Indonesia: Consumer Expectation Survey - August 2017

Transcription

1. CONSUMER SURVEY August 2017  The Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey revealed that respondents were remained optimistic on economic conditions in August 2017 though less upbeat. The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recorded at 121.9, despite dropping 1.5 points from 123.4.  The Survey also showed that respondents were primarily upbeat on job availability in the next six months. In contrast, however, respondents perceived a decline in current incomes as well as conditions for buying durable goods, as the main drag on the CCI.  Congruent with the lower income index, the average propensity to consume ratio for households fell 0.2% to 63.8%, while the debt service to income ratio dropped 0.3% to 15.1%. In contrast, the savings to income ratio bucked the downward trend to post a 0.5% gain, rising to 21.1%. Less consumption was accompanied by a greater inclination to save, representing an intertemporal adjustment in the pattern of public consumption.  Consumers predicted inflationary pressures to accelerate in the next three and six months and then to ease in the next 12 months. A. Consumer Confidence Respondents remained optimistics but less upbeat in August 2017. A1. Consumer Confidence Index The Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey revealed that consumers were less upbeat on economic conditions in August 2017 but remained optimistic (index > 100) with a persistently high CCI recorded at 121.9, despite dropping 1.5 points from 123.4 (Graph 1) the month earlier. Respondents were primarily upbeat on the job availability index in the next six months. In contrast, respondents perceived a decline in current incomes as well as conditions for buying durable goods, as the main drag on the CCI. The flagging CCI in August 2017 affected nearly all respondent groups, particularly those spending Rp4.1-5 million and Rp1-2 million per month as well as those aged 51-60 (Graph 2 and 3). Regionally, the deepest CCI declines were reported in Banjarmasin (-8.5 points), Mataram (-7.2 points) and Jakarta (-6.7 points). Methodology ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Consumer Survey has been conducted monthly since October 1999. Moreover, since January 2007 the Survey has involved 4,600 households as respondents (stratified random sampling) in 18 cities, namely Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang, Surabaya, Medan, Makassar, Bandar Lampung, Palembang, Banjarmasin, Padang, Pontianak, Samarinda, Manado, Denpasar, Mataram, Pangkal Pinang, Ambon and Banten. The index of each city is calculated using the balanced score method (net balance + 100), which indicates that a score of 100 is considered optimistic and an index of below 100 is pessimistic. Real Sector Statistics Division 1
2. Consumer Survey Graph 1 . Consumer Confidence Index Grafik 2. CCI by Spending Level Grafik 3. A2. Current Economic Condition Index Respondents perceived slightly more downbeat current economic conditions in the reporting period. Respondents perceived slightly more downbeat current economic conditions in the reporting period, reflected by a dip of 2.6 points in the Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) for August 2017 to 110.6, stemming from the current income index and conditions for buying durable goods index (Graph 4). Graph 4. Current Economic Condition Index by Components Real Sector Statistics Division 2
3. Consumer Survey In August 2017 , the current income index fell 5.6 points to 121.3, which is still deep in optimistic territory (index > 100). Notwithstanding, the current income index decline affected all respondent groups, particularly those with a monthly spend of Rp4.1-5 million as well as those aged 31-40 and 51-60 (Graph 5 and 6). Meanwhile, the dip of 3.7 points reported in the conditions for buying durable goods index to 110.7 affected nearly all respondent groups, most significantly those spending Rp1-2 million per month as well as those aged 5160 and 20-30 (Graph 7 and 8). Respondents cited electronic goods and household furniture for the decline. Graph 5. CECI by Spending Level Graph 6. CE Graph 7. Buying durable goods Index by Graph 8. Buying durable goods Index by Spending Level Ages A3. Consumer Expectation Index Respondents were also less upbeat on future economic conditions. Despite ongoing optimism, respondents were slightly less upbeat on future economic conditions in August 2017, with the Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) edged down from 133.6 to 133.2 by lower business and income expectations, contrasting the optimistic outlook for future job availability (Graph 4). In August 2017, the job availability index tracked an upward trend, rising 2.2 points to 120.1, on the back of respondents with a tertiary education as well as those aged 20-30 (Graph 10 and 11). In addition, the recent proliferation of government infrastructure development projects further boosted optimism amongst respondents. Real Sector Statistics Division 3
