GCC Daily Market Update - 24 October

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 24 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,565.0 (10.2) 23,274.0 (54.7) 6,067.8 (41.0) 7,524.5 1.2 13,003.1 11.9 5,386.8 14.4 107,303.3 (1,185.4) 21,696.7 239.0 28,305.9 (181.4) 3,380.7 2.1 32,506.7 116.8 (0.4) (0.2) (0.7) 0.0 0.1 0.3 (1.1) 1.1 (0.6) 0.1 0.4 1.8 3.9 1.5 2.1 1.4 1.1 4.3 6.6 2.7 0.9 3.9 14.6 17.8 24.8 5.3 13.3 10.8 37.3 13.5 28.7 8.9 22.1 8,117.4 6,886.3 4,498.7 3,618.2 6,622.6 5,032.9 1,287.7 1,636.0 3,505.7 (40.9) (88.8) 0.4 (25.5) (27.5) (13.2) 3.8 (11.5) (6.1) (0.5) (1.3) 0.0 (0.7) (0.4) (0.3) 0.3 (0.7) (0.2) (2.3) (5.4) 2.3 1.5 (0.9) (2.0) 0.3 (0.1) 2.0 (22.2) (4.5) (1.0) 2.5 15.2 (13.0) 5.5 4.1 20.7 57.4 51.9 3.0 1,277.7 318.8 (0.4) 0.4 0.1 0.3 2.3 (0.7) 0.8 2.6 0.0 0.7 (0.1) 0.6 (0.8) (0.3) 9.2 1.2 (3.2) (19.9) 10.9 28.8 Source: Bloomberg Global US markets ended lower yesterday, sliding from record high levels, as weak earnings data from some of the blue chip companies weighed on investor sentiment. The S&P 500 index fell 0.4%, led by losses in Industrials and Consumer Discretionary shares. The Stoxx Europe 600 index settled 0.2% higher, helped by weakness in EUR. However, Spanish shares inched lower due to a stand-off between Madrid and the Catalan region, limited broad market gains. The UK’s benchmark rose marginally higher, to settle slightly below the record high levels. The Japanese benchmark advanced for the 15th consecutive session, after Shinzo Abe won the snap election held over the weekend. The Hang Seng index declined 0.6%, led by losses in Chinese Banking and local Real Estate shares. GCC Most GCC markets ended lower yesterday. In Saudi Arabia, National Commercial Bank dropped 4.7%, as the lender’s Q3-17 earnings fell short of market expectations. Peer lender, Bank Aljazira fell 0.8%, despite reporting a 41% YoY increase in its earnings. Etihad Etisalat plunged 7.5%, as the company’s Q3-17 loss widened, due to the introduction of finger print system introduced by the regulator. In Dubai, Emaar Properties continued to decline yesterday, after stating that it would float 20% of its stake in its local property development business. The Bahraini benchmark outperformed its peer indices, helped by gains in Banking and Services shares. Qatar The QE index fell 0.5%, after the US Secretary of State indicated that there are little chances that the Saudi-led blockade would be removed smoothly. Domestic institutional and local retail investors were among the net sellers in yesterday’s trading session. Trade turnover rose amidst lower volumes, with Banking, Real Estate and Industrials sectors together accounting for about 86.0% of the total volume. Out of 45 companies listed, 42 exchanged hands, of which 33 declined, 8 advanced and 1 remain unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 12.7 1.2 4.7 42.3 DSM 20 13.1 1.2 4.9 34.2 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.5 1.6 3.5 715.0 UAE (ADX) 16.5 1.3 4.6 21.4 UAE (DFM) 93.0 1.3 3.9 117.3 Kuwait (KSE) 18.0 1.2 5.2 33.6 Oman (MSM) 12.1 1.0 5.2 6.7 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.7 0.8 6.1 1.1 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Ezdan Holding Group Qatar Industrial Manuf Medicare Group Dlala Holding Mazaya Qatar Real Est Top Losers Al Ahli Bank Doha Insurance Co Qatar & Oman Inves Qatar Insurance Co Qatari Investors Group Close Price 9.4 41.0 69.0 17.0 8.8 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 4.5 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.2 (37.5) (7.9) 9.7 (20.9) (35.9) (44.0) 1,355.0 12.2 (6.6) 1.3 9.3 (11.6) 4.2 29.4 (22.1) 6.1 25.9 (32.0) 251.9 56.9 29.1 14.0 7.6 45.9 29.6 (2.4) (1.0) (0.4) (1.5) (0.9) (7.7) (6.6) (4.5) (3.2) (3.0) (21.7) (23.0) (23.5) (37.8) (49.4) (22.7) (26.3) (28.0) (38.8) (43.3) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 1.0 9.0 0.0 8.2 5.5 21.7 85.5 19.3 39.2 14.7 Qatar DSM Index 10,000 15.0 8,117.4 9,500 10.0 9,000 5.0 8,500 8,000 27/Jul 0.0 10/Aug 24/Aug 7/Sep Index Volume (mn) 21/Sep 5/Oct 19/Oct Index Value Closing Level 2,552.0 4,944.7 2,508.4 3,044.3 1,605.0 1,026.3 1,691.1 1D Change (%) (0.4) (0.6) (0.5) (3.0) 2.5 (0.7) (1.3) Buy (%) 32.7 10.8 43.5 6.6 49.9 56.5 Sell (%) 39.5 43.9 83.4 7.7 9.0 16.7 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 24 , 2017 increases in sales value, sales volume and improvements to average selling prices. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS  US President Donald Trump dismissed the possibility of limiting popular 401(k) retirement savings plans after a report last week said Republicans might consider capping such pre-tax contributions in order to generate more revenue. (Source: Reuters)   Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets will remain oversupplied into the 2020s due to a surge in production, although soaring demand especially from China may tighten the market earlier than expected, the IEA said. (Source: Reuters)  Bahrain has managed to strike a balance between revenues and expenditure despite plummeting oil prices, said Deputy Prime Minister Shaikh Khalid bin Abdulla Al-Khalifa. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Germany’s growth is likely to hold up at a high level in Q3-17 driven by outstanding industrial orders despite construction activity leveling off and dipping private consumption, the Bundesbank said in a monthly report. (Source: Reuters) About 40.0% of construction work on Bahrain International Airport’s USD 1.1bn modernization project has been completed and is on track for opening by Q3-19. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain-based Investcorp has completed its first European real estate portfolio following the acquisition of seven additional assets. Investcorp’s European real estate investment exceeded USD 100.0mn.   Japan’s Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party and a small coalition partner together secured at least 313 seats in the 465-member lower house, passing the 310-barrier for a two-thirds majority in snap elections. (Source: Chicago Tribune) Bank of Japan said that Japanese banks lag behind their global counterparts in boosting profitability due to competition for dwindling lending opportunities in a shrinking market. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS   UAE Vice President has launched the flagship Dubai Internet of Things (IoT) Strategy, and the Data Wealth initiative to safeguard the emirate’s digital wealth and award Dubai Digital Certificates to outstanding government and private entities. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai Financial Market (DFM) and Nasdaq Dubai have signed a licence agreement under which futures contracts linked with the DFM General Index (DFMGI) will be traded on Nasdaq Dubai’s equity futures market. Trading of DFMGI futures is expected to begin later this year, subject to regulatory approval. (Source: Trade Arabia) The Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB) has announced plans to set up a dedicated Fintech unit to ensure that best services are provided to individual and corporate customers in the financial sector. (Source: Trade Arabia) (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman based Al Namaa Poultry will float major tenders for building a poultry project worth OMR 100.0mn (USD 259.7mn) after six months. Construction work will take 15 months and the project is expected to start operations in 2019. (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS  Turkey’s ambassador to Qatar, Fikret Ozer, said that plans were in the pipeline for the establishment of Turkish manufacturing facilities in Qatar to help in the production of more locally-made products. (Source: Gulf Times)  Trade volume between Qatar and Turkey is expected to increase further as a new land route through Iran will facilitate the transportation of goods between the two countries, Turkey’s ambassador to Qatar said. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Emir of Qatar issued Law No. 19 of 2017 amending some provisions of Law No. 4 of 2008 on real estate leasing. Leases shall now be concluded in writing, shall include the name of the lessor, the tenant, their nationalities, addresses, legal representative, duration of the lease, amount of the rent and payment means and the purpose of the lease in addition to all agreed terms. (Source: Gulf Times)  Dubai based Deyaar has signed a five-year partnership agreement with technology major Huawei to provide smart home applications and network facilities at its key projects in Dubai. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) has appointed Honeywell to help deliver a smart energy project in the Middle East, which will see Honeywell provide a further 150,000 smart meters in addition to the 250,000 it has already deployed across Dubai. (Source:  The Ministry of Economy and Commerce (MEC) announced Qatar’s accession to the Rome Convention on the Protection of Performers, Producers of Phonograms and Broadcasting Organizations (1961), with effect from 23rd September-17. (Source: Gulf Times) Trade Arabia)  Nebras Power, Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) and Pembangkitan Jawa-Bali (PJB) have signed a heads of agreement (HoA) for developing an 800MW power plant along with a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) and sourcing of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) at Medan, Sumatra, Indonesia. (Source: Gulf Times)  Manateq’s health, safety and environment management (HSEM) in its Special Economic Zones and Logistics Parks has been awarded ISO 14001:2015 and BS OHSAS 18001:2007. (Source: Gulf Times)  Industries Qatar (IQ) net profit declined 11.1% YoY to QAR 2.4bn in 9M-17 led by marginally reduced sales volumes, depressed fertilizer prices, and tightened operating margins. (Source: Gulf Times)  Saudi Aramco’s IPO will take place in H2-18 and the listing venue will be revealed in due course, the company’s CEO said. The company is preparing to list about 5.0% of its shares in local and international stock markets. (Source: Reuters) QIIB net profit rose 5.1% YoY to QAR 700.0mn in Q3-17. Total assets jumped 17.5% YoY to QAR 50.6bn while total revenues increased 10.0% YoY to QAR 1.4bn. (Source: Gulf Times)  Saudi based United Electronics Company (eXtra) has been signed as a strategic partner for Canon Office Personal Products (OPP) in Saudi Arabia by Canon Middle East. (Source: Trade Arabia) Doha Bank net profit rose by 3.0% YoY to QAR 1.1bn in 9M-17. Net operating income increased by 6.0% to QAR 2.2bn while total assets expanded by more than 9.0% to QAR 92.4bn. (Source: Gulf Times)  International Bank of Qatar (IBQ) net profit jumped 16.0% YoY to QAR 432.0mn in Q3-17. Total operating income rose 13.0% on the back of core underlying transactions emanating from strong client franchise.  Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) net profit rose 2.0% YoY to AED 3.2bn (USD 871.2mn) for 9M-17. Total net interest income and Islamic financing income was up 8.0% to AED 5.0bn and it maintained its return on average equity (ROAE) of 15.0%. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB) Group net profit rose by 13.0% YoY for 9M-17 to AED 1.7bn (USD 460.1mn). Revenues increased by 4.0% to AED 4.2bn driven by growth in fees, FX and investment income. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Sharjah real estate trade value increased by 37.2% YoY to AED 8.2bn (USD 2.2bn) in Q3-17. Mortgage transactions reached 894, including 482 transactions valued at AED 3.4bn (USD 925.0mn). (Source: Trade Arabia)    Saudi Arabia based Middle East Paper Co.’s (Mepco), net profit rose by 22.0% QoQ to SAR 22.2mn (USD 5.9mn) in Q3-17 driven mainly by (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 24 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1779 USD/QAR 3.6415 113.4300 EUR/QAR 4.2893 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3228 JPY/QAR 0.0321 USD/CHF 0.9850 GBP/QAR 4.8170 USD/CAD 1.2647 CHF/QAR 3.6970 AUD/USD 0.7807 CAD/QAR 2.8793 NZD/USD 0.6967 AUD/QAR 2.8429 USD/INR 64.5163 INR/QAR 0.0564 USD/TRY 3.7167 TRY/QAR 0.9798 USD/ZAR 13.7077 ZAR/QAR 0.2657 USD/BRL 3.2354 BRL/QAR 1.1255 FX Commentary The USD started the week on a positive note, with the dollar index ending 0.1% at 93.829. Renewed optimism of tax reforms, increased speculations of a hawkish stance by US Fed in the next policy meeting and higher treasury yields supported the greenback. The EUR inched lower against the USD, amid increasing unrest in the Catalan region in Spain. The EUR investors are now awaiting the outcome of the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, where it might alter its monetary stance. The JPY weakened against the USD, dropping to its three month low levels, after Shinzo Abe won the elections, reinforcing optimism that the nation would stick to its ultra-loose policy. The CAD declined against the USD, following the release of broadly in line Canadian wholesale sales data. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.24 1.36 1.83 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.18) 2.03 2.14 2.26 2.50 2.97 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.35 1.46 1.79 2.24 2.0% EIBOR 1.02 1.12 1.32 1.57 2.21 BMIBOR 1.00 1.25 1.75 2.05 2.73 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 1.57% 2 Yrs US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 28.3 UK Germany France 2.0% 1.80% 1.0% 1.08% 2.34% 1.60% 1.43% 1.30% 2.59% 1.95% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 3.52% 2.00% 2.22% 2.37% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Source: Bloomberg 2.20% 3.27% 4.38% 2.89% 0.0% Source: Bloomberg 2.08% 3.03% 2.00% Qatar Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS 30 Yrs Spread 6M Change 0.5 Turkey 177.2 (49.5) 26.4 3.8 Brazil 172.9 (46.9) 13.9 (5.4) Egypt 341.7 (13.5) 23.3 (11.9) Abu Dhabi 62.6 21.8 Italy 136.7 (30.8) Bahrain 243.9 14.0 Greece 525.5 (399.3) Dubai 132.2 19.7 Russia 131.2 (28.3) Qatar 103.3 43.4 Japan 36.2 9.3 85.7 (2.7) Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 09:45 France Manufacturing Confidence Period Survey Oct 110 10:00 France 10:30 Prior 110 Markit France Manufacturing PMI Oct P 56 56.1 Germany Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct P 60 60.6 11:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct P 57.8 58.1 16:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Oct P 53.5 53.1 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) Industries Qatar NA NA NA 747.8 1.6 9.7 Doha Bank NA NA NA 333.1 7.2 (5.1) Qatar International Islamic NA NA NA 234.9 5.2 2.7 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Dev. NA NA NA 4.2 (68.5) (50.2) Islamic Holding Group NA NA NA (0.6) NA 6.1 Saudi Arabian Fertilizer Co NA NA NA 188.4 3.8 (7.8) Etihad Etisalat Co Natl Bank Of Ras Al-Khaimah QoQ (%) NA NA NA (174.5) 4.0 (8.0) 1,063.7 3.0 0.4 223.5 107.1 (0.5) NA NA NA 11.5 (11.3) 10.5 National Mobile Telecom Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 24 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 19th October 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.2 0.0 0.0 9.1 2.7 6.3 5.6 4.7 0.0 5.0 8.0 2.6 6.7 3.7 5.9 4.4 6.2 4.0 6.5 0.0 10.2 5.6 6.3 6.2 8.1 5.3 0.0 4.3 4.7 4.2 3.2 7.5 6.4 4.6 1.5 1.3 18.3 10.7 27.3 8.7 8.3 5.5 0.0 9.4 6.6 4.1 0.0 3.3 3.6 6.5 6.4 6.0 4.5 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.6 2.0 0.8 1.6 0.7 2.1 0.5 0.7 1.5 1.4 1.7 0.8 1.4 1.1 2.0 2.2 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.6 3.5 0.6 1.4 0.6 1.0 0.7 1.7 1.1 2.4 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.2 P/E Ratio (x) 9.8 41.2 27.9 8.0 54.2 10.1 12.9 M) (‫)س‬ M) (‫)س‬ 9.5 9.4 8.8 21.4 10.0 6.4 29.5 14.5 59.8 13.7 M) (‫)س‬ 10.6 10.8 5.5 11.5 10.5 (H) ( ) 16.5 21.9 16.4 12.5 15.4 9.1 11.4 17.5 69.9 27.6 2.1 7.1 3.0 5.3 8.9 11.9 36.2 8.2 10.5 15.1 M) (‫)س‬ 21.1 12.3 9.8 14.8 11.6 11.8 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.4 0.7 1.2 2.8 M) (‫)س‬ M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 5.3 14.0 0.4 5.6 10.6 2.3 10.0 0.4 7.2 M) (‫)س‬ 0.7 5.8 12.9 5.1 0.7 -0.4 0.4 4.3 0.8 14.2 2.0 4.4 5.6 2.1 0.6 1.7 3.4 2.0 4.3 2.8 3.4 0.8 0.2 1.6 1.1 5.7 M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.6 3.7 2.1 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.9 42.6 8.4 34.2 24.3 16.9 17.3 19.9 8.7 63.1 36.7 71.8 9.2 39.0 59.5 34.1 65.5 20.7 68.4 6.2 14.0 17.6 111.0 43.1 12.3 19.5 10.3 53.9 11.1 73.6 20.9 31.6 46.7 23.8 20.2 20.8 29.4 70.7 21.9 35.6 46.7 11.2 12.7 30.3 17.1 69.7 5.4 23.1 26.1 15.0 118.6 32.2 27.6 Stock Price (QR) 31.5 26.5 16.9 27.4 37.5 11.9 35.7 10.7 6.4 94.5 50.0 123.3 7.5 67.4 69.0 144.5 25.0 98.8 6.9 7.8 62.3 71.0 7.5 18.7 7.1 94.0 12.7 178.0 31.0 40.2 63.0 40.8 47.0 7.1 14.0 12.8 30.2 9.1 8.6 13.3 85.9 7.4 43.9 15.3 55.0 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4