Malaysian Markets Weekly Wrap Week Ended 31 March

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP : Week ended 31 March 17  Lack of fresh leads caused the FBM KLCI to close 0.3% lower at 1,740 points for the week.  Regional markets generally eased on concerns that curbs on property investments in China would dampen China’s market.  Looking ahead, investors will remain focused on the pace of regional and global economic activities in 1H2017 as well as the outcome of the French elections in April/May. Performance of Key Indices (As at 31 March 17) Region Market FBM KLCI FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Shariah Index Local South East Asia North Asia Wall Street Europe Straits Times Index Jakarta Composite Index China ‘H’ Shares Shanghai Composite Index Dow Jones Nasdaq STOXX Europe 50 Index Index 1,740 12,811 % Weekly Change -0.3 +0.3 3,175 +1.0 5,568 10,274 3,223 20,663 5,912 3,161 +0.02 -1.9 -1.4 +0.3 +1.4 +1.1 1. Stock Market Commentary Market Comments Sideways trading amid lack of fresh leads: The FBM KLCI moved sideways in the Local absence of fresh leads and closed 0.3% lower at 1,740 points for the week. The FBM EMAS Shariah Index edged up by 0.3% to close at at 12,811 points for the week. Meanwhile, the FBM Small Cap Index rose by 0.8% over the same period. Regional Mixed trading on concerns over China’s tightening measures: Led by concerns over tighter liquidity and new regulations on property investments in China, North Asian markets eased over the week. The China ‘H’ shares and Shanghai markets fell by 1.9% and 1.4% respectively. Meanwhile, Japan’s TOPIX declined by 2.0% for the week amid profit-taking activities. South-East Asian markets were slightly firmer with the Singapore and Philippine markets registering weekly gains of 1.0% and 0.6% respectively. The Australian market closed 1.9% higher over the week amid expectations of higher corporate earnings for the year. Page 1 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Regional Markets Eased Amid Property Tightening Concerns in China
2. Comments Sentiment lifted by positive economic data , banking stocks: The release of a series of positive economic data in the U.S. and a rally in banking-related stocks helped to underpin the U.S. markets. The Dow firmed by 0.3% to close at 20,663 points while the technology-based Nasdaq closed 1.4% higher at 5,912 points for the week. Europe European markets, as proxied by the STOXX Europe 50 Index, rose by 1.1% for the week as a weaker Euro boosted the outlook for exporters. Selected Markets’ Weekly Performances 16,950 12,773 1,746 % Weekly change +0.8 +0.3 -0.3 % YTD change +16.1 +6.6 +6.0 3,175 7,312 1,575 5,568 3,143 7,270 1,574 5,567 +1.0 +0.6 +0.1 +0.02 +10.2 +6.9 +2.1 +5.1 2,160 545 9,812 24,112 6,782 3,223 10,274 1,513 2,169 549 9,903 24,358 6,867 3,269 10,478 1,544 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.9 -2.0 +6.6 +12.8 +6.0 +9.6 +13.2 +3.8 +9.4 -0.4 31 Mar’ 17 24 Mar’ 17 17,081 12,811 1,740 South-East Asia Singapore Philippines Thailand Indonesia North Asia South Korea MSCI FEXJ# Taiwan Hong Kong MSCI China SH Comp (China) China*, H Share TOPIX (Japan) FBM Small Cap Index FBM EMAS Shariah Index FBM KLCI Global Australia 5,865 5,754 Nasdaq 5,912 5,829 Europe** 3,161 3,127 Dow Jones 20,663 20,597 MSCI World# 449 448 FTSE 100 (U.K.) 7,323 7,337 * Hang Seng China Enterprises Index **STOXX Europe 50 Index +1.9 +1.4 +1.1 +0.3 +0.3 -0.2 # in USD +3.5 +9.8 +5.0 +4.6 +6.4 +2.5 2. Economic Commentary Market Commentary Malaysia - Effective 30 March 2017, the weekly retail fuel prices for RON95 and RON97 have been lowered by 17 sen and 19 sen to RM2.13/litre and RM2.41/litre respectively, while the price of diesel dropped by 9 sen to RM2.11/litre. - On a weekly basis, the Ringgit was unchanged at RM4.43 against the US$. On a year-to-date basis, the Ringgit strengthened by 1.4% against the greenback. Page 2 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Market Wall Street
