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Indonesia: PRDA Booked a 2017 Net Profit of Rp151bn (+71% yoy) Forming 119% of and Street Consensus Respectively

IM Research
By IM Research
6 years ago
Indonesia: PRDA Booked a 2017 Net Profit of Rp151bn (+71% yoy) Forming 119% of and Street Consensus Respectively

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  1. 23 March 2018 Premier Insight News & Analysis Corporates 12,000 6,600 10,000 6,500 Rp bn JCI Index 8,000 6,400 6,000 6,300 4,000 6,200 2,000 6,100 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 9-Mar 13-Mar 8-Mar 12-Mar 7-Mar 6-Mar 5-Mar 2-Mar 1-Mar 28-Feb 27-Feb 26-Feb 23-Feb 22-Feb - 21-Feb 6,000 DMAS: Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ; Rp175; Buy) booked an earnings of Rp657bn (-13% yoy)in FY17, which is came below market expectation, cumulating 94/91% of our/consensus’ forecast. Revenue was down by 16.2% yoy with gross margin improved by 480bps to 61% due to decrease in COGS of 25% yoy. However, operating margin remains flat at 49.6% as opex increased by 45% yoy. Net margin improved by 160bps to 49.1% as DMAS booked higher interest income of Rp24bn (FY16: Rp10bn) and lower tax of Rp50bn (-40% yoy). In quarterly basis, DMAS booked strong earnings of Rp402bn in 4Q17 (201% qoq, 53% yoy), cumulating to 61% of FY17 earnings. (Company). 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 0% 9-Mar - (0) 8-Mar 5% 7-Mar 0 -5% % net buy/market turnover Foreign net buy (sell) Net buy (sell) in Rp bn Equity | Indonesia | Research Daily JCI Index 6,700 Comment: The result was lower than our expectation, cumulating to 94% of our FY17 forecast due to lower than expected Other income, which came from estate management (-66% yoy). Maintain Buy on DMAS with TP of Rp270. FY17 FY16 YoY % from our FY17 % from Consensus' FY17 Net sales 1,336.4 1,593.8 -16.2% 99% 95% COGS (521.5) (697.9) -25.3% 814.9 895.9 -9.0% (153.7) (105.9) 45.1% 661.2 789.9 -16.3% Net interest inc (exp) 23.7 9.8 Other 22.5 (Rp bn) (0) -10% (0) -15% (0) -20% (0) -25% Gross profit Opex EBIT Key Indexes Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD JCI 6,254 - 0.9% 12.4% -1.6% LQ45 1,027 - 1.1% 10.8% -4.9% DJI 23,958 - 2.9% 16.0% -3.1% SET 1,799 - 0.2% 14.7% 2.6% HSI 31,071 - 1.1% 27.7% 3.9% NKY 4Q17 4Q16 qoq 842.7 261.2 222.6% (340.5) (110.2) 209.0% 502.2 151.0 232.5% (71.4) (28.6) 150.0% 430.8 122.5 251.8% 141.7% 3.6 2.3 58.1% 41.4 -45.8% (5.4) 21.1 -125.6% 100% 97% 99% 94% Pretax profit 707.3 841.2 -15.9% 429.0 145.8 194.3% Tax (50.2) (83.6) -40.0% (26.4) (12.2) 116.7% Net Profit 656.7 757.2 -13.3% 402.3 133.5 201.3% 94% 91% 21,592 1.0% 13.1% -8.2% Gross margin 61.0% 56.2% 59.6% 57.8% FTSE 6,953 - 1.2% -5.3% -9.6% Op. margin 49.5% 49.6% 51.1% 46.9% FSSTI 3,491 - 0.6% 11.7% 2.6% Net margin 49.1% 47.5% 47.7% 51.1% 27 - 3.6% 2.6% -6.5% EIDO Commodity price Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year (in USD) Oil/barrel (WTI) 64.2 -1.4% 35.6% 625.7 0.1% -13.4% Soy/bushel 9.9 0.0% 1.4% Rubber/kg 1.7 0.0% -43.7% Nickel/tonne 13,146 -2.0% 32.0% Tins/tonne 20,915 -0.7% 2.0% Copper/tonne 6,653 -1.6% 15.1% Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,329 -0.3% 6.7% 96.7 -0.5% 20.3% CPO/tonne Coal/tonne Corn/bushel Wheat/bushel (USd) 3.5 0.3% 2.9% 457.0 0.3% 8.6% INTP: Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ; Rp17,625; Hold) posted net profit amounted to Rp 1.8tn, down 51.9% yoy. This was partly resulted by lower revenue and margins compression in FY17. The earnings numbers came below ours and consensus with 84.4% and 91.2% achievement, respectively. Revenue recorded negative growth by 6.1% yoy to Rp14.4tn in FY17. On quarterly basis, the company bottom line was helped by lower tax rate in 4Q17 which stood at 9.2% (vs. 58.5% in 3Q17) which led net profit to surged by 67.9% qoq albeit revenue declined by 1.3% qoq. On the margin front, the company posted lower margins across the board with gross, operating and net margin stood at 34.7%, 13.4% and 12.9% in FY17 vs 41.2%, 23.5% and 25.2% in FY16. (Bisnis Indonesia). Source : Bloomberg Revenue Gross profit 2017 2016 yoy 4Q17 3Q17 qoq vs.ours vs.cons 14,431 15,362 -6.1% 3,919 3,969 -1.3% 97.8% 98% 5,008 6,331 -20.9% 1,383 1,383 0.0% 84.4% 91.2% Opex 3,080 2,714 13.5% 909 818 11.2% Operating profit 1,928 3,618 -46.7% 474 565 -16.2% Interest (14) (12) 19.2% (5) (4) 24.0% Others-net 375 540 -30.6% 31 90 -65.9% Net income 1,860 3,870 -51.9% 453 270 67.9% Gross margin 34.7% 41.2% 35.3% 34.9% Operating margin 13.4% 23.5% 12.1% 14.2% Net margin 12.9% 25.2% 11.6% 6.8% Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
  2. PremierInsight PRDA : Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ; Rp3,450 ; Buy) booked a 2017 net profit of Rp151bn (+71% yoy) forming 119% of and street consensus, respectively. However, PRDA registered below than expected net sales of Rp1,466bn (+8% yoy) forming 97% market consensus and gross profit of Rp853bn (+8% yoy) building 96% market consensus. All profitability margins reported lower: GPM at 62.5% (2016: 62.8%) OPM at 24% (2016: 25.5%) NPM at 19% (2016: 20.4%). (Company). Comment: The net profit formed 124% of our forecast but the upbeat in net profit was due to net interest income of Rp55bn that offset interest expense of Rp8bn which we think unsustainable given the interest income came from unused IPO proceed. On the top-line, we saw a higher growth in COGS (+8.4% yoy) than its revenue (+7.9% yoy) dragging down all profitability margins. We will review our forecast and assumption for FY18 accordingly. 4Q17 3Q17 4Q16 FY17 FY16 Change Forecast (IDRbn) (IDR b) (IDR b) (IDR b) (q-q%) Change (y-y%) (IDR b) (IDR b) (y-y %) (%) (%) Net Sales 424 369 413 15 3 1,466 1,359 7.9 96.1 97.5 8.4 95.3 96.7 110.1 116.4 124.6 119.5 COGS (173) (154) (165) 13 5 (612) (565) Gross profit 251 216 248 17 1 854 793 7.6 Op. cost (190) (179) (177) 6 7 (713) (676) 5.4 Op.profit 66 37 81 77 (19) 150 130 15.6 Interest expense 12 12 (3) (0) (495) 47 (9) (599.5) (27.9) Others 4 1 10 399 (55) 9 12 Pre-tax profit 77 49 78 58 (0) 197 120 63.7 (26) (9) (19) 189 35 (46) (32) 43.2 52 40 59 29 (12) 151 88 71.1 Tax Net profit Gross margin (% of gross sales) 60.1 61.7 61.5 62.5 62.8 Op. margin (%) 21.3 11.6 21.4 24.0 25.5 Pre tax margin (%) 20.4 11.5 21.5 23.9 25.6 Net margin (%) 16.2 9.2 17.2 19.0 20.4 Consensus Markets & Sector Construction sector: S&P started to highlights debt level of SOE contractors which is assessed to increase rapidly in the last 6 years due to infrastructure development. Debt-to-Ebitda increased from 1 to 4.5 in the period of 2011-2017. S&P forecasted that Debt-to-Ebitda with increased to 5.5x in 2018 & 2019. In addition, SOE contractors’ debt has reached Rp156tn in FY17 (+57% yoy). (Bisnis Indonesia, Investor Daily). Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report 2
  3. Head Office PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS Wisma GKBI 7 /F Suite 718 Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28 Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia p +62.21.5793.1168 f +62.21.5793.1167 INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
  4. 23 March 2018 Premier Insight News & Analysis Corporates 12,000 6,600 10,000 6,500 Rp bn JCI Index 8,000 6,400 6,000 6,300 4,000 6,200 2,000 6,100 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 9-Mar 13-Mar 8-Mar 12-Mar 7-Mar 6-Mar 5-Mar 2-Mar 1-Mar 28-Feb 27-Feb 26-Feb 23-Feb 22-Feb - 21-Feb 6,000 DMAS: Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ; Rp175; Buy) booked an earnings of Rp657bn (-13% yoy)in FY17, which is came below market expectation, cumulating 94/91% of our/consensus’ forecast. Revenue was down by 16.2% yoy with gross margin improved by 480bps to 61% due to decrease in COGS of 25% yoy. However, operating margin remains flat at 49.6% as opex increased by 45% yoy. Net margin improved by 160bps to 49.1% as DMAS booked higher interest income of Rp24bn (FY16: Rp10bn) and lower tax of Rp50bn (-40% yoy). In quarterly basis, DMAS booked strong earnings of Rp402bn in 4Q17 (201% qoq, 53% yoy), cumulating to 61% of FY17 earnings. (Company). 