GCC Daily Market Update - 24 August

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 24 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,444.0 21,812.1 5,851.8 7,382.7 12,174.3 5,115.4 108,952.7 19,434.6 27,401.7 3,287.7 31,568.0 (8.5) (87.8) (21.6) 0.9 (55.0) (16.5) 358.2 50.8 NA (2.5) 276.2 (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) 0.0 (0.5) (0.3) 0.3 0.3 NA (0.1) 0.9 (1.1) (0.4) (0.5) 0.1 0.5 0.4 1.3 (2.5) 0.3 0.4 (2.9) 9.2 10.4 20.3 3.4 6.0 5.2 39.4 1.7 24.5 5.9 18.6 9,053.6 7,263.8 4,487.4 3,624.9 6,922.5 4,955.3 1,305.3 1,677.1 3,332.8 (11.7) 10.2 13.3 13.6 (9.5) (17.0) (2.4) 2.3 (5.0) (0.1) 0.1 0.3 0.4 (0.1) (0.3) (0.2) 0.1 (0.2) (3.7) 2.4 (1.7) (0.2) 1.0 (1.4) (1.7) 0.1 (0.3) (13.3) 0.7 (1.3) 2.7 20.4 (14.3) 6.9 6.7 14.7 52.6 48.4 2.9 1,288.9 298.1 0.7 0.8 (0.0) 3.8 (0.7) 1.4 1.6 (0.4) 0.3 (0.2) (0.1) (3.5) 4.6 1.8 3.6 (7.4) (9.9) (21.5) 11.9 19.6 Global Equity markets across the Atlantic inched lower, as comments from the US President to shut down the government in an effort to build a wall at the Mexican border created risk averseness among market participants. In US the risk-off mode was evident as investors shunned cyclical sectors like Consumer Discretionary and Energy in favor of defensive stocks like Utilities, leading to net losses in S&P 500 index. The Stoxx Europe 600 index inched 0.5% lower, as EUR received a boost from the recent batch of encouraging economic data from Eurozone. UK’s FTSE 100 index eked out a marginal gain, helped by advances in Mining stocks. In Asia, trading was suspended in Hong Kong due to extreme climatic conditions. The Nikkei index in Japan climbed, helped by weakness in JPY. GCC GCC markets traded mixed yesterday. In Saudi Arabia, small and mid-cap stocks were among the notable gainers, which provided support to the benchmark. Saudi Indian Co for Cooperative Insurance rose 1.6%, after receiving temporary approvals from the central bank to sell some of its professional liability insurance policies. Dubai’s DFM index climbed 0.4%, driven by Real Estate shares. Omani benchmark underperformed its peer indices, on account of increased bearish bets in Services & Insurance and Industrial shares. Qatar QE Index closed 0.1% lower with Real Estate stocks leading decliners, amidst a 1.8% dip in Ezdan Holdings. Improving oil prices did little to aid the index. A net sell-off by Qatari investors was partially offset by increased buying interest by foreign investors. Telecom stocks were most actively traded, with the sector accounting for 52.7% of the total volumes, followed by Bank stocks, which accounted for 17.6% of the trades. Out of 45 stocks listed, 41 exchanged hands, of which 14 advanced, 24 declined and 3 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.9 1.3 4.2 51.2 DSM 20 15.6 1.5 3.8 43.1 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.6 1.7 3.3 861.1 UAE (ADX) 16.5 1.3 4.6 16.2 UAE (DFM) 24.0 1.3 3.9 49.0 Kuwait (KSE) 18.3 1.2 5.3 46.2 Oman (MSM) 11.5 1.0 5.5 2.9 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.7 0.8 6.0 1.3 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Mannai Corporation Islamic Holding Group Qatar General Insur Qatar Insurance Co Salam Intl Investment Top Losers Doha Insurance Co National Leasing Qatar Elect. & Water Qatar Intl Islamic Ezdan Holding Group Close Price 78.5 48.5 34.0 68.1 8.8 3.9 1.8 1.0 1.2 0.1 5.2 3.9 3.0 1.8 1.2 (1.9) (20.5) (27.7) (7.6) (20.8) (8.7) (27.6) (30.5) (13.0) (26.0) 0.3 137.3 0.1 14.9 16.7 14.0 13.0 190.0 55.2 11.2 (0.4) (0.3) (3.8) (1.1) (0.2) (2.7) (2.3) (2.0) (2.0) (1.8) (23.1) (15.1) (16.3) (12.1) (25.9) (32.5) (29.2) (16.2) (18.1) (42.6) 6.5 8.2 69.0 NA 82.9 13.4 57.9 10.4 140.2 14.4 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 7.4 71.1 17.2 19.5 11.8 Qatar DSM Index 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 28/May 30.0 20.0 10.0 9,053.6 0.0 11/Jun 25/Jun 9/Jul Index Volume (mn) 23/Jul 6/Aug 20/Aug Index Value Closing Level 2,799.0 5,365.7 2,738.7 4,041.2 1,863.4 1,100.0 1,923.9 1D Change (%) (0.3) 1.2 (0.4) 1.7 (1.2) 0.6 (0.6) Buy (%) 55.2 22.4 77.6 6.0 16.4 22.4 Sell (%) 63.9 14.9 78.8 5.8 15.4 21.2 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 24 , 2017 new King Abdul Aziz Airport. It will cover an area of 600,000 sq.m. GLOBAL NEWS (Source: Trade Arabia)  US new home sales declined 9.4% MoM in July-17 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 571,000 units, the lowest level since December-16. It declined 8.9% YoY in July-17. (Source: Reuters)  Bahrain’s medical insurance grew by 19.0% YoY to BHD 62.1mn in 2016. The growth was driven by general improvement in insurance business. (Source: Trade Arabia)  US Mortgage applications fell 0.5% over the week ending 18th August -17, after edging up 0.1% in the previous period. Applications to purchase a home fell 1.5% while refinance applications went up 0.3%.  