GCC Daily Market Update - 8 July

Transcription

1. July 8 , 2021 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) MSCI GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 4,358.1 34,681.8 14,810.5 7,151.0 15,692.7 6,527.7 1,390.6 28,367.0 27,960.6 3,553.7 53,054.8 14.6 104.4 24.2 50.1 181.3 20.2 8.0 (276.3) (112.2) 23.5 193.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.6 (1.0) (0.4) 0.7 0.4 1.4 0.5 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.3 2.5 (1.5) (3.0) (1.0) 1.1 16.0 13.3 14.9 10.7 14.4 17.6 (5.8) 3.4 2.7 2.3 11.1 10,865.9 10,958.6 6,969.6 2,782.1 6,388.1 4,109.9 1,577.9 672.7 6,078.4 84.5 (12.7) (15.3) (0.6) 39.1 (11.6) 4.1 0.1 16.9 0.8 (0.1) (0.2) (0.0) 0.6 (0.3) 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 (0.2) 2.0 (1.0) 0.0 1.1 (0.6) (0.0) 1.0 4.1 26.1 38.1 11.6 15.2 12.3 5.9 22.5 11.4 73.4 72.2 3.6 1,802.1 432.9 (1.1) (1.2) (0.0) 7.9 7.1 (1.5) (1.6) (1.1) 0.4 1.7 (2.7) (2.3) (1.8) 1.7 0.2 41.1 48.0 41.2 (4.9) 22.3 Global The US markets ended higher yesterday. The S&P 500 index increased by 0.3% as gains in Materials and Industrial shares supported the benchmark. The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June-21 policy meeting indicated a dovish tone as the officials did not agree to tighten the policy. The Stoxx Europe 600 index increased yesterday by 0.8% to close at 459.9 as gains in Technology and Commodity linked shares supported the index. The FTSE 100 index increased yesterday by 0.7% as gains in heavyweight Mining and Consumer Staples shares supported the benchmark. Amongst Asian markets, Japan’s stock market index declined by 1.0% due to losses in chip-related shares. Also, concerns over rising coronavirus infections ahead of the Tokyo Olympics weighed on the index. China’s stock market index advanced 0.7% as the nation steps up supervision of overseas-listed firms. GCC Most GCC markets ended lower yesterday. Abu Dhabi’s market ended 0.2% lower as losses in Banking and Telecommunication stocks weighed on the index. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark declined by 0.1% yesterday as losses in Media & Entertainment and Commercial & Professional Services stocks weighed on the index. Dubai’s benchmark remained flat as losses in Real Estate & Construction and Investment & Financial Services stocks were offset by gains in Telecommunication and Banking stocks. Qatar The QE index increased by 0.8% yesterday. Buying support on the part of foreign individual and institutional investors supported the benchmark. Trade turnover and volume increased on the bourse with Banking & Financial Services, Industrial and Transportation stocks accounting for 67.7% of the total trading value. Out of the 48 listed stocks, 47 exchanged hands, 23 advanced, 22 declined and 2 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Qatar DSM Index P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 19.0 1.6 2.6 90.4 DSM 20 18.4 1.6 2.7 64.9 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 35.8 2.4 2.1 2,821.9 UAE (ADX) 23.7 2.0 3.5 297.5 UAE (DFM) 21.1 1.0 2.8 35.7 Kuwait (KSE) 41.1 1.6 1.9 101.4 Oman (MSM) 14.4 0.8 3.8 4.5 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 13.4 0.8 3.5 2.2 QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Cinema & Film Qatar Gas Mannai Corporation Qatar Navigation Commercial Bank Psqc Top Losers Qatar First Bank Qatar General Qatar German Co For Ooredoo Qpsc Salam International Close 1D Change Performance Price Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM 4.0 3.2 3.9 7.5 5.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.1 4.6 2.1 2.0 1.9 0.2 0.6 30.3 5.7 23.2 35.6 0.3 NA 18.5 15,812.9 14.6 36.9 92.5 26.5 25.0 2,200.4 NA 45.6 996.5 16.9 1.9 2.1 2.9 7.4 1.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) (1.4) (1.3) (0.9) (0.7) (0.6) 7.8 (22.2) 29.1 (2.0) 47.5 61.4 4,880.8 42.3 (7.1) 44.7 10.8 133.7 6,266.0 NA 11.0 2,090.7 26.0 125.9 14,829.9 NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 11,000 10,865.9 10,800 300.0 200.0 10,600 100.0 10,400 10,200 11-Apr 0.0 25-Apr 9-May 23-May Index Volume (mn) 6-Jun 20-Jun 4-Jul Index Value Closing Level 4,521.9 8,139.3 3,643.7 2,623.4 1,809.6 1,083.3 3,504.7 1D Change (%) 0.5 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 (0.5) 3.3 Buy (%) 41.0 15.9 56.9 15.2 27.9 43.1 Sell (%) 45.7 25.2 70.9 14.6 14.5 29.1 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. July 8 , 2021 GLOBAL NEWS   The IMF’s Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva said that additional fiscal support in the US could raise inflationary pressures