GCC Daily Market Update - 6 August

Transcription

1. August 6 , 2020 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) MSCI GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 3,327.8 27,201.5 11,125.4 6,104.7 12,660.3 4,933.3 1,091.8 22,514.9 25,102.5 3,377.6 37,663.3 21.3 373.1 28.9 68.7 59.4 43.8 4.6 (58.8) 155.9 5.9 (24.6) 0.6 1.4 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 (0.3) 0.6 0.2 (0.1) 1.7 2.9 2.0 3.5 2.8 3.1 (3.1) 3.7 2.1 2.0 0.2 3.0 (4.7) 27.4 (19.1) (4.4) (17.5) (4.6) (4.8) (11.0) 10.7 (8.7) 9,322.0 7,470.3 4,305.9 2,079.4 5,012.2 3,568.1 1,292.4 481.8 4,774.7 (46.2) 11.1 (12.1) 0.6 7.8 9.8 1.9 (0.8) 36.6 (0.5) 0.2 (0.3) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 (0.2) 0.8 (0.5) 0.1 0.0 1.4 0.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 2.2 (10.6) (11.0) (15.2) (24.8) (20.2) (10.4) (19.7) (15.4) 11.0 45.2 42.2 2.2 2,031.1 291.7 0.7 0.5 (0.0) 29.9 2.3 1.7 1.2 (0.1) 1.5 0.8 4.5 4.6 23.4 3.5 1.3 (31.5) (31.0) 1.4 33.4 3.8 Source: Bloomberg Global Transatlantic market ended on a higher note yesterday underpinned by release of strong corporate earnings. In the US equity market, all major indexes ended higher on the back of expansion in US service sector activity. Also, investor’s optimism on the US stimulus package boosted sentiments. The S&P 500 ender higher by 0.6% amid gains in Industrial and Material stocks. The European market ended higher, as rally in commodity stocks lifted the index but the gains were capped by losses in defensive stocks. The Stoxx Europe 600 declined 0.5% to end at 365.2. Mining and Travel & Leisure stocks gained on the index. In Asia, Nikkei index closed 0.3% lower. Weak earnings results showed the economic setback caused by the pandemic. Also, firmer yen impacted the exports of the country. Telecommunications and Consumer Discretionary stocks were notable decliners on the index. GCC Most GCC market ended on a positive note yesterday. The Saudi Arabia index increased by 0.2% resuming trading after a week. Gains in Software & Services stocks and Pharma, Biotech & Life Science stocks lifted the index. Dubai’s index closed flat, amid gains in Telecommunication stocks and Services stocks. The Abu Dhabi’s index decreased by 0.3%, as Banking stocks retreated on the index. The First Abu Dhabi Bank sold CNY 3.6bn (USD 465.5mn) in a five year Farmosa bond with an interest rate of 3.4%. Qatar The QE index declined 0.5% yesterday. Selling pressure on the part of foreign institutional investors weighed on the benchmark. Trade turnover increased while volume decreased on the bourse with Banks & Financial Services, Industrial and Consumer Goods & Services stocks accounting for 73.3% of the total trading volume. Out of the 47 listed stocks, 45 exchanged hands, 21 advanced, 19 declined while 5 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW GCC Fundamentals Qatar All share P/E (x) P/B (x) 16.0 1.4 Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) 4.0 Qatar DSM Index 124.7 9,600 DSM 20 15.2 1.4 4.3 91.5 9,200 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 23.7 1.8 3.4 1,398.8 8,800 UAE (ADX) 14.9 1.2 5.7 34.5 8,400 UAE (DFM) 7.1 0.7 4.6 81.8 8,000 10-May 9,322.0 200.0 0.0 24-May 7-Jun 21-Jun Index Volume (mn) Kuwait (KSE) 16.2 1.2 4.0 82.9 Oman (MSM) 10.4 0.8 6.7 4.2 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.8 0.8 5.5 2.4 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar First Bank Qatari Investors Group Al Khalij Comm. Bank Qatar Navigation Medicare Group Top Losers Qatar General Ins. & Re Aamal Company Qatar Elctrcty & Water Ooredoo Qatar German Co. Close Price 1.5 2.3 1.6 6.0 7.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 10.0 5.6 3.2 3.1 2.3 80.8 29.2 22.1 (0.9) (11.2) 2.0 0.7 16.4 6.6 2.3 (0.2) (0.0) (0.5) (0.2) (0.0) (9.4) (4.2) (3.0) (2.2) (1.3) (18.3) (9.3) 1.9 (7.5) 301.5 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 47.9 13.3 36.8 (1.9) 8.5 12,653.3 NA 8,815.4 28.5 1,730.6 9.6 5,226.5 12.9 1,647.0 29.1 (41.8) 2.0 NA (0.8) 12,455.8 29.0 13.0 856.1 12.4 2.8 2,024.1 12.5 256.3 3,479.7 NA 400.0 5-Jul 19-Jul Index Value 2-Aug Closing Level 4,057.2 7,434.0 2,595.6 1,999.7 1,579.8 899.5 2,882.2 1D Change (%) (0.2) (0.1) (0.6) (1.8) 0.4 (1.4) 0.6 Buy (%) 33.2 23.5 56.7 13.5 29.8 43.3 Sell (%) 29.8 11.6 41.4 11.1 47.5 58.6 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. August 