Malaysian Markets Weekly Wrap - Week Ended 13 October

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP : Week ended 13 October 2017  After moving sideways amid a lack of fresh leads, the FBM KLCI closed at 1,755 points for a weekly loss of 0.5%.  Key Events Ahead: Malaysia’s 2018 Budget on 27 Oct 2017 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 31 Oct - 1 Nov 2017 Bank of Japan’s meeting on 30-31 Oct 2017 1. Stock Market Commentary Market Comments Regional Regional markets rose as sentiment was lifted by the appreciation of regional currencies against the U.S. dollar. The greenback weakened against major currencies amid reduced concerns over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cycle. The improved outlook for electronic exports helped the South Korean and Taiwanese markets to register weekly gains of 3.3% and 1.8% respectively. Wall Street The Dow continued to hit record highs on investor expectations of stronger corporate earnings for 3Q2017. The Dow firmed by 0.4% to close at 22,872 points while the Nasdaq closed 0.2% higher at 6,606 points for the week. Europe The STOXX Europe 50 Index edged up by 0.3% over the week, in line with sustained sentiment for global equities. Selected Markets’ Weekly Performances 17,125 12,855 1,764 % Weekly change +0.6 +0.2 -0.5 % YTD change +17.1 +7.2 +6.9 1,696 3,291 5,905 +1.0 +0.8 +0.3 +11.0 +15.2 +11.8 2,474 10,724 651 1,709 11,520 28,476 2,394^^ 10,533 639 1,687 11,459 28,458 +3.3 +1.8 +1.8 +1.3 +0.5 +0.1 +22.1 +15.9 +34.5 +12.5 +22.6 +29.4 22,872 3,200 6,606 22,774 3,190 6,590 +0.4 +0.3 +0.2 +15.7 +6.3 +22.7 13 Oct 17 6 Oct 17 17,232 12,877 1,755 South-East Asia Thailand Singapore Indonesia 1,712^ 3,319 5,924 North Asia South Korea Taiwan MSCI FEXJ# TOPIX (Japan) China*, H Share Hong Kong Global Dow Jones Europe** Nasdaq FBM Small Cap Index FBM EMAS Shariah Index FBM KLCI * Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ^ As at 12 Oct 17 ^^As at 29 Sep 17 ** STOXX Europe 50 Index # in USD Page 1 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Regional Markets Rose Amid Firmer Currencies
2. Market Commentary Malaysia - Industrial production growth gained pace to 6 .8% in August from 6.1% in July on the back of higher mining output. Fig 1. Malaysia's Industrial Production Index YoY % 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Industrial Production Index (LHS) Manufacturing Output (RHS) Apr-17 YoY % 6.8% 10.0 6.1% 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 Jun-17 Aug-17 Mining (RHS) Global - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised up its global GDP growth forecast for 2018 from 3.6% to 3.7% due mainly to stronger economic activities in both the advanced and emerging economies. The IMF raised its China GDP growth forecasts by 0.1% each to 6.8% for 2017 and 6.5% for 2018. U.S. - Led by higher food and energy prices, the inflation rate climbed to 2.2% in September from 1.9% in August. However, the core inflation rate (excluding energy & food prices) was sustained at 1.7% over the same period. - Based on preliminary estimates, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to a near 14-year high of 101.1 in October amid optimism over the U.S. economic outlook. China - Export growth strengthened to a 3-month high of 8.1% in September from 5.6% in August due to higher exports to the U.S. and European Union. The trade surplus narrowed to US$28.5 billion in September from US$41.9 billion in August. Singapore - Advance estimates showed that Singapore’s GDP growth accelerated to 4.6% in 3Q2017 from 2.9% in 2Q2017 amid higher manufacturing and services activities. Commodity - On a weekly basis, Brent crude oil prices firmed by 2.8% to close at US$57.17/brl on the back of higher demand from Asian economies. - The CRB Commodity Price Index, which measures a broad range of commodities such as food, metals and raw materials, inched up by 0.1% to close at 430.29 points for the week. Brent oil price CRB Index Selected Weekly Commodity Prices Level % Weekly change US$57.17/brl +2.8% 430.29 points +0.1% % YTD change +0.6% +1.7% Page 2 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF 2. Economic Commentary
