GCC Daily Market Update - 29 December

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 29 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,249.9 19,833.7 4,926.3 7,106.1 11,475.0 4,848.0 77,547.7 19,401.7 21,754.7 3,102.2 26,210.7 (19.0) (111.4) (39.5) 37.9 2.8 (0.3) 848.3 (1.3) 180.0 (12.4) (2.8) (0.8) (0.6) (0.8) 0.5 0.0 (0.0) 1.1 (0.0) 0.8 (0.4) (0.0) 2.3 3.7 2.4 4.8 7.8 5.9 4.8 6.0 (4.5) (4.5) (1.7) 10.1 13.8 7.3 13.8 6.8 4.5 8.1 1.9 (0.7) (12.3) 0.4 10,336.1 7,240.7 4,471.6 3,519.7 5,753.4 5,765.1 1,213.3 1,564.0 2,904.8 31.3 (16.5) 2.5 (22.5) 8.3 4.1 2.0 3.6 (13.0) 0.3 (0.2) 0.1 (0.6) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 (0.4) 5.5 3.4 3.8 4.7 3.6 5.1 3.3 5.1 1.1 (0.9) 4.8 3.8 11.7 2.5 6.6 (0.2) 7.8 3.8 56.2 54.1 3.9 1,139.4 249.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.1 (1.3) 0.2 0.3 4.5 0.2 (0.5) 11.3 8.8 15.2 (2.6) (4.5) 50.6 45.2 65.3 7.6 17.3 Source: Bloomberg Global Global indices were mixed on Wednesday. In US, S&P 500 index plunged 0.8% with real estate and raw-material companies leading the decline. Real Estate shares fell 0.9% after data showing worse than expected pending home sales. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.3% as Miners led gains, rising the most in three weeks and offsetting declines in defensive sectors. Gains in Mining stocks comes amidst the backdrop of strengthening crude prices. Banking stocks however declined on ongoing concerns about the future of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena. In Asia, Chinese stocks indices fell as investors’ sentiment was dampened after China’s Insurance Regulatory Commission's latest measures to put insurers' aggressive stock investments under strict supervision. Toshiba (-20%) weighed on Japan’s index after the company warned about a huge write-down. GCC Most Gulf stocks rose on Wednesday. Saudi Arabia’s main index fell 0.2% with Saudi Electricity down 2.6%, as investors booked profits in the stock. Second tier petrochemical stocks posted strong gains buoyed by rise in oil prices. Al Othaim Markets added 3.7% after saying it expected to make a capital gain of SAR 112.1mn (USD 29.9mn) from the sale of a shopping mall in Ha'el City. Dubai’s main index dropped 0.6% in moderate trading volume as Emaar Properties dropped 2.5%. Abu Dhabi’s main index edged up 0.1% supported by a 0.8% gain in Etisalat. Qatar QE index gained 0.3%, snapping three days of bearish spell on the back of strong buying support in Telecom, Transport, Insurance and Industrials stocks. Strong buying support from foreign investors, was to some extent offset by bearish bets from their Qatari counterparts. Trade turnover and volumes expanded in the market, where Realty, Banking and Telecom sectors together accounted for about 89% of the total trade volumes. Out of 44 stocks traded, 41 exchanged hands of which 24 gained, 9 fell and 8 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.0 1.6 4.0 63.7 DSM 20 15.0 1.6 3.9 55.6 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.2 1.7 3.2 1,563.3 UAE (ADX) 11.5 1.4 5.5 41.9 UAE (DFM) 11.5 1.3 3.9 104.5 GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Kuwait (KSE) 19.5 1.0 4.2 70.7 Oman (MSM) 10.9 1.1 5.0 6.8 Bahrain (BAX) 9.9 0.4 4.6 2.1 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Widam Food Co Mazaya Qatar Real Est. Qatar Navigation Dlala Holding Ooredoo Qsc Top Losers Doha Insurance Co Commercial Bank Qsc Medicare Group United Development Al Khalij Comm. Bank Close Price 67.0 14.4 96.9 21.3 101.7 2.0 0.4 1.9 0.4 1.7 3.1 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.7 26.9 6.1 2.0 15.1 35.6 17.8 30.2 62.5 20.0 16.8 (0.6) (0.8) (0.5) (0.2) (0.1) (3.4) (2.6) (0.8) (0.7) (0.4) (15.1) (31.6) (47.6) (3.9) (6.3) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 31.4 62.6 14.2 6.9 3,331.1 16.8 0.9 121.9 12.3 17.6 8.1 NA 37.6 52.7 14.9 (15.1) (30.1) (47.9) (2.2) (3.6) 0.5 263.2 45.2 62.6 40.7 9.0 29.7 20.2 12.9 10.4 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 2/Oct 40.0 10,336.1 20.0 0.0 16/Oct 30/Oct 13/Nov Index Volume (mn) 27/Nov 11/Dec 25/Dec Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,877.5 5,855.8 3,276.6 4,356.1 2,232.3 1,202.3 2,550.9 