GCC Daily Market Update - 28 December

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 28 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,682.6 24,774.3 6,435.2 7,620.7 13,070.0 5,368.8 112,149.7 22,911.2 29,597.7 3,275.8 33,911.8 2.1 28.1 2.0 28.0 (2.8) 4.1 143.1 18.5 19.7 (30.3) (98.8) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 (0.0) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 (0.9) (0.3) 1.3 2.1 1.1 4.0 0.4 (0.1) 7.9 0.8 1.4 (1.2) 2.3 19.8 25.4 32.3 6.7 13.8 10.4 43.5 19.9 34.5 5.5 27.4 8,500.1 7,201.2 4,369.4 3,345.7 6,371.3 5,040.4 1,295.0 1,572.8 3,636.7 (1.0) 23.7 49.6 13.5 1.9 33.7 9.7 (9.6) 9.3 (0.0) 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.8 (0.6) 0.3 10.2 2.8 2.0 (2.2) 2.8 (1.4) 0.9 2.5 1.1 (18.6) (0.1) (3.9) (5.2) 10.8 (12.8) 6.1 0.4 25.3 66.4 59.6 2.7 1,287.0 325.7 (0.6) (0.3) 0.1 2.9 0.1 (0.9) (0.6) 3.6 0.2 0.0 4.6 4.0 (9.5) 1.4 8.1 17.1 11.2 (26.5) 12.1 31.1 Source: Bloomberg Global US markets closed higher yesterday, amidst a thin trading volumes on account of holiday season. The S&P 500 index settled higher, as the US consumer confidence data remained at multi-year high level during December-17. Real Estate, Utility and Industrial shares were among the notable gainers. The Stoxx Europe 600 index settled 0.1% higher at 390.54, while the UK’s benchmark rose 0.4%. The gains in the UK’s benchmark were largely contributed by gains in Mining shares, as copper prices continued to advance for the 15th consecutive session. The Hang Seng index rose 0.1%, largely on the back of gains in Chinese Property Developers. The Chinese benchmark inched lower, following reports about slowing growth of the nation’s industrial sector earnings. GCC GCC markets closed higher yesterday, as oil prices remained higher during the gulf trading session. In Saudi Arabia, most Petrochemical shares advanced, as higher oil prices improved pricing prospects of the companies. Construction stocks edged higher, amid optimism that higher oil prices might lead to higher construction spending in the region. In Dubai, Safwa Mubasher fell significantly, after its CEO stated that the company has completed an internal transaction of transferring 276mn shares from a Bahrain-based affiliate to its Dubai parent. Oil-linked shares in Abu Dhabi were also among the notable gainers, lifting the index by 1.2%. Qatar The QE index remained broadly unchanged yesterday. Increased buying support from Qatari retail and foreign institutional investors was offset by net selling pressure from local institutional investors. Trade turnover and volume decreased, with Banking, Industrial and Realty shares together accounting for 87% of the total value. Gulf International Services rose 2.3%, as higher oil prices during the gulf session, improved daily rate prospects for the company. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 43 exchanged hands, 24 declined, 18 advanced and 1 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.7 1.3 4.4 47.5 DSM 20 13.7 1.3 4.6 34.6 8,500 10.0 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.0 1.6 3.4 1,214.3 8,000 5.0 UAE (ADX) 15.7 1.3 4.6 62.4 UAE (DFM) 21.1 1.2 4.2 67.7 Kuwait (KSE) 15.6 1.0 5.4 23.5 Oman (MSM) 12.1 1.0 5.2 2.9 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.6 0.8 6.0 1.8 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Zad Holding Co Al Ahli Bank Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Qatar Industrial Manu Gulf Int’l Services Top Losers Qatar Islamic Insurance Qatar Insurance Co Ooredoo Qpsc Islamic Holding Group Qatar General Ins Close Price 77.0 32.6 13.0 43.9 17.6 7.0 2.9 0.5 1.6 0.4 10.0 9.7 3.9 3.8 2.3 (13.7) (12.2) (38.4) (1.4) (43.4) (7.3) (12.2) (38.1) (2.0) (43.2) 0.6 9.7 1.1 10.1 365.8 29.5 6.9 10.8 159.4 NA 55.1 53.0 90.6 34.8 49.9 (2.4) (1.7) (2.9) (0.8) (1.0) (4.1) (3.1) (3.1) (2.2) (2.0) 8.9 (28.1) (11.0) (43.0) 6.2 8.1 (26.5) (10.9) (43.0) 6.2 0.8 242.9 31.8 15.8 70.8 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 13.0 22.3 15.1 64.2 67.6 Qatar DSM Index 9,000 7,500 1/Oct 15.0 8,500.1 0.0 15/Oct 29/Oct 12/Nov Index Volume (mn) 26/Nov 10/Dec 24/Dec Index Value Closing Level 2,674.7 4,855.0 2,609.6 3,543.2 1,905.5 1,095.0 1,746.8 1D Change (%) 0.1 0.6 0.3 (2.7) (0.3) (2.7) 1.3 Buy (%) 50.2 14.9 65.1 11.7 23.2 34.9 