4. Consumer Survey Graph 9 . Consumer Expectation Index by Components Conversely, respondents confirmed a 3.3-point decline the business expectations index to a level of 134.9, which affected nearly all respondent groups based on spending and age. The deepest declines affected those spending Rp3.1-4 million monthly and retirees aged over 60 (Graph 12 and 13) due to escalating inflationary pressures that could subdue future business activity. The income expectations index was also observed to decline, falling 0.2 points to 144.4 on the previous period. Respondents spending Rp1-2 million and Rp2.1-3 million per month, as well as those aged 51-60, reported the deepest declines (Graph 14 and 15). Nevertheless, respondents did expect incomes/turnover to improve in the next six months, although the outlook was not as promising as conditions reported one month earlier. Graph 10. Job Availability Expectation by Real Sector Statistics Division Graph 11. Job Availability Expectation by 4
5. Consumer Survey Graph 12 . Business Condition Expectation Graph 13. Business Condition Expectation Graph 14. Income Expectation by Spending Level Graph 15. Income Expectation by B. Consumer Financial Conditions B1. Consumer Income Respondents were less inclined to consume. Congruent with the lower income index in August 2017, the average propensity to consume ratio for households fell 0.2% to 63.8%, while the debt service to income ratio dropped 0.3% to 15.1%. In contrast, the savings to income ratio bucked the downward trend to post a 0.5% gain, rising to 21.1% (Graph 16). Graph 16. Distribution of Household Income Allocation Real Sector Statistics Division 5
6. Consumer Survey Respondents spending more than Rp 3 million per month were less inclined to consume , contrasting those spending Rp1-2 million and Rp2.1-3 million per month, who were more disposed to consume. Meanwhile, a higher savings to income ratio was confirmed by all respondent groups, especially those spending Rp1-2 million and Rp2.1-3 million monthly. Graph 17. Graph 18. by Spending Level Spending Level B2. Consumption, Savings and Debt Respondents expected to spend more on consumption in the next three months. Respondents expected to spend more on consumption in November 2017 compared to conditions last period, with the 3-month household consumption index confirmed to rise from 155.7 to 156.6, primarily on food purchases. Graph 19. Consumption Expectation Index for The Next 3 Months Respondents predicted to save more in the next six months. Respondents also expected to save more in the next six months (February 2018), while rising loan repayments were predicted to slow, indicated by an increase in the 6-month savings expectation index of 2.1 points to 113.3, while the debt expectation index decreased 2.4 points to 155.8 (Graph 20). Real Sector Statistics Division 6
7. Consumer Survey Graph 20 . Saving and Debt Expectation Index for The Next 6 Months B3. Placements of Disposable Income and House Purchases Respondents confirmed their proclivity to place disposable income in savings deposits and term deposits. Respondents confirmed their proclivity to place disposable income in savings deposits/term deposits over the upcoming 12 months. Most (52.3%) respondents reported that savings deposits and term deposits were their preferred destination for disposable income, increasing from 49.6% in the previous period. In addition to savings deposits and term deposits, 21.8% of respondents preferred to invest in property, while 14.9% placed their disposable income in gold/jewellery (Graph 21). Graph 21. Placement of Disposable Income in The Next 12 Months Respondents were less inclined to buy/build a house. In the upcoming 12 months (September 2017 August 2018), 5.4% of respondents expressed a distinct desire to buy/build a house, down on the previous period. Meanwhile, 28.3% of respondents thought that buying/building a house was a possibility and 66.3% expressed no desire to buy/build a house or were unsure (Graph 22). Real Sector Statistics Division 7
