Malaysian Economy - 1st Quarter 2016

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8 years ago

Malaysian Economy - 1st Quarter 2016

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Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 Highlights • Global growth remains moderate • Malaysian economy expands further • Growth driven by domestic economic activities • Economy on track to achieve 4% - 4.5% growth in 2016 International Performance Slower global recovery Global economic recovery continued at a slower pace in the first quarter of 2016 owing to a modest expansion across the advanced economies as well as emerging market and developing economies. Amid improvements in the labour market, the US sustained i t s g r o w t h m o m e n t u m, s u p p o r te d by ste ad y c o ns u m pti o n ac ti v i ti e s d e s p i te an unfavourable investment climate. T h e e u r o a r e a c o nti n u e d to g row o n ac c ou nt of ste ad y consumer spending and an accommodative monetary policy. 5($/*5266'20(67,&352'8&7)256(/(&7('&28175,(6 DQQXDOFKDQJH 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 'HYHORSHG(FRQRPLHV 8QLWHG6WDWHV -DSDQ 8. (XUR$UHD QD $VLD &KLQD 6RXWK.RUHD $6($1 ,QGRQHVLD 3KLOLSSLQHV 6LQJDSRUH 7KDLODQG QD 0DOD\VLD $GYDQFHHVWLPDWHV QDQRWDYDLODEOH 6RXUFH1DWLRQDOVRXUFHVDQG,QWHUQDWLRQDO0RQHWDU\)XQG,0) Meanwhile, Japan’s e c o no my re m a in e d weak. Among the emerging market economies, China registered a stable g r o wt h dr ive n by a s t r o n g e r s e r v i c e s sector and a rebound in the property market, amid continued contraction in exports and imports due to weak aggregate demand. ASEAN economies recorded a marginal slowdown during the quarter due to weak external demand. During the first quarter of 2016, the US economy registered a growth of 2% (Q4 2015: 2%), mainly due to a slowdown in private investment, amid sustained personal consumption expenditure at 2.7% (Q4 2015: 2.7%). Private investment declined by 0.1% (Q4 2015: 2.9%) following the deceleration in non-residential investment by 0.4% (Q4 2015: 1.5%). However, the housing industry expanded as reflected by the higher fixed residential investment of 10.6% (Q4 2015: 9.4%), supported by low mortgage rates coupled with increased employment opportunities. Export growth turned around by 0.3% (Q4 2015: -0.6%) largely due to a strong demand for travel and transport services despite the appreciating dollar. Imports
2 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 softened to 1.2% (Q4 2015: 2.9%) due to lower import of industrial supplies and materials, consumer goods as well as capital goods. On the supply side, industrial production decreased by 2.7% (Q4 2015: 0.4%), resulting from the decline in mining and utilities output. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index increased marginally to 49.8 points (Q4 2015: 49 points) following higher production of textile and wood products. However, the non-manufacturing index was lower at 53.8 points (Q4 2015: 56.8 points) mainly due to lower production of m i n i n g products with the cap a c it y utilisation rate slowing to 75.3% (Q4 2015: 77%). Retail sales increased by 9.6% (Q4 2015: 0.9%) mainly supported by rising sales of building materials and garden equipment. Meanwhile, inflation rose to 1.1% (Q4 2015: 0.4%) due to higher prices of shelter and medical care. The unemployment rate was lower at 4.9% (Q4 2015: 5%) as the labour market conditions improved further following strong job creation mainly in the retail and health care sectors. The UK’s growth sustained at 2.1% (Q4 2015: 2.1%) mainly supported by the services sector, which grew at a stronger pace of 2.7% (Q4 2015: 2.5%). All services subsectors recorded positive growth, particularly the business services and finance at 2.1% (Q4 2015: 2%) as well as distribution, hotel and restaurants at 4.9% (Q4 2015: 4.6%). However, the production sector registered a slower growth of 0.1% (Q4 2015: 0.8%), mainly contributed by sluggish manufacturing activities which contracted by 1.3% (Q4 2015: -1%) following a drop in retail sales. The construction sector declined by 1.7% (Q4 2015: 1%) mainly due to the impact of poor weather with floods in many parts of the country as well as shortage of skills, particularly in house building. The inflation rate rose by 0.4% (Q4 2015: 0.1%) attributed to an increase in air fares and clothing prices. The Bank of England continued to maintain its policy rate at 0.50% since March 2009. During the first quarter of 2016, the euro area continued to grow by 1.5% (Q4 2015: 1.6%) despite heightened uncertainty at the start of the year. Growth was largely fuelled by s te a d y d o m e s t i c a c t i v i t i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y private consumption. Low energy prices, an improving labour market and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) accommodative monetary policy also continued to support growth. The unemployment rate improved further to 10.3% (Q4 2015: 10.5%) due to better labour market conditions, while inflation was flat at 0% (Q4 2015: 0.1%), largely due to subdued energy prices. In an effort to raise inflation and stimulate credit creation to increase lending, the ECB announced a broad package of monetary policy changes in March 2016. Beginning 16 March 2016, the ECB further lowered the interest rate on the main financing operations, marginal lending facility and deposit facility to 0%, 0.25% and -0.40%, respectively. The monthly asset purchase programme was also expanded from EUR60 billion to EUR80 billion in April 2016 with the inclusion of investment grade non-bank corporate debt in the list of assets eligible for regular purchases. Additionally, a series of four new targeted longerterm refinancing operations (TLTROs), each with a maturity of four years, will be launched starting June 2016 to incentivise banks to lend more money in the market. In Germany, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth increased by 1.6% (Q4 2015: 1.3%) largely due to an improvement in the industrial production a s we l l a s s te a d y d o m e s ti c d e m a n d, e s p e c i a l l y p r i vate c o ns u m pti o n. G row th in the industrial production turned around by 1.4% (Q4 2015: -0.2%) on account of increased manufacturing
3 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 output following higher demand for G e r m a n p r o d u c t s . H oweve r, r e t a i l t r a d e was lower at 1.3% (Q4 2015: 2.8%) as nominal earnings were impacted due to heightened volatility in the financial market which triggered a fall in domestic equities. Meanwhile, exports growth slowed down to 0.7% (Q4 2015: 4.9%), while imports decelerated by 0.5% (Q4 2015: 4.2%), owing to the sluggish demand from emerging markets and European economies. In the labour market, the unemployment rate trended downwards to 4.3% (Q4 2015: 4.5%). Meanwhile, inflation was lower at 0.1% (Q4 2015: 0.2%), as overall price pressures, especially for energy remained weak. France registered a moderate GDP growth of 1.3% (Q4 2015: 1.4%), underpinned by ste ad y domestic demand. Household consumption expenditure on goods increased by 1.7% (Q4 2015: 1.1%), particularly due to higher spending on energy following cooler temperatures as well as increased purchases of consumer electronic products. On the supply side, industrial production grew at a slower pace of 0.5% (Q4 2015: 2%), partly due to the continuous decline in the construction subsector and lower manufacturing output growth. Meanwhile, the labour market improved further with the unemployment rate recording 10.1% (Q4 2015: 10.2%). The lower rate was largely attributed to a EUR2.2 billion package introduced by the government to subsidise job creation in January 2016. The French economy registered a flat inflation rate of 0% (Q4 2015: 0.2%), partly due to lower prices of products and services following the winter sales. Japan’s e conomy re mained we ak dur ing t h e f i r s t q u a r t e r o f 2 0 16 . E x p o r t s continued to decline by 5.6% (Q4 2015: -11.3%), mainly affected by the lower prices for sales of steel and chemical products amid the global slowdown in commodity and energy markets. Inflation rate remained subdued at 0.1% (Q4 2015: 0.3%) as prices of food eased while the cost of housing and transport declined further. The Bank of Japan (B OJ ) a do pt e d a n e g a t ive be n c h m a r k rate of 0.1% on January 2016, aiming to achieve a price stability target of 2%. The negative interest rate policy charged banks 0.1% for parking additional reserves with the BOJ to encourage banks to lend and prompt businesses as well as depositors to spend and invest. China’s economy registered a stable growth of 6.7% (Q4 2015: 6.8%) during the first quarter of 2016, mainly supported by a robust services sector and a rebound in the property market. Exports and imports further contracted by 9.7% and 13.3%, respectively (Q4 2015: -4.9%; -11.5%) amid declining commodity prices and weak aggregate demand. Investment in new real estate surged by 6.2% (Q4 2015: -3.2%), resulting from buoyant housing sales, especially on office buildings as well as the rollout of the government’s supportive housing policies. Similarly, investment in fixed assets rose by 10.7% (Q4 2015: 8.9%), largely attributed to public investment in infrastructure, focusing on projects aimed at promoting regional development. On the supply side, the manufacturing sector continued to slow as reflected in the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which averaged 49.5 points (Q4 2015: 49.7 points) due to relatively fragile market conditions and subdued demand. Meanwhile, the services sector recorded a strong growth of 7.6% (Q4 2015: 8.2%), mainly contributed by higher household electricity consumption. Inflation increased to 2.1% (Q4 2015: 1.5%) as food prices surged over the Lunar New Year holiday, coupled with unusually cold weather. In February 2016, the People’s Bank of China further lowered the banks’ reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points to 17% to spur the slowing economy. The oneyear lending rate and one-year deposit rate remained at 4.35% and 1.50%, respectively since October 2015.