1D Change (%) (0.0) 0.1 0.5 0.6 (0.1) 1.4 1.0 Buy (%) 27.3 26.3 53.6 11.5 34.9 46.4 Sell (%) 40.9 27.9 68.8 9.7 21.5 31.2 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 29 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS  US shale drillers are set to ramp up spending on exploration and production in 2017 as recovering oil prices prompt banks to extend credit lines for the first time in two years. (Source: Reuters)  Contracts to buy previously owned US homes fell in November-16 to their lowest level since January-16, a sign rising interest rates could be weighing on the housing market, the National Association of Realtors said. The group said its pending home sales index, dropped 2.5% MoM to 107.3 based on contracts signed in November-16. (Source: Reuters)   The Japanese economy is on a ‘moderate recovery trend’ on the back of stronger exports and industrial production, the Bank of Japan’s December Summary of Opinions showed. (Source: Economic Calendar) Turkey’s automotive exports are expected to increase 8% YoY to reach USD 25bn in 2017. Around USD 10bn of these exports will most likely be achieved by domestic suppliers, the head of the Turkish Automotive Parts Industry Association said. (Source: HDN) expenses, according to BMI Research. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabian commercial bank deposits rose to their highest level this year in November-16. Bank deposits climbed to SAR 1.62tn (USD 433bn) from SAR 1.61tn in October-16, the fourth straight MoM gain, the central bank figures showed. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia's Petrorabigh has chosen HSBC Capital as a financial adviser for a SAR 9.3bn (USD 2.5bn) rights issue to fund its expansion, the company said in a bourse statement. (Source: Arabian Business)  Middle East Healthcare Co. signed a SAR 300mn Murabahah financing agreement with Samba Financial Group which will be used for the construction and equipment of Saudi German Hospital in Dammam. (Source: CPI Financial)  Financial)  GCC NEWS  Petrol prices across the UAE are set to rise from 1st January-17 following a drop in prices this month. While prices of petrol are set to rise by 11 fils, diesel will witness a rise of 13 fils. (Source: Arabian Business)  Investment Corporation of Dubai (ICD) posted a net profit of AED 10.3bn (USD 2.8bn) for H1-16, a decline of 19.4% YoY. Weakness in the bottom line was majorly due to a 7.8% YoY fall in revenues, which the company attributes to global macroeconomic headwinds. (Source: Dubai developer Meydan Group secured a USD 272mn Islamic financing facility from Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank to fund its projects in Dubai. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD) is studying and assessing new development projects proposed by the Moroccan government. The fund had already financed 17 projects worth AED 3.5bn across the Transport, Housing, Water, Healthcare and Education sectors over the last 40 years in Morocco. (Source: Trade Arabia).  The Abu Dhabi Oil Refining Company (Takreer), an Adnoc Group company, awarded two major contracts for its Gasoline and Aromatics Project (GAP) to UK based Amec International (for front-end engineering design) and France based Axens (for process license technology). (Source: Trade Arabia).  Tadweer (the Center of Waste Management, Abu Dhabi) has entered into a five-year partnership with a leading environmental management company Bee’ah, to integrate and develop innovative waste management solutions, and also enhance environmental sustainability for the city. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Four top managers at National Bank of Abu Dhabi are leaving the bank ahead of a merger with First Gulf Bank. The mangers leaving prominently include the deputy CEO, Abdulla Mohammed Saleh Abdul Raheem and the senior MD CEO of Gulf and International. (Source: Arabian Business)  The Council of Ministers of the Saudi Arabia have approved the appointment of the board of the General Entertainment Authority charged with developing, promoting, regulating and funding infrastructure for an entertainment industry in the Gulf kingdom.  