GCC Daily Market Update - 9 January

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 9 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,747.7 25,283.0 6,676.6 7,696.5 13,367.8 5,487.4 116,304.5 23,714.5 30,899.5 3,409.5 34,352.8 4.6 (12.9) 23.3 (27.7) 48.1 16.7 (333.4) NA 84.9 17.7 198.9 0.2 (0.1) 0.4 (0.4) 0.4 0.3 (0.3) NA 0.3 0.5 0.6 2.8 2.3 4.4 0.1 3.5 3.3 0.8 4.2 3.3 3.1 0.9 2.8 2.3 4.4 0.1 3.5 3.3 0.8 4.2 3.3 3.1 0.9 8,975.8 7,310.3 4,585.5 3,490.2 6,498.5 5,108.0 1,320.4 1,627.4 3,753.4 224.6 (7.4) 29.1 19.1 (6.5) (11.2) 1.6 (0.1) 6.4 2.6 (0.1) 0.6 0.6 (0.1) (0.2) 0.1 (0.0) 0.2 5.3 1.2 4.3 3.6 1.4 0.2 (0.8) 2.6 3.2 5.3 1.2 4.3 3.6 1.4 0.2 (0.8) 4.5 3.2 67.8 61.7 2.8 1,320.4 322.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 (1.9) (0.6) 0.2 0.5 1.4 (0.1) (0.2) 1.9 2.9 (3.6) 0.8 (2.1) 1.9 2.9 (3.6) 0.8 (2.1) Source: Bloomberg Global US stocks rose for a fifth straight day, with technology shares leading gains in the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq benchmark. The gains come ahead of the release of corporate earnings, which would be benefitting from the recently announced tax cuts. In Europe, positive data benefitted the regional indices. The European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for the European Union last month reached its highest level since August 2000. Basic Resources companies led gains across the continent. In Asia, stocks mostly rose, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbing 0.3% and notching its 10th consecutive session of gains. Japan’s benchmark remained closed for a holiday. GCC Gulf indices ended on a mixed note. Saudi Arabia’s index pared some gains made on Sunday, in response to King Salman’s SAR 50bn of measures to help citizens cope with the rising cost of living. Higher than expected earnings posted by United Electronics Co, helped the shares gain 2.7%. Car hire company Budget Saudi continued its upward trajectory, following the kingdoms decision to allow Saudi women to drive. Dubai’s benchmark added 0.6% as amusement park operator DXB Entertainments rose 1.6% and builder Arabtec climbed 1.9%. Heavily traded Drake and Skull however closed lower, despite news on the company successfully completing its corporate debt restructuring. Qatar Qatar’s stock market surged on Monday, outperforming the rest of the region for a second straight day as investors bought shares to secure dividends. A recent fall in share prices has made dividend yields attractive in the nation. The Qatari stock index gained 2.6% and trading volume almost doubled from the previous day. Buying was seen more pronounced in Insurance, Transport and Industrials counters. Institutional investors were the major buyers in the market. Out of the total listed stocks, about 70% ended up green in yesterday’s session. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.4 1.3 4.2 108.9 DSM 20 14.9 1.3 4.3 91.8 9,000 10.0 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.1 1.6 3.3 782.1 8,000 5.0 UAE (ADX) 16.3 1.3 4.4 49.6 UAE (DFM) 24.7 1.3 3.9 145.0 Kuwait (KSE) 15.6 1.0 5.3 45.9 Oman (MSM) 12.3 1.0 5.1 1.5 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.8 0.8 5.9 3.3 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Insurance Co Qatari Investors Group Nakilat Qatar Navigation Industries Qatar Top Losers Al Ahli Bank Zad Holding Co Gulf Warehousing Co. Al Meera QGMD Close Price 55.9 39.4 17.7 57.6 101.6 3.7 2.6 0.7 2.2 3.4 7.1 6.9 4.3 4.0 3.5 7.4 7.6 9.9 3.0 4.7 (27.5) (32.3) (25.0) (39.4) (16.5) 92.5 507.1 898.9 167.6 161.2 38.1 78.0 49.0 147.5 6.4 (2.0) (3.0) (1.5) (4.2) (0.2) (4.9) (3.7) (3.0) (2.8) (2.4) (2.4) (3.7) 11.4 1.8 (1.1) 2.4 (6.1) (11.4) (15.6) (37.7) 0.7 11.8 3.0 9.8 94.0 13.5 126.4 14.8 284.1 NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 23.6 19.6 12.1 20.7 23.8 Qatar DSM Index 10,000 15.0 8,975.8 7,000 15/Oct 0.0 29/Oct 12/Nov 26/Nov Index Volume (mn) 10/Dec 24/Dec 7/Jan Index Value Closing Level 2,817.9 5,092.8 2,731.4 3,654.6 1,995.2 1,142.2 1,905.1 1D Change (%) 2.5 (0.3) 2.6 5.2 2.6 1.8 3.0 Buy (%) 34.2 26.2 60.4 13.8 25.7 39.6 Sell (%) 37.7 34.4 72.1 13.7 14.2 27.9 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 9 , 2018  Abu Dhabi based holding company, Miral Asset Management, has appointed the Netherland based BAM International to deliver the construction of a multi-purpose Yas Arena with a capacity of 18,000 seats, located on Yas Island, Abu Dhabi. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority has introduced a new licensing service to attract global entrepreneurs, who are willing to establish business in Saudi Arabia. The service allows them to get benefits from various business incubators, research centers and SME’s services. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia based ACWA Power has completed the financing of the 3 solar PV projects under Round 2 of Egypt Feed-in-Tariff program II, with an aggregate capacity of 165.5MWp. Out of the total project cost of USD 190.0mn, 75.0% is financed through a non-recourse project debt from European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain’s annualized real GDP growth rate reached 3.6% and nominal GDP annual growth rate was 6.9% in Q3-17, driven by increase in infrastructure’s investments. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Australia’s total building permits approvals increased by a seasonally adjusted rate of 17.1% YoY and 11.7% MoM to 21,055 in November17. (Source: ABS) Bahrain based investment firm, Arcapita, has bought 75.0% stake worth more than USD 100.0mn of MC Sign Company, which is US based signage and lighting services company. (Source: Arabian Business)  Turkey’s Industrial Production Index increased by 7.0% YoY and 0.3% MoM in November-17, driven by yearly increase in manufacturing index by 7.1%, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply index by 6.7% and mining and quarrying index by 5.9%. (Source: Turkstat) Bahrain based real estate development company, Seef Properties, has signed a Share Registry Agreement with Bahrain Clear at the Bahrain Bourse. Under the agreement, Bahrain Clear will act as custodian for all clearing and depository activities of the company. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait Energy is planning for a merger with London based oil and gas company, SOCO International, which would help Kuwait Energy to raise IPO on the London stock Exchange. (Source: Reuters)  Oman’s total value of trade contracts in the real estate sector amounted to OMR 128.0mn, while the total number of real estate transactions reached 29,765 in December-17. (Source: Muscat Daily)  Oman based Capital Market Authority has issued a detailed regulations for creation of real estate investment funds in the country. The issuance is a part of financial sector's contribution to the National Program for Enhancing Economic Diversification. (Source: Muscat Daily) GLOBAL NEWS  US consumer credit increased by a seasonally adjusted rate of 8.75% YoY to USD 3.8tn in November-17. Revolving credit increased by 13.25% YoY, while non-revolving credit rose by 7.25% YoY during the same period. (Source: Federal Reserve)  Eurozone’s total volume of retail trade increased by a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.5% MoM and 2.8% YoY in November-17, driven by monthly increase in sale of non-food products by 2.3%, Food, drinks and tobacco by 1.2% and automotive fuel by 0.3%. (Source: EC)  UK’s Halifax House Price Index increased by 2.7% YoY, while it decreased by 0.6% MoM in Q4-17. The average housing price reached GBP 225,021 during the same period. (Source: Halifax)  Uk’s retail sales increased by 0.6% YoY on a like for like basis, and by 1.4% YoY on a total basis in December-17. (Source: BRC)  Germany’s new orders in manufacturing sector decreased by seasonally adjusted rate of 0.4% MoM, while the turnover increased by 4.6% MoM in November-17. Domestic orders decreased by 0.4% MoM, while foreign orders decreased by 0.5% MoM during the same period. (Source: Destatis)   GCC NEWS    Global sukuk issuance increased by 45.3% YoY to USD 97.9bn in 2017, driven by the huge issuance from some GCC countries, according to S&P Global Rating report. The report further analyzed that some issuers preferred issuance of sukuk over bonds due to lesser time involved in raising funds. (Source: Trade Arabia) UAE