4 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 Korea’s economy moderated by 2.7% during the first quarter of 2016 (Q4 2015: 3%), mainly due to sluggish exports and weak private consumption. Exports grew marginally by 0.1% (Q4 2015: 2.5%), as demand for petroleum and coal products as well as automobiles decreased amid waning global demand. Private consumption registered a slower growth of 2.1% (Q4 2015: 3.3%), partly as a result of a base effect from spending gains in the fourth quarter of 2015, despite a boost in fiscal spending and the reintroduction of a consumption tax cut on cars from 5% to 3.5%. The services sector grew at a slower pace of 2.5% (Q4 2015: 2.7%), led by the growth in the finance and insurance subsector that offset a decline in the wholesale and retail trade subsector. Within the ASEAN region, Indonesia’s GDP grew at a moderate pace of 4.9% (Q4 2015: 5%) as the growth in government spending trended downwards by 2.9% (Q4 2015: 7.3%). The slower growth was mainly due to a shallow tax base and falling revenue owing largely to lower-than-expected global oil and gas prices. Meanwhile, private consumption remained steady at 4.9% (Q4 2015: 4.9%). On the supply side, growth was mainly contributed by higher human health and social work subsector as well as business activities, which grew by 8.5% and 8.1%, respectively (Q4 2015: 7.4%; 8.1%). Inflation eased to 4.3% (Q4 2015: 4.8%) due to prolonged weakness in global commodity prices. Bank Indonesia lowered its policy rate by 75 basis points to 6.75% during the quarter to sustain growth. Thailand’s GDP expanded by 3.2% (Q4 2015: 2.8%) mainly supported by domestic demand particularly government spending and exports. Government spending expanded by 8% (Q4 2015: 4.8%) contributed by high purchases of goods and services as well as social welfare benefit. Meanwhile, exports rebounded 5.1% (Q4 2015: -3.3%) despite significant exposure to China’s economic slowdown. On the supply side, growth was primarily contributed by non-agricultural which grew 3.7% (Q4 2015: 4%), predominantly boosted by a sharp rise of service receipts from tourists. Inflation continued to weighed down at 0.4% (Q4 2015: -0.9%) due to low domestic demand and commodity prices. The Bank of Thailand has kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% after two cuts in 2015 to stimulate growth. Singapore’s economy grew 1.8% (Q4 2 0 1 5 : 1. 8 % ) l a r g e l y c o n t r i b u t e d b y construction sector which expanded by 6.2% (Q4 2015: 4.9%). Growth of construction sector was mainly driven by public and private sector construction activities. The services sector growth moderated to 1.9% (Q4 2015: 2.8%), supported by the wholesale and retail trade as well as finance and insurance subsectors. However, manufacturing sector contracted by 2% (Q4 2015: -6.7%) due to a decline in the output of the transport engineering, precision engineering and electronics clusters. Deflation was registered at 0.8% (Q4 2015: -0.7%) as a result of lower cost of housing and utilities, transport and communication. Malaysian Economy Economy continues to expand The Malaysian economy expanded by 4.2% during the first quarter of 2016 (Q4 2015: 4.5%) supported mainly by domestic demand. On the supply side, all sectors of the economy recorded a positive growth except the agriculture sector. The services sector grew by 5.1% (Q4 2015: 5%) spurred by higher activity in the food & beverage and accommodation, utilities and business services subsectors. The manufacturing sector grew moderately by 4.5% (Q4 2015:
5 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 5%), particularly due to the moderation in the electrica l and electronics (E&E) and transport equipment segments. The construction sector expanded by 7.9% (Q4 2015: 7.4%) supported by higher civil engineering and specialised construction activities. Meanwhile, the mining and quarrying sector rebounded by 0.3% (Q4 2015: -1.3%) on account of improvement in natural gas production. However, the agriculture sector declined by 3.8% (Q4 2015: 1.5%) due to lower output of crude palm oil (CPO), rubber and fish. 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 *'3 $JULFXOWXUH 0LQLQJ 0DQXIDFWXULQJ &RQVWUXFWLRQ 6HUYLFHV 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 &RQVXPSWLRQ ,QYHVWPHQW ([SRUWV ,PSRUWV *'3 'RPGHPDQG ([FOXGLQJFKDQJHLQVWRFNV 6RXUFH'HSDUWPHQWRI6WDWLVWLFV0DOD\VLD '000 units DQQXDOFKDQJH 6XSSO\6LGH DQQXDOFKDQJH 'HPDQG6LGH PRIVATE CONSUMPTION INDICATORS 5($/*5266'20(67,&352'8&7 5($/*5266'20(67,&352'8&7 '000 units % 72 72 12 7,200 60 60 10 6,000 48 48 8 4,800 36 36 6 3,600 24 24 4 2,400 12 12 2 1,200 0 0 0 J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 RM million J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 Consumption credit Passenger car sales Imports of consumption goods (right scale) Motorcycle sales Source: Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), Motorcycle and Scooter Assemblers and Distributors Association of Malaysia (MASAAM), Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia. 6RXUFH'HSDUWPHQWRI6WDWLVWLFV0DOD\VLD Private consumption supports growth 35,9$7(,19(670(17,1',&$7256 50ELOOLRQ Domestic demand grew at a steady pace of 3.6% in the first quarter of 2016 (Q4 2015: 4 %), supported by consumption activity. Private consumption posted a higher growth of 5.3% (Q4 2015: 4.9%), mainly in communication (9.7%), clothing and footwear (8%) as well as utilities (6.9%). The growth in private consumption was supported by cash handout to the rakyat (BR1M) as well as cash assistance of RM500 to civil servants in January 2016. The positive growth in major consumption indicators, such as imports of consumption goods (24.6%) and food sales (14.2%), are indicative of the sustained growth momentum in household spending. The Consumer Sentiments Index (CSI) also improved by 9.1 points to 72.9 points (Q4 2015: 63.8 points). Meanwhile, public consumption grew by 3.8% supported by higher expenditure on supplies and services (Q4 2015: 3.3%). 0 50ELOOLRQ XQLWV 50ELOOLRQ - $ - 2 - $ - 2 - $ - 2 - $ - 2 ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ - $ - 2 - $ - 2 - $ - 2 - $ - 2 ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ ,PSRUWVRIFDSLWDOJRRGV &RPPHUFLDOYHKLFOHVDOHV ,PSRUWVRILQWHUPHGLDWHJRRGVULJKWVFDOH %DQNLQJV\VWHPORDQVDQGDGYDQFHVWR EXVLQHVVHVVHFWRUULJKWVFDOH 6RXUFH0DOD\VLDQ$XWRPRWLYH$VVRFLDWLRQ0$$'HSDUWPHQWRI6WDWLVWLFV0DOD\VLDDQG%DQN1HJDUD0DOD\VLD Growth in Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) expanded at a slower pace of 0.1% (Q4 2014: 2.7%), mainly due to lower public investment. Private investment expanded by 2.2% (Q4 2015: 4.9%), especially in the manufacturing and services sectors. Indicators such as disbursement of banking system loans and advances to businesses grew by 1.1%. MIER’s Business Conditions Index (BCI) gained 5.8 points to 92.9
6 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 points, reflecting some improvement in market sentiment (Q4 2015: 87.1 points). Public investment contracted by 4.5% (Q4 2015: 0.4%) due to lower capital spending by Non-Financial Public Enterprises (NFPEs). car prices beginning January 2016. The food & beverage and accommodation subsector increased by 6.1% (Q4 2015: 5.8%) supported by higher spending in the food and beverage segment at 6.8% (Q4 2015: 6.5%). Services sector continues to drive growth The finance and insurance subsector rebounded by 0.1% (Q4 2015: -1.5%). Growth was mainly supported by the finance segment which recorded a marginal increase of 0.2% (Q4 2015: -1.3%) following higher fee-based income from the capital market. However, the insurance segment continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace of -0.2% (Q4 2015: -2.1%) due to lower claims and moderate premium income. The real estate and business services subsector grew by 6.4% (Q4 2015: 6.1%). The real estate segment continued to expand by 4.4% (Q4 2015: 4.1%) supported by higher brokerage fees. Similarly, the business services segment increased by 7.3% (Q4 2015: 7.1%) mainly driven by professional services. The services sector expanded further by 5.1% (Q4 2015: 5%) accounting for 54% of GDP. The intermediate services group rose by 4.7% (Q4 2015: 4.1%) led by information and communication as well as real estate and business services subsectors. Meanwhile, the final services group grew by 5.4% (Q3 2015: 5.7%) bolstered by wholesale and retail trade as well as utilities subsectors. SERVICES SECTOR (% annual change) 2014 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Intermediate services 5.9 6.1 5.2 6.1 6.1 4.6 5.7 4.8 3.7 4.1 4.7 Transport and storage Information and communication Finance and insurance Real estate and business services 5.2 9.7 2.3 8.0 4.8 10.1 2.7 8.2 4.8 9.5 0.9 7.6 5.2 9.5 3.2 7.8 6.0 9.7 2.4 8.3 5.7 9.4 (0.7) 6.6 5.7 9.6 1.9 7.5 5.4 9.3 0.2 6.2 5.7 9.5 (3.1) 6.5 6.0 9.2 (1.5) 6.1 5.8 8.5 0.1 6.4 Final services 7.3 7.0 7.2 7.1 7.7 6.1 7.9 5.5 5.3 5.7 5.4 Utilities Wholesale and retail trade Food & beverages and accommodation Other services 3.8 8.9 6.5 4.8 3.2 8.5 6.3 5.3 3.0 9.3 5.9 4.3 5.1 8.4 6.0 4.7 3.9 9.4 7.6 4.7 3.5 6.9 6.4 4.7 3.7 9.8 7.3 4.6 3.9 5.8 6.6 4.7 3.1 5.7 5.8 4.8 3.2 6.4 5.8 4.6 6.7 5.2 6.1 4.6 Government services 6.2 7.6 6.8 5.8 4.7 4.0 3.8 4.0 3.2 4.7 5.3 Total services 6.6 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.6 5.1 6.4 5.0 4.4 5.0 5.1 Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia. The wholesale and retail trade subsector increased by 5.2% (Q4 2015: 6.4%). The retail segment rose by 5.4% (Q4 2015: 4.2%) spurred by increased household spending following the first disbursement of BR1M and payment of special assistance for civil servants in January. Meanwhile, the wholesale segment expanded by 8.1% (Q4 2015: 9.1%) supported by other specialised wholesale, wholesale on a fee or contract basis as well as wholesale of food, beverages and tobacco. However, the motor vehicles segment declined sharply by 5.1% (Q4 2015: 5%) due to slower demand from consumers. This was partly due to advanced purchases made during the previous quarter in anticipation of higher The information and communication subsector expanded by 8.5% (Q4 2015: 9.2%). Growth was mainly supported by the communication and information segments which increased 9.9% and 4 . 8 % , r e s p e c t i v e l y ( Q 4 2 0 1 5 : 10.5% ; 8.5%) . The transport and storage subsector increased by 5.8% (Q4 2015: 6%) supported by higher land transport activity. This was supported by strong growth of the land segment at 7.3% (Q4 2015: 7.6%) driven by higher intercity travel via train particularly during the holiday season. The Electric Train Service (ETS) and KTM Intercity Services ridership surged by 94.9% and 71%, respectively, (Q4 2015: 48.4%; 17.6%) attributed to the increasing number of electric trains to accommodate the expansion in routes and higher number of passengers during the Chinese New Year holidays. However, the total ridership on urban rail in Klang Valley declined further by 6.8% (Q4 2015: -2.5%).
7 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 a i r p o r t s d e c l i n e d by 2 1 . 9 % t o 1 9 2 , 9 9 6 tonnes (Q4 2015: -12.3%; 239,029 tonnes) with cargo to international and domestic markets decreasing by 25.9% and 5.9%, respectively (Q4 2015: -15.2%; 0%). However, the slower growth of air transport segment was cushioned by a turnaround in passenger traffic at 3 . 8 % t o 2 1 . 8 m i l l i o n ( Q 4 2 0 1 5 : - 2.9% ; 22 million). 6(/(&7('6(59,&(66(&725,1',&$7256 3257$&7,9,7< &RQWDLQHU+DQGOLQJDW0DMRU3RUWV 7(8V XQLWV 4 4 4 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 ¶ 4 ¶ &RQWDLQHUKDQGOLQJ The water transport segment grew by 1.6% (Q4 2015: 2.4%) with total volume of containers handled at seven major ports increasing by 6.8% (Q4 2015: 4.9%) to 6.1 million twentyfoot equivalent units (TEUs) (Q4 2015: 6.1 million TEUs). Port Klang and Tanjung Pelepas saw an increase in volumes handled to 3.2 million TEUs and 2.2 million TEUs, respectively (Q4 2015: 3.1 million TEUs; 2.3 million TEUs), contributing 52.3% and 36%, respectively to total container throughput (Q4 2015: 50.4%; 37.9%). 6RXUFH6HYHQPDMRUSRUWV.ODQJ-RKRU3HQDQJ.XDQWDQ7DQMXQJ3HOHSDV%LQWXOXDQG.XFKLQJ ',675,%87,9(75$'( 9ROXPH,QGH[E\6XEVHFWRU FKDQJH 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 4 4 ¶ 'LVWULEXWLYHWUDGH 4 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 ¶ 5HWDLOWUDGH 0RWRUYHKLFOH :KROHVDOHWUDGH 6RXUFH'HSDUWPHQWRI6WDWLVWLFV0DOD\VLD 87,/,7,(6 9DOXH$GGHG 50PLOOLRQ The utilities subsector increased strongly by 6.7% (Q4 2015: 3.2%), the highest growth since 2011 driven by stronger demand from households due to the hotter weather following the El Nino phenomenon. 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 ¶ 9DOXHDGGHG 6RXUFH'HSDUWPHQWRI6WDWLVWLFV0DOD\VLD (OHFWULFLW\6DOHVDQG0D[LPXP'HPDQG 0: *:K - $ ¶ - 2 - $ ¶ 6DOHVOHIWVFDOH - 2 - $ ¶ - 2 - $ ¶ - 2 - The electricity and gas segment grew by 6 . 5 % ( Q 4 2 0 1 5 : 2 . 5 % ) w i th e l e c tr i c i t y o u tp u t i n c r e a s i n g by 8.5% (Q 4 2015: 4%) f o l l o w i n g h i g h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g activ itie s a nd de ma nd f rom house holds. S i m i l a r l y, t h e w a t e r a n d s e w e r a g e segment increased by 7.7% (Q4 2015: 5.7%). ¶ 0D[LPXPGHPDQGULJKWVFDOH 6RXUFH7HQDJD1DVLRQDO%HUKDG The air transport segment continued to record a moderate growth at 2.2% (Q4 2015: 2.4%) due to slower trade activities. The air cargo handled at all Growth in the other services subsector was sustained at 4.6% (Q4 2015: 4.6%) mainly driven by private education and private health which expanded by 6.9% and 5.7%, respectively (Q4 2015: 6.8%; 5.5%). Meanwhile, the government services grew by 5.3% (Q4 2015: 4.7%).
