GCC Daily Market Update - 31 December

Transcription

1. December 31 , 2020 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) MSCI GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 3,732.0 30,409.6 12,845.4 6,555.8 13,718.8 5,599.4 1,479.9 27,444.2 27,147.1 3,414.5 47,746.2 5.0 73.9 1.9 (46.8) (42.6) (12.4) 20.2 (124.0) 578.6 35.4 133.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 (0.7) (0.3) (0.2) 1.4 (0.5) 2.2 1.0 0.3 3.0 2.6 4.7 4.6 3.2 1.5 15.3 3.8 3.1 0.7 8.1 15.5 6.6 47.1 (13.1) 3.5 (6.3) 29.3 16.0 (3.7) 11.9 15.7 10,534.7 8,760.1 5,088.1 2,518.0 5,549.9 3,653.4 1,476.2 553.8 5,440.9 34.6 13.3 (11.0) (7.0) (28.6) 11.3 (21.2) 0.8 20.7 0.3 0.2 (0.2) (0.3) (0.5) 0.3 (1.4) 0.1 0.4 2.7 0.1 2.5 4.1 1.7 0.3 (0.1) 1.0 4.2 1.0 4.4 0.2 (8.9) (11.7) (8.2) (8.3) (2.8) 26.6 51.3 48.4 2.4 1,893.4 354.9 0.3 0.4 (0.0) 13.7 (0.4) 0.5 0.8 (1.8) 0.7 (0.1) 8.2 6.5 (15.2) 6.6 3.9 (22.0) (20.9) 11.6 24.3 27.1 Global The US equity markets ended higher yesterday, driven by recently implemented COVID-19 relief package and investor optimism around global economic recovery post the ongoing rollout of the vaccines. The S&P 500 ended 0.1% higher, amid gains in Energy and Material stocks. The European markets ended lower yesterday, as investors looked to book profits. However, losses were capped as the markets were supported by the approval of the COVID-19 vaccine in Britain and developments in the Brexit trade deal. The Stoxx Europe 600 decreased by 0.3% to end at 400.3. Industrial stocks were the notable sector losers. In Asia, the Nikkei index ended lower yesterday, as investors looked to lock in profits after a recent rally, pulling it back from over a 30 year high. GCC Most GCC markets ended on a negative note yesterday. The Saudi Arabian index increased by 0.2%, amid gains in Software & Services and Insurance stocks. Dubai’s index decreased by 0.3%, with losses in Industrial and Consumer Staples & Discretionary Stocks. Abu Dhabi index decreased by 0.2%, as losses in Telecommunication and Services stocks weighed on the index. The Kuwaiti Index decreased by 0.5%, due to losses in Utilities and Banking stocks. The Bahraini index decreased by 1.4%, as losses in Banking and Industrial stocks weighed on the index. Qatar The Qatari index increased by 0.3% yesterday. Buying support on part of domestic retail and foreign institutional investors lifted the index. Trade turnover and volumes decreased with Banking & Financial Services, Industrial and Consumer Goods & Service sectors together accounting for 73.2% of the total traded volumes. Out of 47 listed stocks, 45 exchanged hands, 28 advanced, 11 declined and 6 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 18.6 1.5 3.6 68.4 11,000 DSM 20 17.9 1.5 3.7 50.8 10,600 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 35.2 2.1 2.4 2,056.8 10,200 UAE (ADX) 21.4 1.4 4.8 106.1 9,800 UAE (DFM) 12.1 0.9 3.9 37.8 Kuwait (KSE) 35.5 1.4 3.5 94.4 Oman (MSM) 11.0 0.7 6.9 3.6 GCC Fundamentals Bahrain (BAX) 14.3 1.0 Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) 4.6 1.1 Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Gas Transport Qatar & Oman Invest Qatar Fuel Widam Food Co Gulf International Top Losers Qatar General Al Ahli Bank Ooredoo Zad Holding Co Qatar German Co Close Price 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM 3.2 0.9 18.9 6.4 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 35.7 33.8 (17.5) (5.6) (0.8) 35.7 2,580.9 15.3 33.8 1,222.0 22.4 (17.5) 443.0 24.2 (5.6) 830.2 13.4 (0.8) 3,990.5 NA 2.5 3.4 7.6 14.9 2.2 (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.0) (7.1) (5.6) (2.7) (0.7) (0.6) (0.4) 1.0 6.7 7.8 284.9 (0.4) 15.4 NA 1.0 1,600.3 13.0 6.7 2,335.5 12.7 7.8 18.0 17.5 284.9 1,294.1 NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 9,400 4-Oct 10,534.7 400.0 200.0 0.0 18-Oct 1-Nov 15-Nov Index Volume (mn) 29-Nov 13-Dec 27-Dec Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 4,290.3 8,199.8 3,126.2 2,398.8 1,942.1 1,014.1 3,326.5 1D Change (%) 0.4 0.6 0.4 (0.7) 0.2 (2.1) 0.9 Buy (%) 36.1 24.1 60.2 11.5 28.3 39.8 Sell (%) 28.8 35.1 63.9 12.2 