Malaysian Markets Weekly Wrap - Week Ended 21 July

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP : Week ended 21 July 2017  After trading in a tight range, the FBM KLCI closed 0.2% firmer at 1,759 points for the week.  Regional markets remained well-supported on the back of China’s resilient 2Q2017 GDP growth of 6.9%.  Looking ahead, investors are expected to continue monitoring the pace of global economic activities as well as the Federal Reserve’s meeting on 25-26 July 2017. Performance of Key Indices (As at 21 Jul 17) Region Market FBM KLCI FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Shariah Index Local South East Asia North Asia Wall Street Europe Index 1,759 12,720 % Weekly Change +0.2 +0.4 Straits Times Index 3,314 +0.8 Jakarta Composite Index 5,765 -1.1 10,787 3,238 21,580 6,388 3,118 +0.6 +0.5 -0.3 +1.2 -1.6 China ‘H’ Shares Shanghai Composite Index Dow Jones Nasdaq STOXX Europe 50 Index 1. Stock Market Commentary Market Comments Remained in tight trading range: The FBM KLCI continued to move in a tight trading Local range as sentiment was led by offshore markets and its regional peers. The FBM KLCI subsequently closed at 1,759 points to register a weekly gain of 0.2%. The FBM EMAS Shariah Index rose by 0.4% to close at 12,720 points for the week. Meanwhile, the FBM Small Cap Index closed 1.1% higher over the week. Regional Sentiment boosted by China’s sustained growth pace: Regional markets remained well-supported on the back of China’s resilient 2Q2017 GDP growth of 6.9%. Investors were also encouraged by the strengthening of regional currencies against the U.S. dollar. The South Korea, Hong Kong and China ‘H’ shares markets registered weekly gains of 1.5%, 1.2% and 0.6% respectively. South-East Asian markets were generally subdued except for the Philippine market which rose by 1.3% for the week. Down under, the Australian market registered a weekly loss of 0.7% amid softer commodity and energy prices. Page 1 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Regional Markets Remained Well-Supported
2. Comments Concerns over delays in policy reforms : The U.S. markets moved sideways as investors were concerned about possible delays in the administration’s new healthcare bill. The Dow edged down by 0.3% to close at 21,580 points while the Nasdaq rose by 1.2% to close at 6,388 points over the week. Europe European markets, as proxied by the STOXX Europe 50 Index, declined by 1.6% as the rebound of the Euro currency to a 2½-year high of US$1.16 per Euro dampened the competiveness of Eurozone exports. Selected Markets’ Weekly Performances 17,323 12,720 1,759 17,131 12,675 1,755 % Weekly change +1.1 +0.4 +0.2 South-East Asia Philippines Singapore Thailand Indonesia 7,990 3,314 1,574 5,765 7,886 3,287 1,578 5,832 +1.3 +0.8 -0.3 -1.1 +16.8 +15.0 +2.0 +8.8 North Asia MSCI China South Korea MSCI FEXJ# Hong Kong China*, H Share SH Comp (China) TOPIX (Japan) Taiwan 7,891 2,450 612 26,706 10,787 3,238 1,630 10,437 7,765 2,415 604 26,389 10,728 3,222 1,625 10,444 +1.6 +1.5 +1.3 +1.2 +0.6 +0.5 +0.3 -0.1 +31.7 +20.9 +26.5 +21.4 +14.8 +4.3 +7.3 +12.8 +1.2 +1.0 +0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -1.6 # in USD +18.7 +4.3 +13.0 +9.2 +1.0 +3.6 21 Jul 17 FBM Small Cap Index FBM EMAS Shariah Index FBM KLCI 14 Jul 17 Global Nasdaq 6,388 6,312 FTSE 100 (U.K.) 7,453 7,378 # MSCI World 477 474 Dow Jones 21,580 21,638 Australia 5,723 5,765 Europe** 3,118 3,168 * ** Hang Seng China Enterprises Index STOXX Europe 50 Index 2. % YTD change +17.7 +5.9 +7.2 Economic Commentary Market Commentary Malaysia - Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) international reserves inched up by 0.2% to US$99.1 billion as at 14 July from US$98.9 billion as at end-June due to portfolio investment inflows. - On a weekly basis, the Ringgit gained 0.2% to close at RM4.28 against the US$ in tandem with the firming of key currencies against the greenback. On a year-todate basis, the Ringgit strengthened by 4.7% against the greenback. Page 2 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Market Wall Street
