GCC Daily Market Update - 23 August

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 23 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,452.5 21,899.9 5,873.3 7,381.7 12,229.3 5,131.9 108,594.5 19,383.8 27,401.7 3,290.2 31,291.9 24.1 196.1 86.8 62.9 163.4 44.3 (20.4) (9.3) 247.0 3.3 33.0 1.0 0.9 1.5 0.9 1.4 0.9 (0.0) (0.1) 0.9 0.1 0.1 (0.7) 0.0 (0.1) 0.1 0.9 0.7 1.0 (2.7) 0.3 0.5 (3.8) 9.5 10.8 20.8 3.3 6.5 5.5 39.0 1.4 24.5 6.0 17.5 9,065.3 7,253.5 4,474.1 3,611.2 6,932.0 4,972.3 1,307.7 1,674.8 3,337.8 0.2 28.1 (20.8) 16.1 18.7 28.5 (2.1) 2.7 26.4 0.0 0.4 (0.5) 0.5 0.3 0.6 (0.2) 0.2 0.8 (3.6) 2.2 (2.0) (0.6) 1.2 (1.0) (1.5) (0.0) (0.1) (13.1) 0.6 (1.6) 2.3 20.6 (14.0) 7.1 6.6 14.9 51.9 47.6 2.9 1,285.1 298.7 0.2 0.3 (0.0) (5.7) 0.7 0.4 0.6 (0.8) (0.4) 0.2 (1.8) (4.9) 5.3 1.5 3.0 (9.0) (11.2) (21.0) 11.6 18.8 Source: Bloomberg Global Bargain hunting dominated trade in the US markets yesterday, with some of the biggest gainers being stocks that were hit hard in recent sessions, including shares of Technology, brick-and-mortar retailers and semiconductor companies. Strong advances in the tech counter, aided Nasdaq to outperform its peer indices. Growing speculation over Trump administration’s increased efforts to overhaul tax code, further improved sentiments. A boost in commodity prices benefitted European and Asian indices. The Stoxx Europe 600 index edged 0.8% higher, snapping its threeday losing streak, further aided by weakness in the EUR. In UK, Supermarket stocks found support after a leading consumer intelligence institute stated that four of the UK’s largest retailers have reported growth in sales in the 12 weeks ending August 13th. In Asia, Japan’s benchmark bucked the broader trend, on the back of the strength in the JPY, in the Asian session. GCC Most GCC markets closed higher yesterday, tracking gains in oil prices. In Saudi Arabia, Al Rajhi Bank continued its upward trajectory for the fifth consecutive session to end 1.9% higher. Saudi Arabian Mining Co rose 1.6%, tracking gains in base metal prices. Dubai’s DFM index rose 0.5%, led by gains in index-heavyweight Emaar Properties. Abu Dhabi’s benchmark ended 0.5% lower. Dana Gas retreated 4.5%, as investors booked profits, following the recent rally in the stock. Oman’s MSM index outperformed its peer indices led by gains in Industrial and Banking shares. Qatar QE index ended marginally higher yesterday. Trade volume and value increased, with Banking, Industrial and Telecom index accounting for 75.8% of the total trading value. Qatari institutional and retail investors were among the net buyers in yesterday’s trading session. Newly listed Investment Holding Group climbed 2.7%, after declining in its debut listing in the last week. Out of 45 companies listed, 40 exchanged hands, of which 22 declined, 14 advanced and 4 remain unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.9 1.3 4.2 31.6 DSM 20 15.6 1.5 3.8 27.5 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.5 1.7 3.3 725.1 UAE (ADX) 16.5 1.3 4.6 13.0 UAE (DFM) 24.0 1.3 3.9 28.6 Kuwait (KSE) 18.3 1.2 5.3 50.8 Oman (MSM) 11.5 1.0 5.5 6.7 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.7 0.8 6.0 0.3 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar General Ins. Commercial Bank Gulf Intl Services Qatar Gas Transport National Leasing Top Losers Al Ahli Bank Medicare Group Qatar & Oman Invest Qatar National Cement Dlala Holding Close Price 33.0 30.4 19.9 17.2 13.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.3 2.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 (29.8) (1.8) (36.0) (25.7) (13.2) (32.6) (24.3) (45.1) (28.8) (28.9) 30.0 73.2 8.4 66.5 17.6 (1.5) (3.0) (0.3) (1.5) (0.4) (4.8) (3.9) (3.2) (2.2) (2.1) (19.2) 16.4 (16.0) (14.9) (18.0) (23.5) (20.4) (25.7) (16.6) (25.1) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 1.1 16.7 38.9 NA 381.2 NM 90.5 11.1 6.7 NA 0.5 32.3 10.7 16.7 5.6 9.4 30.6 23.8 11.1 29.9 Qatar DSM Index 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 28/May 30.0 20.0 9,065.3 10.0 0.0 11/Jun 25/Jun 9/Jul Index Volume (mn) 23/Jul 6/Aug 20/Aug Index Value Closing Level 2,806.3 5,300.5 2,748.6 3,972.5 1,886.5 1,093.2 1,934.5 1D Change (%) (0.4) (1.2) 0.1 0.8 0.1 (0.5) 0.3 Buy (%) 48.7 27.7 76.4 10.0 13.6 23.6 Sell (%) 47.5 23.5 71.0 10.0 19.0 29.0 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 23 , 2017 expected to increase materially starting from next year as the government’s economic reforms start to take effect. (Source: Argaam) GLOBAL NEWS  US house price index increased 1.7% QoQ and 6.6% YoY in Q2-17. The housing market has been supported by a strong jobs market but a tight supply of homes in the face of healthy demand has pushed prices higher. (Source: Financial Times)  UK public sector net borrowing, excluding nationalized banks, was in GBP 0.2bn surplus in July-17. Public sector net borrowing surged by GBP 1.9bn YoY in four months to July-17 and stood at GBP 22.8bn.  