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 0% 9-Mar - (0) 8-Mar 5% 7-Mar 0 -5% % net buy/market turnover Foreign net buy (sell) Net buy (sell) in Rp bn Equity | Indonesia | Research Daily JCI Index 6,700 Comment: The result was lower than our expectation, cumulating to 94% of our FY17 forecast due to lower than expected Other income, which came from estate management (-66% yoy). Maintain Buy on DMAS with TP of Rp270. FY17 FY16 YoY % from our FY17 % from Consensus' FY17 Net sales 1,336.4 1,593.8 -16.2% 99% 95% COGS (521.5) (697.9) -25.3% 814.9 895.9 -9.0% (153.7) (105.9) 45.1% 661.2 789.9 -16.3% Net interest inc (exp) 23.7 9.8 Other 22.5 (Rp bn) (0) -10% (0) -15% (0) -20% (0) -25% Gross profit Opex EBIT Key Indexes Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD JCI 6,254 - 0.9% 12.4% -1.6% LQ45 1,027 - 1.1% 10.8% -4.9% DJI 23,958 - 2.9% 16.0% -3.1% SET 1,799 - 0.2% 14.7% 2.6% HSI 31,071 - 1.1% 27.7% 3.9% NKY 4Q17 4Q16 qoq 842.7 261.2 222.6% (340.5) (110.2) 209.0% 502.2 151.0 232.5% (71.4) (28.6) 150.0% 430.8 122.5 251.8% 141.7% 3.6 2.3 58.1% 41.4 -45.8% (5.4) 21.1 -125.6% 100% 97% 99% 94% Pretax profit 707.3 841.2 -15.9% 429.0 145.8 194.3% Tax (50.2) (83.6) -40.0% (26.4) (12.2) 116.7% Net Profit 656.7 757.2 -13.3% 402.3 133.5 201.3% 94% 91% 21,592 1.0% 13.1% -8.2% Gross margin 61.0% 56.2% 59.6% 57.8% FTSE 6,953 - 1.2% -5.3% -9.6% Op. margin 49.5% 49.6% 51.1% 46.9% FSSTI 3,491 - 0.6% 11.7% 2.6% Net margin 49.1% 47.5% 47.7% 51.1% 27 - 3.6% 2.6% -6.5% EIDO Commodity price Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year (in USD) Oil/barrel (WTI) 64.2 -1.4% 35.6% 625.7 0.1% -13.4% Soy/bushel 9.9 0.0% 1.4% Rubber/kg 1.7 0.0% -43.7% Nickel/tonne 13,146 -2.0% 32.0% Tins/tonne 20,915 -0.7% 2.0% Copper/tonne 6,653 -1.6% 15.1% Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,329 -0.3% 6.7% 96.7 -0.5% 20.3% CPO/tonne Coal/tonne Corn/bushel Wheat/bushel (USd) 3.5 0.3% 2.9% 457.0 0.3% 8.6% INTP: Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ; Rp17,625; Hold) posted net profit amounted to Rp 1.8tn, down 51.9% yoy. This was partly resulted by lower revenue and margins compression in FY17. The earnings numbers came below ours and consensus with 84.4% and 91.2% achievement, respectively. Revenue recorded negative growth by 6.1% yoy to Rp14.4tn in FY17. On quarterly basis, the company bottom line was helped by lower tax rate in 4Q17 which stood at 9.2% (vs. 58.5% in 3Q17) which led net profit to surged by 67.9% qoq albeit revenue declined by 1.3% qoq. On the margin front, the company posted lower margins across the board with gross, operating and net margin stood at 34.7%, 13.4% and 12.9% in FY17 vs 41.2%, 23.5% and 25.2% in FY16. (Bisnis Indonesia). Source : Bloomberg Revenue Gross profit 2017 2016 yoy 4Q17 3Q17 qoq vs.ours vs.cons 14,431 15,362 -6.1% 3,919 3,969 -1.3% 97.8% 98% 5,008 6,331 -20.9% 1,383 1,383 0.0% 84.4% 91.2% Opex 3,080 2,714 13.5% 909 818 11.2% Operating profit 1,928 3,618 -46.7% 474 565 -16.2% Interest (14) (12) 19.2% (5) (4) 24.0% Others-net 375 540 -30.6% 31 90 -65.9% Net income 1,860 3,870 -51.9% 453 270 67.9% Gross margin 34.7% 41.2% 35.3% 34.9% Operating margin 13.4% 23.5% 12.1% 14.2% Net margin 12.9% 25.2% 11.6% 6.8% Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
  5. PremierInsight PRDA : Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ; Rp3,450 ; Buy) booked a 2017 net profit of Rp151bn (+71% yoy) forming 119% of and street consensus, respectively. However, PRDA registered below than expected net sales of Rp1,466bn (+8% yoy) forming 97% market consensus and gross profit of Rp853bn (+8% yoy) building 96% market consensus. All profitability margins reported lower: GPM at 62.5% (2016: 62.8%) OPM at 24% (2016: 25.5%) NPM at 19% (2016: 20.4%). (Company). Comment: The net profit formed 124% of our forecast but the upbeat in net profit was due to net interest income of Rp55bn that offset interest expense of Rp8bn which we think unsustainable given the interest income came from unused IPO proceed. On the top-line, we saw a higher growth in COGS (+8.4% yoy) than its revenue (+7.9% yoy) dragging down all profitability margins. We will review our forecast and assumption for FY18 accordingly. 4Q17 3Q17 4Q16 FY17 FY16 Change Forecast (IDRbn) (IDR b) (IDR b) (IDR b) (q-q%) Change (y-y%) (IDR b) (IDR b) (y-y %) (%) (%) Net Sales 424 369 413 15 3 1,466 1,359 7.9 96.1 97.5 8.4 95.3 96.7 110.1 116.4 124.6 119.5 COGS (173) (154) (165) 13 5 (612) (565) Gross profit 251 216 248 17 1 854 793 7.6 Op. cost (190) (179) (177) 6 7 (713) (676) 5.4 Op.profit 66 37 81 77 (19) 150 130 15.6 Interest expense 12 12 (3) (0) (495) 47 (9) (599.5) (27.9) Others 4 1 10 399 (55) 9 12 Pre-tax profit 77 49 78 58 (0) 197 120 63.7 (26) (9) (19) 189 35 (46) (32) 43.2 52 40 59 29 (12) 151 88 71.1 Tax Net profit Gross margin (% of gross sales) 60.1 61.7 61.5 62.5 62.8 Op. margin (%) 21.3 11.6 21.4 24.0 25.5 Pre tax margin (%) 20.4 11.5 21.5 23.9 25.6 Net margin (%) 16.2 9.2 17.2 19.0 20.4 Consensus Markets & Sector Construction sector: S&P started to highlights debt level of SOE contractors which is assessed to increase rapidly in the last 6 years due to infrastructure development. Debt-to-Ebitda increased from 1 to 4.5 in the period of 2011-2017. S&P forecasted that Debt-to-Ebitda with increased to 5.5x in 2018 & 2019. In addition, SOE contractors’ debt has reached Rp156tn in FY17 (+57% yoy). (Bisnis Indonesia, Investor Daily). Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report 2
  6. Head Office PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS Wisma GKBI 7 /F Suite 718 Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28 Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia p +62.21.5793.1168 f +62.21.5793.1167 INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
  7. 23 March 2018 Premier Insight News & Analysis Corporates 12,000 6,600 10,000 6,500 Rp bn JCI Index 8,000 6,400 6,000 6,300 4,000 6,200 2,000 6,100 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 9-Mar 13-Mar 8-Mar 12-Mar 7-Mar 6-Mar 5-Mar 2-Mar 1-Mar 28-Feb 27-Feb 26-Feb 23-Feb 22-Feb - 21-Feb 6,000 DMAS: Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ; Rp175; Buy) booked an earnings of Rp657bn (-13% yoy)in FY17, which is came below market expectation, cumulating 94/91% of our/consensus’ forecast. Revenue was down by 16.2% yoy with gross margin improved by 480bps to 61% due to decrease in COGS of 25% yoy. However, operating margin remains flat at 49.6% as opex increased by 45% yoy. Net margin improved by 160bps to 49.1% as DMAS booked higher interest income of Rp24bn (FY16: Rp10bn) and lower tax of Rp50bn (-40% yoy). In quarterly basis, DMAS booked strong earnings of Rp402bn in 4Q17 (201% qoq, 53% yoy), cumulating to 61% of FY17 earnings. (Company). 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 0% 9-Mar - (0) 8-Mar 5% 7-Mar 0 -5% % net buy/market turnover Foreign net buy (sell) Net buy (sell) in Rp bn Equity | Indonesia | Research Daily JCI Index 6,700 Comment: The result was lower than our expectation, cumulating to 94% of our FY17 forecast due to lower than expected Other income, which came from estate management (-66% yoy). Maintain Buy on DMAS with TP of Rp270. FY17 FY16 YoY % from our FY17 % from Consensus' FY17 Net sales 1,336.4 1,593.8 -16.2% 99% 95% COGS (521.5) (697.9) -25.3% 814.9 895.9 -9.0% (153.7) (105.9) 45.1% 661.2 789.9 -16.3% Net interest inc (exp) 23.7 9.8 Other 22.5 (Rp bn) (0) -10% (0) -15% (0) -20% (0) -25% Gross profit Opex EBIT Key Indexes Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD JCI 6,254 - 0.9% 12.4% -1.6% LQ45 1,027 - 1.1% 10.8% -4.9% DJI 23,958 - 2.9% 16.0% -3.1% SET 1,799 - 0.2% 14.7% 2.6% HSI 31,071 - 1.1% 27.7% 3.9% NKY 4Q17 4Q16 qoq 842.7 261.2 222.6% (340.5) (110.2) 209.0% 502.2 151.0 232.5% (71.4) (28.6) 150.0% 430.8 122.5 251.8% 141.7% 3.6 2.3 58.1% 41.4 -45.8% (5.4) 21.1 -125.6% 100% 97% 99% 94% Pretax profit 707.3 841.2 -15.9% 429.0 145.8 194.3% Tax (50.2) (83.6) -40.0% (26.4) (12.2) 116.7% Net Profit 656.7 757.2 -13.3% 402.3 133.5 201.3% 94% 91% 21,592 1.0% 13.1% -8.2% Gross margin 61.0% 56.2% 59.6% 57.8% FTSE 6,953 - 1.2% -5.3% -9.6% Op. margin 49.5% 49.6% 51.1% 46.9% FSSTI 3,491 - 0.6% 11.7% 2.6% Net margin 49.1% 47.5% 47.7% 51.1% 27 - 3.6% 2.6% -6.5% EIDO Commodity price Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year (in USD) Oil/barrel (WTI) 64.2 -1.4% 35.6% 625.7 0.1% -13.4% Soy/bushel 9.9 0.0% 1.4% Rubber/kg 1.7 0.0% -43.7% Nickel/tonne 13,146 -2.0% 32.0% Tins/tonne 20,915 -0.7% 2.0% Copper/tonne 6,653 -1.6% 15.1% Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,329 -0.3% 6.7% 96.7 -0.5% 20.3% CPO/tonne Coal/tonne Corn/bushel Wheat/bushel (USd) 3.5 0.3% 2.9% 457.0 0.3% 8.6% INTP: Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ; Rp17,625; Hold) posted net profit amounted to Rp 1.8tn, down 51.9% yoy. This was partly resulted by lower revenue and margins compression in FY17. The earnings numbers came below ours and consensus with 84.4% and 91.2% achievement, respectively. Revenue recorded negative growth by 6.1% yoy to Rp14.4tn in FY17. On quarterly basis, the company bottom line was helped by lower tax rate in 4Q17 which stood at 9.2% (vs. 58.5% in 3Q17) which led net profit to surged by 67.9% qoq albeit revenue declined by 1.3% qoq. On the margin front, the company posted lower margins across the board with gross, operating and net margin stood at 34.7%, 13.4% and 12.9% in FY17 vs 41.2%, 23.5% and 25.2% in FY16. (Bisnis Indonesia). Source : Bloomberg Revenue Gross profit 2017 2016 yoy 4Q17 3Q17 qoq vs.ours vs.cons 14,431 15,362 -6.1% 3,919 3,969 -1.3% 97.8% 98% 5,008 6,331 -20.9% 1,383 1,383 0.0% 84.4% 91.2% Opex 3,080 2,714 13.5% 909 818 11.2% Operating profit 1,928 3,618 -46.7% 474 565 -16.2% Interest (14) (12) 19.2% (5) (4) 24.0% Others-net 375 540 -30.6% 31 90 -65.9% Net income 1,860 3,870 -51.9% 453 270 67.9% Gross margin 34.7% 41.2% 35.3% 34.9% Operating margin 13.4% 23.5% 12.1% 14.2% Net margin 12.9% 25.2% 11.6% 6.8% Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