3. Loans growth eased to 5 .3% in February from 5.6% in January due to slower demand for loans from the household and real estate sectors. - The final estimate of U.S. 4Q2016 GDP growth was revised up marginally to 2.0% compared to the previous estimate of 1.9% amid higher consumer spending. The fullyear GDP growth estimate was unchanged at 1.6% for 2016. - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate rose to a near 5year high of 2.1% in February from 1.9% in January due to higher energy prices. Meanwhile, the core PCE inflation rate was sustained at 1.8% over the same period. - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index climbed to 96.9 in March from 96.3 in February as consumers remained optimistic about their income and job prospects. U.K. - The U.K. government triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty on 29 March 2017, starting the formal two-year process of trade negotiations that will lead to Britain leaving the European Union (EU). China - China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) gained pace to a near 4-year high of 51.8 points in March from 51.6 points in February amid higher new orders and production levels. Meanwhile, the services PMI increased to a near 3-year high of 55.1 points from 54.2 points over the same period. Japan - The inflation rate eased to 0.2% in February from 0.5% in January amid moderating food prices and lower housing costs. South Korea - The final estimate of South Korea’s 4Q2016 GDP growth was revised slightly higher to 2.4% from the previous estimate of 2.3%, led by improved investment spending and export growth. For the full year, the 2016 GDP growth estimate was revised up to 2.8% from 2.7% previously. Commodity - On a weekly basis, Brent crude oil prices rose by 4.0% to close at US$52.83/brl on renewed hopes that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers would extend their recent output cuts. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices closed 6.9% higher at US$50.60/brl over the same period. - The CRB Commodity Price Index, which measures a broad range of commodities such as food, metals and raw materials, inched down by 0.2% to close at 430.99 points. U.S. Page 3 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF -
4. GDP Growth (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S. Eurozone Source: Bloomberg 2016 6.7 6.8 5.0 4.2 1.9 2.0 2.8 1.5 2.5 3.2 1.0 1.6 1.7 2017F 6.5 6.5 5.3 4.4 2.1 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.5 3.3 1.1 2.2 1.6 2018F 6.2 6.5 5.5 4.5 2.1 2.0 2.6 2.2 2.7 3.4 1.0 2.3 1.6 2017F 2.2 3.1 4.3 2.7 2.0 1.0 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.6 0.7 2.5 1.7 2018F 2.3 3.1 4.5 2.6 2.5 1.5 1.9 1.3 2.2 2.0 1.0 2.4 1.5 MARKET BRIEF Regional & Global GDP Statistics f=consensus forecast Regional & Global Inflation Statistics Inflation rate (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S. Eurozone 2016 2.0 1.8 3.5 2.1 2.4 -0.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.2 -0.1 1.3 0.2 Source: Bloomberg f=consensus forecast Regional & Global Markets’ Valuations Australia China ‘H’ Shares Hong Kong Shanghai Comp Thailand Singapore Taiwan Philippines Indonesia Japan South Korea U.S. (1) Europe Historic P/E(2) (x) 14.60 10.84 12.73 15.86 12.84 14.27 15.28 16.10 14.78 17.51 11.32 17.27(3) 13.93(3) Prospective P/E (x) 16.24 8.28 12.01 13.73 15.46 14.75 13.69 17.71 16.02 15.83 9.91 18.32 15.42 Estimated Dividend Yield (%) 4.34 3.57 3.47 1.98 2.97 3.48 3.99 1.72 2.08 2.00 1.74 2.06 4.00 Source: Bloomberg, 31 Mar’17 (1) S&P500 Index (2) 2007-2016 historical average (3) 1997-2016 historical average Page 4 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
