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Indonesia: Banking Survey Quarter IV 2020

IM Insights
By IM Insights
5 years ago
Indonesia: Banking Survey Quarter IV 2020

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  1. ‘ Quarter IV - 2020 New Loans Lending Policy Credit Growth Banking Industry Predicting Stronger New Loan Growth in Q1/2021 The latest Banking Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia indicated faster growth of new loans disbursed by the banking industry in the first quarter of 2021, with the weighted net balance (WNB) increasing to 49.4% from 25.4% in the fourth quarter of 2020. Respondents expected working capital loans, followed by investment loans and consumer loans to boost growth of new loans disbursed by the banking industry. Meanwhile, credit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 was restrained, impacted by investment loans. Respondents predicted less tight lending policy in the first quarter of 2021, as confirmed by a decline in the Lending Standards Index to 0.4% from 3.2% in the previous period, with the banks focusing on aspects of credit line and loan maturity. The latest survey also revealed how respondents are optimistic concerning credit growth in 2021, predicting 7.3% (yoy) in line with monetary and economic conditions as well as manageable credit risk. A. Conditions in Quarter IV – 2020 The banking industry reported a period of positive new loan growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. The latest Banking Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia revealed a period of positive new loan growth (qtq) in the fourth quarter of 2020, despite moderating on the previous period, as reflected by a weighted net balance (WNB) of demand for new loans of 25.4% (Graph 1). By loan type, respondents confirmed positive growth of new working capital loans and consumer loans, with a WNB of 25.6% and 0.9% respectively. In contrast, new investment loans experienced a decline, as confirmed by a negative WNB of -10.6% (Graph 2). Graph 1 Banking Survey New Loans Growth Graph 2 Loan Growth by Type of Usage 1
  2. By sector , the banking industry reported the strongest growth of new loans allocated to Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry as well as Transportation, Storage and Communication with a WNB of 29.3% respectively (Graph 4). Graph 3 Consumer Loan Growth by Type Graph 4 The Highest Growth of Three Economic Sectors B. Predictions for Quarter I – 2021 Predictions for Loans The banking industry predicted stronger growth of new loans in the first quarter of 2021. The banking industry predicted stronger quarterly growth (qtq) of new loans in the first three months of 2021, as signalled by a WNB of 49.4%, up from 25.4% in the fourth quarter of 2020 and compared with 23.7% in the same period of 2020 (Graph 1). The latest growth prediction indicates improving financing performance in the first quarter of 2021. The banking industry confirmed that working capital loans would still be the main priority in terms of disbursing new loans in the first quarter of 