3. The inflation rate eased to 3 .6% in June from 3.9% in May amid moderating transportation costs arising from lower fuel prices. Fig 1. Malaysia's Monthly CPI % % 28.0 6.0 3.9% 4.0 3.6% 18.0 8.0 2.0 -2.0 0.0 -12.0 Jun-16 Sep-16 CPI Inflation Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Transportation CPI - Housing starts rose to 1,215,000 units in June from 1,122,000 units in May on the back of higher starts of single and multi-family homes. - Initial jobless claims decreased to 233,000 for the week ended 15 July from 248,000 in the preceding week. China - China’s GDP growth was sustained at 6.9% in 2Q2017 compared to a similar growth rate in 1Q2017 due to resilient construction and manufacturing activities. Eurozone - At its monetary policy meeting on 20 July, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its key policy rate unchanged at 0.00%. It also affirmed that its quantitative easing program is intended to run “until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary”. - The Eurozone inflation rate edged down to 1.3% in June from 1.4% in May amid moderating energy prices. Japan - Japan’s export growth slowed to 9.7% in June from 14.9% in May due to lower exports of manufactured goods and electrical machinery. Meanwhile, import growth moderated to 15.5% from 17.8% over the same period. The trade balance registered a surplus of US$4.0 billion in June versus a deficit of US$1.8 billion in May. Commodity - On a weekly basis, Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell by 1.7% each to close at US$48.06/brl and US$45.77/brl respectively on concerns over rising supplies from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) members. - The CRB Commodity Price Index, which measures a broad range of commodities such as food, metals and raw materials, inched down by 0.4% to close at 442.35 points. U.S. Selected Weekly Commodity Prices Level % Weekly change Brent oil price US$48.06/brl -1.7% CRB Index 442.35 pts -0.4% % YTD change -15.4% +4.6% Page 3 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF -
4. Regional & Global GDP Statistics Source: Bloomberg 2017F 6.6 6.5 5.2 4.7 2.6 2.4 2.8 2.1 2.2 3.4 1.3 2.1 1.7 2016 6.7 6.9 5.0 4.2 2.0 2.0 2.8 1.5 2.5 3.2 1.0 1.6 1.7 f=consensus forecast * 2018F 6.3 6.5 5.4 4.6 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.2 2.7 3.5 1.0 2.1 1.6 MARKET BRIEF GDP Growth (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S.* Eurozone* IMF forecast Regional & Global Inflation Statistics Inflation rate (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S. Eurozone 2016 2.0 1.8 3.5 2.1 2.4 -0.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.2 -0.1 1.3 0.2 2017F 1.9 3.2 4.3 3.8 1.8 1.0 1.9 1.0 2.2 1.4 0.5 2.1 1.5 2018F 2.2 3.3 4.4 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.8 1.3 2.2 1.7 0.8 2.1 1.4 Source: Bloomberg f=consensus forecast Regional & Global Markets’ Valuations Australia China ‘H’ Shares Hong Kong Shanghai Comp Thailand Singapore Taiwan Philippines Indonesia Japan South Korea U.S.(1) Europe Historic P/E(2) (x) 14.60 10.84 12.73 15.86 12.84 14.27 15.28 16.10 14.78 17.51 11.32 17.27(3) 13.93(3) Prospective P/E (x) 15.87 8.51 12.83 14.27 15.50 15.03 14.88 19.33 16.52 14.31 10.41 18.98 15.58 Estimated Dividend Yield (%) 4.47 3.53 3.26 2.00 2.95 3.36 3.81 1.55 2.16 2.03 1.58 2.00 3.91 Source: Bloomberg, 21 Jul 17 (1) S&P500 Index (2) 2007-2016 historical average (3) 1997-2016 historical average Page 4 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
