MENA Market Report - 23 January

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , January 23, 2018 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets continued the weakness from the previous session as five out of the eight indexes ended in red, while only three managed to close in green for the day. The lack of corporate news flow and positive development is resulting in marginal pullback in the regional markets. Further, the markets are also waiting for more corporate earnings to provide fresh cues for the year 2018. UAE markets ended on a negative note as both Dubai and Abu Dhabi were down by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively for the day. Dubai index recorded the second consecutive sessions of losses, which has dragged the index lower by 0.8% and reduced the gains to 3.9% for the month. Abu Dhabi, on the other hand, gave away most of the gains recorded in the previous session but remains in positive territory for the week. Saudi Arabia ended on the losing side for the second consecutive sessions as the index was down by 0.4% for the day. The index was mostly dragged lower by 1.7% decline in energy sector stocks, which overshadowed the gains in other sector indexes for the day. Egypt closed lower by 0.6% for the day, extending the losses to 1.1% for the week. Kuwait closed marginally higher by 0.1% for the day, despite the negative sentiments seen in the broader regional peers. Qatar also closed higher by 0.7% for the day, recovering the losses recorded in the previous session. Bahrain was down by 0.1%, while Oman was up by 0.2% for the day. International Markets: US markets continued the positive momentum as DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P were all up by 0.6%, 1.0% and 0.8% respectively. European markets closed on a positive note as DAX and CAC were up by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, while FTSE was down by 0.2% for the day. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a positive note as Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai are up by 1.3%, 1.2% and 0.6% respectively. Headlines (WW) NY Fed sees US first-quarter GDP slowing near 3% (SA) Saudi 2018 growth forecast revised up by IMF as oil prices rise (WW) China confident economy will maintain steady, good momentum in 2018 (AE) UAE leads region in market accessibility, connectivity (WW) Gloom shrouds UK households as inflation expectations spike (AE) EDB launches SMEs to support Emirati entrepreneurs (WW) Japan manufacturers' mood jumps to 11-year high (AE) UAE is third-best emerging market for logistics (WW) Japan's fiscal target pushed back as government prioritizes social spending (AE) Abu Dhabi plans up to four new solar power plants (WW) Germany faces risks, higher costs without focus on green finance (AE) UAE ministry of economy seeks stronger economic cooperation with Australia (WW) Russian steel producers' rally could prove fragile (AE) Sharjah apartment rents see steep decline in 2017 (WW) India to overtake China as fastest growing large economy in 2018 (EG) Egypt to see 6% economic growth rates in 2018 (CMD) Oil climbs on Saudi Arabia support for supply curb extension (EG) Egypt tax revenues up by 62%YoY in 1H 2017-18 (CMD) Gold prices break two-day fall, recover on fresh buying (QA) Qatar among top emerging markets for business climate and infrastructure (FX) Dollar dip after US govt shutdown (OM) Oman’s economy grows by 10%, deficit narrows (FX) Sterling up as May considers EU trade deal with ‘Norway-style’ payments (BH) Unemployment rate in Bahrain maintained at 4% despite challenges (FI) Spanish bond yields fall to 5-week low after ratings upgrade (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,501.33 -0.3% -0.8% 3.9% 3.9% ˄ ˅ ˅ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,629.24 -0.2% 0.1% 5.2% 5.2% ˄ ˄ ˅ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,480.89 -0.4% -0.8% 3.5% 3.5% ˄ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,625.12 0.1% -0.2% 3.4% 3.4% ˄ ˅ ˅ Egypt (EGX30) 15,243.23 -0.6% -1.1% 1.5% 1.5% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 9,211.02 0.7% 0.1% 8.1% 8.1% ˄ ˄ ˅ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,334.89 -0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% ˄ ˄ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 4,989.09 0.2% -0.7% -2.2% -2.2% ˅ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 373 256 232 44 117 97 88,383 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 57 78 91 39 38 43 135,484 Saudi (SASEIDX) 158 196 160 744 955 845 469,318 Kuwait (KWSE) 131 84 95 49 54 64 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 399 325 333 109 82 71 23,550 Qatar (DSM) 12 10 9 244 84 68 106,153 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 10 4 4 4 2 2 22,169 Oman (MSM30) 12 15 17 7 11 10 14,001 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , January 23, 2018 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB Previous Current 600 13.7 11.9 12 10.7 10.4 10.7 340.1 8.7 8.5 300 8 4 1.2 1.6 2.3 1.7 241.9 155.6 118.6 1.3 - - 0.8 0.9 Bahrain Oman - 53.0 1.4 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar 10% 5.2% 4.7% 3.9% 4% Oman Average 8.1% 8% 5.9% 4.9% Bahrain Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 8% 6% 94.9 85.3 5.2% 6% 5.0% 4.1% 4% 3.5% 3.9% 3.4% 1.5% 2% 3.1% 0.2% 0% 2% -2% 0.0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait -2.2% -4% 0% Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , January 23, 2018 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DEYAAR DEVELOPMENT PJSC 0.54 -2.35% 0 9,264 17,089 DRAKE AND SCULL INTERNATIONAL 2.14 -2.28% 0 42,680 314 123 ISLAMIC ARAB INSURANCE CO PSC 0.53 -2.04% 7,366 3,923 0.43% 5,654 13,145 DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 0.92 -2.02% 225 209 0.30% 1,799 6,088 DUBAI NATIONAL INSURANCE & REINS 3.06 -1.92% 29 89 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) UNION CEMENT CO PSC 1.78 6.59% 101 174 NATIONAL BANK OF UMM AL QAIWAI 2.75 -8.33% 1 3 ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 0.77 4.05% 2,311 1,745 NATIONAL BANK OF RAS AL KHAIMAH 4.70 -2.08% 2,275 10,806 ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 0.57 1.79% 646 365 GULF CEMENT CO PSC 1.03 -1.90% 41 43 BANK OF SHARJAH PJSC 1.22 1.67% 4,550 5,506 MANAZEL REAL ESTATE PJSC 0.58 -1.69% 8,438 4,936 ABU DHABI COMMERCIAL BANK PJSC 7.38 1.37% 2,192 16,067 ABU DHABI NATIONAL FOR BUILDING 0.58 -1.69% 938 549 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) MIDDLE EAST PAPER CO SJSC 22.18 5.22% 438 9,483 DAR AL ARKAN REAL ESTATE DEV 8.99 -6.55% 61,459 571,873 AMANA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 23.06 3.13% 1,662 37,752 SAUDI CHEMICAL CO SJSC 32.45 -3.71% 203 6,729 SALAMA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE 26.30 2.33% 1,430 37,170 RABIGH REFINING AND PETROCHEM 19.94 -3.67% 4,226 85,876 ALINMA TOKIO MARINE CO SJSC 23.20 2.11% 604 13,863 ETIHAD ETISALAT CO SJSC 14.94 -2.48% 1,814 27,445 SAUDI ADVANCED INDUSTRIES CO 13.66 1.94% 1,425 19,283 ASH SHARQIYAH DEVELOPMENT CO 47.60 -2.46% 160 7,733 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Top Losers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) AMWAL INTERNATIONAL INVEST 61.30 19.96% 8,359 470 KUWAIT BAHRAIN INTERNATIONAL EX 100.00 -36.71% 0 0 ASIYA CAPITAL INVESTMENTS CO 44.00 6.02% 1,394 60 WARBA INSURANCE COMPANY KSCP 63.60 -9.14% 15 1 50.00 -9.09% 10 1 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DXB ENTERTAINMENTS PJSC 0.66 3.45% 0 13,034 EMAAR DEVELOPMENT PJSC 5.71 1.06% 0 GULF GENERAL INVESTMENT CO PSC 0.39 0.51% EMAAR MALLS PJSC 2.33 DAMAC PROPERTIES DUBAI CO PSC 3.39 Dubai Top