23.9 36.1 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. December 31 , 2020 GLOBAL NEWS  The Office of the US Trade Representative has announced to raise tariffs on some products from EU, including aircraft components and wines from France and Germany. (Source: Reuters)  As per sources, the EU and China have agreed upon an investment deal that will give European companies larger access to Chinese markets and improve the relations between both the nations. (Source: Reuters)  The President of Deutsche Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann has warned the Eurozone governments, which have been forced to raise the public debts in order to support the economy during the coronavirus pandemic to not expect ECB to maintain low interest rates forever.  Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Communications and Information Technology has said that the cabinet has approved the nation to launch a digital economy policy, which will enable diversification and raise competition. (Source: Saudi Gazzette)  The Board of Saudi Arabia-based Arabian Centers Company has recommended the distribution of SAR 0.5 (USD 0.1) or 5.0% cash dividends worth SAR 237.5mn (USD 63.2mn) to the shareholders for H1-20. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Automotive Services Company has revised facility worth SAR 154.0mn (USD 41.1mn) from the existing Sharia-compliant facility agreement valuing SAR 536.3mn (USD 143.0mn) with Riyad Bank. The modification was done to improve the formers cash flow conditions and liquidity performance. (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Arabia-based Middle East Healthcare Company has announced to consider awarding SAR 264.7mn (USD 65.8mn) worth of contract to India-based Megamind IT Solutions Company on 3rd January-21. The project aims to digitally transform the formers’ hospitals in order to provide better healthcare services. (Source: Argaam)  The total number of graduates since the launch of the Nusaned initiative by Saudi Arabia-based SABIC in 2018 has reached 106 investors who are qualified to launch projects that will create 6,610 jobs and contribute more than SAR 8.8bn (USD 2.4bn) to the economy. (Source: Yahoo Finance)  The UK lawmakers have approved the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit trade deal with the EU, where both nation’s look forward to begin new relations and secure USD 1.0tn of annual trade. (Source: Channel News Asia)   The Central Bank of China has announced to put bank payment institutions, internet micro-lenders and consumer finance companies under the scope of anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism financing supervision. (Source: Money US News) According to Anadolu Agency, the head of the Turkey-UK Business Council of the Foreign Economic Relations Board, Osman Okyay has told that free trade agreement signed by Turkey and the UK would make the bilateral trade target of USD 20.0bn between the two nations, achievable. (Source: Hurriyet Daily) GCC NEWS   According to Bloomberg, total value of Sukuk issuances in the GCC region reached USD 142.0bn in YTD November-20. The GCC governments have issued USD 47.5bn bonds and USD 28.7bn sukuk. GCC companies issued USD 46.2bn and USD 19.9bn bonds and sukuk, respectively. (Source: Kuwait 24 Hours) According to Kuwait-based Kamco Invest, GCC governments are expected to see USD 157.1bn worth of fixed income maturities from 2021-25, while corporate maturities may reach USD 164.3bn. Loan maturities in the GCC region are expected at USD 299.3bn. (Source: (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia-based ACWA Power has announced to sign USD 300.0mn agreements for the construction of a 240-megawatt wind farm located in the Absheron and Khizi regions of Azerbaijan. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The Central Bank of Bahrain has announced that all banks and financing companies can extend repayment of loan installments for 6 months from 1st January-21. The motive is to ease the economic pressure created by the COVID-19 pandemic. (Source: Gulf News)  According to the Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency, the US State Department has approved the potential sale of Apache helicopters and spare parts to Kuwait for the Patriot missile system in two different deals which is estimated to be valuing around USD 4.0bn and USD 200.0mn, respectively. (Source: Reuters)  According to Arab Times, the Ministry of Public Works has announced that the work on Kuwait International Airport project worth USD 4.3bn has been 40.0% complete. The project is spread over an area of 1.3mn square meters. (Source: Trade Arabia) Mubasher)   The Director-General of Dubai Municipality has announced that the municipality is preparing to launch an initiative to exempt companies from paying double fines for their violations. The exemption will be for those who will pay basic fines determined for violations before midFebruary-21. (Source: Emirates News Agency) As per official data, banks operating in Saudi Arabia have raised their investments in government-issued bonds by 12.0% YoY and 13.2% MoM to SAR 430.0bn (USD 114.7bn) from January-20 to November20. (Source: Mubasher)  The Saudi Ministry of Tourism has announced that Saudi Arabia-based financing guarantee program, Kafalah, has supported 61 tourism projects worth SAR 176.0mn (USD 46.9mn). These projects have offered 2,687 job opportunities. (Source: Mubasher)  According to Saudi Central Bank consumer spending in Saudi Arabia has declined by 10.6% YoY to SAR 893.5bn (USD 238.3bn) during January-20 to November-20. The cash withdrawals from ATMs declined by 22.5% YoY to SAR 573.8bn (USD 153.0bn). (Source: Mubasher)  According to Saudi Central Bank, point of sale (POS) deals rose by 24.1% YoY to SAR 348.9bn (USD 93.0bn) from 1st January-20 to 26th December-20. Total transactions through POS increased by 75.3% YoY to 2.8bn deals. The food and beverage sector dominated the highest value on POS purchases with SAR 61.3bn (USD 16.3bn). (Source: KSA QATAR NEWS  The Qatari Ambassador to Turkey, Salem bin Mubarak Al Shafi has talked about his optimistic views over Qatar investing in real estate & construction, tourism & textiles, food & agriculture, livestock and other industry of Turkey in the coming years. (Source: Hurriyet Daily)  The Board of Qatar-based Alijarah Holding Company have announced a unanimous decision to suspend the taxi business of the company from 31st December-20. The decision was taken due to the huge losses which the company suffered during the COVID-19 pandemic and to stop any further losses. (Source: The Group)  The Chairman of Qatar-based Katara Hospitality has announced the company’s plan to establish 60 hotels in the nation by 2030. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar-based QLM Life & Medical Insurance has announced to be legally incorporated as a public shareholding firm and its shares will be listed from 6th January-21 on the Qatar Stock Exchange. (Source: MENA FN) Watan) 2
3. December 31 , 2020 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2279 USD/QAR 3.6415 103.5800 EUR/QAR 4.4714 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3533 JPY/QAR 0.0352 USD/CHF 0.8842 GBP/QAR 4.9280 USD/CAD 1.2818 CHF/QAR 4.1184 AUD/USD 0.7606 CAD/QAR 2.8409 NZD/USD 0.7150 AUD/QAR 2.7697 USD/INR 72.9263 INR/QAR 0.0499 USD/TRY 7.3869 TRY/QAR 0.4930 USD/ZAR 14.7181 ZAR/QAR 0.2474 USD/BRL 5.2046 BRL/QAR 0.6997 FX Commentary The USD decreased against the basket of major currencies yesterday, with the dollar index settling lower by 0.4% to end at 89.7. The dollar weakened, due to optimism around the US fiscal stimulus and lower trading volumes near the year end. The EUR increased against the USD, as risk appetite increased driven by investor optimism toward the US fiscal stimulus and COVID-19 vaccine rollout. The GBP increased against the USD, amid positive developments in the Brexit trade deal. However, gains were capped as the trade deal still does not include the services sector. The CAD increased against the USD, as oil prices rose due to a decrease in crude oil inventories in the US. The AUD increased against the USD, as investors remained positive of improved global economic performance next year post the vaccine rollout. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.08 0.10 0.15 0.24 0.34 (0.59) (0.58) (0.57) (0.54) (0.50) QAIBOR 0.69 0.73 0.80 0.95 1.33 2.0% SAIBOR 0.55 0.60 0.66 0.82 0.94 1.0% EIBOR 0.14 0.18 0.25 0.39 0.65 BMIBOR 0.65 0.85 1.77 1.93 2.22 KIBOR 0.69 0.94 1.19 1.44 1.94 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Source: Bloomberg 1.0% 0.21% 1.85% 1.76% 1.70% 0.95% 0.68% 0.45% 2.03% 1.43% 0.0% 2 Yrs 0.43% 1.65% 1.26% 0.90% 1.68% 0.94% 0.65% 0.38% 0.13% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Years CDS 3.0% 1.68% 2.81% 3.0% 5 Yrs Qatar 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 2.0% Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 5 Yrs Current 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 16.6 (6.2) Turkey 315.7 (180.5) UK 19.9 (10.6) Brazil 147.2 (113.9) Germany 12.3 (5.8) Egypt 358.5 (148.9) France 17.9 (7.3) Abu Dhabi 40.3 (36.0) Italy 99.4 (71.2) Bahrain 261.5 (98.9) Greece 103.6 (47.4) Dubai 119.7 (88.6) Russia 90.0 (23.4) Qatar 40.9 (35.3) Japan 18.3 (2.8) Saudi Arabia 68.4 (41.7) Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 11:30 Russia 11:30 Russia Markit Russia PMI Services Dec 48.5 48.2 Markit Russia PMI Composite Dec -- 18:30 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve 47.8 Dec-25th -- 593.6b 18:30 Russia Current Account Balance 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 3Q F -- 2,500m Dec-26th 835k 19:00 US Continuing Claims Dec-19th 803k 5,390k 5,337k 20:15 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Dec-27th -- 47 20:30 Russia CPI MoM Dec P 0.70% 0.70% 20:30 Russia CPI YoY Dec P 4.80% 4.40% NA Italy Bank of Italy to Release 3Q Credit Conditions and Risk Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 9.3 6.0 (27.1) 3.0 (13.6) (45.7) Sharjah Insurance Company Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. December 31 , 2020 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Baladna Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed QAMCO Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 4.2 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 4.9 4.0 0.0 3.0 4.6 3.3 2.2 3.5 1.2 6.6 3.2 4.1 2.5 4.2 0.0 0.0 4.7 5.7 4.0 4.7 0.0 0.0 3.6 3.4 0.1 4.3 3.0 4.7 7.1 3.6 2.6 5.7 6.2 0.0 5.5 4.9 5.8 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.4 3.3 3.7 3.4 3.9 3.1 4.3 3.5 3.3 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 1.0 2.5 0.8 2.1 1.1 2.5 0.9 2.5 2.3 0.2 1.8 0.9 1.3 1.6 0.7 2.5 2.8 1.8 2.3 8.6 0.5 2.8 2.4 1.9 0.1 0.9 0.6 2.0 1.7 1.0 2.1 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.4 2.7 0.8 0.7 1.5 1.2 0.5 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.8 0.6 1.1 1.1 P/E Ratio (x) 13.0 10.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.4 53.4 9.6 15.5 32.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 13.3 14.9 13.2 22.5 13.4 30.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 29.7 20.4 54.7 24.3 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 14.6 17.5 29.5 34.6 54.9 10.6 44.6 25.2 (H) (‫)م‬ 13.3 28.5 19.1 22.2 29.2 65.6 13.0 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 64.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.4 (H) (‫)م‬ 47.9 29.5 41.0 12.6 34.9 14.3 12.5 15.3 15.8 15.1 18.2 EPS (QR) 0.3 0.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 0.6 1.4 0.0 0.6 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 BV/Share (QR) 2.5 4.4 0.7 3.1 2.5 1.7 1.9 1.4 0.7 7.5 40.5 10.2 1.0 6.4 1.2 4.5 3.5 7.4 2.2 8.3 0.3 1.4 2.3 6.2 3.3 12.4 1.9 1.0 5.4 1.2 1.0 8.5 2.2 3.3 4.5 4.2 2.1 2.1 2.3 5.7 2.5 2.9 5.1 1.2 1.1 3.1 1.8 7.2 1.0 3.7 3.2 1.8 12.3 3.5 4.0 Stock Price (QR) 3.4 4.4 1.8 2.4 5.1 1.8 4.6 1.2 1.7 17.3 9.2 18.1 0.9 1.8 3.0 8.9 20.6 4.0 18.9 2.2 0.7 6.4 14.9 0.9 1.7 0.6 11.0 2.1 1.0 18.1 1.8 3.2 4.2 1.9 1.4 2.4 2.5 6.9 3.4 1.8 1.2 1.7 7.6 1.3 5.1 3.2 7.1 - Company ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫قامكو‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above-mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4