8 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 Manufacturing sector moderates Value-added of the manufacturing sector grew at a slower pace of 4.5% during the first quarter of 2016 (Q4 2015: 5%), supported by domestic and exportoriented industries. Output increased by 4.3% (Q4 2015: 4.8%) while sales of manufacturing products declined by 1.8% to RM164.7 billion (Q4 2015: 2.5%; RM169.8 billion). The capacity utilisation rate also eased to 76.6% (Q4 2015: 78%). 3(5)250$1&(2)7+(0$18)$&785,1*6(&725 DQQXDOFKDQJH 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 3URGXFWLRQ 4 4 ¶ 4 4 4 4 ¶ 6DOHV 4 4 ¶ ([SRUWV 6RXUFH'HSDUWPHQWRI6WDWLVWLFV0DOD\VLD 352'8&7,212)7+(0$18)$&785,1*6(&725 DQQXDOFKDQJH 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 4 4 ¶ ,QGXVWULDO3URGXFWLRQ,QGH[ 4 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 ¶ 'RPHVWLFRULHQWHG,QGXVWULHV 0DQXIDFWXULQJ3URGXFWLRQ,QGH[ ([SRUWRULHQWHG,QGXVWULHV 6RXUFH'HSDUWPHQWRI6WDWLVWLFV0DOD\VLD Production of domestic-oriented industries increased at a faster pace of 6% (Q4 2015: 4.3%). The constructionrelated cluster expanded by 4.9% (Q4 2015: 4.8%) supported by output of non-metallic mineral, fabricated and basic metal products which rose by 6.8%, 5.4% and 1.9%, respectively (Q4 2015: 7.1%; 6.9%; -1.1%). The transport equipment subsector rose by 2% (Q4 2015: 3.7%) supported by manufacture of parts and accessories for motor vehicles (17.6%) as well as building of ships and boats (12.9%). However, the subsector was weighed down by the contraction in manufacture of motor vehicles and motorcycles at 20.3% and 2.8%, respectively (Q4 2015: -12.4%; -7.2%). Output of food products grew further by 12.5% (Q4 2015: 0.9%), amid higher consumption during the Chinese New Year celebration. Output of other manufactured products moderated to 9.6% (Q4 2015: 17.5%) on account of lower manufacture of irradiation, electromedical and electrotherapeutic equipment (14.7%) while production of measuring, testing, navigating and control equipment grew higher by 13.7%. Output of export-oriented industries moderated to 3.7% (Q4 2015: 4.9%) on slower external demand. Production of the E&E subsector rose by 5.7% (Q4 2015: 10.3%) mainly supported by the manufacture of electronic components and boards, consumer electronics as well as machinery and equipment wh ic h in c r e a s e d a t a s lo we r pa c e o f 5.8%, 11.2% and 3.9%, respectively, (Q4 2015: 7.8%; 55%; 9.8%) while production of computer and peripheral equipment rebounded by 7% (Q4 2015: -5.6%). The E&E subsector helped to cushion the 7.7% decline in production of communication equipment (Q4 2015: -19.1%). Output of wood products rose by 7.8% (Q4 2015: 6.2%) attributed to higher demand with production of sawmilling and planing of wood as well as manufacture of wooden and cane furniture increasing by 24.2% and 10.4%, respectively (Q4 2015: 28.5%; 5.8%). Meanwhile, the resource-based subsectors such as rubber and paper products recorded output growth of 6.9% and 7%, respectively (Q4 2015: 7%; 4.1%). However, production of offestate processing contracted by 8.1% due to lower output of crude palm oil (-10.2%) and palm kernel oil (-6.4%), respectively (Q4 2015: 1.6%; -0.6%).
9 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 CONSTRUCTION SECTOR 0$18)$&785,1*352'8&7,21,1'(; - Housing Starts DQQXDOFKDQJH 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2YHUDOO0DQXIDFWXULQJ ([SRUWRULHQWHGLQGXVWULHV (OHFWULFDODQGHOHFWURQLFSURGXFWV &KHPLFDOVDQGFKHPLFDOSURGXFWV 3HWUROHXPSURGXFWV :RRGSURGXFWV 2IIHVWDWHSURFHVVLQJ 5XEEHUSURGXFWV 3DSHUSURGXFWV 7H[WLOHVDSSDUHODQGOHDWKHU DQGIRRWZHDU 'RPHVWLFRULHQWHGLQGXVWULHV 1RQPHWDOOLFPLQHUDOV )DEULFDWHGPHWDOSURGXFWV %DVLFPHWDOV 7UDQVSRUWHTXLSPHQW )RRGSURGXFWV %HYHUDJHV 7REDFFRSURGXFWV 2WKHUV ('000 units) 60 ('000 units) 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 ‘12 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 ‘13 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 ‘14 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 ‘15 Q4 2-3 Storey terraced Low-cost flats Single storey terraced Low-cost houses Condominiums, apartments & flats Others 1 0 Q1 2 ‘16 1 Others exclude service apartment. Starting from Q1 2016, service apartment is included under Commercial Building. 2 Q1 excludes service apartment (Preliminary Data). 6RXUFH'HSDUWPHQWRI6WDWLVWLFV0DOD\VLD Source: NAPIC, Valuation & Property Services Department. Construction continues to expand Mining sector rebounds The construction sector expanded further by 7.9% during the first quarter of 2016 (Q4 2015: 7.4%) driven by strong civil engineering and specialised construction activities. The civil engineering subsector continued to post a double-digit growth of 17.5% (Q4 2015: 20.4%) supported by construction activities in utility, transportation and petrochemical projects. The specialised construction activities subsector expanded by 8.9% (Q4 2015: 4.6%) supported by earthworks and piling projects in Johor, Kuala Lumpur and Pahang. The residential subsector posted a growth of 4.9% (Q4 2015: 5.7%) aided by government initiatives on affordable housing as well as high-end housing projects particularly in Johor and Kuala Lumpur. The non-residential subsector grew at a slower pace of 0.4% (Q4 2015: 0.5%) partly due to the completion of health and education related projects. During the quarter, the total value of construction work completed continued to increase at a double-digit pace of 11.1% year-on-year to RM31.9 billion with 10,043 projects registered (Q4 2015: 11.2%; RM30.1 billion; 10,230 projects). The civil engineering subsector accounted for the highest share at 33.2% of work completed, followed by non-residential buildings (32.5%), and residential buildings (29.2%). The private sector continued to dominate construction activity with a share of 66.1% during the quarter. The mining sector rebounded by 0.3% during the first quarter of 2016 attributed to the improvement in natural gas production despite lower output of crude oil. Natural gas production recorded a smaller negative growth of 0.05% on account of improvement in Sarawak fields. However, output of crude oil and condensates contracted by 0.7%, following declining prices. 0217+/<0,1,1*352'8&7,21$1'35,&(6 &UXGHRLO EDUUHOVSHUGD\ 3ULFH 86'SHUEDUUHO 1DWXUDO*DV PPVFIG ([SRUWXQLWYDOXH 50WRQQH - $ - 2 - $ - 2 - $ - 2 - $ - 2 ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ 3URGXFWLRQ 7DSLV%OHQG 'DWHG%UHQW - $ - 2 - $ - 2 - $ - 2 - $ - 2 ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ 3URGXFWLRQ ULJKWVFDOH ([SRUW8QLW9DOXH ULJKWVFDOH 6RXUFH3HWURQDV%ORRPEHUJDQG'HSDUWPHQWRI6WDWLVWLFV0DOD\VLD '$,/<3$/02,/632735,&(6 50WRQQH '$,/<%5(177$3,62,/35,&(6 86'SHUEDUUHO 86' SHUEDUUHO 50WRQQH 50 0DU - ) 0 $ 0 - - $ 6 2 1 ' - ) 0 ¶ ¶ 86' 86' 0DU - ) 0 $ 0 - - $ 6 2 1 ' - ) 0 ¶ 'DWHG%UHQW 6RXUFH%ORRPEHUJ ¶ 7DSLV%OHQG
10 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 Prices of Dated Brent continued to fall to average USD34.4 per barrel during the quarter (Q4 2015: USD43.4 per barrel). Agriculture sector declines The agriculture sector declined by 3.8% during the first quarter of 2016 with all subsectors registering negative growth except livestock and other agriculture. Value-added of the oil palm subsector recorded a contraction of 10% (Q4 2015: 1.2%) on lower production of CPO by 10.2% to 3.4 million tonnes due to lower yields of fresh fruit bunches. Similarly, value-added of the rubber subsector dropped by 13% (Q4 2015: 26.9%) due to lower output and prices following weak demand, particularly from China. Value-added of the fishing subsector contracted by 2.1% (Q4 2015: 2.4%) due to lower marine and aquaculture produce. Meanwhile, the other agriculture subsector expanded by 6.2% (Q4 2015: 1.1%) supported by higher production of vegetables and fruits. Value-added of the livestock subsector rose by 5% (Q4 2015: 0.4%) supported by higher output of poultry. 0217+/<$*5,&8/785$/352'8&7,21$1'$9(5$*(35,&(6 3DOPRLO PLOWRQQHV 3ULFH 50SHUWRQQH 5XEEHU WRQQHV 3ULFH VHQSHUNJ - $ - 2 - $ - 2 - $ - 2 - $ - 2 ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ 3URGXFWLRQ 3ULFH 6RXUFH0DOD\VLDQ3DOP2LO%RDUG - $ - 2 - $ - 2 - $ - 2 - $ - 2 ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ 3URGXFWLRQ 3ULFH605 6RXUFH0DOD\VLDQ5XEEHU%RDUG Prices Inflation remains manageable Headline inflation, as measured by the annual change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased by 3.4% in the first quarter of 2016 (Q4 2015: 2.6%). The CPI increase was mainly contributed by higher prices recorded in three major groups, namely the food and non-alcoholic beverage; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels; as well as alcoholic be ve r a g e a n d t o ba c c o g r o u ps , whi c h contributed 2.74 percentage points to the total increase. However, prices in the transport group declined by 1.5% for the quarter, reducing the total CPI by 0.21 percentage point. The higher inflation during the first quarter was partly due to the base effect in the corresponding quarter of 2015. &2175,%87,2172,1)/$7,21 )LUVW4XDUWHU )RRGDQG1RQ$OFRKROLF%HYHUDJHV +RXVLQJ:DWHU(OHFWULFLW\ *DVDQGRWKHU)XHOV $OFRKROLF%HYHUDJHVDQG7REDFFR 0LVFHOODQHRXV*RRGVDQG6HUYLFHV )XUQLVKLQJ+RXVHKROG(TXLSPHQW DQG5RXWLQH 5HVWDXUDQWVDQG+RWHOV 5HFUHDWLRQ6HUYLFHVDQG&XOWXUH +HDOWK &RPPXQLFDWLRQ (GXFDWLRQ &ORWKLQJDQG)RRWZHDU 7UDQVSRUW 3HUFHQWDJHSRLQWV 1RWH 7RWDOPD\QRWDGGXSGXHWRURXQGLQJ 6RXUFH'HSDUWPHQWRI6WDWLVWLFV0DOD\VLD Prices in the food and non-alcoholic beverage group rose by 4.6% (Q4 2015: 4.5%) and contributed 1.47 percentage points to the total CPI increase for the quarter. This was attributed to the price increase in the food at home category (4.5%), mainly fish and seafood (7.6%), vegetables (6.9%), food products not elsewhere classified (6.6%) as well as fruits (6.2%). Prices of most food subgroups were higher following warm and dry weather conditions since late February. Prices in the housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels group rose by 3% (Q4 2015: 2.5%), following higher actual rental paid by tenants (3%) and electricity (1.1%) subgroups. Meanwhile, prices of alcoholic beverage and tobacco increased by 22.6% (Q4 2015: 19.1%). However, prices in the transport group remained low, registering the fifth quarterly decline