5. Looking ahead , investors are expected to continue monitoring the pace of global economic activities as well as the Federal Reserve’s meeting which will be held on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. On the domestic front, the continued easing of Malaysia’s inflation rate for the third consecutive month in June indicates that cost-push inflationary pressures arising from fuel prices are abating. Thus, Malaysia’s inflation rate is expected to ease from 4.1% in 1H2017 to 2.8% in 2H2017 as crude oil prices are projected to hover between US$45-50/brl for the rest of the year. As at 21 July 2017, the local market traded below its historical average P/E ratio: - P/E valuation: prospective P/E ratio of 16.2x versus its 10-year historical average of 16.4x. - Dividend yield: 3.22% was above the 12-month FD rate of 3.11%*. The average P/E ratio of the regional markets, as proxied by the MSCI Far East ex-Japan Index, was above its 10-year historical average: - The average FD rate offered by four key domestic banks Bursa Securities’ Market Valuations FBM KLCI PER (x) Dividend Yield 3mth InterBk 12mth FD ^ 21 Jul 17 1,759 16.22 3.22% 3.43% 3.10% 2007-2016 historical average 14 Jul 17 1,755 16.19 3.23% 3.43% 3.10% 10-yr av.^ 16.43 3.56% 3.27% - Source: Bloomberg Bursa Securities' 10-Year P/E Ratio MSCI FE ex-Japan's 10-Year P/E Ratio 25 20 21 Jul 17 P/E: 16.2x 21 Jul 17 P/E: 13.7x P/E Ratio (x) 20 P/E Ratio (x) * Regional P/E valuations: 13.7x versus the 10-year historical average of 13.5x. 15 10 15 10 Average: 16.4x 5 Average: 13.5x 5 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Page 5 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF 3. Market Outlook & Valuations Last week, investors were focused on the ECB’s monetary policy outlook. While the quantitative easing program can be extended beyond 2017, the monthly amount of bond purchases may be reduced as the economy gradually recovers next year. Nonetheless, the softening of the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis regional currencies is expected to underpin sentiment for Far East markets.
6. 4 . Bond Market Commentary & Outlook U.S. Treasuries (UST) - For the week ended 21 July 2017, the U.S. Treasury (UST) market closed on a firm note following the failure of Senate Republicans in repealing the Affordable Care Act. The 10-year UST yield fell by 9 basis points (bps) to close at 2.24% over the week. Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) - The MGS benchmark yields ended the week lower on the back of the firmer Ringgit. The 10-year MGS yield eased by 6 bps to close at 3.91% for the week. Local Corporate Bonds & Bond Funds’ Performance - Over the week, resilient corporate bond prices continued to underpin the bond funds’ positive performances. Foreign Exchange Weekly Changes of Selected Currencies versus the US$ Australian Dollar Euro Japanese Yen Singapore Dollar Pound Sterling Ringgit Chinese Yuan Indonesia Rupiah Dollar Index* Currency per US$ 1.26 0.86 111.47 1.36 0.77 4.28 6.77 13,317 93.86 Weekly % change +2.0 +2.0 +1.6 +0.8 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.1 -1.4 YTD % change +9.5 +10.4 +4.8 +5.9 +5.7 +4.7 +2.6 +0.8 -8.2 Source: Bloomberg *An index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. Bond Market Outlook - In the medium term, global bond investors will continue to assess the potential impact on the global bond market from the U.S. administration’s pro-growth economic policies, the U.S. interest rate outlook, the Fed’s balance sheet normalisation and the ECB’s monetary policy outlook. - On the Malaysian bond market, market participants will be closely monitoring the movement of global bond yields and the pace of further Federal funds rate hikes in 2H2017. Page 6 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Commentary
7. Change in Interest Rates & Bond Yields 21 Jul 17 % change* 14 Jul 17 3-Month Interest Rates 3.43 3.43 1.16 1.03 3-Year 1.49 1.55 3.33 3.38 4.26 4.28 4.51 4.53 5-Year 1.80 1.87 3.66 3.75 4.35 4.37 4.64 4.66 10-Year 2.24 2.33 3.91 3.97 4.69 4.70 4.94 4.95 KLIBOR U.S. T Bill U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp 'AA' Corp U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp. 'AA' Corp U.S. T Bond MGS 'AAA' Corp. 'AA' Corp MARKET BRIEF (in %) +13 -6 -5 -2 -2 -7 -9 -2 -2 -9 -6 -1 -1 * in basis points 10-Yr MGS yield & 12-Mth FD Rate % 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 10-yr MGS yield 12-month FD rate Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Page 7 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. May-17 Mar-17 Jan-17 Nov-16 Sep-16 Jul-16 May-16 Mar-16 Jan-16 Nov-15 Sep-15 Jul-15 May-15 Mar-15 Jan-15 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 Nov-13 Sep-13 Jul-13 May-13 Mar-13 Jan-13 2.0
8. Performance of Equity and Balanced Funds * Local Funds PSF PGF PIX PINDGF PAGF PRSF PBF P SmallCap PEF PFSF PDSF PSSF PSA30F POGF PBBF PBGF PBGSQF PSSCF PBMAC PBBSQF PSMACF PSMAGF PSTGF PBDBEF PSTEF PAVGEF PGRBF PBSCGF PRSSQF PEMOF PBMAGRF 21 Jul 17 14 Jul 17 0.5445 0.4877 0.6670 0.5309 0.6473 0.6129 0.6708 0.9504 0.2689 0.2828 0.2763 0.3040 0.2977 0.3168 0.7872 0.8017 0.2766 0.3434 0.2600 0.2629 0.2876 0.2759 0.2976 0.2752 0.3003 0.2944 0.2795 0.2743 0.2660 0.2766 0.2697 0.5429 0.4855 0.6663 0.5281 0.6449 0.6106 0.6693 0.9403 0.2684 0.2825 0.2756 0.3024 0.2981 0.3161 0.7844 0.7961 0.2752 0.3417 0.2600 0.2622 0.2866 0.2753 0.2971 0.2751 0.2980 0.2920 0.2779 0.2731 0.2658 0.2757 0.2681 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.3 +0.2 +0.5 +0.2 +0.1 +0.3 +0.5 +0.2 +0.4 +0.2 +0.4 +0.3 +0.2 +0.2 +1.1 +1.1 +0.2 +0.2 +0.1 +0.5 +0.3 +0.3 +0.5 +0.3 -0.1 +0.2 +0.2 +0.3 +0.4 +0.2 +0.7 +0.2 +0.5 +0.2 +0.5 +1.1 +0.1 +0.3 +0.2 +0.3 +0.1 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.04 +0.3 +0.8 +0.6 +0.8 +0.2 +0.6 +0.2 +0.4 +1.0 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 +0.7 +0.6 +0.2 PFES PRSEC PGSF PFEDF PFEBF PTAF PCSF PFEPRF PSEASF PFECTF PCTF PFETIF PWEF PAUEF PFA30F PINDOSF PBAEF PBADF PBEPEF PBCPEF PBCAEF PBCAUEF PBSGA30EF PBAPENTF PBAREIF PBADBF PBINDOBF PSGEF PBAEGF PBDYNAF PBGEF PSTBLF POEF PBADSQF PNVGF P Ittikal PIEF PIOF PIMXAF PIDF PISSF PISTF PIOGF PISEF PIA40GF PISVF PITGF PITSEQ PBIEF PISGIF PESMACF PESMAGF PIENTEF PIAVGEF PIGRBF PIEMOF PBISCF 14 Jul 17 0.8448 0.3367 0.4497 0.2482 0.3650 0.2606 0.3457 0.2756 0.3800 0.2917 0.2975 0.3047 0.3023 0.2669 0.2406 0.2599 0.3146 0.2602 0.2900 0.2867 0.2920 0.2520 0.8403 0.3356 0.4457 0.2470 0.3641 0.2600 0.3450 0.2753 0.3792 0.2904 0.2968 0.3033 0.3012 0.2664 0.2398 0.2587 0.3130 0.2596 0.2885 0.2851 0.2897 0.2513 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.5 +0.3 +0.9 +0.5 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.1 +0.2 +0.4 +0.2 +0.5 +0.4 +0.2 +0.3 +0.5 +0.5 +0.2 +0.5 +0.6 +0.8 +0.3 +0.4 +0.4 +0.9 +0.3 +0.3 +0.4 +0.9 +0.4 +0.4 +0.5 +0.3 +0.8 +0.4 +0.4 +0.4 +0.1 +0.2 +0.4 +0.3 +0.2 +0.8 +0.9 Public Mutual's Private Retirement Scheme Funds Performance PRS-GRF PRS-MDF PRS-CVF PRS-IGRF PRS-IMDF PRS-ICVF PRS-EQF PRS-SEQF PRS-ISEQF 21 Jul 17 14 Jul 17 0.2623 0.2669 0.2703 0.2930 0.2772 0.2638 0.2880 0.3036 0.2785 0.2614 0.2656 0.2698 0.2909 0.2753 0.2637 0.2855 0.3018 0.2758 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.3 +0.5 +0.2 +0.7 +0.7 +0.04 +0.9 +0.6 +1.0 +0.5 +0.4 +0.1 +0.6 +0.5 +0.1 +0.2 +0.6 +0.7 14 Jul 17 0.3369 0.2718 0.3286 0.3143 0.2917 0.3640 0.3229 0.3163 0.3049 0.2906 0.3370 0.3730 0.2361 0.2892 0.4333 0.3105 0.3164 0.3081 0.2968 0.3218 0.4011 0.2902 0.3069 0.3516 0.3403 0.2937 0.2917 0.3202 0.3287 1.3331 0.3286 0.2879 0.2990 0.2693 0.2684 0.3320 0.2694 0.3274 0.3131 0.2886 0.3581 0.3192 0.3136 0.3047 0.2902 0.3344 0.3663 0.2366 0.2884 0.4281 0.3158 0.3112 0.3072 0.2939 0.3166 0.3964 0.2870 0.3022 0.3482 0.3385 0.2931 0.2955 0.3154 0.3186 1.3110 0.3283 0.2867 0.2954 0.2687 0.2650 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +1.5 +1.1 +0.9 +1.0 +0.4 +0.4 +0.4 +0.2 +1.1 +0.7 +1.6 +0.8 +1.2 +0.8 +0.9 +1.4 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 -0.4 +0.8 +0.3 +1.8 +1.0 -0.2 -0.2 +0.3 +0.4 +1.2 +1.0 -1.7 -1.6 +1.7 +1.0 +0.3 +0.1 +1.0 +0.7 +1.6 +1.2 +1.2 +0.8 +1.1 +0.9 +1.6 +1.5 +1.0 +0.8 +0.5 +0.9 +0.2 +0.3 -1.3 -0.9 +1.5 +1.5 +3.2 +0.7 +1.7 +0.8 +0.1 -0.05 +0.4 +0.2 +1.2 +0.7 +0.2 +0.1 +1.3 +0.1 Foreign Islamic Funds Local Islamic Funds 21 Jul 17 21 Jul 17 PAIF PIADF PIATAF PCIF PIALEF PBIAEF PBIASSF PIOEF 21 Jul 17 14 Jul 17 0.3683 0.3441 0.3693 0.2985 0.3739 0.3059 0.2851 0.2855 0.3621 0.3388 0.3632 0.2945 0.3669 0.3001 0.2793 0.2805 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +1.7 +1.6 +1.7 +1.4 +1.9 +1.9 +2.1 +1.8 +1.4 +1.1 +1.0 +1.1 +1.3 +1.2 +1.3 +0.8 Public Mutual's Bond Funds Performance P BOND PI BOND PIN BOND PEBF PSBF PIEBF PISBF PIINCOME PBFI PBIBF PBINFBF PIINFBF PSTBF PISTBF PSKF PBBOND PBSKF PENTBF PBASF 21 Jul 17 14 Jul 17 0.9667 0.9917 1.0042 1.0392 1.0110 1.1060 1.0552 1.0646 1.0389 1.1171 1.0608 1.0621 1.0614 1.0496 1.0668 1.0666 1.0727 1.0404 1.0535 0.9655 0.9909 1.0033 1.0374 1.0100 1.1053 1.0543 1.0637 1.0376 1.1164 1.0599 1.0612 1.0603 1.0489 1.0657 1.0656 1.0720 1.0386 1.0524 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Public Mutual's Money Market Funds Performance PMMF PIMMF PeCDF PeICDF PBCMF PBCPF PBICMF PBICPF *Buying price 21 Jul 17 14 Jul 17 1.0090 1.0124 1.0021 1.0021 1.0023 1.0023 1.0003 1.0017 1.0083 1.0118 1.0014 1.0014 1.0017 1.0016 0.9996 1.0011 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Page 8 of 13 FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Foreign Funds
9. 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 30 June 2017 Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAGF) (PDSF) (PEF) (PGF) (PIX) (PINDGF) (POGF) (PRSF) (PSF) (PSSF) (PSA30F) (PBGF) (PBGSQF) 1.4 0.6 3.0 3.2 0.7 3.7 1.8 0.6 2.1 3.8 -0.1 4.1 0.5 Moderate Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.5 6.0 6.1 6.0 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.8 6.4 7.9 6.8 7.6 (PIA40GF) (PIDF) (PIEF) (PIOGF) (PISSF) (PISEF) (P ITTIKAL) (PITSEQ) (PISVF) (PBIEF) 1.2 1.7 1.7 -0.2 -1.5 -0.3 1.7 1.4 2.6 2.4 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.5 5.8 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.3 5.7 6.3 6.3 6.8 (PFSF) (P SmallCap) (PSSCF) (PIOF) (PISTF) (PITGF) 3.2 7.8 3.3 7.1 6.0 0.1 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate High High 7.3 8.3 7.2 7.7 8.4 