GCC Daily Market Update - 5 January

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 5 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,270.8 19,942.2 4,937.2 7,189.7 11,584.3 4,899.4 76,143.6 19,594.2 22,134.5 3,158.8 26,633.1 12.9 60.4 25.9 11.9 0.1 0.1 (474.6) 479.8 (15.9) 22.9 (10.1) 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 (0.6) 2.5 (0.1) 0.7 (0.0) 1.4 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 (2.6) 2.5 0.6 1.8 0.0 1.4 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 (2.6) 2.5 0.6 1.8 0.0 10,688.8 7,198.1 4,570.1 3,617.4 5,787.8 5,756.8 1,207.7 1,598.1 2,937.4 88.8 (52.7) (20.2) 15.1 12.8 24.2 (3.5) 26.0 21.2 0.8 (0.7) (0.4) 0.4 0.2 0.4 (0.3) 1.7 0.7 2.4 (0.2) 0.5 2.5 0.7 (0.4) (1.0) 1.7 1.1 2.4 (0.2) 0.9 2.5 0.7 (0.4) (1.0) 2.1 1.3 56.5 53.3 3.3 1,165.3 255.7 1.0 0.9 (0.1) 3.3 6.8 1.8 1.8 (1.8) 0.3 2.7 (1.0) (1.1) (12.7) 1.2 2.0 (1.0) (1.1) (12.7) 1.2 2.0 Source: Bloomberg Global Most Global indices ended in green on Wednesday. US benchmark indices closed higher as it witnessed broad based buying across all sector as slew of strong data from China and Europe helped US equities advance. Consumer Discretionary stocks were among the gainers supported by advances in automakers- General Motors and Ford, both rising over 4% after posting better-than-expected US sales in December. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.1% lower dragged down by Commodity stocks, which were pressured on account of profit booking. In Asia, Nikkei was up 2.5% on back of Japan’s strong PMI report. The index was also supported by weaker yen during Asian trading. Shanghai Composite Index added 0.7% buoyed by Rail companies after reports that China will invest about CNY 800.0bn in railways this year. GCC Most GCC stocks rose on Wednesday supported by foreign funds in the bourses. Saudi Arabia’s TASI, which has little exposure to international funds, underperformed its peers, closing 0.7% lower for the day. Petrochemical stocks were the main drag as oil prices plunged ~2.0% in the overnight US session. Dubai main index recouped early losses to close 0.4% higher. Dubai Islamic Bank closed 0.4% higher after saying it had completed the sale of its stake in Jordan Dubai Islamic Bank to Bank Al Etihad and Etihad Islamic Investment Co. Qatar QE index rose 0.8% on back of broad based buying with 80% of shares in the index advancing. Real Estate developer United Development was the top performer, jumping 4.9% in heavy trade. Buying activity was more pronounced in the Realty, Telecom, Insurance and Consumer Goods segments. Strong buying support from Domestic institutions, accompanied by low selling pressure from its Gulf counterpart, supported the broader index. Trade turnover and volumes rose, with Real Estate and Banking sectors together accounting for about 63% of the total trade volumes. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.5 1.6 3.9 93.4 DSM 20 15.5 1.6 3.8 78.1 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.1 1.7 3.2 1,341.3 UAE (ADX) 11.8 1.4 5.4 41.1 UAE (DFM) 11.8 1.3 3.8 168.8 Kuwait (KSE) 20.0 1.0 4.1 88.8 Oman (MSM) 10.9 1.1 5.0 7.4 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.9 0.4 4.6 2.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Close Price Top Gainers Cinema & Film Distri. 30.2 General Insurance & Re 46.5 United Devpt. Co. 21.7 National Leasing 16.6 Al Khalij Comm Bank 17.2 Top Losers Industries Qatar 119.0 Salam Intl Investment 11.2 Qatar & Oman Invest 10.1 Qatari Investors Group 58.4 Gulf Intl Services 32.0 2.7 3.5 1.0 0.6 0.4 9.8 8.1 4.9 3.4 2.6 9.8 (1.1) 5.0 8.0 1.1 (11.3) 0.1 8.5 21.7 (1.8) 2.0 14.6 0.4 4.2 871.0 14.0 515.4 NA 12.3 10.6 (1.