6 , 2020 GLOBAL NEWS        The US President said that he may himself append the payroll tax to help his administration to assist the economy amid coronavirus shutdown as the tax has faced opposition during discussions on the next relief bill. (Source: The New York Times) The US Treasury Department announced that it will sell notes and bonds worth USD 112.0bn next week and also plans to continue to move more of its funding to longer-dated debt in Q4-20, as it finances methods to offset the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. It anticipates its debt requirements to be moderate but remain higher following the borrowings of USD 2.8tn in Q2-20. (Source: Nasdaq) Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President, Robert Kaplan said that the economic recovery has been muted by the resurgence of coronavirus infections and the Congress should support the economy by continuing to offer improved unemployment benefits and aid to state and local governments. (Source: The New York Times) The European Commission said that it had extended anti-dumping duties of between 17.2% and 27.9% on imports of corrosion-resistant steel from China to prevent producers evading existing duties by slightly varying the material they export. The EU had set the duties in February-18 to counter unfairly low prices. (Source: Financial Post) The Bank of England is expected to announce today that it plans to keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.1% and its bond purchasing stimulus program constant at GBP 745.0bn (USD 980.0bn), according to sources. The central bank will hold off from taking any measures presently as it wants to see the degree of increase in unemployment. (Source: Reuters) Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda cautioned that economic activity could be restricted substantially again if stringent public health measures are reinstated to stop a further spread of the coronavirus pandemic. He said that the nation was not entering into deflation and that the central bank would maintain its efforts to achieve its 2.0% inflation target. (Source: Financial Post) China’s central bank is not required to increase its policy easing as an economic recovery is soon expected to happen and further stimulus could result in property and stock bubbles, according to its policy adviser, Ma Jun. The nation’s economy could increase by over 4.0% in Q3-20 and more than 6.0% in Q4-20, taking the 2020 growth to around 2.0%. (Source: Reuters)  Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DAE) reported a decline of 38.3% YoY in H1-20 net profit to USD 121.7mn. The Revenue declined by 8.5% YoY to USD 672.6mn. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Ruler of Ajman has issued law regulating the management of joint and regular facilities as per the best services quality standards in the emirate. It will also supervise sub-property owners’ committees, to facilitate them to conduct their work, attain transparency and prevent conflicts of interest when contracting services suppliers in joint facilities. (Source: Emirates News Agency)  Saudi Arabia’s Samba Financial Group reported an increase of 11.5% YoY in H1-20 net profit to SAR 2.2bn (USD 0.6bn). Total Assets grew by 18.6% YoY to SAR 279.3bn (USD 74.4bn). (Source: Saudi Stock Exchange)  Alinma Bank reported a decline of 28.2% YoY in H1-20 net profit to SAR 943.0mn (USD 251.3mn). Total Assets increased by 15.2% YoY to SAR 142.2bn (USD 37.9bn). (Source: Saudi Stock Exchange)  Moody’s Investors Service has affirmed the company's Insurance Financial Strength Rating (IFSR) of Saudi Reinsurance Company (Saudi Re) at A3 with a stable outlook. The affirmation reflects the company’s strong brand and market position in Saudi Arabia and increasing presence across target markets of Asia and Africa. (Source: Zawya)  Oman’s Supreme Committee has decided to remove lockdown and lower the curfew hours at night in all governorates, except for Dhofar, from 8th August-20. (Source: Zawya)  Bahrain’s economy is forecasted to recover in 2021 and report a growth of 3.5%, according to a report by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG). (Source: GDN Online)  The Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB) announced that the 6-monthly issue of the short-term Islamic leasing bonds, Sukuk Al Ijara, has been