3. Regional & Global GDP Statistics Source: Bloomberg 2017F 6.7 6.5 5.2 5.1 3.4 2.5 2.8 2.2 2.3 3.5 1.5 2.2 2.1 2016 6.7 6.9 5.0 4.2 2.0 2.0 2.8 1.5 2.5 3.2 1.0 1.5 1.8 2018F 6.4 6.6 5.4 4.8 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.2 2.7 3.5 1.1 2.4 1.8 MARKET BRIEF GDP Growth (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S. Eurozone f=consensus forecast Regional & Global Inflation Statistics Inflation rate (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S. Eurozone 2017F 1.7 3.1 4.0 3.7 1.7 0.8 1.9 0.8 2.0 0.7 0.5 2.1 1.5 2016 2.0 1.8 3.5 2.1 2.4 -0.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.2 -0.1 1.3 0.2 2018F 2.2 3.4 4.2 2.5 2.5 1.2 1.8 1.3 2.2 1.5 0.8 2.0 1.4 Source: Bloomberg f=consensus forecast Regional & Global Markets’ Valuations Australia China ‘H’ Shares Hong Kong Shanghai Comp Thailand Singapore Taiwan Philippines Indonesia Japan South Korea U.S.(1) Europe Historic P/E(2) (x) 14.60 10.84 12.73 15.86 12.84 14.27 15.28 16.10 14.78 17.51 11.32 17.27(3) 13.93(3) Prospective P/E (x) 16.04 8.79 12.94 14.75 17.01^ 15.15 15.07 20.53 17.49 15.18 10.60 19.37 16.11 Estimated Dividend Yield (%) 4.38 3.49 3.22 1.98 2.76^ 3.26 3.81 1.45 2.07 1.97 1.56 1.95 3.78 Source: Bloomberg, 13 Oct 17 ^ As at 12 Oct 17 (1) S&P500 Index (2) 2007-2016 historical average (3) 1997-2016 historical average Page 3 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
4.  On the regional front, investors are awaiting the outcome of China’s 19th Party Congress on 18 October to assess the formation of the 7-member Standing Committee, which will represent the top leadership of the Communist Party of China.  On the local front, Malaysia’s upcoming 2018 Budget on 27 October will be keenly watched as it will provide the new official forecast of Malaysia’s 2018 GDP growth. As at 13 October 2017, the local market traded in line with its historical average P/E ratio: - P/E valuation: prospective P/E ratio of 16.4x was in line with the 10-year historical average. - Dividend yield: 3.27% was above the 12-month FD rate of 3.11%*. The average P/E ratio of the regional markets, as proxied by the MSCI Far East ex-Japan Index, was above its 10-year historical average: - The average FD rate offered by four key domestic banks Bursa Securities’ Market Valuations FBM KLCI PER (x) Dividend Yield 3mth InterBk 12mth FD ^ 13 Oct 17 1,755 16.40 3.27% 3.43% 3.10% 2007-2016 historical average 6 Oct 17 1,764 16.47 3.25% 3.43% 3.10% 10-yr av.^ 16.43 3.56% 3.27% - Source: Bloomberg Bursa Securities' 10-Year P/E Ratio MSCI FE ex-Japan's 10-Year P/E Ratio 25 20 15 10 Average: 16.4x 5 13 Oct 17 P/E: 14.1x P/E Ratio (x) 13 Oct 17 P/E: 16.4x 20 P/E Ratio (x) * Regional P/E valuations: 14.1x versus the 10-year historical average of 13.5x. 15 10 Average: 13.5x 5 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Page 4 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF 3. Market Outlook & Valuations  Although U.S. 3Q2017 GDP growth may be dampened by the impact of hurricanes, the Federal Reserve may still consider a rate hike before year-end as it remains fairly optimistic on the country’s medium-term growth outlook.