11 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 at 1.5% (Q4 2015: -5.7%) due to weak crude oil prices. This resulted in lower pump prices which dragged down the prices of fuels and lubricants for personal and transport equipment subgroup by 5.9% (Q4 2015: -11.2%). &21680(5$1'352'8&(535,&(,1',&(6 &RQVXPHU3ULFH,QGH[&3, $QQXDOFKDQJH $QQXDOFKDQJH 3URGXFHU3ULFH,QGH[33, $QQXDOFKDQJH $QQXDOFKDQJH (Q4 2015: 3.2%). The total labour force was sustained at 14.6 million persons (Q4 2015: 14.6 million). Meanwhile, total employment was at 14.1 million with the services sector accounting for the largest share at 8.3 million or 59%, mainly in the wholesale and retail trade subsector. This was followed by manufacturing (2.3 million) and agriculture (1.6 million) sectors. - $ - 2 - $ - 2 - $ - 2 - $ - 2 ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ &3, 7UDQVSRUW )RRGQRQDOFRKROLF EHYHUDJHV ULJKW VFDOH - $ - 2 - $ - 2 - $ - 2 - $ - 2 ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ 33, /RFDO3URGXFWLRQ 6RXUFH'HSDUWPHQWRI6WDWLVWLFV0DOD\VLD The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures changes in the price of commodities charged by domestic producers. It covers five sectors, namely agriculture, forestry and fishing; mining; manufacturing; electricity and gas; and water supply. The PPI decreased further in the first quarter of 2016 by 4.4% (Q4 2015: -2.4%) as commodity prices remained low. Total job vacancies registered via JobsMalaysia declined to 156,753 (Q4 2015: 221,353). On a sectoral basis, the manufacturing sector registered 46,286 vacancies or 29.5% of total job vacancies, followed by agriculture (43,692; 27.9%) and services (43,219; 27.6%). By occupational category, elementary occupations such as domestic cleaners and helpers recorded the highest vacancies at 97,886 or 62.4% of total job vacancies, followed by plant and machine operators (19,434; 12.4%) and service and sales workers (15,856; 10.1%). The number of active job seekers decreased to 253,793 as at end-March 2016 (end-December 2015: 276,851). /$%2850$5.(7 9DFDQFLHVDQG$FWLYHUHJLVWUDWLRQV The decline in the PPI for local production was on account of price decrease in the mining (-25.8%); electricity and gas (-4.5%); and manufacturing (-2.9%) sectors. Similarly, the PPI for local production by stage of processing indicated that prices of intermediate materials, supplies and components declined by 6.6% (Q4 2015: -3.6%), followed by crude materials for further processing by 5.2% (Q4 2015: -27.4%). However, producer prices for processing of finished goods increased by 1% (Q4 2015: 0.9%). Employment Favourable labour market The labour market remained favourable in the first quarter of 2016, although the unemployment rate edged up to 3.4% QR - $ ¶ - 2 - $ ¶ - 2 - 9DFDQFLHV $ ¶ - 2 - $ ¶ - 2 ¶ $FWLYHUHJLVWUDWLRQV $OVRLQFOXGHVWKRVHZKRDUHDOUHDG\HPSOR\HG 6RXUFH0LQLVWU\RI+XPDQ5HVRXUFHV0DOD\VLD From January to December 2015, a total of 38,499 employees were retrenched as a result of closure of businesses and downsizing of workforce. The highest retrenchment was in financial and insurance/takaful activities which accounted for 45.8% of total retrenchments due to restructuring exercise by several banks, followed by manufacturing (23.9%) and mining and quarrying (5.9%).
12 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 Monetary and Financial Developments Slower growth in money supply Money supply recorded a marginal growth in the first quarter of 2016. M1 or narrow money declined slightly by 1.7% to RM354.2 billion as at end-March 2016 (end-December 2015: 4.1%; RM360.5 billion). Meanwhile, M3 or broad money continued to register growth, albeit at a slower pace of 0.9% to RM1,604.4 billion as at end-March 2016 (endDecember 2015: 2.7%; RM1,595.3 billion) reflecting the moderation in the extension of credit to the private sector by the banking system. On 1 February 2016, the Statutory Reserve Requirement (SRR) was reduced by 50 basis points from 4% to 3.5%. 021(7$5<$**5(*$7(6 $QQXDOFKDQJH 0DU -XQ 6HSW 'HF 0DU ¶ 0 -XQ 6HSW 'HF 0DU ¶ -XQ 6HSW 'HF 0DU ¶ -XQ 6HSW 'HF 0DU ¶ ¶ 0 6RXUFH%DQN1HJDUD0DOD\VLD Interest rates remain supportive The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) was unchanged at 3.25% during the quarter and remained supportive of economic activity (end-December 2015: 3.25%). The Base Rate (BR) increased slightly to 3.89% as at end-March 2016 (endDecember 2015: 3.86%). Consequently, the weighted average lending rate (ALR) of commercial banks increased four basis points to 4.61% as at end-March 2016 from 4.57% as at end-December 2015. However, the savings deposit rate fell to 1.03% as at end-March 2016 (endDecember 2015: 1.04%). Meanwhile, the interest rates on 1-month to 12-month fixed deposits remained within the same range of between 3.08% and 3.31% as at end-March 2016. ,17(5(675$7(62)&200(5&,$/%$1.6 (QG'HF (QG0DU %DVHOHQGLQJ %DVHUDWH :HLJKWHGDYHUDJHOHQGLQJ 6DYLQJVGHSRVLW PRQWK PRQWK PRQWK PRQWK PRQWK )L[HGGHSRVLW 6RXUFH%DQN1HJDUD0DOD\VLD Slower private sector financing The domestic financial system remained supportive of economic activity, despite the increased volatility in international financial markets. The overall gross financing of the private sector raised through the banking system and the capital market moderated to RM286.6 billion in the first quarter of 2016 (Q4 2015: RM331.4 billion). During the quarter, new issuances of private debt securities (PDS), excluding Cagamas as well as equity issuances were significantly lower, at RM17.9 billion and RM6.7 billion, respectively (Q4 2015: RM40.6 billion; RM7.5 billion), due to subdued market sentiment. Furthermore, loans disbursed by the banking institutions decreased during the same period. *526635,9$7(6(&725),1$1&,1*7+528*+7+(%$1.,1*6<67(0 $1'&$3,7$/0$5.(7 50ELOOLRQ 50ELOOLRQ 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 4 4 ¶ /RDQVGLVEXUVHG 6RXUFH%DQN1HJDUD0DOD\VLD 4 4 4 4 ¶ 4 *URVV3'6LVVXHG 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 ¶ (TXLW\
13 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 Loan indicators of the banking system were mixed. Loan applications rose by 5.1% to RM187.7 billion (Q4 2015: 2.6%; RM215.6 billion) driven by the business and household sectors. However, loan approvals recorded a double-digit decline of 18.4% to RM76.7 billion (Q4 2015: -5.8%; RM100.2 billion). Loan disbursements also declined by 2% to RM261.9 billion (Q4 2015: 1.5%; RM283.3 billion). Loans for businesses, which accounted for the bulk of total loans disbursed, were mainly channelled to the manufacturing (14.2%) as well as the wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and restaurants (13.3%) sectors. The household sector accounted for a significant share of total loans disbursed by the banking system at 19.2% or RM50.4 billion. /2$1$33529$/6$1'',6%856(0(176%<6(/(&7('6(&7256 )LUVW4XDUWHU 3ULPDU\$JULFXOWXUH 0DQXIDFWXULQJ LQFOXGLQJDJUREDVHG $SSURYDOV :KROHVDOHDQGUHWDLOWUDGH DFFRPPRGDWLRQUHVWDXUDQWV 'LVEXUVHPHQWV &RQVWUXFWLRQ 5HDOHVWDWH 7UDQVSRUWVWRUDJH DQGFRPPXQLFDWLRQ +RXVHKROGVHFWRU 2WKHUV 6KDUH 6RXUFH%DQN1HJDUD0DOD\VLD BANKING SYSTEM: LOANS OUTSTANDING AND GROWTH RM billion 1,500 Annual change (%) 15 1,449.5 1,300 13 1,100 11 900 9 700 7 6.4% 500 Mar Jun Sept Dec Mar ‘12 Jun Sept Dec Mar ‘13 Loans outstanding Resilient banking system The banking sector continued to remain strong and well-capitalised. As at endMarch 2016, the common equity tier 1 capital ratio, tier 1 capital ratio and the total capital ratio recorded 13%, 13.9% and 16.5%, respectively, all above the minimum regulatory levels (end-December 2015: 12.8%; 13.8%; 16.1%). Pre-tax profit of the banking system continued to register an increase of RM7.7 billion for the first quarter of 2016 (Q4 2015: RM7.2 billion) following improved revenue from treasury related activities and lower operating expenses. As at endMarch 2016, the net impaired loans ratio stood at 1.2% of net total loans (end-December 2015: 1.2%), reflecting the overall quality of the loan portfolio. The ringgit continues to strengthen )LQDQFHLQVXUDQFH DQGEXVLQHVVVHUYLFHV accounted for the major share of loans outstanding in the banking system at 57.1% or RM828.1 billion (end-December 2015: 56.8%; RM820.9 billion). Jun Sept Dec Mar ‘14 Jun Sept Dec Mar ‘15 ‘16 5 Loan growth Source: Bank Negara Malaysia. As at end-March 2016, total loans outstanding in the banking system continued to grow by 6.4% to RM1,449.5 billion (end-December 2015: 7.9%; RM1,445.1 billion). The household sector In the first quarter of 2016, the ringgit recorded a stronger performance against the US dollar as well as against other major and regional currencies. The ringgit was lifted by BNM’s decision to raise liquidity in the banking system by lowering the SRR to 3.5% from 4% in February, which led to renewed buying interest in the stock and bond markets. Investors also reacted positively towards the recalibrated 2016 Budget in January. Furthermore, investors’ sentiment on the ringgit was also positive as the Fed delayed an interest rate hike which led to increased investment into regional financial markets. The recovery in global crude oil prices at the end of January strengthened the ringgit as prices continued on an upward trend to above USD40 per barrel on 17 March 2016. Consequently, the ringgit continued to appreciate to RM3.9590 against US dollar on 30 March 2016. During the
14 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 quarter, the ringgit strengthened by 9.4% against the US dollar and in the range of 2.2% to 13.1% against other major and regional currencies. 3(5)250$1&(2)5,1**,7$*$,1676(/(&7('&855(1&,(6 (QG'HFHPEHU³(QG0DU 86GROODU (QG0DU³0D\ 3RXQGVWHUOLQJ (RM million) 2015 -DSDQHVH\HQ FUNDS RAISED IN THE CAPITAL MARKET (XUR Q1 7KDLEDKW ,QGRQHVLDQUXSLDK 3KLOLSSLQHSHVR &KLQHVHUHQPLQEL .RUHDQZRQ Q1 30,136 (9,996) 13,497 18,676 Government securities (net) Malaysia Government Securities Government Investment Issues Less: Redemptions 9,183 13,479 9,500 13,797 26,636 12,491 14,145 - (10,496) 14,510 6,529 31,535 13,497 10,852 10,883 8,238 18,676 12,116 13,560 7,000 Government Housing Sukuk (net) 4,000 3,500 500 - - BY PRIVATE SECTOR 8,300 9,116 7,442 37,936 6,712 Shares/Warrants Debt Securities (net) 4,685 3,615 3,281 5,835 2,471 4,971 7,481 30,455 1,088 5,624 11,440 7,824 20,509 14,674 13,141 8,170 40,550 10,095 18,362 12,738 21,483 39,252 (2,555) 51,433 25,388 Q4 $XVWUDOLDQGROODU 2016 Q3 13,183 Q2 BY PUBLIC SECTOR 6LQJDSRUHGROODU of a 3-year and 15-year MGS as well as a 20-year MGII. After adjusting for redemptions worth RM7 billion, net funds raised by the public sector were also higher at RM18.7 billion (Q4 2015: RM8.2 billion; RM13.5 billion). FKDQJH Private Debt Securities1 Less: Redemptions FKDQJH 6RXUFH%DQN1HJDUD0DOD\VLD TOTAL 1 [From end-March 2016 to 13 May 2016, however, the ringgit fell by 2.6% against the US dollar as well as other major and regional currencies within the range of 0.6% to 5.8%, except against the Australian dollar by 2.0%. The ringgit eased despite the unchanged US interest rates as well as Moody’s positive outlook on Malaysia in April 2016. However, the rebound in the US dollar, lack of market-moving catalysts and hawkish Fed’s statement on