GCC Daily Market Update - 20 February

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 20 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,732.2 25,219.4 6,770.7 7,247.7 12,385.6 5,256.2 115,882.0 22,149.2 31,115.4 3,199.2 33,774.7 NA NA NA (47.0) (66.4) (25.4) (629.0) 429.0 NA NA (236.1) NA NA NA (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) 2.0 NA NA (0.7) (3.2) (3.6) (2.6) (3.8) (6.1) (4.1) (3.1) (4.1) (5.4) (8.1) (6.1) 2.2 2.0 5.9 (5.7) (4.1) (1.1) 0.5 (2.7) 4.0 (3.3) (0.8) 9,106.8 7,528.2 4,579.5 3,298.1 6,711.0 5,007.5 1,332.7 1,640.5 3,691.8 27.3 19.8 (3.0) 6.0 (9.9) (6.9) 0.2 NA (3.5) 0.3 0.3 (0.1) 0.2 (0.2) (0.1) 0.0 NA (0.1) (1.1) (1.6) (0.5) (2.8) 0.3 0.2 (1.3) (1.5) (3.6) 6.8 4.2 4.1 (2.1) 4.7 (1.8) 0.1 3.2 1.4 65.7 61.7 2.6 1,353.2 324.9 0.8 NA NA 0.0 NA 1.3 NA NA 0.0 NA (5.2) (3.7) (12.9) 1.1 0.0 (2.1) 3.1 (11.6) 3.4 (3.2) Global US equity markets remained closed yesterday on account of a public holiday. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended 0.6% lower, amid thin trading volumes, led by weakness in German and French stocks. Steel manufacturing shares, bucked the trend to end marginally higher, despite reports that the Trump administration might implement new limits on imports of steel. The UK benchmark inched 0.6% lower, led by weakness in Consumer shares. In Asia, the Japanese benchmark rose 2.0%, led by weakness in JPY supporting export-oriented stocks. Equity markets in Hong Kong and China continued to remain close on account of Lunar New Year holidays. GCC GCC equity markets ended mixed during yesterday’s trading session. The Saudi Arabian benchmark ended 0.3% higher, backed by strength in Food & Staples Retailing and Utilities stocks. The Telecommunication firm Mobily reversed its direction with 4.2% gains, whereas Saudi Industrial Export rallied 10% for the 4th straight session. The Dubai benchmark edged 0.2% higher, backed by gains in DAMAC Properties, however courier firm Aramex edged 1.3% lower. The Abu Dhabi benchmark ended 0.1% lower, weighed by weakness in Waha Capital after the company announced to cut dividend to 15% in FY-17 from 20% in FY-16. Qatar The QE index ended higher during yesterday’s trading session on back of strong buying support from foreign institutional investors mainly in Realty, Transport and Insurance stocks. Trade turnover and volumes increased during the trading session, with Industrials, Banking and Real Estate sectors together accounting for about 88% of the total volume. Out of the 45 companies listed, 43 exchanged hands, of which 20 advanced, 18 declined and 5 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.7 1.3 4.7 54.1 DSM 20 14.3 1.3 4.5 34.9 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.9 1.7 3.2 819.2 UAE (ADX) 11.5 1.3 4.4 26.7 UAE (DFM) 11.6 1.2 5.3 47.9 Kuwait (KSE) 15.2 1.0 5.6 41.7 Oman (MSM) 12.1 1.0 5.2 1.8 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.3 0.8 5.9 0.7 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Cinema & Film Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Mesaieed Petrochem Ezdan Holding Group National Leasing Top Losers Qatar General Ins. Qatari Investors Group Dlala Holding Vodafone Qatar Qatar Islamic Insurance Close Price 22.7 13.8 14.8 10.0 10.9 2.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 10.0 7.0 5.0 4.8 3.4 (9.4) 4.1 17.5 (17.5) 1.8 45.1 33.1 14.0 7.5 58.0 (2.4) (1.6) (0.3) (0.2) (1.0) (5.0) (4.6) (2.1) (2.0) (1.7) (8.0) (9.5) (4.8) (6.5) 5.5 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. (17.6) 0.6 33.9 (33.3) 35.0 31.3 (4.6) 2,040.7 17.1 (36.2) 360.4 15.4 (30.1) 455.9 182.2 11.4 (40.7) (30.0) (17.9) (4.9) 1.6 234.6 297.7 336.2 20.2 12.9 16.3 21.3 NA 14.1 Qatar DSM Index 9,500 9,106.8 15.0 9,000 10.0 8,500 5.0 8,000 7,500 23/Nov 0.0 7/Dec 21/Dec 4/Jan Index Volume (mn) 18/Jan 1/Feb 15/Feb Index Value Closing Level 2,868.5 5,402.2 2,800.9 3,290.0 1,828.5 1,047.3 1,956.2 1D Change (%) 0.3 (0.0) 0.3 0.7 2.7 0.2 1.5 Buy (%) 44.3 19.9 64.2 15.2 20.6 35.8 Sell (%) 52.3 14.9 67.2 16.7 16.1 32.8 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 20 , 2018 featured digital wallet. This service will be available to anyone with a valid Emirates ID, even if they do not have an account with the bank. GLOBAL