Gainers Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Kuwait Top Gainers AL MUDON INTERNATIONAL RE 44.00 4.76% 1,922 83 TIJARA AND REALESTATE INVESTMENT BOUBYAN INTERNATIONAL IND 37.30 3.61% 0 0 REAL ESTATE ASSET MANAGEMENT 540.00 -8.47% 0 0 MUBARRAD HOLDING CO KSCP 72.50 3.57% 225 16 AMAR FINANCE AND LEASING CO 45.00 -8.16% 0 0 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) SOUHAG NATIONAL CO FOOD IND 45.18 18.43% 0 3,100 ALEXANDRIA MEDICAL SERVICES CO 17.51 -9.97% 4 72 NATIONAL BANK OF KUWAIT EGYPT 37.70 6.44% 17 632 EL NASR FOR MANUFACTURING AGRI 8.20 -6.71% 66 562 IBNSINA PHARMA CO 9.83 5.93% 3,685 35,209 EGYPT GAS CO SAE 202.28 -6.00% 65 13,489 EL NASR TRANSFORMERS AND ELECT 17.01 5.59% 237 3,923 ARAB MOLTAQA INVESTMENTS CO 24.72 -4.81% 18 462 ARAB CERAMIC CO SAE 3.15 5.35% 843 2,588 NORTH UPPER EGYPT DEVELOPMENT 5.36 -4.80% 6 33 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) EZDAN HOLDING GROUP QSC 12.50 3.82% 388 4,760 MEDICARE GROUP QSC 77.16 -4.50% 215 16,951 GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 18.40 3.08% 142 2,572 ALIJARAH HOLDING CO QPSC 10.02 -2.72% 100 1,016 QATAR INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING 43.84 2.55% 2 76 VODAFONE QATAR QSC 7.45 -2.61% 505 3,811 OOREDOO QSC 101.00 2.54% 83 8,285 QATARI INVESTORS GROUP QSC 38.05 -2.56% 52 2,011 7.56 2.16% 5,047 37,754 GULF WAREHOUSING CO QPSC 44.10 -2.41% 1 22 Egypt Top Gainers Top Gainers Qatar Top Losers QATAR FIRST BANK LLC Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , January 23, 2018 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 85,275 106.60 0.0% 4.7% 2,166 61,573 108.20 93.25 17 2.0 5.6% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 42,266 17.85 0.3% 2.0% 1,326 6,443 18.85 15.75 17 3.7 4.5% 3 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 37,545 70.40 -0.3% 2.6% 217 4,072 78.90 64.50 15 2.3 5.7% 4 Qatar National Bank QPSC QA 34,876 137.50 1.1% 9.1% 162 6,119 157.27 115.01 10 1.6 4.4% 5 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 33,527 11.30 -0.4% 10.2% 2,551 7,850 11.55 9.72 13 1.2 4.0% 6 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 30,878 57.90 -0.3% 5.1% 215 3,320 58.20 37.00 12 1.9 2.8% 7 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp Ltd SA 30,462 70.30 0.0% 8.8% 2,779 52,097 71.70 61.00 13 2.1 3.2% 8 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 23,087 20.78 -0.3% -1.3% 480 2,659 26.05 19.76 9 1.1 3.4% 9 DP World Ltd AE 22,012 26.52 1.0% 6.1% 240 1,736 26.70 18.80 21 2.2 1.4% 10 Industries Qatar QSC QA 18,275 110.00 0.5% 13.4% 91 2,757 121.60 85.00 26 2.0 3.6% 11 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 17,230 55.30 -0.5% 6.1% 194 2,866 57.00 39.00 192 2.5 0.0% 12 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 15,469 785.00 2.1% 7.8% 2,730 7,140 800.00 640.00 16 1.4 3.6% 13 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 14,845 59.90 -0.5% 1.4% 175 2,794 75.60 58.00 413 5.5 0.0% 14 Almarai Co SJSC SA 14,213 53.30 0.2% -0.9% 297 4,227 78.64 51.80 25 3.8 1.4% 15 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 14,133 7.25 -0.4% 4.5% 16,446 32,465 8.95 6.75 9 1.2 2.1% 16 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 14,046 9.50 0.0% -3.1% 1 1 11.95 2.07 73 7.1 0.0% 17 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 13,466 25.25 -0.6% 7.4% 415 2,795 27.10 19.80 10 1.2 3.8% 18 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,953 8.56 0.1% 4.4% 2,701 6,295 8.93 7.95 6 0.8 4.7% 19 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 11,635 606.00 0.3% 5.2% 1,926 3,888 650.00 467.00 18 1.9 2.6% 20 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 11,399 28.50 -1.7% 5.6% 172 1,306 31.00 20.05 11 1.3 2.5% 21 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 11,039 13.80 -0.6% 9.7% 1,071 3,941 14.18 10.10 13 1.1 4.7% 22 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 