GCC Daily Market Update - 6 March

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 6 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,383.1 21,005.7 5,373.5 7,374.3 12,027.4 4,995.1 89,722.1 19,469.2 23,552.7 3,218.3 28,832.5 1.2 2.7 10.2 (8.1) (32.2) 31.3 (211.8) (95.6) (175.4) (11.7) (7.3) 0.1 0.0 0.2 (0.1) (0.3) 0.6 (0.2) (0.5) (0.7) (0.4) (0.0) 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.5 1.6 2.8 2.6 1.8 (0.8) (0.7) 0.3 6.4 6.3 10.5 3.2 4.8 2.7 14.8 1.9 7.1 3.7 8.3 10,721.2 6,968.0 4,565.2 3,543.3 6,804.6 5,807.8 1,342.6 1,660.6 3,093.5 NA (48.7) (31.2) (40.3) 37.5 (7.3) 1.0 (0.1) (0.0) NA (0.7) (0.7) (1.1) 0.6 (0.1) 0.1 (0.0) (0.0) 0.2 (0.1) 0.3 (2.4) 0.3 0.5 (0.5) 0.8 0.4 2.7 (3.4) 0.4 0.4 18.4 0.4 10.0 5.7 6.5 55.9 53.3 2.8 1,226.5 268.7 0.8 0.7 0.0 (6.4) 0.8 1.5 1.4 0.8 (0.5) 0.3 0.3 (1.6) 4.9 (2.2) (0.6) (1.9) (1.1) (21.9) 6.5 7.3 Global Global indices were mixed on Friday. In Asia, Nikkei fell 0.5% mainly due to weaker yen, while Hang Seng Index ended 0.7% lower with rate-sensitive Property stocks among the biggest decliners, amidst indication of a US rate hike this month. The commencement of China's annual parliament meeting also set a cautious tone among investors. European benchmark, Stoxx 600 pared most of its losses, as banks rallied, ahead of Fed Chair’s speech later during the day. France’s CAC 40 Index rose 0.6% as sentiments were raised after polls showed anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen lagging rival Emmanuel Macron for the first time. In US, Financial stocks led advancers, after hawkish statements from Fed Chair and Vice Chair. The prospects of rate hike however impacted the high dividend yielding stocks, which weighed on the broader indices. A higher than expected Service sector PMI data for February-17 lifted investor sentiments. GCC Most Gulf indices fell on Sunday. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index fell 0.7% with 70% of stocks ending in red. Petrochemical shares were among the losers with Saudi Kayan declining 1.8%. Tourism firm, Al Tayyar Travel plunged 5.1% in heavy trade after it denied signing the SAR 5.0bn (USD 1.3bn) worth of deals with Indonesian companies for religious tourism. Al Sagr Cooperative Insurance ended 4.2% lower after a recommendation of a cash dividend of SAR 2.0 per share for 2016. Dubai’s main index was down 1.1% after the most heavily traded stock, DXB Entertainments, retreated 2.1% to a one-year low of AED 1.0 for the day. Abu Dhabi index ended in red as the Banking stocks were the biggest drag with NBAD and FGB falling 2.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Kuwaiti index added 0.6% on the back of a 1.6% rise in Kuwait Finance House. Qatar Qatar stock market was closed on account of Early March Bank holiday. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 15.2 1.6 3.7 121.4 DSM 20 15.7 1.6 3.7 79.6 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.2 1.6 3.4 944.4 UAE (ADX) 12.8 1.4 5.4 42.2 UAE (DFM) 15.1 1.2 3.9 70.4 Kuwait (KSE) 22.8 1.2 3.5 69.0 Oman (MSM) 11.0 1.2 4.9 8.4 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.6 0.7 4.7 0.8 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg, Qatar All Share data is as on 2nd March 2017 Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers NA NA NA NA NA Top Losers NA NA NA NA NA Close Price NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 20.0 11,000 10,500 10,721.2 10.0 10,000 9,500 9,000 7/Dec 0.0 21/Dec 4/Jan 18/Jan Index Volume (mn) 1/Feb 15/Feb 1/Mar Index Value Closing Level NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1D Change (%) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Buy (%) NA NA NA NA NA NA Sell (%) NA NA NA NA NA NA Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 6 , 2017 April-17. The plan is touted to be the world's largest solar power plant. GLOBAL NEWS  The US Fed Chair said that the interest rate hike in March would be appropriate, given no major surprises, on jobs and inflation. She further indicated faster rate hikes this year. (Source: Reuters)  Eurozone monthly retail sales fell 0.1% MoM, registering its third consecutive decline, amidst lower consumer appetite for spending as prices go up. (Source: Reuters)  Japan's core consumer prices rose 0.1% YoY