  8. PremierInsight PRDA : Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ; Rp3,450 ; Buy) booked a 2017 net profit of Rp151bn (+71% yoy) forming 119% of and street consensus, respectively. However, PRDA registered below than expected net sales of Rp1,466bn (+8% yoy) forming 97% market consensus and gross profit of Rp853bn (+8% yoy) building 96% market consensus. All profitability margins reported lower: GPM at 62.5% (2016: 62.8%) OPM at 24% (2016: 25.5%) NPM at 19% (2016: 20.4%). (Company). Comment: The net profit formed 124% of our forecast but the upbeat in net profit was due to net interest income of Rp55bn that offset interest expense of Rp8bn which we think unsustainable given the interest income came from unused IPO proceed. On the top-line, we saw a higher growth in COGS (+8.4% yoy) than its revenue (+7.9% yoy) dragging down all profitability margins. We will review our forecast and assumption for FY18 accordingly. 4Q17 3Q17 4Q16 FY17 FY16 Change Forecast (IDRbn) (IDR b) (IDR b) (IDR b) (q-q%) Change (y-y%) (IDR b) (IDR b) (y-y %) (%) (%) Net Sales 424 369 413 15 3 1,466 1,359 7.9 96.1 97.5 8.4 95.3 96.7 110.1 116.4 124.6 119.5 COGS (173) (154) (165) 13 5 (612) (565) Gross profit 251 216 248 17 1 854 793 7.6 Op. cost (190) (179) (177) 6 7 (713) (676) 5.4 Op.profit 66 37 81 77 (19) 150 130 15.6 Interest expense 12 12 (3) (0) (495) 47 (9) (599.5) (27.9) Others 4 1 10 399 (55) 9 12 Pre-tax profit 77 49 78 58 (0) 197 120 63.7 (26) (9) (19) 189 35 (46) (32) 43.2 52 40 59 29 (12) 151 88 71.1 Tax Net profit Gross margin (% of gross sales) 60.1 61.7 61.5 62.5 62.8 Op. margin (%) 21.3 11.6 21.4 24.0 25.5 Pre tax margin (%) 20.4 11.5 21.5 23.9 25.6 Net margin (%) 16.2 9.2 17.2 19.0 20.4 Consensus Markets & Sector Construction sector: S&P started to highlights debt level of SOE contractors which is assessed to increase rapidly in the last 6 years due to infrastructure development. Debt-to-Ebitda increased from 1 to 4.5 in the period of 2011-2017. S&P forecasted that Debt-to-Ebitda with increased to 5.5x in 2018 & 2019. In addition, SOE contractors’ debt has reached Rp156tn in FY17 (+57% yoy). (Bisnis Indonesia, Investor Daily). Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report 2
  9. Head Office PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS Wisma GKBI 7 /F Suite 718 Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28 Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia p +62.21.5793.1168 f +62.21.5793.1167 INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
  10. 23 March 2018 Premier Insight News & Analysis Corporates 12,000 6,600 10,000 6,500 Rp bn JCI Index 8,000 6,400 6,000 6,300 4,000 6,200 2,000 6,100 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 9-Mar 13-Mar 8-Mar 12-Mar 7-Mar 6-Mar 5-Mar 2-Mar 1-Mar 28-Feb 27-Feb 26-Feb 23-Feb 22-Feb - 21-Feb 6,000 DMAS: Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ; Rp175; Buy) booked an earnings of Rp657bn (-13% yoy)in FY17, which is came below market expectation, cumulating 94/91% of our/consensus’ forecast. Revenue was down by 16.2% yoy with gross margin improved by 480bps to 61% due to decrease in COGS of 25% yoy. However, operating margin remains flat at 49.6% as opex increased by 45% yoy. Net margin improved by 160bps to 49.1% as DMAS booked higher interest income of Rp24bn (FY16: Rp10bn) and lower tax of Rp50bn (-40% yoy). In quarterly basis, DMAS booked strong earnings of Rp402bn in 4Q17 (201% qoq, 53% yoy), cumulating to 61% of FY17 earnings. (Company). 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 0% 9-Mar - (0) 8-Mar 5% 7-Mar 0 -5% % net buy/market turnover Foreign net buy (sell) Net buy (sell) in Rp bn Equity | Indonesia | Research Daily JCI Index 6,700 Comment: The result was lower than our expectation, cumulating to 94% of our FY17 forecast due to lower than expected Other income, which came from estate management (-66% yoy). Maintain Buy on DMAS with TP of Rp270. FY17 FY16 YoY % from our FY17 % from Consensus' FY17 Net sales 1,336.4 1,593.8 -16.2% 99% 95% COGS (521.5) (697.9) -25.3% 814.9 895.9 -9.0% (153.7) (105.9) 45.1% 661.2 789.9 -16.3% Net interest inc (exp) 23.7 9.8 Other 22.5 (Rp bn) (0) -10% (0) -15% (0) -20% (0) -25% Gross profit Opex EBIT Key Indexes Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD JCI 6,254 - 0.9% 12.4% -1.6% LQ45 1,027 - 1.1% 10.8% -4.9% DJI 23,958 - 2.9% 16.0% -3.1% SET 1,799 - 0.2% 14.7% 2.6% HSI 31,071 - 1.1% 27.7% 3.9% NKY 4Q17 4Q16 qoq 842.7 261.2 222.6% (340.5) (110.2) 209.0% 502.2 151.0 232.5% (71.4) (28.6) 150.0% 430.8 122.5 251.8% 141.7% 3.6 2.3 58.1% 41.4 -45.8% (5.4) 21.1 -125.6% 100% 97% 99% 94% Pretax profit 707.3 841.2 -15.9% 429.0 145.8 194.3% Tax (50.2) (83.6) -40.0% (26.4) (12.2) 116.7% Net Profit 656.7 757.2 -13.3% 402.3 133.5 201.3% 94% 91% 21,592 1.0% 13.1% -8.2% Gross margin 61.0% 56.2% 59.6% 57.8% FTSE 6,953 - 1.2% -5.3% -9.6% Op. margin 49.5% 49.6% 51.1% 46.9% FSSTI 3,491 - 0.6% 11.7% 2.6% Net margin 49.1% 47.5% 47.7% 51.1% 27 - 3.6% 2.6% -6.5% EIDO Commodity price Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year (in USD) Oil/barrel (WTI) 64.2 -1.4% 35.6% 625.7 0.1% -13.4% Soy/bushel 9.9 0.0% 1.4% Rubber/kg 1.7 0.0% -43.7% Nickel/tonne 13,146 -2.0% 32.0% Tins/tonne 20,915 -0.7% 2.0% Copper/tonne 6,653 -1.6% 15.1% Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,329 -0.3% 6.7% 96.7 -0.5% 20.3% CPO/tonne Coal/tonne Corn/bushel Wheat/bushel (USd) 3.5 0.3% 2.9% 457.0 0.3% 8.6% INTP: Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ; Rp17,625; Hold) posted net profit amounted to Rp 1.8tn, down 51.9% yoy. This was partly resulted by lower revenue and margins compression in FY17. The earnings numbers came below ours and consensus with 84.4% and 91.2% achievement, respectively. Revenue recorded negative growth by 6.1% yoy to Rp14.4tn in FY17. On quarterly basis, the company bottom line was helped by lower tax rate in 4Q17 which stood at 9.2% (vs. 58.5% in 3Q17) which led net profit to surged by 67.9% qoq albeit revenue declined by 1.3% qoq. On the margin front, the company posted lower margins across the board with gross, operating and net margin stood at 34.7%, 13.4% and 12.9% in FY17 vs 41.2%, 23.5% and 25.2% in FY16. (Bisnis Indonesia). Source : Bloomberg Revenue Gross profit 2017 2016 yoy 4Q17 3Q17 qoq vs.ours vs.cons 14,431 15,362 -6.1% 3,919 3,969 -1.3% 97.8% 98% 5,008 6,331 -20.9% 1,383 1,383 0.0% 84.4% 91.2% Opex 3,080 2,714 13.5% 909 818 11.2% Operating profit 1,928 3,618 -46.7% 474 565 -16.2% Interest (14) (12) 19.2% (5) (4) 24.0% Others-net 375 540 -30.6% 31 90 -65.9% Net income 1,860 3,870 -51.9% 453 270 67.9% Gross margin 34.7% 41.2% 35.3% 34.9% Operating margin 13.4% 23.5% 12.1% 14.2% Net margin 12.9% 25.2% 11.6% 6.8% Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