8. Consumer Survey Graph 22 . Placement Plan on Property in The Next 12 Months C. Consumer Price Expectations Respondents expected inflationary pressures to accumulate in the next 3 months. C1. Price Expectations for the Upcoming 3 Months Respondents expected inflationary pressures to accumulate slightly in November 2017, driven by concerns over an electricity rate hike, which triggered a 0.7-bump in the 3-month Price Expectations Index (PEI) to 165.5 (Graph 23). Regionally, an increase in the 3-month PEI was reported in nine of the cities surveyed, particularly in Manado (21.0 points) and Semarang (17.0 points). Graph 23. Price Expectation Index for the next 3 months C2. Price Expectations for the Upcoming 6 Months Respondents also expected inflationary pressures to build in the next 6 months. Respondents also expected inflationary pressures to build at the administered prices in the form of electricity rates and energy prices (fuels and LPG). In August 2017, the 6-month PEI stood at 173.3, up 1.8 points on the previous period (Graph 24). Regionally, an increase in the 6-month PEI was Real Sector Statistics Division 8
9. Consumer Survey reported in nine cities , most significantly in Semarang (20.4 points) and Padang (11.0 points). Graph 24. Price Expectation Index for the next 6 months C3. Price Expectations for the Upcoming 12 Months Respondents predicted milder inflationary pressures in the next 12 months. Respondents predicted milder inflationary pressures in the next 12 months, reflecting a 12-month PEI of 175.8, up 1.8 points on the month earlier (Graph 24). Regionally, a decline in the 12-month PEI was reported in 10 cities, particularly in Pontianak (-26.0 points) and Banten (-17.5 points). Graph 25. Price Expectation Index for the next 12 months Real Sector Statistics Division 9
10. Table 1 . Consumer Confidence Index and Prices Expectation Index Descriptions A. 2017 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Changes Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 115.3 117.1 121.5 123.7 125.9 122.4 123.4 121.9 -1.5 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 104.2 105.2 108.7 112.1 115.0 113.7 113.2 110.6 -2.6 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 126.4 129.1 134.4 135.4 136.9 131.0 133.6 133.2 -0.4 Current Economic Condition Index (compared to the previous 6 months) - Current Incomes Index - Employment Conditions Index - Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index 118.5 118.2 120.6 124.0 124.0 127.0 126.9 121.3 88.8 90.5 95.1 98.8 104.9 96.6 98.3 -5.6 99.8 1.5 105.4 106.9 110.3 113.4 116.0 117.5 114.4 110.7 -3.7 Consumer Expectation Index (the next 6 months compared to the current condition) B. - Incomes Expectation Index 142.9 140.8 144.1 145.4 148.2 141.7 144.6 144.4 -0.2 - Employment Conditions Expectation Index 111.3 117.0 123.1 122.2 124.8 116.6 117.9 120.1 2.2 - Business Activities Expectation Index 125.1 129.4 136.0 138.5 137.7 134.7 138.2 134.9 -3.3 - Price expectations index for the next 3 months 171.8 170.8 171.7 176.5 177.0 163.9 164.8 165.5 0.7 - Price expectations index for the next 6 months 176.0 174.8 166.1 169.0 166.5 167.5 171.5 173.3 1.8 - Price expectations index for the next 12 months 174.8 176.1 174.5 178.1 176.4 176.0 177.1 175.8 -1.3 Price Expectations Index Real Sector Statistics Division 10
11. Table 2 . Consumer Confidence Index by Respondent Expenditure Level 2017 Descriptions A. B. C. Changes Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) - Expenditure level Rp. 1 - 2 million 117.4 109.7 121.0 125.9 127.1 121.7 128.8 123.1 -5.7 - Expenditure level Rp. 2,1 - 3 million 118.0 116.7 124.1 123.1 127.3 122.6 123.1 120.1 -3.0 - Expenditure level Rp. 3,1 - 4 million 115.0 118.9 123.9 121.0 127.1 118.9 126.5 122.0 -4.5 - Expenditure level Rp. 4,1 - 5 million 110.3 117.9 120.0 122.3 122.4 120.2 122.5 116.0 -6.5 - Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million 114.2 120.0 118.3 119.0 128.4 122.9 127.6 122.2 -5.4 Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) - Expenditure level Rp. 1 - 2 million 107.4 95.4 109.0 112.4 114.9 114.8 117.8 111.9 -5.9 - Expenditure level Rp. 2,1 - 3 million 105.4 105.4 113.3 110.1 117.5 113.7 113.7 109.3 -4.4 - Expenditure level Rp. 3,1 - 4 million 103.0 107.1 110.8 109.7 116.5 110.5 116.4 110.6 -5.8 - Expenditure level Rp. 4,1 - 5 million 103.1 103.8 107.7 112.3 111.0 111.4 112.3 104.3 -8.0 - Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million 102.7 105.0 104.3 106.9 118.3 114.8 117.9 110.7 -7.2 - Expenditure level Rp. 1 - 2 million 127.5 123.9 133.1 139.4 139.3 128.7 139.8 134.3 -5.5 - Expenditure level Rp. 2,1 - 3 million 130.6 127.9 135.0 136.0 137.1 131.4 132.5 130.9 -1.6 - Expenditure level Rp. 3,1 - 4 million 127.1 130.7 137.0 132.2 137.7 127.3 136.5 133.4 -3.1 - Expenditure level Rp. 4,1 - 5 million 117.5 131.9 132.3 132.2 133.8 129.1 132.6 127.6 -5.0 - Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million 