and cautioned that the risk of a constant increase in prices could need raising interest rates earlier than anticipated. (Source: Reuters) The minutes of the US Fed meeting on 15-16th June-21 showed that officials discussed lowering asset purchases but also expressed the requirement for patience. The meeting summary also reiterated the Fed’s opinion that inflation has been increasing faster than expected but it is transitory. (Source: CNBC)  International Air Transport Association (IATA) has signed a contract with the Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation to set up an office in Riyadh, to strengthen its presence in Saudi Arabia. (Source: Arab News)  Saudi Arabia-based investment firm Sanabil Investments, fully owned by the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) announced receiving approval from PIF to increase its share capital to SAR 30.0bn (USD 8.0bn) from SAR 20.0bn (USD 5.3bn). (Source: Zawya)  Saudi Arabia-based Takween Advanced Industries accomplished sale of majority stake in its subsidiary Advanced Fabrics Factory Company (SAAF) to China-based firm JOFO Nonwoven Co. The total transaction cash inflow will be SAR 304.7mn (USD 81.0mn). (Source: Zawya)  The European Union Commission has forecasted that the Eurozone’s economy will grow by 4.8% in 2021, as compared to 4.3% in its May21 forecast, despite the expectations of new restrictions resulting from fast-spreading Delta variant. Inflation will increase to 1.9% in 2021 due to transitory factors. (Source: Reuters)  Chairman of Saudi Chinese Business Council said that Chinese companies have shown interest in participating in Saudi Arabia’s privatization program as part of their investment plans for the nation. The nation plans to raise USD 54.5bn by 2025 via its privatization program. (Source: Zawya)  European Central Bank policy makers have agreed to increase their inflation target to 2.0% for 2021 and make room to exceed it when required, according to officials. (Source: Bloomberg)   China Cabinet announced that it will use timely reductions in the bank reserve requirement ratio (RRR) to support the real economy, particularly small firms. There is scope to cut reserve requirements, which will assist in releasing long-term funds and boost banks to lower financing costs. (Source: Reuters) Saudi Arabia-based Ataa Educational Company signed a Shariahcompliant agreement with Riyad Bank to procure facilities valued at SAR 278.3mn (USD 74.1mn) for 10 years. Fund will be used to finance the future expansion plans and working capital. (Source: Mubasher)  Saudi Arabia-based Alkhorayef Water and Power Technologies Company has received a contract valued at SAR 131.6mn (USD 35.0mn) to execute maintenance and optimization works for the stormwater and groundwater level reduction networks in South and East Jeddah. (Source: Mubasher)  Advanced Petrochemical company reported 68.4% YoY increase in H121 net profit to SAR 436.0mn (USD 116.1mn). The revenue increased by 32.9% YoY to SAR 1.4bn (USD 0.4bn). (Source: Saudi Stock Exchange)  The IMF expects Oman’s economy to slowly recover from the impact of the pandemic and grow by 2.5% in 2021 and to 3.0% average growth over the medium term. The revenue and expenditure efficiency are anticipated to increase while the public debt is estimated to decrease in the medium term. (Source: Times of Oman)  Bahrain-based alternative investment firm, Arcapita Group Holdings announced completion of the sale of global brand implementation company, Stratus to private equity firm, Vestar Capital Partners for an undisclosed amount. (Source: Bahrain News Agency)  Fitch Ratings lowered India’s growth forecast to 10.0% for the current fiscal, from earlier 12.8% due to slowing recovery after second wave of COVID-19. It also stated that fast vaccination could support a sustainable revival in business and consumer confidence. (Source: Financial Express) GCC NEWS       DP World, UAE Region signed a 30-year lease agreement with chemical distributor, Petrochem Middle East to expand its business in the GCC region. The latter will invest between USD 80.0mn to USD 90.0mn in developing a chemical terminal on Quay 7, neighboring to the devoted chemical handling berth within Jebel Ali Port. (Source: Emirates News Agency) Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) has undertaken roads and transport projects valued at over AED 145.0bn (USD 39.5bn) in the past 15 years, as per Mattar Mohammed Al Tayer, Director-General, Chairman of the Board of Executive of RTA. (Source: Emirates News