  11. PremierInsight PRDA : Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ; Rp3,450 ; Buy) booked a 2017 net profit of Rp151bn (+71% yoy) forming 119% of and street consensus, respectively. However, PRDA registered below than expected net sales of Rp1,466bn (+8% yoy) forming 97% market consensus and gross profit of Rp853bn (+8% yoy) building 96% market consensus. All profitability margins reported lower: GPM at 62.5% (2016: 62.8%) OPM at 24% (2016: 25.5%) NPM at 19% (2016: 20.4%). (Company). Comment: The net profit formed 124% of our forecast but the upbeat in net profit was due to net interest income of Rp55bn that offset interest expense of Rp8bn which we think unsustainable given the interest income came from unused IPO proceed. On the top-line, we saw a higher growth in COGS (+8.4% yoy) than its revenue (+7.9% yoy) dragging down all profitability margins. We will review our forecast and assumption for FY18 accordingly. 4Q17 3Q17 4Q16 FY17 FY16 Change Forecast (IDRbn) (IDR b) (IDR b) (IDR b) (q-q%) Change (y-y%) (IDR b) (IDR b) (y-y %) (%) (%) Net Sales 424 369 413 15 3 1,466 1,359 7.9 96.1 97.5 8.4 95.3 96.7 110.1 116.4 124.6 119.5 COGS (173) (154) (165) 13 5 (612) (565) Gross profit 251 216 248 17 1 854 793 7.6 Op. cost (190) (179) (177) 6 7 (713) (676) 5.4 Op.profit 66 37 81 77 (19) 150 130 15.6 Interest expense 12 12 (3) (0) (495) 47 (9) (599.5) (27.9) Others 4 1 10 399 (55) 9 12 Pre-tax profit 77 49 78 58 (0) 197 120 63.7 (26) (9) (19) 189 35 (46) (32) 43.2 52 40 59 29 (12) 151 88 71.1 Tax Net profit Gross margin (% of gross sales) 60.1 61.7 61.5 62.5 62.8 Op. margin (%) 21.3 11.6 21.4 24.0 25.5 Pre tax margin (%) 20.4 11.5 21.5 23.9 25.6 Net margin (%) 16.2 9.2 17.2 19.0 20.4 Consensus Markets & Sector Construction sector: S&P started to highlights debt level of SOE contractors which is assessed to increase rapidly in the last 6 years due to infrastructure development. Debt-to-Ebitda increased from 1 to 4.5 in the period of 2011-2017. S&P forecasted that Debt-to-Ebitda with increased to 5.5x in 2018 & 2019. In addition, SOE contractors’ debt has reached Rp156tn in FY17 (+57% yoy). (Bisnis Indonesia, Investor Daily). Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report 2
  12. Head Office PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS Wisma GKBI 7 /F Suite 718 Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28 Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia p +62.21.5793.1168 f +62.21.5793.1167 INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
  13. 23 March 2018 Premier Insight News & Analysis Corporates 12,000 6,600 10,000 6,500 Rp bn JCI Index 8,000 6,400 6,000 6,300 4,000 6,200 2,000 6,100 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 9-Mar 13-Mar 8-Mar 12-Mar 7-Mar 6-Mar 5-Mar 2-Mar 1-Mar 28-Feb 27-Feb 26-Feb 23-Feb 22-Feb - 21-Feb 6,000 DMAS: Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ; Rp175; Buy) booked an earnings of Rp657bn (-13% yoy)in FY17, which is came below market expectation, cumulating 94/91% of our/consensus’ forecast. Revenue was down by 16.2% yoy with gross margin improved by 480bps to 61% due to decrease in COGS of 25% yoy. However, operating margin remains flat at 49.6% as opex increased by 45% yoy. Net margin improved by 160bps to 49.1% as DMAS booked higher interest income of Rp24bn (FY16: Rp10bn) and lower tax of Rp50bn (-40% yoy). In quarterly basis, DMAS booked strong earnings of Rp402bn in 4Q17 (201% qoq, 53% yoy), cumulating to 61% of FY17 earnings. (Company). 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 0% 9-Mar - (0) 8-Mar 5% 7-Mar 0 -5% % net buy/market turnover Foreign net buy (sell) Net buy (sell) in Rp bn Equity | Indonesia | Research Daily JCI Index 6,700 Comment: The result was lower than our expectation, cumulating to 94% of our FY17 forecast due to lower than expected Other income, which came from estate management (-66% yoy). Maintain Buy on DMAS with TP of Rp270. FY17 FY16 YoY % from our FY17 % from Consensus' FY17 Net sales 1,336.4 1,593.8 -16.2% 99% 95% COGS (521.5) (697.9) -25.3% 814.9 895.9 -9.0% (153.7) (105.9) 45.1% 661.2 789.9 -16.3% Net interest inc (exp) 23.7 9.8 Other 22.5 (Rp bn) (0) -10% (0) -15% (0) -20% (0) -25% Gross profit Opex EBIT Key Indexes Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD JCI 6,254 - 0.9% 12.4% -1.6% LQ45 1,027 - 1.1% 10.8% -4.9% DJI 23,958 - 2.9% 16.0% -3.1% SET 1,799 - 0.2% 14.7% 2.6% HSI 31,071 - 1.1% 27.7% 3.9% NKY 4Q17 4Q16 qoq 842.7 261.2 222.6% (340.5) (110.2) 209.0% 502.2 151.0 232.5% (71.4) (28.6) 150.0% 430.8 122.5 251.8% 141.7% 3.6 2.3 58.1% 41.4 -45.8% (5.4) 21.1 -125.6% 100% 97% 99% 94% Pretax profit 707.3 841.2 -15.9% 429.0 145.8 194.3% Tax (50.2) (83.6) -40.0% (26.4) (12.2) 116.7% Net Profit 656.7 757.2 -13.3% 402.3 133.5 201.3% 94% 91% 21,592 1.0% 13.1% -8.2% Gross margin 61.0% 56.2% 59.6% 57.8% FTSE 6,953 - 1.2% -5.3% -9.6% Op. margin 49.5% 49.6% 51.1% 46.9% FSSTI 3,491 - 0.6% 11.7% 2.6% Net margin 49.1% 47.5% 47.7% 51.1% 27 - 3.6% 2.6% -6.5% EIDO Commodity price Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year (in USD) Oil/barrel (WTI) 64.2 -1.4% 35.6% 625.7 0.1% -13.4% Soy/bushel 9.9 0.0% 1.4% Rubber/kg 1.7 0.0% -43.7% Nickel/tonne 13,146 -2.0% 32.0% Tins/tonne 20,915 -0.7% 2.0% Copper/tonne 6,653 -1.6% 15.1% Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,329 -0.3% 6.7% 96.7 -0.5% 20.3% CPO/tonne Coal/tonne Corn/bushel Wheat/bushel (USd) 3.5 0.3% 2.9% 457.0 0.3% 8.6% INTP: Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ; Rp17,625; Hold) posted net profit amounted to Rp 1.8tn, down 51.9% yoy. This was partly resulted by lower revenue and margins compression in FY17. The earnings numbers came below ours and consensus with 84.4% and 91.2% achievement, respectively. Revenue recorded negative growth by 6.1% yoy to Rp14.4tn in FY17. On quarterly basis, the company bottom line was helped by lower tax rate in 4Q17 which stood at 9.2% (vs. 58.5% in 3Q17) which led net profit to surged by 67.9% qoq albeit revenue declined by 1.3% qoq. On the margin front, the company posted lower margins across the board with gross, operating and net margin stood at 34.7%, 13.4% and 12.9% in FY17 vs 41.2%, 23.5% and 25.2% in FY16. (Bisnis Indonesia). Source : Bloomberg Revenue Gross profit 2017 2016 yoy 4Q17 3Q17 qoq vs.ours vs.cons 14,431 15,362 -6.1% 3,919 3,969 -1.3% 97.8% 98% 5,008 6,331 -20.9% 1,383 1,383 0.0% 84.4% 91.2% Opex 3,080 2,714 13.5% 909 818 11.2% Operating profit 1,928 3,618 -46.7% 474 565 -16.2% Interest (14) (12) 19.2% (5) (4) 24.0% Others-net 375 540 -30.6% 31 90 -65.9% Net income 1,860 3,870 -51.9% 453 270 67.9% Gross margin 34.7% 41.2% 35.3% 34.9% Operating margin 13.4% 23.5% 12.1% 14.2% Net margin 12.9% 25.2% 11.6% 6.8% Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
  14. PremierInsight PRDA : Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ; Rp3,450 ; Buy) booked a 2017 net profit of Rp151bn (+71% yoy) forming 119% of and street consensus, respectively. However, PRDA registered below than expected net sales of Rp1,466bn (+8% yoy) forming 97% market consensus and gross profit of Rp853bn (+8% yoy) building 96% market consensus. All profitability margins reported lower: GPM at 62.5% (2016: 62.8%) OPM at 24% (2016: 25.5%) NPM at 19% (2016: 20.4%). (Company). Comment: The net profit formed 124% of our forecast but the upbeat in net profit was due to net interest income of Rp55bn that offset interest expense of Rp8bn which we think unsustainable given the interest income came from unused IPO proceed. On the top-line, we saw a higher growth in COGS (+8.4% yoy) than its revenue (+7.9% yoy) dragging down all profitability margins. We will review our forecast and assumption for FY18 accordingly. 4Q17 3Q17 4Q16 FY17 FY16 Change Forecast (IDRbn) (IDR b) (IDR b) (IDR b) (q-q%) Change (y-y%) (IDR b) (IDR b) (y-y %) (%) (%) Net Sales 424 369 413 15 3 1,466 1,359 7.9 96.1 97.5 8.4 95.3 96.7 110.1 116.4 124.6 119.5 COGS (173) (154) (165) 13 5 (612) (565) Gross profit 251 216 248 17 1 854 793 7.6 Op. cost (190) (179) (177) 6 7 (713) (676) 5.4 Op.profit 66 37 81 77 (19) 150 130 15.6 Interest expense 12 12 (3) (0) (495) 47 (9) (599.5) (27.9) Others 4 1 10 399 (55) 9 12 Pre-tax profit 77 49 78 58 (0) 197 120 63.7 (26) (9) (19) 189 35 (46) (32) 43.2 52 40 59 29 (12) 151 88 71.1 Tax Net profit Gross margin (% of gross sales) 60.1 61.7 61.5 62.5 62.8 Op. margin (%) 21.3 11.6 21.4 24.0 25.5 Pre tax margin (%) 20.4 11.5 21.5 23.9 25.6 Net margin (%) 16.2 9.2 17.2 19.0 20.4 Consensus Markets & Sector Construction sector: S&P started to highlights debt level of SOE contractors which is assessed to increase rapidly in the last 6 years due to infrastructure development. Debt-to-Ebitda increased from 1 to 4.5 in the period of 2011-2017. S&P forecasted that Debt-to-Ebitda with increased to 5.5x in 2018 & 2019. In addition, SOE contractors’ debt has reached Rp156tn in FY17 (+57% yoy). (Bisnis Indonesia, Investor Daily). Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report 2