Sell (%) 45.7 19.9 65.6 13.7 20.7 34.4 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 28 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS  US pending home sales index, a forward looking indicator based on contract signings, increased by 0.2% MoM and 0.8% YoY to 109.5 in November-17, driven by increase in pending home sale by 4.1% MoM in the Northeast area. (Source: NAR)  Japan’s retail sales increased by a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.9% MoM and 2.2% YoY in November-17, driven by increase in sales of larger retailers by 1.4% YoY. (Source: Market Insider)  Japan’s industrial output increased by a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY in November-17, driven by rise in output of industries like business oriented machinery, electronic parts and devices and petroleum and coal products, while industries like chemicals, plastic products and other manufacturing reported a decrease in the output. (Source: Market Insider)  Japan’s housing starts declined by 0.4% YoY to 951,000 in November17. The construction orders received by 50 big contractors increased by 20.5% YoY during the same period. (Source: iii)  Turkey’s exports are expected to reach USD 156.5bn in the year 2017, with current value of exports amounted to USD 153.0bn for the period 1st January-17 to 25th December-17, according to the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TİM) data. TIM’s Chairman expects export data to reach USD 14.0bn in December-17. (Source: Daily Sabah) GCC NEWS  UAE’s consumer price index increased by 1.7% YoY in November-17, driven by increase in the prices of food and beverage by 1.9% YoY and transportation by 3.7% YoY. (Source: Gulf News)  UAE along with Tajikistan is planning to create a joint investment fund to boost economic ties between the two countries. The fund would assist investments in various sectors like infrastructure, energy, tourism and agriculture of the Tajikistan economy. (Source: Gulf News)  Dubai based The Federal Electricity and Water Authority stated that it is currently working on 7 water development projects worth AED 315.0mn (USD 86.0mn) in Ajman. These projects include the construction of AED 85.0mn 1,000.0mm water line in the Port, Al Bustan and Karama areas, which is expected to be completed by 2018. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Gulf Finance Corporation has signed a partnership agreement with Al Amaal Business Services TAS’HEEL center to expand its distribution network. Al Amaal Business Services would offer Gulf Finance’s Labour Guarantee issuances and E-Dirham services. (Source:  Abu Dhabi based Al Forsan Real Estate company has leased out 95.0% of all its villas and more than 67.0% of its apartments, which were meant for employee accommodation in Abu Dhabi. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi based National Central Cooling Company has signed a three year service agreement with Masdar, a renewable energy company, to operate Masdar’s first district cooling plant. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia’s government is planning to build 31 new technical education institutions in Makkah province with an investment of worth SAR 1.3bn (USD 346.0mn) through its Technical and Vocational Training Corporation. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia based companies, who are working on contract with government departments, are liable to modify their bills so as to include 5.0% VAT. The VAT would be applied on the actual dates of supply instead of the issue dates. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB) has announced that the government treasury bill, issue number 40, worth BHD 100.0mn has been oversubscribed by 117.0%, whose issue date is 28th December17 with maturity of 12 months. The weighted average rate of interest is 3.68%. (Source: BNA)  The CBB has also announced that the government treasury bill, issue number 1684,worth BHD 35.0mn has been oversubscribed by 117.0%, whose issue date is 31th December-17 with maturity of 182 days. The weighted average rate of interest is 3.09%. (Source: BNA)  Bahrain based renewable energy and infrastructure services solution provider, OAK Group has been awarded a contract, in association with Saudi Arabia based Al Hamdan Consulting, for phase 1 Front-End Engineering Design of a by-product recycling plant near Sadara’s complex in Saudi Arabia. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman's Ministry of Transport and Communications is planning to float tenders for its four-lane Muscat-Bidbid expressway project in 2018. The ministry has also awarded a contract to Oman Global Logistics Group (Asyad) to manage tunnels on Bidbid/Sur road. (Source: Trade Arabia)  QATAR NEWS  The Cabinet has approved a draft law on regulating ownership of properties for non-Qataris and use of real estate as per conditions specified. The law provisions would be applicable on land space, buildings and residential units, and detachment units in residential complexes. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  The Supreme Committee for Delivery and Legacy, represented by Josoor Institute, has signed a MoU with Silatech, the international social development organisation, to create jobs and expand economic opportunities for youth in the Arab world. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s Hamad Port would start direct shipping line to two major ports in Indonesia, according to Indonesian Ambassador to Qatar, wit an aim to boost trade volume between the two countries. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  The Ministry of Economy and Commerce has has ordered to shut down a building block factory for 1 month, located in Al-Khor for displaying and selling blocks that do not match the standard specifications. The factory was fined in line with Article (6) of Law Number (8) of 2008. Gulf Base)     Dubai based developer, Sweid & Sweid, has appointed Civilco Civil Engineering & Contracting Company to act as the lead contractor for its Banyan Tree Residences project in Dubai. The project would built 244 residences spread over 32 storeys structure. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai based brokerage firm, Fam Properties, has introduced an Oracle based customer relationship management system which would transform the method by which real estate agents and landlords communicate in the UAE and will also help tenants resolve issues in a timely manner. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai based property developer, Danube Properties has awarded contract worth AED 221.0mn (USD 60.1mn) to Naresco Contracting for the construction of its residential project, Miraclz Tower, located near Miracle Gardens at Arjan district of Dubailand . The tower would have 599 units which would have 591 apartments. (Source: Trade Arabia) Abu Dhabi Business Centre of the Department of Economic Development has introduced the 'Electronic Trading' license drive in cooperation with the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority. (Source: Trade Arabia) Oman’s central bank has raised OMR 68.6mn by allotting treasury bills with a maturity of 28days and average price of OMR 99.895 per OMR 100 per share. The average discount rate and the average yield were 1.1816% and 1.1827% respectively. (Source: Times of Oman) (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Public Works Authority (Ashghal) has allocated total QAR 21.8bn for project in 2018. Out of the total, QAR 11.1bn has been allocated for establishing highways, QAR 8.9bn for infrastructure and roads and QAR 1.8bn for sewer pumping stations, according to the company’s President. (Source: Qatar Tribune) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 28 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1918 USD/QAR 3.6415 113.3500 EUR/QAR 4.3399 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3430 JPY/QAR 0.0321 USD/CHF 0.9863 GBP/QAR 4.8905 USD/CAD 1.2655 CHF/QAR 3.6921 AUD/USD 0.7768 CAD/QAR 2.8775 NZD/USD 0.7057 AUD/QAR 2.8287 USD/INR 63.6550 INR/QAR 0.0572 USD/TRY 3.8163 TRY/QAR 0.9542 USD/ZAR 12.2684 ZAR/QAR 0.2968 USD/BRL 3.3166 BRL/QAR 1.0980 FX Commentary The USD edged lower against a basket of currencies yesterday, with the dollar index settling 0.2% lower at 93.027. The losses in the greenback were triggered following speculations that most central banks apart from US Fed might reduce the monetary stimulus during 2018, as global economy continues to recover. The EUR and GBP remained higher, amidst broad based weakness in the USD. The JPY inched higher against the USD, on the back of encouraging Japanese housing data released yesterday. The CHF strengthened against the USD, as the ZEW business conditions data in Switzerland grew considerably during December-17. Commodity-linked currencies like AUD and CAD inched higher, as copper prices continued its upward trajectory to reach its 4-year high level. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.43 1.49 1.56 1.69 2.10 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) 2.05 2.20 2.39 2.73 3.05 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.61 1.69 1.90 2.29 2.0% EIBOR 1.13 1.47 1.62 1.83 2.56 BMIBOR 1.30 1.55 2.13 2.35 2.93 NA NA 1.69 1.88 2.38 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.29% 1.89% 3.05% 3.31% 3.58% 2.22% 2.35% 2.42% 2.76% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 4.40% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 27.3 0.8 Turkey 170.6 (21.4) UK 20.3 (1.8) Brazil 164.8 (76.4) Germany 11.6 (5.0) Egypt 336.4 (71.4) France 19.6 (4.3) Abu Dhabi 64.7 (0.7) Italy 121.0 (27.4) Bahrain 290.7 31.5 Greece 428.9 (203.0) Dubai 133.9 (2.8) Russia 120.4 (50.8) Qatar 104.1 (13.7) Japan 27.3 0.3 94.0 (18.7) 2.08% 2.26% 2.0% 2.06% 1.0% 2.32% 2.41% 2.68% 2.25% 2.44% 2.54% 1.51% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 09:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Mfg 12:00 Eurozone ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin 12:30 UK UK Finance Loans for Housing 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve 16:30 US Advance Goods Trade Balance 16:30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM 16:30 US Retail Inventories MoM Period Survey Prior Dec 52 51.5 - - - Nov - 40,488 Dec-22nd - 430.3b Nov ($67.9b) ($68.1b) Nov P 0.30% (0.50%) Nov - (0.10%) 16:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Dec-23rd 240k 245k 16:30 US Continuing Claims Dec-16th 1,900k 1,932k 17:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Dec 62 63.9 17:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Dec-24th - 50.8 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 28 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.1 0.0 0.0 10.6 2.9 6.0 5.4 4.6 0.0 4.9 7.4 2.5 6.3 s 7.1 4.8 6.3 4.0 6.8 0.0 11.9 5.6 5.9 6.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 5.7 4.8 4.1 4.7 4.2 2.9 6.8 6.4 4.2 4.6 41.4 2.8 3.0 6.4 4.4 7.7 4.2 0.0 8.8 5.4 3.9 0.0 3.1 3.7 6.3 6.4 5.9 4.2 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.7 1.8 0.8 1.4 0.7 2.2 0.6 0.8 1.5 1.2 1.8 0.9 1.5 0.9 1.8 2.1 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.5 3.6 0.7 1.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.9 0.6 1.8 1.1 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.7 0.7 0.7 1.9 0.7 2.4 1.3 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.8 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 10.1 45.1 24.3 8.1 63.7 9.9 13.4 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.7 10.0 9.1 22.2 10.4 5.5 26.7 14.4 37.5 13.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.2 10.9 5.9 11.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 11.7 22.8 14.7 12.1 17.4 10.7 11.2 18.9 29.3 9.4 23.9 67.6 13.0 25.2 9.5 16.5 55.0 8.3 13.0 15.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 21.4 11.9 10.9 20.0 13.2 13.1 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.5 0.6 1.3 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 5.4 14.0 0.4 5.6 10.3 2.3 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 5.8 13.1 5.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 0.5 4.3 0.9 14.7 2.0 4.1 5.6 1.9 0.4 1.5 2.2 0.7 4.2 1.8 3.4 0.7 0.2 1.7 1.1 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.9 42.6 8.4 35.5 24.1 17.4 17.0 19.5 8.4 63.1 44.9 71.8 8.6 39.4 62.2 34.1 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 13.8 17.6 113.5 43.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.5 10.4 55.1 11.4 78.5 20.9 32.4 46.7 21.9 19.5 20.4 28.6 69.8 22.8 34.9 47.5 11.2 12.7 30.8 17.3 71.1 5.4 23.5 27.0 15.4 117.8 32.5 27.3 Stock Price (QR) 32.6 29.0 14.7 28.4 34.8 12.5 37.1 10.8 6.5 96.6 54.1 127.9 7.9 56.5 62.5 143.0 25.0 102.5 6.3 6.8 63.0 77.0 8.4 17.6 6.2 97.5 12.7 178.8 34.9 43.9 62.3 13.0 14.5 53.0 49.9 55.1 32.4 12.0 8.7 14.3 90.6 7.9 43.1 16.0 55.0 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4