5. 4 . Bond Market Commentary & Outlook U.S. Treasuries (UST) - For the week ended 13 October 2017, the UST benchmark yields moved lower on the back of subdued U.S. inflation data. The 10-year UST yield fell by 9 basis points (bps) to close at 2.27% over the week. Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) - The MGS benchmark yields closed mixed for the week, with the yield of longer-tenured issues moving slightly lower on a stronger Ringgit. The 10year MGS yield eased by 1 bp to close at 3.89% for the week. Local Corporate Bonds & Bond Funds’ Performance - Foreign Exchange Weekly Changes of Selected Currencies versus the US$ Currency per Weekly % US$ change Korean Won 1,129 +1.2 Euro 0.85 +1.0 Australian Dollar 1.27 +0.9 Singapore Dollar 1.35 +0.8 Chinese Yuan 6.59 +0.8 Japanese Yen 112 +0.7 Ringgit 4.22 +0.4 Indonesia Rupiah 13,490 +0.1 Dollar Index* 93.09 -0.8 Resilient corporate bond prices underpinned the bond funds’ positive performances over the week. YTD % change +6.5 +12.1 +8.5 +6.6 +5.4 +4.2 +6.3 -0.5 -8.9 Source: Bloomberg *An index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. Bond Market Outlook - In the medium term, global bond investors will continue to assess the potential impact of the U.S Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policies on global bond yields. - In the Malaysian bond market, market participants will closely monitor the movement of global bond yields and the pace of further Federal funds rate hikes. Page 5 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Commentary
6. Change in Interest Rates & Bond Yields KLIBOR U.S. T Bill U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp 'AA' Corp U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp 'AA' Corp U.S. T Bond MGS 'AAA' Corp 'AA' Corp 13 Oct 17 6 Oct 17 3 Month Interest Rates 3.43 3.43 1.07 1.06 3 Year 1.63 1.64 3.40 3.38 4.18 4.17 4.39 4.39 5 Year 1.90 1.96 3.59 3.59 4.35 4.34 4.56 4.56 10 Year 2.27 2.36 3.89 3.90 4.65 4.65 4.89 4.89 % change* +1 MARKET BRIEF (in %) -1 +2 +1 -6 +1 -9 -1 - * in basis points Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Page 6 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
7. Performance of Equity and Balanced Funds * Local Funds 13 Oct 17 6 Oct 17 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark Invest in Local Market Only PIX 0.6678 0.6690 -0.2 PRSF 0.6164 0.6162 +0.03 PSSF 0.3034 0.3040 -0.2 POGF 0.3106 0.3107 -0.03 PRSSQF 0.2656 0.2664 -0.3 Allowed to Invest in Foreign Markets up to 25%/30% of Fund's NAV PSF 0.5450 0.5445 +0.1 PGF 0.4754 0.4735 +0.4 PINDGF 0.5258 0.5262 -0.1 PAGF 0.6469 0.6468 +0.02 PBF 0.6718 0.6720 -0.03 P SmallCap 0.8859 0.8847 +0.1 PEF 0.2719 0.2721 -0.1 PFSF 0.2862 0.2847 +0.5 PDSF 0.2770 0.2759 +0.4 PSA30F 0.2944 0.2949 -0.2 PBBF 0.7910 0.7913 -0.04 PBGF 0.8031 0.8014 +0.2 PBGSQF 0.2791 0.2794 -0.1 PSSCF 0.3392 0.3380 +0.4 PBMAC 0.2652 0.2646 +0.2 PBBSQF 0.2637 0.2637 PSMACF 0.2889 0.2883 +0.2 PSMAGF 0.2733 0.2734 -0.04 PSTGF 0.2918 0.2889 +1.0 PBDBEF 0.2759 0.2764 -0.2 PSTEF 0.2963 0.2934 +1.0 PAVGEF 0.2887 0.2882 +0.2 PGRBF 0.2860 0.2846 +0.5 PBSCGF 0.2716 0.2700 +0.6 PEMOF 0.2778 0.2776 +0.1 PBMAGRF 0.2738 0.2723 +0.6 PeFAF 0.2541 0.2531 +0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 +0.6 -0.5 +0.7 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 +0.6 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 +0.6 -0.5 -0.3 +0.6 +0.6 -0.3 -0.3 Local Islamic Funds 13 Oct 17 6 Oct 17 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark Invest in Local Market Only PISSF 0.2623 0.2617 +0.2 PISTF 0.3478 0.3470 +0.2 PIOGF 0.2785 0.2786 -0.04 PISEF 0.3754 0.3748 +0.2 Allowed to Invest in Foreign Markets up to 25%/30% of Fund's NAV P Ittikal 0.8562 0.8537 +0.3 PIEF 0.3434 0.3421 +0.4 PIOF 0.4554 0.4510 +1.0 PIMXAF 0.2535 