  15. Head Office PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS Wisma GKBI 7 /F Suite 718 Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28 Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia p +62.21.5793.1168 f +62.21.5793.1167 INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
  16. 23 March 2018 Premier Insight News & Analysis Corporates 12,000 6,600 10,000 6,500 Rp bn JCI Index 8,000 6,400 6,000 6,300 4,000 6,200 2,000 6,100 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 9-Mar 13-Mar 8-Mar 12-Mar 7-Mar 6-Mar 5-Mar 2-Mar 1-Mar 28-Feb 27-Feb 26-Feb 23-Feb 22-Feb - 21-Feb 6,000 DMAS: Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ; Rp175; Buy) booked an earnings of Rp657bn (-13% yoy)in FY17, which is came below market expectation, cumulating 94/91% of our/consensus’ forecast. Revenue was down by 16.2% yoy with gross margin improved by 480bps to 61% due to decrease in COGS of 25% yoy. However, operating margin remains flat at 49.6% as opex increased by 45% yoy. Net margin improved by 160bps to 49.1% as DMAS booked higher interest income of Rp24bn (FY16: Rp10bn) and lower tax of Rp50bn (-40% yoy). In quarterly basis, DMAS booked strong earnings of Rp402bn in 4Q17 (201% qoq, 53% yoy), cumulating to 61% of FY17 earnings. (Company). 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 0% 9-Mar - (0) 8-Mar 5% 7-Mar 0 -5% % net buy/market turnover Foreign net buy (sell) Net buy (sell) in Rp bn Equity | Indonesia | Research Daily JCI Index 6,700 Comment: The result was lower than our expectation, cumulating to 94% of our FY17 forecast due to lower than expected Other income, which came from estate management (-66% yoy). Maintain Buy on DMAS with TP of Rp270. FY17 FY16 YoY % from our FY17 % from Consensus' FY17 Net sales 1,336.4 1,593.8 -16.2% 99% 95% COGS (521.5) (697.9) -25.3% 814.9 895.9 -9.0% (153.7) (105.9) 45.1% 661.2 789.9 -16.3% Net interest inc (exp) 23.7 9.8 Other 22.5 (Rp bn) (0) -10% (0) -15% (0) -20% (0) -25% Gross profit Opex EBIT Key Indexes Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD JCI 6,254 - 0.9% 12.4% -1.6% LQ45 1,027 - 1.1% 10.8% -4.9% DJI 23,958 - 2.9% 16.0% -3.1% SET 1,799 - 0.2% 14.7% 2.6% HSI 31,071 - 1.1% 27.7% 3.9% NKY 4Q17 4Q16 qoq 842.7 261.2 222.6% (340.5) (110.2) 209.0% 502.2 151.0 232.5% (71.4) (28.6) 150.0% 430.8 122.5 251.8% 141.7% 3.6 2.3 58.1% 41.4 -45.8% (5.4) 21.1 -125.6% 100% 97% 99% 94% Pretax profit 707.3 841.2 -15.9% 429.0 145.8 194.3% Tax (50.2) (83.6) -40.0% (26.4) (12.2) 116.7% Net Profit 656.7 757.2 -13.3% 402.3 133.5 201.3% 94% 91% 21,592 1.0% 13.1% -8.2% Gross margin 61.0% 56.2% 59.6% 57.8% FTSE 6,953 - 1.2% -5.3% -9.6% Op. margin 49.5% 49.6% 51.1% 46.9% FSSTI 3,491 - 0.6% 11.7% 2.6% Net margin 49.1% 47.5% 47.7% 51.1% 27 - 3.6% 2.6% -6.5% EIDO Commodity price Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year (in USD) Oil/barrel (WTI) 64.2 -1.4% 35.6% 625.7 0.1% -13.4% Soy/bushel 9.9 0.0% 1.4% Rubber/kg 1.7 0.0% -43.7% Nickel/tonne 13,146 -2.0% 32.0% Tins/tonne 20,915 -0.7% 2.0% Copper/tonne 6,653 -1.6% 15.1% Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,329 -0.3% 6.7% 96.7 -0.5% 20.3% CPO/tonne Coal/tonne Corn/bushel Wheat/bushel (USd) 3.5 0.3% 2.9% 457.0 0.3% 8.6% INTP: Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ; Rp17,625; Hold) posted net profit amounted to Rp 1.8tn, down 51.9% yoy. This was partly resulted by lower revenue and margins compression in FY17. The earnings numbers came below ours and consensus with 84.4% and 91.2% achievement, respectively. Revenue recorded negative growth by 6.1% yoy to Rp14.4tn in FY17. On quarterly basis, the company bottom line was helped by lower tax rate in 4Q17 which stood at 9.2% (vs. 58.5% in 3Q17) which led net profit to surged by 67.9% qoq albeit revenue declined by 1.3% qoq. On the margin front, the company posted lower margins across the board with gross, operating and net margin stood at 34.7%, 13.4% and 12.9% in FY17 vs 41.2%, 23.5% and 25.2% in FY16. (Bisnis Indonesia). Source : Bloomberg Revenue Gross profit 2017 2016 yoy 4Q17 3Q17 qoq vs.ours vs.cons 14,431 15,362 -6.1% 3,919 3,969 -1.3% 97.8% 98% 5,008 6,331 -20.9% 1,383 1,383 0.0% 84.4% 91.2% Opex 3,080 2,714 13.5% 909 818 11.2% Operating profit 1,928 3,618 -46.7% 474 565 -16.2% Interest (14) (12) 19.2% (5) (4) 24.0% Others-net 375 540 -30.6% 31 90 -65.9% Net income 1,860 3,870 -51.9% 453 270 67.9% Gross margin 34.7% 41.2% 35.3% 34.9% Operating margin 13.4% 23.5% 12.1% 14.2% Net margin 12.9% 25.2% 11.6% 6.8% Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
  17. PremierInsight PRDA : Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ; Rp3,450 ; Buy) booked a 2017 net profit of Rp151bn (+71% yoy) forming 119% of and street consensus, respectively. However, PRDA registered below than expected net sales of Rp1,466bn (+8% yoy) forming 97% market consensus and gross profit of Rp853bn (+8% yoy) building 96% market consensus. All profitability margins reported lower: GPM at 62.5% (2016: 62.8%) OPM at 24% (2016: 25.5%) NPM at 19% (2016: 20.4%). (Company). Comment: The net profit formed 124% of our forecast but the upbeat in net profit was due to net interest income of Rp55bn that offset interest expense of Rp8bn which we think unsustainable given the interest income came from unused IPO proceed. On the top-line, we saw a higher growth in COGS (+8.4% yoy) than its revenue (+7.9% yoy) dragging down all profitability margins. We will review our forecast and assumption for FY18 accordingly. 4Q17 3Q17 4Q16 FY17 FY16 Change Forecast (IDRbn) (IDR b) (IDR b) (IDR b) (q-q%) Change (y-y%) (IDR b) (IDR b) (y-y %) (%) (%) Net Sales 424 369 413 15 3 1,466 1,359 7.9 96.1 97.5 8.4 95.3 96.7 110.1 116.4 124.6 119.5 COGS (173) (154) (165) 13 5 (612) (565) Gross profit 251 216 248 17 1 854 793 7.6 Op. cost (190) (179) (177) 6 7 (713) (676) 5.4 Op.profit 66 37 81 77 (19) 150 130 15.6 Interest expense 12 12 (3) (0) (495) 47 (9) (599.5) (27.9) Others 4 1 10 399 (55) 9 12 Pre-tax profit 77 49 78 58 (0) 197 120 63.7 (26) (9) (19) 189 35 (46) (32) 43.2 52 40 59 29 (12) 151 88 71.1 Tax Net profit Gross margin (% of gross sales) 60.1 61.7 61.5 62.5 62.8 Op. margin (%) 21.3 11.6 21.4 24.0 25.5 Pre tax margin (%) 20.4 11.5 21.5 23.9 25.6 Net margin (%) 16.2 9.2 17.2 19.0 20.4 Consensus Markets & Sector Construction sector: S&P started to highlights debt level of SOE contractors which is assessed to increase rapidly in the last 6 years due to infrastructure development. Debt-to-Ebitda increased from 1 to 4.5 in the period of 2011-2017. S&P forecasted that Debt-to-Ebitda with increased to 5.5x in 2018 & 2019. In addition, SOE contractors’ debt has reached Rp156tn in FY17 (+57% yoy). (Bisnis Indonesia, Investor Daily). Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report 2
  18. Head Office PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS Wisma GKBI 7 /F Suite 718 Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28 Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia p +62.21.5793.1168 f +62.21.5793.1167 INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
  19. 23 March 2018 Premier Insight News & Analysis Corporates 12,000 6,600 10,000 6,500 Rp bn JCI Index 8,000 6,400 6,000 6,300 4,000 6,200 2,000 6,100 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 9-Mar 13-Mar 8-Mar 12-Mar 7-Mar 6-Mar 5-Mar 2-Mar 1-Mar 28-Feb 27-Feb 26-Feb 23-Feb 22-Feb - 21-Feb 6,000 DMAS: Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ; Rp175; Buy) booked an earnings of Rp657bn (-13% yoy)in FY17, which is came below market expectation, cumulating 94/91% of our/consensus’ forecast. Revenue was down by 16.2% yoy with gross margin improved by 480bps to 61% due to decrease in COGS of 25% yoy. However, operating margin remains flat at 49.6% as opex increased by 45% yoy. Net margin improved by 160bps to 49.1% as DMAS booked higher interest income of Rp24bn (FY16: Rp10bn) and lower tax of Rp50bn (-40% yoy). In quarterly basis, DMAS booked strong earnings of Rp402bn in 4Q17 (201% qoq, 53% yoy), cumulating to 61% of FY17 earnings. (Company). 