oversubscribed by 358.0%, with subscriptions valued at BHD 93.2mn (USD 245.8mn) for the BHD 26.0mn (USD 68.6mn) issue. The expected return on the issue is 2.50%. (Source: Bahrain News Agency) QATAR NEWS  South Korean ambassador, Chang-mo Kim praised the recentlyannounced Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Law stating that it would benefit both nations by further improving trade and economic ties. South Korean companies are awaiting for complete guidelines on its execution such as scope of its application and necessities to be fulfilled by the private companies. (Source: Gulf Times)  Hamad, Doha and Al Ruwais ports reported 16.0% MoM increase in the number of ships calling on these ports to 276 in July-20, specifying regularity being restored in Qatar’s maritime sector though challenges from coronavirus pandemic remains. The Container handling through the three ports increased by 5.9% MoM and 1.4% YoY to 123,156 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units). (Source: Gulf Times)  The CEO of Doha Bank announced the selection of Bank of Singapore as a partner to offer wealth solutions to clients globally. Bank of Singapore is one of the fastest developing banks in Asia with an AUM of over USD 114.0bn. (Source: Gulf Times)  Baladna Company (Baladna) reported a net profit of QAR 44.2mn (USD 12.1mn) for Q2-20 compared to QAR 83.9mn (USD 22.8mn) in previous year. The Revenue was QAR 205.0mn (USD 55.9mn) compared to QAR 441.9mn (USD 120.5mn). (Source: Qatar Stock Exchange)  Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance company reported an increase of 14.7% YoY in H1-20 net profit to QAR 21.4mn (USD 5.8mn). Total takaful revenue increased by 1.8% YoY to QAR 69.1mn (USD 18.8mn). (Source: GCC NEWS  The UAE reported an increase of 1.9% YTD in the total number of business licences issued at the end of July-20 to 665,246, according to the National Economic Register. Dubai accounts for around 46.0% of the nation’s total licensed businesses, Abu Dhabi for 23.0% and Sharjah for 14.0%. (Source: Emirates News Agency)  Consumer spending in the UAE grew by 65.0% in June-20 as compared to March-20, according to the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority (FCSA). (Source: Trade Arabia)  The Central Bank of UAE signed an agreement with the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) to offer clearing and payment settlement services in Emirati Dirhams (AED) via the "Buna" platform for Arab payments. Participating banks in Arab nations will be able to settle cross-border payments in AED and lower costs. (Source: Emirates News Agency)  Dubai Airport Freezone Authority (Dafza) reported an increase of 54.0% YoY in general exports during Q1-20 resulting in huge trade surplus worth AED 3.1bn (USD 844.0mn). China accounted for largest share of 21.0% worth AED 7.7bn (USD 2.1bn), followed by India at 16.6% worth AED 6.1bn (USD 1.7bn). (Source: Trade Arabia) Qatar Stock Exchange)  Commercial Bank has won The Banker Award for "Innovation in Digital Banking" in the Middle East 2020 for its digital services in the region. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. August 6 , 2020 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1893 USD/QAR 3.6415 105.6000 EUR/QAR 4.3308 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3144 JPY/QAR 0.0345 USD/CHF 0.9085 GBP/QAR 4.7864 USD/CAD 1.3266 CHF/QAR 4.0083 AUD/USD 0.7192 CAD/QAR 2.7450 NZD/USD 0.6647 AUD/QAR 2.6190 USD/INR 74.4350 INR/QAR 0.0489 USD/TRY 7.0477 TRY/QAR 0.5167 USD/ZAR 17.3242 ZAR/QAR 0.2102 USD/BRL 5.2927 BRL/QAR 0.6880 FX Commentary The USD dollar decreased against the basket of major currencies yesterday, with the dollar index settling 0.7% lower to 92.8. The dollar weakened as risk sentiments rebounded in the market on positive corporate earnings and expectations of more stimulus measures from the US government. The EUR advanced against the greenback, on the back of release of better than expected Euro zone Markit PMI Composite data for July-20 and Euro zone Retail sales data for June-20. The GBP gained, broadly due to weakness in USD amid stand-off on the US coronavirus relief package and sinking US bond yields. The CAD rose to a five-months high against USD, on the back of higher oil prices but the gains were capped after domestic data indicated a wider trade deficit. The AUD rose, as investors are in a risk taking mode and are investing in riskier currencies. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.09 0.11 0.15 0.25 0.45 (0.58) (0.53) (0.52) (0.47) (0.34) QAIBOR 1.01 1.03 1.07 1.18 1.38 SAIBOR NA 0.64 0.74 0.92 1.02 EIBOR 0.14 0.13 0.27 0.59 0.94 BMIBOR 0.65 0.85 1.78 1.92 2.25 NA NA 1.38 1.56 2.13 LIBOR EURIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Source: Bloomberg 1.57% 2.56% 2.0% 1.02% 0.79% 0.12% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Years CDS 1.59% 1.49% 1.45% 1.83% 0.80% 1.0% 0.19% 4.0% 0.22% 5 Yrs Qatar 1.39% 1.69% 0.40% 0.55% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 1.22% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 2.0% Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 0.54% 0.38% 0.26% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Current 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 23.4 6.9 Turkey 599.8 UK 26.0 3.6 Brazil 222.6 87.5 Germany 13.9 NA Egypt 460.6 118.3 Abu Dhabi France 0.0% Spreads 6M Change US 20.8 NA Italy 148.0 (6.9) Greece 156.5 Russia 100.0 Japan 19.1 298.2 53.0 11.9 Bahrain 317.4 111.2 (20.5) Dubai 184.3 62.1 34.3 Qatar 51.9 7.6 (4.4) Saudi Arabia 90.2 24.6 Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 09:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate 11:00 Italy Industrial Production MoM 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve 09:00 Germany Industrial Production SA MoM Period Survey Prior Aug-06th 0.10% 0.10% 42.10% Jun 5.00% Aug-01st 1,400k 1,434k Jul-31st -- 582.7b Jun 8.00% 7.80% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) Samba Financial Group 3,024.4 12.8 17.0 1,273.1 19.6 67.5 Alinma Bank 1,628.9 (2.2) (14.1) 370.3 (41.9) (27.2) National Bank Of Ras Al-Khai 1,186.3 (1.9) 0.7 153.1 (43.2) (40.2) 512.2 (15.9) (14.5) (51.5) NA NA 1,195.8 (3.1) (18.3) 67.4 (37.5) (55.8) 36.5 Saudi Ground Services Co. Aramex Abu Dhabi National Insurance QoQ (%) 437.0 0.6 4.6 122.6 NA Al Khaleej Takaful Group 25.3 13.1 22.2 16.2 12.5 NA Dubai Insurance Company 72.8 (5.1) 65.1 22.1 (9.3) 21.4 Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. August 6 , 2020 th QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 29 July 2020) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Baladna Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed QAMCO Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 4.6 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 5.7 5.5 0.0 3.3 5.2 3.3 2.4 3.7 1.2 7.1 3.8 4.4 3.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 5.7 4.5 5.2 0.0 0.0 5.1 3.4 0.1 4.6 2.5 5.6 8.2 4.3 2.7 7.7 7.5 0.0 6.1 5.7 6.3 0.0 0.0 4.3 1.7 3.7 4.0 3.8 4.0 3.6 5.1 4.0 3.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 1.0 2.9 0.8 1.6 0.9 2.2 0.7 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.4 1.0 1.9 1.5 0.5 2.1 3.0 1.6 2.1 9.7 0.5 3.5 2.3 1.8 0.6 0.9 0.5 1.5 1.8 0.8 2.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.4 2.5 0.7 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.7 1.7 0.5 1.0 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 11.3 8.5 (M) (ç) 10.0 81.1 8.5 13.5 16.8 (M) (ç) 12.5 13.4 12.4 37.4 12.3 82.5 9.7 27.7 20.0 44.1 17.1 (M) (ç) (M) (ç) 15.5 17.3 21.7 15.7 62.9 8.6 29.6 28.5 (H) (ç) 12.8 26.5 13.8 17.1 23.6 15.3 11.3 19.8 (M) (ç) 13.9 23.5 7.8 (H) (ç) 25.0 13.7 26.5 12.6 36.2 14.5 12.5 14.4 12.7 13.7 15.3 EPS (QR) 0.3 0.5 (M) (ç) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 (M) (ç) 1.3 0.6 1.5 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.9 (M) (ç) (M) (ç) 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 (M) (ç) 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 BV/Share (QR) 2.6 4.4 0.7 3.0 2.5 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.7 7.1 3.9 7.7 0.9 4.2 1.1 5.6 3.4 6.3 2.1 7.9 0.2 0.8 2.0 6.7 3.2 1.3 1.9 1.0 5.3 1.2 1.0 7.8 2.2 3.3 4.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.2 5.6 2.4 2.8 5.1 1.2 1.1 3.1 1.8 7.0 1.0 3.6 3.1 1.7 12.0 3.4 2.8 Stock Price (QR) 3.3 4.1 1.9 2.4 3.9 1.6 3.9 0.9 1.4 16.1 8.2 18.0 0.8 1.7 2.8 7.3 19.2 3.3 16.1 2.4 0.5 6.8 15.0 0.8 1.7 0.5 7.8 2.1 0.9 16.9 2.2 2.7 3.7 1.8 1.0 2.0 2.2 6.2 3.2 1.4 0.9 1.2 6.7 1.3 5.0 2.8 5.9 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫قامكو‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above-mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4