0.2520 +0.6 PIDF 0.3697 0.3683 +0.4 PIA40GF 0.2978 0.2968 +0.3 PISVF 0.3029 0.3013 +0.5 PITGF 0.3041 0.3029 +0.4 PITSEQ 0.3075 0.3066 +0.3 PBIEF 0.2650 0.2649 +0.04 PISGIF 0.2453 0.2451 +0.1 PESMACF 0.2708 0.2691 +0.6 PESMAGF 0.3127 0.3116 +0.4 PIENTEF 0.2582 0.2576 +0.2 PIAVGEF 0.2852 0.2832 +0.7 PIGRBF 0.2931 0.2916 +0.5 PIEMOF 0.2947 0.2932 +0.5 PBISCF 0.2561 0.2545 +0.6 +0.2 +0.8 +0.2 +0.2 PRS-GRF PRS-MDF PRS-CVF PRS-IGRF PRS-IMDF PRS-ICVF PRS-EQF PRS-SEQF PRS-ISEQF 6 Oct 17 0.2699 0.2745 0.2719 0.3008 0.2864 0.2666 0.2990 0.3115 0.2903 0.2688 0.2731 0.2718 0.2987 0.2861 0.2664 0.2973 0.3100 0.2880 6 Oct 17 0.3525 0.2820 0.3374 0.3205 0.3028 0.3820 0.3455 0.3051 0.3100^ 0.3051 0.3536 0.3740 0.2446 0.2785 0.4559 0.2926 0.3275 0.3129^ 0.3072 0.3438 0.4253 0.2883 0.3091 0.3647 0.3423 0.2950 0.2696 0.3070 0.3382 1.4167 0.3033 0.2872 0.3124 0.2742^ 0.2789 0.2514 0.3493 0.2772 0.3348 0.3195 0.3008 0.3788 0.3437 0.3044 0.3085 0.3035 0.3533 0.3745 0.2439 0.2715 0.4513 0.2925 0.3241 0.3109 0.3037 0.3432 0.4264 0.2860 0.3029 0.3617 0.3417 0.2903 0.2702 0.3014 0.3396 1.4005 0.3037 0.2870 0.3102 0.2724 0.2779 0.2511 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.9 +1.4 +1.7 +1.3 +0.8 +0.4 +0.3 +0.6 +0.7 +0.9 +0.8 +1.0 +0.5 +0.5 +0.2 +0.3 +0.5 +0.5 +0.5 +0.7 +0.1 +0.9 -0.1 +0.5 +0.3 +0.4 +2.6 +3.1 +1.0 +1.2 +0.03 -0.05 +1.0 +1.4 +0.6 +0.5 +1.2 +1.2 +0.2 +0.7 -0.3 +0.2 +0.8 +1.4 +2.0 +1.6 +0.8 +1.4 +0.2 +0.2 +1.6 +1.9 -0.2 -0.05 +1.9 +1.6 -0.4 +0.4 +1.2 +1.0 -0.1 +0.5 +0.1 +0.5 +0.7 +0.5 +0.7 +0.5 +0.4 +0.1 +0.1 +0.6 Foreign Islamic Funds PAIF PIADF PIATAF PCIF PIALEF PBIAEF PBIASSF PIOEF 13 Oct 17 6 Oct 17 0.3910 0.3641 0.3891 0.3181 0.3993 0.3252 0.3060 0.3052 0.3857 0.3609 0.3857 0.3161 0.3969 0.3221 0.3042 0.3044 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +1.4 +1.4 +0.9 +1.1 +0.9 +1.1 +0.6 +0.7 +0.6 +1.5 +1.0 +1.2 +0.6 +1.4 +0.3 +0.9 Public Mutual's Bond Funds Performance +0.2 +0.2 +0.6 +0.1 +0.2 +0.4 +0.2 +0.7 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.05 +0.02 +0.3 +0.01 +0.03 +0.7 +0.6 Public Mutual's Private Retirement Scheme Funds Performance 13 Oct 17 PFES PRSEC PGSF PFEDF PFEBF PTAF PCSF PFEPRF PSEASF PFECTF PCTF PFETIF PWEF PAUEF PFA30F PINDOSF PBAEF PBADF PBEPEF PBCPEF PBCAEF PBCAUEF PBSGA30EF PBAPENTF PBAREIF PBADBF PBINDOBF PSGEF PBAEGF PBDYNAF PBGEF PSTBLF POEF PBADSQF PNVGF PBAPDF 13 Oct 17 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.4 +0.3 +0.5 +0.3 +0.04 +0.1 +0.7 +0.6 +0.1 +0.5 +0.1 +0.1 +0.6 -0.4 +0.5 +0.3 +0.8 +0.7 P BOND PI BOND PIN BOND PEBF PSBF PIEBF PISBF PIINCOME PBFI PBIBF PBINFBF PIINFBF PSTBF PISTBF PSKF PBBOND PBSKF PENTBF PBASF 13 Oct 17 6 Oct 17 0.9362 1.0023 1.0044 1.0473 1.0205 1.1209 1.0301 1.0445 1.0496 1.1301 1.0721 1.0737 1.0733 1.0603 1.0399 1.0395 1.0463 1.0152 1.0649 0.9355 1.0014 1.0037 1.0462 1.0199 1.1194 1.0292 1.0438 1.0487 1.1291 1.0715 1.0730 1.0726 1.0595 1.0391 1.0386 1.0456 1.0142 1.0639 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Public Mutual's Money Market Funds Performance 13 Oct 17 PMMF PIMMF PeCDF PeICDF PBCMF PBCPF PBICMF PBICPF *Buying price 1.0168 1.0200 1.0013 1.0014 1.0100 1.0016 1.0078 1.0012 ^ As at 12 Oct 17 6 Oct 17 1.0162 1.0193 1.0006 1.0007 1.0094 1.0009 1.0072 1.0006 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Page 7 of 12 FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Foreign Funds