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 0% 9-Mar - (0) 8-Mar 5% 7-Mar 0 -5% % net buy/market turnover Foreign net buy (sell) Net buy (sell) in Rp bn Equity | Indonesia | Research Daily JCI Index 6,700 Comment: The result was lower than our expectation, cumulating to 94% of our FY17 forecast due to lower than expected Other income, which came from estate management (-66% yoy). Maintain Buy on DMAS with TP of Rp270. FY17 FY16 YoY % from our FY17 % from Consensus' FY17 Net sales 1,336.4 1,593.8 -16.2% 99% 95% COGS (521.5) (697.9) -25.3% 814.9 895.9 -9.0% (153.7) (105.9) 45.1% 661.2 789.9 -16.3% Net interest inc (exp) 23.7 9.8 Other 22.5 (Rp bn) (0) -10% (0) -15% (0) -20% (0) -25% Gross profit Opex EBIT Key Indexes Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD JCI 6,254 - 0.9% 12.4% -1.6% LQ45 1,027 - 1.1% 10.8% -4.9% DJI 23,958 - 2.9% 16.0% -3.1% SET 1,799 - 0.2% 14.7% 2.6% HSI 31,071 - 1.1% 27.7% 3.9% NKY 4Q17 4Q16 qoq 842.7 261.2 222.6% (340.5) (110.2) 209.0% 502.2 151.0 232.5% (71.4) (28.6) 150.0% 430.8 122.5 251.8% 141.7% 3.6 2.3 58.1% 41.4 -45.8% (5.4) 21.1 -125.6% 100% 97% 99% 94% Pretax profit 707.3 841.2 -15.9% 429.0 145.8 194.3% Tax (50.2) (83.6) -40.0% (26.4) (12.2) 116.7% Net Profit 656.7 757.2 -13.3% 402.3 133.5 201.3% 94% 91% 21,592 1.0% 13.1% -8.2% Gross margin 61.0% 56.2% 59.6% 57.8% FTSE 6,953 - 1.2% -5.3% -9.6% Op. margin 49.5% 49.6% 51.1% 46.9% FSSTI 3,491 - 0.6% 11.7% 2.6% Net margin 49.1% 47.5% 47.7% 51.1% 27 - 3.6% 2.6% -6.5% EIDO Commodity price Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year (in USD) Oil/barrel (WTI) 64.2 -1.4% 35.6% 625.7 0.1% -13.4% Soy/bushel 9.9 0.0% 1.4% Rubber/kg 1.7 0.0% -43.7% Nickel/tonne 13,146 -2.0% 32.0% Tins/tonne 20,915 -0.7% 2.0% Copper/tonne 6,653 -1.6% 15.1% Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,329 -0.3% 6.7% 96.7 -0.5% 20.3% CPO/tonne Coal/tonne Corn/bushel Wheat/bushel (USd) 3.5 0.3% 2.9% 457.0 0.3% 8.6% INTP: Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ; Rp17,625; Hold) posted net profit amounted to Rp 1.8tn, down 51.9% yoy. This was partly resulted by lower revenue and margins compression in FY17. The earnings numbers came below ours and consensus with 84.4% and 91.2% achievement, respectively. Revenue recorded negative growth by 6.1% yoy to Rp14.4tn in FY17. On quarterly basis, the company bottom line was helped by lower tax rate in 4Q17 which stood at 9.2% (vs. 58.5% in 3Q17) which led net profit to surged by 67.9% qoq albeit revenue declined by 1.3% qoq. On the margin front, the company posted lower margins across the board with gross, operating and net margin stood at 34.7%, 13.4% and 12.9% in FY17 vs 41.2%, 23.5% and 25.2% in FY16. (Bisnis Indonesia). Source : Bloomberg Revenue Gross profit 2017 2016 yoy 4Q17 3Q17 qoq vs.ours vs.cons 14,431 15,362 -6.1% 3,919 3,969 -1.3% 97.8% 98% 5,008 6,331 -20.9% 1,383 1,383 0.0% 84.4% 91.2% Opex 3,080 2,714 13.5% 909 818 11.2% Operating profit 1,928 3,618 -46.7% 474 565 -16.2% Interest (14) (12) 19.2% (5) (4) 24.0% Others-net 375 540 -30.6% 31 90 -65.9% Net income 1,860 3,870 -51.9% 453 270 67.9% Gross margin 34.7% 41.2% 35.3% 34.9% Operating margin 13.4% 23.5% 12.1% 14.2% Net margin 12.9% 25.2% 11.6% 6.8% Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
  20. PremierInsight PRDA : Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ; Rp3,450 ; Buy) booked a 2017 net profit of Rp151bn (+71% yoy) forming 119% of and street consensus, respectively. However, PRDA registered below than expected net sales of Rp1,466bn (+8% yoy) forming 97% market consensus and gross profit of Rp853bn (+8% yoy) building 96% market consensus. All profitability margins reported lower: GPM at 62.5% (2016: 62.8%) OPM at 24% (2016: 25.5%) NPM at 19% (2016: 20.4%). (Company). Comment: The net profit formed 124% of our forecast but the upbeat in net profit was due to net interest income of Rp55bn that offset interest expense of Rp8bn which we think unsustainable given the interest income came from unused IPO proceed. On the top-line, we saw a higher growth in COGS (+8.4% yoy) than its revenue (+7.9% yoy) dragging down all profitability margins. We will review our forecast and assumption for FY18 accordingly. 4Q17 3Q17 4Q16 FY17 FY16 Change Forecast (IDRbn) (IDR b) (IDR b) (IDR b) (q-q%) Change (y-y%) (IDR b) (IDR b) (y-y %) (%) (%) Net Sales 424 369 413 15 3 1,466 1,359 7.9 96.1 97.5 8.4 95.3 96.7 110.1 116.4 124.6 119.5 COGS (173) (154) (165) 13 5 (612) (565) Gross profit 251 216 248 17 1 854 793 7.6 Op. cost (190) (179) (177) 6 7 (713) (676) 5.4 Op.profit 66 37 81 77 (19) 150 130 15.6 Interest expense 12 12 (3) (0) (495) 47 (9) (599.5) (27.9) Others 4 1 10 399 (55) 9 12 Pre-tax profit 77 49 78 58 (0) 197 120 63.7 (26) (9) (19) 189 35 (46) (32) 43.2 52 40 59 29 (12) 151 88 71.1 Tax Net profit Gross margin (% of gross sales) 60.1 61.7 61.5 62.5 62.8 Op. margin (%) 21.3 11.6 21.4 24.0 25.5 Pre tax margin (%) 20.4 11.5 21.5 23.9 25.6 Net margin (%) 16.2 9.2 17.2 19.0 20.4 Consensus Markets & Sector Construction sector: S&P started to highlights debt level of SOE contractors which is assessed to increase rapidly in the last 6 years due to infrastructure development. Debt-to-Ebitda increased from 1 to 4.5 in the period of 2011-2017. S&P forecasted that Debt-to-Ebitda with increased to 5.5x in 2018 & 2019. In addition, SOE contractors’ debt has reached Rp156tn in FY17 (+57% yoy). (Bisnis Indonesia, Investor Daily). Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report 2
  21. Head Office PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS Wisma GKBI 7 /F Suite 718 Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28 Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia p +62.21.5793.1168 f +62.21.5793.1167 INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
  22. 23 March 2018 Premier Insight News & Analysis Corporates 12,000 6,600 10,000 6,500 Rp bn JCI Index 8,000 6,400 6,000 6,300 4,000 6,200 2,000 6,100 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 9-Mar 13-Mar 8-Mar 12-Mar 7-Mar 6-Mar 5-Mar 2-Mar 1-Mar 28-Feb 27-Feb 26-Feb 23-Feb 22-Feb - 21-Feb 6,000 DMAS: Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ; Rp175; Buy) booked an earnings of Rp657bn (-13% yoy)in FY17, which is came below market expectation, cumulating 94/91% of our/consensus’ forecast. Revenue was down by 16.2% yoy with gross margin improved by 480bps to 61% due to decrease in COGS of 25% yoy. However, operating margin remains flat at 49.6% as opex increased by 45% yoy. Net margin improved by 160bps to 49.1% as DMAS booked higher interest income of Rp24bn (FY16: Rp10bn) and lower tax of Rp50bn (-40% yoy). In quarterly basis, DMAS booked strong earnings of Rp402bn in 4Q17 (201% qoq, 53% yoy), cumulating to 61% of FY17 earnings. (Company). 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 0% 9-Mar - (0) 8-Mar 5% 7-Mar 0 -5% % net buy/market turnover Foreign net buy (sell) Net buy (sell) in Rp bn Equity | Indonesia | Research Daily JCI Index 6,700 Comment: The result was lower than our expectation, cumulating to 94% of our FY17 forecast due to lower than expected Other income, which came from estate management (-66% yoy). Maintain Buy on DMAS with TP of Rp270. FY17 FY16 YoY % from our FY17 % from Consensus' FY17 Net sales 1,336.4 1,593.8 -16.2% 99% 95% COGS (521.5) (697.9) -25.3% 814.9 895.9 -9.0% (153.7) (105.9) 45.1% 661.2 789.9 -16.3% Net interest inc (exp) 23.7 9.8 Other 22.5 (Rp bn) (0) -10% (0) -15% (0) -20% (0) -25% Gross profit Opex EBIT Key Indexes Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD JCI 6,254 - 0.9% 12.4% -1.6% LQ45 1,027 - 1.1% 10.8% -4.9% DJI 23,958 - 2.9% 16.0% -3.1% SET 1,799 - 0.2% 14.7% 2.6% HSI 31,071 - 1.1% 27.7% 3.9% NKY 4Q17 4Q16 qoq 842.7 261.2 222.6% (340.5) (110.2) 209.0% 502.2 151.0 232.5% (71.4) (28.6) 150.0% 430.8 122.5 251.8% 141.7% 3.6 2.3 58.1% 41.4 -45.8% (5.4) 21.1 -125.6% 100% 97% 99% 94% Pretax profit 707.3 841.2 -15.9% 429.0 145.8 194.3% Tax (50.2) (83.6) -40.0% (26.4) (12.2) 116.7% Net Profit 656.7 757.2 -13.3% 402.3 133.5 201.3% 94% 91% 21,592 1.0% 13.1% -8.2% Gross margin 61.0% 56.2% 59.6% 57.8% FTSE 6,953 - 1.2% -5.3% -9.6% Op. margin 49.5% 49.6% 51.1% 46.9% FSSTI 3,491 - 0.6% 11.7% 2.6% Net margin 49.1% 47.5% 47.7% 51.1% 27 - 3.6% 2.6% -6.5% EIDO Commodity price Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year (in USD) Oil/barrel (WTI) 64.2 -1.4% 35.6% 625.7 0.1% -13.4% Soy/bushel 9.9 0.0% 1.4% Rubber/kg 1.7 0.0% -43.7% Nickel/tonne 13,146 -2.0% 32.0% Tins/tonne 20,915 -0.7% 2.0% Copper/tonne 6,653 -1.6% 15.1% Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,329 -0.3% 6.7% 96.7 -0.5% 20.3% CPO/tonne Coal/tonne Corn/bushel Wheat/bushel (USd) 3.5 0.3% 2.9% 457.0 0.3% 8.6% INTP: Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ; Rp17,625; Hold) posted net profit amounted to Rp 1.8tn, down 51.9% yoy. This was partly resulted by lower revenue and margins compression in FY17. The earnings numbers came below ours and consensus with 84.4% and 91.2% achievement, respectively. Revenue recorded negative growth by 6.1% yoy to Rp14.4tn in FY17. On quarterly basis, the company bottom line was helped by lower tax rate in 4Q17 which stood at 9.2% (vs. 58.5% in 3Q17) which led net profit to surged by 67.9% qoq albeit revenue declined by 1.3% qoq. On the margin front, the company posted lower margins across the board with gross, operating and net margin stood at 34.7%, 13.4% and 12.9% in FY17 vs 41.2%, 23.5% and 25.2% in FY16. (Bisnis Indonesia). Source : Bloomberg Revenue Gross profit 2017 2016 yoy 4Q17 3Q17 qoq vs.ours vs.cons 14,431 15,362 -6.1% 3,919 3,969 -1.3% 97.8% 98% 5,008 6,331 -20.9% 1,383 1,383 0.0% 84.4% 91.2% Opex 3,080 2,714 13.5% 909 818 11.2% Operating profit 1,928 3,618 -46.7% 474 565 -16.2% Interest (14) (12) 19.2% (5) (4) 24.0% Others-net 375 540 -30.6% 31 90 -65.9% Net income 1,860 3,870 -51.9% 453 270 67.9% Gross margin 34.7% 41.2% 35.3% 34.9% Operating margin 13.4% 23.5% 12.1% 14.2% Net margin 12.9% 25.2% 11.6% 6.8% Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