125.7 135.0 132.3 131.2 138.5 130.9 137.2 133.6 -3.6 - Expenditure level Rp. 1 - 2 million 121.5 109.2 124.7 120.3 125.1 127.0 132.3 124.7 -7.6 - Expenditure level Rp. 2,1 - 3 million 122.5 122.9 126.8 124.7 130.8 126.5 127.6 119.6 -8.0 - Expenditure level Rp. 3,1 - 4 million 117.9 118.1 121.1 122.0 123.7 127.9 131.4 124.6 -6.8 - Expenditure level Rp. 4,1 - 5 million 112.3 112.0 114.8 125.2 118.2 126.1 129.0 110.3 -18.7 - Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million 116.6 119.8 122.0 122.4 120.5 130.2 126.5 122.9 -3.6 - Expenditure level Rp. 1 - 2 million 92.1 80.5 99.5 100.2 105.5 101.2 100.4 102.1 1.7 - Expenditure level Rp. 2,1 - 3 million 88.8 87.2 97.0 94.2 105.1 94.1 99.1 97.4 -1.7 - Expenditure level Rp. 3,1 - 4 million 89.4 92.9 99.6 98.0 106.3 88.5 99.8 97.2 -2.6 - Expenditure level Rp. 4,1 - 5 million 79.7 95.9 98.4 100.0 100.2 97.5 97.4 97.9 0.5 - Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million 84.8 88.6 90.3 105.5 105.8 100.5 96.2 107.4 11.2 Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) B1. Current Income Index B2. Employment Conditions Index B3. Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index - Expenditure level Rp. 1 - 2 million 108.6 96.6 102.8 116.9 114.0 116.1 120.6 109.0 -11.6 - Expenditure level Rp. 2,1 - 3 million 105.1 106.1 115.9 111.3 116.7 120.7 114.4 110.8 -3.6 - Expenditure level Rp. 3,1 - 4 million 101.6 110.3 111.6 109.2 119.6 115.2 118.1 110.0 -8.1 - Expenditure level Rp. 4,1 - 5 million 117.4 103.6 109.9 111.8 114.7 110.5 110.6 104.8 -5.8 - Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million 102.3 106.6 111.9 117.6 110.7 126.2 110.8 111.9 1.1 - Expenditure level Rp. 1 - 2 million 141.5 136.1 142.5 147.6 148.7 137.9 149.9 146.0 -3.9 - Expenditure level Rp. 2,1 - 3 million 148.5 139.4 144.1 146.0 148.4 142.6 144.3 141.7 -2.6 - Expenditure level Rp. 3,1 - 4 million 145.3 142.3 143.3 141.3 151.3 140.2 144.6 143.9 -0.7 - Expenditure level Rp. 4,1 - 5 million 138.7 139.0 147.0 141.7 145.2 145.0 142.4 140.8 -1.6 - Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million 140.8 148.2 146.9 147.9 147.5 139.3 141.7 149.1 7.4 - Expenditure level Rp. 1 - 2 million 109.7 110.3 123.9 124.7 126.2 116.8 125.3 118.4 -6.9 - Expenditure level Rp. 2,1 - 3 million 111.4 112.1 123.2 120.2 125.3 117.2 114.2 117.3 3.1 - Expenditure level Rp. 3,1 - 4 million 110.6 120.6 127.7 122.4 123.4 111.9 120.4 123.0 2.6 - Expenditure level Rp. 4,1 - 5 million 97.6 127.6 120.3 121.6 121.2 110.5 120.8 114.0 -6.8 107.8 111.4 124.2 128.2 128.6 110.7 117.6 122.0 4.4 - Expenditure level Rp. 1 - 2 million 131.2 125.4 132.9 146.1 143.1 131.2 144.4 138.6 -5.8 - Expenditure level Rp. 2,1 - 3 million 131.8 132.3 137.6 141.9 137.7 134.3 139.0 133.6 -5.4 - Expenditure level Rp. 3,1 - 4 million 125.4 129.3 140.1 132.9 138.2 129.9 144.6 133.2 -11.4 - Expenditure level Rp. 4,1 - 5 million 116.0 129.2 129.4 133.3 134.9 131.8 134.8 128.1 -6.7 - Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million 123.3 121.7 140.4 138.8 135.8 136.0 130.1 132.0 1.9 C1. Incomes Expectation Index C2. Employment Conditions Expectation Index - Expenditure level > Rp. 5 million C3. Business Activities Expectation Index Real Sector Statistics Division 11
12. Table 3 . Consumer Confidence Index by Respondent Age 2017 Descriptions A. Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug C. (Aug - Jul) - 20-30 year 124.6 128.0 129.7 131.7 134.8 128.0 129.3 127.6 -1.7 - 31-40 year 114.4 116.3 122.4 122.3 124.8 120.3 123.6 119.9 -3.7 - 41-50 year 111.9 112.1 117.1 117.4 115.0 117.5 117.1 118.5 1.4 - 51-60 year 105.2 109.3 113.1 109.2 115.3 120.4 118.7 110.3 -8.4 99.0 96.5 102.0 103.5 104.9 105.2 110.0 107.3 -2.7 - 20-30 year 113.6 117.3 117.5 120.2 124.7 119.5 121.3 116.8 -4.5 - 31-40 year 103.0 103.5 109.4 111.5 112.6 111.4 113.4 108.3 -5.1 - 41-50 year 99.6 98.7 103.7 104.8 103.3 107.7 104.5 108.5 4.0 - 51-60 year 94.4 97.5 99.7 96.4 101.9 111.8 104.6 94.8 -9.8 - >60 year 90.1 86.9 88.2 92.3 98.4 97.9 94.9 96.5 1.6 - 20-30 year 135.5 138.7 141.9 143.3 144.9 136.4 137.4 138.3 0.9 - 31-40 year 125.8 129.2 135.4 133.2 136.9 129.2 133.9 131.4 -2.5 - 41-50 year 124.2 125.5 130.5 130.1 126.7 127.3 129.7 128.6 -1.1 - 51-60 year 116.0 121.2 126.6 121.9 128.8 129.0 132.7 125.8 -6.9 - >60 year 107.8 106.2 115.7 114.7 111.4 112.4 125.0 118.1 -6.9 - 20-30 year 132.4 132.0 131.2 136.8 133.6 134.9 138.1 132.1 -6.0 - 31-40 year 119.1 120.4 121.5 120.9 121.8 125.8 127.8 119.1 -8.7 - 41-50 year 108.4 109.6 116.2 115.8 111.2 118.3 116.1 113.5 -2.6 - 51-60 year 102.4 100.4 105.9 101.6 111.9 119.8 109.7 100.9 -8.8 - >60 year 104.7 91.6 96.0 96.0 103.9 111.5 91.1 86.3 -4.8 - 20-30 year 94.1 98.6 103.0 102.9 112.2 