GCC Daily Market Update - 27 November

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 27 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,602.4 23,558.0 6,409.3 7,409.6 13,059.8 5,390.5 104,539.4 22,550.9 29,866.3 3,353.8 33,679.2 5.3 31.8 23.2 (7.6) 51.3 10.9 (486.7) 27.7 158.4 1.9 91.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 (0.1) 0.4 0.2 (0.5) 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.8 2.6 (1.1) (1.3) (2.1) (5.1) 2.4 5.7 (1.2) 1.4 16.2 19.2 31.8 3.7 13.8 10.9 33.8 18.0 35.8 8.1 26.5 7,758.1 6,933.8 4,282.3 3,449.1 6,256.7 5,111.1 1,277.0 1,543.3 3,603.2 15.6 55.6 (4.8) (11.8) 17.3 24.8 0.5 (0.2) 0.0 0.2 0.8 (0.1) (0.3) 0.3 0.5 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 (5.0) (0.0) (4.4) (5.1) (3.9) 2.0 0.0 (4.8) 2.1 (25.7) (3.8) (5.8) (2.3) 8.8 (11.6) 4.6 (1.8) 23.8 63.9 59.0 2.8 1,287.3 316.9 0.3 0.9 (0.2) (4.9) 3.2 0.5 1.6 (5.2) (0.4) 1.0 3.9 7.9 1.0 1.3 2.0 12.3 9.3 (21.5) 11.8 26.2 Global US equity markets ended higher on Friday, buoyed by optimistic outlook for holiday shopping. The S&P 500 index settled above the psychological 2,600 mark for the first time, while Nasdaq outperformed its peer indices. The Stoxx Europe 600 edged down by 0.1% as gains in Financial stocks were offset by strength in EUR. The German benchmark gained 0.4% as the sentiment was boosted by growing prospect of grand coalition of Angela Merkel’s party with Social Democrats. The UK benchmark index ended marginally lower by 0.1%, weighed by pullback in Retail shares, however gains in Financial and Oil & Gas sector limited the overall losses. The Chinese benchmark ended flat amidst the ongoing liquidity concerns as PBOC injected smaller-than-expected amount of cash into its financial system. GCC Most GCC markets ended higher yesterday. The Saudi Arabian benchmark gained 0.8% as the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s stated that most of the detained businessmen have agreed to settle the charges against them, which would reduce the impact of corruption crackdown. The announcement by securities regulator to further ease requirements for FIIs in the stock market also buoyed the market. In Abu Dhabi, Manazel Real Estate gained 1.9% after the company said plans were underway to expand into MENA markets, including Saudi Arabia. Qatar The QE index gained 0.2%, on back of buying support from local retail and foreign institutional investors. Trade turnover and volumes increased, with Banking, Telecom, Real Estate and Industrials sectors together accounting for more than 84% of the total volume. Out of the 45 companies listed, 41 exchanged hands, of which 31 advanced, 5 declined and 5 remain unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 12.0 1.1 5.0 70.3 DSM 20 12.4 1.1 5.1 60.5 8,500 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.4 1.6 3.5 737.4 8,000 UAE (ADX) 15.3 1.2 4.7 13.0 UAE (DFM) 21.8 1.3 4.1 49.9 Kuwait (KSE) 15.0 1.0 5.5 37.1 Oman (MSM) 12.3 1.0 5.1 3.2 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.1 0.8 6.1 1.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatari Investors Group Medicare Group Islamic Holding Group Ezdan Holding Group Qatar Islamic Insurance Top Losers Industries Qatar Qatar National Bank Commercial Bank Pqsc Mesaieed Petroche Qatar Gas Transport Close Price 27.5 55.0 31.4 7.6 46.4 2.5 5.0 2.9 0.7 4.2 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.9 (53.0) (12.6) (48.6) (49.4) (8.3) (48.8) (13.7) (41.9) (48.4) (4.7) 295.1 75.0 86.7 601.2 32.5 92.2 116.0 26.0 12.6 13.5 (2.3) (1.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (2.5) (1.0) (0.9) (0.6) (0.5) (21.5) (21.7) (16.0) (20.3) (41.5) (11.5) (15.3) (16.6) (16.3) (40.6) 318.3 21.6 624.9 8.5 67.0 54.3 97.1 14.6 659.7 9.2 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 13.7 23.4 57.8 10.4 11.0 Qatar DSM Index 9,000 7,500 30/Aug 15.0 10.0 7,758.1 5.0 0.0 13/Sep 27/Sep 11/Oct Index Volume (mn) 25/Oct 8/Nov 22/Nov Index Value Closing Level 2,463.0 4,305.5 2,405.6 2,815.1 1,385.2 995.6 1,502.9 1D Change (%) (0.1) 2.1 0.3 0.7 5.8 0.7 2.2 Buy (%) 46.2 21.5 67.7 12.6 19.7 32.3 Sell (%) 33.8 27.8 61.6 10.8 27.6 38.4 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 27 , 2017 to USD 