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.4) (0.2) (0.8) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.6) 1.3 1.1 1.0 (0.2) 2.9 13.5 (1.9) (16.3) 68.3 (33.5) 215.7 29.8 97.7 206.5 288.6 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 21.6 10.9 27.6 25.4 35.5 Qatar DSM Index 11,000 40.0 10,688.8 10,500 10,000 20.0 9,500 9,000 9/Oct 0.0 23/Oct 6/Nov 20/Nov Index Volume (mn) 4/Dec 18/Dec Index Value 1/Jan Closing Level 2,977.1 5,942.5 3,364.3 4,526.2 2,324.8 1,242.4 2,573.0 1D Change (%) 0.5 1.2 0.1 1.2 2.5 1.7 0.7 Buy (%) 38.2 20.5 58.7 10.8 30.5 41.3 Sell (%) 51.1 18.0 69.1 11.9 19.1 31.0 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 5 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS  Almost all Federal Reserve policymakers thought the economy could grow more quickly because of fiscal stimulus under the Trump administration and many were eyeing faster interest rate increase, as shown by Fed’s minutes of December-16 meeting. (Source: Reuters)  US auto sales rose 3% YoY in December-16 on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis to 18.4mn vehicles widely beating economists’ expectations of 17.7mn vehicles, mainly due to surge in Pickup trucks and compact SUVs aided by strong consumer discounts. (Source: Reuters)  Eurozone consumer prices grew at a faster than expected pace of 1.1% YoY in December-16 sharply accelerating from a 0.6% YoY rise in November-16. The increase was driven by 2.5% YoY rise in in energy prices followed by food, alcohol and tobacco prices which rose 1.2% YoY for the period. (Source: Reuters)  British consumer borrowing increased by the biggest amount since March-05 in November-16, boosting the unexpectedly robust postBrexit vote economy. Net consumer lending beat expectations to jump by GBP 1.926bn (USD 2.36bn) in November-16, which translates into a 10.8% YoY growth, Bank of England data showed. (Source: Reuters) in Hanover, Germany. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Sharjah Electricity and Water Authority (Sewa) plans to build three 132kv and five 33kv distribution stations in 2017 to meet the growing demand for electricity due to demographic, urban, economic, industrial, social and developmental expansions in the emirate, Chairman of Sewa said. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector growth accelerated in December16 for a second straight month after the government paid some of its debts to the private sector. The seasonally adjusted Emirates NBD Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index which rose to 55.5 in December-16 from 55.0 in November-16. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  The Saudi Arabia Ministry of Finance clarified that it has not yet started applying the selective tax on some goods such as soft drinks, energy drinks, and tobacco and its derivatives and it will be imposed after some more regulatory amendments and ratifications. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  The Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma’aden) announced the appointment of its President and CEO Khalid Al Mudaifer to the Board of the Paris-based International Fertilizer Association (IFA). (Source: Saudi Gazette)  China plans to spend CNY 800.0bn on building railways in 2017, which is unchanged from the budget in 2016. The amount would be spent to increase its network to 150,000 kilometers, according to China Railway Corporation. The country also plans to spend CNY 3.5tn on building railway tracks over 2016-2020. (Source: Reuters)   Growth in China's services sector accelerated to a 17-month high in December-16, as the services PMI rose to 53.4 on a seasonally adjusted basis from 53.1 in November-16, the Markit/Caixin services PMI showed. (Source: Reuters)  State-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said that it was committed to an oil output cut agreed by the OPEC at a meeting in Vienna in November-16. Kuwait would cut its production by 131,000 bpd under that agreement. (Source: KUNA)  Kuwait's Agility, one of the Gulf's largest logistics firms, expects profit and revenue in its logistics business to grow faster in 2017 than it did in 2016 on the back of growth in emerging markets and demand for pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics and consumer goods, a President at the company said. (Source: Arabian Business) GCC NEWS   Growth momentum in the UAE’s private sector non-oil activity continued to strengthen as indicated by Emirates NBD’s latest PMI which rose to a 16-month high of 55.0 in December-16, on the back of new orders, which in turn was supported by growth of new export businesses. (Source: Arabian Business) Passenger traffic at Dubai International Airport, rose 9.4% YoY in November-16 to 6.6mn people, the airport's operator said. Traffic grew 7.0% YoY to 76.0mn people for January-16 to November-16. The growth can