100.1 103.9 103.6 -0.3 - 31-40 year 88.8 88.2 94.4 101.7 100.8 92.4 97.4 96.5 -0.9 - 41-50 year 88.5 87.5 92.9 94.6 99.8 95.9 92.4 104.0 11.6 - 51-60 year 79.1 89.5 88.5 82.1 97.7 103.5 100.1 88.3 -11.8 - >60 year 75.7 68.7 71.3 85.3 86.6 84.1 92.7 101.3 8.6 - 20-30 year 114.4 121.4 118.3 121.0 128.1 123.6 121.9 114.8 -7.1 - 31-40 year 101.0 101.8 112.2 112.0 115.1 115.8 114.9 109.3 -5.6 - 41-50 year 102.1 99.1 101.9 103.9 99.0 109.0 104.9 107.9 3.0 - 51-60 year 101.7 102.5 104.7 105.6 96.0 112.0 104.0 95.1 -8.9 90.0 100.4 97.4 95.8 104.7 98.1 100.8 101.9 1.1 - 20-30 year 152.4 148.7 153.3 154.6 156.2 149.9 147.7 148.8 1.1 - 31-40 year 144.3 144.8 145.5 144.4 150.1 141.3 145.7 146.7 1.0 - 41-50 year 138.8 138.6 141.1 137.6 137.1 133.4 144.0 140.0 -4.0 - 51-60 year 134.0 126.8 131.3 128.5 137.7 132.1 138.2 128.9 -9.3 - >60 year 119.8 107.6 122.0 127.3 117.7 111.0 116.7 118.8 2.1 - 20-30 year 118.7 127.0 127.2 125.0 132.5 117.5 119.5 125.1 5.6 - 31-40 year 108.6 114.4 124.9 124.1 121.7 115.0 120.6 117.1 -3.5 - 41-50 year 110.0 113.9 119.4 117.1 119.6 116.8 111.7 116.8 5.1 - 51-60 year 103.3 116.0 121.0 115.3 123.7 119.9 121.5 116.0 -5.5 98.1 96.8 104.7 102.7 104.2 124.7 113.7 118.5 4.8 - 20-30 year 135.3 140.3 145.2 150.2 146.1 141.9 144.9 141.0 -3.9 - 31-40 year 124.5 128.3 135.7 131.0 138.9 131.2 135.4 130.5 -4.9 - 41-50 year 123.9 124.1 131.1 135.4 123.5 131.6 133.3 129.0 -4.3 - 51-60 year 110.7 120.8 127.4 122.0 125.0 135.0 138.6 132.6 -6.0 - >60 year 105.6 114.1 120.5 114.1 112.2 101.6 144.7 117.2 -27.5 Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - >60 year B. Changes Jan Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) B1. Current Income Index B2. Employment Conditions Index B3. Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index - >60 year C1. Incomes Expectation Index C2. Employment Conditions Expectation Index - >60 year C3. Business Activities Expectation Index Real Sector Statistics Division 12
13. Table 4 . Consumer Confidence Index by Respondent Education Level 2017 Descriptions A. B. C. Changes Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) - High School 116.2 114.7 119.7 122.5 124.1 120.7 122.8 118.8 -4.0 - Diploma 116.3 121.1 124.3 124.4 124.6 123.0 126.0 123.5 -2.5 - Undergraduate 112.5 121.5 123.3 127.2 129.2 124.5 124.0 127.9 3.9 - Graduate 121.5 129.3 136.5 116.6 121.3 130.0 128.4 119.7 -8.7 - High School 103.3 102.5 107.0 110.5 112.0 111.7 113.0 106.2 -6.8 - Diploma 107.1 108.7 111.0 114.3 116.8 114.9 117.2 114.4 -2.8 - Undergraduate 103.8 109.6 110.8 115.0 119.0 116.6 112.8 118.2 5.4 - Graduate 116.6 128.0 121.0 104.7 116.6 116.5 120.0 110.2 -9.8 - High School 129.1 127.0 132.5 134.4 136.2 129.7 132.6 131.4 -1.2 - Diploma 125.4 133.4 137.7 134.5 132.3 131.0 134.8 132.7 -2.1 - Undergraduate 121.1 133.3 135.9 139.5 139.4 132.4 135.1 137.5 2.4 - Graduate 126.3 130.6 152.0 128.5 126.1 143.4 136.8 129.3 -7.5 - High School 117.1 115.1 116.9 121.2 119.1 122.5 125.1 117.1 -8.0 - Diploma 122.0 122.1 121.4 128.5 124.7 133.9 133.1 124.7 -8.4 - Undergraduate 119.8 123.6 128.0 130.0 131.8 133.4 130.1 129.2 -0.9 - Graduate 131.6 146.3 133.7 120.7 133.3 130.3 137.2 122.0 -15.2 - High School 89.7 87.5 93.6 97.8 102.7 94.6 99.2 95.3 -3.9 - Diploma 88.1 95.5 95.0 96.3 109.4 97.3 97.7 100.4 2.7 - Undergraduate 85.6 94.8 97.0 102.3 106.8 100.7 95.1 107.6 12.5 - Graduate 91.3 112.7 112.9 101.7 89.6 100.4 110.1 109.1 -1.0 - High School 103.3 104.8 110.5 112.5 114.3 118.1 114.9 106.1 -8.8 - Diploma 111.3 108.7 116.6 118.2 116.2 113.6 120.8 118.2 -2.6 - Undergraduate 106.1 110.5 107.2 112.6 118.5 115.9 113.1 118.0 4.9 - Graduate 127.0 125.0 116.3 91.6 126.9 118.8 112.7 99.4 -13.3 - High School 143.6 138.4 141.2 143.0 146.8 139.6 142.6 142.9 0.3 - Diploma 148.0 146.8 148.4 147.9 142.4 146.9 149.9 144.3 -5.6 - Undergraduate 139.1 145.4 147.6 151.3 152.9 143.8 146.9 149.0 2.1 - Graduate 150.7 149.3 160.0 144.2 143.2 146.1 150.1 134.3 -15.8 - High School 115.4 114.4 122.3 121.2 125.1 114.5 117.9 117.7 -0.2 - Diploma 107.0 124.6 124.5 121.6 121.9 117.6 118.7 122.2 3.5 - Undergraduate 103.7 120.4 122.3 125.4 123.8 118.6 117.9 123.4 5.5 93.1 114.9 138.1 119.5 106.2 132.8 107.5 135.4 27.9 - High School 128.3 128.2 133.9 139.1 136.8 135.1 137.3 133.5 -3.8 - Diploma 121.2 128.8 140.3 134.1 132.7 128.5 135.9 131.4 -4.5 - Undergraduate 120.6 134.0 137.8 141.7 141.7 134.9 140.5 140.0 -0.5 - Graduate 135.2 127.6 158.1 121.9 128.7 151.4 152.7 118.1 -34.6 Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) B1. Current Income Index B2. Employment Conditions Index B3. Buying Durable Goods Conditions Index C1. Incomes Expectation Index C2. Employment Conditions Expectation Index - Graduate C3. Business Activities Expectation Index Real Sector Statistics Division 13