8.5 (PAUEF) (PCSF) (PCTF) (PFA30F) (PFECTF) (PFEDF) (PFEPRF) (PFES) (PFETIF) (PINDOSF) (PRSEC) (PSGEF) (PSEASF) (PBAEGF) (PBADF) (PBAEF) (PBAPENTF) (PBCAEF) (PBCAUEF) (PBCPEF) (PBSGA30EF) 3.6 19.9 13.7 17.9 4.4 13.1 7.4 14.7 8.8 10.2 10.8 8.1 8.2 9.3 8.5 14.1 10.0 17.1 13.8 20.9 7.3 Very High Very High Very High Very High High High High Very High High Very High High High High High Moderate High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High 12.5 13.9 14.6 11.3 10.1 10.5 8.6 11.9 8.8 14.2 10.4 10.9 8.3 10.3 7.5 9.7 11.3 12.1 13.4 14.3 11.2 Fund Name I. EQUITY FUNDS Non Regional Funds Public Aggressive Growth Fund Public Dividend Select Fund Public Equity Fund Public Growth Fund Public Index Fund Public Industry Growth Fund Public Optimal Growth Fund Public Regular Savings Fund Public Savings Fund Public Sector Select Fund Public Select Alpha-30 Fund PB Growth Fund PB Growth Sequel Fund Islamic Non Regional Funds Public Islamic Alpha-40 Growth Fund Public Islamic Dividend Fund Public Islamic Equity Fund Public Islamic Optimal Growth Fund Public Islamic Sector Select Fund Public Islamic Select Enterprises Fund Public Ittikal Fund Public Ittikal Sequel Fund Public Islamic Savings Fund PB Islamic Equity Fund Small & Mid Cap Funds Public Focus Select Fund Public SmallCap Fund Public Strategic SmallCap Fund Public Islamic Opportunities Fund Public Islamic Select Treasures Fund Public Islamic Treasures Growth Fund Regional Funds Public Australia Equity Fund Public China Select Fund Public China Titans Fund Public Far-East Alpha-30 Fund Public Far-East Consumer Themes Fund Public Far-East Dividend Fund Public Far-East Property & Resorts Fund Public Far-East Select Fund Public Far-East Telco & Infrastructure Fund Public Indonesia Select Fund Public Regional Sector Fund Public Singapore Equity Fund Public South-East Asia Select Fund PB Asia Emerging Growth Fund PB ASEAN Dividend Fund PB Asia Equity Fund PB Asia Pacific Enterprises Fund PB China ASEAN Equity Fund PB China Australia Equity Fund PB China Pacific Equity Fund PB Singapore Advantage-30 Equity Fund Page 9 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Return and Volatility Measures for Public Mutual’s Funds For the 3 Years Period Ended 30 June 2017
10. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAIF) (PCIF) (PIADF) (PIALEF) (PBIAEF) (PBIASSF) 10.9 11.3 9.1 10.7 10.6 10.0 High Very High High High High High 9.3 10.5 8.5 10.2 9.3 9.4 (PGSF) (PWEF) (PBEPEF) 12.0 -0.4 11.5 High High High 9.5 10.3 9.4 (PBF) (PFEBF) (PTAF) (PBAREIF) (PBADBF) (PBBF) (PBBSQF) (PBDYNAF) (PBINDOBF) (PBMAC) 3.3 7.9 14.3 6.2 3.6 3.9 1.7 8.3 9.3 3.3 Low Moderate High Low Moderate Low Low High Very High Low 4.4 7.7 9.0 5.8 8.1 4.3 4.3 9.3 10.9 3.4 (PIMXAF) (PIATAF) -0.4 9.9 Low High 5.6 9.0 (PBOND) (PEBF) (PENTBF) (PIN Bond) (PSBF) (PSTBF) (PBBOND) (PBFI) (PBINFBF) 4.4 4.3 4.4 3.9 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 Very Low Very Low Very Low n.a. Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Low 1.0 1.5 1.3 n.a. 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.8 (PI BOND) (PIEBF) (PI INCOME) (PIINFBF) (PISBF) (PISTBF) (PSKF) (PBASF) (PBIBF) (PBSKF) 4.9 4.4 3.8 4.8 4.1 4.1 4.6 5.0 4.9 4.7 Very Low Very Low Very Low Low Very Low Very Low Low Low Low Low 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.9 (PMMF) (PBCMF) (PBCPF) 3.3 3.3 3.4 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 (PIMMF) (PBICMF) (PBICPF) 3.2 3.1 3.2 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 Fund Name Islamic Regional Funds Public Asia Ittikal Fund Public China Ittikal Fund