in January-17, posting the first increase since December-15, on the back of pickup in energy costs. (Source: Reuters)  China has cut its growth target to 6.5% for 2017 as it pushes through painful reforms to address a rapid build-up in debt, and erects a firewall against financial risks. (Source: Reuters)  China set a budget deficit target of 3% of GDP for 2017, in line with 2016's target, and pledged to clamp down on local government debt risk, the finance ministry said. (Source: Reuters)  Turkey's annual consumer inflation rate rose 10.1% YoY in February17, mainly driven by alcoholic beverages and tobacco prices, which together climbed 21.7%. On MoM basis, inflation climbed 0.81% during the month. (Source: TurkStat) GCC NEWS (Source: Arabian Business)  Emirates NBD Asset Management Limited managed Shari’a compliant real estate investment trust ENBD REIT, is planning to raise USD 100mn (AED 367mn) to USD 125mn (AED 458.8mn) by listing shares on Nasdaq Dubai exchange on 22nd March-17, Tariq Bin Hendi, director of ENBD REIT, said. (Source: Arabian Business)  Ras Al Khaimah’s hospitality market soared in 2016 by recording a 10.9% YoY increase in full year visitor arrivals and a 9.8% YoY growth in the average occupancy rate, taking the annual occupancy to 71%, according to CBRE Group. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector saw a further pickup in growth momentum in February-17, with business conditions improving at the quickest rate since August-15, according to Emirates NBD Saudi Arabia PMI. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia's Commission for Tourism and National Heritage has set aside SAR 397mn (USD 105.9mn) for 2017 to support a new lending program for hospitality and tourism projects. (Source: Gulf Times)  India’s Larsen and Toubro’s (L&T) power transmission and distribution unit won a USD 175mn contract for turnkey construction of the 400/132 kV Qabel Grid Station and associated works in Oman. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain's fiscal deficit will fall only marginally to 12.3% of GDP in 2017 from 13.6% in 2016 as oil prices settle well below the country's breakeven figure, according to ratings agency Fitch. The agency affirmed Bahrain's long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings at 'BB+' with a stable outlook. (Source: Arabian Business)  Nogaholding, the investment arm of Bahrain's National Oil and Gas Authority, has substantial expansion plans and expects to invest in excess of USD 7bn across several separate ventures in the next five years, Bahrain’s Minister of Oil said. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Three GCC based retailers, namely UAE’s Emke Group and mall operator Majid Al Futtaim, along with Saudi based food firm Savola were ranked 153rd, 160th and 240th respectively in a Deloitte report mentioning world’s top retailers. (Source: Arabian Business)  The total Islamic banking assets in the UAE have increased to about AED 520bn (USD 141.5bn), which is around 7% of the global total and accounts for ~20% of AED 2.6tn of the total assets held with state's banks. (Source: Arabian Business)  UAE, with a coverage of 93.7%, has topped the global list of countries with the highest Fiber to the Home (FTTH) penetration for 2016, according to top industry body FTTH Council. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Business conditions in the UAE’s non-oil private sector continued to improve in February-17, with a sharp and accelerated increase in inflows of new work underpinning a robust expansion of output, according to Emirates NBD UAE PMI. (Source: Trade Arabia) The recently approved Law No 2 of 2017 will help enhance the investment climate of Qatar, which is poised to transform itself into a regional hub for arbitration, an official of the Qatar International Centre for Conciliation & Arbitration (QICCA) said. (Source: Gulf Times)  A research released ahead of this year’s Arabian Travel Market (ATM), showed that Qatar will look to generate 5.2% of its GDP through tourism over the coming years, creating 98,000 jobs and managing an inventory of 63,000 hotel rooms. (Source: Trade Arabia)  QInvest acquired a plot of land on South Boulevard in Charlotte, North Carolina, US, in conjunction with a GCC investor. The necessary regulatory approvals have been received and the project is already well underway, with completion expected in August-18. (Source: Gulf    The Dubai Airport Freezone Authority (Dafza) performed strongly in 2016, achieving a 16% YoY growth in its net profit and posting a 2% YoY growth in its total revenues. (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS Dubai’s digitization initiatives could generate a potential AED 17.9bn (USD 4.9bn) in value by 2019, according to technology giant Cisco. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai based Bait Al Kandora, a menswear clothing designer, announced an agreement with HBS Investment, under which the company will sell its 25% stake to the latter, which post the sale, would be the second largest shareholder in the business. (Source: Arabian Times)  Barwa Real Estate Company will keep exploring investment opportunities to ensure profitable revenues, the company’s chairman said. He further added that its low-cost warehousing project Mustawdaat as well as Phase I of Madinat Al Mawater are slated to be completed by 2017. (Source: Gulf Times)  Al Meera Consumer Good Company’s net profit surged 23% YoY to QAR 199.2mn in 2016 while sales hit a record high of QAR 2.6bn, up 6.3% YoY. The group’s gross shop rental income recorded a substantial 37.6% YoY rise in 2016 reaching QAR 69.3mn. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Airways confirmed plans to launch services to Yanbu and Tabuk in Saudi Arabia with three-weekly flights beginning in May-17 and June-17 respectively. The additional destinations take Qatar Airways’ total network connectivity within the Gulf kingdom to 10 destinations. Business)    Dubai Holding signed an agreement with Dubai Municipality to develop the largest public park in the emirate. The park stretches across an area of 1,430,000 sq. m in Dubailand and after completion, will increase public space in Dubai by 17%. (Source: Arabian Business) The construction work of Dubai Expo 2020's three main themed districts will start by the end of March-17 following the award of a USD 600mn contract to Al Futtaim Carillion. The contract announced is the first of AED 11bn worth of construction contracts that Expo 2020 Dubai plans to award in 2017. (Source: Arabian Business) Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Authority (ADWEA) aims to close a financing package for an AED 3.2bn (USD 872mn) solar power plant by (Source: Arabian Business) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 6 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0652 USD/QAR 3.6415 114.0400 EUR/QAR 3.8789 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2321 JPY/QAR 0.0319 USD/CHF 1.0079 GBP/QAR 4.4867 USD/CAD 1.3380 CHF/QAR 3.6130 AUD/USD 0.7596 CAD/QAR 2.7216 NZD/USD 0.7031 AUD/QAR 2.7661 USD/INR 66.3050 INR/QAR 0.0549 USD/TRY 3.7045 TRY/QAR 0.9830 USD/ZAR 13.0275 ZAR/QAR 0.2795 USD/BRL 3.1155 BRL/QAR 1.1688 FX Commentary The US Dollar index closed 0.7% lower on profit taking on Friday after markets priced in the interest rate hike in March, reacting little to the hawkish stance by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who said that rates are likely to rise faster this year. The euro rebounded from recent weakness after a poll showed French far-right candidate Marine Le Pen's chances in the country's presidential election dimming. The CAD made a slight gain against its US counterpart as rising oil prices lent support to weak sentiment due to the divergence in the policy views of US and Canada’s central banks. A higher than expected GDP growth posted by the nation, lent further support to CAD. The GBP was lower as both Manufacturing and Services PMIs missed expectations, and Construction PMI continued to point to weak expansion. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.68 0.71 0.83 1.10 1.81 (0.42) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.11) 1.28 1.42 1.61 1.88 2.60 SAIBOR NA 0.93 1.36 1.77 2.21 EIBOR 0.65 0.73 0.97 1.39 2.14 BMIBOR 0.55 0.73 1.23 1.70 2.18 NA NA 1.19 1.44 2.06 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.56% 4.0% 2.74% 3.10% 3.47% 2.00% 2.30% 2.47% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 1.86% 2.0% 1.30% 3.07% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 25.4 (0.8) Turkey 243.5 (1.9) UK 28.5 (4.5) Brazil 218.1 (40.1) Germany 20.2 4.2 Egypt 338.8 (57.3) France 61.9 33.1 Abu Dhabi 170.4 34.7 2.0% 2.45% 2.28% 2.11% 2.69% 1.65% 2.17% 1.0% 0.0% 1.73% 1.50% 1.29% Italy 0.92% 2 Yrs Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 42.8 (28.2) Bahrain 218.4 (164.1) 1,031.5 (3.2) Dubai 117.0 (40.0) Russia 165.9 (48.7) Qatar 62.8 (28.2) Japan 24.0 (8.1) Saudi Arabia 92.7 (56.3) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders Period Survey Prior Jan F 1.00% 1.80% 18:00 US Factory Orders 18:00 US Durables Ex Transportation Jan 1.00% 1.30% Jan F 0.10% (0.20%) 18:00 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 18:00 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Jan F -- (0.40%) Jan F -- 11:30 Germany (0.60%) Markit Germany Construction PMI Feb -- 12:10 52 Germany Markit Germany Retail PMI Feb -- 50.3 12:10 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Feb -- 50.1 12:10 France Markit France Retail PMI Feb -- 53.1 12:10 Italy Markit Italy Retail PMI Feb -- 45.6 02:50 Japan Official Reserve Assets Feb -- $1231.6b 12:00 UK New Car Registrations YoY Feb -- 2.90% 03:01 UK BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY Feb (0.50%) (0.60%) Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA 2.6 442.8 363.9 Kuwait Financial Centre Sak Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 6 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.7 0.0 0.0 7.7 1.6 5.0 4.9 3.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.7 5.8 2.1 4.8 3.1 3.6 4.8 5.0 3.4 4.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 7.3 5.3 5.3 4.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.3 1.7 6.2 4.2 3.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 3.3 1.8 3.7 5.1 2.2 6.3 3.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 5.7 4.2 3.3 0.0 2.7 2.9 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.3 P/B Ratio (x) 1.5 0.8 2.3 1.1 2.5 0.9 2.4 0.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.7 1.9 2.3 1.1 1.9 2.3 1.5 2.6 1.4 2.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.8 3.9 0.8 1.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.4 2.1 1.4 3.1 2.8 1.5 1.8 2.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.8 2.5 0.6 3.0 1.7 0.9 1.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.1 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.7 P/E Ratio (x) 11.2 24.5 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.6 85.9 12.7 14.7 (H) (‫)م‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 11.2 13.4 11.3 24.7 12.2 35.6 7.2 18.1 43.4 16.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 11.0 13.0 6.6 13.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 80.5 23.6 19.9 16.4 25.9 11.9 11.8 22.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 12.4 19.9 16.4 16.2 19.1 9.6 22.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 12.4 16.4 15.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.8 15.8 13.6 13.8 14.0 15.3 EPS (QR) 3.3 1.3 0.1 4.1 0.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 9.1 5.2 13.4 0.4 5.6 2.3 11.7 10.0 0.7 9.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.0 5.1 12.8 5.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.4 4.9 0.8 14.0 2.2 4.1 7.3 2.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.4 3.7 2.5 4.2 3.1 4.1 0.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.8 1.2 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.5 1.7 6.2 2.6 2.9 BV/Share (QR) 25.5 39.7 9.1 36.3 25.2 16.8 16.9 20.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 60.3 37.5 65.0 9.8 36.4 36.1 56.5 70.1 21.6 77.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.7 16.8 108.5 44.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 20.4 55.4 11.4 75.2 20.4 32.7 47.2 22.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 21.5 29.7 72.8 23.0 35.2 46.9 11.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 30.8 16.9 69.3 5.6 23.1 25.9 15.4 123.9 33.3 26.5 Stock Price (QR) 37.0 31.8 20.8 39.0 62.3 15.0 40.8 16.9 9.9 101.9 69.2 150.7 10.5 82.4 84.0 179.8 29.7 158.6 9.9 11.0 65.8 85.1 15.1 29.0 115.4 15.8 229.9 57.6 48.4 85.7 20.9 18.0 74.0 41.0 68.5 39.7 15.6 14.2 21.9 107.8 9.3 55.3 23.5 86.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4