10,445 7.38 1.4% 8.5% 2,192 4,405 7.60 6.55 9 1.2 5.4% 23 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 9,658 30.05 0.2% 5.4% 118 942 33.40 22.75 10 1.1 3.5% 24 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 9,569 63.80 -0.9% 8.1% 191 3,249 65.30 52.00 16 2.2 4.7% 25 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 9,105 12.50 3.8% 0.0% 388 1,332 16.30 6.19 17 1.1 0.0% 26 Kingdom Holding Co SA 9,032 9.14 1.2% 2.7% 471 1,147 12.05 7.90 53 1.1 5.5% 27 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,884 101.00 2.5% 11.3% 83 2,304 116.10 78.00 17 1.4 3.5% 28 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 8,692 6.46 -1.1% 4.4% 5,338 9,390 6.63 5.36 7 1.2 0.0% 29 Masraf Al Rayan QPSC QA 8,442 40.99 0.4% 8.6% 215 2,416 45.40 33.32 15 2.3 4.9% 30 Emaar Malls PJSC AE 8,256 2.33 0.4% 9.4% 5,654 3,587 2.70 2.00 15 1.9 4.3% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 590,716 3.6% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated in the DIFC (Dubai International Financial Centre) and regulated by the DFSA (Dubai Financial Services Authority). The information contained in this report does not constitute any offer to sell securities or the solicitation of any offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended to be used by experienced investment persons with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority, and as such should not be relied upon by or distributed to “Retail Clients”. More-over, none of the report is intended as a prospectus within the meaning of the applicable laws of any jurisdiction and none of the report is directed to any person in any country in which the distribution of such report is unlawful. This report provides general information only. The information and opinions in the report constitute a judgment as at the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. The information may therefore not be accurate or current. The information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express, or implied, is made by AMCML, as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness and AMCML does also not warrant that the information is up to date. Any reference to third party research material or any other report contained in this report represents the respective research organization’s estimates and views and does not represent the views of AMCML and its officers and employees do not accept any liability or responsibility whatsoever with respect to its accuracy or correctness and AMCML has included such reports or made reference to such reports in good faith. This report may also provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers, AMCML takes no responsibility whatsoever for the contents therein. Such addresses or hyperlinks are provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked site does not in any way form part of this report. Accessing such website or following such link through this report shall be at your own risk. Moreover, you should be aware of the fact that investments in undertakings, securities or other financial instruments involve general and specific risks. Past results do not guarantee future performance. AMCML does not accept any liability for any loss arising from the use of material presented in this report. AMCML may seek to do business, or may already have had some business dealings, with companies covered in this report. As a result, investors should be aware that AMCML may be considered as having a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of research produced. Investors should consider any AMCML research as only a single factor in making any investment decision. This document has not been reviewed by, approved by or filed with the DFSA. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without our prior written consent of the Company. 4