the possibility of interest rate hike in June 2016 continued to weigh on the ringgit. The ringgit breached the 4.00 level against the greenback on 5 May 2016] Moderate fund-raising activity Fund-raising activity moderated in the first quarter of 2016, with the overall net funds raised in the capital market amounting to RM25.4 billion (Q4 2015: RM51.4 billion). Gross funds raised by the public sector increased by 18.1% on a quarterly basis to RM25.7 billion (Q4 2015: 0.9%; RM21.7 billion). Funds were raised mainly through several new issuances of Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) and Malaysian Government Investment Issues (MGII), coupled with re-openings including Cagamas. Note: Total may not add up due to rounding. Source: Bank Negara Malaysia. However, gross funds raised by the private sector declined by more than half to RM19.5 billion compared with the previous quarter (Q4 2015: RM48 billion). After adjusting for redemptions, net funds raised by the private sector amounted to RM6.7 billion (Q4 2015: RM37.9 billion). Meanwhile, the finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector remained the leader in new PDS issuances, accounting for the largest share at 57.7%, followed by the government and other services (13.8%) as well as the electricity, gas, and water (10.9%) sectors. The new PDS issuances in the finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector were higher, partly due to the attractive cost of financing in the debt market, vis-a-vis deposits. The yield of Government securities and corporate bonds declined across the entire maturity spectrum and rating bands as the strengthening ringgit and reduced uncertainties after the long-awaited Fed rate hike improved investors’ confidence. Likewise, the increased inflow of foreign funds during the period was supported by the stimulus measures by major markets, including Europe, China and Japan coupled with
15 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 the recovery in crude oil prices towards the end of the quarter. For the quarter as a whole, yields on 3-year, 5-year and 10-year MGS declined by 6 basis points, 4 basis points and 38 basis points, respectively. Similarly, corporate bond yields recorded a decline during the same period. The 5-year AAA-rated, AA-rated and A-rated yields decreased by 12 basis points, 7 basis points and 8 basis points respectively to 4.25%, 4.67% and 6.89%. 0$/$<6,$1*29(510(176(&85,7,(60*6,1',&$7,9(<,(/'6 0DU -XQ 6HS 'HF 0DU -XQ 6HS 'HF 0DU -XQ 6HS 'HF 0DU -XQ 6HS 'HF 0DU ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ <HDU <HDU <HDU <HDU (QGSHULRG 6RXUFH)XOO\$XWRPDWHG6\VWHPIRU,VVXLQJ7HQGHULQJ)$67%DQN1HJDUD0DOD\VLD RM97.82 billion; RM1,695.17 billion). Total turnover, however, moderated to 112.55 billion units worth RM124.13 billion during the same period (Q4 2015: 138.51 billion units; RM133.28 billion). The local bourse commenced the quarter on a weaker note amid unfavourable external developments, including ongoing concerns over China’s moderating economic activities and plunging commodity prices. The market also turned cautious following geopolitical tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran as well as news on the terror attacks in Jakarta. However, the market rebounded and posted positive growth in March 2016 as investors took their cue from the Fed’s decision to defer raising interest rates as well as the plan to opt for two rather than four increases in 2016. The FBM KLCI also advanced during the quarter driven by a number of global central bank stimulus measures, including Europe, China and Japan coupled with the recovery in global crude oil prices and stronger ringgit. PRIVATE DEBT SECURITIES (PDS) 5-YEAR YIELDS 1 % 12 10.83 10 8 6.89 6 4.67 4.25 4 2 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar ‘12 ‘13 AAA ‘14 AA ‘15 A ‘16 BBB 1 End-period. Source: Fully Automated System for Issuing/Tendering (FAST), Bank Negara Malaysia. Stock market performance remains firm The FBM KLCI ended the first quarter of 2016 on a firm note, increasing by 1.5% quarter-on-quarter to close at 1,717.58 points (end-December 2015: 4.4%; 1,692.51 points). Likewise, market capitalisation expanded by 0.7% or RM12.27 billion to RM1,707.44 billion (end-December 2015: 6.1%; [ T h e F B M K L C I p o s t e d a y e a rto-date high on 15 April 2016 a t 1 , 7 2 7 . 9 9 p o i n t s a f t e r C h i n a ’s exports increased by the most in a year in March while declines in imports narrowed, signalling the w o r l d ’s s e c o n d b i g g e s t e c o n o m y is stabilising. However, the market edged lower towards end-April 2016 in tandem with most regional indices led by a slump in Japanese shares as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept bond-buying, its negative interest rate and exchange-traded fund purchases unchanged, in contrast with expectations of most economists who predicted further stimulus. The FBM KLCI closed lower on 13 May 2016 at 1,628.26 points, after a disappointing US jobs market re p o r t a n d w e a k e r- t h a n - e x p e c t e d China’s trade figure, raised investors’ c o n c e r n s o n t h e s t re n g t h o f t h e world’s biggest economies]
16 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 3(5)250$1&(2)6(/(&7(',1',&(6 (QG'HFHPEHU(QG0DU 6(77KDLODQG -&,,QGRQHVLD 3&2033KLOLSSLQHV .263,.RUHD tax, following lower crude oil prices that affected petroleum-related companies. However, individual income tax collection increased by 32.2% to RM10.6 billion (Q1 2015: -27.5%; RM8 billion). 'RZ-RQHV86 )%0./&,0DOD\VLD )76(8. )('(5$/*29(510(17),1$1&,$/326,7,2150ELOOLRQ 67,6LQJDSRUH 1DVGDT86 6(16(;,QGLD 91,1'(;9LHWQDP +6,+RQJ.RQJ 1LNNHL-DSDQ 6+&203&KLQD 6RXUFH%ORRPEHUJ 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5HYHQXH 2SHUDWLQJH[SHQGLWXUH &XUUHQWEDODQFH *URVVGHYHORSPHQWH[S /RDQUHFRYHULHV 1HWGHYHORSPHQWH[S FKDQJH 2YHUDOOEDODQFH WR*'3 Federal Government Finance Lower revenue collection Federal Government revenue declined by 5.3% to RM48.8 billion in the first quarter of 2016 (Q1 2015: 4.8%; RM51.5 billion). This was attributed to the sharp reduction in non-tax revenue despite higher tax revenue collection. Tax revenue registered a firm growth of 7.5% to RM39.8 billion (Q1 2015: 5%; RM37.1 billion), contributed by a 51.4% increase in indirect tax collection to RM14.3 billion (Q1 2015: 17.7%; RM9.5 billion). The improvement in indirect tax collection was primarily contributed by goods and services tax (GST) collection of RM10.2 billion compared to RM5.2 billion under the sales tax and service tax (SST) in the first quarter of 2015. In addition, receipts from import duty recorded an increase of 7.3% to RM0.6 billion (Q1 2015: 3%; RM0.6 billion) contributed mainly from metal products, Complete Built-Up (CBU) motorcars and motor vehicle spare parts. Meanwhile, excise duties decreased by 3.7% to RM2.6 billion (Q1 2015: -0.4%; RM2.8 billion) due to lower collection from local excise duty on passenger vehicles. Direct tax collection declined by 7.6% to RM25.5 billion (Q1 2015: 1.2%; RM27.6 billion) due to lower receipts from companies and petroleum income 0HPR,WHP 7RWDO)HG*RYW'HEW HQGRISHULRG WR*'3 3UHOLPLQDU\ )('(5$/*29(510(17),1$1&,$/326,7,2150ELOOLRQ 50ELOOLRQ 50ELOOLRQ 4 4 4 ¶ 4 5HYHQXH 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 4 4 ¶ 7RWDO([SHQGLWXUH 4 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 ¶ 2YHUDOO%DODQFH Proceeds from non-tax revenue declined significantly by 38.2% to RM9 billion (Q1 2015: 4.4%; RM14.5 billion). This was due to lower receipts from investment income which declined by 58.1% to RM3.2 billion (Q1 2015: 13.9%; RM7.6 billion), mainly from Petronas dividend and petroleum royalty. Higher expenditure Federal Government total expenditure rose by 5.4% to RM66.8 billion in the first quarter of 2016 (Q1 2015: 1.8%; RM63.4 billion). Operating expenditure, which accounted for 85.9% of total expenditure, grew by 3.5% to RM57.4 billion (Q1 2015: 87.4%; 0.4%; RM55.4 billion) mainly attributed by higher
17 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 spending on supplies and services, pensions and gratuities as well as debt service charges. Emoluments, the largest component of operating expenditure, contracted moderately by 2.8% to RM17.6 billion (Q1 2015: 5.1%; RM18.1 billion) mainly due to lower outlays on financial assistance for civil servants. Meanwhile, subsidy payments which recorded a sharp reduction in the first quarter of 2015, following the implementation of the managed float for fuel prices, are now stable with a growth rate of 0.8% in the same quarter of this year (Q1 2015: -20.6%). With the commencement of projects under the 11MP, development expenditure grew by 18.2% to RM9.5 billion (Q1 2015: 12.4%; RM8 billion). In terms of share of total development expenditure, the transport subsector recorded the largest spending at 26.4% followed by trade and industry (17.2%), and housing (11.2%) subsectors. Given the lower revenue coupled with higher expenditure, the Federal Government registered a higher deficit of RM17.7 billion in the first quarter of 2016 (Q1 2015: RM11.8 billion). )('(5$/*29(510(17'(%7 50ELOOLRQ 50ELOOLRQ 4 4 4 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 4 4 ¶ 4 4 ¶ 'RPHVWLF 4 ¶ ([WHUQDO External Position Moderate export performance Amid sluggish external demand, total trade grew marginally by 0.4% to RM346.4 billion (Q4 2015: 5.9%; RM392.8 billion). During the first quarter of 2016, gross exports rose by 1% to RM185.2 billion (Q4 2015: 8.1%; RM211.7 billion) supported by higher receipts from agricultural (6.5%) and manufactured (6.4%) goods. Gross imports contracted by 0.4% to RM161.2 billion (Q4 2015: 3.5%; RM181.1 billion) largely due to lower import of intermediate (-3.1%) and capital (-12.9%) goods. Consequently, the trade surplus was lower at RM23.9 billion (Q4 2015: RM30.6 billion). Reliance on domestic funding (;7(51$/75$'( Federal Government gross borrowing for the first three months of 2016 amounted to RM25.5 billion, comprising mainly MGS (RM12 billion) and MGII (RM13.5 billion). Thus, as at end-March 2016, Federal Government debt stood at RM626.9 billion or 51% of GDP (end2015: RM630.5 billion; 54.5%). The lower level of debt reflected the transfer of liabilities following the establishment of a statutory body known as the Public Sector Home Financing Board. Domestic debt accounted for 96.8% of total debt or RM607 billion. Debt service charges increased to RM6.9 billion or 12% of operating expenditure (Q1 2015: RM5.8 billion; 10.5%). 50ELOOLRQ 4 4 4 4 $JULFXOWXUH *URZWK 0LQLQJ *URZWK *URVVLPSRUWV *URZWK &DSLWDOJRRGV *URZWK ,QWHUPHGLDWHJRRGV *URZWK &RQVXPSWLRQJRRGV *URZWK 7RWDO7UDGH *URZWK *URVVH[SRUWV *URZWK 0DQXIDFWXUHG *URZWK 7UDGH%DODQFH *URZWK 4 4 4 4 4 6RXUFH'HSDUWPHQWRI6WDWLVWLFVDQG0DOD\VLD([WHUQDO7UDGH'HYHORSPHQW&RUSRUDWLRQ0$75$'(0DOD\VLD Manufactured exports expanded by 6.4% to RM151.9 billion (Q4 2015: 12.5%; RM170.6 billion) supported by