8. 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 29 September 2017 Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # 0.8 1.8 0.8 3.5 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 7.1 6.7 6.6 6.4 Allowed to Invest in Foreign Markets up to 25% / 30% of Fund's NAV Public Aggressive Growth Fund (PAGF) Public Dividend Select Fund (PDSF) Public Equity Fund (PEF) Public Growth Fund (PGF) Public Industry Growth Fund (PINDGF) Public Savings Fund (PSF) Public Select Alpha-30 Fund (PSA30F) PB Growth Fund (PBGF) PB Growth Sequel Fund (PBGSQF) 1.7 0.8 3.4 3.7 3.6 2.2 -0.4 4.4 0.5 Moderate Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.5 6.0 6.2 6.0 6.9 6.8 8.0 6.8 7.6 Islamic Non Regional Funds Invest in Local Market Only Public Islamic Optimal Growth Fund Public Islamic Sector Select Fund Public Islamic Select Enterprises Fund 0.4 -1.0 0.1 Moderate Moderate Low 6.2 6.3 6.2 Allowed to Invest in Foreign Markets up to 25% / 30% of Fund's NAV Public Islamic Alpha-40 Growth Fund (PIA40GF) Public Islamic Dividend Fund (PIDF) Public Islamic Equity Fund (PIEF) Public Islamic Growth & Income Fund (PISGIF) Public Ittikal Fund (P ITTIKAL) Public Ittikal Sequel Fund (PITSEQ) Public Islamic Savings Fund (PISVF) PB Islamic Equity Fund (PBIEF) 2.0 2.2 2.5 0.6 2.1 1.6 3.5 2.8 Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Moderate 6.5 5.8 6.2 6.3 5.6 6.2 6.2 6.6 Small & Mid Cap Funds Invest in Local Market Only Public Islamic Select Treasures Fund 5.2 High 8.4 2.8 5.4 2.1 6.5 0.8 Moderate High Moderate Moderate High 7.3 8.0 7.0 7.7 8.4 Fund Name I. EQUITY FUNDS Non Regional Funds Invest in Local Market Only Public Index Fund Public Optimal Growth Fund Public Regular Savings Fund Public Sector Select Fund (PIX) (POGF) (PRSF) (PSSF) (PIOGF) (PISSF) (PISEF) (PISTF) Allowed to Invest in Foreign Markets up to 25% / 30% of Fund's NAV Public Focus Select Fund (PFSF) Public SmallCap Fund (P SmallCap) Public Strategic SmallCap Fund (PSSCF) Public Islamic Opportunities Fund (PIOF) Public Islamic Treasures Growth Fund (PITGF) Page 8 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Return and Volatility Measures for Public Mutual’s Funds For the 3 Years Period Ended 29 September 2017
9. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAUEF) (PCSF) (PCTF) (PFA30F) (PFECTF) (PFEDF) (PFEPRF) (PFES) (PFETIF) (PINDOSF) (PRSEC) (PSGEF) (PSEASF) (PBAEGF) (PBADF) (PBAEF) (PBAPENTF) (PBCAEF) (PBCAUEF) (PBCPEF) (PBSGA30EF) 5.9 21.7 15.3 20.7 6.9 12.7 8.4 15.6 7.5 7.1 11.3 8.1 7.5 12.4 8.1 15.3 12.4 18.3 16.4 22.9 7.2 Very High Very High Very High Very High High High High Very High High Very High High Very High High High Moderate High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High 12.8 14.0 14.6 11.3 9.8 10.4 8.5 12.0 8.8 13.6 10.4 10.8 8.1 10.6 7.3 9.7 11.3 12.0 13.5 14.2 11.1 (PAIF) (PCIF) (PIADF) (PIALEF) (PBIAEF) (PBIASSF) 13.8 14.1 12.1 14.4 14.0 13.4 High High High High High High 9.4 10.6 8.7 10.4 9.5 9.6 (PGSF) (PWEF) (PBEPEF) 12.8 2.2 13.2 High High High 9.5 10.3 9.5 (PBF) (PFEBF) (PTAF) (PBAREIF) (PBADBF) (PBBF) (PBBSQF) (PBDYNAF) (PBINDOBF) (PBMAC) 2.8 9.6 16.1 6.7 5.1 4.0 1.8 10.6 7.4 3.5 Low Moderate High Low Moderate Low Low High Very High Low 4.4 7.8 9.4 5.7 8.2 4.2 4.3 9.7 10.6 3.4 (PIMXAF) (PIATAF) 0.2 12.1 Low High 5.5 9.2 Fund Name Regional Funds Public Australia Equity Fund Public China Select Fund Public China Titans Fund Public Far-East Alpha-30 Fund Public Far-East Consumer Themes Fund Public Far-East Dividend Fund Public Far-East Property & Resorts Fund Public Far-East Select Fund Public Far-East Telco & Infrastructure Fund Public Indonesia Select Fund Public Regional Sector Fund Public Singapore Equity Fund Public South-East Asia Select Fund PB Asia Emerging Growth Fund PB ASEAN Dividend Fund PB Asia Equity Fund PB Asia Pacific Enterprises Fund PB China ASEAN Equity Fund PB China Australia Equity Fund PB China Pacific Equity Fund PB Singapore Advantage-30 Equity Fund Islamic Regional Funds Public Asia Ittikal Fund Public China Ittikal Fund Public Islamic Asia Dividend Fund Public Islamic Asia Leaders Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Strategic Sector Fund Global Funds Public Global Select Fund Public Worldwide Equity Fund PB Euro Pacific Equity Fund II. BALANCED FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Balanced Fund Public Far-East Balanced Fund Public Tactical Allocation Fund PB Asia Real Estate Income Fund PB Australia Dynamic Balanced Fund PB Balanced Fund PB Balanced Sequel Fund PB Dynamic Allocation Fund PB Indonesia Balanced Fund PB Mixed Asset Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Mixed Asset Fund Public Islamic Asia Tactical Allocation Fund Page 9 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 29 September 2017