  23. PremierInsight PRDA : Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ; Rp3,450 ; Buy) booked a 2017 net profit of Rp151bn (+71% yoy) forming 119% of and street consensus, respectively. However, PRDA registered below than expected net sales of Rp1,466bn (+8% yoy) forming 97% market consensus and gross profit of Rp853bn (+8% yoy) building 96% market consensus. All profitability margins reported lower: GPM at 62.5% (2016: 62.8%) OPM at 24% (2016: 25.5%) NPM at 19% (2016: 20.4%). (Company). Comment: The net profit formed 124% of our forecast but the upbeat in net profit was due to net interest income of Rp55bn that offset interest expense of Rp8bn which we think unsustainable given the interest income came from unused IPO proceed. On the top-line, we saw a higher growth in COGS (+8.4% yoy) than its revenue (+7.9% yoy) dragging down all profitability margins. We will review our forecast and assumption for FY18 accordingly. 4Q17 3Q17 4Q16 FY17 FY16 Change Forecast (IDRbn) (IDR b) (IDR b) (IDR b) (q-q%) Change (y-y%) (IDR b) (IDR b) (y-y %) (%) (%) Net Sales 424 369 413 15 3 1,466 1,359 7.9 96.1 97.5 8.4 95.3 96.7 110.1 116.4 124.6 119.5 COGS (173) (154) (165) 13 5 (612) (565) Gross profit 251 216 248 17 1 854 793 7.6 Op. cost (190) (179) (177) 6 7 (713) (676) 5.4 Op.profit 66 37 81 77 (19) 150 130 15.6 Interest expense 12 12 (3) (0) (495) 47 (9) (599.5) (27.9) Others 4 1 10 399 (55) 9 12 Pre-tax profit 77 49 78 58 (0) 197 120 63.7 (26) (9) (19) 189 35 (46) (32) 43.2 52 40 59 29 (12) 151 88 71.1 Tax Net profit Gross margin (% of gross sales) 60.1 61.7 61.5 62.5 62.8 Op. margin (%) 21.3 11.6 21.4 24.0 25.5 Pre tax margin (%) 20.4 11.5 21.5 23.9 25.6 Net margin (%) 16.2 9.2 17.2 19.0 20.4 Consensus Markets & Sector Construction sector: S&P started to highlights debt level of SOE contractors which is assessed to increase rapidly in the last 6 years due to infrastructure development. Debt-to-Ebitda increased from 1 to 4.5 in the period of 2011-2017. S&P forecasted that Debt-to-Ebitda with increased to 5.5x in 2018 & 2019. In addition, SOE contractors’ debt has reached Rp156tn in FY17 (+57% yoy). (Bisnis Indonesia, Investor Daily). Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report 2
  24. Head Office PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS Wisma GKBI 7 /F Suite 718 Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28 Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia p +62.21.5793.1168 f +62.21.5793.1167 INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
  25. 23 March 2018 Premier Insight News & Analysis Corporates 12,000 6,600 10,000 6,500 Rp bn JCI Index 8,000 6,400 6,000 6,300 4,000 6,200 2,000 6,100 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 9-Mar 13-Mar 8-Mar 12-Mar 7-Mar 6-Mar 5-Mar 2-Mar 1-Mar 28-Feb 27-Feb 26-Feb 23-Feb 22-Feb - 21-Feb 6,000 DMAS: Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ; Rp175; Buy) booked an earnings of Rp657bn (-13% yoy)in FY17, which is came below market expectation, cumulating 94/91% of our/consensus’ forecast. Revenue was down by 16.2% yoy with gross margin improved by 480bps to 61% due to decrease in COGS of 25% yoy. However, operating margin remains flat at 49.6% as opex increased by 45% yoy. Net margin improved by 160bps to 49.1% as DMAS booked higher interest income of Rp24bn (FY16: Rp10bn) and lower tax of Rp50bn (-40% yoy). In quarterly basis, DMAS booked strong earnings of Rp402bn in 4Q17 (201% qoq, 53% yoy), cumulating to 61% of FY17 earnings. (Company). 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 0% 9-Mar - (0) 8-Mar 5% 7-Mar 0 -5% % net buy/market turnover Foreign net buy (sell) Net buy (sell) in Rp bn Equity | Indonesia | Research Daily JCI Index 6,700 Comment: The result was lower than our expectation, cumulating to 94% of our FY17 forecast due to lower than expected Other income, which came from estate management (-66% yoy). Maintain Buy on DMAS with TP of Rp270. FY17 FY16 YoY % from our FY17 % from Consensus' FY17 Net sales 1,336.4 1,593.8 -16.2% 99% 95% COGS (521.5) (697.9) -25.3% 814.9 895.9 -9.0% (153.7) (105.9) 45.1% 661.2 789.9 -16.3% Net interest inc (exp) 23.7 9.8 Other 22.5 (Rp bn) (0) -10% (0) -15% (0) -20% (0) -25% Gross profit Opex EBIT Key Indexes Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD JCI 6,254 - 0.9% 12.4% -1.6% LQ45 1,027 - 1.1% 10.8% -4.9% DJI 23,958 - 2.9% 16.0% -3.1% SET 1,799 - 0.2% 14.7% 2.6% HSI 31,071 - 1.1% 27.7% 3.9% NKY 4Q17 4Q16 qoq 842.7 261.2 222.6% (340.5) (110.2) 209.0% 502.2 151.0 232.5% (71.4) (28.6) 150.0% 430.8 122.5 251.8% 141.7% 3.6 2.3 58.1% 41.4 -45.8% (5.4) 21.1 -125.6% 100% 97% 99% 94% Pretax profit 707.3 841.2 -15.9% 429.0 145.8 194.3% Tax (50.2) (83.6) -40.0% (26.4) (12.2) 116.7% Net Profit 656.7 757.2 -13.3% 402.3 133.5 201.3% 94% 91% 21,592 1.0% 13.1% -8.2% Gross margin 61.0% 56.2% 59.6% 57.8% FTSE 6,953 - 1.2% -5.3% -9.6% Op. margin 49.5% 49.6% 51.1% 46.9% FSSTI 3,491 - 0.6% 11.7% 2.6% Net margin 49.1% 47.5% 47.7% 51.1% 27 - 3.6% 2.6% -6.5% EIDO Commodity price Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year (in USD) Oil/barrel (WTI) 64.2 -1.4% 35.6% 625.7 0.1% -13.4% Soy/bushel 9.9 0.0% 1.4% Rubber/kg 1.7 0.0% -43.7% Nickel/tonne 13,146 -2.0% 32.0% Tins/tonne 20,915 -0.7% 2.0% Copper/tonne 6,653 -1.6% 15.1% Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,329 -0.3% 6.7% 96.7 -0.5% 20.3% CPO/tonne Coal/tonne Corn/bushel Wheat/bushel (USd) 3.5 0.3% 2.9% 457.0 0.3% 8.6% INTP: Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ; Rp17,625; Hold) posted net profit amounted to Rp 1.8tn, down 51.9% yoy. This was partly resulted by lower revenue and margins compression in FY17. The earnings numbers came below ours and consensus with 84.4% and 91.2% achievement, respectively. Revenue recorded negative growth by 6.1% yoy to Rp14.4tn in FY17. On quarterly basis, the company bottom line was helped by lower tax rate in 4Q17 which stood at 9.2% (vs. 58.5% in 3Q17) which led net profit to surged by 67.9% qoq albeit revenue declined by 1.3% qoq. On the margin front, the company posted lower margins across the board with gross, operating and net margin stood at 34.7%, 13.4% and 12.9% in FY17 vs 41.2%, 23.5% and 25.2% in FY16. (Bisnis Indonesia). Source : Bloomberg Revenue Gross profit 2017 2016 yoy 4Q17 3Q17 qoq vs.ours vs.cons 14,431 15,362 -6.1% 3,919 3,969 -1.3% 97.8% 98% 5,008 6,331 -20.9% 1,383 1,383 0.0% 84.4% 91.2% Opex 3,080 2,714 13.5% 909 818 11.2% Operating profit 1,928 3,618 -46.7% 474 565 -16.2% Interest (14) (12) 19.2% (5) (4) 24.0% Others-net 375 540 -30.6% 31 90 -65.9% Net income 1,860 3,870 -51.9% 453 270 67.9% Gross margin 34.7% 41.2% 35.3% 34.9% Operating margin 13.4% 23.5% 12.1% 14.2% Net margin 12.9% 25.2% 11.6% 6.8% Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