2021, followed by investment loans and consumer loans. In terms of consumer loans, housing loans will remain the primary focus, followed by multipurpose loans and automotive loans (Table 3). Bank Lending Policy The banking industry is not expected to tighten lending policy in the first quarter of 2021. Consistent with faster growth of new loans, the banking industry is not expected to tighten lending policy in the first quarter of 2021, as confirmed by a decrease in the Lending Standards Index to 0.4% from 3.2% in the previous period (Graph 5). Graph 5 Banking Survey Lending Standard Index Graph 6 Lending Standard Index by Type of Loan 2
  3. Furthermore , the banking industry is not expected to tighten lending policy on investment loans, working capital loans or MSME loans (Graph 6). Meanwhile, the banks proposed looser lending policy primarily through credit lines, loan maturity, administration fees and document requirements (Graph 8). Graph 7 % Respondents who Change the Lending Policy Graph 8 Bank Lending Policy Predictions for Deposits The banking industry predicted moderating deposit growth in the first quarter of 2021. The banking industry predicted moderating deposit growth in the first quarter of 2021, as indicated by a significant decline in the corresponding WNB to 17.1% from 88.0% in the previous period (Graph 9). Moderation was expected to affect demand deposits and savings deposits, with respective decreases in the WNB from 85.2% and 89.0% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 56.2% and 43.7% in the first quarter of 2021. In addition, respondents anticipated negative term deposit growth with a WNB of -8.2%, down notably from 74.2% in the previous period (Graph 10). Graph 9 Prediction for Deposits Growth Graph 10 Prediction for Deposits Growth by Category C. Predictions for 2021 Predictions for Loans The banking industry predicted credit growth in 2021 at 7.3% (yoy). Banking Survey The banking industry predicted positive credit growth in 2021 at 7.3% (yoy), improving from the 1.4% (yoy) realised in 2020 (as of November) (Graph 11). Survey respondents reported that optimism in terms of monetary and economic conditions, coupled with manageable credit risk, will support lending performance in 2021. 3
  4. Predictions for Deposits The banking industry predicted stronger deposit growth in 2021 , as reflected by a WNB of 68.9%, despite retreating from 88.0% in the previous year (Graph 12). Such optimism was fuelled by interest rate factors and liquidity conditions in the banking system. Graph 11 Banking Survey Predictions for Loans Growth Graph 12 Predictions for Deposits Growth 4