Agency) Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) completed 84.5% of the 829 megawatts (MW) 4th phase of the H-Station power plant in Al Aweer town with total investments valued at AED 1.1bn (USD 0.3bn). This phase will raise the station's total capacity to 2,825MW and project is likely to be operational by Q2-22. (Source: Emirates News Agency) Abu Dhabi-based Emirates Development Bank (EDB) has signed a MoU with Mashreq Bank to offer credit Guarantee programs for SMEs, to support them with expenses and general financing needs. The latter will provide a mix of Capex as well as working capital facilities of up to AED 10.0mn (USD 2.7mn) to SME customers. (Source: Emirates News Agency) Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) is in discussion with Abu Dhabi Ports for the development of an industrial scale green hydrogen to ammonia export project in Abu Dhabi. The new plant would be fueled by hydrogen generated by an electrolyser facility paired with a 2GW solar photovoltaic (PV) power plant. (Source: Trade Arabia) Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Transport said that Transport and logistics will contribute 10.0% of Saudi GDP by 2030, up from 6.0% today, after the execution of the nation’s new strategy for the sector. The nation aims to handle 4.5mn tons of annual air cargo, up from 900,000 tons in 2019. (Source: Arab News) QATAR NEWS  Qatar Petroleum (QP) signed a 15-year liquefied natural gas (LNG) sale and purchase agreement with Taiwan’s CPC Corporation to supply 1.25mn tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG. LNG deliveries will start in January-22 to CPC’s receiving terminals. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Ministry of Transport and Communications (MoTC) said that the recently-launched Tasmu Platform will operate various smart solutions, including those in the healthcare and agriculture sectors along with those in food security. It would also contribute to the growth of the nation’s digital economy. (Source: Gulf Times)  Umm Al Houl Energy Company announced the inauguration of the project to expand its water station in the Umm Al Houl Economic Zone in Al Wakra City and expects it to be a step to achieve self-sufficiency. (Source: Qatar Stock Exchange)  Dukhan Bank sold Additional Tier 1 (AT1) sukuk valued at USD 500.0mn at 3.95%. The price guidance was tightened from initial guidance of around 4.375%, after receiving orders worth more than USD 2.3bn. (Source: Reuters)  The Commercial Bank announced that an offer to acquire further 15.2% of the issued share capital of National Bank of Oman SAOG (NBO) on 3rd June-21, will close on 11th July-21. The offer is cash only of OMR 0.2 (USD 0.5) per NBO share. (Source: Qatar Stock Exchange) 2
3. July 8 , 2021 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1820 USD/QAR 3.6415 110.6600 EUR/QAR 4.3043 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3831 JPY/QAR 0.0329 USD/CHF 0.9255 GBP/QAR 5.0366 USD/CAD 1.2481 CHF/QAR 3.9346 AUD/USD 0.7487 CAD/QAR 2.9176 NZD/USD 0.7019 AUD/QAR 2.7264 USD/INR 74.1188 INR/QAR 0.0491 USD/TRY 8.6907 TRY/QAR 0.4190 USD/ZAR 14.3113 ZAR/QAR 0.2544 USD/BRL 5.2320 BRL/QAR 0.6960 FX Commentary The USD was higher against a basket of major currencies yesterday with US dollar index increasing by 0.2% to close at 92.71. The greenback increased after the release of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting in June-21. There were no indication of any major steps to be taken regarding the monetary policy. The EUR declined against the greenback after the release of lower than expected Germany Industrial Production data for May-21. The GBP increased marginally as the UK Labour Productivity in Q1-21 increased. The CAD edged lower against the greenback primarily due to weakening of oil prices. Also, Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index data increased in June-21. The AUD decreased against the greenback after the Reserve Bank of Australia took a first step towards stimulus tapering. Source: Bloomberg SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration Overnight LIBOR 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.13 0.24 (0.59) (0.57) (0.55) (0.54) (0.49) QAIBOR 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.13 1.34 SAIBOR 0.54 0.58 0.63 0.79 0.91 EIBOR 0.19 0.16 0.19 0.39 0.52 BMIBOR 0.65 0.82 1.41 1.27 1.52 KIBOR 0.56 0.88 1.25 1.50 2.00 EURIBOR Source: Bloomberg 1.63% 1.30% 1.09% 0.87% 0.30% 0.95% 0.33% 0.22% 2 Yrs 2.32% 0.0% 1.69% 1.26% 2.0% 0.34% 0.22% 0.78% 2 Yrs 5 Years CDS 2.0% 0.0% 3.18% 4.0% 5 Yrs Qatar 1.94% 