Turkey: Main Economic Developments - 25 October

Transcription

1. Main Economic Developments October 25 , 2017 Research and Monetary Policy Department Daily data are updated every Thursday (previous office day if it is a holiday). Other data are updated on the announcement day at 16.00
2. Contents Inflation Developments p . 3-13 International Developments p.14-30 Labor Market Developments p.31-36 Balance of Payments Developments p.37-50 Public Finance Developments p.51-57 Financial Intermediation and Loans Developments p.58-73 Financial Markets Developments p.74-84 Economic Activity Developments p.85-101 2
3. Inflation Developments 3
4. CPI and Special CPI Indicators (Annual Percentage Change) 14 CPI B C 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Source: TURKSTAT. Last Observation: September 2017. 4
5. CPI and Subgroups (Annual Percentage Change) 35 Services Core goods Food Energy 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 Source: TURKSTAT. Food: Food and alcoholic beverages. Core goods: Goods excluding food, energy, alcoholic beverages , tobacco and gold Last Observation: September 2017. 5
6. Services Inflation (Annual Percentage Change) 24 Other Communication Transport Restaurants and hotels Rent 24 19 19 14 14 9 9 4 4 -1 -1 -6 -6 Source: TURKSTAT. Last Observation: September 2017. 6
7. Inflation Trend Main Inflation Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Change, 3-Month Average, Annualized) B C 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Last Observation: September 2017. 7
8. Inflation Trend Services Prices (Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Change, 3-Month Average, Annualized) 16 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Last Observation: September 2017. 8
9. Inflation Trend Core Goods Prices (Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Change, 3-Month Average, Annualized) 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Core goods: Goods excluding food, energy, alcoholic beverages , tobacco and gold Last Observation: September 2017. 9
10. Inflation Trend Diffusion Index (Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Average) CPI B 0,6 0,6 0,5 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Diffusion index is calculated as the ratio of the number of items with increasing prices minus the number of items with decreasing prices to total number of items within a given month. Last Observation: September 2017. 10
11. Contribution to Annual Inflation (Percentage Points) 14 Energy Services Core goods Food Alcoholic bev. tobacoo and gold 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Food: Food and alcoholic beverages. Core goods: Goods excluding food, energy, alcoholic beverages , tobacco and gold Last Observation: September 2017. 11
12. Domestic PPI (Annual Percentage Change) 25 Domestic PPI Manufacturing Industry Prices 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 Source: TURKSTAT. Last Observation: September 2017. 12
13. Inflation Expectations (Annual Percentage Change) 10 24 Months 12 Months 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 Source: CBRT Last Observation: October 2017. 13
14. International Developments 14
15. Global Inflation (Annual Percentage Change) 10 Advanced Countries Developing Countries 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 Advanced Countries: USA, Euro Area, Japan, UK, Canada, S.Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Israel. Developing Countries: China, Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, S.Africa, Argentina, Thailand, Czechia, Colombia, Hungary, Romania, Philippines, Ukraine, Vietnam, Chile, Peru, Egypt, Morocco. Source: Bloomberg, CBRT. Last Observation: September 2017. 15
16. Core Inflation (Annual Percentage Change) Developing Countries Advanced Countries 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 Advanced Countries: USA, Euro Area, Japan, UK, Canada, S.Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Israel. Developing Countries: China, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, S.Africa, Thailand, Czechia, Colombia, Hungary, Romania, Chile, Peru. Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, CBRT. Last Observation: September 2017. 16
17. Global Growth (Annual Percentage Change) 10 Advanced Countries Developing Countries Developing Countries excluding China and India 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 Advanced Countries: USA, Euro Area, Japan, UK, Canada, S.Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Israel. Developing Countries: China, Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, S.Africa, Argentina, Thailand, Malaysia, Czechia, Colombia, Hungary, Romania, Philippines, Ukraine, Chile, Peru, Morocco. Source: Bloomberg, CBRT. Last Observation: 2017 Q2 17
18. Global Policy Rates (Percent) Advanced Countries 14 Developing Countries 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Advanced Countries: USA, Euro Area, Japan, UK, Canada, S.Korea, Australia, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Hong Kong, Israel, New Zealand. Developing Countries: Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, S.Africa, Thailand, Czechia, Colombia, Hungary, Romania, Philippines. Source: Bloomberg, CBRT. Last Observation: September 2017. 18
19. Markit Global PMI Indices 70 Manufacturing Services 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 Source : Markit. Last Observation: September 2017. 19
20. US House Prices (January 2005 = 100) (Seasonally Adjusted) 130 Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (USA nationwide) 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 Source: Bloomberg. Last Observation: July 2017. 20