Cash Plus Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Money Market Fund PB Islamic Cash Management Fund PB Islamic Cash Plus Fund Page 10 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 30 June 2017
11. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PRS-GRF) (PRS-MDF) (PRS-CVF) 0.8 1.5 3.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (PRS-IGRF) (PRS-IMDF) (PRS-ICVF) 4.6 2.6 3.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Fund Name V. PRS FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Growth Fund Public Mutual PRS Moderate Fund Public Mutual PRS Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Islamic Growth Fund Public Mutual PRS Islamic Moderate Fund Public Mutual PRS Islamic Conservative Fund * PB series of funds are highlighted to differentiate them from the Public series of funds # Based on the fund’s portfolio returns as at 31 May 2017 (Source: Lipper) Annualised Return = compounded annual rate of return of the fund over the specific period. The Volatility Factor (VF) means there is a possibility for the fund in generating an upside return or downside return around this VF. The Volatility Class (VC) is assigned by Lipper based on quintile ranks of VF for qualified funds. VF is subject to monthly revision and VC is revised every six months. The volatility banding for the “Very Low”, “Low”, “Moderate”, “High” and “Very High” VCs as at 31 December 2016 are 0.000 ≤ VF ≤ 1.785, 1.785 < VF ≤ 5.965, 5.965 < VF ≤ 8.015, 8.015 < VF ≤ 10.605 and VF more than 10.605 respectively. For this period to 30 June 2017 the VCs for the funds are based on the VFs of the respective funds as at 31 December 2016. The fund’s portfolio may have changed since this date and there is no guarantee that the fund will continue to have the same VF or VC in the future. Presently, only funds launched in the market for at least 36 months will display the VF and its VC. Page 11 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 30 June 2017
12. Glossary Definition Price Earnings Ratio The Price Earnings Ratio (PER) is the ratio of a company's current share price compared to its earnings per share. The PER of the market is derived from the aggregate market capitalisation divided by the total net profits of the listed companies in the relevant market. Dividend yield is the ratio of a company’s dividend per share to its stock price. The dividend yield of the market is computed as the total gross dividends of the market divided by the aggregate market capitalisation. A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. The inflation rate measures the change in the general level of prices for goods and services. Industrial Production Index (IPI) is an economic indicator which shows the production of output from industrial activities such as mining, manufacturing and utilities. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey-based index that indicates the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are expanding while a reading below 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are contracting. The consumer confidence index measures the level of consumers’ sentiment regarding the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. An improving trend in the consumer confidence index suggests that consumer spending may be rising. A fiscal deficit arises when a government's total expenditures exceed the revenue that it collects. The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) is an overnight interest rate set by Bank Negara Malaysia. It is the interest rate that a borrower bank has to pay to a lending bank for the funds borrowed. Increasing the OPR will result in higher interest rates for the economy. There are two main yield calculations. (1) Current yield is calculated by dividing a bond’s coupon by its market price or valuation. A bond’s yield moves inversely to its price. (2) Yield-to-maturity is the return attributable to investors if the bond is held to maturity. A government policy that aims to reduce the budget deficit over time. This is implemented through measures to increase taxes and/or reduce government spending. In general, the lower the budget deficit, the lower the potential supply of government bonds to be issued to finance the government’s budget deficit. Dividend yield GDP Inflation IPI PMI Consumer Confidence Index Fiscal deficit OPR Bond yields Fiscal consolidation Page 12 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
13. THE CONTENTS OF THIS REPORT ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY AND NO PART OF THIS REPORT IS TO BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO INVEST IN PUBLIC MUTUAL ’S FUNDS. This Weekly Wrap report summarises the movement of the equity and bond markets as well as the funds’ performance for the period under review and is intended for circulation to the unitholders of Public Mutual. The Market Brief is prepared based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but Public Mutual does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The Fund Performance Review summarises the fund’s weekly performance compared against its benchmark. The fund’s 3-year return together with its volatility class and factor (as at the end of the previous month) are shown to give readers a better perspective of the fund’s longer term performance and its risk. Readers should note that past performance of a fund is not an indication of its future performance. No part of this report may be shared, reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed or published in any manner without the written consent of Public Mutual. Public Mutual does not accept any liability, be it directly, indirectly or consequential losses or damages that may arise from any reliance based on this report. Page 13 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.