  5. Table 1 Classification of Demand for New Loans (WNB, %) Type of Loans Based on Usage Consumer Loans Loans in Detail III IV I 2019 II III IV I 2020 II III IV I II III IV 25,6 51,9 95,6 71,1 84,3 71,9 90,2 69,8 77,0 68,2 61,0 65,8 65,0 16,7 (19,5) 68,1 Investment Loans 65,9 40,8 69,8 84,2 73,5 73,8 68,9 83,1 74,7 77,3 63,2 70,3 15,1 (75,1) 28,6 (10,6) Consumer Loans 40,5 65,7 20,5 35,0 16,6 36,6 26,8 28,0 30,4 54,3 45,9 75,8 (7,6) (68,6) 42,7 0,9 Housing/Property 49,1 70,7 21,5 60,3 31,1 42,9 66,7 54,1 30,2 29,3 24,3 52,1 3,3 (38,7) 64,7 48,9 Motor Vehicles 18,6 0,3 8,0 37,7 21,9 40,3 20,9 6,4 6,0 24,4 4,2 (59,3) 15,8 (25,2) Credit Card 10,2 9,1 (7,0) 46,3 7,7 47,2 45,4 73,6 21,3 39,3 52,7 34,2 18,3 (70,0) (40,9) Multi Purpose Loans 21,1 20,0 29,1 30,4 22,4 36,7 37,0 32,5 35,4 31,7 29,1 49,8 (5,3) (58,9) (36,6) (21,0) Non-collateral loans 15,6 29,4 (0,1) 23,8 0,8 (4,1) 3,3 40,6 12,7 16,9 32,2 33,1 (4,7) (48,0) 28,8 (5,1) Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry 39,1 49,5 33,9 59,6 52,4 73,4 52,3 76,4 40,2 43,1 (4,5) 62,1 24,8 (60,8) 49,5 29,3 Fishing 14,8 25,7 36,1 37,4 46,6 38,7 47,5 41,0 (8,2) 51,2 3,6 7,3 33,5 (61,9) 17,7 11,4 (19,7) (17,0) (29,1) (20,0) (23,5) 29,0 35,7 26,6 (0,7) 11,5 18,8 34,4 (26,6) (27,5) (7,9) 2,1 18,9 (11,7) (2,3) Manufacturing 54,7 45,7 70,2 64,0 45,8 62,6 59,5 58,2 26,0 55,2 49,3 21,9 14,6 (30,9) 8,3 24,2 Electricity, Gas and Water 15,9 37,2 37,4 53,5 22,5 60,4 80,7 50,6 35,1 10,7 30,4 22,1 10,1 (16,8) 28,0 9,3 Construction 9,6 22,5 42,2 80,8 54,6 52,7 68,6 66,0 26,9 67,9 35,9 52,2 (1,5) (31,4) 16,8 5,8 Wholesale and Retail Trade 4,9 66,8 56,1 63,3 44,1 67,9 64,0 68,5 12,3 39,5 17,2 28,7 (6,9) (66,1) 2,1 16,1 32,0 14,9 35,6 55,0 47,0 52,6 50,7 59,6 3,8 38,3 23,1 25,9 0,1 (58,1) (4,2) 0,4 29,2 46,8 40,9 53,9 36,1 47,2 38,9 58,8 1,4 46,8 27,0 33,5 9,5 (19,2) 3,2 29,3 (7,8) 7,0 (2,8) 20,9 (10,3) 27,0 20,3 50,9 (2,7) 19,8 8,2 27,3 13,6 (29,0) (8,9) (6,3) 24,1 30,0 25,2 11,5 40,5 36,0 33,1 17,4 47,2 43,4 58,6 17,2 (22,2) 6,0 12,2 (8,5) (10,2) (0,5) (8,3) (39,2) (19,8) (10,5) (17,8) 3,1 10,6 12,7 19,1 (3,6) (38,8) (36,9) 28,1 24,0 (19,4) 56,8 (2,1) (63,0) (23,7) 7,0 Accomodation, Food and Beverage Services Activities Transportation, Storage and Communication Financial Intermediaries Group of Debtors 2018 II Working Capital Loans Mining and Quarrying Economic Sectors 2017 I Real Estate, Leasing and Company Services Activities Government Administrative, Defence and Compulsory Social Security Educational Services Health Services and Social Work Activities Public Services, Social Cultural, Entertainment and Personal Act. Personal Services Serving Households International Agencies and Other Extra International Organization Activities that Undefined Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (Communal Business Credit) Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (Non Communal Business Credit) Non Micro Small and Medium Enterprises Export Loans Usage Import Loans Orientation Other Loans TOTAL Banking Survey 0,0 31,0 (9,2) (17,4) 2,0 (16,7) 23,1 25,7 27,8 (9,0) (2,9) (5,2) 8,6 0,7 11,6 41,4 36,5 46,4 19,1 (16,2) 35,1 54,8 (5,1) (26,9) 49,6 (0,2) 22,5 38,4 27,1 (1,1) 20,8 23,8 5,7 20,5 (0,7) 7,9 29,7 16,1 (12,8) (12,5) 5,6 13,9 (6,0) (28,7) (9,4) 19,5 0,5 4,0 22,7 (5,8) 6,8 0,2 37,7 (17,2) (0,4) 2,5 (3,2) 0,5 (5,4) (11,0) 32,9 12,5 3,0 3,4 (8,7) (8,2) (3,6) 18,0 1,9 (0,9) (4,2) 8,3 (25,9) (45,7) 35,7 43,7 23,4 34,4 (0,7) (20,9) (19,6) (0,9) 1,3 (2,5) (4,9) 9,3 (7,0) (66,5) (6,2) (8,9) 32,9 36,0 40,0 41,4 48,8 42,8 44,6 53,6 65,0 65,7 42,8 56,8 22,8 (47,9) 