1.09% 1.32% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 1.0% Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 5 Yrs Current 0.65% 0.48% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 11.4 (2.7) Turkey 392.8 79.5 UK 10.5 (8.3) Brazil 172.5 (3.2) Germany 11.0 (1.7) Egypt 351.1 (1.7) France 21.7 3.4 Italy 73.5 (27.1) Bahrain Greece 71.2 (26.9) Russia 87.2 (10.1) Japan 18.5 0.8 Abu Dhabi 41.6 (4.4) 232.7 (28.6) Dubai 93.3 (29.0) Qatar 42.8 (3.3) Saudi Arabia 58.3 (11.5) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 9:00 Germany Trade Balance Period Survey Prior May 15.1b 15.5b 9:00 Germany Exports SA MoM 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims May 0.60% 0.30% Jul-03rd 350k 15:30 US Continuing Claims 364k Jun-26th 3,350k 3469k 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Jul-02nd -- 592.4b Jul-04th -- 55.1 Jun 6.00% 7.90% 16:45 US Langer Consumer Comfort 2:50 Japan Money Stock M2 YoY 2:50 Japan Money Stock M3 YoY Jun 5.20% 6.90% 9:00 UK Industrial Production MoM May 1.40% (1.30%) 9:00 UK Industrial Production YoY May 21.60% 27.50% 9:00 UK Manufacturing Production MoM May 1.00% (0.30%) 9:00 UK Manufacturing Production YoY May 29.50% 39.70% 9:00 UK Index of Services 3M/3M May 4.10% 1.40% 9:00 UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn May (£1,1050m) (£1,0958m) 9:00 UK Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn May -- (£5,549m) 9:00 UK Trade Balance GBP/Mn May (£1,250m) (£935m) Source: Bloomberg 3
4. July 8 , 2021 th QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As of 30 June 2021) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Baladna Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed QAMCO Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance QLM Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 4.1 1.9 0.0 2.7 1.0 2.6 3.8 2.1 0.0 2.3 3.5 2.5 0.0 2.7 3.5 0.3 3.2 4.7 2.7 2.6 0.0 0.0 2.3 4.5 2.9 4.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.1 2.3 3.8 2.4 3.6 4.0 2.6 1.1 5.1 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.0 0.8 4.2 0.0 2.8 3.5 1.1 3.4 3.1 3.4 1.9 3.7 4.1 3.6 3.6 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 1.2 2.1 0.9 2.1 1.2 2.5 0.9 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.3 1.0 2.0 1.3 0.8 2.5 2.8 1.8 2.2 9.9 0.7 2.2 2.3 1.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 2.4 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.8 2.4 0.9 1.0 0.4 2.7 3.2 0.9 0.6 1.4 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.7 0.6 1.1 1.1 P/E Ratio (x) 12.3 14.2 55.0 11.5 42.1 11.5 15.2 47.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 13.1 14.8 14.1 29.3 14.1 18.5 25.4 28.1 18.5 52.4 24.0 84.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 32.3 18.6 25.1 57.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 42.2 24.8 27.7 41.1 15.2 32.7 14.6 19.9 26.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 14.1 16.6 10.8 15.5 16.0 22.5 9.5 (H) (‫)م‬ 40.0 23.0 33.3 25.1 33.6 26.6 12.6 13.8 (H) (‫)م‬ 18.5 18.5 EPS (QR) 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 0.6 1.3 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 BV/Share (QR) 2.6 4.4 0.8 3.2 2.5 1.8 1.8 1.4 0.7 7.7 3.9 7.8 1.0 4.3 1.2 5.0 3.5 7.0 2.1 8.3 0.3 1.3 2.0 6.7 3.4 1.2 1.7 1.0 5.5 1.2 1.0 9.2 2.3 3.3 4.6 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.6 5.8 2.8 1.6 3.0 5.1 1.2 1.1 3.1 1.8 6.7 1.0 3.5 3.3 1.8 12.1 3.5 3.5 Stock Price (QR) 3.7 5.3 1.6 2.8 5.2 2.2 4.5 1.2 1.9 17.3 9.3 18.0 1.0 1.5 3.8 8.7 19.3 3.8 17.7 2.7 1.0 4.4 15.6 1.0 1.5 1.1 13.3 1.9 1.5 16.7 2.5 2.8 5.0 4.6 2.0 2.5 2.1 7.7 5.0 3.0 1.7 1.1 1.5 7.3 1.6 5.2 3.0 7.4 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنكالدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالميةالقابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ االول‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫بنكقطرالوطني‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوكوالخدماتالمالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمعالمناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطرللوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائعوالخدماتاالستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليجالدولية‬ ‫صناعاتقطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباءوماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ QLM ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدانالقابضة‬ ‫مزاياقطر‬ ‫المتحدةللتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافونقطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above-mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4