Public Islamic Asia Dividend Fund Public Islamic Asia Leaders Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Strategic Sector Fund Global Funds Public Global Select Fund Public Worldwide Equity Fund PB Euro Pacific Equity Fund II. BALANCED FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Balanced Fund Public Far-East Balanced Fund Public Tactical Allocation Fund PB Asia Real Estate Income Fund PB Australia Dynamic Balanced Fund PB Balanced Fund PB Balanced Sequel Fund PB Dynamic Allocation Fund PB Indonesia Balanced Fund PB Mixed Asset Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Mixed Asset Fund Public Islamic Asia Tactical Allocation Fund III. BOND FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Bond Fund Public Enhanced Bond Fund Public Enterprises Bond Fund Public Institutional Bond Fund Public Select Bond Fund Public Strategic Bond Fund PB Bond Fund PB Fixed Income Fund PB Infrastructure Bond Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Bond Fund Public Islamic Enhanced Bond Fund Public Islamic Income Fund Public Islamic Infrastructure Bond Fund Public Islamic Select Bond Fund Public Islamic Strategic Bond Fund Public Sukuk Fund PB Aiman Sukuk Fund PB Islamic Bond Fund PB Sukuk Fund IV. MONEY MARKET FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Money Market Fund PB Cash Management Fund PB Cash Plus Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Money Market Fund PB Islamic Cash Management Fund PB Islamic Cash Plus Fund Page 10 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 30 June 2017
11. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PRS-GRF) (PRS-MDF) (PRS-CVF) 0.8 1.5 3.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (PRS-IGRF) (PRS-IMDF) (PRS-ICVF) 4.6 2.6 3.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Fund Name V. PRS FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Growth Fund Public Mutual PRS Moderate Fund Public Mutual PRS Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Islamic Growth Fund Public Mutual PRS Islamic Moderate Fund Public Mutual PRS Islamic Conservative Fund * PB series of funds are highlighted to differentiate them from the Public series of funds # Based on the fund’s portfolio returns as at 31 May 2017 (Source: Lipper) Annualised Return = compounded annual rate of return of the fund over the specific period. The Volatility Factor (VF) means there is a possibility for the fund in generating an upside return or downside return around this VF. The Volatility Class (VC) is assigned by Lipper based on quintile ranks of VF for qualified funds. VF is subject to monthly revision and VC is revised every six months. The volatility banding for the “Very Low”, “Low”, “Moderate”, “High” and “Very High” VCs as at 31 December 2016 are 0.000 ≤ VF ≤ 1.785, 1.785 < VF ≤ 5.965, 5.965 < VF ≤ 8.015, 8.015 < VF ≤ 10.605 and VF more than 10.605 respectively. For this period to 30 June 2017 the VCs for the funds are based on the VFs of the respective funds as at 31 December 2016. The fund’s portfolio may have changed since this date and there is no guarantee that the fund will continue to have the same VF or VC in the future. Presently, only funds launched in the market for at least 36 months will display the VF and its VC. Page 11 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 30 June 2017