54,9 36,1 24,2 40,3 31,4 71,6 63,0 69,7 59,5 74,9 31,5 46,5 23,6 67,4 3,5 (83,0) 66,0 25,8 37,2 54,8 29,7 77,7 46,6 81,2 75,5 79,1 45,3 72,9 36,4 61,3 27,0 (45,8) (12,8) 10,9 28,5 13,8 27,8 56,6 29,7 28,0 56,8 45,2 35,0 47,6 58,8 48,3 47,6 (39,9) 56,6 14,9 21,9 20,9 7,4 8,5 32,8 14,0 11,4 26,9 53,1 44,2 (0,4) 26,8 (61,0) (2,9) (20,4) 35,9 83,0 61,2 64,9 65,3 79,3 65,6 76,2 40,1 70,4 55,8 57,9 24,1 (68,2) (17,4) 52,9 83,4 77,9 94,3 75,9 90,3 21,2 71,7 57,8 78,3 68,3 70,6 23,7 (33,9) 50,6 2,8 7,1 25,4 5
  6. Table 2 Percentage of Respondents Who Have New Loans Realization Below the Target (Deviation >5%) Type of Loans Based on Usage Consumer Loans Loans in Detail Group of Debtors 2018 II III IV I 2019 II III IV I 2020 II III IV I II III IV Working Capital Loans 37,5 37,5 42,5 22,5 22,5 20,0 22,5 25,0 32,5 32,5 42,5 40,0 42,5 34,2 44,4 47,2 Investment Loans 42,5 45,0 47,5 40,0 25,0 25,0 35,0 22,5 27,5 25,0 32,5 35,0 30,0 31,6 44,4 47,2 Consumer Loans 50,0 35,0 35,0 30,0 35,0 27,5 22,5 22,5 22,5 20,0 35,0 17,5 15,0 18,4 25,0 27,8 Housing/Property 35,0 27,5 30,0 30,0 20,0 20,0 25,0 22,5 20,0 27,5 30,0 30,0 30,0 23,7 25,0 19,4 Motor Vehicles 25,0 27,5 27,5 22,5 22,5 17,5 17,5 15,0 20,0 20,0 20,0 25,0 20,0 13,2 19,4 19,4 Credit Card 15,0 15,0 15,0 17,5 5,0 12,5 12,5 10,0 15,0 17,5 12,5 12,5 10,0 18,4 5,6 11,1 Multi Purpose Loans 2,5 22,5 22,5 22,5 27,5 22,5 20,0 10,0 10,0 12,5 15,0 10,0 7,5 13,2 25,0 25,0 Non-collateral loans 12,5 22,5 17,5 17,5 15,0 12,5 10,0 12,5 5,0 10,0 15,0 5,0 2,5 5,3 8,3 16,7 Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry 22,5 12,5 42,5 30,0 25,0 20,0 30,0 27,5 27,5 32,5 27,5 32,5 25,0 21,1 38,9 25,0 Fishing 20,0 22,5 15,0 12,5 17,5 17,5 15,0 17,5 17,5 22,5 22,5 22,5 15,0 21,1 22,2 22,2 Mining and Quarrying 32,5 32,5 32,5 17,5 27,5 22,5 22,5 27,5 20,0 20,0 25,0 22,5 25,0 28,9 27,8 38,9 Manufacturing 27,5 22,5 37,5 30,0 25,0 32,5 32,5 25,0 30,0 30,0 27,5 32,5 37,5 28,9 27,8 22,2 Electricity, Gas and Water 22,5 37,5 27,5 12,5 25,0 15,0 17,5 25,0 15,0 17,5 25,0 27,5 22,5 23,7 25,0 16,7 Construction 30,0 25,0 25,0 17,5 25,0 22,5 30,0 27,5 30,0 25,0 17,5 25,0 25,0 34,2 38,9 50,0 Wholesale and Retail Trade 25,0 12,5 25,0 12,5 22,5 25,0 32,5 22,5 17,5 25,0 25,0 25,0 35,0 28,9 33,3 30,6 27,5 22,5 30,0 30,0 22,5 20,0 22,5 25,0 27,5 25,0 27,5 20,0 27,5 26,3 22,2 13,9 42,5 40,0 32,5 25,0 25,0 22,5 27,5 20,0 30,0 27,5 30,0 37,5 25,0 31,6 30,6 19,4 32,5 27,5 27,5 22,5 17,5 12,5 25,0 40,0 30,0 25,0 30,0 22,5 20,0 23,7 25,0 16,7 27,5 25,0 30,0 27,5 25,0 22,5 40,0 25,0 22,5 17,5 37,5 27,5 25,0 23,7 36,1 22,2 - 10,0 5,0 2,5 5,0 5,0 7,5 5,0 2,5 10,0 10,0 10,0 10,0 10,5 11,1 11,1 17,5 20,0 22,5 17,5 15,0 12,5 27,5 20,0 22,5 12,5 20,0 17,5 27,5 23,7 16,7 11,1 20,0 17,5 20,0 20,0 10,0 17,5 20,0 12,5 22,5 17,5 25,0 30,0 32,5 21,1 11,1 16,7 17,5 15,0 22,5 22,5 25,0 17,5 15,0 17,5 15,0 22,5 20,0 20,0 17,5 15,8 19,4 19,4 25,0 20,0 15,0 12,5 10,0 5,0 15,0 10,0 12,5 17,5 17,5 12,5 20,0 15,8 16,7 13,9 2,5 7,5 5,0 2,5 2,5 5,0 7,5 7,5 7,5 2,5 2,5 - - - 2,8 - 12,5 5,0 12,5 12,5 10,0 12,5 7,5 7,5 10,0 7,5 2,5 7,5 7,5 15,8 13,9 8,3 5,0 15,0 15,0 17,5 10,0 