5. In Europe , investors are expected to monitor the outcome of the first and second rounds of the French elections (to be held on 23 April and 7 May respectively), as the election result may lead to a referendum to exit the EU should the candidate for the National Front party win. On the local front, the sustained pace of loans growth of 5.5% in January-February 2017 compared to 5.3% in December 2016 suggests that growth in the domestic economy remains well-supported. Nonetheless, the rise of the inflation rate, which is projected to range between 3.0% and 4.0% in 2017 may dampen consumers’ purchasing power and weigh on consumer sentiment. As at 31 March 2017, the local market traded slightly above its historical average P/E ratio: - P/E valuation: prospective P/E ratio of 16.5x versus its 10-year historical average of 16.4x. - Dividend yield: 3.18% was above the 12-month F.D. rate of 3.11%*. The average P/E ratio of the regional markets, as proxied by the MSCI Far East ex-Japan Index, traded below its 10-year historical average: - Regional P/E valuations: 12.7x versus the 10-year historical average of 13.5x. * The average F.D. rate offered by four key domestic banks Bursa Securities’ Market Valuations FBM KLCI PER (x) Dividend Yield 3mth InterBk 12mth FD, % ^ 31 Mar’ 17 1,740 16.48 3.18% 3.43% 3.10% 2007-2016 historical average 24 Mar’ 17 1,746 16.58 3.17% 3.43% 3.10% Source: Bloomberg Bursa Securities' 10-Year P/E Ratio MSCI FE ex-Japan's 10-Year P/E Ratio 25 20 31 Mar' 2017 P/E: 16.5x 31 Mar' 2017 P/E: 12.7x P/E Ratio (x) 20 P/E Ratio (x) 10-yr av.^ 16.43 3.56% 3.27% - 15 10 15 10 Average: 16.4x 5 Average: 13.5x 5 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Page 5 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF 3. Market Outlook & Valuations With the ending of the first quarter of the year, investors are expected to await the release of corporate earnings results and GDP data for 1Q2017 for the key global and regional markets. Meanwhile, the pace of economic activities appears to be resilient in the first quarter of the year. Despite the slight pullback of selected markets in recent weeks, regional markets have generally registered positive returns for 1Q2017.
6. 4 . Bond Market Commentary & Outlook U.S. Treasuries (UST) - For the week ended 31 March 2017, U.S. Treasury (UST) yields ended lower on safe-haven demand following the beginning of the legal process for the U.K. to leave the EU under Article 50. The 10-year UST yield fell by 2 basis points (bps) from 2.41% to 2.39%. Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) - The MGS market eased in response to safe haven demand for U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year MGS yield rose by 3 bps to close at 4.13%. - Overall, resilient corporate bond prices continued to underpin the bond funds’ positive performances. Local Corporate Bonds & Bond Funds’ Performance Weekly Change of Selected Currencies versus the US$ Currency per Weekly % US$ change Dollar Index* 100.35 +0.7 Australian Dollar 1.31 +0.4 Singapore Dollar 1.40 +0.2 Ringgit 4.43 Chinese Yuan 6.89 Indonesia Rupiah 13,324 -0.1 Pound Sterling 0.80 -0.3 Japanese Yen 111.81 -0.7 Euro 0.94 -1.1 Foreign Exchange YTD % change -1.8 +5.7 +3.4 +1.4 +0.8 +0.7 +1.2 +4.5 +1.3 Source: Bloomberg *An index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies Bond Market Outlook - Looking ahead, global bond investors will continue to assess the potential impact of the U.S. administration’s economic policies on the global economy and financial markets, as well as the divergent outlook between the U.S. Federal funds rate and other developed countries’ interest rates. - On the domestic front, market participants are closely monitoring the potential impact of the U.S. administration’s economic policies and the pace of further U.S. interest rate hikes in 2017. Page 6 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Commentary
7. Change in Interest Rates & Bond Yields KLIBOR U.S. T Bill U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp 'AA' Corp U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp. 'AA' Corp U.S. T Bond MGS 'AAA' Corp. 'AA' Corp 31-Mar-17 24-Mar-17 3 Month Interest Rates 3.43 3.43 0.75 0.76 3 Year 1.49 1.53 3.53 3.44 4.25 4.26 4.56 4.56 5 Year 1.92 1.95 3.81 3.81 4.38 4.37 4.69 4.69 10 Year 2.39 2.41 4.13 4.10 4.72 4.71 4.98 4.98 % chng* -1 MARKET BRIEF (in %) -4 +9 -1 -3 +1 -2 +3 +1 - *in basis points Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Page 7 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
8. Performance of Equity and Balanced Funds * Local Funds PSF PGF PIX PINDGF PAGF PRSF PBF P SmallCap PEF PFSF PDSF PSSF PSA30F POGF PBBF PBGF PBGSQF PSSCF PBMAC PBBSQF PSMACF PSMAGF PSTGF PBDBEF PSTEF PAVGEF PGRBF PBSCGF PRSSQF PEMOF PBMAGRF 31 Mar’17 24 Mar’17 0.5275 0.4721 0.6546 0.5030 0.6418 0.6181 0.6748 0.9292 0.2615 0.2785 0.2729 0.2951 0.2869 0.3109 0.7985 0.7841 0.2690 0.3334 0.2532 0.2578 0.2846 0.2728 0.2842 0.2670 0.2833 0.2796 0.2666 0.2616 0.2602 0.2714 0.2600 0.5292 0.4718 0.6550 0.5031 0.6432 0.6193 0.6750 0.9251 0.2611 0.2777 0.2735 0.2953 0.2876 0.3112 0.7981 0.7862 0.2692 0.3333 0.2536 0.2578 0.2843 0.2717 0.2850 0.2667 0.2821 0.2785 0.2664 0.2618 0.2603 0.2706 0.2599 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark -0.3 -0.3 +0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.02 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.03 -0.2 +0.4 +0.8 +0.2 -0.3 +0.3 +0.7 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 +0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 +0.03 +0.8 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 +0.1 -0.1 +0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 +0.1 -0.1 +0.4 +0.6 +0.4 -0.3 +0.1 -0.2 -0.1 +0.7 -0.04 -0.1 +0.3 +0.6 +0.04 -0.2 PFES PRSEC PGSF PFEDF PFEBF PTAF PCSF PFEPRF PSEASF PFECTF PCTF PFETIF PWEF PAUEF PFA30F PINDOSF PBAEF PBADF PBEPEF PBCPEF PBCAEF PBCAUEF PBSGA30EF PBAPENTF PBAREIF PBADBF PBINDOBF PSGEF PBAEGF PBDYNAF PBGEF PSTBLF POEF PBADSQF PNVGF P Ittikal PIEF PIOF PIMXAF PIDF PISSF PISTF PIOGF PISEF PIA40GF PISVF PITGF PITSEQ PBIEF PISGIF PESMACF PESMAGF PIENTEF PIAVGEF PIGRBF PIEMOF 24 Mar’17 0.8766 0.3450 0.4211 0.2479 0.3711 0.2633 0.3488 0.2793 0.3836 0.2860 0.2958 0.2937 0.2992 0.2657 0.2436 0.2631 0.3068 0.2575 0.2742 0.2718 0.2736 0.8740 0.3435 0.4224 0.2476 0.3697 0.2629 0.3475 0.2787 0.3830 0.2862 0.2948 0.2930 0.2991 0.2650 0.2426 0.2625 0.3068 0.2580 0.2744 0.2704 0.2730 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.3 +0.4 -0.3 +0.1 +0.4 +0.2 +0.4 +0.2 +0.2 -0.1 +0.3 +0.2 +0.03 +0.3 +0.4 +0.2 -0.2 -0.1 +0.5 +0.2 +0.3 +0.3 +0.8 +0.2 +0.3 +0.3 +0.6 +0.3 +0.3 +0.1 +0.3 +0.5 +0.3 +0.3 +0.3 +0.1 +0.1 +0.03 +0.1 +0.1 +0.5 Public Mutual's Private Retirement Scheme Funds Performance PRS-GRF PRS-MDF PRS-CVF PRS-IGRF PRS-IMDF PRS-ICVF PRS-EQF PRS-SEQF PRS-ISEQF 31 Mar’17 24 Mar’17 0.2606 0.2675 0.2740 0.2877 0.2761 