18 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 both E&E and non-E&E products, which registered gains of 3.6% and 8.7%, respectively (Q4 2015: 9.6%; 14.8%). Growth in exports of the E&E subsector was underpinned by steady demand for telecommunication equipment, and electrical switchers. Exports of E&E were higher, particularly to the US, Singapore, Germany and Thailand. Meanwhile, t he ex p an s ion in exports o f no n - E& E subsector was supported by higher demand for chemicals and chemical products (6.2%); manufactures of metal (42.8%); machinery, equipment and parts (23%); and optical and scientific equipment (15.7%). In contrast, receipts from petroleum products continued to decline by 12.2% due to lower demand, particularly from Singapore (-34.5%), Indonesia (-24.4%) and Korea (-35.6%). EXPORTS OF MANUFACTURED GOODS (% annual change) 2014 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 7.1 12.5 13.8 1.9 1.8 Electronics & electrical products (E&E) 8.1 Non-E&E 6.4 Petroleum products 2.9 Chemicals and chemical products 8.4 Machinery, equipment and parts 10.8 Optical and scientific equipment 13.6 Manufactures of metal -6.1 Rubber products -5.0 Processed food 16.3 Wood products 3.8 Textiles, appearals and footwear 13.0 Manufactures of plastics 11.6 Iron and steel products 28.2 Transport equipment 10.0 Jewellery -11.9 Non-metallic mineral products 6.8 Beverages and tobacco 5.2 Paper and pulp products 1.8 Other manufactures 19.8 12.5 12.4 14.5 8.1 15.0 9.9 24.4 -9.5 16.1 6.4 19.6 15.8 15.5 21.4 14.1 7.0 7.3 4.9 19.5 13.0 14.4 32.5 7.4 19.3 25.1 0.2 -7.7 18.2 7.6 24.4 15.9 42.0 4.5 -26.4 5.7 11.3 7.7 22.5 2.6 1.3 -3.8 5.8 7.4 18.2 -29.5 0.6 19.8 0.1 0.3 6.9 26.8 9.8 -23.8 10.8 2.1 -1.2 18.9 5.5 -0.9 -19.1 12.1 2.7 2.4 -8.7 -2.9 11.4 1.3 10.2 8.5 28.0 5.1 -2.6 4.0 1.1 -3.8 18.7 Total manufacturing exports 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 6.5 0.2 2.3 10.8 12.5 6.4 8.5 5.0 -22.5 7.2 20.5 10.4 31.9 12.1 8.8 5.0 10.2 8.5 -9.9 13.4 13.7 5.1 10.2 14.0 16.1 6.8 -4.7 -33.8 3.3 14.1 11.8 -14.4 2.1 6.4 -1.2 6.2 3.9 27.6 -3.1 -11.3 1.8 15.7 5.8 13.2 3.1 1.6 -23.5 5.2 12.6 -3.1 33.8 17.0 2.2 -0.3 2.6 2.7 -4.0 10.4 14.9 10.7 -0.9 2.6 5.2 14.2 8.1 -18.9 12.4 23.2 4.1 54.3 10.9 8.5 10.0 16.0 9.1 -33.6 17.5 39.2 3.1 11.3 14.0 17.2 9.6 14.8 -12.2 7.8 32.2 30.1 58.0 18.2 17.7 11.3 10.2 17.6 -26.4 30.3 17.1 4.8 15.3 34.8 27.0 3.6 8.7 -12.2 6.2 23.0 15.7 42.8 6.8 15.9 9.4 18.5 7.7 -48.8 18.8 10.5 0.6 10.1 9.4 14.6 Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia. Export receipts of agricultural goods recorded a strong growth of 6.5% to RM15.3 billion (Q4 2015: 3.8%; RM17.6 billion) due to higher receipts from palm oil. Export receipts of palm oil increased by 7.8% to RM10 billion (Q4 2015: 0.8%; RM12 billion) contributed by higher volume (12.5%), although the average unit value (AUV) fell by 5.2%. Meanwhile, export receipts of rubber contracted by 18.7% to RM0.8 billion (Q4 2015: -2.2%; RM0.9 billion) amid lower volume (-15.4%) and prices (-3.9%). Export receipts from mining goods continued to contract by 32.5% to RM16.9 billion (Q4 2015: -14.5%; RM22.5 billion) mainly due to weaker external demand and persistently lower oil and gas prices.Despite a slight increase in export volume by 2.6%, receipts from crude petroleum declined by 22.7% largely on account of lower AUV (-24.7%). The export volume and AUV of LNG fell by 40.8% and 3%, respectively. During the quarter, shipments of LNG to Japan dropped by 40.8%, while Korea (-36.3%) and Taiwan (-73.1%). Gross imports contracted marginally by 0.4% to RM161.2 billion (Q4 2015: 3.5%; RM181.1 billion) attributed to a slowdown in intermediate and capital goods. The contraction in intermediate goods (-3.1%) was largely on account of lower imports of fuel and lubricants (-46.4%) and processed industrial supplies (-7.1%), notably refined copper and nickel. Imports of capital goods declined by 12.9%, weighed down by transport equipment (-42.3%), particularly aircraft. Meanwhile, imports of consumption goods were strong, rising by 24.6%, boosted by the festive season during the quarter. Growth was contributed by food and beverage (22.1%) as well as consumer durables (28.6%). Smaller current account surplus During the first quarter of 2016, the current account surplus narrowed to RM5 billion or 1.8% (Q4 2015: RM10.5 billion; 3.6%) of Gross National Income (GNI) amid external uncertainties. This was attributed to a smaller surplus in the goods and services account, despite the improved deficit in the income accounts. The surplus in the goods and services account narrowed to RM16.7 billion (Q4 2015: RM24.7 billion), reflecting weak global demand and declining commodity prices. The services account recorded a larger deficit of RM6.8 billion (Q4 2015: -RM6.4 billion) mainly due to higher net payments for construction, intellectual property as well as information and telecommunication services. In line with sluggish trade activities, the deficit in
19 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 the transport account was smaller at RM5.6 billion. Meanwhile, the travel account remained in surplus at RM6.7 billion following sustained tourist receipts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uring the quarter, the deficit in the primary income account narrowed to RM6.7 billion (Q4 2015: -RM9.1 billion) following lower repatriation of investment income by foreign companies in Malaysia, particularly in the manufacturing as well as finance and insurance industry. Similarly, investment income accrued to Malaysian companies investing abroad declined to RM4.9 billion, particularly in the oil and gas sector. In addition, the secondary income account, which largely comprises remittances by foreign workers in Malaysia, recorded a slightly lower deficit of RM4.9 billion (Q4 2015: -RM5 billion). The financial account recorded a higher net inflow of RM5.8 billion (Q4 2015: +RM3.9 billion) mainly on account of higher acquisition of portfolio instruments by non-residents and higher inflow of direct investment. Despite the uncertainties in global financial markets, portfolio investment recorded a net inflow of RM13.1 billion (Q4 2015: +RM15.9 billion) mainly due to acquisition of equity and debt instruments by foreign investors. On the assets side, direct investment registered a substantial outflow of RM11.2 billion (Q4 2015: -RM2.9 billion). T h i s wa s d u e t o h i g h e r i n j e c t i o n s o f equity capital and retained earnings by subsidiaries of Malaysian companies abroad particularly in the mining and services sector. On the liabilities side, direct investment registered a higher inflow of RM14.9 billion (Q4 2015: +RM8.6 billion) largely due to higher injection of equity capital, which was mainly channelled into the utilities as well as oil and gas subsectors. Net outflows in other investment was lower at RM11.5 billion (Q4 2015: -RM17.6 billion) due to higher placement of deposits by foreign institutions in the domestic banking system and lower extension of trade credit by Malaysian exporters. Hence, the overall balance of payments recorded a higher deficit of RM27.6 billion (Q4 2015: -RM6 billion) due to the lower surplus in the current account despite higher net inflows in the financial account. Ample international reserves Malaysia’s international reserves remained adequate at RM381.6 billion (equivalent to USD97 billion) as at end-March 2016 (end-December 2015: RM409.1 billion; USD95.3 billion). The reserves level has already taken into account the quarterly adjustment for foreign exchange revaluation changes. The reserves position is sufficient to f i n a n c e 7.9 m o n t h s o f r e t a i n e d i m p o r t s and is 1.2 times short-term external debt. ,17(51$7,21$/5(6(59(6 86'ELOOLRQ PRQWKWLPHV - $ - 2 - $ 5HVHUYHV 6RXUFH%DQN1HJDUD0DOD\VLD 2 - $ 2 - $ 0RQWKVRIUHWDLQHGLPSRUWV 5HVHUYHVVKRUWWHUPH[WHUQDOGHEW 2 ULJKWVFDOH
20 Quarterly Update on the Malaysian Economy – 1st Quarter 2016 [The international reserves amounted to RM381.4 billion (equivalent to USD97 billion) as at 29 April 2016. The reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.9 months of retained imports and is 1.2 times short-term exter nal debt] driven by declining commodity prices, particularly oil; economic transition in China; prolonged recession in the emerging market economies including Brazil, Russia and Middle East countries; rising geopolitical risks; and the UK’s potential exit from the European Union. GDP AND THE LEADING & COINCIDENT INDICES (% annual change) Outlook Gradual pick up in global growth Global growth is projected to pick up gradually with a moderate recovery in advanced economies and uneven growth momentum in emerging market and developing economies. Moderate growth is projected to continue in the US supported by accommodative financial conditions and an improving housing market. This is expected to be offset by slower exports and manufacturing activities due to strengthening dollar as well as a decline in energy investment. Meanwhile, recovery in the euro area is envisaged to continue as a result of accommodative monetary policies, despite weakening external demand. Japan’s growth will remain subdued owing to a scheduled increase in consumption tax. China is expected to experience further slowdown in the industrial sector and real estate, while the services sector is forecast to accelerate as the economy continues to rebalance from investment to consumption. India is expected to experience a strong growth and rising real income driven by robust domestic demand and lower oil prices. Downside risks are anticipated to continue % 15 % 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 GDP Coincident index Leading index -15 right scale Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia. The Malaysian economy is expected to remain on its growth trajectory in the second quarter of 2016. This is reflected by the Leading Index which declined marginally by 0.6% in the final quarter of 2015. On the demand side, private consumption is expected to record higher growth mainly driven by spending from the household sector, amid steady income growth from stable labour market conditions. Private investment is expected to remain firm supported by new projects and capacity expansion in the manufacturing and services sectors as well as capital spending on infrastructure projects. On the supply side, growth will be supported by continued expansion in the services and construction sectors as well as some recovery in the manufacturing sector.
