GCC Daily Market Update - 3 January

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 3 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,695.8 24,824.0 6,511.3 7,648.1 12,871.4 5,288.6 117,524.2 22,764.9 30,515.3 3,348.3 33,812.3 22.2 104.8 114.9 (39.7) (46.3) (24.0) 2,191.2 NA 596.2 41.2 (0.5) 0.8 0.4 1.8 (0.5) (0.4) (0.5) 1.9 NA 2.0 1.2 0.0 0.8 0.4 1.8 (0.5) (0.4) (0.5) 1.9 NA 2.0 1.2 (0.7) 0.8 0.4 1.8 (0.5) (0.4) (0.5) 1.9 NA 2.0 1.2 (0.7) 8,620.3 7,171.7 4,442.0 3,411.2 6,312.5 5,093.7 1,322.0 1,584.4 3,671.9 96.9 (22.4) 43.6 41.1 (95.5) 11.5 (9.7) (2.6) 33.5 1.1 (0.3) 1.0 1.2 (1.5) 0.2 (0.7) (0.2) 0.9 1.1 (0.8) 1.0 1.2 (1.5) (0.1) (0.7) 0.7 0.9 1.1 (0.8) 1.0 1.2 (1.5) (0.1) (0.7) 0.7 0.9 66.6 60.4 3.1 1,316.1 327.8 (0.3) (0.1) 0.1 6.8 (2.3) (0.5) (0.1) 3.5 0.5 (0.7) (0.6) (0.1) 2.9 0.5 (1.1) (0.6) (0.1) 2.9 0.5 (1.1) Source: Bloomberg Global US equity markets ended higher on the first trading day of 2018. The S&P 500 inched 0.8% higher, buoyed by more than 1% gains in Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Materials and Technology shares. Nasdaq outperformed its peer indices, gaining 1.8%, as rally in Chipmakers shares supported the index. The Stoxx Europe 600 was dragged 0.2% lower, weighed by strength in EUR. The index was also weighed by weakness in Mining and Automobiles shares. The UK benchmark ended 0.5% lower, mostly due to strength in GBP, hurting the export-oriented stocks. In Asia, the Hang Seng index advanced 2.0%, led by gains in index heavy-weight Tencent Holdings. The Chinese benchmark gained, following the release of better than expected Chinese manufacturing activity data. Japanese benchmark was closed due to holidays. GCC GCC equity markets were mixed during yesterday’s trading session. The Saudi Arabian benchmark declined 0.3%, continuing its downward trajectory, on back of earlier-than-expected hike in domestic gasoline prices by the Saudi government. Medical insurer Bupa Arabia gained 1.2% after signing a services deal with Saudi Aramco. The Dubai benchmark rose 1.2%, backed by rally in Real Estate firms Emaar Properties and Emaar Development. Gulf Navigation fell 3.9%, after deciding to raise capital by issuing new shares. The Abu Dhabi index gained 1.0% on back of strength in Banking shares. Qatar The QE index rose 1.1% during the first trading session of 2018, as foreign institutional investors and foreign individuals turned bullish. The index was also supported by across the board buying in Real Estate and Consumer Goods sectors. Trade turnover expanded amidst lower volumes yesterday, with Banking, Industrials and Real Estate sectors together accounting for more than 79% of the total volume. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 41 exchanged hands, 30 advanced and 11 declined. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.9 1.3 4.3 63.0 DSM 20 13.9 1.3 4.6 49.0 8,500 10.0 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.8 1.6 3.4 1,173.4 8,000 5.0 UAE (ADX) 15.8 1.3 4.5 13.6 UAE (DFM)* 21.3 1.2 4.2 43.7 Kuwait (KSE) 15.2 1.0 5.5 18.5 Oman (MSM) 12.3 1.0 5.1 2.2 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.8 0.8 5.9 1.8 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg, * As on 28th December 2017 Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Medicare Group Doha Insurance Co Al Ahli Bank Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Gulf Warehousing Co Top Losers Qatar Industrial Manu Mannai Corporation Islamic Holding Group Mazaya Qatar Real Est. Commercial Bank Close Price 76.8 15.0 41.5 14.0 46.0 7.0 1.0 2.5 0.8 2.0 10.0 7.1 6.4 5.7 4.6 10.0 7.1 6.4 5.7 4.6 20.0 (17.8) 11.7 (33.6) (19.7) 128.0 1.0 1.6 299.6 108.5 32.7 9.8 12.8 31.8 12.7 42.6 58.9 37.2 9.0 28.8 (1.1) (0.6) (0.3) (0.1) (0.1) (2.6) (0.9) (0.8) (0.6) (0.4) (2.6) (0.9) (0.8) (0.6) (0.4) (5.8) (25.7) (39.5) (34.9) (8.2) 5.3 5.2 153.5 715.1 25.8 10.4 5.7 68.6 57.8 60.1 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 9,000 7,500 8/Oct 15.0 8,620.3 0.0 22/Oct 5/Nov 19/Nov Index Volume (mn) 3/Dec 17/Dec 31/Dec Index Value Closing Level 2,707.2 5,030.0 2,642.4 3,494.1 1,951.7 1,111.2 1,782.8 1D Change (%) 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.4 1.9 1.1 0.8 Buy (%) 42.3 18.2 60.5 21.5 18.0 39.5 Sell (%) 46.4 27.0 73.4 17.6 9.0 26.6 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 3 , 2018 followed with a review by RAK Gas of onshore and offshore subsurface potential. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS  Eighteen of the US states, including the District of Columbia, are planning to boost the statutory minimum wage, effective from January-18, giving workers a total wage hike of more than USD 5.0bn by 2019, according to Economic Policy Institute report. (Source: CNBC)  Benoit Coeure, one of the key policy makers in European Central Bank, stated that there are probability that the stimulus programme worth EUR 2.6tn would not be extended again after it expires in September18. (Source: Reuters)    China’s Central Bank has injected net CNY 212.4bn (USD 32.7bn) into the nation’s financial system through short and medium term liquidity tools in December-17, so as to reduce financial risk amid sustained restriction on riskier lending. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia is expecting a total revenue of worth SAR 35.0bn (USD 9.3bn) from VAT in the year 2018, the project manager of VAT at General Authority of Zakat and Tax stated. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia is expected to keep the Arab light crude oil prices stable, while expecting a decrease in the prices for medium and heavy grades in February-18. (Source: Gulf Base)  Saudi Arabia is seeking for collaboration opportunities with European Union on HVAC (heating, ventilation and air-conditioning) standards, certification and labelling at an upcoming event in Jeddah. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Turkey’s total exports increased by 10.2% YoY to USD 157.1bn, while total imports increased by 17.9% YoY to USD 234.2bn in 2017. Total foreign trade volume increased by 14.7% YoY to USD 391.3bn during the same period. (Source: AA) Saudi Arabia has signed a 3-year renewal agreement with Schneider Electric to continue to provide reliable and economical electricity in Saudi Arabia. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Total number of road motor vehicles registration in Turkey rose to 22.1mn in November-17. Out of the total, cars accounted for 54.1%, followed by small trucks (16.4%), motorcycles (14%), tractors (8.3%), trucks (3.8%), minibuses (2.2%), buses (1.0%) and special purpose vehicles (0.2%). (Source: Turkstat) Saudi Arabia based Mabani Steel, a subsidiary of Al Rajhi Holding has been awarded a contract to provide steel structure solutions for the Avenue Mall mega project. As per the contract, the company will design, supply and install steel structure for the new mall. (Source: Trade  Saudi Arabia based builder, Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development Company, is planning to sell 30.0% of its stake in the subsidiary, Dar Al Arkan Properties Company, through IPO. The company has appointed Samba Capital & Investment Management Company as a financial advisor for the IPO. (Source: Arabian Business)  Oman has approved the state budget for 2018, which expects the total public expenditure to increase by 6.8% YoY to OMR 12.5bn (USD 32.5bn) and expects total revenue to increase by 3.0% YoY to OMR 9.5bn. The budget estimated a deficit of QAR 3.0bn or 10.0% of the GDP in 2018. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman based Asyad’s investment subsidiary, Marafi, has taken over the responsibility for the management and operation of Sultan Qaboos Port in Muscat. The company would be managing the marine operations and vessel handling as per the license granted to them by the Ministry of Transport and Communications. (Source: Trade Arabia) Arabia) GCC NEWS  Italy based construction and civil engineering company, Salini Impregilo has been awarded 2 big contracts worth USD 300.0mn in the GCC region. These includes construction of water desalination plant worth USD 100.0mn through its subsidiary Fisia Italimpianti in Oman and the other project is for designing and building a 5 km long transit connection in Abu Dhabi. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE’s commercial buildings are expected to drive the growth in the nation’s construction sector due to economic diversification and focus of various emirates on developing higher-value service industries, according to BMI Research report. (Source: Gulf Base)  UAE’s real wages are expected to decrease 0.5% YoY driven by increase in inflation by 4.6% and pay increase by 4.1% YoY in 2018, according to the global consulting firm Hay Group. (Source: Arabian QATAR NEWS  Business)   Dubai based Gulf Navigation Holding is planning to increase its share capital by AED 1.0bn (USD 272.0mn) by issuing new shares in Q1-18. The company is expected to issue 1.0bn at a par value of AED 1.0 per share. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai based Jebel Ali Free Zone has allowed Maysun Solar, the photovoltaic panel producer, to set up a manufacturing facility in the zone. The company will manufacture 5,000 solar panels a month with a capacity to generate 40MW of electricity at its plant. (Source: Trade Times)  Dubai based Al-Futtaim has signed a deal with Marks & Spencer (M&S) to become the new sole franchisee for M&S in Hong Kong and Macau.  Qatar is expected to have 293,000 residential units, 51.0mn sq ft of office supply and around 31,000 hotel rooms and apartments by the end of this year, if all the projects are delivered on time, according to ValuStrat report. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar is planning to set up a central Shariah committee for Islamic banks to ensure that the country’s financial regulations are benchmarked to international standards, according to Qatar Central Bank’s Governor. (Source: Gulf Times)  Vodafone Qatar has announced that the company’s financial year end is been changed to 31st December from 31st March to ensure closer alignment of the company's results announcements and other reporting requirements with other listed companies in Qatar. (Source: (Source: Arabian Business)   Dubai based financial consultant, Amlak Finance, has completed its residential development project worth AED 138.0mn (USD 38.0mn) in Mirdiff area of Dubai. The projects includes a total build up area of 180,085 sq.ft spread over 18 land plots. (Source: Trade Arabia) Abu Dhabi based Emirates Healthcare Group, a subsidiary of investment group, KBBO, has signed a strategic partnership agreement with Egypt based Alameda Healthcare Group. (Source: Arabian business)  RAK Gas has announced its first round of its oil and gas licensing on 1st January-18 in London and Ras Al Khaimah. This round would be His Highness issued Law No 1 of 2018, which grants clients the right to lodge a complaint against their lawyer. The law requires non-Qatari lawyers working in Qatari law firms to obtain a licence from the Lawyers Acceptance Committee to appear before the courts. (Source: Qatar Tribune) Arabia)  His Highness the Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani has issued a Decree No 1 of 2018 approving an MoU in the field organising exhibitions between the governments of Qatar and Turkey. He also issued Decree No 2 of 2018 approving a MoU to co-operate in the health sector between the governments of Qatar and India. (Source: Gulf Qatar Tribune) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 3 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2089 USD/QAR 3.6415 112.2900 EUR/QAR 4.4022 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3620 JPY/QAR 0.0324 USD/CHF 0.9717 GBP/QAR 4.9597 USD/CAD 1.2512 CHF/QAR 3.7476 AUD/USD 0.7830 CAD/QAR 2.9104 NZD/USD 0.7105 AUD/QAR 2.8513 USD/INR 62.9825 INR/QAR 0.0578 USD/TRY 3.7668 TRY/QAR 0.9667 USD/ZAR 12.4589 ZAR/QAR 0.2923 USD/BRL 3.2616 BRL/QAR 1.1165 FX Commentary The USD started the New Year on a negative note, as the dollar index settled 0.3% lower at 91.836. The weakness in the USD came amid speculations that the central bank might be watchful with its future rate hikes, amidst persistently low inflation environment. However, the losses were capped, after the US manufacturing activity data came in better than expectations. The EUR inched higher against the USD, after one of the European Central Bank’s key policymaker indicated that the central bank’s stimulus package would not be extended when it ends during September18. The GBP strengthened against the USD, amid broad based weakness in the greenback. The CAD strengthened against the USD, as oil prices remained near two and half year high level, thereby, supporting the currency. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.43 1.48 1.56 1.69 2.11 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) 2.03 2.16 2.31 2.63 3.01 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.61 1.69 1.90 2.29 2.0% EIBOR 1.21 1.47 1.67 1.85 2.61 BMIBOR 1.30 1.55 2.13 2.35 2.93 NA NA 1.69 1.88 2.38 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.31% 1.92% 3.05% 3.32% 3.59% 2.25% 2.38% 2.46% 2.81% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 4.39% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 27.3 1.0 Turkey 163.2 (35.1) UK 20.5 (1.5) Brazil 158.0 (85.8) Germany 11.1 (5.8) Egypt 320.8 (86.6) France 18.5 (4.8) Abu Dhabi Italy 123.3 (24.1) Greece 404.8 Russia 118.5 Japan 27.2 0.2 2.10% 2.45% 2.35% 2.28% 2.0% 1.0% 2.31% 2.14% 1.97% 2.60% 2.54% 1.47% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 65.6 2.7 Bahrain 282.2 23.1 (240.3) Dubai 129.5 (6.8) (52.8) Qatar 105.3 (12.5) 95.9 (20.2) Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 11:55 Germany Unemployment Change (000's) Dec (13k) (18k) 11:55 Germany Unemployment Claims Rate SA Dec 5.50% 5.60% 12:00 Germany CPI Brandenburg MoM Dec - 0.40% 12:00 Germany CPI Brandenburg YoY Dec - 1.60% 12:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Dec 53 53.1 15:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Dec-29th - (4.90%) 18:00 US Construction Spending MoM Nov 0.50% 1.40% 18:00 US ISM Manufacturing Dec 58.2 58.2 18:00 US ISM Prices Paid Dec 64.5 65.5 18:00 US ISM New Orders Dec - 64 18:00 US ISM Employment Dec - 59.7 22:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes Dec-13th - - 03:30 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Dec F - 54.2 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 3 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 28th December 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 0.0 0.0 10.6 2.8 5.7 5.4 4.6 0.0 4.9 7.3 2.5 6.3 3.6 7.1 4.7 6.2 4.0 6.8 0.0 11.9 5.6 5.9 6.6 7.1 5.8 4.9 4.1 4.8 4.1 2.9 7.0 6.4 4.5 4.6 4.1 2.8 3.1 6.4 3.1 7.7 4.1 0.0 8.7 5.4 3.9 0.0 3.1 3.7 6.2 6.3 5.9 4.2 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.7 1.7 0.8 1.5 0.8 2.2 0.6 0.8 1.6 1.2 1.8 0.9 1.5 0.9 1.9 2.2 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.5 3.5 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.8 1.1 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.5 0.7 0.7 1.9 0.7 2.4 1.3 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.8 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 11.0 45.1 24.1 8.1 65.4 10.4 13.4 M) (‫)س‬ M) (‫)س‬ 9.8 10.1 9.1 22.3 10.4 5.5 27.1 14.5 37.5 13.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.0 10.7 5.9 11.5 11.6 (H) ( ) 11.5 22.9 14.5 12.3 17.4 10.5 11.2 17.6 29.8 9.4 24.2 66.4 12.9 25.3 9.5 16.9 54.7 8.4 13.2 15.4 M) (‫)س‬ 21.9 11.8 11.0 20.2 13.3 13.0 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.5 0.6 1.3 2.8 M) (‫)س‬ M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 5.4 14.0 0.4 5.6 10.3 2.3 10.0 0.7 7.5 M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 5.8 13.1 5.0 0.7 -0.5 0.5 4.3 0.9 14.7 2.0 4.1 5.6 2.1 0.4 1.5 2.2 0.7 4.2 1.8 3.4 0.7 0.2 1.7 1.1 5.9 M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.9 42.6 8.4 35.5 24.1 17.4 17.3 19.5 8.4 63.1 44.9 71.8 8.6 39.4 62.2 34.1 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 13.8 17.6 113.5 43.4 12.5 19.5 10.4 55.1 11.4 78.5 20.9 32.4 46.7 24.4 19.5 20.4 28.6 69.8 22.8 34.9 47.5 11.2 12.7 30.8 17.3 71.1 5.3 23.4 27.0 15.4 117.8 32.5 28.0 Stock Price (QR) 35.5 29.0 14.6 28.4 35.8 13.2 37.1 10.8 6.4 98.0 54.5 127.0 8.0 56.7 63.5 144.5 25.0 102.5 6.4 6.7 62.1 77.0 8.5 17.4 6.1 98.0 12.6 181.0 35.0 43.0 62.3 13.2 14.5 53.7 49.0 54.8 32.4 12.3 8.6 14.4 91.0 8.0 43.0 16.1 55.5 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4