5,0 10,0 5,0 - 7,5 7,5 7,5 7,5 5,3 5,6 13,9 37,5 37,5 37,5 27,5 27,5 22,5 27,5 25,0 32,5 25,0 35,0 40,0 30,0 26,3 22,2 19,4 27,5 27,5 30,0 15,0 15,0 22,5 25,0 17,5 17,5 25,0 27,5 22,5 22,5 34,2 36,1 38,9 22,5 25,0 25,0 22,5 15,0 17,5 17,5 17,5 17,5 12,5 20,0 15,0 10,0 15,8 22,2 19,4 20,0 17,5 27,5 17,5 12,5 10,0 12,5 12,5 17,5 15,0 17,5 17,5 22,5 18,4 25,0 25,0 25,0 15,0 22,5 15,0 15,0 20,0 20,0 20,0 10,0 10,0 25,0 25,0 30,0 26,3 33,3 38,9 77,3 82,5 77,5 62,5 57,5 30,0 40,0 50,0 50,0 45,0 65,0 57,5 60,0 57,9 72,2 72,2 Accomodation, Food and Baverage Services Activities Transportation, Storage and Communication Financial Intermediaries Economic Sectors 2017 I Real Estate, Leasing and Company Services Activities Government Administrative, Defence and Compulsory Social Security Educational Services Health Services and Social Work Activities Public Services, Social Cultural, Entertainment and Personal Act. Personal Services Serving Households International Agencies and Other Extra International Organization Activities that Undefined Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (Communal Business Credit) Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (Non Communal Business Credit) Non Micro Small and Medium Enterprises Export Loans Usage Import Loans Orientation Other Loans Total Banking Survey 6
  7. Table 3 Period Priority of New Loans Disbursement Type of Loans Based on Usage Consumer Loans Loans in Detail 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I Working Capital Loans 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Investment Loans 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Consumer Loans 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Housing /Property 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Motor Vehicles 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Credit Card Multi Purpose Loans Non-collateral loans 3 3 Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry Fishing Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, Gas and Water Construction Wholesale and Retail Trade Economic Estimation Sectors per Quarter Group of Debtors Accomodation, Food and Baverage Services Activities Transportation, Storage and Communication Financial Intermediaries Real Estate, Leasing and Company Services Activities Government Administrative, Defence and Compulsory Social Security Educational Services Health Services and Social Work Activities Public Services, Social Cultural, Entertainment and Personal Act. Personal Services Serving Households International Agencies and Other Extra International Organization Activities that Undefined Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (Communal Business Credit) Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (Non Communal Business Credit) Non Micro Small and Medium Enterprises Export Loans Usage Import Loans Orientation Other Loans Banking Survey 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7
