GCC Daily Market Update - 6 February

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 6 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,648.9 (113.2) 24,345.8 (1,175.2) 6,495.9 (264.4) 7,335.0 (108.5) 12,687.5 (97.7) 5,285.8 (79.2) 116,852.7 (1,266.7) 22,682.1 (592.5) 32,245.2 (356.6) 3,487.5 25.4 34,757.2 (309.6) (4.1) (4.6) (3.9) (1.5) (0.8) (1.5) (1.1) (2.6) (1.1) 0.7 (0.9) (6.2) (6.9) (6.5) (2.6) (3.8) (3.6) (2.2) (1.8) (2.0) 0.2 (3.4) (0.9) (1.5) 1.6 (4.6) (1.8) (0.5) 1.3 (0.4) 7.8 5.5 2.1 8,837.7 7,587.4 4,581.9 3,378.1 6,712.2 5,051.4 1,344.3 1,669.8 3,632.3 (121.7) (20.9) (2.6) (7.6) 41.4 (6.2) (10.6) (0.3) (115.6) (1.4) (0.3) (0.1) (0.2) 0.6 (0.1) (0.8) (0.0) (3.1) (4.0) (0.8) (0.4) (0.5) 0.4 1.0 (0.5) 0.3 (5.2) 3.7 5.0 4.2 0.2 4.7 (0.9) 0.9 2.8 (1.1) 67.6 64.2 2.7 1,333.0 322.1 (1.0) (1.3) (0.1) (0.7) 3.4 (1.4) (2.0) (3.5) (0.1) 1.1 (3.2) (2.1) (7.5) (0.4) (0.5) (0.0) 4.9 (6.2) 1.8 (3.7) Global Most of the global equity markets ended lower yesterday, as rising US bond yields continued to weigh on market sentiments. US equity markets continued their downward trajectory. The S&P 500 ended 4.1% lower, its worst one-day decline in 6 years, weighed by Financials, Healthcare, Industrials and Energy stocks retreating over 4%. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended 1.6% lower, as the failure of Angela Merkel’s political party to clinch a coalition deal before Sunday’s deadline dented investor sentiment. The UK benchmark inched 1.5% lower, tracking selloff in global markets. In Asia, Japanese benchmark ended 2.6% lower, as the JPY strengthened amid safe haven buying from investors. GCC GCC stocks ended lower during yesterday’s trading session following the weakness in global markets. The Saudi Arabian benchmark ended 0.3% lower, weighed by profit taking in Cement shares. Rabigh Refining & Petrochemical surged 9.9% after the company reported a significant rise in its Q4-17 earnings and revenue. Mediterranean & Gulf Cooperative Insurance and Reinsurance further declined 9.4% as CMA said to cancel trade in the shares after the firm was prohibited to issue or renew new policies by central bank. The Dubai benchmark ended 0.2%, weighed by weakness in Transportation, Banking and Real Estate stocks. Qatar The QE index declined 1.4% during yesterday’s trading session as gulf institutional investors and local retail investors turned bearish. Trade turnover and volumes increased during the trading session, with Banking, Real Estate and Industrials sectors together accounting for more than 75% of the total volume. Salam International plunged 10% after reporting a net loss for FY-17. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 40 exchanged hands of which, 30 declined, 7 advanced and 3 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.2 1.3 4.3 73.2 DSM 20 14.6 1.3 4.4 65.3 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.6 1.7 3.2 1,213.8 UAE (ADX) 15.7 1.3 4.4 25.4 UAE (DFM) 22.5 1.2 5.2 47.0 Kuwait (KSE) 15.5 1.1 5.2 36.6 Oman (MSM) 11.8 1.0 5.1 8.7 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.8 0.8 5.8 3.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Islamic Bank Qatar German Co Qatar Industrial Manu Al Meera Cons. Goods Widam Food Co Top Losers Salam International Ezdan Holding Group Qatari Investors Group Ooredoo Qatar Gas Transport Close Price 100.5 6.1 44.0 152.0 70.5 6.3 10.3 30.2 87.5 16.8 3.3 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.0 3.4 2.3 2.3 1.7 1.4 3.6 (5.0) 0.7 4.9 12.8 (6.4) (37.5) (7.0) (13.6) 2.6 474.9 3.2 7.1 38.8 30.9 11.3 NA 10.8 15.3 11.7 (0.7) (10.0) (0.5) (4.4) (1.4) (4.4) (3.5) (3.8) (0.6) (3.6) (8.6) (14.4) (17.5) (3.6) 4.3 (46.5) (31.9) (45.6) (17.1) (30.6) 325.4 586.4 195.5 128.0 631.4 NA 16.0 14.9 14.6 11.5 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 9,500 15.0 9,000 8,837.7 8,500 5.0 8,000 7,500 9/Nov 10.0 0.0 23/Nov 7/Dec 21/Dec Index Volume (mn) 4/Jan 18/Jan 1/Feb Index Value Closing Level 2,768.8 5,326.8 2,694.5 3,287.1 1,823.6 1,018.5 1,878.4 1D Change (%) (1.1) (0.7) (2.2) (0.8) (2.9) (3.0) (2.5) Buy (%) 32.3 24.2 56.5 11.0 32.5 43.5 Sell (%) 34.3 24.7 59.0 12.8 28.2 41.0 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 6 , 2018 293.0mn) on infrastructure projects, which includes implementation of 16,000 sanitary drainage connections to homes. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS  US is planning to impose ban on Venezuelan oil imports and might restrict exports of oil or US-refined products to Caracas, Venezuela, US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, stated. (Source: Al Jazeera)  Eurozone’s total retail sales decreased by a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.1% MoM, while it increased by 1.9% YoY in December-17. Thus, the average retail sales increased by 2.6% YoY in 2017. (Source: EC. Europe)  European Central Bank’s (ECB) President, Mario Draghi, believes that the growing volatility in the EUR currency can impact the inflation growth rate and it might take years to meet the 2.0% target. (Source:  Peninsula)  Saudi Arabia based King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology’s Badir Program for Technology Incubators and Accelerators has introduced 3 new technical startups, who has received logistical and consultancy support from the programme. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The Central Bank of Bahrain has issued treasury bills worth BHD 406.0mn at the discount rate of 3.09% and 3.71% for 3 to 12 months. Reuters)    UK’s retail sales increased by 1.4% YoY, while on a like for like basis it rose by 0.6% YoY in January-18. Over the three months ending in January-18, food sales increased by 4.1% YoY while non-food retail sales fell by 0.6% YoY. (Source: BRC) Australia’s central bank has kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. A statement released by the bank, spoke of the need to support the Australian economic growth. (Source: RBA) Australia’s total trade balance deficit decreased by USD 36.0mn over the month to USD 1.4bn in December-17. Exports increased by 2.0% MoM, while imports increased by 6.0% MoM during the same period. (Source: BNA)  Bahrain based Khaleeji Commercial Bank signed a partnership agreement with The Labour Fund Tamkeen to manage BHD 30.0mn (USD 79.5mn) financing portfolio, which is part of Tamkeen’s Business Development Scheme, "Tamweel+". (Source: BNA)  Bahrain Airport Company has issued a public tender for security fencing in order to improve its landside and airside boundary. This is the part of Airport Modernization Program worth USD 1.1bn. (Source: Trade Arabia)  (Source: ABS)      Turkey’s CPI grew by 10.4% YoY in January-18, driven by a 16.0% YoY rise in transportation cost and 11.4% YoY rise in prices in Hotels, cafes and restaurants. (Source: TurkStat) Oman has awarded a residential project construction contract worth USD 67.0mn to India based engineering and construction company, Larsen & Toubro. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman based Ministry of Commerce and Industry is receiving applications for permits to import steel through a single window system known as ‘Bayan’. (Source: Trade Arabia) Turkey’s domestic producer prices grew by 12.1% YoY in January-18, driven by a 14.1% YoY rise in manufacturing sector and a 13.7% YoY rise in mining and quarrying sector. (Source: TurkStat) UAE’s business process outsourcing revenue reached AED 3.2bn (USD 876.9mn) during the year 2017 and is expected to reach USD 976.1mn in 2018 and USD 1.2bn in 2020, according to International Data Corporation report. (Source: Trade Arabia) The Emirates NBD UAE Purchasing Managers’ Index decreased by 1.6% MoM to 56.8 points in January-18, driven by implementation of VAT, which increased the input and output costs. (Source: Emirates NBD Research)  UAE’s government is planning to build 7,200 new homes worth AED 7.0bn (USD 1.9bn) during the next three years. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The implementation of VAT would negatively impact the net operating profits of all the UAE based insurance companies for the financial year 2018, according to S&P Global Rating’s report. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Commercial Bank International has reported 40.0% YoY rise in its net profit to AED 175.0mn (USD 47.6mn) for the financial year 2017, driven by increase in net operating income by 7.0% YoY and decrease of 8.0% YoY impairment charges. (Source: Trade Arabia)  (Source: Kuwait Times) QATAR NEWS  Dubai based buyout company, Abraaj Group, has announced that they have returned the unused capital from its health fund to investors. (Source: Mubasher) France based oil and gas company, Total S.A. has sold 25.0% of its total stake in offshore South African exploration block, 11B/12B, located in the Quteniqua Basin to Qatar Petroleum. (Source: Reuters)  Qatar National Bank has issued international bonds worth USD 1.0bn, maturing in 2020. Bank of America Merrill Lynch would act as bookrunner for the issue. (Source: Reuters)  International Bank of Qatar has reported 11.0% YoY increase in its net profit to QAR 555.1mn, while its total operating income increased by 13.0% YoY for the FY-17. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar National Cement’s FY-17 net income fell 31.2% YoY to QAR 326.9mn. The company’s earnings per share amounted to QAR 5.00 during the same period. (Source: QE)  Salam International Investment ltd. reported a net loss of QAR 89.9mn for the FY-17, as compared to a profit of QAR 119.7mn for FY-16. The company’s loss per share amounted to QAR 0.88 during the same period. (Source: QE)  Aamal Group’s subsidiary, Aamal Trading & Distribution, in colaborating with Al Sraiya Trading & Contracting Qatar and Total Marketing Qatar has introduced the Total’s first truck Pit-stop service center. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar Insurance Group (QIC) signed an agreement with Qatar Rail to allow QIC to access the exterior facades of the Doha Metro’s pedestrian bridge in the West Bay area for promoting its services. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The Emirates NBD Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers’ Index decreased by 7.5% MoM to 53.0 points in January-18, driven by implementation of VAT and cuts to fuel subsidies. (Source: Emirates NBD Research)  Saudi Arabia’s government is planning to spend SAR 1.1bn (USD Qatar Gas announced that it has closed one of its production units due to the leaks in gas pipelines, which took place last week. The shut down of production would not impact the company’s supplies to Asia.  Dubai International Airport has reported that the annual number of international passengers reached 88.2mn during the year 2017. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait Financial House (KFH) Group’s investment subsidiary, KFH Capital has arranged the issuance of sukuk worth USD 1.0bn for Dubai Islamic Bank, the company’s Chief Investment Banking Officer stated. Australia’s retail sales decreased by a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.5% MoM in December-17, driven by monthly decrease in household goods by 2.6% and other retailing by 1.8%. (Source: ABS) GCC NEWS  Saudi Arabia plans to spend SAR 120bn by 2030 on subsidized home loans for borrowers, in order to create an expanded private-sector role in a mortgage market dominated by the government. (Source: The (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 6 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2397 USD/QAR 3.6415 109.0900 EUR/QAR 4.5144 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3989 JPY/QAR 0.0334 USD/CHF 0.9317 GBP/QAR 5.0941 USD/CAD 1.2539 CHF/QAR 3.9084 AUD/USD 0.7878 CAD/QAR 2.9041 NZD/USD 0.7265 AUD/QAR 2.8688 USD/INR 63.5675 INR/QAR 0.0573 USD/TRY 3.7905 TRY/QAR 0.9607 USD/ZAR 12.1290 ZAR/QAR 0.3002 USD/BRL 3.2534 BRL/QAR 1.1193 FX Commentary The USD ended higher against the basket of major currencies yesterday with dollar index up 0.4% at 89.556. The currency extended the gains after Friday’s encouraging US jobs data and rising treasury yields in the economy. The CAD ended lower against its US counterpart as oil prices declined. The outlook of further interest rate hike by Bank of Canada also impacted the currency. The GBP retreated against the greenback, on account of data showing that the UK service sector activity missed market expectations. The JPY inched higher against the USD as the investors' appetite for safe haven assets increased, following recent global equity sell-off. The EUR pared its losses against the USD, after the European Central Bank Chief, pointed out risks of rising currency market volatility. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.44 1.47 1.58 1.79 2.29 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 2.20 2.27 2.42 2.70 3.02 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.60 1.67 1.89 2.28 2.0% EIBOR 1.14 1.40 1.60 1.83 2.63 BMIBOR 1.30 1.55 2.10 2.30 2.90 NA NA 1.75 1.94 2.38 KIBOR 2.58% 1.96% 4.63% 3.28% 3.37% 3.45% 2.36% 2.55% 2.65% 2.97% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 24.3 (5.0) Turkey 169.4 UK 17.0 (1.3) Brazil 159.0 (42.3) Germany 10.8 (3.7) Egypt 272.2 (105.4) 2.22% 2.55% 2.45% 2.65% 2.0% 1.0% 2.34% 2.14% 1.95% 2.77% 2.65% France 1.48% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change (5.6) 18.5 (0.9) Abu Dhabi 52.4 (2.6) Italy 100.6 (36.1) Bahrain 251.7 6.5 Greece 323.2 (291.3) Dubai 109.7 (10.3) Russia 108.1 (49.8) Qatar 89.4 (3.9) Japan 18.4 (9.3) Saudi Arabia 78.4 (13.4) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 10:00 Germany Factory Orders MoM Dec 0.70% (0.40%) 10:00 Germany Factory Orders WDA YoY Dec 3.10% 8.70% 16:30 Canada Int'l Merchandise Trade Dec (2.32b) (2.54b) 16:30 US Trade Balance Dec ($52.1b) ($50.5b) 03:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings YoY Dec 0.50% 0.90% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 300.5 Salam International Invest. NA NA NA (86.2) NA Qatar & Oman Investment Co 1.2 (65.3) 10.4 (1.2) NA NA Rabigh Refining And Petrochem NA NA NA 641.0 250.4 (9.3) Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Dev NA NA NA 320.7 760.0 53.0 329.9 4.8 9.9 88.6 266.0 164.7 Saudi Advanced Industries NA NA NA 9.8 356.6 (0.1) Ras Al-Khaimah National Ins. NA NA NA 13.8 (9.9) 140.1 Kuwait Business Town Real NA NA NA 1.5 (21.4) 135.8 Osos Holding Group Co 0.1 NA (6.5) 0.2 NA (55.4) Commercial Bank Int’l Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 6 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 1st February 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 3.3 5.7 5.0 5.1 0.0 4.3 6.6 4.4 6.2 4.5 6.0 5.2 5.9 4.7 6.0 0.0 11.5 6.0 6.2 6.1 7.1 5.3 4.9 3.7 4.1 4.0 2.3 6.8 5.9 4.1 4.5 4.3 2.9 3.3 6.2 3.2 6.6 4.4 0.0 7.4 5.3 3.7 0.0 3.1 4.1 5.4 5.2 5.2 4.4 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.7 1.7 0.9 1.3 0.8 2.3 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.9 0.9 1.5 1.1 2.2 2.3 1.0 1.7 1.1 0.5 3.7 0.6 1.5 0.7 1.0 0.6 2.0 1.3 2.4 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.7 0.7 0.7 1.8 0.7 2.5 1.3 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 10.5 44.2 24.0 9.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 8.7 14.9 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.7 11.1 9.5 22.7 10.9 6.5 30.3 15.4 31.6 15.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.8 11.7 5.6 12.8 11.7 (H) ( ) 11.7 25.7 17.0 12.8 2.2 10.8 12.3 15.4 29.9 9.0 33.4 62.3 13.3 31.3 11.2 17.9 50.5 9.9 14.3 16.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.4 11.4 12.6 24.5 15.2 13.3 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 2.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 5.5 14.2 0.4 5.6 10.3 2.5 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 6.0 13.1 5.1 0.7 -0.5 0.5 4.3 0.9 14.7 15.5 4.1 5.6 2.6 0.4 1.5 1.5 0.7 4.2 1.4 3.4 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.0 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.7 1.5 2.8 1.9 2.9 BV/Share (QR) 26.4 42.6 8.4 34.9 24.0 17.5 17.6 19.5 8.4 64.7 45.0 73.4 8.6 40.0 62.2 35.6 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 13.8 19.0 113.5 43.6 12.5 19.5 10.4 55.1 11.4 78.5 21.4 32.4 46.7 24.4 19.5 20.4 28.9 69.8 22.8 35.1 47.5 11.4 12.7 30.8 17.4 71.1 5.3 23.4 27.9 15.4 117.8 32.5 28.2 Stock Price (QR) 33.5 28.4 14.5 32.9 30.5 13.3 40.3 9.9 7.0 99.1 61.0 135.7 8.1 66.4 77.0 153.0 21.1 115.8 6.3 7.0 70.5 73.0 8.5 19.0 6.2 109.7 14.7 188.0 33.3 44.0 68.0 13.3 13.9 51.0 46.0 56.3 37.9 11.4 8.0 17.0 95.9 7.1 42.0 18.5 67.5 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4