NEWS    The construction output in Euro area increased by 0.1% MoM and 0.5% YoY, driven by monthly increase in building construction output by 0.5% during the same period. (Source: Eurostat) The current account surplus of the euro area in December-17 stood at EUR 29.9bn, as goods and services account surplus stood at EUR 30.9bn and EUR 7.3bn, while secondary income deficit amounted to EUR 12.0bn during the same period. (Source: Eurostat) Britain and Australia would not be able to negotiate a bilateral trade deal if the former decides to stay in the EU’s customs union following Brexit, according to Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop. (Source: (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi based Waha Capital has proposed a cash dividend of 15 fils per share, equivalent to 15% of its paid-up capital, as per the board meeting held on February 18th. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi based Aletihad newspaper has partnered with The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) with a view to leverage WSJ’s reporting and analysis to increase its readership and improve its digital news offering. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Sharjah Investment and Development Authority has entered into a partnership deal with Kuwait based ‘Mabanee’ for developing a premium tourist and leisure project on the lines of its successful shopping mall The Avenues Kuwait. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Total footfall at Sharjah International Airport increased by 327,000 passengers annually to over 11.3mn passengers in 2017. The airport received 77,600 flights the amount of air freight totaled 148,312 tons during the same period as per senior management. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain Clear, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bahrain Bourse (BHB), has inked an agreement with Al Salam Bank-Bahrain, for offering myShare”, a card that will be available to BHB’s existing investors. The card will facilitate Bahrain Clear to credit cash dividends instantly into the shareholders’ card balance. (Source: Zawya)  Bahrain-based International Payment Services, has decided to implement Oracle M8 SuperCluster, which will incorporate a number of unique runtime security technologies to manage the electronic payment transactions market in the Middle East. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait is expected launch 20 major development projects totaling KWD 21.7bn (USD 71.6bn), which comprises a railway network project and waste management plant, as part of its 2018-19 development plan. (Source: Trade Arabia) Reuters)   Reserve Bank of Australia left its policy rates steady at 1.5%, while the policy makers showed confidence about domestic economy due to an uptick in the global economy and stated that wage growth was necessary to ensure recovery in domestic inflation, according to the minutes of central bank’s latest meeting. (Source: Reuters) Turkey’s building permits grew 16.2% YoY to 155,148 units during 2017, while the total value of building permits advanced 56.8% YoY to TRY 293.5bn during the same period. (Source: Turkstat) GCC NEWS  GCC countries are expected to issue a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in near future, as per top official from banking group Emirates NBD. (Source: Zawya)  UAE tops ranking across 9 economic indices, which covers economic affairs within a series of recently released global competitiveness reports and indices for 2017 and 2018. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai’s external food trade reached AED 70.2bn (USD 19.1 bn), while the imports touched AED 44.6bn, followed by exports with AED12.6bn and re-exports totaled AED 21.9bn during 9M-2017. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai Municipality in joint co-operation with Community Development Authority is set to start work on community centre project in Al Barsha region, which will be spread across an area of 5,500 sqm and is expected to be ready by mid-2019. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Emirates NBD is planning to place a bid in March-18 for acquiring Turkey based Denizbank, a wholly wholly-owned unit of Russia-based Sberbank, a deal with an estimated value of USD 4.1bn. (Source: Arabian QATAR NEWS  Chairman of Qatar’s Civil Aviation Authority held discussions with President of Directorate General of Civil Aviation of Kuwait to discuss ways to improve the joint cooperation in the field of of civil aviation and air transport, between the two countries. (Source: Gulf Times)  HH the Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani has issued three instruments of ratification, which includes the draft agreement on air transport between the governments of Qatar and the US. This also included an agreement of cancellation of visa requirements for holders of diplomatic and private or service passports between the governments of Qatar and Ethiopia. (Source: Gulf Times)  His Highness the Emir also issued Decree No 11 of 2018, which focuses on strengthening ties between Qatar and Somalia in the field of education, higher education and scientific research. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s Industrial Production Index (IPI) increased by 0.8% YoY driven by a 6.9% YoY rise in manufacturing index, as manufacturing of refined petroleum products grew 26.5% during the same period. (Source: Gulf Business)  Investment Corp of Dubai is in talks to raise USD 1.0bn from lenders, in order to partially repay its existing USD 2.6bn debt which would mature in June-18. (Source: Bloomberg)  Dubai based Konica Minolta Business Solutions Middle East has entered into a partnership agreement with CBK Soft. The partnership will help both the companies to offer technical expertise in workflow and document management for their regional customers. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Dubai based Majid Al Futtaim has signed a cooperation protocol agreement with Egypt’s Ministry of Investment and International Cooperation and the National Service Projects Organization, to open an additional 100 Carrefour stores in industrial zones across various governorates in Egypt. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai Based OSN has entered into a partnership deal with Netflix, whereby OSN customers would have the access to Netflix’s content through a new OSN Box, which is expected to be launched by Q2-18. Qatar and Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina have signed several MoUs in sectors like healthcare, education and coopoeration in youth field. Both countries also signed a twinning agreement for improving bilateral relations. (Source: Gulf Times)  Doha Cables, a fully owned subsidary of Senyar Industries Qatar Holding, has won two year contract worth QAR 1.24bn, from Qatar General Electricity and Water Corporation, for supplying low- and medium-voltage electric cables. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Insurance Group has partnered with Commercial Bank Qatar Masters, to become the official tournament insurer for the Qatar’s premier Golf tournament. (Source: Peninsula Qatar) Times) (Source: Trade Arabia)   Abu Dhabi based Kanoo Group has partnered with France based Armonia Group, for creating new event management and luxury hospitality staffing company. (Source: Arabian Business) First Abu Dhabi Bank has launched ‘payit’, the country’s first fully- 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 20 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2437 USD/QAR 3.6415 106.5900 EUR/QAR 4.5289 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4030 JPY/QAR 0.0342 USD/CHF 0.9295 GBP/QAR 5.1090 USD/CAD 1.2561 CHF/QAR 3.9177 AUD/USD 0.7913 CAD/QAR 2.8991 NZD/USD 0.7372 AUD/QAR 2.8815 USD/INR 63.7150 INR/QAR 0.0572 USD/TRY 3.7588 TRY/QAR 0.9688 USD/ZAR 11.6702 ZAR/QAR 0.3120 USD/BRL 3.2335 BRL/QAR 1.1262 FX Commentary Trading activity in the currency markets remained muted yesterday, as bourses in US, China, and Canada remained closed on account of public holidays. The EUR remained flat against the USD, amidst Eurozone finance ministers backed Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos to succeed Vitor Constâncio as the European Central Bank’s Vice President. The GBP ended lower against the greenback as the investors awaited the key UK wages data due this week for further cues on the Bank of England’s pace of monetary tightening. The JPY weakened against the USD, despite data suggesting that the Japanese exports and trade deficit data impressed market participants during January-18. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.45 1.47 1.59 1.88 2.39 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 2.20 2.30 2.45 2.70 3.00 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.60 1.69 1.90 2.29 2.0% EIBOR 1.20 1.37 1.60 1.86 2.66 BMIBOR 1.30 1.55 2.08 2.34 2.93 NA NA 1.69 1.88 2.38 KIBOR 2.64% 2.23% 4.79% 3.35% 3.44% 3.53% 2.67% 2.84% 2.91% 3.15% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 24.3 (5.6) Turkey 165.7 (13.5) UK 17.4 (2.9) Brazil 154.3 (50.5) Germany 11.0 (5.0) Egypt 274.9 (86.7) France 18.3 (3.8) Abu Dhabi Italy 101.2 (39.2) Greece 354.6 Russia 111.7 Japan 18.5 2.49% 2.92% 2.84% 2.77% 2.0% 1.56% 2.38% 2.19% 2.01% 3.00% 2.65% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 58.5 2.4 Bahrain 264.0 23.3 (247.1) Dubai 108.3 (16.7) (39.4) Qatar 88.2 (7.7) (10.4) Saudi Arabia 83.4 (10.2) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 09:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY Period Survey Prior Jan F - 48.8% 13:00 Germany 13:00 Germany ZEW Survey Current Situation Feb 93.9 95.2 ZEW Survey Expectations Feb 16 20.4 18:00 Eurozone 03:30 Japan Consumer Confidence Feb A 1.0 1.3 Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Feb P - 54.8 07:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index MoM Dec 0.4% 1.0% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 344.9 178.6 144.2 14.7 (32.1) (39.5) 64.7 14.5 35.2 13.8 4.9 8.8 Arabian Cement 248.2 3.4 52.2 97.0 275.1 228.8 City Cement Co Oman Telecommunications Co Bbk 145.2 5.3 37.2 23.8 (47.1) 23.8 Gulf Hotel Group 9.7 (5.9) 6.1 2.4 NA (16.1) Trafco Group NA NA NA 0.3 (23.7) 45.5 Bayan Investment Co Burgan Co For Well Drilling NA NA NA (0.0) (88.8) NA 11.5 32.9 0.0 0.6 3.5 3.0 Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 20 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 15th February 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 3.6 0.0 8.8 3.2 5.8 4.8 4.9 0.0 4.1 6.6 4.7 6.3 4.8 6.3 5.0 5.9 4.9 6.1 0.0 0.0 6.1 6.1 5.8 6.9 0.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.2 2.2 6.7 6.5 4.7 4.7 5.4 3.2 4.6 5.9 3.8 6.6 5.3 0.0 7.5 5.9 4.1 0.0 3.3 4.1 5.8 5.6 5.5 4.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.7 1.7 1.0 1.3 0.7 2.4 0.5 0.8 1.6 1.4 1.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 2.3 2.3 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.5 3.7 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.9 1.2 2.3 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.7 1.6 0.7 2.6 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.6 5.5 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.8 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 10.5 18.9 23.6 9.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 8.4 15.4 164.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.1 11.0 8.9 27.0 10.4 6.1 31.7 15.4 30.9 15.3 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 11.6 5.6 13.7 12.0 39.0 11.8 19.2 16.3 12.5 16.5 11.4 13.8 16.5 28.9 16.5 30.6 13.5 14.1 22.5 8.6 14.8 51.2 9.7 11.6 14.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.9 11.3 11.9 22.9 14.4 12.7 EPS (QR) 3.2 1.5 0.6 3.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 5.5 14.2 0.3 5.7 10.3 2.5 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 6.0 13.1 4.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 5.5 0.9 14.7 2.0 3.9 5.0 2.4 0.4 0.8 1.5 3.5 4.2 1.9 4.4 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.2 6.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.7 1.5 2.8 1.9 2.9 BV/Share (QR) 26.4 42.1 8.4 34.9 24.0 17.5 17.6 20.1 8.4 64.7 45.0 73.4 8.8 39.9 62.2 35.6 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 12.9 19.0 113.5 43.3 12.5 19.8 10.4 56.6 11.6 81.7 21.4 34.4 48.0 25.0 19.5 20.8 28.9 70.8 22.8 35.3 48.6 11.4 12.7 3.0 14.7 72.2 5.3 23.7 27.9 15.4 117.8 32.5 27.6 Stock Price (QR) 33.5 28.1 14.3 34.2 31.5 12.9 41.7 10.3 6.7 102.6 60.7 127.0 8.0 63.1 80.5 153.0 20.6 115.5 6.0 6.1 69.7 74.0 8.7 17.8 6.3 105.1 14.1 183.6 33.5 44.5 69.0 12.8 13.9 46.8 47.5 59.5 38.1 9.5 8.1 16.7 86.0 7.5 41.4 17.4 63.0 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4