10. III . BOND FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Bond Fund (PBOND) 4.3 Public Enhanced Bond Fund (PEBF) 4.2 Public Enterprises Bond Fund (PENTBF) 4.3 Public Institutional Bond Fund (PIN Bond) 3.9 Public Select Bond Fund (PSBF) 3.8 Public Strategic Bond Fund (PSTBF) 4.2 PB Bond Fund (PBBOND) 4.2 PB Fixed Income Fund (PBFI) 4.3 PB Infrastructure Bond Fund (PBINFBF) 4.4 Islamic Funds Public Islamic Bond Fund (PI BOND) 4.7 Public Islamic Enhanced Bond Fund (PIEBF) 4.3 Public Islamic Income Fund (PI INCOME) 3.7 Public Islamic Infrastructure Bond Fund (PIINFBF) 4.5 Public Islamic Select Bond Fund (PISBF) 4.0 Public Islamic Strategic Bond Fund (PISTBF) 3.8 Public Sukuk Fund (PSKF) 4.3 PB Aiman Sukuk Fund (PBASF) 4.8 PB Islamic Bond Fund (PBIBF) 4.7 PB Sukuk Fund (PBSKF) 4.4 IV. MONEY MARKET FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Money Market Fund (PMMF) 3.4 PB Cash Management Fund (PBCMF) 3.3 PB Cash Plus Fund (PBCPF) 3.4 Islamic Funds Public Islamic Money Market Fund (PIMMF) 3.2 PB Islamic Cash Management Fund (PBICMF) 3.1 PB Islamic Cash Plus Fund (PBICPF) 3.2 V. PRS FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Growth Fund (PRS-GRF) 1.8 Public Mutual PRS Moderate Fund (PRS-MDF) 2.3 Public Mutual PRS Conservative Fund (PRS-CVF) 3.5 Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Islamic Growth Fund (PRS-IGRF) 5.0 Public Mutual PRS Islamic Moderate Fund (PRS-IMDF) 3.5 Public Mutual PRS Islamic Conservative Fund (PRS-ICVF) 3.5 * PB series of funds are highlighted to differentiate them from the Public series of funds # Based on the fund’s portfolio returns as at 31 August 2017 (Source: Lipper) Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # Very Low Very Low Very Low n.a. Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.9 1.5 1.3 n.a. 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.8 Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Low Low Very Low Low 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.9 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Annualised Return = compounded annual rate of return of the fund over the specific period. The Volatility Factor (VF) means there is a possibility for the fund in generating an upside return or downside return around this VF. The Volatility Class (VC) is assigned by Lipper based on quintile ranks of VF for qualified funds. VF is subject to monthly revision and VC is revised every six months. The volatility banding for the “Very Low”, “Low”, “Moderate”, “High” and “Very High” VCs as at 30 June 2017 are 0.000 ≤ VF ≤ 1.870, 1.870 < VF ≤ 6.225, 6.225 < VF ≤ 8.225, 8.225 < VF ≤ 10.735 and VF more than 10.735 respectively. For this period to 31 December 2017 the VCs for the funds are based on the VFs of the respective funds as at 30 June 2017. The fund’s portfolio may have changed since this date and there is no guarantee that the fund will continue to have the same VF or VC in the future. Presently, only funds launched in the market for at least 36 months will display the VF and its VC. Page 10 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Fund Name 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 29 September 2017