20.0bn. The complex is expected to process 400,000 barrels of crude oil per day, which would start operations in 2025. (Source: Zawya) GLOBAL NEWS  Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index rose to a reading of 117.5 in November-17 as compared to 116.8 in October-17, while current economic assessment index stood at a reading of 124.4 during November-17, compared to 124.8 in October-17. (Source: Cesifo)      Fitch rating agency stated that reduction in Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) economic growth forecasts is due to increase in challenges for medium to long-term UK’s public finances. OBR forecast real GDP growth to average 1.4% till 2020 from its previous forecast of 1.8%. (Source: Hellenic Shipping News) Saudi Aramco has awarded a contract worth USD 750.0mn to USD 1.5bn to McDermott, a leading company for integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) services. The contract is aimed to provide full set of EPCI services for 9 slipover jackets, 10 production deck modules, an electrical distribution platform and associated cables and pipeline. (Source: Trade Arabia)  China’s industrial profits for 10 months ending October-17 rose 23.3% YoY to CNY 6.3tn, while profits rose 25.1% YoY for the month of October-17, helped by improvement in oil prices. (Source: Strait Times) Saudi Arabia based Fawaz Alhokair Group announced that its planned IPO for its mall unit has been on hold after the accounts of its cofounder were frozen as part of the Saudi Arabia’s corruption crackdown. (Source: Gulf Business)  Kuwaiti Oil Minister, Issam Al-Marzouq, announced that Kuwait and Iraq have signed a preliminary agreement on a price for exports of Iraqi gas. Iraq would agree to export 50.0mn cu.ft. of gas per day for ten years under the terms of the deal. (Source: Reuters)  Oman’s crude oil exports declined 8.7% YoY to 245.2mn barrels in the first 10 months ending October-17. The sultanate produced 294.9mn barrels of crude oil and condensates during the same period. (Source: China’s Finance Ministry stated that tariffs would drop from an average 17.3% to 7.7% on almost 200 products, including pharmaceuticals, food, health supplements and clothing, which would be effective from December-17. (Source: BBC) Turkey, Iran and Qatar signed a transportation deal, which aimed to boost commodity delivery and promote trade between the three nations. (Source: AA) GCC NEWS    GCC construction sector has around 22,680 active projects, amounting to AED 8.9tn (USD 2.4tn) in November-17, according to GCC Construction Analytics report. Out of the total, urban construction sector stood at 17,912 projects followed by utilities sector (1,701), transport sector (1,423), industrial (1,289) and oil and gas projects (355). (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai Expo 2020 has awarded worth AED 10.8bn (USD 2.9bn) construction contracts and worth AED 411.0mn non-construction contracts in 2017, one of the event organizer stated. (Source: Trade Arabia) Times of Oman) QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s non oil exports rose 8.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY to QAR 1.7bn in October-17. The value of total non-oil exports amounted to QAR 14.9bn during 10 months ending October-17. (Source: Gulf Times)  HE the Minister of Energy and Industry, Dr Mohamed bin Saleh al-Sada stated that Qatar is planning to be a leading LNG player by meeting the market demand. This would be supported by His Highness the Emir’s decision to raise LNG production by about 33.3% to reach 100mn tonnes per annum, which is expected to be acheived by 2024. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Central Bank Governor, Sheikh Abdulla bin Saoud al-Thani, stated that in spite of low global crude oil prices and pessimistic economic environment, Qatar’s economy is expected to expand at the fastest pace in the GCC region in 2017. IMF recently projected that Qatar’s real GDP would grow 3.1% in 2018 as compared to 2.5% in 2017. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar and the United Nations Office at Geneva signed a MoU, which aimed for the renovation and modernisation of Hall 19, as an integrated project. The project is a donation from the State of Qatar. Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority has signed a partnership agreement with DP World and Projects Management Institute to continue their respective roles as co-organizers of the Dubai International Projects Management Forum for the period 2017-2019. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Hotel guests arrivals in Abu Dhabi grew 18.0% YoY in October-17, as 418,883 guests checking into the emirate’s 163 hotels and hotel apartments. The total number of guest accounted to more than 3.9mn during the first 10 months of 2017. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has introduced its Habshan 5 gas processing plant, which would increase the daily production capacity by 12,000 tons of natural gas liquids. (Source: Trade Arabia)  ADNOC has set an indicative price range of AED 2.35 (USD 0.64) to AED 2.95 for an IPO of its unit that could raise as much as USD 2.0bn to become the biggest listing in the UAE since 2007. (Source: Zawya)    Abu Dhabi based real estate firm, Asteco, has been appointed as a leasing agent for The Residence at Saadiyat Beach Residence on Saadiyat Island in Abu Dhabi, which is owned by Tabieah Property Investment. (Source: Trade Arabia) Saudi Arabia's securities regulator, Capital Market Authority, is planning to introduce a reform to ease requirements for foreign institutional investors in the stock market. According to the reforms, minimum value of assets under management has been eased from SAR 3.75bn (USD 1.0bn) to SAR 1.9bn (USD 500.0mn) for an institution to qualify as an investor. (Source: Trade Arabia) Saudi Aramco has inked a MoU with Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, a diversified chemical company, to develop a fully integrated crude oil to chemicals complex in Saudi Arabia amounting (Source: Gulf Times)  The Qatar General Insurance and Reinsurance Company has announced that it has received approval from the Central Bank of Algeria for its 20% equity stake sale in Trust Bank Algeria. In 2016, it had 8% holding, according to Trust Bank’s financial statement for the year. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar General Organisation for Standardisation has received the membership of the Standards and Metrology Institute for the Islamic Countries, the company indicated during the 15th meeting of the Board of Directors and the 12th meeting of its General Assembly. (Source: Gulf Times)  Gulf Organisation for Research and Development has inked an MoU with Kuwait Public Transport Company to establish partnership for Global Sustainability Assessment System related activities. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatari Diar Real Estate Investments Company and VINCI Construction Grands Projects signed an agreement with The Building and Wood Workers' International, a global union federation. The agreement includes all human rights at work, quality of accommodations, fair recruitment and conditions of employment. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar Airways has renewed its partnership agreeemtent with Orbis UK to proviode sponsorship for an additional three years. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 27 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1963 USD/QAR 3.6415 111.5300 EUR/QAR 4.3563 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3367 JPY/QAR 0.0327 USD/CHF 0.9795 GBP/QAR 4.8676 USD/CAD 1.2712 CHF/QAR 3.7177 AUD/USD 0.7617 CAD/QAR 2.8646 NZD/USD 0.6876 AUD/QAR 2.7737 USD/INR 64.2025 INR/QAR 0.0567 USD/TRY 3.9553 TRY/QAR 0.9207 USD/ZAR 14.1585 ZAR/QAR 0.2572 USD/BRL 3.2322 BRL/QAR 1.1266 Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.34 1.47 1.94 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) QAIBOR 2.09 2.16 2.21 2.41 2.96 SAIBOR NA 1.36 1.48 1.82 2.26 EIBOR 0.99 1.16 1.34 1.65 2.35 BMIBOR 1.03 1.30 1.75 2.13 2.75 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Source: Bloomberg 1.93% 2.34% 2.23% 2.14% 2.18% 2.01% 1.82% 2.55% 2.44% 1.33% 0.0% 2 Yrs SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.0% 3.04% 3.32% 3.60% 2.07% 2.24% 2.34% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.39% 