0.2706 0.2749 0.2835 0.2683 0.2611 0.2668 0.2738 0.2873 0.2763 0.2706 0.2744 0.2847 0.2689 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark -0.2 +0.3 +0.1 +0.1 -0.1 +0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.04 -0.02 +0.1 +0.2 +0.2 +0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.1 24 Mar’17 0.3244 0.2719 0.3373 0.2990 0.2762 0.3284 0.2948 0.3069 0.2938 0.2831 0.3308 0.3768 0.2303 0.2938 0.3884 0.3045 0.3028 0.3132 0.2782 0.2870 0.3837 0.2743 0.3139 0.3285 0.3345 0.2971 0.2918 0.3109 0.3100 1.2651 0.3197 0.2755 0.2738 0.2614 0.2502 0.3271 0.2731 0.3361 0.3004 0.2774 0.3310 0.2977 0.3078 0.2923 0.2836 0.3337 0.3806 0.2299 0.2884 0.3924 0.3063 0.3060 0.3118 0.2800 0.2901 0.3851 0.2731 0.3107 0.3289 0.3355 0.2933 0.2925 0.3078 0.3115 1.2705 0.3195 0.2757 0.2758 0.2599 0.2519 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 +0.4 +0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.8 -0.4 -1.0 -1.0 -0.3 -0.7 +0.5 +0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.9 -1.3 -1.0 -0.8 +0.2 -0.1 +1.9 +2.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.6 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 +0.4 +0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -1.1 -1.0 -0.4 -0.5 +0.4 +0.4 +1.0 +1.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 +1.3 +1.3 -0.2 -0.3 +1.0 +1.2 -0.5 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 +0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 +0.6 +0.3 -0.7 +0.1 Foreign Islamic Funds Local Islamic Funds 31 Mar’17 31 Mar’17 PAIF PIADF PIATAF PCIF PIALEF PBIAEF PBIASSF PIOEF 31 Mar’17 24 Mar’17 0.3422 0.3296 0.3433 0.2779 0.3481 0.2905 0.2636 0.2670 0.3443 0.3307 0.3453 0.2800 0.3504 0.2917 0.2654 0.2684 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark -0.6 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 Public Mutual's Bond Funds Performance P BOND PI BOND PIN BOND PEBF PSBF PIEBF PISBF PIINCOME PBFI PBIBF PBINFBF PIINFBF PSTBF PISTBF PSKF PBBOND PBSKF PENTBF PBASF 31 Mar’17 24 Mar’17 0.9540 0.9808 1.0097 1.0207 1.0360 1.0908 1.0415 1.0527 1.0650 1.1610 1.0916 1.0483 1.0470 1.0447 1.0522 1.0521 1.0584 1.0263 1.0386 0.9531 0.9806 1.0092 1.0203 1.0354 1.0891 1.0417 1.0523 1.0641 1.1608 1.0906 1.0475 1.0465 1.0439 1.0524 1.0515 1.0582 1.0255 1.0389 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.02 +0.05 +0.04 +0.1 +0.2 -0.02 +0.04 +0.1 +0.02 +0.1 +0.1 +0.05 +0.1 -0.02 +0.1 +0.02 +0.1 -0.03 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Public Mutual's Money Market Funds Performance PMMF PIMMF PeCDF PeICDF PBCMF PBCPF PBICMF PBICPF 31 Mar’17 24 Mar’17 0.9990 1.0424 1.0026 1.0024 1.0271 1.0030 1.0216 1.0026 0.9983 1.0418 1.0020 1.0018 1.0265 1.0024 1.0211 1.0020 *Buying price Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.05 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Page 8 of 13 FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Foreign Funds
9. 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 28 February 2017 Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAGF) (PDSF) (PEF) (PGF) (PIX) (PINDGF) (POGF) (PRSF) (PSF) (PSSF) (PSA30F) (PBGF) (PBGSQF) 0.3 -0.3 1.3 1.8 -0.1 1.8 1.1 -0.2 0.7 2.6 -1.3 2.7 -1.0 Moderate Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.2 5.8 5.7 5.7 6.9 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.5 6.2 7.7 6.5 7.0 (PIA40GF) (PIDF) (PIEF) (PIOGF) (PISSF) (PISEF) (P ITTIKAL) (PITSEQ) (PISVF) (PBIEF) 0.8 1.8 1.6 0.2 -0.9 -0.1 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.5 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.4 5.7 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.2 5.6 6.4 6.1 6.7 (PFSF) (P SmallCap) (PSSCF) (PIOF) (PISTF) (PITGF) 2.9 7.8 3.8 5.9 5.4 -0.7 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate High High 7.1 8.0 7.3 7.4 8.2 8.3 (PAUEF) (PCSF) (PCTF) (PFA30F) (PFECTF) (PFEDF) (PFEPRF) (PFES) (PFETIF) (PINDOSF) (PRSEC) (PSGEF) (PSEASF) (PBAEGF) (PBADF) (PBAEF) (PBAPENTF) (PBCAEF) (PBCAUEF) (PBCPEF) (PBSGA30EF) 6.3 18.8 12.9 16.0 2.2 13.9 8.3 13.7 9.2 8.9 10.0 9.1 7.1 7.8 7.5 12.7 9.8 15.8 14.1 18.4 8.2 Very High Very High Very High Very High High High High Very High High Very High High High High High Moderate High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High 12.3 13.9 14.5 11.4 9.7 10.4 8.5 11.8 8.7 14.8 10.3 10.9 8.4 10.0 7.6 9.7 11.2 12.0 13.3 14.4 11.3 Fund Name I. EQUITY FUNDS Non Regional Funds Public Aggressive Growth Fund Public Dividend Select Fund Public Equity Fund Public Growth Fund Public Index Fund Public Industry Growth Fund Public Optimal Growth Fund Public Regular Savings Fund Public Savings Fund Public Sector Select Fund Public Select Alpha-30 Fund PB Growth Fund PB Growth Sequel Fund Islamic Non Regional Funds Public Islamic Alpha-40 Growth Fund Public Islamic Dividend Fund Public Islamic Equity Fund Public Islamic Optimal Growth Fund Public Islamic Sector Select Fund Public Islamic Select Enterprises Fund Public Ittikal Fund Public Ittikal Sequel Fund Public Islamic Savings Fund PB Islamic Equity Fund Small & Mid Cap Funds Public Focus Select Fund Public SmallCap Fund Public Strategic SmallCap Fund Public Islamic Opportunities Fund Public Islamic Select Treasures Fund Public Islamic Treasures Growth Fund Regional Funds Public Australia Equity Fund Public China Select Fund Public China Titans Fund Public Far-East Alpha-30 Fund Public Far-East Consumer Themes Fund Public Far-East Dividend Fund Public Far-East Property & Resorts Fund Public Far-East Select Fund Public Far-East Telco & Infrastructure Fund Public Indonesia Select Fund Public Regional Sector Fund Public Singapore Equity Fund Public South-East Asia Select Fund PB Asia Emerging Growth Fund PB ASEAN Dividend Fund PB Asia Equity Fund PB Asia Pacific Enterprises Fund PB China ASEAN Equity Fund PB China Australia Equity Fund PB China Pacific Equity Fund PB Singapore Advantage-30 Equity Fund Page 9 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Return and Volatility Measures for Public Mutual’s Funds For the 3 Years Period Ended 28 February 2017
10. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAIF) (PCIF) (PIADF) (PIALEF) (PBIAEF) (PBIASSF) 9.9 11.3 7.9 9.9 9.7 9.0 High Very High High High High High 9.2 10.7 8.4 10.2 9.3 9.3 (PGSF) (PWEF) (PBEPEF) 11.7 -0.6 10.2 High High High 9.4 10.3 9.4 (PBF) (PFEBF) (PTAF) (PBAREIF) (PBADBF) (PBBF) (PBBSQF) (PBDYNAF) (PBINDOBF) (PBMAC) 2.8 6.5 12.4 7.4 5.5 3.1 1.0 6.5 8.8 2.3 Low Moderate High Low Moderate Low Low High Very High Low 4.3 7.7 9.0 5.8 7.9 4.1 4.1 9.2 11.3 3.1 (PIMXAF) (PIATAF) -0.2 9.6 Low High 5.5 8.9 (PBOND) (PEBF) (PENTBF) (PIN Bond) (PSBF) (PSTBF) (PBBOND) (PBFI) (PBINFBF) 4.3 3.9 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.6 Very Low Very Low Very Low n.a. Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Low 1.0 1.5 1.3 n.a. 