  26. PremierInsight PRDA : Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ; Rp3,450 ; Buy) booked a 2017 net profit of Rp151bn (+71% yoy) forming 119% of and street consensus, respectively. However, PRDA registered below than expected net sales of Rp1,466bn (+8% yoy) forming 97% market consensus and gross profit of Rp853bn (+8% yoy) building 96% market consensus. All profitability margins reported lower: GPM at 62.5% (2016: 62.8%) OPM at 24% (2016: 25.5%) NPM at 19% (2016: 20.4%). (Company). Comment: The net profit formed 124% of our forecast but the upbeat in net profit was due to net interest income of Rp55bn that offset interest expense of Rp8bn which we think unsustainable given the interest income came from unused IPO proceed. On the top-line, we saw a higher growth in COGS (+8.4% yoy) than its revenue (+7.9% yoy) dragging down all profitability margins. We will review our forecast and assumption for FY18 accordingly. 4Q17 3Q17 4Q16 FY17 FY16 Change Forecast (IDRbn) (IDR b) (IDR b) (IDR b) (q-q%) Change (y-y%) (IDR b) (IDR b) (y-y %) (%) (%) Net Sales 424 369 413 15 3 1,466 1,359 7.9 96.1 97.5 8.4 95.3 96.7 110.1 116.4 124.6 119.5 COGS (173) (154) (165) 13 5 (612) (565) Gross profit 251 216 248 17 1 854 793 7.6 Op. cost (190) (179) (177) 6 7 (713) (676) 5.4 Op.profit 66 37 81 77 (19) 150 130 15.6 Interest expense 12 12 (3) (0) (495) 47 (9) (599.5) (27.9) Others 4 1 10 399 (55) 9 12 Pre-tax profit 77 49 78 58 (0) 197 120 63.7 (26) (9) (19) 189 35 (46) (32) 43.2 52 40 59 29 (12) 151 88 71.1 Tax Net profit Gross margin (% of gross sales) 60.1 61.7 61.5 62.5 62.8 Op. margin (%) 21.3 11.6 21.4 24.0 25.5 Pre tax margin (%) 20.4 11.5 21.5 23.9 25.6 Net margin (%) 16.2 9.2 17.2 19.0 20.4 Consensus Markets & Sector Construction sector: S&P started to highlights debt level of SOE contractors which is assessed to increase rapidly in the last 6 years due to infrastructure development. Debt-to-Ebitda increased from 1 to 4.5 in the period of 2011-2017. S&P forecasted that Debt-to-Ebitda with increased to 5.5x in 2018 & 2019. In addition, SOE contractors’ debt has reached Rp156tn in FY17 (+57% yoy). (Bisnis Indonesia, Investor Daily). Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report 2
  27. Head Office PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS Wisma GKBI 7 /F Suite 718 Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28 Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia p +62.21.5793.1168 f +62.21.5793.1167 INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
  28. 23 March 2018 Premier Insight News & Analysis Corporates 12,000 6,600 10,000 6,500 Rp bn JCI Index 8,000 6,400 6,000 6,300 4,000 6,200 2,000 6,100 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 9-Mar 13-Mar 8-Mar 12-Mar 7-Mar 6-Mar 5-Mar 2-Mar 1-Mar 28-Feb 27-Feb 26-Feb 23-Feb 22-Feb - 21-Feb 6,000 DMAS: Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ; Rp175; Buy) booked an earnings of Rp657bn (-13% yoy)in FY17, which is came below market expectation, cumulating 94/91% of our/consensus’ forecast. Revenue was down by 16.2% yoy with gross margin improved by 480bps to 61% due to decrease in COGS of 25% yoy. However, operating margin remains flat at 49.6% as opex increased by 45% yoy. Net margin improved by 160bps to 49.1% as DMAS booked higher interest income of Rp24bn (FY16: Rp10bn) and lower tax of Rp50bn (-40% yoy). In quarterly basis, DMAS booked strong earnings of Rp402bn in 4Q17 (201% qoq, 53% yoy), cumulating to 61% of FY17 earnings. (Company). 22-Mar 21-Mar 20-Mar 19-Mar 16-Mar 15-Mar 14-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 0% 9-Mar - (0) 8-Mar 5% 7-Mar 0 -5% % net buy/market turnover Foreign net buy (sell) Net buy (sell) in Rp bn Equity | Indonesia | Research Daily JCI Index 6,700 Comment: The result was lower than our expectation, cumulating to 94% of our FY17 forecast due to lower than expected Other income, which came from estate management (-66% yoy). Maintain Buy on DMAS with TP of Rp270. FY17 FY16 YoY % from our FY17 % from Consensus' FY17 Net sales 1,336.4 1,593.8 -16.2% 99% 95% COGS (521.5) (697.9) -25.3% 814.9 895.9 -9.0% (153.7) (105.9) 45.1% 661.2 789.9 -16.3% Net interest inc (exp) 23.7 9.8 Other 22.5 (Rp bn) (0) -10% (0) -15% (0) -20% (0) -25% Gross profit Opex EBIT Key Indexes Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD JCI 6,254 - 0.9% 12.4% -1.6% LQ45 1,027 - 1.1% 10.8% -4.9% DJI 23,958 - 2.9% 16.0% -3.1% SET 1,799 - 0.2% 14.7% 2.6% HSI 31,071 - 1.1% 27.7% 3.9% NKY 4Q17 4Q16 qoq 842.7 261.2 222.6% (340.5) (110.2) 209.0% 502.2 151.0 232.5% (71.4) (28.6) 150.0% 430.8 122.5 251.8% 141.7% 3.6 2.3 58.1% 41.4 -45.8% (5.4) 21.1 -125.6% 100% 97% 99% 94% Pretax profit 707.3 841.2 -15.9% 429.0 145.8 194.3% Tax (50.2) (83.6) -40.0% (26.4) (12.2) 116.7% Net Profit 656.7 757.2 -13.3% 402.3 133.5 201.3% 94% 91% 21,592 1.0% 13.1% -8.2% Gross margin 61.0% 56.2% 59.6% 57.8% FTSE 6,953 - 1.2% -5.3% -9.6% Op. margin 49.5% 49.6% 51.1% 46.9% FSSTI 3,491 - 0.6% 11.7% 2.6% Net margin 49.1% 47.5% 47.7% 51.1% 27 - 3.6% 2.6% -6.5% EIDO Commodity price Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year (in USD) Oil/barrel (WTI) 64.2 -1.4% 35.6% 625.7 0.1% -13.4% Soy/bushel 9.9 0.0% 1.4% Rubber/kg 1.7 0.0% -43.7% Nickel/tonne 13,146 -2.0% 32.0% Tins/tonne 20,915 -0.7% 2.0% Copper/tonne 6,653 -1.6% 15.1% Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,329 -0.3% 6.7% 96.7 -0.5% 20.3% CPO/tonne Coal/tonne Corn/bushel Wheat/bushel (USd) 3.5 0.3% 2.9% 457.0 0.3% 8.6% INTP: Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ; Rp17,625; Hold) posted net profit amounted to Rp 1.8tn, down 51.9% yoy. This was partly resulted by lower revenue and margins compression in FY17. The earnings numbers came below ours and consensus with 84.4% and 91.2% achievement, respectively. Revenue recorded negative growth by 6.1% yoy to Rp14.4tn in FY17. On quarterly basis, the company bottom line was helped by lower tax rate in 4Q17 which stood at 9.2% (vs. 58.5% in 3Q17) which led net profit to surged by 67.9% qoq albeit revenue declined by 1.3% qoq. On the margin front, the company posted lower margins across the board with gross, operating and net margin stood at 34.7%, 13.4% and 12.9% in FY17 vs 41.2%, 23.5% and 25.2% in FY16. (Bisnis Indonesia). Source : Bloomberg Revenue Gross profit 2017 2016 yoy 4Q17 3Q17 qoq vs.ours vs.cons 14,431 15,362 -6.1% 3,919 3,969 -1.3% 97.8% 98% 5,008 6,331 -20.9% 1,383 1,383 0.0% 84.4% 91.2% Opex 3,080 2,714 13.5% 909 818 11.2% Operating profit 1,928 3,618 -46.7% 474 565 -16.2% Interest (14) (12) 19.2% (5) (4) 24.0% Others-net 375 540 -30.6% 31 90 -65.9% Net income 1,860 3,870 -51.9% 453 270 67.9% Gross margin 34.7% 41.2% 35.3% 34.9% Operating margin 13.4% 23.5% 12.1% 14.2% Net margin 12.9% 25.2% 11.6% 6.8% Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
  29. PremierInsight PRDA : Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ; Rp3,450 ; Buy) booked a 2017 net profit of Rp151bn (+71% yoy) forming 119% of and street consensus, respectively. However, PRDA registered below than expected net sales of Rp1,466bn (+8% yoy) forming 97% market consensus and gross profit of Rp853bn (+8% yoy) building 96% market consensus. All profitability margins reported lower: GPM at 62.5% (2016: 62.8%) OPM at 24% (2016: 25.5%) NPM at 19% (2016: 20.4%). (Company). Comment: The net profit formed 124% of our forecast but the upbeat in net profit was due to net interest income of Rp55bn that offset interest expense of Rp8bn which we think unsustainable given the interest income came from unused IPO proceed. On the top-line, we saw a higher growth in COGS (+8.4% yoy) than its revenue (+7.9% yoy) dragging down all profitability margins. We will review our forecast and assumption for FY18 accordingly. 4Q17 3Q17 4Q16 FY17 FY16 Change Forecast (IDRbn) (IDR b) (IDR b) (IDR b) (q-q%) Change (y-y%) (IDR b) (IDR b) (y-y %) (%) (%) Net Sales 424 369 413 15 3 1,466 1,359 7.9 96.1 97.5 8.4 95.3 96.7 110.1 116.4 124.6 119.5 COGS (173) (154) (165) 13 5 (612) (565) Gross profit 251 216 248 17 1 854 793 7.6 Op. cost (190) (179) (177) 6 7 (713) (676) 5.4 Op.profit 66 37 81 77 (19) 150 130 15.6 Interest expense 12 12 (3) (0) (495) 47 (9) (599.5) (27.9) Others 4 1 10 399 (55) 9 12 Pre-tax profit 77 49 78 58 (0) 197 120 63.7 (26) (9) (19) 189 35 (46) (32) 43.2 52 40 59 29 (12) 151 88 71.1 Tax Net profit Gross margin (% of gross sales) 60.1 61.7 61.5 62.5 62.8 Op. margin (%) 21.3 11.6 21.4 24.0 25.5 Pre tax margin (%) 20.4 11.5 21.5 23.9 25.6 Net margin (%) 16.2 9.2 17.2 19.0 20.4 Consensus Markets & Sector Construction sector: S&P started to highlights debt level of SOE contractors which is assessed to increase rapidly in the last 6 years due to infrastructure development. Debt-to-Ebitda increased from 1 to 4.5 in the period of 2011-2017. S&P forecasted that Debt-to-Ebitda with increased to 5.5x in 2018 & 2019. In addition, SOE contractors’ debt has reached Rp156tn in FY17 (+57% yoy). (Bisnis Indonesia, Investor Daily). Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report 2
  30. Head Office PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS Wisma GKBI 7 /F Suite 718 Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28 Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia p +62.21.5793.1168 f +62.21.5793.1167 INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.