Key Data http ://www.treasury.gov.my
23 KEY DATA AREA (Square kilometres) 330,396 20141 20151 20162 30.6 31.0 31.4 POPULATION (million) RM million % growth 1,012,506 6.0 RM million % growth RM million % growth DOMESTIC PRODUCTION Gross Domestic Product (constant 2010 prices) USD million 309,364 1,062,805 5.0 272,131 1,106,100 4.0 - 4.5 257,235 Agriculture 93,052 2.1 94,143 1.2 93,576 -0.3 Mining and quarrying 90,841 3.5 95,134 4.7 98,211 3.5 232,790 6.2 244,205 4.9 254,215 4.1 43,115 11.7 46,634 8.2 50,398 7.9 541,070 6.6 568,892 5.1 594,025 4.4 1,106,466 8.6 1,157,139 4.6 1,228,952 - manufacturing Construction Services Gross Domestic Product (current prices) USD million 338,073 296,285 285,805 NATIONAL INCOME AND EXPENDITURE Gross National Income (current prices) Consumption expenditure: 1,069,842 USD million 326,883 Public 147,385 Private Gross fixed capital formation: Public Private Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Gross National Income (constant 2010 prices) USD million Gross National Savings (current prices) Per Capita Income (current prices) RM USD 8.7 1,125,128 5.5 151,989 5.2 1,190,971 3.1 156,251 288,089 5.9 276,972 2.7 579,985 9.9 626,239 8.0 674,508 7.7 103,538 -3.2 104,126 0.6 107,064 2.8 183,879 13.0 198,822 8.1 212,674 7.0 816,483 6.0 820,459 0.5 851,520 3.7 713,863 4.5 731,895 2.5 771,264 5.2 972,593 6.1 1,038,527 6.8 1,077,671 3.8 325,029 8.5 325,005 -0.01 342,6034 5.4 34,964 7.3 36,299 3.8 37,930 4.5 297,169 265,914 250,623 10,683 9,294 8,821 99 52 355 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FINANCE3 Oil Price (USD per barrel) 305 Revenue 220,626 3.4 219,089 -0.7 217,964 216,284 Operating expenditure 219,589 3.9 216,998 -1.2 211,224 210,724 6,740 5,560 Current account surplus 1,037 Development expenditure (net) Overall deficit/surplus 45,215 44,215 -37,194 -38,475 -38,655 -3.4 -3.2 -3.1 -3.1 37,557 36,931 - - -356 727 - - 213 -463 - - -5.5 -37,414 % to GDP Domestic borrowing (net) Foreign borrowing (net) Change in assets Federal Government debt 38,451 2,091 2 Domestic debt Offshore borrowing Memorandum item: Non-residents holdings of ringgit-denominated Government debt securities RM million % GDP 39,285 2.2 RM million % GDP RM million % GDP 582,828 52.7 630,540 54.5 - - 566,052 51.2 609,063 52.6 - - 16,776 1.5 21,477 1.9 - - 151,377 13.7 177,114 15.3 - -
24 KEY DATA 20141 20151 20162 RM million RM million RM million 48 ,554 34,658 19,136 14,835 8,874 4,450 Goods 113,327 109,550 99,504 Services -10,706 -20,985 -19,249 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (NET) Balance on current account USD million Primary income -36,624 -32,011 -37,981 Secondary income -17,443 -21,896 -23,138 -79,610 -51,995 - -5,451 21,087 - -36,507 3,750 - Balance on capital and financial accounts Net errors and omissions Overall balance RM million % growth % share RM million % growth % share RM million % growth % share EXTERNAL TRADE Gross exports 765,417 USD million 6.3 Manufactured Gross imports 1.4 770,426 199,705 203,887 587,175 7.1 76.7 625,475 6.5 80.2 619,423 2.0 80.4 69,175 0.5 9.0 67,278 -2.7 8.6 67,027 5.0 8.7 104,051 6.2 13.6 82,667 -20.6 10.6 75,502 -4.5 9.8 682,937 5.3 685,391 0.4 697,230 3.3 Agriculture Mining 1.9 779,947 233,868 USD million 208,850 Intermediate goods 175,961 184,516 408,181 7.6 59.8 398,807 -2.3 58.2 415,549 3.5 59.6 Capital goods 95,882 -2.4 14.0 95,908 0.02 14.0 99,076 5.6 14.2 Consumption goods 50,309 5.7 7.4 62,456 24.1 9.1 57,173 -1.5 8.2 Total trade 1,448,354 1,465,337 1,467,656 82,480 94,556 73,197 26.9 27.4 26.8 European Union 9.9 10.1 10.2 USA 8.1 8.8 8.6 Trade balance Trading partners (% share to total trade) 6 ASEAN Japan 9.5 8.7 10.2 China 14.3 15.8 14.2 Others 31.3 29.2 30.0 405.3 409.1 381.4 116.0 95.3 97.0 Months of retained imports 8.3 8.4 7.9 Short-term external debt (times) 1.1 1.2 1.2 Gross international reserves7 (RM billion) USD billion PRICES6 Index % growth Index % growth Index % growth Consumer Price Index (2010=100) 110.5 3.2 112.8 2.1 114.3 3.4 Producer Price Index (2010=100) 110.4 1.5 102.2 -7.4 99.6 -4.4 Thousands % growth Thousands % growth Thousands % growth LABOUR 8 Labour force Unemployed (Unemployment rate) 14,263.6 4.6 14,518.0 1.8 14,596.8 0.4 411.1 (2.9) 450.3 (3.1) 501.0 (3.4)
25 KEY DATA 2015 2016 End-March RM million MONEY AND BANKING2 Money supply End-March % annual change RM million % annual change M1 360,586.3 9.5 354,150.0 -1.7 M2 1,575,139.0 6.5 1,597,410.8 0.9 M3 1,582,522.6 6.0 1,604,414.1 0.9 1,683,611.2 9.0 1,668,742.3 -0.9 1,361,907.2 9.2 1,449,480.1 6.4 Banking system Deposits Loans Loan-deposits ratio (end of period) 86.6 87.7 3.73 3.85 3-month 3.13 3.13 12-month 3.31 3.31 Savings deposit 1.08 1.03 Base lending rate (BLR) 6.79 6.80 Base rate (BR) 3.90 3.89 2.99 2.39 Malaysian Government securities: 1-year 3.21 2.71 5-year 3.59 3.47 End-April 2015 End-April 2016 9 Interest rates (average rates at end of period, %) 3-month interbank Commercial banks Fixed deposits: Treasury bills (3-month) Movement of ringgit10 (end-period) RM per SDR; % annual change 4.9881 1.6 5.5189 -9.6 RM per USD; % annual change 3.5705 -8.5 3.9045 -8.6 RM per Euro; % annual change 3.9659 13.7 4.4449 -10.8 RM per 100 Yen; % annual change 3.0016 6.3 3.6377 -17.5 Bursa Malaysia (end-period) FBM KLCI 1,818.27 1,672.72 Market capitalisation (RM billion) 1,738.53 1,672.73 2014 2015 SOCIAL INDICATORS Life expectancy at birth1 : Male (years) 72.5 72.5 Female (years) 77.2 77.4 Infant mortality rate (per 1000 live births) 6.2 6.5 1 95.7 n.a Water coverage11 (% of population) 95.3 n.a Rural electricity coverage12 (% of housing unit) 97.6 98.2 27.44 25.70 Literacy rate 1 Tourist arrivals 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1 13 (million arrivals) Department of Statistics, Malaysia. Bank Negara Malaysia Ministry of Finance, Malaysia. Economic Report 2015/2016. 2016 Budget Recalibration. 2016: For the period of January to March 2016. 2016: As at 29 April 2016. 2016: For the first quarter of 2016. Excludes transactions by financial institutions. Annual rate of appreciation (+) or depreciation (-). Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water, and National Water Services Commission. Ministry of Rural and Regional Development. Tourism Malaysia. Note : Urban electricty coverage has reached 100%.
Key Economic Indicators
32 ,876 37,468 Sales of motorcycles (units) Production of motorcycles (units) 1,687.84 Market capitalisation (RM billion) Vacancies (no.) Retrenchment (no.) 69,988 1,800 -7.0 Producer Price Index (Local) Labour Market 1.0 Consumer Price Index Prices (2010=100) (Annual change,%) 1,781.26 FBM KLCI Bursa Malaysia (end-period) 4,385 56,452 Production of vehicles (units) Imports of consumption goods (RM million) 44,697 Jan Sales of new passenger cars (units) Indicator / Month CONSUMPTION INDICATORS 52,741 1,376 -7.8 0.1 1,733.14 1,821.21 3,902 29,390 31,611 48,526 44,961 Feb 91,743 2,259 -8.9 0.9 1,737.52 1,830.78 4,382 39,593 39,361 59,933 59,480 Mar 129,840 1,216 -8.8 1.8 1,738.53 1,818.27 4,857 34,454 29,699 62,173 40,902 Apr 101,097 2,175 -9.4 2.1 1,694.84 1,747.52 5,411 31,751 31,849 56,866 45,874 May 116,753 3,635 -9.2 2.5 1,659.02 1,706.64 5,820 35,582 31,870 53,018 50,695 5,273 29,205 29,982 41,826 52,636 Jul 98,380 1,991 -8.9 3.3 1,680.90 1,723.14 2015 Jun 103,341 2,536 -8.5 3.1 1,555.89 1,612.74 4,795 29,070 28,312 49,858 47,302 Aug 103,520 3,094 -7.0 2.6 1,597.35 1,621.04 5,691 24,526 28,658 46,839 45,245 Sep 77,845 2,673 -4.8 2.5 1,653.86 1,665.71 5,816 31,620 32,318 56,495 49,063 Oct 78,065 9,986 -5.3 2.6 1,668.89 1,672.16 5,827 28,534 27,819 51,485 49,348 Nov 65,443 5,758 -3.4 2.7 1,694.78 1,692.51 6,298 31,025 31,047 46,693 61,132 Dec 72,569 - -4.4 3.5 1,660.62 1,667.80 5,838 33,834 36,248 47,279 40,000 Jan 42,168 - -4.8 4.2 1,650.14 1,654.75 4,601 31,455 30,633 37,153 34,126 5,342 39,180 39,343 45,802 43,247 Mar 42,016 - -3.9 2.6 1,707.44 1,717.58 2016 Feb - - - - 1,672.73 1,672.72 - - - - - Apr 29