Cabinet has agreed to distribute 70.0% of VAT’s revenue to the local government to ensure that the tax revenues are been used in supporting the development projects in the country. The Vice President of the UAE stated that The government would be transparent about the nature of these projects and resilient in controlling the markets to prevent price hikes. (Source: Trade Arabia) UAE has invested around USD 6.2bn in several service and production sectors in Egypt, the Egyptian Minister of Trade and Industry stated. QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s total deposits of commercial bank increased by 1.0% MoM and 16.1% YoY to QAR 802.3bn in November-17. The growth was driven by increase in public sector commercial bank deposits by 3.3% MoM and 73.3% YoY to QAR 308.3bn. (Source: MDPS)  South Africa is planning to double its bilateral trade with Qatar to USD 1.0bn by 2020, South African embassy, Douw Vermaak, stated. (Source: (Source: Arabian Business)     Dubai-based Azizi Developments has announced that 7 projects with a combined value of worth AED 1.8bn (USD 489.0mn) are in pipeline to be delivered mostly by H1-18. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai based engineering and construction service provider, Drake & Scull International has successfully completed the restructuring of its corporate general bank debt in the UAE. The company has also secured new credit lines and working capital facilities for its ongoing and new projects portfolio. (Source: Trade Arabia) Emirates signed an agreement with Etihad for cooperation in aviation security. The agreement includes sharing of information, intelligence, security training and education programme, along with operational areas in and outside UAE. (Source: Arabian Business) Abu Dhabi Global Market signed a Fintech cooperation agreement with the Bahrain Economic Development Board to provide a framework for information sharing. The agreement also provides background to facilitate the movement of start-ups, knowledge and talent between the two jurisdictions. (Source: Trade Arabia) Qatar Tribune)  Qatar Airways has improved its effeciency to use aviation fuel which resulted in the company’s operations to be 2.5% more carbon efficient in the financial year 2017. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar based Aamal company and its wholly owned subsidiary has signed a distribution agreement with Turkey based CinnaGen Ilac Company to import several biotech drugs, which might be used for medical treatment of multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, cancer, and blood diseases. (Source: 4 Traders)  Aamal company is planning to build three factories to produce copper wires, aluminium bars and drums for cables, projects, which that could make country self-reliant against the bloackade. (Source: Reuters)  Qatar’s Public Works Authority, Ashghal, has introducted a new initiative called “Rehabilitation of Small Contractors”, which will provide opportunities to local entrepreneurs to execute small projects and will enable them to execute future strategic projects in Qatar. (Source: The Peninsula) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 9 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1997 USD/QAR 3.6415 113.0900 EUR/QAR 4.3687 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3598 JPY/QAR 0.0322 USD/CHF 0.9772 GBP/QAR 4.9517 USD/CAD 1.2421 CHF/QAR 3.7265 AUD/USD 0.7842 CAD/QAR 2.9317 NZD/USD 0.7176 AUD/QAR 2.8557 USD/INR 63.0025 INR/QAR 0.0578 USD/TRY 3.7456 TRY/QAR 0.9722 USD/ZAR 12.3850 ZAR/QAR 0.2940 USD/BRL 3.2368 BRL/QAR 1.1250 FX Commentary USD gained in yesterday’s session, after a long sell dollar theme dominating the markets. The gains in USD come on back of hawkish comments from several Fed officials over the weekend. San Francisco Fed President John Williams stated that the tax cuts would boost economy and suggested 3 rate hikes next year. Against a broad-basket of currencies, the dollar edged 0.3% higher on the day. EUR, which has been recently benefitting from poor jobs data from US, shed some points on back of profit booking from investors. A cooler than expected Eurozone’s December Consumer Price Index, also weighed on the currency. The CAD weakened against its US counterpart, pulling back from Friday’s three-month high following a Bank of Canada business outlook report, which showcases signs of capacity pressures and labor shortages. GBP was broadly unchanged. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.44 1.47 1.55 1.70 2.15 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) QAIBOR 2.03 2.15 2.30 2.63 3.00 SAIBOR NA 1.62 1.69 1.90 2.28 EIBOR 1.16 1.36 1.61 1.77 2.58 BMIBOR 1.30 1.55 2.13 2.40 2.98 NA NA 1.69 1.88 2.38 LIBOR EURIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.0% 3.07% 3.33% 3.59% 4.36% 2.29% 2.41% 2.49% 2.81% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 2.35% 2.0% 1.96% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 27.3 0.7 Turkey 162.9 UK 18.3 (4.0) Brazil 147.7 (96.8) Germany 10.9 (6.7) Egypt 321.5 (117.8) 2.15% 2.48% 2.39% 2.33% 2.0% 1.0% 2.23% 2.08% 1.91% 2.61% 2.46% France 1.47% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change (44.9) 18.6 (5.4) Abu Dhabi 60.5 (6.3) Italy 119.2 (33.9) Bahrain 276.0 15.5 Greece 362.1 (256.7) Dubai 120.3 (18.1) Russia 117.7 (61.6) Qatar 99.6 (27.8) Japan 26.1 (1.0) Saudi Arabia 89.1 (26.1) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 10:00 Germany Industrial Production SA MoM Nov 1.80% (1.40%) 10:00 Germany Industrial Production WDA YoY Nov 3.90% 2.70% 10:00 Germany Trade Balance Nov 21.3b 18.9b 10:00 Germany Current Account Balance Nov 25.3b 18.1b 10:00 Germany Exports SA MoM Nov 1.20% (0.30%) 10:00 Germany Imports SA MoM Nov 0.40% 1.80% 10:45 France Trade Balance Nov (4,700m) (4,956m) 12:00 Italy Unemployment Rate Nov P 11.00% 11.10% 13:00 EU Unemployment Rate Nov 8.70% 8.80% 14:00 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Dec 107.8 107.5 16:15 Canada Housing Starts Dec 211.0k 252.2k 18:00 US JOLTS Job Openings Nov 6,025 5,996 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) United Electronics Co NA NA NA 57.6 109.6 120.5 Salalah Port Services 14.9 9.8 (8.3) 2.5 43.0 5.9 Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 9 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 4th January 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.3 0.0 0.0 10.3 2.7 5.4 5.1 4.5 0.0 4.9 7.0 2.5 6.4 3.5 6.9 4.1 5.9 4.0 6.8 0.0 11.4 5.5 5.6 6.4 6.8 5.6 4.9 4.1 4.5 4.1 2.7 6.9 6.4 4.4 4.2 4.0 2.8 3.2 6.3 3.1 7.7 4.2 0.0 8.5 5.5 3.8 0.0 3.1 3.3 6.0 6.3 5.7 4.1 P/B Ratio (x) 1.7 0.7 1.8 0.8 1.6 0.8 2.3 0.6 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.8 0.9 1.5 0.9 2.2 2.3 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.5 3.6 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.8 1.2 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.7 1.9 0.7 2.4 1.3 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.8 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 13.8 42.7 24.4 8.4 69.0 11.0 14.1 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.7 10.5 9.1 21.9 10.6 5.6 31.6 15.4 37.5 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.9 11.1 6.2 11.9 12.1 (H) ( ) 11.5 22.8 15.5 12.3 18.2 10.7 11.4 17.8 32.1 9.8 23.9 64.1 13.0 25.0 9.6 16.3 57.5 8.5 13.0 15.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.2 13.4 11.3 20.3 13.8 13.2 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.5 0.6 1.3 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 5.4 14.0 0.4 5.6 10.3 2.3 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 5.8 13.1 5.0 0.7 -0.5 0.5 4.3 0.9 14.7 2.0 4.1 5.6 2.1 0.4 1.5 2.2 0.7 4.2 1.8 3.4 0.7 0.2 1.7 1.1 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.9 42.6 8.4 35.5 24.1 17.4 17.3 19.5 8.4 63.1 44.9 71.8 8.6 39.4 62.2 34.1 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 13.8 17.6 113.5 43.4 12.5 19.5 10.4 55.1 11.4 78.5 20.9 32.4 46.7 24.4 19.5 20.4 28.6 69.8 22.8 34.9 47.5 11.2 12.7 30.8 17.3 71.1 5.3 23.4 27.0 15.4 117.8 32.5 28.0 Stock Price (QR) 44.4 27.5 14.8 29.2 37.7 13.9 38.9 11.1 6.4 97.0 57.0 127.0 7.8 57.7 74.0 153.0 25.0 103.3 6.4 7.0 64.1 81.0 8.8 18.0 6.1 97.6 13.4 181.5 36.6 43.8 63.0 14.3 15.0 53.0 47.3 55.2 32.6 11.8 9.1 14.7 92.0 8.1 48.7 16.6 55.9 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4