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.8 (PI BOND) (PIEBF) (PI INCOME) (PIINFBF) (PISBF) (PISTBF) (PSKF) (PBASF) (PBIBF) (PBSKF) 4.9 4.3 3.8 4.7 3.9 4.2 4.6 4.9 4.8 4.7 Very Low Very Low Very Low Low Very Low Very Low Low Low Low Low 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.9 (PMMF) (PBCMF) (PBCPF) 3.3 3.3 3.3 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 (PIMMF) (PBICMF) (PBICPF) 3.2 3.1 3.2 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 Fund Name Islamic Regional Funds Public Asia Ittikal Fund Public China Ittikal Fund Public Islamic Asia Dividend Fund Public Islamic Asia Leaders Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Strategic Sector Fund Global Funds Public Global Select Fund Public Worldwide Equity Fund PB Euro Pacific Equity Fund II. BALANCED FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Balanced Fund Public Far-East Balanced Fund Public Tactical Allocation Fund PB Asia Real Estate Income Fund PB Australia Dynamic Balanced Fund PB Balanced Fund PB Balanced Sequel Fund PB Dynamic Allocation Fund PB Indonesia Balanced Fund PB Mixed Asset Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Mixed Asset Fund Public Islamic Asia Tactical Allocation Fund III. BOND FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Bond Fund Public Enhanced Bond Fund Public Enterprises Bond Fund Public Institutional Bond Fund Public Select Bond Fund Public Strategic Bond Fund PB Bond Fund PB Fixed Income Fund PB Infrastructure Bond Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Bond Fund Public Islamic Enhanced Bond Fund Public Islamic Income Fund Public Islamic Infrastructure Bond Fund Public Islamic Select Bond Fund Public Islamic Strategic Bond Fund Public Sukuk Fund PB Aiman Sukuk Fund PB Islamic Bond Fund PB Sukuk Fund IV. MONEY MARKET FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Money Market Fund PB Cash Management Fund PB Cash Plus Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Money Market Fund PB Islamic Cash Management Fund PB Islamic Cash Plus Fund Page 10 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 28 February 2017
11. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PRS-GRF) (PRS-MDF) (PRS-CVF) 0.7 1.1 3.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (PRS-IGRF) (PRS-IMDF) (PRS-ICVF) 3.9 2.2 3.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Fund Name V. PRS FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Growth Fund Public Mutual PRS Moderate Fund Public Mutual PRS Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Islamic Growth Fund Public Mutual PRS Islamic Moderate Fund Public Mutual PRS Islamic Conservative Fund * PB series of funds are highlighted to differentiate them from the Public series of funds # Based on the fund’s portfolio returns as at 31 January 2017 (Source: Lipper) Annualised Return = compounded annual rate of return of the fund over the specific period. The Volatility Factor (VF) means there is a possibility for the fund in generating an upside return or downside return around this VF. The Volatility Class (VC) is assigned by Lipper based on quintile ranks of VF for qualified funds. VF is subject to monthly revision and VC is revised every six months. The volatility banding for the “Very Low”, “Low”, “Moderate”, “High” and “Very High” VCs as at 31 December 2016 are 0.000 ≤ VF ≤ 1.785, 1.785 < VF ≤ 5.965, 5.965 < VF ≤ 8.015, 8.015 < VF ≤ 10.605 and VF more than 10.605 respectively. For this period to 30 June 2017 the VCs for the funds are based on the VFs of the respective funds as at 31 December 2016. The fund’s portfolio may have changed since this date and there is no guarantee that the fund will continue to have the same VF or VC in the future. Presently, only funds launched in the market for at least 36 months will display the VF and its VC. Page 11 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 28 February 2017