Bahrain’s Judicial Committee for the Settlement of Stalled Real Estate Projects has declared that the sale of Amwaj Gateway development project would be through public auction and it will be organized and managed by real estate consultant, Cluttons and public auction specialist, Mazad. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain-based, Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) Line 6 Expansion Project has achieved 2.1mn safe man-hours without lost time injury (LTI) on 31st July-17. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Chinese Association for Chemicals which is planning to build a second major refinery in Duqm with a processing capacity of 230,000 bpd is negotiating for sources of crude from GCC countries for feeding the refinery, chairman of Oman Wanfang, master developer of China Oman Industrial Park said. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait’s current account surplus decreased to KWD 300.0mn (USD 1.98bn) in Q1-17 as compared to KWD 600.0mn in Q4-16 driven by weakening in the goods balance, decline in investment income and a rebound in net service outflows, according to the National Bank of Kuwait data. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait introduced new electricity and water rates for the investment sector which would be 5.0 fils (USD 0.016) per kWh and KWD 2.0 (USD 6.6) per 1,000 imperial gallons of water respectively, according to Ministry of Electricity and Water. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait and China had inked a number of agreements in the fields of housing and infrastructure which also included the establishment of a Chinese cultural centre in Kuwait following talks between Kuwaiti Foreign Minister and Chinese Vice Premier. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait Authority for Partnership Project awarded the Kabd Municipal Solid waste treatment project to consortium led by French based Constructions Industrielles de La Mediterranee (CNIM) for a period of 25 years in addition to 44 months for designing and construction. The project will includes construction of a solid waste treatment plant with a capacity of 3,275 tons per day. (Source: Trade Arabia) (Source: Reuters)    US top ‘AAA’ long-term debt rating will be in danger if lawmakers do not raise borrowing limits in a timely fashion, ratings agency Fitch warned. (Source: Reuters) ECB President Draghi said that central banks need to give up their defense of obsolete approaches, however also acknowledged gaps in knowledge of how new policies would work in the context of robust growth accompanied by low inflation. (Source: Reuters) Direct investment from EU countries to Turkey rose by 61.0% YoY in the H1-17. Investment from the 28 EU states leapt to USD 2.7bn between January-17 and June-17 driven by government incentives offered to foreign investors. (Source: AA) GCC NEWS   GCC corporate earnings are expected to grow by 8.1% for the full year 2017 based on “stabilising oil prices and resilience in margins”, Kuwait Financial Centre (Markaz) said in a report. In H1-17, GCC corporates earnings declined 1.0% YoY. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait were three countries to put up positive earnings performance growing by 7.0%, 6.0% and 2.0% respectively. (Source: Gulf Times) UAE’s logistic services sector is expected to achieve a growth rate of 4.8% annually till 2021 and the volume of transferred cargoes through Dubai International Airport and Abu Dhabi International Airport in 2017 is expected to rise by 5.0% YoY and 12.0% YoY respectively in 2017, according to Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry report. (Source: Mubasher)  UAE excise tax law will be effective from 1st October-17 and will impact all excise goods consumed within the country, including all the country's free zones and ports goods, according to Ministry of Finance. (Source: Trade Arabia)    The blueprint for Dubai Food Park has been unveiled by the Ruler of Dubai. The food park will cost USD 1.5bn and would be built on an area of 48.0 mn sq.m, making Dubai a leading regional hub for food trade, import, export and re-export of foodstuffs. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai based developer Damac International property’s subsidiary, Nine Elms Property has awarded worth USD 307.8mn (GBP 240.0mn) construction contract for its 50-floor Aykon London One tower to Australian contractor, Multiplex. (Source: Global Construction)  Qatar's non-oil exports reached QAR 1.3bn in July-17, recording an increase of 67.0% MoM. The majority of the non-oil goods from Qatar were shipped off to Europe, GCC and Asia. Private companies exported goods worth QAR 511.7mn to Europe, which is 38.5% of the total nonoil exports. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar Central Securities Depository (QCSD) recorded a significant increase in the activities of registered shareholders in July-17, according to the company's monthly report. The major driver of the activity was the addition of private subscription shares to the existing shareholders of Doha Bank, where the new capital of QAR 3.1bn was distributed over 310.5mn shares. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Philippine based medical organization, MMG Hospital group’s CEO’s are planning to sign an MoU with a local business group in Qatar for a medical facility project in Doha. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatargas said that its operations group has completed two years and 30.0mn man-hours without a lost time injury (LTI) in the company's onshore and offshore assets. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Investment Holding Group has approved the distribution of cash dividends to shareholders at a rate of 3.0% for 2016 of the nominal value of the share equivalent to 30 dirhams per share. (Source: Gulf Times) Abu Dhabi's non-oil trade with four GCC states Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait amounted to AED 11.3bn (USD 3.1bn) for the period Jan-17 to May-17. The four states claimed 15.5% of the total Abu Dhabi’s global trade which stood at AED 73.0bn for the same period. (Source: Trade Arabia)  QATAR NEWS Abu Dhabi based, NMC Health, reported a rise in its revenue by 34.0% YoY to USD 775.2mn and an increase of 47.3% YoY in EBITDA to USD 170.7mn in H1-17. The Healthcare business segment contributed 86.9% of the total EBITDA in H1-17 as compared to 84.7% in H1-16. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Saudi Arabia's Cabinet has given the approval to the Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, or his deputy, to discuss the terms of the MoU between Saudi Arabia and China on the establishment of a joint investment fund. (Source: Trade Arabia) Saudi Arabia’s Makkah city governor inked a contract for the project which aimed to give facelift to the entrance to Jeddah city from the 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 24 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1837 USD/QAR 3.6415 109.0400 EUR/QAR 4.3104 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2830 JPY/QAR 0.0334 USD/CHF 0.9652 GBP/QAR 4.6720 USD/CAD 1.2554 CHF/QAR 3.7728 AUD/USD 0.7904 CAD/QAR 2.9007 NZD/USD 0.7225 AUD/QAR 2.8782 USD/INR 63.6138 INR/QAR 0.0572 USD/TRY 3.4802 TRY/QAR 1.0463 USD/ZAR 13.1643 ZAR/QAR 0.2766 USD/BRL 3.1424 BRL/QAR 1.1588 FX Commentary The dollar fell on Wednesday in a generally risk-averse market after US President Donald Trump suggested that a shutdown of the government was possible if he does not get funding from the Congress to build a wall on the US-Mexico border. His threats to terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement, after three-way talks failed to bridge deep differences, further pressured the greenback. EUR gained against the USD after German and French PMI data showed both countries registering strong private-sector growth in August-17. GBP closed lower against both, EUR and USD, after the UK government moved forward the formal discussions on leaving the European Union and outlined potential compromises over some of the issues likely to block progress this year. CAD came under pressure after comments from US president on NAFTA. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.24 1.32 1.73 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.16) 1.89 2.04 2.23 2.41 2.91 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.35 1.46 1.80 2.24 2.0% EIBOR 0.96 1.05 1.31 1.54 2.13 BMIBOR 1.00 1.25 1.75 1.98 2.73 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.11% 1.32% 0.0% 2 Yrs 2.85% 3.07% 3.30% 1.76% 2.00% 2.18% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Qatar 4.36% 2.75% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 29.9 1.6 Turkey 175.1 (63.9) UK 20.6 (2.0) Brazil 201.8 (22.6) Germany 15.0 (9.1) Egypt 364.4 7.1 France 22.7 (48.8) Abu Dhabi 57.8 8.2 Italy 150.1 (38.1) Bahrain 239.6 6.4 Greece 593.0 (520.6) Dubai 120.0 (5.4) Russia 147.8 (25.3) Qatar 96.2 (21.6) Japan 30.7 5.6 Saudi Arabia 92.5 4.2 2.0% 1.56% 1.95% 1.81% 1.0% 1.26% 0.99% 1.15% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 2.12% 1.40% 2.41% 1.70% 0.0% 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 08:00 Japan Leading Index CI Period Survey Prior Jun F - 106.3 09:45 France Manufacturing Confidence 11:30 UK UK Finance Loans for Housing Aug 108 109 Jul - 40,200 11:30 UK 11:30 UK GDP QoQ Q2 P 0.30% 0.30% GDP YoY Q2 P 1.70% 11:30 UK Index of Services 3M/3M 1.70% Jun 0.50% 15:30 US 0.40% Initial Jobless Claims Aug-19th 238k 232k 1950k 1953k - 419.9b 15:30 US Continuing Claims Aug-12th 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Aug-18th 16:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Aug-20th - 52.1 17:00 US Existing Home Sales Jul 5.55m 5.52m 17:00 US Existing Home Sales MoM Jul 0.50% (1.80%) 02:30 Japan Natl CPI YoY Jul 0.40% 0.40% 02:30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Jul 0.50% 0.40% 02:30 Japan Tokyo CPI YoY Aug 0.30% 0.10% 02:30 Japan Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY Aug 0.30% 0.20% 02:50 Japan PPI Services YoY Jul 0.80% 0.80% Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 24 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.2 0.0 0.0 8.2 2.1 6.0 5.0 3.9 0.0 4.9 7.3 2.4 6.0 3.4 5.1 4.1 5.9 4.0 6.1 0.0 9.1 5.5 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.1 0.0 4.3 4.6 4.0 2.2 7.1 5.4 4.3 3.9 4.3 1.9 4.4 6.1 2.5 7.6 4.5 0.0 8.0 5.6 3.9 0.0 3.1 3.4 5.9 5.4 5.4 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.7 2.0 0.9 2.0 0.8 2.5 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.5 2.0 0.9 1.6 1.3 2.1 2.3 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.6 4.0 0.7 1.5 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.7 1.2 2.6 2.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.7 2.3 0.5 2.6 1.5 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.8 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 9.4 67.2 30.5 8.9 70.1 10.7 14.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.1 10.4 9.7 23.7 11.1 7.4 30.5 15.2 59.8 14.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.9 11.4 5.8 12.4 14.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 17.9 21.9 16.9 13.4 21.1 9.8 11.2 18.3 26.5 8.2 20.2 17.2 13.5 18.7 9.8 14.6 42.7 9.6 12.4 15.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.1 13.0 10.9 17.3 13.0 13.4 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.4 0.6 3.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.6 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.4 10.6 2.4 10.0 0.4 7.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.7 5.6 12.9 5.1 0.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 4.3 0.8 14.2 2.2 4.4 6.0 2.1 0.6 1.7 3.4 2.0 4.3 2.8 3.4 0.8 0.2 1.6 1.1 5.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 3.6 1.6 3.7 2.1 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 42.3 8.7 34.2 24.3 16.9 16.3 19.9 8.7 60.6 36.7 68.1 9.2 37.6 59.5 34.1 65.5 20.7 68.4 6.2 14.0 16.2 111.0 43.0 12.3 19.5 10.3 53.9 11.1 73.6 20.6 31.6 45.7 23.8 20.2 20.8 29.4 70.7 21.9 35.6 46.7 11.2 12.7 30.3 17.1 69.7 5.5 23.2 26.1 15.0 118.6 32.2 27.2 Stock Price (QR) 30.0 29.9 17.7 30.4 48.5 12.6 40.0 13.0 7.1 97.2 55.2 134.0 8.3 78.5 72.7 151.6 25.0 104.9 8.3 8.8 64.2 75.0 10.5 19.7 7.7 93.9 13.1 190.0 46.0 43.3 66.9 15.5 14.0 68.1 34.0 57.3 33.1 11.2 10.1 15.7 89.5 8.7 46.5 17.0 64.4 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ - Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4