  8. Table 4 Period Prediction for Deposits Growth (Weight Net Balance, WNB) Group of Bank Large Banks Medium Banks Estimation per Quarter Type of Deposit Total Banking Survey 2018 II III IV I Demand Deposit 94,0 89,1 87,0 93,0 25,0 Saving Deposit 95,6 91,6 83,5 96,6 Time Deposit 88,7 88,1 93,3 88,9 Total 89,5 90,4 89,2 Demand Deposit 51,6 14,4 Saving Deposit 80,4 33,2 Time Deposit 54,0 Total 61,3 Demand Deposit Small Banks 2017 I Saving Deposit II 2019 2020 III IV I II III IV 8,0 -2,7 89,7 30,4 90,3 86,9 81,6 30,1 58,1 87,4 58,5 46,7 80,1 91,7 18,5 59,4 12,0 94,8 56,3 18,1 44,1 91,2 27,1 89,0 88,0 93,4 53,8 95,5 87,7 54,6 69,5 65,6 89,3 80,6 100,0 68,1 83,7 56,6 71,6 53,7 89,3 91,8 89,5 60,8 47,3 88,9 81,9 89,3 77,5 100,0 19,8 37,3 100,0 92,2 100,0 100,0 100,0 I III IV I 6,8 27,1 38,2 86,3 56,8 88,8 75,0 85,8 60,3 89,6 43,4 79,8 -4,3 41,4 67,4 75,2 -8,9 73,9 10,2 44,3 80,8 88,9 16,7 57,6 46,0 -18,3 54,5 73,0 57,8 15,4 16,7 91,0 86,0 46,4 78,6 77,8 62,7 51,1 63,8 89,5 37,5 -8,2 -1,5 73,5 53,6 42,1 13,0 38,5 69,3 91,8 52,1 38,4 87,8 29,0 67,1 28,9 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 N/A 70,6 0,0 2021 II 40,5 N/A N/A N/A 0,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Time Deposit 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Total 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Demand Deposit 93,4 88,0 86,4 92,5 25,5 9,6 -1,1 88,2 30,6 89,7 86,1 79,8 7,7 27,8 39,4 85,2 56,2 Saving Deposit 95,3 90,7 83,5 88,9 30,6 58,0 87,4 58,0 46,6 80,3 91,6 88,0 75,1 85,7 60,9 89,0 43,7 Time Deposit 88,2 87,7 92,5 95,9 19,5 60,0 13,2 93,1 55,8 18,5 43,2 78,3 -2,8 41,6 64,8 74,2 -8,2 Total 89,1 89,4 88,3 91,4 60,0 89,2 88,3 91,7 53,1 95,4 87,1 73,3 11,6 44,0 80,8 88,0 17,1 8
  9. Table 5 Period Prediction for Funds and Loans Interest Rates 2018 2020 II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Cost of Funds 6 ,29% 6,20% 5,94% 5,77% 5,70% 5,51% 5,67% 5,88% 6,02% 6,25% 5,97% 5,87% 5,54% 5,60% 5,10% 4,70% Cost of Loanable Funds 9,68% 9,48% 9,65% 9,24% 9,16% 9,07% 8,92% 9,28% 9,38% 9,57% 9,16% 8,92% 8,64% 8,29% 7,92% 7,47% Cost of Funds 1,45% 1,49% 1,53% 1,58% 1,63% 1,71% 1,76% 1,96% 2,06% 2,20% 2,13% 2,00% 2,09% 2,22% 2,07% 1,46% Cost of Loanable Funds 3,26% 3,45% 3,83% 3,77% 3,57% 3,45% 3,27% 3,41% 3,72% 4,25% 3,62% 3,78% 3,52% 3,30% 3,28% 2,76% USD Working Capital Loans Based on Investment Loans Usage Consumer Loans Realization per Working Capital Loans Quarter Based on Investment Loans Usage Consumer Loans Rupiah 12,50% 11,95% 12,18% 12,29% 11,81% 11,43% 11,44% 11,64% 11,37% 11,51% 11,38% 11,37% 11,21% 10,80% 10,53% 10,50% 12,62% 12,40% 12,40% 11,87% 12,12% 11,90% 11,62% 11,81% 11,55% 11,60% 11,58% 11,39% 11,27% 10,81% 10,55% 10,74% 14,60% 14,81% 13,75% 15,16% 14,58% 14,14% 13,28% 13,93% 12,85% 12,96% 13,18% 13,04% 12,94% 12,96% 12,28% 12,76% 5,95% 6,37% 5,96% 6,01% 6,16% 6,02% 5,87% 6,28% 6,32% 6,43% 6,10% 6,17% 6,12% 5,97% 5,40% 5,12% 6,01% 6,21% 6,60% 6,49% 6,43% 6,09% 6,38% 6,77% 6,28% 6,51% 6,18% 6,14% 6,12% 5,88% 5,40% 5,00% 7,64% 8,13% 7,94% 7,65% 7,01% 7,43% 7,48% 8,37% 7,26% 7,64% 6,91% 6,98% 8,31% 7,43% 6,76% 6,88% Housing/ Property 12,13% 11,95% 11,63% 11,83% 11,25% 11,60% 11,10% 11,37% 11,39% 11,36% 11,30% 11,11% 11,07% 11,13% 10,55% 10,40% Motor Vehicles 