12. Glossary Definition Price Earnings Ratio The Price Earnings Ratio (PER) is the ratio of a company's current share price compared to its earnings per share. The PER of the market is derived from the aggregate market capitalisation divided by the total net profits of the listed companies in the relevant market. Dividend yield is the ratio of a company’s dividend per share to its stock price. The dividend yield of the market is computed as the total gross dividends of the market divided by the aggregate market capitalisation. A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. The inflation rate measures the change in the general level of prices for goods and services. Industrial Production Index (IPI) is an economic indicator which shows the production of output from industrial activities such as mining, manufacturing and utilities. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey-based index that indicates the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are expanding while a reading below 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are contracting. The consumer confidence index measures the level of consumers’ sentiment regarding the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. An improving trend in the consumer confidence index suggests that consumer spending may be rising. A fiscal deficit arises when a government's total expenditures exceed the revenue that it collects. The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) is an overnight interest rate set by Bank Negara Malaysia. It is the interest rate that a borrower bank has to pay to a lending bank for the funds borrowed. Increasing the OPR will result in higher interest rates for the economy. There are two main yield calculations. (1) Current yield is calculated by dividing a bond’s coupon by its market price or valuation. A bond’s yield moves inversely to its price. (2) Yield-to-maturity is the return attributable to investors if the bond is held to maturity. A government policy that aims to reduce the budget deficit over time. This is implemented through measures to increase taxes and/or reduce government spending. In general, the lower the budget deficit, the lower the potential supply of government bonds to be issued to finance the government’s budget deficit. Dividend yield GDP Inflation IPI PMI Consumer Confidence Index Fiscal deficit OPR Bond yields Fiscal consolidation Page 12 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
13. THE CONTENTS OF THIS REPORT ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY AND NO PART OF THIS REPORT IS TO BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO INVEST IN PUBLIC MUTUAL ’S FUNDS. This Weekly Wrap report summarises the movement of the equity and bond markets as well as the funds’ performance for the period under review and is intended for circulation to the unitholders of Public Mutual. The Market Brief is prepared based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but Public Mutual does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The Fund Performance Review summarises the fund’s weekly performance compared against its benchmark. The fund’s 3-year return together with its volatility class and factor (as at the end of the previous month) are shown to give readers a better perspective of the fund’s longer term performance and its risk. Readers should note that past performance of a fund is not an indication of its future performance. No part of this report may be shared, reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed or published in any manner without the written consent of Public Mutual. Public Mutual does not accept any liability, be it directly, indirectly or consequential losses or damages that may arise from any reliance based on this report. Page 13 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.