Note : 1 Commercial bank rate. 2 Household sector = total loans by purpose to households. 3 Quarterly data. n.e.c - not elsewhere classified. Property Overhang (end period)3 Total (units) % Change (preceeding) Total (RM million) % Change (preceeding) Registration of new local companies (no.) Companies dissolved / struck off (no.) Loans Disbursed by Sectors (RM million) Primary agriculture Mining and quarrying Manufacturing (incl. agro-based) Services Construction Real Estate Household sector2 Other sector n.e.c. Banking System : Loans Approved by Sectors (RM million) Primary agriculture Mining and quarrying Manufacturing (incl. agro-based) Services Construction Real Estate Household sector2 Other sector n.e.c. Base lending rate (%)1 Money supply (% y-o-y) M1 M3 Total Capital Ratio (%) Net impaired loans ratio (%) Manufacturing projects MITI Approvals (RM milion) New investment Re-investment Imports (RM million) Capital goods Intermediate goods Sales of new commercial vehicles (units) Indicator / Month INVESTMENT INDICATORS 77,131 2,251 1,968 14,457 24,882 5,050 4,168 23,333 1,021 3,193 146 2,706 3,892 16,915 31,073 5,633 4,117 26,375 801 4,629 395 282 1,016 1,261 4,957 1,020 2,664 15,290 257 91,513 26,746 7.8 6.9 15.3 1.3 4.3 6.1 15.4 1.2 1,180 332 2,144 3,857 1,956 1,785 19,521 217 6.79 6.79 30,992 3,470 594 2,876 2,850 1,230 1,620 6,878 29,366 5,473 5,905 8,189 33,063 Feb Jan 14,807 3.7 6,348 18.4 4,958 1,107 3,865 1,179 19,075 29,960 6,673 4,989 28,702 4,334 98,778 2,455 158 2,417 7,161 1,704 2,617 19,321 428 36,262 10.2 7.9 15.2 1.2 6.79 37,791 36,470 1,321 9,538 34,467 7,996 Mar 4,812 566 2,470 794 16,428 26,075 5,145 3,529 25,217 3,050 82,708 331 36 1,940 5,478 2,557 3,023 19,121 236 32,721 8.1 6.5 15.1 1.2 6.79 1,648 1,114 534 6,992 31,853 4,285 Apr 3,624 427 3,779 1,478 16,541 26,618 4,546 4,664 23,447 1,753 82,826 869 52 2,115 5,569 2,401 2,896 17,026 374 31,302 8.7 5.7 15.1 1.2 6.79 6,743 5,774 969 7,925 31,680 5,380 May 13,824 -6.6 5,404 -14.9 3,861 1,117 4,433 1,617 18,784 34,459 5,659 3,859 24,837 4,577 98,224 2,427 158 2,513 9,098 2,504 2,172 19,373 254 38,500 9.5 6.0 15.3 1.2 6.79 7,519 5,991 1,529 7,261 32,783 6,742 2015 Jun 4,409 635 3,138 544 16,959 27,930 5,677 4,206 24,780 3,419 86,653 907 117 2,008 7,164 2,144 2,759 17,557 200 32,856 4.6 3.8 15.5 1.2 6.79 3,873 2,614 1,260 7,504 36,386 6,010 Jul 3,528 819 3,130 2,320 17,700 27,005 4,408 5,906 23,288 4,381 88,138 603 122 1,710 6,096 1,891 3,275 17,449 270 31,418 8.8 4.6 14.8 1.2 6.79 2,865 2,523 342 7,383 32,490 6,150 Aug 14,943 8.1 6,995 29.4 3,264 287 3,878 777 19,702 31,732 5,675 4,641 24,122 8,286 98,813 396 67 2,795 5,908 2,058 3,239 17,477 285 32,225 8.3 5.2 14.8 1.2 6.79 932 210 722 8,927 32,718 5,861 Sep 3,687 1,360 3,111 1,348 17,048 29,212 5,387 4,591 25,423 3,518 89,638 705 106 2,028 8,211 2,102 3,142 18,859 87 35,241 7.2 4.0 15.4 1.2 6.79 1,710 1,108 602 9,138 37,001 6,691 Oct 3,231 100 2,924 750 15,805 28,877 5,002 3,775 24,705 3,460 85,299 492 233 2,165 8,334 1,527 1,948 16,598 70 31,366 6.5 3.7 15.5 1.2 6.79 2,160 906 1,254 8,138 31,852 6,744 Nov 16,531 10.6 8,387 19.9 3,346 107 4,167 3,759 20,514 37,651 6,274 4,903 26,667 4,461 108,397 498 2,149 1,861 7,535 2,620 3,005 15,765 161 33,595 4.1 2.7 16.1 1.2 6.79 3,131 1,705 1,426 8,066 35,357 8,269 Dec 3,532 1,304 3,880 541 17,807 31,244 5,633 4,249 24,930 3,489 91,773 748 45 1,202 7,328 1,602 1,631 14,067 44 26,668 4.9 2.2 16.5 1.2 6.79 - 7,108 34,744 4,591 Jan 3,073 1,353 3,224 724 15,351 26,150 4,727 3,939 21,433 2,441 77,989 252 6 1,278 5,665 1,744 1,556 11,649 101 22,250 4.4 2.7 16.3 1.2 6.80 - 6,902 27,511 3,750 2016 Feb Mar 17,800 7.7 8,757 4.4 4,408 1,803 4,050 514 15,705 33,523 6,518 4,433 24,552 2,907 92,203 679 161 1,628 6,170 1,352 1,884 15,260 647 27,781 -1.7 0.9 16.5 1.2 6.80 - 7,421 31,599 5,553 3,913 - - - - - - - - - - Apr 30
Jan Mar 1 ,495 2,240 60,511 512.93 10,931 124 16,369 1,798 1,659 18,387 92 157,497 5,446 7,149 4,376 2,152 869 141 148 505 7,530 91,576 1,976 2,242 7.1 9.9 697 58.13 55.79 6,356 334 3.8 16,719 8,034 6.3 4.4 Feb 1,122 2,265 74,469 499.80 10,192 107 14,294 1,785 1,470 2,374 15 126,568 4,490 5,915 3,891 1,934 731 118 108 472 6,678 73,771 1,764 1,949 5.2 9.2 693 60.73 57.93 6,423 308 1.9 16,220 8,627 4.0 -2.6 4.2 -0.6 3.0 16,822 9,058 3.9 676 61.59 58.90 5,810 314 2,072 4.0 5,383 7,009 4,077 2,022 853 132 132 478 7,006 84,422 1,884 150,367 13,520 84 16,093 1,623 1,709 1,693 2,160 35,850 500.33 11,329 131 Apr 3 2 1 Total slaughtered. Covers only Klang, Penang, Johor, Kuantan, Tanjung Pelepas, Bintulu and Kuching (TEUs: Twenty-foot equivalent units). Barrels per day. 4 Million standard cubic foot per day. Note: Agriculture Sector Palm Oil ('000 tonnes) 1,161 Price (RM/tonne) 2,294 Rubber (tonnes) 81,754 Price (sen/kg) 503.64 Cocoa, export (RM/tonne) 11,191 Fish landing ('000 tonnes) 106 Livestock1 : Poultry ('000) 16,374 Cattle 1,621 Goats 1,155 Construction Sector No. of houses approved 11,511 New advertising & sales permits (no.) 61 Transport Sector (no. of passengers ‘000) Highway (no. of vehicles ‘000) 140,684 Urban Rail Ampang Line 5,265 Kelana Jaya Line 6,978 KTM Komuter 4,109 KL Monorail 2,202 KLIA Ekspres & Transit 787 KTM Intercity Train 140 Electric Train Service 119 KTM Cargo Tonnage ('000) 550 Air (MAHB and Senai) 6,825 Cargo (tonnes) 81,691 Port - Container TEUs (‘000)2 1,979 Tourism Sector Tourist arrivals ('000) 2,292 Industrial Production Index (% y-o-y) 7.0 Mining Sector Production Index (% y-o-y) 8.3 Crude Oil & Condensates ('000 bpd)3 680 Tapis Blend (USD/barrel) 50.66 Dated Brent (USD/barrel) 48.42 Natural Gas (mmscfd)4 6,493 Tin (tonnes) 286 Electricity Sector Production Index (% y-o-y) 6.3 Maximum demand (MW) 15,772 Sales (GW hour) 8,492 Manufacturing Sector Production Index (% y-o-y) 6.6 Sales (% y-o-y) 2.8 Indicator / Month PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.2 -4.2 1.2 16,644 8,897 9.0 694 67.25 64.56 6,033 353 2,119 4.5 5,236 6,713 4,098 2,049 873 139 145 479 7,343 84,193 1,966 154,356 21,117 127 15,207 1,625 1,651 1,811 2,162 39,016 540.50 11,241 128 May 4.9 1.7 -2.3 16,767 9,157 4.0 620 64.96 62.35 6,317 344 1,894 4.3 5,371 7,095 4,197 2,070 821 142 151 410 7,217 82,604 1,973 151,902 14,525 87 16,118 2,153 1,699 1,764 2,265 53,772 580.52 11,662 127 13,765 64 15,590 3,927 2,853 1,816 2,190 54,728 540.57 12,214 129 Jul 4.2 -1.3 -1.2 16,460 9,034 14.0 599 58.76 55.87 6,361 362 2,216 6.1 5,411 7,011 4,131 2,106 808 187 174 487 7,423 83,225 1,974 153,509 2015 Jun 4.3 0.8 2.3 16,552 8,783 -3.4 591 49.45 46.99 5,408 346 2,183 2.3 5,558 7,229 4,260 2,200 887 192 237 559 7,387 81,682 2,065 156,687 3,978 27 16,180 3,574 2,604 2,051 1,970 57,366 522.98 12,591 140 Aug 5.6 5.4 2.6 16,614 9,072 4.4 652 49.08 47.23 5,960 360 2,084 5.1 5,029 6,510 4,208 2,003 832 189 174 531 6,862 78,355 2,022 149,593 6,828 69 16,596 3,929 3,096 1,959 1,986 68,260 532.08 14,021 128 Sep 6.2 6.5 4.3 16,424 8,737 -1.4 619 48.95 48.15 6,172 384 2,083 4.2 5,223 7,050 3,929 2,090 848 179 192 698 6,627 80,696 2,057 152,674 9,384 45 21,378 3,510 6,993 2,037 2,212 71,389 529.07 14,282 139 Oct 4.0 2.2 2.0 16,357 9,039 -4.1 672 45.09 44.37 6,045 371 2,005 1.8 5,229 6,787 4,014 2,062 843 204 223 521 7,088 78,319 2,000 147,307 13,044 36 21,572 3,714 2,175 1,654 2,121 50,940 500.15 14,348 121 Nov 4.1 -1.2 5.6 16,449 8,633 -1.5 661 38.72 37.72 6,277 397 2,583 2.7 5,169 6,698 4,401 2,178 816 252 256 516 8,329 87,632 2,071 154,577 9,846 85 22,144 3,731 2,087 1,399 2,151 73,571 491.88 14,186 110 Dec 4.0 -3.4 7.7 16,738 8,950 0.7 688 32.30 30.80 6,433 - 3.2 4,838 6,328 3,898 1,863 748 205 221 477 7,132 73,620 2,059 150,039 5,919 28 16,093 1,581 1,138 1,130 2,251 75,448 466.89 13,953 120 Jan 4.5 -1.4 10.5 - 1.1 674 35.29 33.20 6,346 - 3.9 4,394 5,837 3,431 1,674 710 222 247 474 7,162 57,397 1,958 - 3,346 27 15,619 1,498 1,286 1,043 2,431 54,564 454.03 13,694 101 2016 Feb 4.4 -0.6 7.7 - -2.5 41.04 39.07 - 2.8 5,222 6,940 3,840 1,927 791 257 264 532 7,547 61,979 2,090 - 15,874 65 15,894 1,441 1,514 1,220 2,531 57,678 516.98 12,691 134 Mar - - 43.73 42.25 - - - - - - 1,301 2,647 - Apr 31
8 ,957 Trade balance Trade balance 1.1 Short-term External debt (Times) WJD007677—PNMB., K.L. 8.0 110.6 USD billion Months of retained imports 386.5 RM billion Gross International Reserves (end of period) 30,279 2,293 Gross imports Total trade 16,286 13,993 Gross exports USD (million) 118,253 54,648 Gross imports Total trade 63,605 Jan Gross exports RM (million) Indicator / Month EXTERNAL SECTOR 1.1 7.9 110.5 386.0 26,061 1,166 12,448 13,614 101,782 4,555 48,614 53,169 Feb 1.1 8.0 105.1 389.7 32,035 2,003 15,016 17,019 125,111 7,822 58,645 66,466 Mac 1.2 8.1 105.8 392.4 29,164 1,758 13,703 15,461 113,898 6,865 53,517 60,382 Apr 1.2 8.1 106.4 394.3 29,547 1,412 14,068 15,479 115,395 5,513 54,941 60,454 May 1.2 8.2 105.5 398.1 30,864 2,043 14,410 16,453 120,538 7,978 56,280 64,258 Jun 2015 1.0 7.5 96.6 364.7 31,767 606 15,581 16,187 124,067 2,366 60,850 63,217 Jul 1.0 7.4 94.7 357.7 31,452 2,602 14,425 17,027 122,836 10,162 56,337 66,499 Aug 1.1 8.6 93.3 415.1 33,448 2,481 15,484 17,965 130,632 9,690 60,471 70,161 Sep 1.2 8.7 94.0 417.9 35,708 3,115 16,297 19,411 139,456 12,165 63,646 75,810 Oct 1.2 8.7 94.6 420.1 32,012 2,620 14,695 17,316 125,021 10,234 57,393 67,628 Nov 1.2 8.4 95.3 409.1 32,930 2,045 15,443 17,488 128,348 8,248 60,050 68,298 Dec 1.2 8.4 95.5 410.1 27,210 1,240 12,985 14,225 118,312 5,392 56,460 61,852 Jan 1.3 8.4 95.6 410.5 25,344 1,756 11,794 13,550 106,088 7,352 49,368 56,720 Feb 11,193 55,394 66,586 Mac 1.2 7.9 97.0 381.6 29,920 2,745 13,587 16,333 121,980 2016 1.2 7.9 97.0 381.4 - - - - - - - - Apr 32