2.09% 2.0% 1.76% 2.76% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Years CDS 2.0% 1.0% The USD weakened against a basket of currencies on Friday, with the dollar index settling 0.5% lower at 92.781. The weakness in the USD was largely on the back of speculations that a low inflationary environment would keep the US Fed cautious about further rate hikes in the coming period. The EUR strengthened against the USD, amid increasing confidence about the economic strength of the Eurozone among the investors. Moreover, better than expected German IFO business climate and expectations data also supported the common currency. Also, possibilities of a likely coalition deal of Angela Merkel’s party with Social Democrats also improved optimism for the EUR. The GBP inched higher against the USD, amid positive comments from European policymakers about the Brexit deal. The CAD remained broadly unchanged against the USD, amid strength in the oil prices. 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 3.0% FX Commentary 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Spreads 6M Change US 28.3 UK Germany France 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 3.8 Turkey 210.0 7.3 24.2 1.7 Brazil 172.9 (65.8) 12.0 (4.0) Egypt 359.6 12.8 18.3 (11.2) Abu Dhabi 67.4 26.6 Italy 119.6 (45.1) Bahrain 280.0 57.6 Greece 498.8 (170.5) Dubai 145.2 36.3 Russia 132.8 (15.6) Qatar 108.0 47.9 Japan 32.0 5.3 90.8 (4.0) Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 12:00 Italy Economic Sentiment Nov - 109.1 12:00 Italy Manufacturing Confidence Nov 111.8 111 12:00 Italy Consumer Confidence Index 116.1 18:00 Canada Bloomberg Nanos Confidence 18:00 US New Home Sales 18:00 US 18:30 US Nov 116.5 Nov-24 - 59.5 Oct 625k 667k New Home Sales MoM Oct (6.30%) 18.90% Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Nov 24 27.6 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Hayat Communications NA NA NA 0.1 (30.3) (11.0) Afaq Educational Services Co 1.6 0.8 4.0 0.1 (36.3) (22.7) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 27 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 0.0 0.0 11.2 3.2 6.3 5.9 5.6 0.0 5.0 8.3 2.7 7.6 3.9 7.7 5.5 6.6 4.0 8.0 0.0 13.5 6.5 6.4 7.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 6.3 5.6 4.3 4.8 4.5 3.6 7.7 7.3 4.4 5.7 47.2 3.8 3.2 7.6 5.5 8.9 6.5 0.0 9.7 7.5 4.2 0.0 3.5 3.9 7.4 7.6 6.9 4.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.6 1.8 0.8 1.3 0.7 2.0 0.5 0.7 1.5 1.1 1.6 0.8 1.4 0.8 1.6 2.1 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.4 3.1 0.6 1.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.8 0.5 1.7 1.1 2.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.6 0.5 0.6 1.4 0.7 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.6 1.2 P/E Ratio (x) 10.5 40.4 24.9 7.7 57.4 9.5 12.3 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.5 8.9 8.3 18.5 9.6 5.1 23.5 13.7 37.5 11.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 16.9 9.3 5.3 10.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 21.6 14.6 11.3 13.7 9.6 9.9 17.7 23.7 8.3 17.8 63.7 11.0 20.0 8.3 10.5 45.2 7.5 9.5 14.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.4 11.5 9.2 16.7 11.3 11.7 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.5 0.6 1.3 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 5.4 14.0 0.4 5.6 10.3 2.3 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 5.8 13.1 5.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 0.5 4.3 0.9 14.7 2.0 4.1 5.6 1.9 0.4 1.5 2.2 0.7 4.2 1.8 3.4 0.7 0.2 1.7 1.1 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.9 42.6 8.4 35.5 24.1 17.4 17.0 19.5 8.4 63.1 44.9 71.8 8.6 39.4 62.2 34.1 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 13.8 17.6 113.5 43.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.5 10.4 55.1 11.4 78.5 20.9 32.4 46.7 21.9 19.5 20.4 28.6 69.8 22.8 34.9 47.5 11.2 12.7 30.8 17.3 71.1 5.4 23.5 27.0 15.4 117.8 32.5 27.3 Stock Price (QR) 33.9 26.0 15.1 26.9 31.4 12.0 34.0 9.0 5.5 95.0 48.2 116.0 6.6 52.3 55.0 136.5 25.0 88.0 5.5 5.9 54.0 70.0 7.2 16.0 5.3 92.2 12.6 167.0 27.5 39.2 55.0 10.5 12.7 39.5 47.0 46.4 28.2 7.6 7.1 12.9 83.4 6.7 41.6 13.5 46.1 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4