14. Table 5 . Household Income Allocation by Respondents Expenditure Level 2017 Descriptions A. B. C. D. E. F. Jan Feb Mar Apr Changes Mei Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) Total - Consumption 63.0 66.3 66.2 65.1 64.1 64.5 64.0 63.8 -0.2 - Loan Repayments 16.9 14.6 14.8 14.6 14.9 14.5 15.4 15.1 -0.3 - Savings 20.1 19.1 19.0 20.3 21.0 21.1 20.6 21.1 0.5 - Consumption 65.9 69.3 69.4 69.0 67.0 69.1 66.4 68.5 2.1 - Loan Repayments 14.4 11.8 11.2 11.0 10.9 11.9 14.3 11.6 -2.7 - Savings 19.7 18.9 19.4 20.1 22.1 19.0 19.3 19.9 0.6 - Consumption 64.8 66.8 67.7 65.8 65.6 66.0 65.2 65.3 0.1 - Loan Repayments 15.6 13.4 13.4 14.8 14.6 13.9 14.4 13.7 -0.7 - Savings 19.6 19.8 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 21.0 0.6 - Consumption 63.3 66.9 65.0 64.8 63.9 64.1 64.3 62.8 -1.5 - Loan Repayments 16.8 15.2 16.1 14.8 15.1 14.4 15.8 17.0 1.2 - Savings 19.8 17.9 18.8 20.4 21.0 21.4 19.8 20.1 0.3 - Consumption 60.2 65.8 64.2 65.4 63.1 63.0 61.7 61.2 -0.5 - Loan Repayments 20.1 15.0 16.6 15.5 16.9 16.1 18.6 18.5 -0.1 - Savings 19.8 19.2 19.2 19.0 19.9 20.9 19.8 20.3 0.5 - Consumption 58.3 61.1 61.7 59.4 60.9 61.6 59.7 58.9 -0.8 - Loan Repayments 20.0 18.9 19.4 18.1 17.2 17.4 18.5 19.6 1.1 - Savings 21.7 20.0 18.9 22.5 21.9 21.0 21.8 21.6 -0.2 Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million > Rp. 5 million Real Sector Statistics Division 14
15. Table 5 . Consumption, Saving and Debt Expectation 2017 Descriptions A. B. C. D. E. F. Changes Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months 113.1 114.3 113.2 112.5 111.4 110.2 111.2 113.3 2.1 - Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months 148.8 159.3 155.6 155.8 153.6 146.8 158.2 155.8 -2.4 - Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months 155.3 161.5 162.7 161.9 165.9 159.5 155.7 156.6 0.9 - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months 114.3 108.8 110.6 119.1 120.5 106.5 112.9 102.7 -10.2 - Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months 152.1 155.7 155.7 144.0 149.4 150.4 150.8 152.5 1.7 - Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months 152.0 159.0 162.2 162.3 158.8 156.3 154.0 161.7 7.7 - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months 107.8 115.5 113.3 109.3 109.0 111.2 107.0 107.4 0.4 - Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months 143.0 151.6 157.5 152.6 154.2 142.5 146.1 149.1 3.0 - Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months 154.4 162.5 160.1 161.1 167.4 160.8 155.6 157.6 2.0 - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months 112.5 114.2 113.5 115.8 114.2 110.3 109.6 119.6 10.0 - Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months 147.4 164.4 153.3 158.2 152.4 143.0 160.3 159.0 -1.3 - Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months 159.3 163.9 162.0 160.9 167.5 161.0 157.0 155.4 -1.6 - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months 114.4 112.7 114.7 112.9 119.2 116.3 113.7 109.4 -4.3 - Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months 150.9 155.3 155.8 150.1 152.0 154.6 157.4 162.4 5.0 - Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months 162.3 164.3 161.3 162.4 168.1 163.7 160.4 154.5 -5.9 - Saving Expectation Index for the next 6 months 111.7 105.5 122.0 113.5 103.3 114.0 119.7 122.6 2.9 - Debt Expectation Index for the next 6 months 158.2 164.4 153.8 157.2 156.1 146.7 168.0 161.4 -6.6 - Consumption Expectation Index in the next 3 months 161.1 153.9 166.3 169.7 166.2 164.4 157.2 150.4 -6.8 (Aug - Jul) Total Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million > Rp. 5 million Table 6. Placements of Disposable Income and House Purchases 2017 Descriptions A. Feb Mar Apr Changes Mei Jun Jul Aug (Aug - Jul) Excess Income Allocation Plan in the Next 12 Months - Saving/ Deposit 48.3 49.5 47.8 48.4 51.4 50.1 49.6 52.3 2.7 - Gold/ Jewelry 17.7 16.7 16.8 17.9 16.8 16.7 16.9 14.9 -2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.7 3.1 2.9 2.6 -0.3 23.4 22.9 23.7 22.1 20.9 21.2 22.0 21.8 -0.2 8.3 8.6 9.2 8.8 8.2 8.9 8.6 8.5 -0.1 6.1 5.8 6.3 5.3 7.2 7.6 7.6 5.4 -2.2 - Possible 28.0 31.3 29.8 30.9 29.2 26.8 29.9 28.3 -1.6 - No Desire 65.9 62.9 63.9 63.7 63.6 65.6 62.5 66.3 3.8 - Equity/ Mutual funds - Property (land, house, apartment) - Others A. Jan House Purchase/Construction Plan in the Next 12 Months - Very Possible Real Sector Statistics Division 15