Saudi Arabia's top sovereign wealth fund, Public Investment Fund (PIF) is buying a stake in UAE utility company Utico in a multi-million dollar deal, the chief executive of the UAE firm revealed. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia’s austerity measures will weigh heavily on consumer spending in 2017 with households cutting back on non-essential The Sheikh Jaber Al Ahmad Al Sabah causeway, one of the largest infrastructure projects to be constructed in the GCC region with an estimated construction value of USD 3bn, is on track for opening in November-18 as nearly 70% of work has been completed. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait is set to begin importing up to 200 mn cubic feet of gas daily from neighbouring Iraq, oil ministers from the two Arab nations said. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Kuwait Energy signed a forward sale agreement with Vitol providing it with a financing facility for up to USD 100mn. The agreement with Vitol will enable Kuwait Energy to continue with its production plans in Block 9 in Iraq by bringing more wells on stream and increasing output. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS  FDI into Qatar amounted to QAR 137.2bn in 2015 with manufacturing cornering the maximum share of the total stock, according to a recent report by MDPS. In terms of book value, the manufacturing sector received QAR 72.3bn, or 53%, of total FDI inflows in 2015, followed by mining and quarrying QAR 47.4bn (35%) and financial and insurance QAR 10.1bn (7%). (Source: Gulf Times)  The value of Qatar’s assets with non-residents at the end of 2015 touched QAR 347bn (USD 95.3bn), up by QAR 23.5bn (USD 6.5bn) compared to QAR 323.2bn (USD 88.8bn) recorded at the end of 2014, official data from MDPS showed. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar Airways reportedly revealed a positive outlook for 2017, while its peers Emirates and Etihad Airways scale back in response to tough economic conditions. Qatar Airways is the only one amongst the three to have grown during H1-16, the Centre for Aviation reported. (Source: Arabian Business)  Qatar Airways, through its wholly owned subsidiary Qatar Airways Investments (UK) Ltd, completed its acquisition of 10% of LATAM shares worth USD 608.4mn. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar Airways has taken delivery of some 19 new aircraft in 2016, creating a total fleet of 192 aircraft. The company continues with its fleet expansion strategy, having placed a record USD 11.7bn order for 30 ‘B787-9 Dreamliners’ and 10 ‘777-300ERs’, and signing a letter of intent for up to 60 ‘737 Max 8s’ valued at USD 6.9bn. (Source: Gulf Times)  Quality Group International is opening its seventh retail outlet in Qatar at Al Khor on 1st January-17. The three-storey Quality Mall, spread over 140,000sft, would feature a number of franchises, dealing in fashion accessories, apparels and more. (Source: Gulf Times) (Source: Arabian Business)  Bahrain-based Solidarity Group Holding, the largest Takaful Group in the world, announced the acquisition of a majority stake in Al Ahlia Insurance Company in a deal worth BHD 10.7mn (USD 27.8mn). (Source: Trade Arabia) Arabian Business)  The paid up capital of Al-Ahli United Bank has been increased due to the issuance of 6.3mn shares pursuant to the approval from the (EGM) meeting held on 31st March-15, Bahrain Bourse announced. (Source: CPI 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 29 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0443 USD/QAR 3.6413 117.2600 EUR/QAR 3.8026 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2256 JPY/QAR 0.0311 USD/CHF 1.0284 GBP/QAR 4.4628 USD/CAD 1.3560 CHF/QAR 3.5407 AUD/USD 0.7177 CAD/QAR 2.6853 NZD/USD 0.6921 AUD/QAR 2.6134 USD/INR 67.7400 INR/QAR 0.0538 USD/TRY 3.5402 TRY/QAR 1.0286 USD/ZAR 13.8569 ZAR/QAR 0.2628 USD/BRL 3.2778 BRL/QAR 1.1109 FX Commentary USD rose against the basket of major currencies with dollar index up 0.28%. An unexpected decline of 2.5% YoY in US pending sales has little impact on the greenback, which has been benefitting from a slew of generally positive economic data and hawkish Fed. Commodity linked currencies however strengthened against the greenback, with gains in oil prices benefitting. With no major driver’s supporting the GBP, the currency fell and investors focused on the Brexit negotiation due in the upcoming year. The euro fell as much as 0.8 percent against the dollar to an eight-day low, as concerns of capital needs of Italian bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena and a rise in German public debt for Q3-16 weighed on the currency. JPY gained against the greenback, as positive industrial output and a sharp rebound in export activity lifted the sentiments. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.69 0.71 0.76 1.00 1.69 (0.41) (0.37) (0.37) (0.32) (0.08) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 1.32 1.38 1.49 1.81 2.42 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.24 1.81 2.04 2.43 2.0% EIBOR 0.48 0.83 0.97 1.48 2.07 BMIBOR 0.63 0.73 1.20 1.73 2.18 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.13 1.44 2.06 0.0% 2.49% 0.63% 0.37% 1.66% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 2.96% 2.96% 2.11% 2.45% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.64% 3.11% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 27.3 7.0 Turkey 275.7 32.8 UK 34.0 (8.5) Brazil 280.8 (39.3) Germany 21.9 0.9 Egypt 453.3 (47.5) France 38.2 (6.3) Abu Dhabi 63.0 (27.3) 161.5 0.6 Bahrain 298.4 (76.5) 2.21% 2.02% 2.0% 2.64% 2.64% 1.49% 1.98% 1.75% 1.0% 2.40% 2.21% Italy 1.18% Greece 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 1,093.1 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 82.2 Dubai 139.0 (37.5) Russia 177.5 (54.6) Qatar 78.5 (28.8) Japan 29.5 (12.0) Saudi Arabia 115.0 (58.0) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey 10:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Mfg Dec 52 Prior 53.6 10:00 UK Nationwide House PX MoM Dec 0.20% 0.10% 10:00 UK Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Dec 3.80% 4.40% 12:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply YoY Nov 4.40% 4.40% 16:30 US Advance Goods Trade Balance Nov ($61.6b) ($61.9b) 16:30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Nov P 0.20% (0.40%) 16:30 US Retail Inventories MoM Nov - (0.40%) 16:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Dec-24th 16:30 US Continuing Claims Dec-17th 17:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Dec-25th - 46.7 10:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Services Dec 53.3 54.7 10:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Composite Dec - 55.8 265k 275k 2027k 2036k Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 29 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 9.9 0.0 8.7 1.7 5.9 4.7 3.2 0.0 4.1 6.4 1.8 5.9 3.3 8.0 6.3 5.1 5.5 5.2 0.0 9.1 4.0 4.8 5.7 7.0 3.2 4.3 4.5 3.4 2.1 6.7 3.9 4.2 4.8 5.6 2.3 2.9 7.8 2.7 6.7 3.3 1.9 7.5 4.5 3.0 2.3 2.8 2.2 5.4 5.2 4.9 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.7 2.3 0.9 2.5 1.0 2.3 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.7 2.1 1.0 1.7 1.8 1.4 2.6 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.8 4.2 0.8 1.7 1.1 1.5 2.1 1.4 3.2 2.9 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.8 2.5 0.7 2.3 1.6 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.2 1.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.5 15.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.1 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.4 13.2 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.3 12.0 11.1 27.8 11.5 20.2 7.2 21.7 13.2 11.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.8 14.2 6.2 11.4 13.5 34.3 21.1 19.2 15.3 25.4 10.8 11.1 18.6 18.0 9.0 18.8 4.2 12.6 11.8 13.1 23.1 16.8 12.9 18.4 14.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.4 16.3 13.1 12.4 13.1 14.1 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 3.1 10.9 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 35.1 55.3 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 39.0 30.2 21.3 34.4 61.1 16.8 37.4 15.4 10.1 103.1 62.8 161.1 10.1 62.5 78.9 176.0 27.5 145.2 10.1 11.1 67.0 83.0 13.6 31.0 116.5 15.7 222.0 58.4 44.8 85.7 21.0 17.8 82.9 47.0 51.0 33.1 15.1 14.4 20.0 101.7 9.2 55.5 23.0 96.9 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4