Saudi Arabia is planning to transfer all of its ownership in airports to its main sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, to privatize them. Each airport would be set-up as a company under the Saudi Civil Aviation Holding, a spin-off from the General Authority of Civil Aviation (which will continue to be the regulator. No details were given on how PIF would sell stakes in the airports. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia based Red Sea Housing Services (RSHS) and Aecom have signed an MoU to collaborate in delivering innovative, modular affordable housing solutions on fast track basis. RSHS will manufacture and deliver the modular building units from its factory while Aecom will design, engineer and plan projects. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait based Warba Bank has acquired a property in Euless, Texas through joint venture partnership with Cortland Partners. Its equity investment amounted to USD 23.5mn, according to deputy chief investment banking officer. Since the beginning of 2017, Warba Bank's total real estate investments in the US have reached USD 70.0mn (Source: Guardian)  Japan's supermarket sales remained flat over the year in July-17 while it grew 6.2% MoM. Before store adjustment, supermarket sales slid 0.1% MoM. (Source: Morningstar)  The Turkish government’s gross debt stock stood at TRY 817.1bn at the end of July-17. Out of the total debt TRY 504.6bn was in local currency while TRY 312.5bn were denominated in foreign currency. (Source: AA)  The Turkish Treasury borrowed TRY 3.4bn from the domestic market in an auction. The five-year fixed coupon bonds were up for auction that will be settled on 23rd August-17 and mature on 17th August-22 with interest rate of 5.33%. (Source AA) (Source: Trade Arabia)  The National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) expects that Kuwait’s current account is expected to record a 3.0% to 4.0% surplus of the GDP in 2017 after a surge in oil prices. The country recorded first deficit in two decades in 2016. (Source: Mubasher)  Bahrain's fiscal deficit is projected to improve to 12.2% of GDP in 2017, from 17.8% in 2016 led by higher oil prices and continued reduction in spending, according to IMF. The fund however warned that Bahrain might need to raise its market interest rates to protect its currency and should refrain from having its central bank lend money to cover the government's budget deficit. (Source: Reuters)  Bahrain Bourse (BHB) and Securities & Investment Company (SICO) have signed an agreement to appoint SICO as an Authorized Sponsor in Bahrain Investment Market (BIM), which is an equity market for growth companies in Bahrain and the wider MENA region. (Source: BNA) GCC NEWS  Bank financing provided to the property and construction sector in the UAE increased by 6.2% YoY to AED 281.2bn (USD 76.5bn) during the H1-17. Funding provided to the property and construction sector comprised of 19.3% of the total credit of AED 1.5tn in H1-17. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai International Airport (DXB) recorded growth in passenger traffic of 5.9% YoY in July-17 to over 8.1mn. DXB received 51.1mn passengers during the first seven months of the 2017, which is up 6.2% YoY. Flight movements during July-17 reached 34,181, down 4.7% YoY. (Source: Trade Arabia)      Dubai International Airport recorded increase in cargo freight of 5.0% YoY in July-17 totaling 213,258 tons. During the first seven months of 2017, it handled a total of 1,516,169 tons of cargo, showing an increase of 2.1% YoY. (Source: Trade Arabia) The UAE's Minister of Infrastructure Development signed two contracts worth AED 1.0bn (USD 272.0mn) for construction and maintenance of the Al Montazi Residential Complex in Ajman with the China State Construction Engineering Company Middle East (CSCME) and Dabco Construction. The contract in a part of Sheikh Zayed Housing Program. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai based companies, Gulf Sotheby’s International Realty and SPF Realty have announced a strategic merger after the former bought a 51.0% stake in SPF Realty for an undisclosed sum. SPF Realty will rebrand and operate under the Gulf Sotheby’s International Realty brand. (Source: Trade Arabia) Abu Dhabi based real estate firm, Eagle Hills has signed worth AED 300.0mn (USD 81.6mn) credit facility with the National Bank of Fujairah (NBF) to finance the ongoing construction of The Address Fujairah Resort + Spa. The project comprises The Address Hotel and four residential buildings. (Source: Trade Arabia) OMV Offshore Abu Dhabi awarded the project management consultancy (PMC) services contract to US based KBR for the management of the front-end engineering design (Feed) phase of the Hail and Ghasha Development project in Abu Dhabi. The project was awarded on behalf of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Economic activity in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector will remain sluggish in the short-term before picking up next year as fiscal reforms kick in, Bank of America Merrill Lynch report stated. Non-oil revenues are QATAR NEWS  Qatar Islamic Bank inked QAR 1.6bn worth of financing deal with AlJaber Engineering (JEC) which aimed to support JEC’s current project to execute the design and construction of strategic food security facilities and warehouses at Hamad Port. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Quarries and Building Materials Company has inked an MoU with Oman Holding Company to set up a new firm in Al-Minazah which will manage new quarries for the extraction of Al-Jabro in Oman. (Source: Gulf Times)  Commercial Bank was awarded with “Best Small Franchise in Europe, Middle East and Africa” by Diners Club International at an event in Switzerland. (Source: Gulf Times)  Milaha, has introduced first direct reefer service between Qatar and Turkey which shall be initially operated with one vessel having a capacity of over 5,000 tonnes per voyage, and will cater mainly to temperature-controlled cargo and breakbulk, with the option of adding containers upon request. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s diversification efforts are bearing results with the nonhydrocarbon sector driving real GDP growth from 2015 to 2017, Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) Authority CEO said. He added that growth will continue as the Gulf crisis have not impacted hydrocarbon revenues of the country. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Airways (QA) has signed an interline partnership with Indian airline Vistara. This partnership will allows QA passengers to travel seamlessly to and from a wide range of cities within India across Vistara’s network via the airline’s existing 13 Indian gateways, and under a single ticket. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 23 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1792 USD/QAR 3.6415 109.5700 EUR/QAR 4.2941 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2854 JPY/QAR 0.0332 USD/CHF 0.9681 GBP/QAR 4.6808 USD/CAD 1.2565 CHF/QAR 3.7615 AUD/USD 0.7911 CAD/QAR 2.8981 NZD/USD 0.7279 AUD/QAR 2.8808 USD/INR 63.6050 INR/QAR 0.0573 USD/TRY 3.4949 TRY/QAR 1.0419 USD/ZAR 13.2249 ZAR/QAR 0.2754 USD/BRL 3.1630 BRL/QAR 1.1513 FX Commentary The USD remained almost unchanged yesterday, with the dollar index down by a mere 0.1%, due to lack of any major drivers or economic events. Caution also prevailed ahead of Jackson Hole symposium, wherein the investors will look for fresh signs over global monetary policy. The EUR traded lower against the USD, as ZEW economic sentiment data from Germany and Eurozone trailed market expectations in August-17. The CHF reversed its trend against the greenback, as demand for safe havens reduced. However, the losses were limited, as the Swiss trade surplus widened more than expectations in July-17. The CAD ended slightly lower against it US counterpart, led by weaker than expected Canadian retail sales data. However, gains in oil prices limited the losses in the currency. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.24 1.31 1.73 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.16) 1.92 2.04 2.26 2.43 2.91 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.36 1.46 1.80 2.24 2.0% EIBOR 0.96 1.08 1.31 1.53 2.13 BMIBOR 1.00 1.25 1.75 1.98 2.73 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.13% 1.32% 0.0% 2 Yrs 2.85% 3.08% 3.30% 1.78% 2.03% 2.21% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Qatar 4.37% 2.78% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 29.9 1.4 Turkey 176.3 (61.7) UK 20.3 (2.2) Brazil 205.0 (17.2) Germany 15.1 (9.5) Egypt 357.8 (58.9) France 28.6 (44.0) Abu Dhabi 58.0 7.9 Italy 147.9 (40.7) Bahrain 242.1 8.0 Greece 593.1 (529.9) Dubai 119.7 (1.5) Russia 149.1 (20.9) Qatar 96.7 (21.2) Japan 32.0 7.0 Saudi Arabia 93.0 4.7 2.0% 1.58% 1.99% 1.84% 1.0% 1.26% 1.00% 1.16% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 2.15% 1.40% 2.44% 1.68% 0.0% 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 09:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY Period Survey Prior Jul F - 26.30% 10:00 France 10:00 France Markit France Manufacturing PMI Aug P 54.5 54.9 Markit France Services PMI Aug P 55.8 56 10:00 10:30 France Markit France Composite PMI Aug P 55.4 55.6 Germany Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Aug P 57.6 58.1 10:30 Germany Markit Germany Services PMI Aug P 53.3 53.1 10:30 Germany Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Aug P 54.7 54.7 11:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Aug P 56.3 56.6 11:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Services PMI Aug P 55.4 55.4 11:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Aug P 55.5 55.7 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Aug-18th - 0.10% 16:00 Russia CPI WoW Aug-21st - (0.10%) 16:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Aug P 53.5 53.3 16:45 US Markit US Services PMI Aug P 55 54.7 16:45 US Markit US Composite PMI Aug P - 54.6 17:00 US New Home Sales Jul 610k 610k 17:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence Aug A (1.8) (1.7) Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 23 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.2 0.0 0.0 8.2 2.1 5.9 5.0 3.8 0.0 4.9 7.1 2.4 6.0 3.4 5.4 4.1 6.0 4.0 6.2 0.0 9.3 5.4 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.0 0.0 4.3 4.6 3.9 2.1 7.0 5.5 4.3 3.9 4.2 2.0 4.6 6.2 2.5 7.5 4.4 0.0 8.0 5.5 4.0 0.0 3.1 3.4 5.8 5.4 5.3 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.7 2.0 0.9 1.9 0.8 2.5 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.5 2.0 0.9 1.6 1.3 2.2 2.3 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.6 4.0 0.7 1.5 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.7 1.2 2.6 2.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.7 2.3 0.5 2.6 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.8 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 9.4 68.4 30.3 8.9 67.5 10.7 14.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.1 10.6 9.7 23.8 11.1 7.1 30.7 15.1 59.8 14.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.7 11.6 5.8 12.3 14.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 17.9 21.7 16.9 13.7 21.5 9.8 11.1 18.3 26.6 8.4 19.8 16.7 13.4 18.4 9.8 14.8 42.7 9.7 12.6 15.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.0 13.0 11.0 17.3 13.1 13.4 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.4 0.6 3.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.6 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.4 10.6 2.4 10.0 0.4 7.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.7 5.6 12.9 5.1 0.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 4.3 0.8 14.2 2.2 4.4 6.0 2.1 0.6 1.7 3.4 2.0 4.3 2.8 3.4 0.8 0.2 1.6 1.1 5.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 3.6 1.6 3.7 2.1 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 42.3 8.7 34.2 24.3 16.9 16.3 19.9 8.7 60.6 36.7 68.1 9.2 37.6 59.5 34.1 65.5 20.7 68.4 6.2 14.0 16.2 111.0 43.0 12.3 19.5 10.3 53.9 11.1 73.6 20.6 31.6 45.7 23.8 20.2 20.8 29.4 70.7 21.9 35.6 46.7 11.2 12.7 30.3 17.1 69.7 5.5 23.2 26.1 15.0 118.6 32.2 27.2 Stock Price (QR) 30.0 30.4 17.6 30.6 46.7 12.7 40.1 13.3 7.2 96.5 56.3 134.0 8.4 74.6 73.2 150.6 25.0 104.1 8.2 8.7 65.3 75.0 10.6 19.9 7.7 93.2 13.1 193.8 46.8 43.6 66.5 15.6 14.4 66.9 33.0 56.9 33.2 11.4 10.1 15.7 88.5 8.8 46.5 17.2 64.5 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ - Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4