16. Table 7 . Consumer Confidence Index by Region Changes 2017 Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags (Ags-Jul) 1. DKI Jakarta - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 118.2 100.2 136.3 124.0 106.3 141.6 121.1 100.6 141.6 125.8 109.9 141.7 141.4 129.6 153.1 130.6 118.7 142.6 134.1 121.8 146.5 127.4 113.3 141.5 -6.7 -8.5 -5.0 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 170.9 165.7 164.9 170.0 164.0 158.0 165.7 162.6 175.7 160.0 157.4 162.9 160.0 164.0 162.6 170.0 2.6 6.0 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 164.9 170.0 168.3 176.3 175.7 172.3 170.0 171.7 1.7 2. Bandung - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 118.8 103.8 133.8 121.1 103.3 138.9 125.0 105.0 145.0 126.7 111.6 141.9 128.8 108.3 149.3 124.1 110.2 138.0 129.4 111.6 147.2 130.3 113.5 147.0 0.9 1.9 -0.2 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 170.7 169.1 174.9 165.3 170.4 172.2 172.0 165.6 173.8 179.8 171.8 182.4 177.3 162.2 177.3 164.4 165.1 178.9 164.7 168.9 178.0 164.2 174.0 180.0 -0.5 5.1 2.0 3. Semarang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 132.3 124.7 140.0 131.9 117.4 146.4 137.9 128.0 147.8 139.1 124.1 154.0 130.1 117.7 142.6 126.2 110.6 141.8 128.3 119.8 136.8 134.1 120.6 147.7 5.8 0.8 10.9 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 178.3 186.3 174.3 181.0 155.3 168.7 170.3 151.3 137.7 171.3 140.3 185.0 149.7 166.3 166.7 186.7 17.0 20.4 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 169.7 170.0 166.0 159.0 160.3 187.7 175.3 177.7 2.4 4. Surabaya - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 113.7 105.7 121.8 120.6 114.3 126.9 119.2 111.5 126.9 123.3 114.2 132.3 123.2 115.7 130.8 125.7 125.9 125.5 128.0 119.5 136.5 122.3 112.6 131.9 -5.7 -6.9 -4.6 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 181.8 184.0 178.0 189.0 184.6 185.2 189.8 190.6 191.4 188.0 186.2 185.0 185.6 191.6 184.8 189.0 -0.8 -2.6 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 179.6 188.4 188.2 193.8 190.0 194.2 191.4 192.0 0.6 5. Medan - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 96.3 87.8 104.8 106.2 100.4 112.1 114.4 109.7 119.0 115.4 110.5 120.3 124.8 121.0 128.6 125.7 119.8 131.6 118.0 110.5 125.5 113.2 104.3 122.1 -4.8 -6.2 -3.4 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 162.5 166.7 172.7 147.0 175.6 140.6 178.4 144.1 154.6 142.5 151.4 147.6 139.7 158.7 149.2 158.7 9.5 0.0 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 162.5 151.7 148.6 141.6 150.5 151.7 153.3 153.0 -0.3 6. Palembang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 120.5 125.9 129.3 129.1 123.3 126.2 128.8 124.6 -4.2 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 114.3 126.7 118.1 133.7 120.0 138.7 112.8 145.3 107.6 139.1 108.3 144.1 120.1 137.6 115.1 134.0 -5.0 -3.6 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 183.0 188.3 191.3 176.0 180.7 189.3 173.7 173.7 183.0 178.7 178.0 184.0 187.7 171.0 180.3 174.3 176.7 172.3 164.7 180.7 189.7 165.7 172.0 185.0 1.0 -8.7 -4.7 7. Banjarmasin - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 98.5 88.3 108.6 91.8 83.1 100.6 94.4 84.4 104.3 97.1 83.2 111.0 92.6 87.2 97.9 95.3 87.8 102.8 99.4 94.2 104.6 90.9 81.5 100.3 -8.5 -12.7 -4.3 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 190.0 187.9 182.9 182.9 176.3 185.0 182.1 169.2 181.7 192.5 158.3 187.5 194.2 170.8 186.7 180.0 172.1 182.1 181.7 178.8 187.1 177.1 170.4 176.3 -4.6 -8.4 -10.8 8. Bandar Lampung - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 123.3 102.3 144.2 123.8 104.0 143.7 131.3 120.7 142.0 126.1 112.5 139.7 117.3 107.3 127.2 121.0 113.3 128.7 128.1 115.5 140.7 124.2 109.7 138.7 -3.9 -5.8 -2.0 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 182.0 193.0 180.5 186.5 191.0 183.5 187.5 164.0 198.5 169.5 181.5 162.5 170.0 179.5 165.0 187.0 -5.0 7.5 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 183.5 180.0 181.5 181.0 188.0 182.0 191.5 193.0 1.5 9. Makassar - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 123.4 120.2 122.5 117.0 122.3 119.7 134.8 136.0 136.1 135.2 117.3 122.7 105.2 104.0 111.9 109.8 6.7 5.8 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 126.7 197.5 196.0 128.0 179.0 186.0 124.8 184.0 183.5 133.7 182.5 190.5 137.0 188.0 183.0 112.0 183.0 180.5 106.3 181.5 182.5 114.0 166.5 178.5 7.7 -15.0 -4.0 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 195.5 193.0 191.0 192.0 191.5 185.5 197.5 192.5 -5.0 Real Sector Statistics Division 16