11. Glossary Definition Price Earnings Ratio The Price Earnings Ratio (PER) is the ratio of a company's current share price compared to its earnings per share. The PER of the market is derived from the aggregate market capitalisation divided by the total net profits of the listed companies in the relevant market. Dividend yield is the ratio of a company’s dividend per share to its stock price. The dividend yield of the market is computed as the total gross dividends of the market divided by the aggregate market capitalisation. A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. The inflation rate measures the change in the general level of prices for goods and services. Industrial Production Index (IPI) is an economic indicator which shows the production of output from industrial activities such as mining, manufacturing and utilities. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey-based index that indicates the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are expanding while a reading below 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are contracting. The consumer confidence index measures the level of consumers’ sentiment regarding the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. An improving trend in the consumer confidence index suggests that consumer spending may be rising. A fiscal deficit arises when a government's total expenditures exceed the revenue that it collects. The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) is an overnight interest rate set by Bank Negara Malaysia. It is the interest rate that a borrower bank has to pay to a lending bank for the funds borrowed. Increasing the OPR will result in higher interest rates for the economy. There are two main yield calculations. (1) Current yield is calculated by dividing a bond’s coupon by its market price or valuation. A bond’s yield moves inversely to its price. (2) Yield-to-maturity is the return attributable to investors if the bond is held to maturity. A government policy that aims to reduce the budget deficit over time. This is implemented through measures to increase taxes and/or reduce government spending. In general, the lower the budget deficit, the lower the potential supply of government bonds to be issued to finance the government’s budget deficit. Dividend yield GDP Inflation IPI PMI Consumer Confidence Index Fiscal deficit OPR Bond yields Fiscal consolidation Page 11 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
12. THE CONTENTS OF THIS REPORT ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY AND NO PART OF THIS REPORT IS TO BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO INVEST IN PUBLIC MUTUAL ’S FUNDS. This Weekly Wrap report summarises the movement of the equity and bond markets as well as the funds’ performance for the period under review and is intended for circulation to the unitholders of Public Mutual. The Market Brief is prepared based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but Public Mutual does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The Fund Performance Review summarises the fund’s weekly performance compared against its benchmark. The fund’s 3-year return together with its volatility class and factor (as at the end of the previous month) are shown to give readers a better perspective of the fund’s longer term performance and its risk. Readers should note that past performance of a fund is not an indication of its future performance. No part of this report may be shared, reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed or published in any manner without the written consent of Public Mutual. Public Mutual does not accept any liability, be it directly, indirectly or consequential losses or damages that may arise from any reliance based on this report. Page 12 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.