be partly attributed to growth in flights to and from India. (Source: Arabian Business)   Dubai World Trade Centre awarded Al Futtaim Carillion the construction contract for phase 1A6 of One Central. Phase 1A6 contains two prime office buildings, with a combined built up area of 182,500 sq.m. The contract is worth AED 725mn and is scheduled for completion at the end of 2018. (Source: Arabian Business) Dubai Islamic Bank, the largest Islamic bank in the UAE, sold its stake in Jordan Dubai Islamic Bank. DIB held 20.8% in Jordan Dubai Islamic Bank through a 40% shareholding in MESC Investments. (Source: Arabian Business)    Ardian, a Paris-based alternative-investment firm, is reportedly in talks to take a stake in Mubadala Development Company’s (the Abu Dhabibased sovereign fund) USD 2bn private equity portfolio, Mubadala spokesman said. (Source: Arabian Business) Smartworld, a systems integrator and an ICT services provider in the UAE, posted a 15% YoY growth in revenues during 2016. The robust performance was marked by a record number of new projects implemented during the year. (Source: Trade Arabia) UAE-based Altaaqa Global Caterpillar Rental Power, a provider of temporary power solutions, achieved ISO 50001:2011 certification from TÜV Nord, the ISO-accredited certification body headquartered Bahrain-based Gulf International Bank (GIB) has chosen six banks to arrange an upcoming USD -denominated bond sale, sources familiar with the situation said. The bond will be a benchmark transaction, which traditionally means upwards of USD 500mn, and could be launched as early as the end of January-17. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s ongoing public investments could overheat the economy in near term and the prospects of further rise in US interest rates may complicate efforts to bolster real economic growth, which is expected to be 3.4% in 2017, according to the IMF. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar should consider revenue-raising reforms, including making GCC companies liable to corporate tax, the IMF said in its annual Article IV report for the country. (Source: Tax News)  Italy's Intesa Sanpaolo said it would provide a loan for up to EUR 5.2bn to help commodities trader Glencore and Qatar's sovereign wealth fund buy a 19.5% stake in Russian oil company Rosneft. The consortium, of which Qatar Investment Authority and Glencore each own 50%, is buying the stake from the Russian state for EUR 10.2bn. (Source: Gulf Times)  Investment Holding Group (IHG), the first Qatari family business that will launch an IPO next week, is planning expansion, especially in infrastructure as it is confident on the economic prospects of Qatar, IHG chief executive said. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Fuel Company’s (Woqod) total number of service stations reached 56 at the end of 2016 after it launched 19 new stations (including mobile petrol stations) across Qatar during the last year. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIB) welcomed the Moroccan Credit Institutions Committee’s decision to let five Islamic banks, including QIIB, to apply for licenses to set up a base in the country. QIIB CEO said that the bank would get a license to establish a new Islamic bank in Morocco by February-17. (Source: Qatar Tribune) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 5 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0519 USD/QAR 3.6411 117.2500 EUR/QAR 3.8301 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2353 JPY/QAR 0.0311 USD/CHF 1.0209 GBP/QAR 4.4979 USD/CAD 1.3302 CHF/QAR 3.5666 AUD/USD 0.7283 CAD/QAR 2.7373 NZD/USD 0.6970 AUD/QAR 2.6518 USD/INR 67.5450 INR/QAR 0.0539 USD/TRY 3.5721 TRY/QAR 1.0193 USD/ZAR 13.6142 ZAR/QAR 0.2674 USD/BRL 3.2213 BRL/QAR 1.1303 FX Commentary USD fell against the basket of major currencies, as investors consolidated their positions, following dollar's surge to its highest levels since late 2002, on Tuesday. Increased inflationary pressure, pointed out by Fed minutes and no clear course on interest rate hikes, left investors cautious, which further weighed on the greenback. CAD strengthened to a 3-week high against its US counterpart mainly due to weakness in the latter and higher oil prices. GBP rose after the release of higher than expected consumer borrowing data, which pointed towards robustness in British economy post-Brexit vote. EUR got boost from higher than expected rise in consumer prices for December and survey showing that business growth reached its highest level in more than 5-years. CNY gained as China stepped into both its onshore and offshore markets to shore up the faltering yuan. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.70 0.72 0.77 1.00 1.69 (0.41) (0.37) (0.37) (0.32) (0.08) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 1.30 1.40 1.54 1.86 2.52 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.24 1.80 2.03 2.42 2.0% EIBOR 0.44 0.62 0.97 1.39 2.05 BMIBOR 0.63 0.73 1.20 1.73 2.18 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.13 1.44 2.06 0.0% 2.47% 2.96% 2.96% 2.01% 2.37% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.60% 0.62% 0.53% 1.60% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 3.03% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 26.8 6.9 Turkey 271.1 27.2 UK 27.5 (13.0) Brazil 266.0 (54.4) Germany 21.8 2.6 Egypt 445.2 (55.5) France 36.6 (2.3) Abu Dhabi 153.0 6.9 2.0% 2.53% 1.46% 2.10% 1.92% 1.83% 1.60% 1.0% 2.26% 2.08% 2.50% Italy 1.09% Greece 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 1,027.0 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 59.3 (28.3) Bahrain 269.5 (127.0) 69.6 Dubai 141.7 (42.0) Russia 175.7 (63.3) Qatar 76.8 (31.2) Japan 30.0 (9.5) Saudi Arabia 110.7 (67.7) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 08:00 Japan Vehicle Sales YoY Dec - 13.90% 11:30 Germany Markit Germany Construction PMI Dec - 53.9 12:10 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Dec - 48.6 12:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Dec 54.7 55.2 12:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI Dec 55 55.2 13:00 Eurozone PPI MoM Nov 0.30% 0.80% 16:15 US ADP Employment Change Dec 175k 216k 16:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Dec-31st 16:30 US Continuing Claims Dec-24th 16:30 Canada Industrial Product Price MoM Nov 0.50% 0.70% 16:30 Canada Raw Materials Price Index MoM Nov (1.80%) 3.30% 17:45 US Markit US Services PMI Dec F 53.4 53.4 17:45 US Markit US Composite PMI 53.7 17:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 18:00 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite 02:50 Japan Foreign Buying Japan Stocks 03:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings YoY 260k 265k 2045k 2102k Dec F - Jan-01st - 46 Dec 56.8 57.2 Dec-30th - - Nov 0.20% 0.10% Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 5 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As of 29th December 2016) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 9.9 0.0 8.7 1.7 5.9 4.7 3.2 0.0 4.1 6.4 1.8 5.9 3.3 8.0 6.3 5.1 5.5 5.2 0.0 9.1 4.0 4.8 5.7 7.0 3.2 4.3 4.5 3.4 2.1 6.7 3.9 4.2 4.8 5.6 2.3 2.9 7.8 2.7 6.7 3.3 1.9 7.5 4.5 3.0 2.3 2.8 2.2 5.4 5.2 4.9 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.7 2.3 0.9 2.5 1.0 2.3 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.7 2.1 1.0 1.7 1.8 1.4 2.6 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.8 4.2 0.8 1.7 1.1 1.5 2.1 1.4 3.2 2.9 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.8 2.5 0.7 2.3 1.6 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.2 1.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.5 15.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.1 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.4 13.2 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.3 12.0 11.1 27.8 11.5 20.2 7.2 21.7 13.2 11.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.8 14.2 6.2 11.4 13.5 34.3 21.1 19.2 15.3 25.4 10.8 11.1 18.6 18.0 9.0 18.8 4.2 12.6 11.8 13.1 23.1 16.8 12.9 18.4 14.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.4 16.3 13.1 12.4 13.1 14.1 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 3.1 10.9 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 35.1 55.3 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 39.0 30.2 21.3 34.4 61.1 16.8 37.4 15.4 10.1 103.1 62.8 161.1 10.1 62.5 78.9 176.0 27.5 145.2 10.1 11.1 67.0 83.0 13.6 31.0 116.5 15.7 222.0 58.4 44.8 85.7 21.0 17.8 82.9 47.0 51.0 33.1 15.1 14.4 20.0 101.7 9.2 55.5 23.0 96.9 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4