17. Changes 2017 Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags (Ags-Jul) 11. Denpasar - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 106.1 99.4 101.8 102.8 108.3 109.6 97.8 100.3 2.5 99.7 89.7 92.8 93.7 97.3 99.8 91.8 89.0 -2.8 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 112.5 188.5 109.2 166.5 110.8 166.5 111.8 173.0 119.2 179.5 119.3 174.0 103.8 155.0 111.5 166.5 7.7 11.5 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 183.0 178.0 172.0 173.0 179.0 169.0 167.5 169.0 1.5 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 140.5 178.5 185.0 180.5 187.5 184.5 180.5 171.5 -9.0 12. Padang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 98.3 90.0 103.2 99.8 101.9 105.3 93.6 105.3 11.7 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 94.3 102.2 171.0 84.8 95.2 180.0 101.7 104.7 166.5 94.3 105.3 176.0 98.7 105.2 176.0 103.2 107.3 170.0 93.2 94.0 155.5 104.3 106.2 159.0 11.1 12.2 3.5 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 190.5 195.5 181.5 196.0 175.0 186.5 174.0 180.0 176.0 184.0 166.0 177.5 168.5 176.5 179.5 178.5 11.0 2.0 13. Pontianak - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 124.7 124.7 124.7 131.9 126.8 137.0 132.1 128.8 135.3 133.8 128.2 139.3 126.3 117.0 135.5 127.1 121.7 132.5 118.3 115.5 121.0 121.3 120.7 121.8 3.0 5.2 0.8 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 163.5 167.0 174.5 146.5 151.0 167.0 143.0 153.5 166.5 161.5 140.0 147.5 145.5 145.5 151.0 136.0 142.5 158.0 146.0 152.0 163.0 135.0 137.5 137.0 -11.0 -14.5 -26.0 14. Manado - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) 124.3 122.2 131.8 125.5 127.4 133.5 114.7 115.0 117.5 116.0 126.4 125.7 128.8 129.2 126.6 128.5 -2.2 -0.7 - Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 126.5 168.0 186.5 138.2 158.5 189.5 121.3 191.0 193.0 114.3 171.0 163.0 119.0 180.5 166.0 127.2 146.0 179.0 128.5 137.5 193.5 124.7 158.5 192.0 -3.8 21.0 -1.5 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 191.0 187.0 196.5 196.5 194.5 188.0 191.5 185.5 -6.0 15. Mataram - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 120.3 110.1 105.8 117.1 112.0 109.9 115.0 107.8 -7.2 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead 109.5 131.0 186.0 104.5 115.7 181.5 99.2 112.3 189.0 107.0 127.2 186.0 105.0 119.0 194.5 106.7 113.2 166.5 103.7 126.3 176.5 102.3 113.3 187.5 -1.4 -13.0 11.0 - Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 195.5 189.5 187.5 182.5 172.5 184.0 174.5 176.5 165.0 167.5 171.5 175.0 168.0 174.0 171.0 171.0 3.0 -3.0 16. Pangkal Pinang - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 102.6 91.2 114.0 101.5 90.7 112.3 101.9 99.7 104.2 96.1 89.3 102.8 97.3 89.8 104.7 104.3 100.2 108.3 124.4 122.7 126.2 121.8 123.8 119.7 -2.6 1.1 -6.5 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 182.0 175.0 171.5 170.5 170.5 184.5 168.0 166.5 155.5 172.0 163.5 162.0 177.0 153.0 154.5 168.5 157.5 166.5 166.0 156.0 159.5 164.5 149.5 175.0 -1.5 -6.5 15.5 17. Ambon - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 138.6 147.8 148.7 143.5 129.4 116.7 119.9 122.9 3.0 - Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 117.7 159.5 187.8 194.1 128.1 167.5 184.3 194.1 127.9 169.5 185.7 196.1 127.8 159.3 178.9 183.8 111.1 147.8 195.0 190.5 89.4 144.1 196.1 187.3 92.4 147.3 189.7 189.7 88.3 157.4 175.7 194.7 -4.1 10.1 -14.0 5.0 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 200.0 199.5 199.0 197.1 197.5 196.6 191.6 198.5 6.9 18. Banten - Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) 100.3 93.2 107.3 79.1 74.3 83.8 122.3 100.8 143.8 117.2 111.8 122.5 124.7 127.2 122.2 110.4 111.0 109.8 108.3 110.8 105.7 107.3 107.7 107.0 -1.0 -3.1 1.3 - Price expectations index for 3 months ahead Price expectations index for 6 months ahead 128.5 192.5 188.0 193.0 179.0 165.5 187.5 187.0 187.5 187.5 169.0 168.0 192.5 192.0 175.0 175.0 -17.5 -17.0 - Price expectations index for 12 months ahead 196.5 195.0 186.0 188.0 187.5 171.5 192.5 175.0 -17.5 Real Sector Statistics Division 17
18. Table 7 . Profile Respondent 2017 Descriptions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags - Male 45.6 49.0 47.6 46.3 46.4 46.5 44.9 46.8 - Female 54.4 51.0 52.4 53.7 53.6 53.5 55.1 53.2 - Rp. 1 million - Rp. 2 million 22.9 21.8 21.9 23.2 21.1 21.8 22.2 22.4 - Rp. 2,1 million - Rp. 3 million 27.4 28.0 26.8 27.8 30.3 29.1 28.2 29.0 - Rp. 3,1 million - Rp. 4 million 22.4 23.8 24.7 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.4 22.7 - Rp. 4,1 million - Rp. 5 million 10.2 9.8 10.7 10.7 10.3 10.1 10.5 9.6 - Over than Rp. 5 million 17.1 16.5 15.9 15.3 15.2 15.9 15.7 16.3 - 20-30 years 28.8 26.8 30.0 32.5 33.2 33.4 31.7 32.5 - 31-40 years 31.4 32.1 30.3 29.7 29.7 31.7 31.4 30.9 - 41-50 years 24.7 24.2 24.1 22.8 22.3 22.0 23.0 22.9 - 51-60 years 11.3 13.3 11.2 11.3 11.3 10.2 11.2 10.7 3.8 3.6 4.3 3.6 3.6 2.7 2.7 3.0 - High School 61.7 66.0 62.6 64.5 62.6 64.0 65.3 61.9 - Diploma 10.5 8.2 11.1 10.9 10.2 9.8 9.5 9.7 - University 24.6 23.3 23.4 21.9 24.5 23.4 23.3 25.7 3.2 2.4 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.0 2.7 Gender Household Expenses Ages - 60 years above Educational Level - Graduate/Post Graduate Real Sector Statistics Division 18