12. Glossary Definition Price Earnings Ratio The Price Earnings Ratio (PER) is the ratio of a company's current share price compared to its earnings per share. The PER of the market is derived from the aggregate market capitalisation divided by the total net profits of the listed companies in the relevant market. Dividend yield is the ratio of a company’s dividend per share to its stock price. The dividend yield of the market is computed as the total gross dividends of the market divided by the aggregate market capitalisation. A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. The inflation rate measures the change in the general level of prices for goods and services. Industrial Production Index (IPI) is an economic indicator which shows the production of output from industrial activities such as mining, manufacturing and utilities. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey-based index that indicates the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are expanding while a reading below 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are contracting. The consumer confidence index measures the level of consumers’ sentiment regarding the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. An improving trend in the consumer confidence index suggests that consumer spending may be rising. A fiscal deficit arises when a government's total expenditures exceed the revenue that it collects. The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) is an overnight interest rate set by Bank Negara Malaysia. It is the interest rate that a borrower bank has to pay to a lending bank for the funds borrowed. Increasing the OPR will result in higher interest rates for the economy. There are two main yield calculations. (1) Current yield is calculated by dividing a bond’s coupon by its market price or valuation. A bond’s yield moves inversely to its price. (2) Yield-to-maturity is the return attributable to investors if the bond is held to maturity. A government policy that aims to reduce the budget deficit over time. This is implemented through measures to increase taxes and/or reduce government spending. In general, the lower the budget deficit, the lower the potential supply of government bonds to be issued to finance the government’s budget deficit. Dividend yield GDP Inflation IPI PMI Consumer Confidence Index Fiscal deficit OPR Bond yields Fiscal consolidation Page 12 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
13. THE CONTENTS OF THIS REPORT ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY AND NO PART OF THIS REPORT IS TO BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO INVEST IN PUBLIC MUTUAL ’S FUNDS. This Weekly Wrap report summarises the movement of the equity and bond markets as well as the funds’ performance for the period under review and is intended for circulation to the unitholders of Public Mutual. The Market Brief is prepared based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but Public Mutual does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The Fund Performance Review summarises the fund’s weekly performance compared against its benchmark. The fund’s 3-year return together with its volatility class and factor (as at the end of the previous month) are shown to give readers a better perspective of the fund’s longer term performance and its risk. Readers should note that past performance of a fund is not an indication of its future performance. No part of this report may be shared, reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed or published in any manner without the written consent of Public Mutual. Public Mutual does not accept any liability, be it directly, indirectly or consequential losses or damages that may arise from any reliance based on this report. Page 13 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.