12,81% 12,60% 12,55% 13,29% 12,68% 12,73% 12,17% 12,21% 12,04% 12,38% 11,36% 11,29% 11,10% 11,11% 9,99% Credit Card 30,66% 26,58% 26,90% 22,77% 26,92% 24,63% 25,13% 24,13% 24,98% 23,38% 25,42% 25,54% 25,68% 24,32% 24,04% 23,24% Multi Purpose Loans 13,82% 14,80% 13,97% 15,18% 14,39% 14,38% 13,30% 14,27% 12,81% 12,37% 12,70% 12,68% 12,35% 12,61% 11,87% 11,85% Non-collateral loans 20,09% 21,69% 20,58% 21,07% 20,54% 20,11% 20,47% 19,63% 21,13% 20,01% 20,76% 20,88% 20,23% 20,47% 22,16% 19,27% 2017 2018 2019 10,88% 2020 2021 Type of Type of Fund and Loans Currency I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I Cost of Funds 6,33% 6,29% 6,20% 5,90% 5,77% 5,74% 5,62% 5,81% 5,93% 6,02% 6,15% 5,90% 5,79% 5,46% 5,38% 5,21% 4,71% Cost of Loanable Funds 9,75% 9,64% 9,47% 9,47% 9,26% 9,19% 9,16% 9,07% 9,35% 9,45% 9,51% 9,09% 8,81% 8,44% 8,20% 8,13% 7,55% Cost of Funds 1,48% 1,49% 1,54% 1,56% 1,69% 1,76% 1,83% 1,87% 2,05% 2,10% 2,66% 2,09% 1,95% 1,94% 1,85% 1,70% 1,35% Cost of Loanable Funds 3,50% 3,31% 3,48% 3,84% 3,88% 3,74% 3,62% 3,44% 3,47% 3,83% 4,34% 3,58% 3,56% 3,51% 3,26% 3,29% 2,76% 12,51% 12,22% 11,95% 12,18% 12,24% 11,78% 11,51% 11,44% 11,69% 11,38% 11,49% 11,37% 11,38% 11,17% 10,72% 10,75% 10,67% 12,77% 12,26% 12,40% 12,38% 11,89% 12,18% 12,02% 11,66% 11,84% 11,51% 11,68% 11,51% 11,48% 11,22% 10,75% 10,62% 10,79% 15,36% 14,54% 14,74% 13,99% 15,08% 14,50% 14,15% 13,36% 13,96% 12,91% 13,25% 13,15% 13,03% 12,93% 12,93% 12,43% 12,89% 6,16% 5,96% 6,40% 5,94% 6,03% 6,17% 6,10% 5,87% 6,11% 6,28% 6,27% 6,08% 6,13% 6,00% 5,87% 5,54% 5,33% 6,21% 6,04% 6,25% 6,45% 6,47% 6,43% 6,17% 6,39% 6,80% 6,26% 6,32% 6,16% 6,12% 6,01% 5,79% 5,45% 5,11% 7,36% 7,70% 8,19% 7,29% 7,80% 7,03% 7,50% 7,23% 7,98% 7,23% 7,64% 6,86% 6,96% 8,28% 7,45% 6,71% 6,86% Housing/ Property 12,22% 12,08% 11,92% 11,61% 11,78% 11,49% 11,65% 11,17% 11,50% 11,22% 11,43% 11,26% 11,02% 10,98% 11,08% 10,73% 10,60% Motor Vehicles 13,06% 12,68% 12,64% 12,47% 13,26% 12,91% 12,93% 12,67% 12,39% 12,07% 12,42% 11,29% 11,20% 10,94% 10,99% 10,34% 11,27% Credit Card 30,61% 30,35% 26,35% 26,90% 22,59% 26,55% 24,31% 25,14% 23,80% 24,99% 23,62% 25,42% 25,51% 25,64% 24,12% 24,00% 23,21% Multi Purpose Loans 14,09% 13,79% 14,80% 13,79% 15,01% 14,37% 14,07% 13,57% 14,68% 12,77% 12,74% 12,66% 12,61% 12,27% 12,55% 11,90% 11,96% Non-collateral loans 20,52% 20,31% 19,51% 21,20% 21,03% 20,53% 20,54% 19,75% 18,91% 21,22% 19,71% 20,74% 20,90% 20,25% 19,72% 18,96% 19,41% Rupiah USD Working Capital Loans Based on Investment Loans Usage Consumer Loans Estimation per Working Capital Loans Quarter Based on Investment Loans Usage Consumer Loans Rupiah 2017 Period 2019 I Rupiah Period 2017 Type of Type of Fund and Loans Currency Type of Type of Fund and Loans Currency I II 2018 III IV Estimation 2017 Rupiah USD Cost of Funds II 2019 III IV Estimation 2018 I II 2020 III IV Estimation 2019 I II III IV Estimation Estimation 2020 2021 6,30% 6,60% 5,94% 5,75% 5,78% 5,67% 5,80% 5,98% 6,00% 6,10% 5,81% 5,66% 5,44% 5,38% 5,22% 4,71% Cost of Loanable Funds 9,62% 9,47% 9,59% 9,21% 9,21% 9,17% 9,00% 9,36% 9,42% 9,47% 9,09% 8,86% 8,41% 8,15% 8,07% 7,44% Cost of Funds 1,54% 1,58% 1,55% 1,78% 1,83% 1,88% 1,90% 2,12% 2,14% 2,25% 2,09% 1,96% 1,95% 1,88% 1,72% 1,35% Cost of Loanable Funds 3,33% 3,51% 3,86% 4,25% 3,89% 3,67% 3,43% 3,51% 3,85% 4,34% 3,61% 3,55% 3,49% 3,30% 3,32% 2,75% Working Capital Loans Based on Investment Loans Usage Consumer Loans Whole Year Working Capital Loans Estimation Based on Investment Loans Usage Consumer Loans Rupiah I 12,18% 11,93% 12,18% 12,17% 11,80% 11,50% 11,43% 11,70% 11,38% 11,54% 11,36% 11,22% 11,13% 10,72% 10,73% 10,66% 12,24% 12,27% 12,41% 11,75% 12,16% 12,03% 11,64% 11,82% 11,48% 11,61% 11,52% 11,28% 11,09% 10,73% 10,63% 10,79% 14,53% 14,79% 14,04% 15,10% 14,53% 14,18% 13,36% 14,04% 12,90% 13,46% 12,47% 12,91% 12,95% 12,98% 12,46% 12,94% 5,98% 6,56% 5,96% 6,05% 6,19% 6,14% 5,87% 6,14% 6,28% 6,35% 6,08% 6,15% 5,99% 5,90% 5,55% 5,34% 6,04% 6,28% 6,48% 6,50% 6,46% 6,21% 6,39% 6,82% 6,27% 6,54% 6,15% 6,13% 5,97% 5,83% 5,50% 5,12% 7,54% 8,21% 7,32% 8,25% 7,11% 7,53% 7,23% 7,98% 7,30% 7,64% 7,34% 6,91% 8,23% 7,41% 6,71% 6,86% Housing/ Property 11,97% 11,82% 11,61% 11,76% 11,50% 11,64% 11,14% 11,54% 11,39% 11,37% 11,26% 11,00% 10,96% 11,07% 10,72% 10,61% Motor Vehicles 12,63% 12,63% 12,47% 13,24% 12,70% 12,93% 12,66% 12,61% 12,10% 12,42% 11,31% 11,28% 10,96% 11,04% 10,38% 11,27% Credit Card 29,02% 26,35% 26,90% 22,57% 26,57% 24,33% 25,14% 23,80% 24,96% 22,76% 25,42% 25,51% 25,64% 24,12% 24,00% 23,21% Multi Purpose Loans 13,75% 14,43% 13,61% 14,72% 14,17% 14,09% 13,38% 14,40% 12,80% 12,84% 12,74% 12,72% 12,27% 12,57% 11,96% 12,00% Non-collateral loans 20,32% 19,55% 21,17% 20,65% 20,55% 20,56% 19,81% 18,89% 21,23% 19,78% 20,72% 19,97% 20,24% 19,71% 18,98% 19,39% Banking Survey 9
  10. METHODOLOGY The Banking Survey (previously the Bank Loan Survey) has been conducted quarterly since Quarter III-1999 in order to collate early information concerning banking policy in the disbursement of credit, funding and setting interest rates, the supply and demand of new loans as well as to collate comprehensive banking information that is unavailable through the Monthly Reports of Commercial Banks (LBU). The latest survey is conducted in December 2020. The sample is selected using purposive sampling of 40 commercial banks with head offices in Jakarta and a credit share accounting for around 80% of the national total. Data is processed using the net weighted balance method, namely that the answers provided by respondents are multiplied by their respective credit weighting (totalling 100%), with the difference between the percentage of respondents whose answers increased and those whose answers decreased subsequently calculated. Banking Survey The The Bank Lending Policy Index is calculated using the weighted net balance (WNB) based on the credit weight of each respondent to total credit and the weight of the response (Tighter (1), Slightly Tighter (0.5), Unchanged (0), Slightly Looser (-0.5) and Looser (-1)), with a minimum WNB of -100 and maximum of 100. A WNB value > 0 indicates tighter lending policy, WNB = 0 is unchanged and WNB < 0 indicates looser lending policy. 10